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##### An English Premier League Par Table - Week 7 (02/10/16)

During the last 3 of seasons I've created a "Par Table" for teams challenging for the EPL title that I update each week. With 7 weeks gone i'm now going to post a par table each week for this season.
Below is an explanation on how it works, with the Week 7 results afterwards.
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Background and why I created this???
There is general agreement that 88 points is the approximate total you aim at to win the English Premier League. That means you must pick up an average of 2.31 points every game (or 7pts across 3 games). In practice gaining and losing points will be clearly linked to the difficulty of the games. Difficult & easy games are not evenly distributed across the season.
I’ve believe that a Football League Table can be slightly misleading for most of the season. The official table shows the points gained but does not take into account the difficulty of the games played. At the end of the season this is irrelevant because things even out, but during the season there can be times where where it can be worth several points.
Several people have created 'alternative league tables', which attempt adjust the table during the season to take into account the difficulty of games played. Two that impressed me are, or were, produced on a Liverpool forum by users called 'Prof' and Barneystuta'. I've taken the term "Par Table" from Prof because I think it best describes the table.
Although I felt the Par Table approach was the best, I didn't agree with some of the 'raw data' that was used to create other 'comparative tables'. I decided to create my own Par Table using different 'raw data'.
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What is a 'Par Table'???
A 'Par Table' looks at every game a title challenger will play and allocates the points a Champion would most likely get from each game when achieving the 88pts.
So, for example, if Arsenal were on target to win the league they should pick up 3 pts when at home to Sunderland, and 1pt when away to Man City.
So each game becomes like a hole on a game of golf with a certain amount of points needed to stay on course for the final total of 88pts. Thats where the idea of "Par" comes from.
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So what's different, or notable, about my Par Table? Why did I feel the need for another version?
1. Other versions, that I've seen down the years, are based on an educated guess about how many points each game was worth. I decided to spend a bit of time calculating historical averages.
2. Allocating expected points to games requires a subjective decision on where the team is expected to finish the season. It doesn't need to be that accurate, but still difficult to remove personal bias. My system makes this judgement using betting odds for Winning the League, Top 6, Top 10, and Bottom 3. I also decided not to make this judgment until after the 6th game so that betting odds had settled down. After 12 game I'll go back and adjust for the final time.
Below is some of the data
And below is the Graph's for the previous three seasons.
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As it's the introductory post, I must give credit to the following
• Prof - for the term "Par Table", and making the value of it clear over several years
• Barneystuta - for making me think about using historical averages
• Statto.com - for being the only website I could find that had all the data, and in ways I could copy and paste into spreadsheets
.
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And with the intro finished here's the data for Week 7
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Below is how things stand in my Par Table as of Week 07 (02/10/16)
TEAM Game Score PAR SCORE (table position)
Man City -1.50 +1.75
Tottenham +1.00 +1.00
Liverpool +0.75 +1.00
Arsenal +0.25 -0.25
Chelsea +0.25 -3.25
Man Utd -2.00 -4.00
Everton -1.75 -4.25
Leicester -1.50 -8.25
(for example. Tottenham only had to pick up 2pts from their home game against Man City to meet par, but the got 3pts which give them a game score of +1.00)
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And here's the far more useful graph (link)
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Position as of Week 7
I've included only teams that are considered genuine competitors for the title (or top 4). Adding other teams creates a huge amount of extra work. Leicester dont look like they'll challenge for top 4, but I thought I should keep them in there.
It's the best start to a season since I started this three years ago. If you include Arsenal on -0.25, then four teams are playing to title winning form. In the previous three years only one team was over the 88pts line at this state of the season, and that was Chelsea during 2014/15
City have made an excellent start and are approx 2pts ahead of where they need to be, but are only a point ahead of Tottenham & Liverpool in the Par Table. Hopefully indicating an exciting season? The 'Par Table' has taken into account that Liverpool have had a hard start to the season.
The other notable difference from the Table Proper is that Everton are much further down, because the Par Table suggests that Everton have had an easier start and should have picked up more points.
