The Chief “My father always used to tell us boys, "Treat everybody the way you'd like to be treated. Give them the benefit of the doubt. But never let anyone mistake kindness for weakness." He took the Golden Rule and put a little bit of the North Side in it.” — Art Rooney Jr. on his father What a man “The Chief” was.. Just a man of the people, no other way to put it. A kind hearted, sports loving, and gambling degenerate we can all relate too. Before paying the franchise fee of ONLY $2,500 ( I now know without a doubt, the first thing I’m doing with a time traveling machine) The Chief was a boxer in college that qualified for the Olympics. Played minor league baseball and served as the Player-Manager, awhile leading the team in several stat categories. Then, he starts playing Halfback/Manger with two semi-pro football teams in Pittsburgh that he eventually takes over, combines the two teams and named them after himself. Just out there making moves.. This team would later become the pro franchise after only paying $2500... This guy was basically who Jackie Moon had wet dreams about. Chief Rooney’s Legendary Day at the Track Just three years after purchasing the team, The Chief hit a parlay at the Saratoga race track of 160,000!!Using an inflation calculator that comes out to 2.9 Mill in 2020! Now there is some dispute about the actual number, some reports was it was close to 250,000. Either way, The Chief loved the ponies and that’s a shit ton of money back then. Obviously, he used those earnings and invested it into his football team and other ventures. Allegedly, The Chief NEVER bet on Steelers games. It was only the ponies, I actually choose to believe that. I think he loved the team to much to risk losing it. Source -“Rooney`s connection with the operation surfaced during the trial of Paul Hankish, 58, whom the government said started running a bookmaking operation in Bridgeport, Ohio, in 1957.” - “U.S. Attorney William A. Kolibash wrote in a statement released Tuesday that a Hankish associate took out-of-state bets over the telephone ''from a Pittsburgh-based group headed by Art Rooney, who they code-named No. 42.'' - “No. 42'' placed bets with a Mississippi and Texas bookmaker totaling $100,000 a weekend, the statement said. But the statement referred to several No. 42s and it was unclear whether it referred to Rooney.” - “The Hankish associate, Norman Farber, said he met Hankish in 1957 after setting up a small-time horse betting operation. This was the middle man for the horse bets. - “Mr. Farber had a gambling connection with Mr. Rooney not involving football, Mr. Rooney was not betting on Steelers games.'' It wasn’t always sunshine and rainbows for our Chief, the Steelers franchise went through some rough times. Before hiring Noll... One playoff game in 36 years. But, that never broke his love for the organization and players. Chief, would invite the grounds crew to the team box for dinners. This man treated EVERYONE with the same level of respect. It’s easy to see why the Rooney rule exits. -Howard Cosell on the Rooney’s, “The Rooneys are the finest people, the people I most respect in American sports ownership. I've always felt that way. And there's no reason to change. They are people of integrity and character. The way they put the Steelers together, to hire a man like Chuck Noll, to emphasize the team concept. I have a whole transcendental feeling for the Steelers and the Rooneys and Pittsburgh. — Howard Cosell, October 1982 -Inviting a groundskeeper up to the owner's box for dinner, “I'll never forget the way he introduced me, 'This is Ralph Giampaolo, a member of our organization.' Not a member of our ground crew. Not some rinky-dink bum. But a member of 'our organization'. As far as [Curt] Gowdy knew, I was vice president of the team. Mr. Rooney made me feel 10 feet tall.” We should all live by the North Side Golden Rule. If Art Rooney isn’t in your top 10 list to have a beer with after this... what are you doing with your life?
This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here. NFA. DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino The Big Picture
Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn 
Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average. Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here. Digging Deeper DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack. For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% ). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range. This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later. Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform. So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino. As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform. Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino. Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth 
Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years .
They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies 
On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability
Things to look for when going Long - Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized - Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability - Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate . This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% 
Share Price Target Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73 Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10 Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47 These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base. At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs. Share Price drivers / considerations: - Continued multiple expansion
Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year
Management Team Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards. His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around. Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys. Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward. TL;DR: If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level.  Susquehanna Research – U.S. Online Gambling 6/27/19  https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302  https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d  Goldman Sachs Research – DKNG Initiation 5/19/20 https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php  https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
Made my First Predictive MMA Spreadsheet - Check out it's Picks!
Trying to get into sports betting more seriously, I know MMA is hard to predict, and these calculations could be far more detailed, and are most likely not reflective of the actual odds of the fights, but it is more of an in-depth prediction into how the fighters match-up. I already have ideas of what I could add for more data, but this is a first draft, and I limited it to 16 statistics and assigned values to the stats to create a score for each fighter. I want to put it's predictions on here so I have some accountability for it's picks. Martin Day vs Davey Grant : Grant (53% Probability) Karol Rosa vs Vanessa Melo: Rosa (71% Probability) Raulian Paiva vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov: Paiva (61% Probability) Marcin Tybura vs Maxim Grishin: Grishin (58% Probability) Leonardo Santos vs Roman Bogatov: Santos (63% Probability) Makwan Amirkhani vs Danny Henry: Amirkhani (51% Probability) Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Muslim Salikhov: Salikhov (52% Probability) Volkan Oezdemir vs Jiri Prochazka: Prochazka (53% Probability) Amanda Ribas vs Paige Vanzant: Ribas (62% Probability) Jessica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas: (Namajunas 51% Probability) Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo: Petr Yan (51% Probability) Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway: Volkanovski (51% Probability) Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal: Usman (54% Probability) A few things to mention about these probabilities;
They use a limited set of 16 statistics I considered to be important to compare.
Some fights should be a higher probability, but came out lower because of a lack of detailed stats available, for example, Amanda Ribas vs Vanzant, Ribas is a huge favorite but only has 62%, I couldn't find a lot of her detailed stats, lowering the margin.
However, it's semi-important to note that when 1 fighter didn't have a stat available, I didn't track the other fighters either to balance it out.
My goal for draft 2 is having more statistics to input to increase the data set and hopefully see a more confident spread in the probability.
Finally, please DO NOT use these predictions to model any bets on, I don't want my first trial to be responsible for people losing money. I am somewhat satisfied with how this turned out for a first attempt, but I won't be putting money on most of these picks.
Post-Fight Update - 12/13 - A 92.3% success rate. Including I believe 3 betting underdog picks correct with Grant, Salikhov and Prochazka. I used these predictions to piece together a 4 fight parlay, I selected Rosa, Ribas, Volk by decision and Usman, and won with a 4.4x return. Aiming to run this format through previous cards throughout this week to see the accuracy using a larger sample size.
I am tired of losing. I am tired of feeling like a sack of shit. This is my story. I moved to Canada from India back in 2015, I was ready to make it big in life and thought life was going to be amazing after moving to Toronto. Enrolled in a post graduate program at a college in Toronto, life was fine as a student. I had never gambled in my life but I was curious about it as I always saw odds being displayed while watching my favorite sports(MMA, Soccer, etc) on TV. In August 2015, I opened an account on a Canadian sportsbook (Sportsinteraction), and I was a low limit player. I would bet on Soccer and MMA. I would bet like 20 bucks on crazy parlays, but it was just once a week so I never felt bad about it. Started dating my wife in 2016 and kind of forgot about gambling for a while as love is something you don't come across all the time. Started gambling again in 2017 and was still a low limit player. In 2018, I realized that I was getting tired of the rat race and I wanted to make big money so I thought maybe gambling would be the way to do it as I was good at predicting outcomes for the sports I was interested in. Problem is , I was always betting on parlays, as greed always beat the shit out of my practicality in my head. I would always go for the higher odds and I would end up Losing. My bets increased from 20$/week to 300$/week. I was still okay because I had a steady job and I had about 40-50k in savings. Then I made the worst decision of my life, I moved from Toronto to a small city in Atlantic Canada (Saint John,NB). New garbage city, no friends, a new high stress job (transportation planning), I wanted to make fast money and buy my wife a house(been her dream since she moved to Canada as well). 2019, I made 60k from my job, I didn't see a single penny from this income end up staying in my bank account for too long as I would gamble 500-1000$ a week on stupid parlays and never win. When I would bet on 1-2 games with heavy favorites, I would still lose as the underdogs would pull off massive upsets and at those moments I would think maybe god/the universe is out to get me. I still had 40-50k left over in savings from the previous years when 2020 came about. I thought to myself that maybe this is the year that i get it all back. Then the coronavirus hit and all sports stopped, i didn't know what to bet on anymore. That's when I discovered blackjack, I don't trust RNG so I thought I would play on the live tables and make some cash. The first two weeks were bad. I lost around 15k in those two weeks and I thought I should stop. But the pain of losing 30-40k in the past 3 years and the idea that I could somehow recover those losses convinced me to give it another shot. I developed a strategy and started playing again. My strategy worked, I made 1500$-2000$ per day and I was up to 20k, I was thinking to myself "I can make 60k per month from this shit". I was going to withdraw 15k the next day, but somehow thought to myself maybe I should play another hand before I withdraw this cash, I lost a couple hundred bucks and wanted to get it back, kept on losing for the next two hours and then lost all of the 20k I had make in the past week. I was so pissed, in those moments you feel like this is a cruel joke being played on you and someone is watching from somewhere and laughing at you. April, May and now June. Every day of the past three months I have been depositing 300-1000k into my account and gambling on blackjack trying to win my money back. Some days, I make 2-3k and end up losing it all a day or two later. I hate myself and feel like shit. My wife keeps reminding that we have to buy a house in Toronto next year as she is sick of this small town and wants to move back to the big city and doesn't want to pay rent anymore. She has no clue that I only have 100$ left in my checking account. I do have some savings in my retirement account (10k) that I cannot touch unless I go to the bank and I don't plan on doing that. But I have effectively destroyed my life. I could have been having 100-130k in savings right now but I am sitting here alone in my kitchen, with nothing left in my bank account. I have been having vivid suicidal thoughts for the past two months and I am very close to writing a suicide note for my family and friends. I don't know how I could break the news to my wife about my gambling addiction as she would probably not be able to handle such devastating news. I have a 2yr old son with her and the only reason I haven't killed myself yet is because of the guilt I feel when I think of abandoning them. I have become a shell of who I used to be, I used to be funny, smart and I could always make people feel comfortable in my presence. Now i don't interact with anyone and am always glued to my phone, gambling my money and possibly my life away. I don't know what to do anymore. This could be the end of my story.
Psycho Betting and Stats 301-Degenalytics Question
!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!! Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8 If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 📰📜Story📜📰: I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose? Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%). I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100. Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited. With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday. How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U). 🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪: I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery. If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers. Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!! Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification Here is a Nice Calculation to do: 📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:** Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios. Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover. In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds. If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes. I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports. I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam. BONUS Questions: A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing $2.00 tug of war with the bookie. B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor. C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting: i) He loses bet 1 for about $20. ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5. iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak iv) 5 game losing streak v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.] C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio. The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table. In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have: A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly. B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was. C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ⚖Conclusions⚖: The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?
