My Choices For Belmont Park, Saturday July 6(Belmont Oaks & Derby Day)
These are my choices at the moment for races this weekend. However, I plan to start watching the tote board again, a tactic I had a lot of success with years ago, before I installed my current plan of betting the horses. While tote board watching often gives you clues in which horse is most likely to win if you learn which one is receiving bets from "smart money" bettors, who usually are betting with some inside information that most of the public knows nothing and/or heard about. While most of my bets will stay the same, there will be a few occasions I decide to switch onto a more well regarded horse to try to hit exactas and trifectas more often. However, since this is usually just before post on most occasions, I will not be able to change my thoughts on any post in time, so I would encourage others to learn more about the real serious bettors. The only reason I do not like using this system is it tends to overlook horses that I think has a real shot at pulling an upset but that is mostly because they did not receive any inside information on these types. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I will take a pass on races 1 and 3. There does not seem to be enough value in these races to take a risk on. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 2 Maiden Claiming $40,000--- 3 YO & Up Restricted To NY Breds---Purse $41,000--- 1 1/16 Mile Turf: Another fairly weak field, it offers value that will pay decently if you can beat the morning line favorite, who is not a lock against anyone, and a sucker type horse, who has gotten close several times, but has yet to complete the job. So my choices will be: 1)Keep The Light On(20-1)--- He has made one start in his career on a good turf course at 6 furlongs and was last for most of the way before picking up a few tired and inexperienced horses in the stretch. But his bloodlines suggest he will be better at middle distances on grass and he gets that opportunity in here. His sire, Willcox Inn, was a multiple G1 Stakes placed runner who finished just behind Wise Dan twice in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile while 2nd one year and third the next year. This will be his only crop to race as he was fatally injured in a paddock injury while wrapping up his only season at stud. 11) Millies Party Boy(6-1) is my choice for second. He finished third in his first career start and then tolled in maiden special races for seven more starts, always offering a late run but left with too much to do. Then dropped into maiden claiming and after a couple of decent runs in this class, he looked ready to graduate late last year, finishing second by a neck and then third, beaten two lengths. Then he was entered in two dirt races to finish up the year and he responded with two of the worst races of his career. With one start this year in an open bred maiden special weight where he returned to his old style and made a solid run to get into contention before flattening out in the stretch in his first start in seven months. Again he signaled he is ready to graduate. But this time he is entered in the right class, restricted to state breds, and on the right surface. 10)Golconda(8-1) is my choice for third. He has made 11 starts with 2 seconds and a third as his best efforts. He beat my second choice in his only on the board finish on grass in five starts on a yielding turf but was beaten by that foe in their next start on a good turf when my second choice just missed graduating. Since those races, they look like they have gone in opposite directions. However, since he is dropping back down into the class he seems to fit best in and his last two works since his last start was his best in his recent past, he could be signaling he is ready to wake up and produce his best run. 5)No More Miracles(6-1) is my choice for fourth. After 5 starts on dirt and performing poorly in each, he was switched to grass sprints and came alive in his last two. But 1 1/16 miles is probably a little farther than what should be his best distance and therefore I will place him here. However, I think he will be closer if the race remains on grass but is less than firm, as I expect him to be near the lead throughout. Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-11, Tri Box 1-10-11, .10 Super Box 1-5-10-11, Super Key 1 with 5-10-11 with 5-10-11 with 5-10-11. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 4: Allowance ---- 3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares---- Purse $66,000 ---- 6 1/2 Furlongs: 8)Bangle Girl(4-1) is my choice to win. She is exiting her maiden win but has faced several highly regarded NY breds in her two worst races, including the one(Newly Minted) who ran by the heavy favorite in here with ease. Her sire, Emcee, is a G1 winning sprinter and her broodmare sire, Hold That Tiger, is a G1 winning middle distance runner but his best known son is Smiling Tiger, a multiple G1 winning sprinter in his own right. 4)Cathy Naz(8-1) is my choice for second. While she should get a pretty good trip behind two dueling front runners, my top choice will probably get to sit the better trip and be gone before she can catch up to that one. While it looks like this is a step up for her, she actually is the only horse in the race to finish in front of open bred multiple winners and older fillies. Actually, the filly that beat her in her last two ran 2nd to Highway Star( at 2-5) late last year in a big state bred stakes. She also looks like she is cycling back into her best form, judging by 4 good works since her last. 6)Mary's Girl(12-1) is my choice for third. She has been racing in multiple winners races, but they have been restricted to 3 YOs and NY breds and this is a step up in class for her. However, she, too, looks like she is peaking into her best form and she has not only the bloodlines but also has developed a late run that should help her. The main question with her is can she handled the rise in class? 1)OK Honey(20-1) is my choice for fourth. At first glance, it looks like she does not have much of a chance to make an impact. While both her sire, Haynesfield, and broodmare sire, Not For Love, both won distance races in their racing careers, both have more foals that are better at sprinting compared to distance racing. And she seems to be following that same route. Her five placing in twelve starts suggests 6 furlongs is a little short for her but a mile is a tad further that she wants, as she has made several moves to get the lead, only to get ran down near the finish. And like several other, she appears to be regaining her best form after four uninspiring tries after winning before an improved race in her last start after stepping into an open bred race. Now she returns to NY bred and gets a distance that should be more to her liking. Bets: WP 8, Ex Box 4-8, Tri Box 4-6-8, .10 Super Box 1-4-6-8, Super Key 8 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 5: Maiden Special Weight --- 2 Yos --- Purse $80,000 --- 6 Furlongs Turf: 1)Hard Sting(12-1) is my choice to win. He is making his first career start off a series of good works. His sire, Hard Spun, won 7 of 13 lifetime starts but also finished second in the Ky Derby and BC Classic, third in the Preakness and fourth in the Belmont S while banking over $2.6M. Hard Sting's dam, Smart Sting, won 4 of 13 lifetime starts including a couple of Canadian stakes races and banked over $400K while spending her career on the AWT and/or grass. Second dam, Perfect Sting, won 14 of 21 lifetime starts while banking $2.2M, almost all on grass. Another Stonach bred and a horse he kept to run. 6)Montauk Daddy(3-1) is my choice for second. He has made one start, an off the grass race ran on an sloppy track and he closed well to finish second in a good time. While his sire, Daddy Long Legs, is not one of the best foals of turf specialist Scat Daddy, he did win the UAE Derby. He did not hit the board in any of his last 11 starts, including a did not finish in the Ky Derby. Montauk Daddy's broodmare sire, Old Fashioned, won his first four starts before finishing second in both the G2 Rebel S And G2 Arkansas Derby before an injury forced his retirement. However, Montauk Daddy's dam line is stocked full of serious grass runners. 8)Now Is(20-1) is my choice for third, though I believe he has a good to solid shot at an upset. He has made two lifetime starts, the first on grass where he broke a little slow, then tracked the pace but was no match for the top two. Then he was tried in a stakes race on dirt and was simply overmatched at this point in his career. Now entered back on the surface he will eventually prefer most and another furlong to work with, I expect him to get out front and wing it. While there is other speed signed up, they better have their running shoes on from the get go, because a minor hesitation is all this one will need to wire this field. His sire, Sidney's Candy, was fast from the gate on dirt but appeared even faster on grass. 3)Silver Promise(6-1) is my choice for fourth. He is another well bred sort that is working good for his debut. He looks like the only one fast enough to go with my third and my top choice early and if he breaks a little slow, which is always possible with first time starters, the outcome may be a foregone conclusion. His sire Declaration Of War and his broodmare sire, Tapit, both had some speed but neither was lightning fast from the gate. Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-6, Ex Key 8 with 1-6, Ex Key 1-6 with 8, Tri Box 1-6-8, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-8, Super Key 1 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 6: Dwyer S(G3) --- 3 YOs --- Purse $250,000 --- 1 Mile: 4)Whiskey Echo(20-1) is my choice to win. He has made one start this year and won in a good time. He has since worked out four times, with three bullets followed by an maintenance breeze. His sire, Tiznow, is one everyone should know about but the dam line is probably a mystery to most. While Whiskey Echo's dam was unraced, his 2nd dam, Aishah, is a G2 winning full sister to Althea, Champion 2 YO Filly Of 1983 who shattered the Arkansas Derby stakes record in 1984 while equaling Oaklawn Park's track record for 1 1/8 mile. This horse was born to run and so far he has! 3)Code Of Honor(4-5) is my choice to finish second and will be heavily bet. While he has raced against the best competition thus far, he has beaten very little in both his wins and that makes him vulnerable in this spot. 6)Majid(6-1) is my choice for third. He will try to take this field from gate to wire as he has done in each of his last three starts, but better horses are signed up for this test that any of those races. While I believe he will crumble due to the early pressure, he should hang around for a piece in such a short field. 