Leicester are way off the pace, but I have to include the Champions.
I'm likely to carry on with this throughout the season and will try to post an update approx each Monday evening.

##### Vaultboy Investing: Weekend 5 Review and Lessons, Weekend 6 Preview (POTM, IF, SBC)

Scream Cards
Let's just discuss this first, because for alot of people, it's like we're waking up from the great depression. I lost 200k. It hurt. It hurt real bad. But I took it on the chin, and moved on, because it's easy to go nuts at times like this and make more stupid decisions and dig a deeper hole. I realized I'm in considerable profit for the year, and so what if I just basically bought a KDB and discarded him (essentially what I did with my coins by investing in scream players) - life is still good.
Anyways, my suggestion to you guys who did invest is, forget about it. We all went in knowing it was risky, and it didn't work out.
Look at your new coin totals, and come to terms with it. Start IF investing again, looking at SBCs (but in a less intense way, I'll discuss anon), and a more long term perspective.
Fuck the Halloween cards. Fuck them to hell. And let's never discuss them again.
SBCs
Now let's get to SBC's - as most of you know, this was an eye opening weekend - we learned some stuff - first of all, the SBC hype train is coming to a collapse.
It's not this thread, but the 5,000 like this all over the internet (I chose to do mine in a small forum to try and keep our discussions amongst a small select crowd) - and like sheep, we keep hurtling towards the edge of the cliff, the same information in hand, looking for the same pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
SBC trading is something different now - its basically picking up the cards and selling them before the SBC is announced, as people look to put them in their own clubs to do the SBC and some plucky traders try to amass a large quantity. This is what I'm going to do, but in a very limited way, the new games in buying players at minimum bid, but selling when you get a 30-40% return on investment.
Once in a while, SBC's will have unique possibilities, and that's what we'll focus on now, rather than the SBC's as a whole. There are many threads where you can get that now.
Last weeks performance: I'll keep it simple.
1. Aston Birmingham - made a killing on Birmingham, made a very small profit on Aston
2. Moscow Derby - made a killing on a couple of russian players, but a small profit only on everyone else.
3. Schalke Dortmund - only small profit on the players
4. South Africa Derby - made a bank on a couple, couldn't sell others for 200 coins.
Lost about 10k on the Saudi investments.
For those that want more details, I'll tell you why theres no point. This type of investing is now not worth the squeeze. Sure, anyone can tell you that Birmingham Aston villa will be a MM, but who can tell you which players will be discard and which will be 10k? Depends on EA's requirements, and they seem to wanna mix it up ALOT.
My suggestion for SBCs is this: read the basic threads all over reddit, and look for unique players - FOR EXAMPLE, if you are investing in this weeks MM, you may want to invest in Hellas Liga LBs, because there are only 4 of them, and only 1 gold one. i'm not saying make that investment, I'm saying look for unique traits like that.
So we're gonna move beyond SBCs, because like all savvy investors, we try and understand where the market is headed and adapt accordingly.
IF Investing
IF investing is our old and unglamorous friend. We used to call them over alot, but now we screen them, and don't send them birthday cards.
However, these are still the most reliable forms of profit. And I'm not saying the Hazards or the Sanchezs of the IF world, theres too much risk in that, I'm talking about their poorer cousins.
EG 1:
Sergi Roberto - bought in packs for 16k. Sold 2 weeks later 27k.
EG 2:
IF Donnarumma - bought in packs, 17k. Sold 3 weeks later 38k.
EG 3:
Mitrovic - bought in packs for 13k, sold 10 days later for 34k.
I'm talking about either picking up good IF's cheap, like Sergi Roberto (Barca, Spanish, position change, less than 16k when in packs) and holding for a week or two atleast. You can also pick up discard GOLD IF's that go for 10k, like Carlos Eduardo for example, as you won't lose money on them , and the upside of a few k is all but guaranteed.
Anyways, that's just a primer: Let's discuss this weeks IF's that look interesting.