The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.
Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.
They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.
During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bio:😎📚🎓👨🎓 I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials. Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community. I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind. Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later. Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calling me out:(Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎) If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on. Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Social Media📺🎬 Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission. Here it is for starters: June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday) June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday) June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win? Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5 All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media Discord: ????? To be solved. Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on. The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20 Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20 Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.
I’ve been reading posts on here for the last couple months and I wanted to share my story as well. It’s been hard to really share with anyone, but I know that it will help people. Always loved sports, I got into gambling starting in December, I loved hitting college basketball and the nba spreads...even got into MMA and made good money... won everything I lost in January and more on a card....then it started to unravel. I raised my credit limit to above my weekly paycheck, I figured I was making so much doing that that I could even have a second book, I thought I could DOUBLE my money! I then didn’t have a winning week for what felt like months no matter how many bets I won I would always self destruct, it got to a point where I’d care more about my parlays than my social life, the gym, anything I really cared about. should of realized it was bad when I owed both books and lost money on a trip to AC, all in the same weekend. I lost my motivation, I was selling my valuebles to pay off these debts...I couldn’t stop myself, I was playing blackjack on my breaks, live betting during work, checking the scores non stop, I must of lost close to 10 grand.... whole months worth of pay gone because of this disease. I knew I hit rock bottom when I started betting on esports in late March after most sports had shut down. It crushed me, I wasn’t sure what was wrong with me? Why would I keep doing this? Why am I throwing all my hard work out the window? I’d work so hard to save my money and I literally threw it away when there weren’t real sports to bet on...losing hundreds on video games sickened me but I still did it. Being given an opportunity to save up money or invest it and I blew it all gambling? I was at an all time low, dark dark thoughts entered my head more frequently because I felt like I was throwing my potential away, I felt like I couldn’t do anything right because I crippled by this addiction. Realizing I had an opportunity to use that money to make my life better, and missing out is a feeling I may never get over for as long as I live. I then stumbled upon this thread and read the stories of others and knew that I wasn’t alone in this fight. The power of people coming here to tell there stories moved me to try and change for the better, It takes a lot to face your problems head on, and so many of these helped me to make a difference in my life. I wanted to share mine to try and help someone else make the decision to try and make that change. I had a few tiny relapses but the days of me throwing away my paycheck are OVER, I haven’t lost money gambling since mid April and while it’s not much I am very proud of myself. Though I will probably bet a little bit when sports come back, I know my journey to battle addiction is far from over and my next step is to try and watch sports without having money on the game. Thank you to the brave souls who have put there stories out there, our journey to beat this may never end, but you’re never alone in this battle, you helped me and I will always be thankful for this thread.
It is in one's best interest to know all your options before making a bet. The straight bet is more of a long haul type of bet. You are not going to rack up the big dough right away but over time, it will add up. The parlay bet is more of hope for bigger payouts quicker. These are more of a weekly bet. The teaser bet can be used in several ways. You won't make a ton on teasers because the payouts are lower but they are a good way of "hedging" your bet. "Hedging" will be explained in more detail later. Finally, the round robin bet is a mix of straight bet payouts and parlay payouts. They can keep you in it for the long haul or can be a real quick payout. The following explanations should help you make the right choice and hopefully you will find a betting option you really enjoy. The first and easiest football betting option is the straight bet. Let me rephrase that, making the bet is simple, picking which bet you like is even simpler if you have the right picks or knowledge. The straight bet is exactly like it sounds...straight. You find a team or an oveunder you like and you just bet that. It's a one-team bet. For example, you like the Bengals -5 over the Texans. You would go down to the casino or make an Internet bet and tell the Sports book you would like 50 units on the Bengals. If they cover, you will receive you original bet back plus another 45.5 units. Same thing goes if you like an oveunder. Say you like the over in the Chief's game, which is 50. You would make the same bet as you would have with the Bengal's game and the payout is the exact same. The straight bet is a betting option where you are in it for the whole season. This isn't the biggest moneymaker bet books have to offer. This is a bet where if you stay in it for the long haul, the profit will eventually start to show. Most handicappers choose this betting option. The money line betting option is a lot like the straight bet with just a little twist. When you bet a football game on the money line, this involves a simple bet on the true winner of the game without a point spread. Lets go back to the example we used in the straight bet. In the straight bet, we liked the Bengals -5 over the Texans. With the money line bet, we could make two choices. We could bet that the Bengals are going win the game or the Texans are going to win the game. No point spreads, just win the game! That is called the money line bet. There is a difference between the two choices though. If you decide to bet on the favorite, you must bet more than you stand to win. The reason for this is you are taking away the point spread and making it easier to win the bet. If on the other hand, you decide to choose the underdog, you are saying the underdog is going to win the game not just cover the spread. In this case, you stand to win more than you bet. The next betting option is the parlay. Easy to do, a little harder to win. The parlay is a way to bet multiple games with the hope of a big payout at the end if all of the games win. The point spreads for the games are just the same as the straight bets so nothing changes there. For example, say you like the Dolphins +2 against the Eagles and the over in the game at 37. You would go to the sports book and tell them parlay and the Dolphins and the over for 50 units. If both bets cover you will receive your 50 units back plus an additional 180 units. A much bigger payout than the standard straight bet but again, a little harder to win. If just one game doesn't win or draw you lose the whole bet, that's why it's considered a little harder. With a parlay, you can bet more than two bets. Two bets is the minimum and depending on the casino the maximum amount of bets will range from 5 to 8. Of course with the more teams you bet, the higher the payout. Here are a few of the payouts. For a three-team parlay, the payout is 6 to 1 plus you original bet. That means if you put 50 units on three different teams or oveunder you would get back 300 units plus your original 50. For a four-team parlay, the payout is 10-1 plus your original bet. For a five-team parlay, the payout is 20-1 plus your original bet. Of course, the more teams you add the harder it is to win. The parlay is a quick way to a big payout if you have the right knowledge and picks. After the parlays, the next football betting option would be the teasers. Teasers are just like parlays since you choose multiple games and have to win them all. Teasers are bet the same way as parlays except you will get more points for your bet. There are a couple types of betting options for teasers with football. Usually, depending on the casino, there are 6-point teasers and 7-point teasers. You may be thinking to yourself if these are any good. You will get two separate responses for this. For college football, people don't believe they are any good because the games are usually blowouts and an extra 7 points won't do me any good. For pro football, people seem to enjoy the teasers and the extra points they receive because pro games tend to be a bit closer. ere is an example of a teaser bet: Say you like the Raiders to win this week over the Bills but you don't think they would cover the spread of -7. So, you would like to do a 7 point teaser and now you have the Raiders as a Pick em'. Of course you would have to add at least two more teams to make the bet. Again, a teaser is bet the same way as a parlay, you need more than one team to make the bet. Another thing to remember with a teaser is you can bet both the favorite and the underdog of the same game. Lets go back to the Raiders example: Raiders -7 over the Bills. On a 7 point teaser, you could take the Raiders as a Pick em' and the Bills as a 14 point underdog. You could win both ways. People enjoy the teasers for other reasons as well such as "hedging a bet." Lets say you have a 100 unit 5 team parlay going into the Monday night game. You have already hit 4 teams and if the fifth team hits you are looking at a 2000 unit payout. But you want to make sure you win something. If that fifth team doesn't cover the spread, there will be no payout. So this is where you would "hedge your bet." You could also "hedge" with a straight bet as well but a teaser is a better way to go. "Hedging" means betting on the opposite team than your original team on your original bet. This way, you are insured of winning something no matter what. The only time you would want to "hedge" is when it is with a parlay. Some people may find it strange to bet against your original bet, but the only difference between you and them is you will be walking out with units in your pocket using this betting option. The only draw back to a teaser off the board is you cannot do the oveunder. You can do oveunder teasers off a card but we will get to those later on in the article. You may think this is a great bet receiving extra points but the player ends up paying for these points in the end in the form of lower payouts than on the parlay. This is not a betting option where you want to make bad picks with a lower payout. The round robin is a form of the parlay betting option. With the round robin you would bet just like a parlay only now you are combing all your teams. This can be confusing to someone one at first, but once you do it, it is one of the best betting options out there. The reason this is a good football betting option is because you do not have to win all the games to win at least some of your money back. Of course you have to hit all the games to win a big payout but if you hit a few of the games, you could just win your money back or even a little profit. A round robin parlay consists of two to eight teams. When you pick the amount of teams you want to bet, they are broken down into two team parlays. Before all the confusion starts, let me explain: Lets say you want to bet a 3 team round robin. Your bet would consist of 3 teams. For this quick example, lets call the teams, team 1, team 2, and team 3. I'll get into a better example when we start talking betting units. A 3 team round robin is team 1 and team 2 (two team parlay), team 1 and 3(two team parlay), and team 2 and 3 (two team parlay). Each team is parlayed with each other only once. Realize that each parlay is a bet. The more teams you bet, the more parlays you have and the more it is going to cost you. Now, here is your full 3 team round robin betting option example: Let's say you want to bet 100 units on a three-team parlay. That will come out to be 300 units because of the three different parlays. Here are the teams you want to bet: Panthers -1 Rams -10 Patriots -2 If all three teams hit this is how your payout would look: Panthers and Rams 100 unit bet to win 260 Panthers and Patriots 100 unit bet to win 260 Rams and Patriots 100 unit bet to win 260 Your total bet was 300 units and if all three win, you would win 480 units plus your original 300 for a total of 780. Now lets say only two of the teams covered their spread: Panthers and Rams 100 unit bet to win 260 Panthers and Patriots 100 unit bet no win Rams and Patriots 100 unit bet no win Your total bet is still 300 units and you'll cash out 260 total. So in actuality, you would only loose 40 units. That is the difference between a round robin and a regular parlay, that chance of hitting two out of three and just losing a little bit. Now remember, the more teams you bet, the more parlays you will have. Another added feature of the round robin is you can do more than a two-team parlay. You could do two's and three's. What that means is you want to bet all two team parlays and three team parlays. Let's use our easy example of a 3 team round robin: Team 1,2,and 3. All the two team parlay bets stay the same: 1 and 2, 1 and 3, and 2 and 3. Now you are adding another bet to the round robin with threes: 1 and 2 and 3. Now depending on how much wager, you bet has increased by that amount. You now have 4 bets instead of 3. More of a wager but if they all hit, your cash out increases as well. The round robin is just another betting option sport books give you. There are so many betting options you can choose when it comes to betting football. Let's hope that these last few pages of information have helped you figure out what betting style fits you best or maybe you have found a new betting option you want to try. Whether you are in it for the long haul or a quick payoff, football betting is fun and exciting!