2)Rowayton(3-1) is my choice for fourth. He is one who will apply early pressure on my third choice but he has yet to prove he can put away other speed and keep going up to a mile. His broodmare sire, Indian Charlie, always gives me reservations about using any of his foals in exactas and trifectas when they are going longer than 7 furlongs with other front runners present as most of them are prong to stopping badly when faced with heavy pressure. Bets: WP 4, Ex Box 3-4, Tri Box 3-4-6, .10 Super Box 2-3-4-6, Super Key 4 with 2-3-6 with 2-3-6 with 2-3-6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7th Race: Belmont Oaks(G1) --- 3 YO Fillies --- Purse $750,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf: 6)Just Wonderful(6-1) is my choice to win. She has made three starts this year, all at 1 mile and she showed little in each. However, the filly who won the first 2 and finished second in the last one(Hermosa) is Europe's leading 3 YO filly miler at this point and she also beat Just Wonderful in her only G1 test in Europe last year. But Just Wonderful will do better as the distances gets longer. Her dam, Wading's 3/4 sister, Athena, shipped over here last year to win this race for her only G1 score to date. Just Wonderful's third dam, Urban Sea, is dam of Galileo and Sea The Stars, both champions and top sires in Europe. 1)Olendon(9-2) is my choice for second. She has made three starts this year and has improved in each, including her first G1 placing in her last. While that race is an important European test, it pales in comparison to the three my top choice competed in this year. She has a good blend of speed and distance in both the sire and dam lines and should make her presence known late. 9)Cambier Parc(4-1) is my choice for third. She has won three of her four starts this year but now gets the acid test. Her sire, Medaglia D'Oro and her broodmare sire, Point Given, are both multiple G1 winners on dirt but her dam,Sealy Hill, is multiple G1 placed on grass and won the Woodbine Oaks on the AWT. 3)Coral Beach(15-1) is my choice for fourth. She, too, has made three starts this year, the first two in the French and Ireland 1,000 Guineas, a race for top European 3 YO fillies milers and then the Sandringham S where she produce her best run this year against easier. But she probably still needed that start to reach her best shape and now should be ready to get it her best effort. While her sire, Zoffany, was a top sprintemiler during his racing career, her broodmare sire, Tiger Hill, completed against the best distance horses in Europe. She also has some more distance help in her dam line as third dam is a daughter of Surumu, a product of Germany's best distance sire line for more than 150 years. Bets: WP 6, Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-6-9, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-9, Super Key 6 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8th Race: John A Nerud S(G2) --- 3 YO & Up --- Purse $300,000 --- 7 Furlongs: 9) Promises Fulfilled(2-1) is my choice to win. He has made 3 starts this year with one third his best effort. But in his last, chart says he stumbled at the start, but all I saw was he was a little sluggish to get in gear. However, the jockey tried to get him to rate after he saw he could not get the lead as the horse prefers and he flatten out in the stretch. But it was the type of race he needed to get him to his peak form. His 2-1 M/L odds is very generous, so I would not expect him to get off at those odds. 4)Nicodemus(6-1) is my choice for second. He has made 5 starts this year, missing the board in every other start while winning twice. It is only a matter of time before he starts putting back to back races together. While his sire, Candy Ride is known for foals with high speed, he probably gets his closing ability from his dam, Leah's Secret, who won several G2 stakes during her racing career, all from off the pace. However, her sire, Tiger Ridge is the only horse you will ever see that has both Secretariat's top two producing daughters as dam and grand dam. His sire is Storm Cat, a son of Terlingua, while his dam is Weekend Surprise. 2)New York Central(8-1) is my choice to finish third. Early in his career, he was a need the lead type that threw clunkers when someone outbroke him. But since he has been shorten back up to sprints, he has shown a willingness to rate, something he will need to hit the board in this spot. 1)Majestic Dunhill(15-1) is my choice for fourth. he has four starts this year and appears to be regaining his best form. While he normally comes for way back with a late rush in the stretch, you can expect him to be picking off horses late and could possibly get involved in the exacta, though I think winning is unlikely, mostly due to my top choice. Bets: No WP, Ex Box 4-9, Tri Box 2-4-9, Tri Key 9 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4, Super Key 9 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 9: Belmont Derby(G1) --- 3 YOs --- Purse $1,000,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf: 9)Cape Of Good Hope(10-1) is my choice to win. He has made 3 starts this year with 1 win in a non graded stakes, but it was a prep for the Epsom Derby. However, O'Brien is usually loaded with three years old colts and he decided to send this one to contest the G1 Prix Du Jockey Club and he just missed becoming a G1 placed in that effort. I'm throwing his last out as maybe he did not like the give in the turf course that day. He has two graded stakes winning full brothers, Highland Reel, who most probably heard of as he made three trips to the U.S, winning the G1 Secretariat, then returning the next year to win the G1 BC Turf and then the nest year to finish third in the BC Turf and Idaho, third in the Epsom Derby and 2nd in the Irish Derby, among several other top races. 5)Plus Que Parfait(20-1) is my choice for second. He has one win in four starts this year but now is switching to the surface he was originally bred for. While he made his first lifetime start on grass at a mile and finished third, he was then switched to dirt where he was inconsistent. Now a return to his best surface and a little more distance, he should be around at the end. 4)English Bee(30-1) is my choice for third. He won his last start which was his first stakes win and now gets the acid test to prove he belongs with the top grass runners. He has the perfect pattern for young horses who are poised to run their career best race. And while this race is stocked with horses who may like the 1 1/4 mile distance, none is even close to the bloodlines and proven distance loving abilities of both his sire, English Channel and his broodmare sire, Kitten's Joy. Both English Channel and Kitten's Joy was beaten by Better Talk Now in separate BC Turfs but English Channel returned in 2007 and turned the BC Turf in a laughter, beating Better Talk Now and Europe's best by 7 lengths. 3)Seismic Wave(5-1) is my choice for fourth. He has hit the board in 5 of 6 lifetime starts and he just missed hitting the board in his only non placing as he was forced to go wide and circled the field to miss winning by 1 1/2 lengths. Now the added distance will only help him. While the talk has always been about Northern Dancer as a sire, it is his dam line that made him the sire he turned out to be and she, Natalma, appears as the sixth dam of Seismic Wave, meaning he traces tail female back into Almahmoud and later into Fair Play's grandson and Mother Goose, a filly who has a race named in her honor. Bets: WP 9, Ex Box 5-9, Tri Box 4-5-9, .10 Super Box 3-4-5-9, Super Key 9 With 3-4-5 with 3-4-5 With 3-4-5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Race 10: Suburban S(G2) --- 3 Yo & Up--- Purse $700,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile: 3) Rocketry(8-1) is my choice to win. He tried in vain to catch the only speed who set a snail pace in their last and just manage to hold off his late run. With more speed signed on, I look for him to blow by the front runners in here. 11) Pavel(8-1) is my choice for 2nd. He is following basically the same pattern as he followed last year. Last year, he started with a fourth in the San Pasqual, followed by a fourth in the Dubai World Cup and a fourth in the Gold Cup at SA before winning the G1 Stephen Foster H. This year, after a fourth in both the San Pasqual & Dubai World Cup, he finished sixth in the Metropolitan Mile. Now he enters the G2 Suburban S off two decent works and his fourth start this year. He also adds blinkers and that signals to me that his trainer wants to keep him just behind the early pace setters. 5) Lone Sailor(8-1) is my choice for third. He cycled back into his best form two starts back, then was sent to California to contest a G1 on a track that works against his style of running but he managed to finished a distant third. Now with two decent works since returning from that effort, I feel he is ready to fire again over several of these he is entered against. Now he adds blinkers which should help him stay a little closer to the pace. 10)Cordmaker(12-1)is my choice for fourth. It looks like his trainer has been taking his time with this one to let him mature and he has slowly improved step by step. Now it is time to see what they have developed. While he is taking a big step up in class, his bloodlines suggests he should handle it and if this was not his first attempt at this class, he would be in my top two picks. Bets: WP 3, Ex Box 3-11, Tri Box 3-5-11, .10 Super Box 3-5-10-11, Super Key 3 With 5-10-11 With 5-10-11 With 5-10-11. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race 11: Maiden Special Weight --- 3 YO & Up ---Purse $80,000 ---- 1 Mile Turf: 9) Windward Sands(3-1) is my choice to win. A member of the last crop of Scat Daddy, she is working like she will win early in her career. Trainer Brown is sneaky good at having his horses ready at first asking, especially on grass. 1)Downstream(12-1) is my choice for second. She has made one start and after setting the pace for six furlongs on a yielding grass course, she did a steady retreat. But the horse pressing her throughout was Newspaperofrecord who drew away at ease and made her race look worse than it actually was. 2) Ledecka(7-2) is my choice for third. She has finished second in both of her starts, so that is the biggest reason to place her here. Also, experience counts in my book and she has ran credible both times while getting a little education in each. But this will be by far her biggest challenge as there looks like several newcomers with real ability to challenge her. 11)Foolish Living(6-1) is my choice for fourth. Another Brown trainee, she, too, is making her first start and has some sneaky good works, much like my top choice. While I think she has some good bloodlines, I prefer the other Brown's trainee bloodlines more. Bets: WP 9, Ex Box 1-9, Tri Box 1-2-9, .10 Super Box 1-2-9-11, Super Key 9 With 1-2-11 With 1-2-11 With 1-2-11. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My Picks For Arlington Million Day, Saturday, August 11, 2018.