1. Naby Keita - CM from RB Leipzig, Bundesliga
His NIF was one of the best cheap BuLi Players in the game, and his very generous IF upgrade is awesome. He's as close to Kante as you're gonna get for 14k, with less defending and more attacking capability.
Standout stats: 99 stamina 95 balance 86 inteceptions 84 vision 84 agression 82 agility
Current price as of now: 13,500-14,500 PS4
1. SIF Donnarumma
IF Donnarumma was one of the better keepers in Serie A, and he's now gotten 2 huge upgrades. Currently, he can be picked up for less than 19k, and being 6"6 in game with a bunch of specialities, he's a very OP GK. For reference, his FIF was at 45k, but keep in mind that was TOTW 1.
Standout stats: 89 reflexes 86 diving 6 foot 6
Current Price 19k
1. IF Mane
We all know this one well because of his stats. He's a riskier investment because of his price, but it's up to you to decide if 50k is an investible price with his stats. EPL has good options on the RW too.
Price at this time: 50k
1. IF Steven N'Zonzi
An absolute monster with very good stat upgrades on his IF. Probably the best CDM in the Liga Santander, and goes for 20k.
Standout Stats: 92 strength 89 aggression 88 ball control, 88 standing tackle, 88 short passing, 89 interceptions, 88 standing tackle, 86 shot power.
DAMN. That's alot of high 80's stats and I havent included them all. Plus he's french, and 2 French CB's in his club give him hyperlinks too.
Price as of now: 18k-19.5k
Anyways, those are my WATCH options for IF Investing this week, if you have any opinions, feedback in the comments so I can update this.
Now onto the main event.
The Big Risk - The Big Play
Where there is profit to be made - The EPL POTM. And this month, I think there will be a very attractive option - Eden Hazard.
This is why: http://imgur.com/a/3yGMP
There is only one other real contender, and that is Joe Allen who plays tonight. Walcott was in the running, but I think his injury absence yesterday kills his chances dead.
Anyways, back to Hazard - 3 goals, 1 assist 2 MOTM in 4 games is probably worthy of a POTM, adding that it's dragged chelsea back into the running for the title. Keeping in mind, that run of games included champions Leicester, Man U and Southhampton, it is much more attractive than Allen's games which includes sunderland.
Remember, this is a award that is OUT OF EA's hands. What is in EA's hand are the challenges for the card. That's what we'll focus on.
Now, I'm gonna assume that Hazard is going to take it. Unless allen scores a goal in a game stoke win, it's pretty much guaranteed.
Having a high rated card like Hazard raises a number of interesting questions - what exactly will EA do to make such a high value card attainable?
First, let's look back at what they did for the previous 2 POTMs:
1. Sterling - medium medium value card - requirements: A. Man City Players, 81 rating 100 chem B. Premier League, 83 rating 100 chem C. England, 81 Rating, 100 Chem
2. Son - Medium low value card - requirements: A. Premier League, 82, 1 player from Spurs, 100 chem B. Korea, 70 rating, 100 chem C. 11 Nations, 2 Leagues
I believe there was an IF player requirement somewhere, but I could be wrong.
Now based on that, what will they do for Hazard?
My Opinion:
A. Chelsea Squad 8x Rating, 100 Chem B. Belgium Squad 8x Rating, 100 chem + 1 IF card C. Lille Squad +1 IF card
Let's get some feedback in the comments so we can refine this with what y'all think could happen.
Some thoughts on the Challenges:
A. Chelsea should be a requirement, so players like 84 rated terry who goes for less than 2000 coins could be attractive.
B. Belgium has only 1 Gold RB and 1 gold LB if that means anything. Witsel is also the only good rated rare midfielder that isn't 25,000 coins (he's 800 coins). Because of the value of the SBC card, there will be probably be a requirement like a IF card here - the price makes sense too - IF Benteke and IF Carassco are the two most affordable IF's here.
C. Lille sounds weak to me, and this is the squad I'm least certain about. An IF requirement here could have Corchia (from Lille) and Pallois (cheap discard) from Ligue 1.
D. A 11 nations hybrid with 2/3 Informs?
The POTM will usually be annouced 2nd week of November for those that are wondering.
