The Ultimate Guide to Value Betting | Mercurius

If you're not finding arbs, you're not winning...

A friend popped over tonight and we discussed gambling in general and I had just posted the excerpt below in response to another comment in another thread and he thought it deserved it's own thread so here it is. Prove me wrong.
"I've been on reddit forever but new to sportsbook and this is my second arb posted. I haven't seen anyone else post them and this is a problem. I've noticed sportsbook is generally weaker than other sports forums around the web (SBR, EOG, Covers, etc.) and the lack of arbs is notable. The reason being that in order to win long term, you have to find value. A small percentage of the world does this by creating their own lines that are more accurate than the bookmakers (usually through modelling, stats analysis, advanced metrics, etc.). If you do this long enough and for large enough money, eventually you'll be blacklisted but more likely offered a job. This is the 1% of gambling. The other 10% of gamblers who make money do so by getting their value within weaker markets. Basically, you don't think you can beat the books so you join the best ones. 5dimes, Pinnacle, Matchbook... I create an average "true line" from the three of them and compare other books to them. If I can find better odds, I bet it without question. If my 3-book average true line is +150 and a weaker book is offering +180 then that's a 20% edge and over the long run, I will win 20 cents per dollar wagered. THIS IS THE ONLY WAY TO WIN.
Now, there are many disadvantages as well like getting limited or banned but for most small timers, this is the fool proof way to win money. When you do this, sometimes you come across disparities in odds so large, you can literally bet both sides and win money guaranteed. This is called arbitrage or "arb" for short. This is why I find it so troublesome that no one posts arbs is because it basically means no one's finding any, which means no one is looking. Bad news bears. Or maybe it's true that arbers like to keep their arbs a secret? Either way, I'll post a few more and see if there's any response but if not, I'll bounce."
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Arbitrage betting is a simple enough concept to where you don’t have to rack your brain over the matter. However, you’ll need to put more effort into arbing than just looking over sportsbooks and running numbers through an online tool. That said, here are some tips for how you can become a better arber. Use Tools to Find Arbitrage Opportunities Betting Limits Differ – Understand you can arb up to the maximum allowed bet. Between betting sites the limits are different. It is also not at all uncommon for books to give those they know are arbing personal limit collars. While everyone else can bet $5,000 on a game perhaps you can only bet $25.00. Let’s be realistic. The limiting and restricting of online betting accounts isn’t going to stop any time soon. So if you’re a price sensitive bettor, an arber or a consistent winner, you just have to accept the fact that any one of your betting accounts might be limited or closed at any point. Big Ten bowl lineup: Opening betting lines and complete TV schedule Updated Dec 10, 2019; Posted Dec 09, 2019 By Josh Slagter | [email protected] Value betting strategy is a pretty effective and that’s why it’s so popular among professional gamblers. What is Value Betting system? Value betting strategy is quite popular and its essence lies in the search for overvalued odds on a particular event. In other words, the punter needs to find in bookmakers’ lines much higher odd than the real probability of the outcome.

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