I have made my choices on who I am going to bet At Arlington this weekend on Million Day. The first six races or so, I am simply looking to pick up a little change as the races are mostly filled with runners with limited ability. But I do like several in the better races and will take my shot in those races, though I have to leave a few out because I do not spread on my wagers. 1st Race: Maiden Claiming $15-10,000--- 3 YOs And Up Illinois Bred Fillies & Mares--- 6 furlongs AWT--- Purse $14,000: This race looks like it will run to form, so I like 3)Rachelgotstephen(5-2) to win. But since I do not bet any horse to WP under 3-1), I will use this horse in exacta and tri boxes only. Her trainer Joe Kirby is the son of Frank Kirby who owns this horse but apparently has turned training duties over to his son. Frank Kirby was a trainer that would always bring a longshot in for me when I needed it the most. She has started twice this year and ran 4th both times. Dropping into maiden claimers for the first time this year, so the class break should help. 1)High Power(2-1) will be the one I use in an exacta box with my top pick. She dropped into this class for the first time in her last and open a clear lead before tiring. However, her trainer, Reavis, wins a lot of races in gate to wire fashion. He is switching jockeys to the lesser known Marquez, Jr but he is known for his ability to rate a horse on the lead. Should be a late factor. 6)Frosty Friend(3-1) has done nothing in his first two starts, but they were at Tampa Bay in races open to all fillies. Given a 4 month break where the trainer spent the time getting her fit to run as her works have improved and she seems to enjoy the all weather track, which her bloodlines says she should. Chris Block has been one of the better trainers in Illinois for almost 20 years. Will not be surprise if she wins this race, though I will use her in my tri box only. 2nd Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 6 Furlongs AWT---Purse $32,000. I like the 1)Drilliant(8-1) to WP. His sire Drill, is a son of Lawyer Ron and he won the G1 Del Mar Futurity in his 3rd lifetime start on that track's all weather surface. His broodmare sire, Forbidden Apple, was a multiple graded stakes winner on grass in New York. If Drilliant run to his works, He will be tough to beat in here. 7) Hide The Demon(5-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. His sire, Run Away And Hide won all three of his starts, including the G2 Saratoga Special, before an injury ended his career. His broodmare sire is Tapit, who needs no introduction as he has been among the leading sires every year since he went to stud. Hide The Demon would be my top pick but I feel Drilliant has been prepared better for his debut. 2)Grit To Glory(8-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. His sire, Pioneerof The Nile, is sire of 2015 TC winner American Pharoah, but his dam, Live For Now, is a 1/2 sister to Point Given. His works has not been as flashy as my top two picks, but he certainly has the bloodlines to succeed. Race 3: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs & Up--- One Mile Turf--- Purse $32,000. I like the 7)Fifth Ace(4-1) to WP. He has made one lifetime start which came on the all weather track at Presque Isle Downs where he tracked the pace, took the lead turning into the stretch and finished 6th, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. Now, he has been entered in a grass race at the same distance and his bloodlines suggests he will like that surface even more. His dam, Model, is a daughter of Giant's Causeway and her dam is a G1 placed daughter of Machiavellian, the sire of Street Cry. 3)Wicked Gem(6-1) has made three lifetime starts, all on dirt, and has shown very little. However, his trainer, Kellyn Gorder. knows how to get a horse to produce and he has a series of works since his last that indicates he has or is ready to take the necessary step forward. His sire, Gemologist, won his first 5 lifetime starts before he was plummeted in the Ky Derby & Haskell Inv in his last two starts. And while he was never tried on grass, his bloodlines suggest that would probably be the surface he preferred. Add in Wicked Gem's broodmare sire, Mr Greeley(son of Gone West), Clever Trick(son of Northern Dancer's 3/4 brother Icecapade), and English TC Winner Nijinsky II(son of Northern Dancer), this horse should explode on grass. He will be my choice to complete my exacta box. 8)Duchossois(3-1) will be my choice for my tri box. His sire, Animal Kingdom, won the 2011 Ky Derby for his only lifetime dirt winner and spent the rest of his career more successful on grass and all weather tracks. However, I do not like that his last 2 works were extremely fast and they are uncovered. These types disappoints me more than their fair share, so I am willing to take a stand against him winning but will include him in my tri box. Roger Brueggemann is a solid trainer though, so this horse is not out of the question. 4th Race: Allowance O/C $18,000--- N/W 1 Other Than Or Which Have Never 2 Races Or Claiming $18,000--- 3 YO & Up-- One Mile Turf--- Purse $33,000. I am going to take the only 3 YO in the field and make 5)Southsider(12-1) my choice to WP. His sire, First Defence, was a G1 winning sprinter but his broodmare sire, Southern Halo, was champion sire whose foals ran well on grass and dirt. Add Northern Dancer twice on his female side and Never Bend and one mile should suit him fine. He tried one mile on grass in his first lifetime start, but got off to a slow start and a good run before flatten out late on a turf listed as firm but by the fractions and final times, was obviously very slow. I believe he makes amends against these. 3)Belfast Cowboy(4-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He has the same sire(Myboycharlie) and broodmare sire(Galileo) as the M/L favorite Sistercharlie in the Beverly D to be ran later on the card. He has 3 lifetime starts on three different all weather tracks and switches to grass for the first time. He crosses 4x4 to Danzig which gives him a ticket to win on any surface, especially up to a mile. However, hos broodmare sire, Galileo, is strictly a grass horse whose foals gets better the further they go. 2)Salvage Battle(15-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. His sire, War Front, is a son of Danzig whose foals are speedy like he was, but most do their best running on grass. He is now known as a sire of sires as several of his sons were graded stakes winners on grass and are producing foals that are excelling on that surface too. He has two starts this year, one at 5 furlongs on the AWT and the other at 1 1/16 mile grass, where he broke last, then tried to press the pace after a quarter mile before tiring in the stretch. One nice work since and his trainer, Chris Block, is better known for winning with his grass runner. However, I feel he will be even better in his next start, and major improvement is expected today. 5th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs Fillies--- 5 1/2 Furlongs AWT--- Purse $32,000. I like the 1)Take The Over(9-2) to WP. His sire, Overanalyze, was leading first crop sire of 2 YOs by winners last year and should continue making his presence felt. Her works says she should be ready to show the speed her female family displayed in their careers. Michael Stidham is very good with his first time starters also, so I expect a solid race from this one. 8)Twist And Shout(8-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. Her sire, Discreet Cat, broke his maiden in his first start in 109 4/5 at Saratoga and was then purchased privately by Godolphin who bred and owns this filly. Her trainer, Eoin Harty, used to train for Godolphin for a while, they went separate ways for several years and have now joined forces again and are winning with horses that are overlooked, including a couple at Saratoga this year. This filly is working as good as my top choice, if not slightly better. Should make for a thrilling race if both breaks like expected. 11)Kajawa(7-2) will be my choice to complete my tri box and she could play spoiler to my exacta. She finished 2nd in her first start on this track and distance. Her trainer, Mike Reavis, wins his share with runners on the lead and she should improve off her first start. Her sire, Cross Traffic, raced only as a 4 YO and ran 2nd in the G1 Metropolitan Mile, getting caught at the wire before going gate to wire in the G1 Whitney H, beating 2 BC Classic winners and a Santa Anita H winner. Her broodmare sire, Maria's Mon, was 2 YO Champion in his only year of racing and the sire of two Ky Derby winners, Monarchos & Super Saver. Lots to like, a small step forward is all that is needed. 6th Race: Claiming 12,500-$10,000--- 3 YOs & Up Which Have Never Won 2 Races--- 1 1/16 Miles Turf--- Purse $13,500. I will use the 6)Colonel Fred(5-2) in my exotics but will bypass playing him to WP as his odds are a little low for my taste. I think this horse is fit enough to win, it is only a matter of find a field he can beat. Colonel John's foals have been a lot better on grass than dirt so far and while I do not think he outclasses this field, he looks the most likely of a weak field. 3)Justenufftuff(15-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta and the more I look at him, I think he is one that warrants a small WP bet. His sire, Justenuffhumor, won a pair of G2 turf races at Saratoga and he is a 1/2 brother to multiple G2 AWT winner, Lewis Michael, and Champion 2 YO filly, Dreaming Of Anna, who won the BC Juvenile Fillies. Their dam, Justenuffheart, is a 1/2 sister to Kitten's Joy. His last start was his first on grassin a turf sprint and he drew the rail, hit the gate and did not pick up his feet after thatin a distance that was probably too short for him. Brian Williamson trains and learned from his father-in-law, Harvey Vanier, and knows how to get them ready. 8)All Strikes(8-1) will be my choice to complete the tri box. While anyone could jump up in here and surprise, he has picked up a lot of minor shares and I normally like to use these types underneath in exotics, but in no way would I bet any across the board money on this type. Simply too risky. 7th Race: Starter O/C $10,000-$5,000. 3 YO & Up Which Have Started For A $5,000 Claiming Price Or Less Since Jan 1st Or Claiming Price $10,000-- One Mile Turf--- Purse $15,000. 6)Diamondmaze(9-2) will be my choice to WP. He last started on May 28 at one mile on grass, hit the gate coming out, settled near the back on a yielding turf course, made a menacing move into the stretch before flattening out late, His last win was also one mile on grass where he broke alertly and took the field wire to wire on the tiring Fair Grounds turf course. I expect him to get a better break today with 3 decent works in July and they might not be able to catch him. 11)Dancing Rock(12-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. In his last off a 2 month break, he sat slightly off the pace, engaged the front runner turning into the stretch, but both were caught by late runners in an effort that was better that it looks. He should move forward off that effort and this is his fourth start this year. While he shows no works since his last, the Kirby's owns their own farm and it has a training track, so you can bet he is fit. Could upset my top choice if pace is faster than expected. 9)Spanish Justice(12-1) will complete my tri box. He has been sprinting on grass lately and should show front running speed on the stretch out and is a big threat to my top choice in making the pace too fast early. And for those that have no idea, his sire, Spanish Steps is a full brother to Unbridled's Song and Spanish Steps is sire of G1 BC Turf wire to wire winner and Older Grass Champion Little Mike. So this horse will have speed to spare. Race 8: Bruce D Memorial Stakes--- 3 YOs--- One Mile AWT--- Purse $100,000. 6)Wile E Coyote(12-1) will be my choice to WP. He won his last start but was DQ to 2nd for drifting in, impeding the runner up. But they were clear of the rest of the field. I usually consider all City Zip's foals up to a mile , especially on grass and the AWT plays a lot like grass. City Zip is a 1/2 brother to Ghostzapper. Wile E Coyote's broodmare sire, Cactus Ridge, is a son of Hennessy who is best known as sire of Johannesburg(sire of Scat Daddy) and Henny Hughes(sire of Beholder). Cactus Ridge won all 4 of his starts and his best foal was the G1 winning filly Hot Cha Cha but this daughter also won almost $550,000 on the track. 