Also, keeping in mind it'll be a high value card, the correct investments will def pay off because if people wanted SON badly, imagine how many people want an IF Hazard. And most people will be ok with IF hazard untradeable, because it's one of the best in the game.
Let me know how you guys did and what you guys think about the questions above.
UDPATES / EDITS
For the BPL Challenge, that will be there regardless of the player selected, John Terry is the regular go-to guy. He's under 2k coins right now on open bid, I think that's a good investment price for a 84 rated chelsea CB. If there is a Chelsea challenge, he will be a even better buy. Cahill at 2.3k is not bad also (83 rated)
For the potential 11 nations plus IF challenge as they did with Son, the best league is Bundesliga. They have 3 informs for less than 14k (Jarstein - Norway GK - 11k / Bentaleb - Algeria CM - 11k / and Keita - Guinea CM -14k) all from unique rare nations. I'm saying 3 IF's because it could be something crazy like 2 or 3 informs plus 11 nations for a Hazard card - the only league where you can do this cheaply is the BuLi - in addition they have a great number of players from random countries to fill out the rest of the squad.
For the Belgium Challenge - there is only 1 gold RB and 1 gold LB. There is also only 1 CM 82 rated that doesn't cost 20k, Witsel for discard pretty much. The next option down is a 79 rated nr. Pick up atleast 1 of each of high rated players to keep in your club - you can either sell them before the vote is done in the hype, or keep them for the challenge - eg of high rated cheap players (vertonghen, mertens both 83 and under 3k coins for NOW).
UPDATE AFTER ALLEN'S FINAL MATCH OF THE SEASON (POTM analysis)
Ok, so Allen played last night and notched up 2 assists. Bony scored 2, and Stoke won 3-1 over Swansea.
Does this affect the POTM chances for Hazard? Well, yes it does. Until yesterday, it was a foregone conclusion that Hazard would take it - today it's more of a tussle.
A note on POTM investing: Everyone needs to understand investing by nature is risky. If our judgement is wrong, we will pay a financial price. The reason I make these posts is not to tell people what to do, but to create and generate a discussion amongst the people on this group, so that over time, we can refine my basic thoughts into a crowdsourced base of opinion and knowledge. Don't invest if you're scared of losing, and if you lose, don't stay depressed too long. Sometimes we make alot of money (Birmingham, Celta Vigo etc etc), and sometimes we lose (Rapid Wien Derby, Saudi El Classico) but as long as we win more than we lose, it's a game worth playing.
Back to our discussion:
let's break this down into the main points we have to consider;
Do I still believe Hazard can take it? A simple answer, I believe so. Here is why
A. He should have won it in august, and won the popular vote, but lost to sterling who came in third in the popular vote, but won the managers and "experts" votes. When a player is playing consistently well, I think this makes "experts" consider them in a more positive light. So what I meant to say here is: Hazard should have won in August, now he's going to be back on the experts table again for a second time. I'll bet this time they don't deny him. Source: http://weaintgotnohistory.sbnation.com/2016/9/10/12870522/eden-hazard-raheem-sterling-august-player-of-the-month-premier-league
B. The competition he faced was of a much higher caliber. Let's compare Allen and Hazard match by match.
Match 1: Hazard vs Hull Chelsea Win (match rating 7.81 0G0A) Allen vs Man U Stoke Draw (match rating 7.75, 1 Goal)
Match 2: Hazard vs Leceister City Chelsea Win (match rating 8.18 1 Goal) Allen vs Sunderland (Match Rating 8.92 2 goals MOTM)
Match 3: Hazard vs Man U Chelsea win (match rating 8.91 MOTM 1 goal) Allen vs Hull Stoke Win (match rating 7.36 yellow card 0G0A)
Match 4: Hazard vs Southhampton Chelsea Win - Southhampton has one of the best EPL defences (match rating 8.87 MOTM 1G 1A) Allen vs Swansea (match rating 8.64 MOTM 0G2A)
Lets break it down like this:
Hazard played 4 games, 3 of them came against the reigning champions, man u and southhampton who have a crazy defensive record at home. Chelsea won all 4 games.