Sports betting is simply placing a wager on a sporting event. You are betting that your team, horse, dog, or driver will win. If they do win, so do you! If they lose, you lose your bet amount. Sports betting takes place all over the world, though in the United States this type of betting is not as highly accepted as it is in Europe. Online sports betting is probably the best option for those who are interesting in trying it for the first time. If you have never tried online sports betting, you are missing so much fun and excitement, and it can all happen in the comfortable surroundings of your home! The art of sports betting can seem confusing at first, but once you are familiar with some of the jargon that is used to explain the concepts and logic behind each type of bet, it is all much easier to understand. One of the best ways for you to experience this engaging way to bet on your favourite racing and sporting events is to get acquainted with online sports betting. However, in order to best take advantage of all that sports betting has to offer, you need to know a little more about it. Sports Betting - The Odds How does online sports betting work? You should start by studying the odds for the sporting event you are most interested in placing a wager upon. When using online sports betting, you can find these odds in the various online sports books used by Internet gamers everywhere. You must open an account with an online sports book before you can place your bet, but this is simple to do. Once you have chosen where you are going to do your sports betting, you need to decide how you are going to place your bet. There are many different ways for you to wager your chosen amount of money, but first, let's talk about the spread and how it can affect the amount you bet. Sports Betting - The Spread The spread is a point advantage in sports betting, which is usually given to the team that is generally expected to lose a particular sporting event. If you decide that you will bet on the team that is expected to win, they will have to win by more than the spread number and cover the spread before you are considered to have chosen correctly. If you choose the team that is expected to lose, that team will have to lose by less than the spread number in order for your pick to be considered correct. If by chance the team wins by the number of points that were chosen as the spread, the game is called a push. No one who engages in sports betting wins a thing if a game is called as a push, but you do get the amount of your original bet back. The point spread is done in order to make the all of the bets come out even for the sports book, and is usually done for sports such as basketball or football. Sports Betting - The Bet If you were to bet against the spread, most likely you would place a type of bet called an 11-10, or spread bet. By betting $11, you win $10 if your team's score covers the spread. This is another way that the online sports book makes its money. An over-under bet is also an 11-10 bet. With this type of bet, the total score of the two teams that played will be either over or under the total score that was listed before the game was played. Betting on the score being over is called 'betting on the ball'. Betting on the score being under is called 'betting on the clock'. A proposition bet is a type of bet where the online sports book chooses what the odds and the conditions of the bet are going to be. This type of bet can be most interesting, even a little fun at times, for the conditions can be as unusual as which of two football teams will make the most touchdowns, which of two basketball teams will score the most three pointers, or even which individual player will make a certain move for the team. The odds for this kind of bet are sometimes 11-10, but can be better or worse depending on the circumstances. A parlay bet happens when you are betting on more than one event, usually three. This type of bet gives you a much higher payout if you should win, but the catch is that all the events you bet on will have to win. If even one of them loses, they all lose, and you lose the amount that you bet. A money line bet seems rather formidable, especially to someone who is just getting into online sports betting, but it is really one of the simplest bets of all. It is also called a Straight Up bet, and there is no point spread to consider. You will just choose your sport, and then the team you think will be either the underdog or the favourite. In a money line bet, the sports book will have numbers listed that are in the hundreds, with either a plus or a minus sign beside them. These numbers are considered the 'money line', and are the multipliers for the bets. If the money line for your team is listed as 100, you will make an even bet. This means you will wager the same amount that you will get back. If the money line reads -110, then you must come up with the amount of money you have decided to bet, plus 10%. This extra 10% is known by the name of 'juice'. If the money line for your team is listed as +110, then you simply place your bet with the amount you choose to bet. If you win a money line bet, you get the amount of your bet plus 10% back. For example, if you bet $10.00 and $1.00 in juice on a -110 money line and it wins, you get $21. 00. A teaser bet in sports betting is actually a proposition bet that allows you to change the odds for the bet in either direction so that the wager is in your favour. You can go up or down in points, and must choose at least two teams, as is done in a parlay bet. You can have as many as 6 separate teams included on a teaser bet, but all of the teams chosen have to win in order for your bet to be declared a winning one. Once the games are over, the points from the teaser bet are added or subtracted from the final scores. The odds for teaser bets can be different each time, so it is a good plan to always check the sports book before placing your bet. A tip to remember is that generally, when placing a wager on any sport that can finish with a high score, such as football, you will have a spread. Sports where the ending score is low, such as in baseball will have a money line. Remember also that favourable odds on a game can sometimes work in your favour. Online sports betting allows you to easily go from sports book to sports book to find the best odds.
Beware the DM’s Cousin Part 2; Vengeance is Mine Sayeth the Rogue
Again, a cross-post from AllThingsDND. Welcome back. In the last part, you read about how I was emotionally brutalized by my friend’s cousin during our D&D days but that he promised to do something to make it up to me. Well, a few days after making his initial promise... he delivered. He showed me his initial draft at school, and I must admit I felt my passion for the game begin to rekindle. His home-brew was basically the best of the 2e Foxwoman entry and used the 3e’s Werewolf for flavoring and masculinity and good lord, he was willing to give all three of my character’s forms, ‘Can Pass Without Trace’ which would make my Rogue 90% undetectable in undergrowth and heavily forested areas as a PASSIVE! Without bonuses, one would literally need to roll a 19 and higher on the dice at base to find me if I was hanging out in nature! Not to mention the regular stat boosts were seemingly made for a Rogue... along with claw and bite attacks, giving me multi-melee options for a single turn! And then he once again promised that Next Arc would be focused on seeing this happened to my character. And you know what? He kept his word. While Corbin, Marhsa, and my character Thanagar were still relegated to ‘sit and wait’ when it came to the tavern we were using as a home base due to still being seen as Criminals from our lack of prestige, (thanks DM’s cousin for screwing up the previous two story arcs) the DM didn’t give his cousin the freedom and world building he usually did. Oh no, this was the first time I saw true railroading; none of the ‘dancers’ were there for Kravaz to spend our gold on, the bulletin board was damn near plucked dry except for one quest in the neighboring county, and even the rumor mill going about in the tavern was all about this young Heir who was set to become to the new Viscount of... ...Vulpesylvania!! (Insert Lightning Sound-Effect Here.) ... ...As I mentioned earlier, the DM was terrific at descriptions and pulling you into the world... but couldn’t come up with names if his life depended on it. Still, we had the hook for a new adventure and territory to explore! I was certain where we were going and I would get me my just reward for putting up with this asshat player when there were no other options to be had! Doesn’t mean the bully didn’t try anyway. DM’s Cousin: “Dude! What the f*ck!?” DM: “Language.” DM’s Cousin: “Cut the crap! Why is everyone in town so focused on this one specific place!?” DM: “Because in real life, sometimes things are slow. I mean, do you think all those available quests you didn’t choose or simply ignored are going to remain forever? Time passes and people’s problems get fixed one way or another or said problems come to pass and nothing more can be done to help.” DM’s Cousin: “...I *suppose* you have a point. Bah! Whatever! My character’s gotta earn his coin somehow–but you BETTER make sure there’s something cool for me to get since you’re taking away my options!” Anyway, we made our way towards Vulpesylvania! (Insert Lightning Sound-Effect Here.) And we were able to transverse the distance quite easily, which sadly was something else the Barbarian whined and complained about as he wanted combat situations along the way. It was quite obvious he was looking for any excuse to derail this plot-hook into something else entirely before we even got the actual Quest because it wasn’t HIS choice. Fortunately, the Egoist’s tune changed once we arrived. The grounds castle estate described to us in a most intricate fashion, as the DM often did, giving us the sensation were at a place akin to the Palace of Versailles if it were somehow more opulent and barricaded. This was a family that had both the wealth and manpower to where the head of the family was obviously bordering on becoming a Count or even a Marquis outright. And if there was one thing that the DM’s cousin was good at it was role-playing the often greedy nature Dwarves were known for and it was obvious even to him that a large payout was possible this time around. Although the guy was probably so good at keeping in character because he himself was a narcissistic son of a b*tch but hey, credit where credit is due. We had to do a bit of conversing with security first but when we were allowed to meet with Viscount-to-be, lord Ruppel Vulpes, he was in a rough shape. Although he was a young man in his early twenties, he had obviously been through recent harrowing circumstances, what with the missing right arm and the visible bandages that were around his neck that went down underneath the open collar of his fine silk shirt. Such damages drilled home something big was going on. Indeed it was. The young lord explained that the trouble began with his father passing away the week previous and there was a bit of a family ritual that had to be honored for the next in line to take their place as the heir. Three family treasures had to be recovered from the family dungeon and adorn by the heir apparent during the coronation ceremony. He had already tried with a contingent of the family’s security and... well, he found out the hard way he wasn’t up to snuff and neither were his guards. However, he hoped a group of seasoned adventurers would be more than capable. And so, we hired but the Vulpes family heir to retrieve a crown, a medallion, and sword so that the man could go through the ceremony to rise as the new Viscount. We were all allowed to hash out the details with Ruppel, much to the annoyance of the DM’s cousin who wanted to make certain he got the lion’s share of the reward. Instead, it was agreed that we would all to receive 500 Gold pieces each for our efforts as well as able to keep anything in the dungeon we thought of value that we could carry that wasn’t one of the core items needed. Of course, the DM’s cousin saw fit to bend the rules to that last part of the exchange when we came across the first of the treasures. It happened to be a beautiful long-sword made from silver with a Mythril handle and guard that were decorated with intricate silver filigree done in a similar style to the engravings in the lower have of the sword’s blade. DM’s Cousin: “Woah... how much damage does this baby do?” DM: “This weapon of blessed silver deals 3xd6 damage +1 against Undead and Lycanthropes.” DM’s Cousin: “MINE!” DM: “...Excuse you?” DM’s Cousin: “Why not!? This thing does better damage than my 2xd8 damage battle-axe! And over three dice, the numbers are likely to be on the higher side!” DM: “I’m sorry but you can’t keep it. This is one of the three items you’re supposed to retrieve for Ruppel.” DM’s Cousin: “WHAT!? Dude! Come on! What the f*ck!? This is too good to waste on an NPC!” DM: “Language! Sigh... look, you can use it but think of it this way. It’s on loan. You can use it until you have to return it at the end of this adventure, all right?” DM’s Cousin: “…FINE! I guess...” This would prove to be the biggest mistake. Still, the weeks that followed were great and I had actual hope that despite the dead-weight we had been saddled with that we were all coming into our own as D&D players. Sure, we had combat encounters where the Dwarven Barbarian got to try out the silver sword but this was a Dungeon meant for all the team. The DM had balanced it out nicely to where all of us got a chance to shine, whether I had to disarm traps manually or Marsha by magic, Marsha’s intelligence helped a lot with puzzles, and even Corbin had to solve a couple of puzzles that had to deal with the religious Lore and got to truly battle as a lot of those enemies we