8)Nottoway(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He should get a nice stalking trip and could be the one to take advantage of an expected speed duel. His sire, Twirling Candy, showed a lot of front running speed in his racing career, but his broodmare sire, Harlan's Holiday, won both the G1 Florida Derby And G1 Blue Grass S before running 7th in the Ky Derby as the lukewarm favorite. His best son, Into Mischief, is a top sire in racing today. And Nottoway shows the style of racing that carried Harlan's Holiday to most of his top graded wins. 7)The Tabulator(2-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He is the class of this field but has shown he runs better if he can get a clear lead early which I do not expect him to get. The fields he has beaten are suspect at best and he has yet to beat a top horse. No way is he a single in any exotic wager, IMO. Race 9: G1 Secretariat Stakes----- 3 YOs---- 1 1/4 Miles Turf---- Purse $400,000. 9)Analyze It(2-1) will be my choice to WP but I will probably only use him in my exotics bets as his odds will be lower than what I am risking to wager on. His sire, Point Of Entry, took a while before he put it all together and then he became a beast to beat, winning 9 of 18 lifetime starts, including 7 of his last 9 starts, including 5 G1 wins. Both of his losses came in the G1 BC Turf when 2nd to the aforementioned Little Mike and 4th to Galileo's son, Magician, both longshots. A single in exotics, IMO. I am going to throw everyone a serious contender if they want to make money. 6)Ming(20-1) will be my choice to complete the exacta. His sire, Pour Moi, won 3 of 5 lifetime starts, including the G1 Epsom Derby in his final start. Pour Moi is a grandson of Sadler's Wells and also sire upset 2017 G1 Epsom Derby winner Wings Of Eagles(40-1 odds) from his first crop to race. His broodmare sire Persian Bold is a son of Ireland 2 YO champion Bold Lad. The sire of Ming's 2nd dam is Secreto, who beat El Gran Senor in the G1 Epsom Derby. Sire of his 3rd dam is Sham, second to Secretariat in the G1 Ky Derby & Preakness S. And the sire of his 4th dam is Majestic Prince, who was sweeping the 1969 U.S. Triple Crown before suffering a career ending injury to finish 2nd in his only career loss. Don't know about anyone else, but this is one horse that will be in all my exotics and I will probably end up betting some to WP on him. He taking a big step up in class but he would be far from the first to spring an upset in a major U.S. grass race. Joseph O'Brien is a son of Aidan O'Brien who started training because he gain too much weight(due to his height mostly) to tack the weight required on most horses. He is already a G1 winning trainer. 13)Hunting Horn(7-2) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He is trained by Aidan O'Brien and will make his presence felt. His sire, Camelot, is yet another son of Sadler's Wells stallion, Montjeu(like Pour Moi) and Camelot came the closest to sweeping the English TC since 1970 when Nijinsky II turned the hat trick and it was first career loss when a fast closing second. The Belmont Invitational was his first start as a 3 YO and his third should more him forward. I will try to hit a super in here. On a small super box, I will throw in the 11)Dubby Dubbie(30-1). Then on a biggie super, I will box my top 3 and put 11)Dubby Dubbie in 4th. While I do not think he can beat my top three, I like and respect his trainer, Michele Lovell, enough to put him underneath. And stranger things have happen in horse racing. 10th Race: G1 Beverly D Stakes---- 3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares---- 1 3/16 Miles Turf---- Purse $600,000. 1)Daddy's Lil Darling(8-1) will be my choice to WP. She won the prep for this race while geared down and now comes the acid test, which I expect her to pass with flying colors. 4)Dona Bruja(6-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. She ran 2nd in this race last year as the favorite. The horse who upset her, Dacita, first got recognition when she ran past Tepin in the G2 Ballston Spa in her first start in the U.S., the race before Tepin went on an eight race win streak. She will be making her 3rd start this year and first in three months but her works shows she is fit. 7)Fourstar Crook(9-2) will be my choice to complete the tri box. She has three start this year and ran well in all three. She is making her first start in two months but has been on the work tab regularly and should be primed to give her best effort. And for the second race in a row, I will give another longshot to be on the lookout for. I do not like this one as much as my last one, but I will box a small super using her with my top 3 picks. 6)Oh So Terrible(50-1) will be my choice for that super. Her form does not show much but she has ran in three graded stakes and excuses can be found why she did not run better. But she has been this distance only once in her career and that was the prep for this race, but she ran her best race yet in only her third start this year. Trainer gave her another race to sharpen her speed, then worked her in a 33 4/5 blowout at 3 furlongs on the AWT and then an easy breeze in 102 for 5 furlongs. But the best part is her sire, Cape Blanco. He is a son of Galileo and after winning the G1 Irish Derby at 3 , shipped to the U. S. at 4 and won the G1 Man O' War S, G1 Arlington Million and the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic in his only 3 starts in this country. Oh So Terrible broodmare sire, Numerous, hails from the same female family as Sadler's Wells, Nureyev and even Blame. 11th Race: G1 Arlington Million S--- 1 1/4 Miles Turf--- 3 YOs & Up---- Purse $1,000,000. I think this race is the weakest of the stakes at Arlington this weekend. But still should be competitive. 7)Twenty Four Seven(30-1) will be my choice to WP. His trainer, Roger Brueggemann, took over his training at the start of this year and he won his first 3 starts under his guidance, before finishing sixth in his last race. The owner of this horse is Midwest Thoroughbreds and they have won over 2600 races and purses over $50M. One of their horse you may have heard of is The Pizza Man, who won the Arlington Million in 2015. Trainer? Roger Brueggemann!! Now, Twenty Four Seven is a son of City Zip, which should tell this distance is further that he wants to go. But that is only if you consider the sire side only. His broodmare sire, War Chant, is a son of Danzig and won the G1 BC Turf Mile in his 8th and final start. Hollywood Wildcat, War Chant's dam, won the G1 BC Distaff in her final start. Twenty Four Seven's second dam, Amelia Bearhart, is the dam of Chief Bearhart, who won the G1 BC Turf at Hollywood Park in 1997. Smash it all together and you get a horse that will not be consider by most. But I will take a shot at a monstrous payday, you can bet that. 9) Deauville(6-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He ran third in each of the last two years in the Arlington Million and he took the lead in the stretch both times only to get nipped at the wire. His trainer, Aidan O'Brien, followed basically the same path as last year but has been pointing for this race. And since his sire is Galileo and he is bred on the same pattern as Frankel, there is no way I will leave him out. 2) Spring Quality(8-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He normally run fairly close to the lead but was taken back near the back in his last race. I am guessing it was because he was stuck on the far outside on the inner turf course at Belmont, and horses that far out rarely wins, so the jockey was informed to save as much ground as possible before moving out after they turned into the stretch. Plan worked to perfection, but I expect him to contest the early pace in this race.
EDIT: Both Dividsero and Spring Quality has been declared from the race. So I will now use 5) Century Dream(12-1) to complete my tri box. I mostly bypass this horse because I did not recognized the trainer. But he learned under the tutelage of Sheik Mohammad and Godolphin Stables before going out on his own in 2014. He won 26% of his races in his first year as a trainer and has now added a European Mile Classic win to his growing list of accomplishments. Century Dream's sire, Cape Cross is best known in the states as sire of Ouija Board, who raced in the G1 BC &M Turf S three straight years and won twice and finishing 2nd once against solid fillies and mares. His broodmare sire, Echo Of Light was a G2 winning miler in Europe but stretched his speed to 1 1/4 mile once in the G3 Prix Gontaut-Biron in France. But Century Dream has others in his dam family that will make the distance more reasonable.
Race 12: G3 Pucker Up S---- 3 YO Fillies-- 1 1/8 Miles Turf---- Purse $100,000. My final WP pick will be 7)Madame Milan(20-1). Her dam, Ville La Rouge was the dam of ill fated Ky Derby winner Barbaro. She has ran only on grass and has given a good account of herself except for her only stakes appearance when she hit the gate to get off last but made a good move to be beaten 4 lengths. Delacour is a native Frenchman and he has worked her like most trainers from that country works their horses. They usually only try to keep their horses fresh by giving maintenance breezes and save their best for race day. 8)Deadline(20-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. I simply like her dam's bloodlines and judging by her last start in the Ta Wee S at one mile on grass, she looks like she is starting to mature. Kenneth McPeek, is an above average trainer who gets over zealous sometimes, but looks like he has been patience with this one. He gave her a work since her last start, and she indicated she is ready. 12)Smart Shot(15-1) will complete my tri box. She is another that took a few races to figure things out, but she has won her last 2 races. She has three works since her last race, all good and gives the impression there is another move forward coming. Her sire, Skipshot never raced on grass though he is bred for that surface. All his wins came on all weather tracks in California, including the G2 Swaps S. Her broodmare sire, Smarty Jones won the 2004 Ky Derby & Preakness S before suffering his only career loss in the Belmont S when 2nd. However, his sire, Elusive Quality, is a known sire of grass runners and another son, Raven's Pass beat Curlin on the AWT at Santa Anita after winning several G1 in Europe. I will box a super in here and will use 10)Secret Message(12-1) to complete that box. All she needs is to learn how to break better and she will be tough to beat. Her trainer, Graham Motion, has elected to give Irad Ortiz, Jr another shot at getting her to settle in the gate. Her sire, Hat Trick is a son of Sunday Silence and his foals usually shows speed from the gate. Her broodmare sire, Gone West, and sire of her 2nd dam, Unbridled's Song, also showed good speed leaving the gate, so it is only a matter of time before she will also. These are my picks. I think I will make some good money but I always think that. It mainly comes down to track conditions and who likes or dislikes the surfaces most.
After the ban of boxing by Theodosius I in 393 AD boxing entered a long dark age until the 1700's. This saw prominant boxers such as Jack Broughton, George Taylor and Jack Slack. However soon after in around 1760 there is a black period of boxing history. This saw a decline in popularity of boxing, as well as some legal interferance, though I don't have as much information on this as I'd like. There is more information on this time that than dark ages but very little has be written on it. I believe much that has been written it likely incorrect, however I want to note that there is a real lack of certainty, this is a good as I can do at the moment, and I hope for this to be built on in the future. There is for sure plenty of information missing, and some may eventually be found. I decided since there's so little information written, that the notes I have posted should get some sort of write up, and I have not found anything new for a while, perhaps it requires someone fresh, and maybe this will get other people looking. I intend to do short series covering from about 1760 until around 1770, both for narritive reasons, and because this is where I've mostly researched. If you have any information I have missed, please inform me. By the late 1750's, Jack Slack seems to have been inactive as a champion, and the popularity of boxing seems to have declined since the Broughtonian glory days. It is in 1760 that the earliest of Stevens's contests I have found took place. The Public Ledger Wednesday, January 16, 1760. The old Broughtonian spirit, or manly exercise of boxing, is not yet extinct amongst us, since a bloody and desperate battle was fought yesterday in the fields, near Marybone, between one Stephens, a nailor, and one Swafford, a butcher, which lasted about fifteen minutes, and ended in favour of the former. A press-gang. Who attended, secured several useful hands, who, possibly, may be of more service to their country than being idle spectators at a boxing match. However it seems that it was his next battle that firmly established him as one of the top boxers. This was a battle between himself and Jacob Taplin. According to Modern Manhood by Henry Lemoine, this took place in a Roman Amphitheatre, with around 3,000 spectators. Lemoine describe Taplin as having the better of Stevens initially, with Stevens recieving a fall. However Stevens would knock down Taplin with a blow to the left of his chest, knocking him down. While both would close and fall the next round, Stevens would afterward hit him over the left eye, and then to the right temple, which knocked Taplin down, and won Stevens the contest. A report claimed Taplin died from his injuries Derby Mercury - 15-22 February 1760 (page 2) Tuesday was fought in the Fields, near Mary-le-Bon, a most severe Battle, between Stephens, a famous Boxer, by Trade a Nailer, and one Taplin, a Carman, in whose Favour the Odds ran Three to One; the Fight was managed with great Skill and Dexterity on both Sides for about 12 Minutes, when Victory at length declared for the Nailer, to the no small Mortification of the knowing ones. Taplin had two of his Ribs broke, and received so many Bruises that it is though he can not recover. It is computed not less than 10,000 Persons were present. Derby Mercury 15-22 February 1760 (page 2) Taplin the Carman, who fought the desperate Battle with the Naylor the other Day, in Marybone Fields, is since dead of his Bruises. In may 17th that year The Newcastle Courant reported that Stevens sent a formal challenge for Jack Slack. The is widely accepted as being for the Championship of England in later writings, it should however, be noted that Slack had lost to Taylor since defeating Broughton, and it does not appear he avenged this defeat. There is also no mention of a Championship of England in the reports of this fight, however references to such a championship are rare in the reports of this period. 