Allen played 3 of the worst teams in the EPL - Hull, Sunderland, and Swansea. He had one high profile match against Man U, but stoke didn't win, it was a draw. Stoke won 3 drew 1 in the month.
Add to this that Stoke have just climbed to mid table because of Allens great streak, while Hazard has taken chelsea to the top 4. I guess the way I'm trying to explain it is this: Allen is a shoe in for Stoke player of the month, but has he done enough to merit EPL POTM? 3 games against the worst in the EPL and a mid table standing vs 3 games against very strong competition and a top table standing...
AND FINALLY THE WHOSCORED MONTHLY RATINGS for October: http://imgur.com/a/hQAKo
Hazard is the winner here 8.4 - 8.2 over the month (dates counted in their analysis included in the picture)
WALES WARNING Also a word on investing in wales players. Most wales players are already price fixed - investing in them now is very risky. THERE IS NOT A SINGLE WALES PLAYER ON THE MARKET BRONZE SILVER OR GOLD FOR LESS THAN 800 Investing in Welsh players now is VERY VERY RISKY. A Joe Allen card will not be worth these prices, considering his IF is going for 15k. And his POTM, if it comes, will be slightly less OP than his IF (as we have POTM SON as an example)
As Fergie used to say, this is now squeaky bum time - all we can do is look at past data, analyze the stats and make our best judgement. Let me know your thoughts below.

##### An English Premier League Par Table - Week 6 (20/0915)

Last season I created a "Par Table" for teams challenging for the EPL title that I updated each week. With 6 weeks gone i'm now going to post a par table each week for this season.
Below is an explanation on how it works, with the Week 6 results afterwards.
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Background and why I created this???
I’ve believe that a Football League Table can be slightly misleading for most of the season. The official table shows the points gained but does not take into account the difficulty of the games played. At the end of the season this is irrelevant because things even out, but during the season there can be times where where it can be worth several points.
Several people have created 'alternative league tables', which attempt adjust the table during the season to take into account the difficulty of games played. Two that impressed me are, or were, produced on a Liverpool forum by users called 'Prof' and Barneystuta'. I've taken the term "Par Table" from Prof because I think it best describes the table.
Although I felt the Par Table approach was the best, I didn't agree with some of the 'raw data' that was used to create other 'comparative tables'. I decided to create my own Par Table using different 'raw data'.
.
What is a 'Par Table'???
There is general agreement that 88 points is the approx total you aim at to win the English Premier League. That means you must pick up an average of 2.31 points every game (or 7pts across 3 games). In practice gaining and losing points will be clearly linked to the difficulty of the games. Difficult & easy games are not evenly distributed across the season.
A 'Par Table' looks at every game you'll play and allocates the points a Champion would most likely get from each game when achieving the 88pts.
So, for example, if Arsenal were on target to win the league they should pick up 3 pts when at home to Sunderland, and 1pt when away to Man City.
So each game becomes like a hole on a game of golf with a certain amount of points needed to stay on course for the final total of 88pts. Thats where the idea of "Par" comes from.
Each week I'll post what a team should have got, and how they are doing so far.
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So what's different, or notable, about my Par Table? Why did I feel the need for another version?
1. It appeared Prof's system (and others) were based on an educated guess about how many points each game was worth. I disagreed with the allocated points and decided to spend a lot of time calculating historical averages.
2. Allocating expected points to games requires a subjective decision on where the team is expected to finish the season. It doesn't need to be that accurate, but still difficult to remove personal bias. My system makes this judgement using betting odds for Winning, Top 6, & Bottom 3. I also decided not to make this judgment until after the 6th game so that betting odds had settled down. Then after the 12 game I went back and updated for the final time.
Below is some of the data
And below is the Graph's for the previous two seasons.
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As it's the introductory post, I must give credit to the following
• Prof - for the term "Par Table", and making the value of it clear over several years
• Barneystuta - for making me think about using historical averages
• Statto.com - for providing all the data, and in ways I could copy and paste into spreadsheets
.