encountered were unholy and this, his status as a paladin made him an effective combatant. My friends and I were finally having *FUN* playing D&D campaign! Well... that is, everyone EXCEPT the DM’s cousin. He was starting to get rather antsy that Kravaz wasn’t the full center of attention. Sure, he was being allowed to search through everything and take whatever of worth wasn’t nailed down but it didn’t matter to him since that WAS part of the bargain made with Ruppel. Anything he found he was allowed to keep and thus, wasn’t taking anything from of our findings. But still, even with all the goods he was getting from this adventure, his ego wasn’t being sated. He continued to attempt to oppress me in-game and real life, calling me names and had his Dwarf set off traps my Rogue was working on, but I didn’t give a crap. I knew at the end of this campaign arc I was getting what I wanted and I wasn’t going to give him the satisfaction of upsetting me any longer. ...However, you can bet the DM’s cousin was going to make sure he got his satisfaction. It all came to a head nearly two months later... we were maybe a week short of having been a group for six months with only a two weeks where there were no D&D sessions. Both instances, I might add, happened only during this third story-arc of tthe campaign as the DM’s cousin found other things more important to do than play with us and the DM’s mom and aunt wouldn’t let us play without him. But I digress. We had the Sword, we had the Medallion, and now all we needed was the Crown. But as we got to the final floor of the Dungeon–an arena-like area–we found a bunch of well-dressed men waiting for us, as well as a woman whose very presence bespoke of nobility, what with her beauty, her refined garments, and very ornate and expensive jewelry... which included the crown we were told we had to retrieve. We were introduced to Lady Velox Vulpes, a woman who claimed herself to be the true Heiress of Vulpesylvania! (Insert Lightning Sound-Effect Here.) When we demanded to know what the heck she was talking about, Miss Vulpes explained that she was the older sister to Ruppel and the rightful successor to the previous Viscount’s title and lands. The only problem she ran into was that her sneakier younger brother had plotted a coup d’état while she was attending to their ailing father. Ruppel had gone to the local order of the god Heironeous and exposed her as a one of the beast folk, feeding them lies that she had sold her soul to evil and would do great harm to the lands once she took over. She had to go into hiding for her own safety. Since she was the most diplomatic of our group, Marsha asked about what the woman meant bu, ‘beastfolk’. In response, Velox transformed into her hybrid state of werefox and went on to explain that no, this power had nothing to do with demonic worship, that she had merely inherited the family’s secret heritage, as did her brother. He merely weaponized their bloodline against her so that he could take over as Viscount and likely implement all the crimes he accused her of committing/planned to do. As her men soon began to turn into werefoxes one-by-one, we were told that whether we believed her or not, there was no way we could hope to fight Lady Velox and her entourage. However, if we gave her the sword and the medallion we collected, she could go to the church herself, explain things, and have the priest perform the coronation to prove that she wasn’t a member of evil as well as lock her brother out of the inheritance. Her true status might be exposed to the world at large but at least she wouldn’t lose anything important. And that if we played our cards right, she would be more than willing to reward us for simply aiding her. We did the hard part after all, gathering the other two Heirlooms; she merely came in the secret passage the family used to enter the ground floor quickly to return said family treasures once the succession ceremony was finished. This was it. I had my hook. With the way the DM looked towards me, I knew this was how my character was to become a werefox. However, before I could open my mouth to parlay, there was a might shout that rang throughout the room as I was rudely interrupted. DM’s Cousin: “I throw the silver sword at her head!” Everyone Else: *Stunned silence.* Me: “Wait! You realize this is actually a peaceful confrontation, ri—” DM’s Cousin: “Since this is an ambush, I get +1!” And he threw the d20, the guy managing to roll... a Nat 20. DM’s Cousin: “All right! And it was with a silver weapon too!” Everyone: *Stunned silence.* DM’s Cousin: “Okay, damage is 3xd6... and since it crit it doubles my rolls...” The man’s hand tumbled and rolled the three six-sided dice in his hand before letting them loose. They skidded and bounced along the table top before coming to a stop at the Mark of the Beast: a trio of 6's. Everyone: *Stunned silence continues.” DM’s Cousin: “ALL RIGHT! That’s 36 Damage!!” I had actually stopped breathing at this point as my heart sank into my chest. And then, as if to rub salt in the wound? DM’s Cousin: “No, wait! 38 Damage! With a plus-one to the ambush and the Crit from the d20 doubles that too!” It was a solid minute before we continued, everyone just looking back and forth at each other while the DM’s cousin sat there, looking damn smug... giving us that same smile he always had whenever he got when he bloody knew he derailed the campaign plot beyond salvage. DM: “...The lost Heiress' head explodes in a ballast of fire, skull bits, and brain matter; the heirloom crown on her head splitting in two straight down the middle and its central gem shattering into a collection of minuscule shards. As her body falls dead to the ground, her body-guards draw their weapons and immediately rush at you all with unbridled fury if not purest rage. Roll initiative.” The fight that followed was definitely unplanned but the DM had stats for those characters and thus, were using them on the fly. We had a quintet of Level Five characters of carious classes and races that were up against two dozen separate Level Eight Ranger Werefoxes; the majority of which were dual-wielding. It was completely one-sided and I think we all expected a TPK. Yet, surprise-SURPRISE! Two grueling hours of dice tossing and praying later, we somehow managed to defeat them all by the skin of our teeth...but then to add insult to injury, the dumbass Dwarf damaged the relic sword as well during said battle, leaving us with only the Medallion in pristine condition! At the end of the battle, I turned to the DM’s cousin, not afraid to speak my mind; I demanded to know what the hell he was thinking! DM’s Cousin: “What? You saw how well they were all dressed! Think of the loot we’re going to be able to get off of them! Even second-hand, some of these clothes will sell incredibly well!” Me: “Look here, *Buddy*! I’m the Rogue here. I’m the one who should be thinking loot. And I promise you, if money was what you were after then you screwed us all out of a much larger payday!” DM’s Cousin: “Whatever! I’ll have you know that it’s what my character would do! His coin is getting awfully low and this Dwarf is going to need to pay for beer somehow!” Me: “So basically you murdered this group of nobles for beer money? You destroyed two of our quest items for beer!? Even though you’ve looted what has to be well over five-thousand gold in gear and other knick-knacks from this dungeon already!?” DM’s Cousin: “What’s your problem! They were monsters anyway! No anyone’s going to blame us for killing them or those beasts damaging the goods!” I had to twitch. Monsters? Beasts? These were damned NPCs the DM had created and he turned them into a combat encounter. Good lord, the b*st*rd railroaded US into becoming the clichéd, ‘Murder-Hobos’. And boy, that was a cliché that would come back to bite us in the butts when we returned to the young male Vulpes family heir with the Heirlooms in tow. And wouldn’t you know it? He was fully healed! No more bandages and he even had his arm back! However, whether that was from magic, medicine, or natural lycanthropic healing we wouldn’t know as his focus was on our mission. While he was initially pleased we returned with the family treasures as we had promised... he was far less thrilled about the condition they were returned to him in. A bent sword with chipping along the edge from battle damage, and a diadem split in the center and missing its literal, ‘crown jewel’. Very little that was worthy of proclaiming someone the new Lord of Vulpesylvania!! (Insert Lightning Sound-Effect Here.) Ruppel: “I’m afraid I'm going to need to dock your reward to have both the family sword and crown fixed. You had all agreed to keep these items safe and secure along your journey before you returned them.” Thanagar (Me): “I understand... how badly docked is our reward going to be?” Ruppel: “Oh... this will take about... two-thousand and five-hundred gold pieces to fix all the damages. These were quite precious, after all. Repairing the meticulous details and finding replacement pieces will be quite expensive.” Once more, the entire party was stunned to silence, including the DM’s cousin this time. We had all the upfront financial reward denied us because of how chaotically stupid the DM’s relative would play his Barbarian Dwarf. Realizing that some of us were about to lose it as this would be the third story-arc in a row his cousin screwed up and left our characters to receive a major punishment, he decided to throw us a bone. Ruppel: “You can at least keep whatever you gathered along the way. You still performed a service for me and I am not completely ungrateful. I am thankful that at least the Medallion is secured; this will be proof enough as to the validity for the other items when I bring them in for repairs.” DM’s Cousin: “See that, lads? It’s because of cheapskates like this you should always loot when possible! Now let’s go back to Port Town; hopefully we can get a PROPER adventure going this time around with me leading the charge as before!” It was that moment something inside me snapped. I’m pretty sure it was audible enough to be heard and/or visible on my face as the guy sitting next to me, (Marsha’s player) quickly turned to look at me with immense worry. I couldn’t take it anymore. All time and effort I invested into this game; nearly six months of my LIFE spent trying to be a good sport while putting up with abuse and BS in-game and real life among a group of people that were supposed to be my friends but not one would stand up for me when I needed it! And now, the one lifeline I’d been holding onto to get me through it had been snatched away–my best friend being forced to renege on his promise to me? I. WAS. DONE. At that moment, an oddly placed sense of peace came over me. Slowly, I turned my gaze and looked directly towards my friend who’s cousin abused me time and time again. Our eyes met and I began to talk in a calm voice. Me: “DM... where am I the room in correlation to Kravaz?” DM: “Kravaz is on the top set of steps that lead to the raised floor of the lord’s private office while you are the bottom step to the left of him.” Me: “I rush up the stairs and backstab the Dwarf.” The DM and my party members, (including my long-time harasser) stared at me as if I’d grown a second head. I then calmly explained to them... my response so smooth and on point that I think I was possessed by a stick of melted butter. Me: “He cannot take it anymore. Thanagar has held his tongue since he had come to this land, but this is the third time that this Dwarf has screwed him out of his pay and so much more after so much hard work, blood had been invested. With a promise made deep in his heart and soul, this was going to be the last time the abusive, slave-driving, gold digging midget took advantage of him, one way or the other. As a Rogue, I get a +2 to my Ambush, another +2 to Flanking, and another +1 as this is an Assassination Strike with proper weapon.” DM: “Now, now! Think about this. He may be at a disadvantage but he has heavy armor. Even with the bonuses, the only way that’s getting through is—” Before he could finish speaking, I rolled a natural f*ckin’20. The DM and the party–including me–were stunned to see the die come to a stop on the sweet spot. I was not expecting this. I was initially going for a suicide that would badly damage the Dwarf and give me reason to quit but this... this gave me a new sense of hope. The DM’s cousin on the other hand, the man who harassed me for so long, was now sneering openly, baring teeth like an animal and looking ready to pounce me for real. DM’s Cousin: “You son of a f*cking bi—” The DM was quick to lean himself over the board and force his body between us. It allowed him to interrupt and reason with his cousin. DM: “You can still counter this. He’s going to get through but with your amount of health and armor—” I wasn’t having it. Not this time. Not ever again. Especially since he broke his promise to me. Me: “DM, you never gave us a rest. Our health is still based on our last combat session. For the record, I only have three health left.” DM: “...Cousin?” The man behind the Dwarf chose to grumble incoherently. DM: “...Cousin?” DM’s Cousin: “I still got twelve health!” He had practically screamed his reply before narrowing his eyes and glaring at me with pure unbridled hatred. DM’s Cousin “And trust me when I say I’m gonna make your character suffer for this insubordination! All I need is a friggin’ FIVE to survive this and then your ass is grass you f*ckin’ dickless Rogue!” I believe it was his anger that helped me that evening or perhaps an angel smiled over me. Whatever the reason, the man who seemed to always be on a winning streak when it came to making the dice explode... rolled up a Nat 1. The silence was so deafeningly still, one could have heard a pin drop... the air nearly palpable from the heat and the frayed emotions that filled the air. I believe that this