1760-05-17 The Newcastle Courant (page 1) LONDON, May 8. We hear that the Nailer, the noted Bruiser, flushed with the Success he has already obtained, has, at the Request of some Gentlemen, sent a formal Challenge to Mr. Slack, now settled at Bristol, to meet and fight for any Sum. Soon after we see a report of this fight. 1760-05-31 London Evening Post (page 3) Yesterday, at the Tennis-Court near the Haymarket, after three bye Battles (one of which those versed in the Science deemed a remarkable good one) the Heroes, Slack and Stevens the Nailor, mounted the Stage; On their first Appearance, the Odds were twenty to one on Slack's Head; but in three Minutes the Nailor proved Conqueror, to the great Disappointment and Loss of the not Knowing Ones. This Battle, it is thought, may occasion, if the Civil Power permit, two more; one between the Heroes themselvea, and the other between their Seconds. 1760-06-03 The Leedes Intelligencer (page 2) LONDON, May 29. The Heroes of the Fist are likely to come into Play again. Hero Slack is matched for a considerable Sum against Stevenson the Nailer, to fight on Monday next at the Tennis-Court in James-street, near the Hay-market. If the latter should hit the right Nail on the Head, that no Doubt will occasion a second Trial of Skill, in which Butcher must come off victorious; This will be productive of a third Combat; the Event of which none knows, except those in the Secret. This rematch would take place this year, with the reports describing it like so 1760-06-06 The Derby Mercury (page 1) LONDON, June 5. on Monday the famous Battle was fought between Slack and Stephens, the Nailer, at the Tennis-Court in James-Street, Haymarket, at which were present several Noblemen and Persons of Distinction. The Combatants had only three Bouts; in the first Slack struck his Antagonist a violent Blow on the Side of his Head; at the second, Stephens hit Slack under the short Ribs, and gave him a desperate Fall; and finally pursuing his Advantage, gave him so dreadful a Blow on his Stomach, that he lay for some Time senseless on the Stage, and was obliged, after about three Minutes and a half Contest, to submit to the superior Strength of his Adversary. The Streets were crowded with Spectators to see the Combatants pass and repass. We hear that upwards of 10,000l. has been won and lost by the last Battle between Slack and the Nailer. It is said that Slack very kindly advised the Nailer to make his Will, and get his Coffin ready, for he had but a short Time to live. Great Men like others are sometimes mistaken. In July 1760 there was another notable contest between Fosscot the Drover, and Cheltham, which was attended by Stevens "and most of the noted bruisers", with Fosscot winning in an upset, as reported in Leeds Intelligencer - Tuesday 08 July 1760. The Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 08 January 1761 also reports a battle described as "thought to be the most obstinate Battle ever fought", in which Hunt of Pensford defeated Collins of Weston, after nearly one and a half hours. This battle was for 10 Guineas Stevens would then fight George Meggs. Derby Mercury - Friday 13 February 1761 We hear that a Trial of Skill will be decided in a few Days, between William Stephens the Nailor, and George Maggs, large Sums having been laid on this Occasion. The Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 26 February 1761 claims that this battle was delayed to the next Monday, having oringally been scheduled for the previous Monday, at the request of several noblemen. However the outcome of the match was reported the next day! Derby Mercury - Friday 27 February 1761 This Day at Noon, the Match between Maggs and the Nailor was fought at the Tennis Court in James Street, near the Hay Market. The Odds at first were greatly for the Nailor, but it was decided in favour of the former, who obtained the Victory over his Antagonist Somewhat later reports give a more detailed account. Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 05 March 1761 Monday last the Trial of Skill between George Maggs, of Pensford in this County, and Stephens the Nailer, was decided at the Tennis-Court in St. James-Street, near the Hay-Market, London. There were assembled the greatest Concourse of Nobility, Gentry, &c/ ever known on the like Occation. The Champions mounted the Stage between Twelve and One. At first setting to, Maggs struck the Nailer down; afterwards the Nailer knocked him down twice; and for ten Minutes he seemed to have the Advantage: However, the heroic Maggs, by his great Skill, uncommon Strength, unequal'd Courage, and matchless Agility, soon changed the Scene; struck the Nailer down six Times successively; and finally stript him of all Laurels he had acquired by his many former Victories.--- Smallwood was Second to Maggs, and Faulkner to Stephens.---According to the most exact Accounts, the Battle lasted just seventeen Minutes and a half.A certain Royal Personage was present, and won large Sums. 'Tis said upward of 50,000l. depended on the Issue of this Battle: One Nobleman lost above 2000l.We hear that Maggs and the Nailer were weighed a few Days before they fought; and that there were only five Pounds Difference, which was in Maggs favour. Oxford Journal - Saturday 07 March 1761 Monday the tryal of Skill between the Nailor (who so easily beat Slack some Time since) and Maggs from Bristol, was determined at the Tennis-Court in James-street, by the Hay-market, before several People of Distinction, and a great Number of Spectators ; when Maggs in about eight-teen Minutes and a half, tore the Laurels from the Brow of the most powerful Nailor, and gained to himself, the Honour of being the Champion amoungst the Broughtonians.'Tis said several Knowing Ones were out of the Secret In Modern Manhood Henry Lemoine states that Jack Slack, who had been training Meggs bribed Stevens to throw the fight, with Stevens admitting to having done such. This may be true, however the newsreports I have seen never claim anything like this, and hold Stevens and Meggs both in pretty good regard. I think "the Champion amoungst the Broughtonians" can be understood as being Champion of England, which solidifies the Champion status of William Stevens and George Meggs. Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 12 March 1761 There are three Brothers of the Name of Maggs, all noted Boxers, who have Challenged any three Men in England to fights what is called a Welch Main, for any Sum.--- The Bristol People, it is supposed, have carried away above 10,000l. won at the late Battle in the Hay Market ; and are so elate with their Success, that they offer to back their Champion for 1000 Guineas, against anyone Man in the World. Gazetter. George Meggs is normally dismissed if given any attention at all. Seem as an unskilled bum who was given the title in a fixed fight. Boxiana sums him up as "Of no particular note as a Pugilist". Whether or not his win over the Nailor was indeed a fix, he appears to have been better than he is dismissed as. Sadly there is scant information on what happened next with George Meggs, as far as I am aware this information comes from Pancratia in 1812. From Pancratia In July, 1766, (apparently should be 1762) George Meggs fought a pitch battle for a considerable sum with one Millsom, a baker, of Bath, at Calne, in Wiltshire; the contest laster 40 minutes, when Millsom was acknowledged the conqueror.In the August following, Meggs having challenged Millsom to another combat, was again severely beat.The same Millsom also vanquished Parsit Meggs, George's brother, a celebrated West-country bruiser. The only corrobarating evidence for these contests I have so far found is this: Oxford Journal - Saturday 01 January 1763 On Monday next a Battle is to be fought at the Tennis-Court at Barton Hundred, near Bristol, by Maggs and Milsom. Many Bets are depending, the Courage and Strength of the Champions being well known to the Gentlemen of the Fist, &c. While I would rather have more to go on, I am inclined to believe these contests took place, and so it appears that the championship soon passed for Meggs to George Millsom. 1762 also saw William Stevens, The Nailor, return to the ring Derby Mercury - Friday 01 January 1762 Yesterday a Bruising Match was fought near Strutton-Grounds, Westminisrerm between Stevens, a Nailer, and his Brother, against one Carrits and his Brother, when the Nailer beat his Antagonist, but the Brother of the Nailer was beaten. It was a very hard Battle on both Sides; and Smallwood and the Nailer's Second having differ'd, the two Seconds fought, and Smallwood was beat in two Minutes As stated in the prologue, this time seems to have seen legal interferance with boxing, which may be part of why information is so hard to come by. Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 10 June 1762 The Battle which was to have been fought Yesterday between the noted Stephens The Nail, and Turner the Coach-Spring Maker, at the Repository on Saffron-Hill, for 100l. each was put a Stop by the Activity of Mr Justice Welch, being contrary to a late Act which suppressed these Meetings, as only Nurserier for Thieves, &c. The Odds were greatly in Favour of the Coach Spring Maker against the Nailer I will include this report of another contest from around this time Oxford Journal - Saturday 10 March 1764 Yesterday Afternoon a very severe Battle was fought in the Spaw Field, near Sadler’s Wells, between two redoubted Covent Garden Heroes, one of whom is well known by the Name of Tom Thumb. The Odds ran greatly in Favour of this Champion, but after Boxing some Time, he received such a desperate Fall from his Antagonist, that it fractured his Skull, whereby the Knowing Ones were plaguily taken in. Tom Juchua, known by various forms as Disher was then reported as taking part in a a very notable match. Oxford Journal - Saturday 16 June 1764 Yesterday there was a great Boxing Match at Guildford, for a considerable Sum of Money, between Kannan a Butcher in Clare Market, and one Ditcher, a noted Pavior ; when after a Battle of fifty-eight Minutes, the Pavior beat his Antagonist. Their Seconds were Slack and Faulkner Leeds Intelligencer - Tuesday 19 June 1764 Wednesday there was a great boxing match at Guildford, for a considerable sum of money, between Koant, a butcher in Clare-market, and on Dicher, a noted Paviour ; when after a battle of 58 minutes, the Pavious beat his antagonist. Their seconds were Slack and Faulkner. Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 21 June 1764 Wednesday there was a great Boxing Match at Guildford, for a considerable Sum of Sum of Monet, between Kannam, a Butcher in Claremarket, and one Dicher, a noted Paviour: The Butcher knocked the Paviour down six or seven Times succeslively, and the Odds were in his Favour l but the Paviour recovering his Wind, in his Turn threw the Butcher several dreadful Falls; which obliged him to give out, after having fought exactly 46 Minutes and a Half. Their Seconds were Slack and Faulkner.It is said there were above 4000l. depending on this Boxing Match ; several Persons of Distinction also were present ; and before the Battle began, the Bets were Three to One, and Two to One on the Butcher ; so that the Knowing ones were largely taken in. 1764 also saw John Riddell fight, who the Derby Mercury of Thursday 26 May 1785 claimed was undefeated, and an advert for Jack Slack returning to the ring, though I have yet to see a report of the result. Oxford Journal - Saturday 17 November 1764 On Monday last a Battle for Twenty Guineas was fought at Castle Bromwich, between Reddel and Dallaway, two famous Champions both of Birmingham; when Reddel proved Victorious, after an obstinate Contest of near Twenty Minutes ; in which he acquired vast Reputation as a Bruiser, as well for his coll Intrepidity, as the forcible Judgment with which he placed his Blows. There were a prodigious Concourse of People, and Bets depending on the Amount of several Hundred Pounds Monday 10 December 1764 - Dublin Courier We hear that there will be shortly a Trial of Skill in the most noble and antient Art of Boxing, between the celebrated Mr. Slack (who some Years ago defeated the redoubted Hero, Mr. Broughton) and one Wyburne of this City.