.
Below is how things stand in my Par Table as of Week 06 (20/09/15)
TEAM Game Score 6wk form PAR SCORE
Man City -2.75 +2.00 +2.00
Man Utd +1.25 -1.25 -1.25
Arsenal -1.50 -4.00 -4.00
Tottenham +0.50 -5.00 -5.00
Chelsea +1.00 -5.50 -5.50
Liverpool -2.00 -5.75 -5.75
.
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Position as of Week 6
With the necessary update on how it works, I can do what I'd normally do, and update for the current week. Here's the graph that makes it easy to see [link]
City are further ahead than the 'Table Proper' because Utd have had an easier run of 'par games'. The table below shows the points each team should have if they were playing to par at the beginning of the season [link] Due to the games they've had, Man Utd should be approx 2pts ahead of City & Chelsea.
Chelsea much discussed bad start is still bad in the par table, but not as bad because they had the hardest start and were expected to be behind everyone else.
If you look at the graphs for the two previous seasons you can see runs of good and bad form are common, but Chelsea have given themselves a difficult task
I'm fairly sure I'll carrying on with this throughout the season and trying to post an update approx each Monday evening.

##### AndrycApp's EPL Par Table (Game Week 20)

I've created a "Par Table" for teams challenging for the EPL title that I'll be updating each week.
Below is how things stand in my Par Table as of Game Week 20
Team Par Score
Chelsea 1.25
Man City -0.75
Man Utd -10.25
Southampton -10.75
Arsenal -12.25
Tottenham -12.75
West Ham -16.25
Liverpool -18.50
And here it is a a graph for the first 20 games (link)
What is this Par Table??
I’ve always felt that a Football League Table can be slightly misleading for most of the season. The official table shows the points gained but does not take into account the difficulty of the games played. The impact of ‘difficulty of games played’ will even out at the end of the season, but during a season there can be times where where it can be worth several points.
Over the years several people have produced data, or “alternative league tables”, which attempt adjust the table during the season to take into account the difficulty of games played. I’ve always tried to follow them. For instance last season user fourlions created a 'Comparative Table’ (link). Two others that impressed me are, or were, produced on a Liverpool forum by users called "prof" and "barneystuta". In fact I've taken the term "Par Table" from Prof because I think it best describes the table.
A few weeks ago I spotted an inconsistency between Prof's table and the one produced by Barneysatu, one showed Chelsea about 6pts ahead and the other showed City about 2pts ahead. Instinct told me City might be officially level with Chelsea but should be behind on Par Points due a a run of easy games. So I decided to create my own "EPL Par Table", which fortuitously confirmed my view and has City behind by 2pts
So what's different, or notable, about my Par Table?
It appeared Prof's table was based on an educated guess about how many points each game was worth. I decided to spend a lot of time calculating the historical averages, but even then I then had to slightly adjust things to make things fit... My par table assumes that to win the league you'll need 88pts (based on a historical average). Those 88pts get allocated between the 38 games to be played taking guidance from historical averages. (sorry if thats a bit complicated). Allocating expected points to teams required me make a judgment on where they'll likely finish in the table. This was done using betting odds and pundits views. Since I've started at Game Week 20, the prediction is based on last week odds. Here is some the raw data
• The teams ordered by difficulty and the points required to play each team (link)
• List of the games to be played by the top teams and the points needed for each game (link)
• Graph for 2013/14 season (link)
I must give credit to the following
• Prof - for the term "Par Table", and making the value of it clear over several years
• Barneystuta - for making me think about using historical averages
• Statto.com - for providing all the data, and in ways I could copy and paste into spreadsheets
• fourlions for creating the Comparative Table last season.
I'm fairly sure I'll carrying on with this throughout the season and trying to post an update approx each Monday evening.
tl;dr I’ve created a table, which I'll update weekly, showing how English Premier Leagues teams competing for the title are doing based on my partially subjective assessment of the difficulty of the games played. This post explains how my “EPL Par Table” works.