was the moment the DM had the same epiphany I had. Where he at first was terrified beyond belief... soon broke into the most serene expression ever. This was fate. The dice didn’t lie and we always went with what the dice rolled, no matter how much we didn’t like it as it was the very thing that always seemed to be used to keep us screwed over and covered in sh*t while the DM’s Cousin came out smelling like roses. Now, the tables had turned. Someone stood up to his relative and he intended to make it stick. It was likely going to be the end of so much in his life but Goddamn, he was going to give it his all. I might not have gotten my werefox Rogue but what followed was the most beautiful and intricate epitaph to the campaign. I probably cannot give it as masterfully crafted as he did but so much of it stuck with me, practically burned itself into my brain to the point that now, even twenty years later, I can recite a reasonable facsimile of how arc three and the campaign itself ended. DM: “...As Kravaz is simultaneously boasting about his financial prowess as an adventurer and insulting the employer to his face, a roar echoes throughout the room, causing the stained glass windows to rattle. It is one born of pain, or rage, of frustration, of that last thread of sanity snapping. The Dwarf turns just in time to see the Rogue coming upon him with inhuman speed, unseeing teary eyes filled with unbridled sorrow and fury. Kravaz sees Thanagar’s hand extended, holding forth that, ‘butter knife’ he always saw fit to mock him for carrying. His hand is on the pommel of his axe, ready to behead this blowhard or at the very least, cut off his thieving hands once the attack skidded off from his Plate-mail...” Pause for dramatic effect. DM: “...Only... it didn’t! Whether chance or divine providence, everything had lead up to this moment... a thoroughly loved and used Plate-mail chest-piece going up against a meticulously cared for and oiled dagger. The point of the weapon hit into divot... a chink... and with inhuman strength born from the fury that had the fire of a thousand suns, Thanagar drove his assassin’s dagger into the armor. Further and further; the plate-mail began splitting open horizontally across the thickest folds of pounded steel. Inch after inch of blade just sliced on into the tender flesh and sturdy bone beneath like a hot knife through butter as, within mere moments, Thangar’s entire hand was buried into Kravaz’s chest up to his forearm.” Another pause from the DM, allowing us to digest what was said. As that nugget of truth began to sink in, I could feel the corners of my cheek pulling so hard that they actually hurt! Then before anyone could speak up, he continued. DM: “...As the other end of the blade stabbed out the back of the chest-piece and a hand wiggled in place of where the Dwarf's heart should be, blood and viscera splattered out all over the Heir Apparent in a hose of arterial spray; the Barbarian's life-blood flooding from him en masse in a shower of deepest crimson. With his axe dropping from nerveless fingertips, all Kravaz Thrillcorl could think as his bowels released and he soiled his pantaloons and boots was, ‘I guess those things CAN cut more than butter’... what do you do, Thanagar?” Me: “I stare Kravaz in his eyes, watching as the light fades from them as I bring my left thumb and index finger to his mouth, both to help hold his gaze as well as firmly pinch down on his two gold teeth. I give him a smirk as last words to the assh*le are, ‘Thanks for the loot’. I then knee his corpse as hard as hard as I can in the gut, pulling my hands free and allowing the waste to fall to Lord Vulpes’ feet; my right hand holding my bloodied weapon and my left holding two nuggets of gold.” There had been many long moments here the table went dead silent, but this was the first time the group had gone stock-still. After a few seconds that felt like eternity, three sets of eyes began to dart back and forth between the DM’s cousin and I. For my part, I just merely smirked and leaned over the table, taking hold of the corner of the Dwarf’s character sheet and pulling it to me, looking over the obscene amount of items that were listed. I then made sure to make my point clear as I met the bully’s glare with one of my own, a hardened stare born from a man that didn’t give a sh*t anymore. Me: “What? Don’t give me that look! It’s as you always tell us: it’s what my character would’ve done.” The shrill, shrieking squeal akin akin to that of a pregnant-sow being slaughtered from the hind legs up resounded from the DM’s cousin; a cry that was completely inhuman. He literally flipped the table over into the DM and the Corbin’s player before standing up so hard he caused the chair to fall back into the dresser. He began running around my friend’s bedroom around, smashing his hands against the wall and random things he might have been able to break before heading off screaming that shrill, ‘Reeeeee’ shriek throughout the house as he went. The guy who had harassed me for so long was throwing a temper-tantrum like a Godd*mn mentally-challenged five-year-old. Needless to say. I was never bullied, harassed, or oppressed by that jerk again... mostly because that did indeed become our last D&D Session. My friend, who had his parents forbade him from ever seeing me again, basically told me I could not come over anymore after, ‘bullying’ his cousin. However, without me, the others didn’t want to play either. Neither of them wanted to become his new target and so got out while they could. I haven’t seen any of these players in years... and that’s why I use the actual character names. If any of you guys see it, hit me up. Would be nice to see you again now that we’re all well into adulthood. tl;dr Never let family into your game if you’re DMing unless EVERYONE playing is family. Favoritism rears its head way too easily. Also, use the ‘Everyone Sees Everyone’s Dice Rolls’ Rule at your own darn risk!
I just feel like I finally need to share my story (only person who knows so far is my sister, I absolutely needed to tell someone). So I've never understood the appeal of gambling. I never played slots, never ran poker for money or anything. My first sports bet was a Floyd Mayweather fight. Knowing what I know about boxing, getting a 20% return on my investment for May fighting McGregor was an absolute no-brainer. What I didn't know, though, is that I signed up for an extra promo and the cash out would not work. So this quickly spiraled into parlays and obscure tennis and football matches all over the world to be able to cash out what I put in. I lost 200 bucks, but the insight into people analyzing these things all day was somewhat fun. Shit result, but nothing that really hurt retrospectively. Wrote that off and never ever looked back at sports betting. Enter summer 2019. I get interested in the stock market. I read a lot, I actually do research on financial statements and decide to invest in actual stocks. It works. Commissions take the fun out, make gains miniscule, but it works. Enter finding out about Forex and CFDs. Leveraged. Again I start slowly, news tickers, books, lots of observation. Technical analysis is like old people horoscopes, but if I see movements that overshoot, I find out what causes them and decide if reversing them might make sense. I start with 200€ again. And it works. Beginners luck and the fact the stakes weren't high, but after a couple of weeks im up by 500€. 150% gain, Over 50 positive trades in succession. Not a single loss. The perfectionism will become my downfall as you might imagine. October '19. The FED is injecting repos into a market that keeps having these mini-recessions. The liquidity brings the spikes they hoped for, but the underlying problems won't just dissapear. So slowly, I am shorting the market. It keeps running up - I become aware that these trades will be longer term. I can hold the positions for a year. I know it will blow, I just wasn't sure when. On the ride up, I keep shorting. I'm slow to realize how the margin shrinks. I need to deposit more money. I can spare another 500. And another 250. And another 500. They say the market can be irrational longer than you can be solvent. November I lose my job. By January the P/L hits -4500€. I'm confident that this can't hold but I am running out of money. I'm ashamed to ask for financial help and I would never risk losing anyone else's money. So the credit card has to to. My card, my debt. WWIII almost kicks off the year and it finally dips. A single night later I witness the strength of the irrationality. My mental time frame is now to hold until middle of march. But the margin kills me, I am running out of money. I can't hold my positions. So one after another I start closing, panicking, how will I make this back?? This is it: I'll raise the stakes and just make this back. After all, these were my very first losing trades, even though they were huge. This is where I start to realize I am now gambling. I'm blindly taking positions to make money as fast as possible. Instead of making it back, I keep losing more. 3000 gone. another 1500. 1500 in a day. 700. 1150. Today I'm down 8000€. On a historic day. The one I was actually anticipating since October. The "coulda woulda shouldas" are incredible in this one. Not only would I still have 8000€, but I would've raked some extreme profits if I was able to hold. Instead, being unemployed gave me all the time in the world to watch charts and treat this liek a game I could gamble on. Unneccessary trade over unnecessary trade, ever shorter time frames, chasing every loss. The chasing and the frequency made me realize I have an addiction. The fact I deleted the app and still kept checking charts, just to hop back in and lose again. I started listening to the after gambling podcast and all the themes were so familiar, even when I wasn't betting, playing slots or cards or roulette. The mechanisms that ruined me were exactly the same. I just sold myself this dream instead of having someone else advertise it to me. This is by far the lowest point of my life so far and I can't tell wether that's a good or a bad thing. Debt is now about 1.5k + 6k student loans. Just the thought that I could be debt free today kills me. The thoughts of the vacations, the furniture and all the little gifts and trinkets the money could've been for me and the most loving girlfriend I have. It's gut wrenching. But more than anything else: The sleep, the health, the peace of mind that I have lost - the time - all the things I could have spent my time on. Educating myself, sports. Life was fuckin great until October, I ran my first half marathon; today I feel like a shell of my actual self. I am sorry for this massive wall of text, but I really needed to let go of this. Today is day 1 and we will count to infinity. Have a great day and keep those spirits high. <3
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run. Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season. ATS = Against the spread DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019
Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #31 Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #27 Opp (OAK) Weighted DEF: #31 Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): LB Marquel Lee (Q) LB Kyle Wilber (Q) CB Daryl Worley (Q) S Erik Harris (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): WR DJ Chark (OUT) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Chark (20%) Leonard Fournette (19%) Dede Westbrook (17%) Chris Conley (14%) Seth DeValve (11%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Leonard Fournette (77%, 18, 6) Ryquell Armstead (23%, 2, 2)
The Jags got blasted at home against the Chargers last week, and Gardner Minshew (2QB stream) did little to instill confidence that he is an upgrade over Nick Foles. While last week was a struggle, Minshew gets an extremely vulnerable Raiders secondary this time around. Oakland has the 31st ranked pass defense by DVOA, and has given up the 2nd most FPPG to QBs on the season. While it would be unwise to trust the rookie signal caller in a 1QB league, he makes for a possible streamer in 2QB or superflex leagues, and should be considered a mid-range QB2 with some upside in Sunday’s matchup. The loss of one of his top weapons does downgrade his outlook slightly, however.. DJ Chark has been ruled out for Week 15 with an ankle injury, leaving the Jags without their most explosive offensive playmaker. That should provide Dede Westbrook (upgrade) with an opportunity to see a high volume of targets against this leaky Raiders secondary. Oakland has allowed the 13th most FPPG to WRs, but their 31st ranked pass DVOA portrays a team that is quite vulnerable through the air. Chris Conley (upgrade) should also see a bump in usage, but he has been extremely boom or bust this season, and is reliant on big plays. Consider Westbrook a borderline WR2 under the circumstances, while Conley can be viewed as risk-reward WR3/4, just know his floor is extremely low. Keelan Cole will step into 3-WR sets with Chark on the sidelines, but he isn’t a realistic fantasy option at this point. None of the Jags TEs have been able to stand out after dealing with so many injuries, but Nick O’Leary did snag a TD last week. O’Leary is a hail mary TE2, although he does have a favorable matchup against a defense ceding the 4th most FPPG to TEs. RB Breakdown The running game didn’t have any more success than the passing game against the Chargers, as Leonard Fournette (auto-start) was held to 63 total scoreless yards. The Raiders are less vulnerable to the run than the pass, but have given up the 9th most FPPG to RBs, so Fournette remains a volume based RB1. He’s especially valuable in PPR leagues, as he is consistently among the RB target leaders each week. Ryquell Armstead (stash) is the clear handcuff to Fournette, so roster him if you want to have insurance through the playoffs.
Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #21 Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #31 Opp (JAX) Weighted DEF: #29 Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): None Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): WR Hunter Renfrow (OUT) OT Trent Brown (Q) RB Josh Jacobs (Q, expected to play) WR Marcell Ateman (Q) Key WCB matchups: Tyrell Williams vs. A.J. Bouye (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darren Waller (19%) Hunter Renfrow (18%) Tyrell Williams (14%) Jalen Richard (11%) Zay Jones (10%) DeAndre Washington (8%) Josh Jacobs (7%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: DeAndre Washington (63%, 20, 7) Jalen Richard (38%, 9, 3) QB/WTE Breakdown A nightmare second half of the season continued for the Raiders last week in a blowout loss to the Titans, but Derek Carr (2QB only) was able to finish with a serviceable final fantasy line. Carr has gone over 21 points just once this season, so his ceiling is not something to get excited about. The Jags have given up the 11th most FPPG to QBs, so Carr has a reasonable floor, but can’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-range QB2. Leave him on the wire in most leagues. A battle with plantar fasciitis might help to explain Tyrell Williams’ (drop) extreme dropoff over the second half of the season, but it appears the wideout will continue playing through the pain this week against the Jags. He hasn’t been a worthwhile starting option in quite some time, and the Jags surrender the 13th fewest FPPG to WRs, so consider him a TD or bust WR4, and keep him on your benches outside extremely deep leagues. Darren Waller (volume upgrade) is the real WR1 on this team, and his high weekly target floor makes him an attractive TE option at a position that is so heavily TD-dependent. The Jags have given up the 11th fewest FPPG to TEs, but Waller is too involved to be anything less than a top-6 TE1. Get him fired up this week to ensure you get a stable floor from that spot on your roster. No other Raiders pass catcher has emerged as fantasy relevant, so Waller is likely the only player that should be near a starting lineup this week. RB Breakdown Stud rookie RB Josh Jacobs (upgrade if healthy) was unable to play through his shoulder injury last week, leading to a workhorse level role for DeAndre Washington (stash). Jacobs currently plans to play on Sunday, so owners should put Washington on benches, and continue to leave Jalen Richard on the waiver wire. The Jags are an exploitable matchup on the ground - 4th most FPPG to RBs - so if Jacobs is active he needs to be in all lineups as a solid RB2. Washington should remain rostered as a solid handcuff. Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Jaguars 20
Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #29 Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #13 Opp (ARI) Weighted DEF: #26 Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): CB Kevin Peterson (Q) LB Joe Walker (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): C JC Tretter (Q) OT Chris Hubbard (Q) Key WCB matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Patrick Peterson (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jarvis Landry (30%) Odell Beckham (23%) Kareem Hunt (17%) Antonio Callaway (12%) David Njoku (12%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nick Chubb (70%, 16, 1) Kareem Hunt (62%, 11, 3) QB/WTE Breakdown Cleveland won the battle of Ohio last week, it wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t without drama. Baker Mayfield (upgrade) was inconsistent yet again, throwing for only 192 scoreless yards, with two interceptions. He’s sandwiched two serviceable fantasy outings with three that weren’t over the last five, so a bounce back seems likely. Arizona has proven time and again they can’t guard anyone, ranking 29th in Pass DVOA and 26th in Weighted Defense - ceding 24.5 FPPG to QBs, and 25.4 to WRs. Mayfield becomes an appealing matchup based QB1 this week, consider him a top-10 option. The Cleveland passing game has been a wasteland all season, with Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) being the only solid fantasy asset. Odell Beckham is having the worst season of his career, and is reportedly playing through a sports hernia. His expected shadow matchup with CB Patrick Peterson isn’t imposing, as Peterson has struggled against No. 1 WRs (Rotoworld). A viable fantasy day isn’t out of the question, yet OBJ is far from trustworthy at this point in the season, especially since we know now he’s been playing through injury. That being said, Arizona cedes explosive pass plays (20+yards) at a 12% clip, 3rd worst in the NFL (sharpfootballstats). Consider him a boom-or-bust WR2 in the great on-paper matchup. Landry on the other hand, has vacuumed up at least seven targets in every game over the last five weeks, clearing 10 targets in three out of five. He’s seeing monster usage, and there’s no reason to expect it to slow down. He’s a borderline WR1, and needs to be in all lineups. David Njoku returned last week, splitting time with fellow tight ends Stephen Carlson, and Ricky Seals-Jones. This is a smash spot for the position - ARI hemorrhages 13.1 FPPG to TEs, league worst - but with Njoku popping up on the injury report again with a knee issue, plus the timeshare at tight end, there really isn’t a viable fantasy play here. RB Breakdown Like many other backfields in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns are now utilizing a committee, to the dismay of Nick Chubb (upgrade standard) owners everywhere. Fortunately, both Chubb and Kareem Hunt (upgrade PPR) are seeing solid touch counts, and having both on the field at the same time has become a regular occurrence since Hunt became available. Arizona possesses a much better Run DVOA than Pass DVOA, but game-script and scoring opportunities should work in favor of the Cleveland backfield. Arizona plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the NFL, so there should be plenty of opportunities to go around. Consider Chubb an RB1, and Hunt a borderline RB2 play in PPR settings - ARI cedes 19.5 FPPG to the position.
Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #13 Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #25 Opp (CLE) Weighted DEF: #19 Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): DE Olivier Vernon (OUT) CB Eric Murray (OUT) Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): WR Andy Isabella (Q) OL Justin Pugh (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Christian Kirk (24%) Larry Fitzgerald (19%) Kenyan Drake (16%) Pharoh Cooper (11%) KeeSean Johnson (9%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Kenyan Drake (65%, 14, 3) David Johnson (37%, 5, 2) QB/WTE Breakdown The Cardinals season has taken a downward plunge in recent weeks, and Kyler Murray and company have only managed to score 24 combined points in back-to-back matchups (Rotoworld). Murray has made some downright silly mistakes, and while some of it can be chalked up to being a rookie, some mistakes shouldn’t be seen at the NFL level. His O-line isn’t doing him any favors either, he’s the most-sacked QB of 2019 (teamrankings.com). At home against Cleveland is the easiest matchup he’s seen in recent weeks, but it’s no cakewalk - Cleveland has a sturdy secondary, ranking in the top-half for Pass DVOA - and cedes just 18.2 FPPG to QBs and 20.6 to WRs. Still, Murray has demonstrated a high-floor through multiple tough matchups, and warrants every week QB1 consideration. Just be aware that although he always has boom potential, this week projects more as a floor performance. Although he’s done little since his Week 10 explosion, Christian Kirk’s (upgrade volume) 8.8 targets per game rank 13th among wideouts this season (Rotoworld). Again, the matchup doesn’t scream boom week, but Cleveland has been inconsistent at best this season, and Kirk’s volume should keep him in the WR3 ranks. Larry Fitzgerald, after turning back the clock in the beginning of the season, has bottomed out over the second half. He shouldn’t be considered anything more than a low-end WR4, so look elsewhere. The auxiliary passing options shouldn't be considered for Arizona. RB Breakdown Like the Cleveland backfield, the Arizona backfield is devolving into a two man RBBC. Unlike Cleveland, it’s not bearing fruit in the way of fantasy points for either running back. Kenyan Drake has ceded snaps to David Johnson since the bye week, and at this point neither can be fully trusted. Drake is the preferred option, and the matchup is good on paper, but due to DJ’s involvement, he’s no more than a back-end RB2. DJ is a big-balls dart throw; it can’t be recommended. CLE cedes 18.6 FPPG to RBs. Score Prediction: Browns 24, Cardinals 21
Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2 Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #9 Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #2 Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (OUT) DT DJ Jones (OUT) CB Richard Sherman (OUT) S Jaquiski Tartt (OUT) DT Jullian Taylor (OUT) CB K’Waun Williams (OUT) Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): OG James Carpenter (OUT) OT Ty Sambrailo (OUT) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julio Jones (22%) Calvin Ridley (20%) Russell Gage (16%) Austin Hooper (16%) Devonta Freeman (11%) Christian Blake (10%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Devonta Freeman (67%, 21, 4) Brian Hill (19%, 9, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown Atlanta’s second half resurgence continued against a rudderless Carolina team last week. Matt Ryan (downgrade) has returned to form of late, posting back-to-back solid fantasy performances. His ankle injury may have been the reason for the mid-season stumble, but either way, against a ferocious 49ers defense and without offensive weapon Calvin Ridley (OUT-IR), just isn’t the time to chase points. While the argument can be made that the San Francisco defense is banged up, they still possess most of the pass rushers that have carried them this season. Atlanta has struggled to keep Ryan upright, he’s been sacked the 5th most in the NFL (teamrankings). He’s no more than a back-end QB2 in a tough matchup - SF gives up just 15 FPPG to QBs and 17.9 to WRs. Ridley’s injury vacated 20% of the target share to Atlanta’s pass catchers, and Russell Gage is the best bet to assume his snaps and some of his target share. Yet, he still projects as a distant third option to Julio Jones (upgrade volume) and Austin Hooper (upgrade volume). The remaining receivers split snaps evenly last week, and aren’t realistic options in the tough draw. Julio should be peppered with targets san Ridley, and should be treated as an every-week WR1 regardless of matchup. Same goes for Hooper, both should be active in most lineups. RB Breakdown Since returning from injury, Devonta Freeman (upgrade volume) has accumulated 20+ touches in two of three games. As long as he’s operating as the clear lead back and receiving the bulk of the touches, he’ll continue to be a floor-play RB2. The matchup is imposing - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to RBs - but Freeman’s volume should stabilize his floor, just don’t expect a big day.
Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #26 Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #16 Opp (ATL) Weighted DEF: #23 Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): DE Allen Bailey (OUT) CB Isaiah Oliver (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): None Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (23%) Deebo Samuel (20%) Emmanuel Sanders (17%) Kendrick Bourne (12%) Ross Dwelley (12%) Tevin Coleman (8%) Raheem Mostert (5%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Raheem Mostert (60%, 12, 2) Matt Breida (18%, 7, 1) Tevin Coleman (16%, 3, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown The 49ers won the game of the year last week, in an exciting shootout on the road against the New Orleans Saints, 48-46. Jimmy Garoppolo (upgrade) showed critics a side of him many thought he didn’t possess, by not just managing the game, but gun slinging his way to victory when facing a deficit. He may be more than an elite game manager, rolling up 349-yards passing, with four touchdowns and an interception. On tap is an exploitable secondary that has been dissected by opposing signal callers routinely - ATL cedes 22.1 FPPG to QBs and 24.3 to WRs - Jimmy G is a very attractive QB1 streaming option in the plus matchup. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders (upgrade) and Deebo Samuel, with the emergence of Kendrick Bourne, has created an explosive receiving corps for the 49ers. The three have settled in as the fulltime wideouts, clearing up what used to be a mess of a rotation. Sanders and Samuel are both solid fantasy plays against an Atlanta team that boasts a true pass funnel; ranking much higher in Run DVOA than Pass DVOA. Adding to that, CB Desmond Trufant has been placed on IR, creating an even softer matchup. The concern is volume. Positive game-script early could erase the need for passing, so hopefully the injuries to San Francisco’s defense allow Atlanta to stay in the game. Consider Sanders a WR2, and Samuel an upside WR3. Kendrick Bourne is a no more than a DFS dart throw. George Kittle is an every week top-3 option at tight end. Fire him up - ATL cedes 7.5 FPPG to the position. RB Breakdown Two camps exist when it comes to the 49ers backfield. There are those that think Raheem Mostert has completed a hostile takeover, and is now the lead back. And there are those that think a Kyle Shanahan offense takes the hot hand approach, and that Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman could be next in-line to have the big week. Kyle Shanahan has stated that Mostert has “earned” his role as the lead ball-carrier, but we’ve seen that talk before from coaches, just look at Ronald Jones. Either way, Mostert has earned every-week RB2 consideration, but be warned, this backfield can change in an instant. Breida and Coleman are much riskier propositions, and can’t be started as more than desperation dart throws. They’ll likely still be involved in some capacity, but it’s not worth betting on. Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Falcons 17
Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #24 Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #19 Opp (DAL) Weighted DEF: #21 Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): LB Leighton Vander Esch (OUT) LB Sean Lee (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): TE Gerald Everett (OUT) OT Rob Havenstein (D) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Robert Woods (30%) Tyler Higbee (19%) Cooper Kupp (16%) Gerald Everett (15%) Josh Reynolds (10%) Todd Gurley (9%) Brandin Cooks (7%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Todd Gurley (80%, 27, 4) Malcolm Brown (20%, 5, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown After his first blow-up week in a long time, Jared Goff (streamer) returned to his mediocre 2019 levels in Week 14’s win over Seattle, at least in terms of fantasy points. The positive is that the Rams offense suddenly looks at least partially back to its old ways, scoring 28 and 34 points the last two weeks, albeit against questionable defenses. This week, Goff will take aim at the Cowboys - 24th ranked pass DVOA but allowing the 13th fewest FPPG to QBs. Dallas got lit up by Mitchell Trubisky last week, and are on a downward trend overall, so this actually sets up as a favorable matchup for Goff. Consider him on the QB1/2 borderline, and ride him if you are thin at QB as he should be able to produce a point total that lands somewhere in between his last two performances. What started as a year for the record books has turned into a disappointment in a hurry for Cooper Kupp (start). Despite the Rams being without their top TE Gerald Everett (out again this week) the past few weeks, Kupp hasn’t gone over 70-receiving yards since Week 8. He snagged a TD last week to salvage his day, and could be on the verge of a breakout day with the Rams offense starting to hum again. The Cowboys have given up the 8th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this isn’t an ideal matchup, but Kupp should still be viewed on the WR2/3 borderline and be in most lineups this week. The only consistent producer over the last month at WR for the Rams has been Robert Woods (auto-start). Woods has gone over 90-yards in 4 straight games he’s played in, and looks to be Goff’s #1 target at this point in the season. Consider him a borderline WR1 this week. Brandin Cooks (volume downgrade) just hasn’t seen much volume since returning from his multi-week concussion absence, and played about a third of the offensive snaps last week. He can break a big play at any time, but his role is too tough to trust as more than a WR3/4 at this point. If you have the depth, Cooks should likely be on your bench as only a part-time player in a difficult matchup. With Everett out again this week, Tyler Higbee (volume upgrade) will resume his role as the clear pass-catching TE for the Rams. He’s won a lot of matchups for owners the past two weeks, and should continue to thrive as long as Everett is sidelined. The Cowboys have given up the 10th most FPPG to TEs, so there’s no reason to view Higbee as less than an elite TE1 this week. RB Breakdown Perhaps part of the reason that the Rams have looked re-energized the last two weeks is the commitment to the run game with Todd Gurley (volume upgrade). The offensive line and entire team are getting healthier, and Gurley is getting the volume necessary for an RB1 valuation. The Cowboys have given up the 16th fewest FPPG to RBs and have the 19th ranked rush defense by DVOA, so the matchup is basically a wash. Consider Gurley on the RB1/2 borderline, and get him locked into your lineup for a game the Rams absolutely have to win to remain in the playoff race. Malcolm Brown makes for a worthwhile handcuff.
Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #9 Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #3 Opp (LAR) Weighted DEF: #6 Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): None Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): None Key WCB matchups: Amari Cooper vs. Jalen Ramsey (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Gallup (20%) Amari Cooper (19%) Randall Cobb (15%) Jason Witten (15%) Ezekiel Elliott (10%) Blake Jarwin (8%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Ezekiel Elliott (99%, 21, 5) QB/WTE Breakdown While the Cowboys have been a huge disappointment overall, they remain firmly in the playoff race due to the antiquated NFL seeding rules, and their QB Dak Prescott (auto-start) has shown he is deserving of a huge contract extension. The Rams have given up the 12th fewest FPPG to QBs, and have the 9th ranked pass DVOA, but Prescott will be needed for a big day if Dallas is to get a win at home. Their solid projected point total, and Dak’s consistent presence as a top-5 QB in fantasy, means that Prescott should be a fixture in fantasy lineups in the second week of fantasy playoffs. He’s a solid QB1. Amari Cooper (slight downgrade) may not like the term “garbage time”, but it’s hard to argue that’s not the scenario in which he caught his TD pass and salvaged his day against the Bears. Regardless, Cooper was able to produce despite looking less than 100%, and isn’t on the injury report this week. However, he’s likely to face Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage this week, which is a concern considering just how good Ramsey has been since landing in LA. Cooper has been more effective against shadow coverage this year than in previous years, and his role in the offense combined with his individual talent make him tough to bench. View him as a high-end WR2 that is capable of breaking Ramsey’s coverage, but could also finish with a disappointing 2-30-0 type of day as well. Michael Gallup (upgrade) has been relatively productive over the last month, and he could benefit from Ramsey’s focus on Cooper. The Rams overall cede the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this is a spot for Gallup to potentially come through for owners. Consider him a mid-range WR2 with upside this week in a game the Boys will likely need to throw heavily to win. Randall Cobb has benefitted from the high volume of passing in the Cowboys rough last five games, but will likely see a lot of highly-graded CB Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot (PFF). Consider Cobb a low-end WR3 whose ceiling isn’t extremely high, but whose floor makes for a useful asset in deeper leagues. Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin have rendered each other relatively unstartable this season, and both should be viewed as low-volume TE2s. Neither is worth starting this week against a Rams squad giving up the 7th fewest FPPG to TEs. RB Breakdown The Cowboys were without Tony Pollard last week, but that didn’t serve to change their game plan much as Ezekiel Elliott (auto-start) has been a workhorse all year long. Pollard is expected to return on Sunday, but Zeke will get his 20+ touches again this week regardless. The Rams are stout on the ground - 3rd best DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG to RBs- but Zeke is an easy RB1 due to his volume and talent. Get him locked into your lineup, and keep Pollard rostered as a feel-good insurance policy. Score Prediction: Rams 21, Cowboys 17
Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #20 Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #23 Opp (LAC) Weighted DEF: #18 Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): LB Uchenna Nwosu (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): RB Alexander Mattison (Q) WR Bisi Johnson (Q) Key WCB matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Casey Hayward (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Stefon Diggs (20%) Dalvin Cook (15%) Kyle Rudolph (13%) Irv Smith (13%) Bisi Johnson (11%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Dalvin Cook (47%, 20, 2) Alexander Mattison (37%, 16, 2) QB/WTE Breakdown Last week was a game that fantasy owners always fear; the home favorite Vikings so outmatched the injury riddled Lions that none of the offensive weapons were needed for a big day to capture the win. Kirk Cousins (low-end QB1) was solid as a game manager, but finished with only 242 yards and 1 TD. This week he’ll likely be in a more competitive game with the Chargers, who have given up the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs. While this should lead to higher volume for Kirk, the matchup concern is a legitimate reason to consider keeping him on the bench. Getting Adam Thielen back from injury should help to establish his floor, but his ceiling isn’t as high considering the Chargers are not often involved in shootouts. Owners can view Cousins as a low-end QB1, and throw him in lineups if they don’t have a safer and higher upside option. Cousins will have stud receiver Adam Thielen (downgrade) back on the field this week, and that means owners will have a tough decision to make with their lineups. Stefon Diggs (start) is likely to see Casey Hayward in shadow coverage this week, which would leave Thielen with more positive matchups, but Diggs is easier to trust given his body of work throughout the year. The Chargers have given up the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs this year, giving both receivers a slight downgrade in outlook. Consider Thielen a WR3, and Diggs a WR2. Both have a solid case to be in starting lineups this week, but Diggs is the slightly preferred play. Kyle Rudolph (downgrade) gets a tough potential individual matchup with stud safety Derwin James, and needs to be pushed just outside the TE1 ranks this week. The Chargers have given up the 9th fewest FPPG to TEs, and Rudolph is quite TD-dependent, so consider your options before plugging him in. Irv Smith simply isn’t seeing the volume to be trusted at this point, so he should be viewed as a low-end TE2 in a tough matchup. RB Breakdown Fantasy superstar Dalvin Cook (auto-start, upgrade) was subject to the same issue as Cousins, as he saw an uncharacteristic 47% snap share, but still was able to save his line with a few nice runs and a short TD plunge. This week sets up much better for Cook, as the game should be competitive throughout, and the Chargers are more vulnerable to the run than the pass. They’ve given up the 13th most FPPG to RBs and have a bottom-third run DVOA, so get Cook fired up as an elite RB1 once again. Keep Alexander Mattison (stash) rostered as a top-3 handcuff, even if he ends up being ruled out. If Cook were to suffer a setback or pick up a minor injury, Mattison would be an elite RB1 for the fantasy finals assuming he’s healthy.
Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #11 Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #7 Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #9 Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Jayron Kearse (OUT) CB Xavier Rhodes (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): None Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Keenan Allen (23%) Hunter Henry (20%) Austin Ekeler (17%) Mike Williams (13%) Melvin Gordon (11%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Austin Ekeler (49%, 12, 5) Melvin Gordon (46%, 17, 5) QB/WTE Breakdown The Chargers came a bit out of nowhere last week to drop 45 points in their win over the Jags. Philip Rivers (slight downgrade) eclipsed 25 points for the first time this season, and was dealing all game long. He’ll face a stiffer matchup from the Vikings - Minnesota cedes the 11th fewest FPPG to QBs and has the 11th ranked pass DVOA. Consider Rivers a mid-range QB2; his ceiling isn’t extremely high but his weapons should establish his floor as a solid asset in 2QB or superflex leagues. Still not producing at levels owner are accustomed to, Keenan Allen (start) has at least returned solid value over his past 4 games with good yardage and 2 total TDs. Mike Williams (downgrade PPR) FINALLY scored his first TD of the year, after getting 10 last year, and continues to make impressive contested chunk catches week in and week out. The Vikings have given up the 8th most FPPG to WRs, and Xavier Rhodes is no longer a shutdown shadow corner, so both WRs are worth starting consideration. Consider Allen a WR2, with upside in PPR leagues, and view Williams as a WR3 with an upgrade in standard leagues. The Vikings pass rush is impressive, and the Chargers O-line has struggled to keep Rivers upright against top defensive lines, so having the time to throw downfield might make Allen more productive than Williams this week. Hunter Henry (start) found the end zone last week, and despite some low yardage totals the last month remains a solid TE1 this week. The Vikings have allowed the 14th most FPPG to TEs, so this isn’t a shy-away matchup by any means. Get Henry active unless you have a top-3 alternative, as he might benefit from additional short throws due to Rivers needing to get the ball out quick. RB Breakdown Perhaps the most important player to the Chargers this year has been the explosive and dynamic all around back, Austin Ekeler (auto-start). He put up a career-high 213 scrimmage yards in the win last week, which was buoyed by an impressive 84 yard catch and run TD. Melvin Gordon (PPR downgrade) got in on the action by rolling up 84 total yards and a TD, and should continue to handle a slight majority of the carries. Ekeler’s role is slightly more valuable, however, as his looks in the passing game often give him room to make plays in the open field, and give him a higher floor in PPR leagues. Consider Ekeler on the RB1/2 borderline, especially in PPR formats, and Gordon can be viewed as a solid RB2. Both should be in lineups this week, despite the Vikings giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs, but Ekeler is a bit safer as he doesn’t require rushing lanes up the middle or goal-line opportunities to be able to rack up the points. Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Chargers 16
Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #10 Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #10 Opp (NO) Weighted DEF: #7 Injuries to Watch DEF (NO) Friday Report: LB Kiko Alonso (DNP) S Vonn Bell (DNP) CB Patrick Robinson (DNP) DE Cameron Jordan (LP) LB AJ Klein (LP) Injuries to Watch OFF (IND) Friday Report: WR TY Hilton (LP) OL Le’Raven Clark (DNP) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): T.Y. Hilton (24%) Zach Pascal (20%) Jack Doyle (15%) Parris Campbell (15%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Deon Cain (6%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nyheim Hines (56%, 8, 5) Marlon Mack (41%, 13, 0) Jordan Wilkins (14%, 1, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown This season has gone south fast for the Colts, dropping five of their last six games, and Jacoby Brissett (downgrade) has been much less effective in the second half of the season. He was able to take advantage of the Buccaneers ridiculously bad secondary last week in a close loss, but will face a stiffer challenge this week. The Saints give up the 10th most FPPG to QBs, but have the 10th best pass DVOA, and Brissett may be without his top WR again this week. Consider him a low-upside QB2, and don’t look his way unless desperate in a 2QB or superflex league. TY Hilton (injury downgrade) is currently listed as a game time decision for MNF, making him a risky starting proposition due to the fact that most of the alternative options in your lineup will have already played by the time we get final clarity on his status. Unless there is a report stating definitively he will suit up, it’s best to avoid him this week. If you own Zach Pascal (start only if Hilton sits), you could also use him as a pivot option in case Hilton is ruled out before kickoff. If that’s the case, it would leave Pascal in position to soak up another high target total. He’s been extremely productive the past two weeks, and the Saints give up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs, so if he’s the #1 option this week he should be in your lineup. However, it’s hard to bank on this as Hilton likely won’t be declared active or inactive until just before kickoff, so it’s tough to bench more established studs for him during Sunday’s games. Consider Pascal a borderline WR2 if Hilton sits, but he’s no more than a boom-bust WR3/4 if Hilton plays. It’s likely best to avoid this situation entirely if you can, and either player could potentially see Marcus Lattimore in shadow coverage if the Saints decide to go that route as well. With Eric Ebron out for the year, Jack Doyle (upgrade) has shown flashes, but put up a 2-27 dud last week. Brissett likes throwing to his TEs, and Doyle is a great red-zone threat, so with the scarcity of quality options at the position Doyle is a mid-range TE1. The Saints are middle of the pack against TEs, so get him in your lineups this week unless you have a higher floor elite option. RB Breakdown Another tough draw is on deck for Marlon Mack (volume upgrade). He played 41% of snaps in his return from injury, receiving only 13 touches. Still, he looked healthy, and was clearly the lead back. The Colts will likely increase his workload moving forward, and he should see closer to 20 touches this week, game-script permitting. New Orleans has only ceded 14.2 FPPG to the position, but Mack’s projected volume keep him in the RB2 ranks. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are merely afterthoughts in this offense with the return of the Mack, and both can be safely dropped.
Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #14 Opp (IND) Run DVOA: #20 Opp (IND) Weighted DEF: #15 Injuries to Watch DEF (IND) Friday Report: CB Kenny Moore (DNP) CB Pierre Desir (LP) Injuries to Watch OFF (NO) Friday Report: OT Terron Armstead (LP) OL Will Clapp (LP) OG Andrus Peat (DNP) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (30%) Alvin Kamara (22%) Jared Cook (15%) Ted Ginn (10%) Tre’Quan Smith (6%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Alvin Kamara (76%, 17, 6) Latavius Murray (33%, 9, 3) QB/WTE Breakdown Lamar Jackson broke Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record for a quarterback on Thursday Night Football this week, so it would be fitting for Primetime Drew Brees (upgrade) to break the all-time passing touchdown record on Monday Night Football in the same week. Brees is sitting at 537 career touchdown passes, just two shy of Peyton Manning. However, Tom Brady is at 536, so it’s possible that going into MNF, Brees will be chasing both Manning and Brady (NFL.com) Indianapolis has been fading of late, Jameis Winston just posted 456-yards and four touchdowns against a usually solid secondary. Monday feels like it’ll be a special moment for Brees, he’s a top-5 QB option, fire him up. Michael Thomas (upgrade) is also chasing greatness, going after Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record of 143. Thomas is just twenty-three catches shy with three weeks left to go (NFL.com). Indy’s zone defense should provide plenty of underneath windows for the stud wideout, he’s an every-week elite WR1. The other wideouts are riskier: neither Ted Ginn or Tre’Quan Smith can be relied upon, and should be treated as boom-or-bust dart throws. Jared Cook has emerged as the No. 3 passing option since Brees returned from injury, vacuuming up a 15% target share in the last six weeks. He’s expected to suit up Monday, after a concussion knocked him out of last week's barn burner. He’s an every week TE1 - IND cedes 7.3 FPPG to the position. RB Breakdown It was extremely disappointing to watch the Saints roll up yards and points in the shootout last week, while Alvin Kamara (upgrade) busted on 17 touches. Latavius Murray was given fewer snaps and touches than Kamara, but was able to parlay his limited opportunity into a successful fantasy outing. Unfortunately, that’s just fantasy football sometimes; a plethora of variables exist and many cannot be predicted. Kamara owners that managed to survive the opening round of playoffs, despite his unfortunate bust week, need to renew their faith for this one. Indy cedes just 14.4 FPPG to RBs - but they are bottom-12 in Run DVOA. Additionally, we may be back to a reality in which the Saints score 30 a week in The Big Easy. I’m not betting against the positive game-script the home matchup should provide; Lat “Pulldown” Murray can be considered a viable, albeit slightly unpredictable, flex option as well. Score Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 20
Building an app which makes it easier to bet on sports with friends
Hi everyone. I recently finished building my first mobile app which is a sports betting app and would love to get some feedback from the community. In short, it's called WagerLab and it's an easy way to send and keep track of bets with friends. The reason I decided to build this is because I generally prefer betting against my friends rather than a bookie, but it's kind of a pain to settle on the odds and keep track of who owes who what. So on the app, I made it so you can look through all the upcoming lines, choose a bet along with a recipient and an amount, and then keep track of your results/balances in a separate section of the app. No money flows through the app (obviously for legal reasons) but you and your friend can agree to reset your current balance at any time. Currently, I'm pulling spread odds on most major college and professional leagues as well as a bunch of entertainment props. My plan is to add totals, moneyline, and parlay betting (without juice) in the near future. Here's a link to the app: WagerLab - Friendly Betting Let me know what you think. I'd love to improve it more. Also if anyone is interested in beta testing something like that, hit me up.
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