- Several considerable Betts are depending upon this Occasion, and the Gentlemen Gladiators expect excellent DiversionHenry Lemoine also gives an account of this contest. From Modern Manhood MUCH about this time, or a little after-wards, a famous battle was fought at Guildford, between Thomas Juchau, a Pavior, otherwise known by the name of Disher, and one Coant, a Butcher from Clare-market. Before the fight, the odds were 4 to 1 upon Coant, and for the first 25 minutes the Pavior could scarce get a blow at his antagonist, and was knocked down five or six times. At 35 minutes, the odds were so great, that money was offered at any rate; but just then Disher changing his mode of fighting, gave him such a blow as turned the odds greatly in his favour. After three or four rounds more, the Butcher coming full up to the Pavior, and missing his stroke, fell flat on his face, and not being able to continue the contest, gave it in, and the Pavior was pronounced victorious. The engagement lasted 47 minutes. Pancratia then states that in 1765 Millsom lost to Juchau, passing the title onto him. From Pancratia August 27, 1765, Millsom, who had so successfully beat the two Meggs, fought a battle with Thomas Juchau, at Colney, near St. Alban's, in which he failed enjoying his usual triumph, Juchau proving the conqueror. The title is then soon passed onto William Darts From Pancratia May, 1766, Tom Juchau fought a famous boxing match with William Darts, a dyer, at Guildford, for 1000 guineas, which after a most severe battle of 40 minutes, was won by Darts. I am working with the assumption that these accounts are true, because there is really nothing else to go on, however these two battles are highly questionable. Henry Lemoine mentions Juchau taking part in no other contests, and states that "some time after this" he agreed never to box again as part of his marrige. I have also found no other reports of Juchau boxing. Going back to 1765, we also find an account of Darts boxing Oxford Journal - Saturday 19 January 1765 Yesterday died of his Bruises, Gregory, the famous Whitechapel Drover, who on Monday last fought the noted Dart, a Dyer in Southwark, on Putney-Common, and Warrants are issued out for apprehending him. I also found this account, which is mostly important because of a later account of a Paviour boxing, which may otherwise appear to be Juchua Derby Mercury - Friday 13 September 1765 Tuesday Morning early a Battle was fought in St. George's fields, between James Ellis, a Carman, and William Round, a Paviour, called Stick-in-the-Mud, for five Guineas a Side, besides, many Bets depending ; when, after a Contest of near twenty-two Minutes, Round beat his Antagonist ; but they were both so much bruised, that they were obliged to be carried home by their Companions ; and neither of them were able to speak when put to Bed Of the fighters of the black period, Darts is one of the better known, and honestly one I have spent less time looking into. In 1767 we find George Meggs taking part in another contest, but I have not been able to find the result Oxford Journal - Saturday 31 January 1767 A letter from Bristol say that George Meggs, the famous Hero of Pensford, in Somersetshire, who beat William Stevens, the Noted Nailer, at the Tennis Court, on which there were so many Thousand Pounds depending, is now matched to fight with Richard Hunt, a Kingswood Collier, whom he hath once beat before ; but as it was a very long Battle between them at that Time, and not altogether fairly decided at last, Hunt is the present Challenger. They are to fight on a raised Stage on Clarken Down, near Bath, for One Hundred Guineu a Side of their own Money. There will be a great deal won and lost at this Battle, if the Champions are suffered to decide it Later that year Darts fought William Stevens, The Nailor Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 06 August 1767 A boxing match for several considerable sums of money, is to be fought one day this week, between Stevens the nailer and Dart the dyer, at Colnbrook, if not prevented by the magistrates. Once again we can see there was an issue of police interferance in this era. Oxford Journal - Saturday 22 August 1767 Yesterday a Battle was fought between Stephens the Nailor and Dart the Dyer, in a Booth which was erected for that purpose in four Hours, at a Plac called Pyle, near Colnbrook, for a considerable Sum of Money : Notwithstanding the Nailor was knocked down the first Blow, the Dyer gaver out in a few Minutes, and so the Hum ended. Leeds Intelligencer - Tuesday 25 August 1767 Yesterday a severe battle was fought at Colnbrook, between the noted Dyer and the Naylor, on which upwards of 1000l. were depending. The odds, at first, were six to one in favour of the Dyer; but, after a contest of fifteen minutes, the Naylor came off conqueror, by which the knowing-ones were greatly taken in. As can be seen, the Dyer's reign was ended by Stevens shortly after it began, and not, as is generally reported by Tom Lyons in 1769. Around this time there was an especially brutal match reported between James Bromley and Samuel Freeman Derby Mercury - Friday 21 August 1767 On Monday the 10th Instant, was fought at Ashby-de-la-Zouch, a great Boxing Match, between James Bromley, a Blacksmith, of Crich, in this County, and Samuel Freeman, of Birmingham, for One Hundred Guineas. An incredible Number of People from all Parts assembled on this Occasion: The Combatants fought an Hour and a Half, and though they were both almost spent, and hardly able to stand, much Blood being spilt, and each Man most terribly bruised, yet neither would submit: At length, a Surgeon who attended, declared, if they were not immediately parted, Death must be the Consequence: Proclamation was then made, that all Wagers were void, and that it was a drawn Battle, the Seconds having interfered and parted the two Antagonists against their Will. —The Derbyshire Dons went off in Triumph, boasting their Hero walked from the Place of Action; when Freeman was obliged to be carried to bed, in a Chair Another hard fought contest was reported between Primroe and Lyton. Newcastle Chronicle - Saturday 23 May 1767 Yesterday morning the fighting butcher, known by the name Primroe, fought with one Layton, a paviour, in a field near the Foundling hospital, for a wager of 20l. besides considerable betts : The batte lasted near 32 minutes, and Primrose came off conqueror ; though both parties were so much bruised that they were carried away in a coach. It always seemed odd to me that Boxiana would ignore Stevens's later fights over a single alledged fix, and even stranger with him apparently regaining the title. A second reference to George Millsom is found around this time, him getting married! Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 29 October 1767 Sunday was married at St. Michael’s church, Mr. George Milsom, Apothecary, of this city, to Miss Fanny Hales, youngest Daughter of the late Alderman Hales. And we also see his old opponent George Meggs back in action Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 06 October 1768 Monday last the bruising match, which has been long in agitation between the notes Maggs of Pensford, and one Ellis, of Glastonbury, was decided with the space of five minutes in favour of Maggs.- Many considerable betts were depending on the issue of this battle. His brother also fought the Dyer, all be it, unsuccessfully. Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 04 May 1769 On Tuesday last, the famous bruising match between the noted Darch, the dyer, and Parfit Maggs, (brother to George Maggs, who a few years since beat the Nailer, at the Tennis-Court in the Haymarket, London,) was fought at Cannard's-Grave, near Shepton-Mallet in this county. The battle lasted 11 minutes, when victory declared for Darch.-Very considerable betts were depending, but the odds were in favour of the victor. A little after we find Stevens fighting George Millsom Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 15 June 1769 On Monday next a bruising-match between the noted Stevens, the nailor, and one George Milsom, a collier, for 50l. each side, will be fought at the Riding-School in Bristol.— Very considerable betts are depending on the issue of this battle George Millsom won this contest, which also makes me think Meggs beating the Nailor fairly is plausable. Oxford Journal - Saturday 24 June 1769 On Monday last a long depending Battle was fought at the Circular Stables in this City, between the noted William Stevens, the Nailor, and George Milsom, a Collier, of Kingswood, for Fifty Pounds a Side, where the Knowing Ones were taken in. It is supposed there were ten thousand Persons present; amoung whom were two Noblemen, and several of the principal Gentlemen of the neighbouring Countis, as well as from Wales. The Champions mounted the Stafe a little before Eight in the Evening, and fought between six and seven Minutes, when Victory was declared in Favour of Milsom However, it appears Millsom did not when the Championship in this fight, as another report says that, somehow, George Meggs is champion. There are many possibilities. One is that simply Pancratia was wrong, it is possible Meggs didn't lose the Championship, he may have regained it in as of yet lost contests, or the report may be an error, or could mean something else. Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 22 June 1769 On Monday the great bruising-match between Stevens, the Nailer, and George Milsom, a collier of Kingswood, was fought at the Riding-school in Bristol. the battle lasted about seven minutes, when victory declared for the latter. - It is thought there were present near 400 persons, and the box collection was very considerable, as great numbers paid 2s. 6d. for their admission. The betts were in favour of the Nailor till a few hours before the combat, when six to four were laid on Milsom's side, who was the favourite of the knowing-ones.- The noted Darch, who lately beat Parsitt Maggs, was second to Milsom ; and George Maggs, the present hero of England, was second to the Nailer. - Immediately after the battle, Darch challenged George Maggs to fight him for 100 guineas and the door collection ; but it is said that Maggs made no reply Pancratia also states that Darts fought around this time. From Pancratia On June 27, 1769, Bill Darts, who had long carried on a successful pugilistic career, fought and lost a long- depending battle with Lyons, a waterman, at Kingston, on Thames. Darts for the first half of the battle had a most astonishing advantage, the odds were ten to one in his favour ; Lyons, however, recovered himself, and in 45 minutes severely beat him. This fight is often said to have cost Darts the Championship, which he then reclaimed, but this appears to be incorrect. William Darts also had another contest arranged for this year Derby Mercury - Friday 01 September 1769 We now hear that the famous Boxing Match, between the noted Darts and Mr. Turner, will certainly be fought on the Race Ground, the Day after the Races. However he pulled out, claiming a hand injury. Derby Mercury - Friday 08 September 1769 This Day about Twelve o'Clock, the two Champions at Boxing, made their Appearance on the Stage, erected for the Occasion on Sinsin-Moor, when Darts, (the Dyer) pair forfeit to Mr. Wm. Turner, alledging a Lameness in one of his Hands; and this ended the Affair, which has caused so much Talk amoungst the Knowing-Ons, without any Trial of Manhood. Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 14 September 1769 We hear from Derby, that when the two boxing champions, Darts and Turner met, the former declined fighting, alledging a lameness in one of his hands. As previously stated it is unclear how George Meggs was Champion in 1769, as the reports of fights I have seen would suggest it would belong to George Millsom. Thankfully this was soon cleared up. In the meantime William Darts would fight the acclaimed Death, though Boxiana and Pugilistica both state that by this point Death was past his best. From Pancratia On March 25, 1770, a battle was fought between Bill Darts and Stephen Oliver ; although the latter displayed great skill and excellent bottom, he was obliged to yield to the superior strength of Darts, who at this time was considered the hardest hitter through the whole range of pugilists. Though the real name of the unsuccessful candidate for pugilistic fame in the battle just related, is Oliver, he is more generally known by the nick-name of Death, said to have been given him through the paleness of his visage, during his pugilistic contests ; he formerly had won several battles, and was one of Brousrhton's greatest favorites. He was well made, very light, never exceeding 12 stone ; not possessing much strength, he was fully compensated by his astonishing agility; Oliver has fought more battles than any man in England, and though frequently over matched, often conquered, but his sparring, notwithstanding it was thought excellent some years back, is now equalled by any pupil of Mendoza's or Humphries's; this indisputably shews the moderns have improved in science. This is sometimes listed as a Championship fight, with Darts becoming the Champion once again. In light of the previous finds, however, I do not think this is true. Later this same year George Meggs and George Millsom would, seemingly once again, do battle. Middlesex Journal May 8th 1770 Maggs and Milsom have agreed to fight for one hundred pounds at Frome, on Monday next the 14th instant Bath Chronicle and Weekly Gazette - Thursday 24 May 1770 On Monday last the much talked-of buising-match between George Maggs, of Pensford, and George Milsom, of Kingswood, was decided on Leigh down near Bristol, within four minutes, in favour of the latter.- Very large sums were depending on the issue of this battle, and many of Magg's friends were so sanguine in his behalf, that bets of two to one against Milsom were laid to a considerable amount. I have speculated before if these later bouts were confused and turned into the bouts in 1762, however I believe the 1763 advertisement suggests against this. There really is a lot of ambiguity with so little information, much of which isn't very reliable. Another bout from this time featured Tom Juchau's brother, this one too was rather brutal. Reading Mercury - Monday 11 June 1770 Thursday noon a brusing match was fought in Moor-fields, between a Butcher, and one Disher, brother to the noted fighter Disher, which lasted 75 minutes, when Disher was carried off with no appearance of life, and the Butcher was so much brused that it is though he cannot recover. I am yet to find another fight of George Millsom, perhaps his fight with Meggs was his last. It is therefore unclear what happened next. The tradional lineage is that in 1771, Peter Corcoran defeated Darts to become Champion of England From Pancratia May 16, 1771, during Epsom races, a battle was fought between Bill Darts, and Peter Corcoran, for £100 a side. Captain O'Kelly made the match, and backing his countryman to a large amount, but previous to the battle, gave Dart £100 to play CROSS; accordingly when they met, after a little sparring, Corcoran gave Darts a blow on the side of the head, which drove him against the rail of the stage, when he immediately gave in. It was so evident that Darts had FOUGHT BOOTY, that none of the sporting men would afterwards back him: thus by one dirty action Darts lost all the fame he had been for so many years acquiring. This match too was claimed to be a fix, apart from by Boxiana. Oddly I found a report that appears to have been that match, perhaps this was a rematch, however it is odd that he'd be expected to win after throwing the first won, or otherwise losing it Oxford Journal - Saturday 30 May 1772 Yesterday afternoon a great bruising match was fought on Epsom Downs, between the famous Darts the Dyer, and one Cotrell. The odds, before the engagement began, were ten to one on the former, but after two minutes conflict, Darts was beat,, to the great disappointment of the Knowing Ones, several of whom were pretty deeply taken in. It also appears that this news report is calling this match a fix, so presumably there was an error with the date at some point Stamford Mercury - Thursday 18 June 1772 It is said that a certain sporting Captain, who so warmly espoused the late boxing match at Epsom, between the Hibernian Publican and Darts the Dyer, cleared no less than 1500l. by the battle, the conquerred party 500l. by bye bets. Two years after his fight with Millsom, it appear George Meggs would fight again, however once again unsuccessfully. Public Advertiser - July 22, 1772 We hear from Cirencester, that the famous Maggs was beat by his Antagonist Stanley, after a Contest of Half an Hour Corcoran was then reported to have lost a match in the 1775-04-22 The Middlesex Journal And Evening Advertiser (page 2), to William Allen, however in a report of his fight with Sellers he is described as having never been beaten before, and that Sellers became Stevens would also fight Sellers Oxford Journal - Saturday 05 September 1778 Yesterday a great Boxing-Match was fought on a Stage erected for that Purpose on Hounslow-Heath, between the celebrated Stevens, a Nailor, and Sellers, the Sawyer; when after two or three Rounds, Victory decleared in Favour of the latter. The Odds, two to one on the Victor. After this a very desperate Battle was fought for thirty Minutes between two Pupils of the First, which proved as severe a Contest as has been known for some Time. Not a Shock-Head within twenty Miles of London but was present on the above Occasion. The list of bankrupts in Norfolk Chronicle - Saturday 26 April 1783 includes "Thomas Juchau, of St. Leonard, Shoreditch, paviour." Also from the list of bankrupts in Hereford Journal - Wednesday 09 December 1795 "Thomas Juchau and Thomas Arceer Juchau of Bateman's-row, Shoreditch, Middlesex, paviours" And there are several other similar ones including Kentish Gazette - Wednesday 23 April 1783 Thomas Juchau, of the parish of St. Leonard Shoreditch in the county of Middlesex, Pavier, Dealer and Chapman ; to surrender on the 29th of April instant, and 6th and 31st of May next, at eleven each day, at Guildhall, London. George Meggs is reported on Cyberboxingzone to have had 3 later contests, two in 1787 and one in 1790. And in the 1800's he was reported to still be alive and well off Monthly Mirror May 1, 1803 Bath, April 29.—On Monday died in this city, George Ring, formerly a baker, and celebrated as one of the first pugilists in the kingdom. He was rather under the middle size, but the quickness of his eye, and the muscular power of his arm, and his general activity, brought him always off victorious, though opposed to men of far superior size and strength. To, his method of fighting, Ward, Mendoza, Humphries, and other noted heroes of the fist, it is said, owed their celebrity; for he introduced what is termed the present scientific mode of combat. But the glory of George Ring was of short duration: hard blows, frequently experienced, and a life of continued dissipation, brought premature old age, poverty, and neglect; at a period when he ought to have been in the bloom of health and vigour, every “puny whipster” could “knock him about the scone, and he durst not tell him of his action of battery.” As a contrast to the above character, we cannot avoid noticing that the celebrated George Maggs, whose fame rang through this country nearly fifty years ago as the champion of England, when he beat the noted Stephens, the nailor, in London, is now living in this city, a hale, hearty, respectable old man; a handsome and venerable pile of stately ruins. Thank you for reading, I thought this period deserved a write up, I'm not the best at prose, but I hope this was reasonably easy to follow as a single narritive, once again, if you have any more information, especially if it changes what I have found in terms of lineage, please post it. Thanks to Senya for several of the newspaper articles in this short series. This was all written in a single day, so also please inform me of any writing errors and I will correct them
Effort And Knowledge Is The Best Way To Profitability At The Track!!
I believe that effort and knowledge of horse racing can lead to profits that will boggle most handicapper's mind. But concentrating on the right types of bets and when to take a shot is probably the most important factor. A lot of handicappers believe in taking a shot at big money and hope to get lucky because that is what it takes to hit a P3, P4, P5 or P6. Others who prefer to bet speed figures and favorites will have to settle for a few hundred a couple times a month, if they are good at handicapping. But serious handicappers who want to slow down later in life and maybe even semi-retire from the work force will be best serve learning the game of breeding and learn when to take a shot and what type of bet to use. The payoffs are there and has always been in my 40 years of handicapping. I pretty much tried every angle you could possibly imagine but most lead down a road of futility. Yes, I tried the trainer's angle, the jockey's angle, the owner's angle, speed figures angle, up and down in class angles, last race win angle and numerous others. They all have their up and downs, like all angles, but that is because human thinking comes into play. One of the first angle I learned not to follow was the "expert" angle because their knowledge is no better than mine and they will tend to land on favorites to try to make a good impression, not to pick winners for others. Those of you who follow my posts knows I will usually try to identify horses that are getting good odds and could have a good shot to win. I do this to identify which horse that I am willing to take a shot on to WP mostly. But on exactas, trifectas, and supers, it is important to at least think about adding more favorite types to the equation. These are the types of bets you can make a serious profit with and you do not have to wager a fortune to do so. But you will need to get an edge that most others do not believe in or even ever thought about trying. The edge I use is breeding. I have mentioned the order of preference that I look over a racing form with. I start by scanning through every horses breeding, even the ones that look like they have poor form. This normally takes about five minutes and I do this to identify which horse(s) I want to concentrate on first when I start my serious handicapping. I then read the condition of the race, focusing mainly on the distance they are racing today. After reading the race conditions, I start eliminating horses that I feel their breeding suggest they would prefer another distance, either shorter or longer. Sometimes I am wrong and after the race, I will go back and look at the sire and broodmare sire to determine if I miss anything, for future reference. Once I have done this, it usually narrows my choices to 6-7 horses that I want to consider(12 horse fields). I group the remaining horses in three groups: front running, slightly off the pace and late runners. I then try to determine which horse is in the best shape for this race and that does not necessary mean one that won or even ran in the money in his last. Every horse has form cycles where they peak and then not do as well, though they may still have won their last. Less than 5% of winners runs the exact same race twice in a row and that is obvious if you look at their race to race speed figures, which now supposely includes track variant. I look for horses that may have went wide in their last and lost all chance or one that looks like he got trapped on the rail and could not clear until it was too late. Horses that has ran at least 5 times since his last three month break or rest period has a distinct advantage over a horse that is making his first start since a similar or longer break, especially if his trainer does not prepare him properly(either guess wrong to what the horse needs or simply does not know). A trainer is very important in the prepareness and conditioning of every horse and the trainers that realize this are the ones that win frequently. Last. I go over the breeding of the last few horses I like and try to match their breeding to the distance and surface of the race. Most times, it will be one that fits better than the others. But when I find one that fits perfectly, I am usually cashing a WP ticket on that horse and will be set up for an exacta, trifecta or super where the big bucks are, if other horses I like the best also decides to try their best. It is hard but well worth the reward a majority of the time. I am going to give you a couple of examples of how breeding works. I bet CD last Saturday and since they were having an all stakes P4 on their last four races, I put my emphasis on those four races, which turned out to be a mistake on my part. In the 4th race, I like a horse called Grade to win and I thought only one horse(Bravado) could beat him, so I boxed them in an exacta. It paid $141 on a $2 exacta. Bravado was a son of Awesome Again and his dam was a daughter of Cee's Tizzy, the sire of Tiznow. Grade was a son of Overanalyze and his broodmare sire was Grand Slam, a son of Mr Prospector son Gone West. Since Swiping Dan had ran 2nd in his first start and getting switched to a better jockey, I thought he was the one(and the crowd made him 2nd favorite) to include on my tri box, which I did. I was looking at Quality Rolls as another possible longshot to include in my super box but at the last minute decided not to bet the super(decided I was betting late P4 & P5 instead). My bets was looking very good until inside the 1/16 pole when Quality Rolls came flying out of the back of the pack and finished third, causing me a nice trifecta but because of my own reluctance, I let a $3800 super get by me. And that was not the bad one. In the Pocahontas S(last race). both my P4 & P5 was useless. But my best pick of the day was Patrona Margarita, a grand daughter of Pulpit and broodmare sire was Naevus, a son of Mr Prospector, whose ML odds was 30-1. I like Upset Brewing and Sunny Skies the best for their class, though Kelly's Humor had beaten them both last out, though they finished up in a 14:50 for the last eighth of that stakes. But I could not leave out Primo Extremo, another daughter of Overanalyze, who I thought would be hard to run down based of 2 wins in 2 tries. I ended up boxing Patrona Margarita and Sunny Skies in my exacta, added Primo Extremo in my tri and box the super leaving Kelly's Humor off my ticket. And again it came back to bite me as Kelly's Landing came from mid pack late to nose out Sunny Skies, costing my an exacta, trifecta and super. Total payout on those three bets was over $19,000. My thought has always been to box but if I had keyed that race instead in that instance, it would have been a big benefit to me. If I had paid more attention to these two races instead of trying to hit what I believe are gimmick bets, I probably would have came out much better than I did. Money management is an important key that you will do as a handicapper and can literally be the difference between making a little at the track or making a life changing sum. Or losing major sums. For those of you who are non believers in breeding after their first few races, I encourage you to look up the horse Trade Storm. He raced in Dubai and owned by Darley Stables and tolled in their lowest level for 19 starts before being purchased by Qatar Racing (the second biggest owner in Dubai). He won one of their low level handicap in his 20th race and then won a G2 in his next start. The difference was Darley and his trainers was putting the horse near the lead and when Qatar Racing brought him, their trainer decided to get him to relax early and make one late run. He won later go on to run 3rd in the G1 Woodbine Turf Mile and returned the next year to win that same race before running 3rd in the 2014 G1 BC Turf Mile. His sire Trade Fair was a G3 winning sprint son of Zafonic, a G1 winning son of Gone West who won the English 2000 Guineas. His broodmare sire is Slip Anchor, a son of champion Shirley Heights and from the same broodmare sire line as Animal Kingdom, won the G1 Epsom Derby during his brief racing career. He always had the breeding but needed someone who would let him run his race instead of being forced to run a style that did not suit him. This is more common in racing all over the world than you could ever believe. Another breeding reference that I would encourage you to look at is Ultimate Eagle. He is a son of Mizzen Mast who hails from the same line as Uncle Mo but three generations before. Mizzen Mast also had a more distance loving female family than did Uncle Mo. Ultimate Eagle's dam is Letithappencaptain who won minor stakes throughout her racing career on turf but she is a daughter of Captain Bodgit, who ran second in the G1 Ky Derby to Silver Charm as the favorite after winning the G1 Florida Derby and G1 Wood Memorial, beating Pulpit in his last two races. Ultimate Eagle began his career with three sprints on the all weather track at Hollywood Park and showed late interest though no threat to the winner in each. Sent to Del Mar and stretched out on turf for his fourth start, he was with the leader throughout tracking a fast pace and broke his maiden. Entered in an $80,000 OC in his next, he set a slow pace and wired the field, again at 1 1/16 mile turf. He was then entered in the G2 Oak Tree Derby at SA. Off at 34-1, he set a fast pace and when challenged in deep stretch, he found another gear to hang on to win at 1 1/8 mile turf. He beat a lot of top horses in this race. Entered next in the 2011 G1 Hollywood Derby at 1 1/4 miles and off at 14-1, he set a leisure pace for six furlongs and then kicked in to win while not seriously threaten. The horse that followed him all the way around was Imagining, a G1 winning son of Giant's Causeway, who did not have enough early speed to harm Ultimate Eagle. It was his fifth start before anyone finished ahead of Ultimate Eagle on turf and if you were savy enough to believe in breeding, you would had the opportunity to collect $177.60 for $16 of total bets for $2 WP on his four wins. This is a prime example of why I turn my focus to breeding and will do so for the rest of my betting days. Good Luck and have fun. Edit: Ultimate Eagle's first crop of 2 YOs starts racing in 2018. He is a stallion that is siring in the state of California. He is a G1 winner on turf, but also won the G2 Strub S on conventional dirt. He has the bloodlines to throw speedy types who will carry their speed over a route, especially if allowed to dictate their own pace.
The sign up thread will be posted Tuesday. The Tips thread will be posted Wednesday. Please have your tips posted by lunch-time of the race..
Please format your previews something similar to this.
When you post your selection, please confirm if you're advising to Win, Place, E/W, Forecast, whatever, how many points to stake (this is generally done in 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 and 3 points, but it's up to your discretion), and what odds to take and with which betting firm or if you're taking the SP.
My Kentucky Derby Undercard Picks And Horizontal Picks
I have a couple of horses I will be singling in the horizontal wagers on the Ky Derby undercard. They are the horses I like the best but all these races has 4-5 horses that could win without it being an upset. I will start with race 3 which is the first race of the early P5. Race 3: is a race that is wide open but mostly because most in here shows limited ability. I will use two horses that looks like they should be close early in a field full of late runners. 3)Langdarma(12-1) looks like the class of the speed in here and showed speed to the top of the stretch in his last at OP that finished in decent time. He won a starter allowance in his race before that, also at OP, in wire to wire fashion and also finished in good time for that track. 6)Irish Freedom(7-2) looks like he could be the one prompting the pace and makes his first start for Brad Cox. He has recently chased Accelerate and City Of Light in stakes races at SA, the recent 1-2 finishers in the G2 Oaklawn Park Handicap. 4th Race: is a maiden race at one mile on the grass. There are several in here with a good chance to win and it will come down to who gets the best trip. There are two I will use in my horizontal wagers. 10) Zero Gravity(20-1) exits out of a one mile turf race where he finished 2nd at FG in a good time for that turf course after being wide throughout. Joe Sharp trains and he is using Adam Beschizza, a jockey whose mother is well respected as a trainer in England. He is a fairly new jockey but the kid knows how to ride on grass. 9) Irish Territory(5-1) is a son of Declaration Of War(War Front) who nearly broke his maiden in a G3 stakes race at Saratoga last year. The War Front line horses are usually live on grass. I will also mention that I like a first time starter in here but will use him in a small trifecta bet only. 1)Headsail(30-1)is a son of the speedy Mizzen Mast(from the sire line of World Approval, winner of 2017 G1 BC Turf Mile)) and his broodmare sire is Hennessy(grandsire of Scat Daddy and Beholder). His trainer is not well known but she has trained two G1 winners and they both won G1s on grass in Kentucky. 5th Race: is an allowance o/c for $100000 race for older horse at one mile on dirt. McCraken is making his 1st start this year and I will bet that he needs a race, but it is anyone guess. 6)Behavorial Bias(5-1) looks to be improving and ran a close fourth to several who are competing in the G2 CD Handicap later today. 9)Dazzling Gem(9-2) looks like he is as ready as any in here and the horses he has ran against won several graded stakes. He is a better fit against these type than his last race. 6th Race: is the G1 Humana Distaff at 7 furlongs on dirt. 7 of 8 horses could win and it would be no big surprise. However, since I never spread too much, I have picked 2 and will go with them. 4)Skye Diamonds(5-1) needed her first two starts back and her works before each race pointed to that. Since her last, her works have picked up to where they were last year. Mike Smith takes over as the jockey and she should be tough. 8)American Gal(7-2) just missed in her first start back after an eight month break against this type of field. She is the one to beat off her best race at this distance. 7th Race: is the G2 CD Distaff Turf Mile and is another very competitive race. Again, I have decided to use 2 horses that I feel has the best chance of winning. This race seems to be a little light on pace and I will try to get a longshot home in here. This is the last leg of the early P5 and the first leg of the P6. 3)Dream Awhile(7-2) looks like the classic just off the pace type that should pounce if a speed duel materializes. Her sire War Front is one of the better turf sires around in the U.S. and her broodmare sire, Montjeu, was the best siring son of Sadler's Wells until Galileo came along and took the crown. However, Montjeu was grandsire of last year's Epsom Derby winner Wings Of Eagle at 40-1. 10)Pyscho Sister(30-1) looks to be faster than anyone in here early and will set the pace. Her sire, Freud, is a full brother to Giant's Causeway and leading sire in New York for more than a decade. Her broodmare sire, Cahill Road, was a full brother to Unbridled and would been one of the favorites to win the 1991 G1 Ky Derby but pulled up lame after winning the G1 Wood Memorial in fast time and was retired. Psycho Sister was claimed three starts back by the dad of a young upstart trainer, who has already claimed several and won stakes with after a few equipment changes and a couple of test runs. 8th race: is the G2 Churchill Downs S at 7 furlongs and a top field of sprinters are entered to give it their best shot. 3)Imperial Hint(9-5) is strictly the one to beat. He can set the pace or rated just off the pace if someone else is determined to set it. He did everything right in last year's BC Sprint except win but this field looks not quite as tough. 5)Outplay(10-1) is one I will use as insurance in case my top pick falters. His last is good enough to win this with a slight regression from Imperial Hint. 6)Awesome Saturday(20-1) is one I will use in a small trifecta box only because his last indicates he is putting it all together, much like Outplay. 9th Race: is the G2 American Turf at 1 1/16 miles on grass for 3 YOs. 6)River Boyne(5-1) is my pick to win this race and he is the first of three straight singles for me. However, I will use the 13)Dragon Drew(20-1) in an exacta box and throw in 2)Inscom (15-1) on a small tri box. Dragon Drew just missed 2nd in his last against Analyze It, who remained unbeaten in 3 starts including 2 stakes races. 10th Race: G3 Pat Day Mile at one mile on dirt(formerly known as the Derby Trial). 7)Madison's Luna(5-1) will be my second single in a row. If he runs either of his first two races back, he should have little problem winning this. I will use 9)Givemeaminit(20-1) in an exacta box and throw in 1)National Flag(4-1) on a small tri box. 11th Race: G1 Turf Classic at 1 1/8 miles on the grass. 9)Yoshida(15-1) will be the last of my singles in the P6. His only bad race was at 1 1/4 miles on grass and that is a little further than his bloodlines suggests he will go in top company. However, he is a neck short of being unbeaten at this distance and he had trouble in that race, probably causing him to come up short. He tries hard every race and makes others beat him. 12th Race: Ky Derby at 1 1/4 miles for 3 YOs. 12)Enticed(30-1)was one of my two early picks to win this year's derby and I see no reason to abandon ship now. Every time I have, it has came back to bite me. My other pick did not improve as a 3 YO and did not make the cut. 6)Good Magic(12-1) was one I like all along but will not bet low odds in the future due to the uncertainty of injuries or horses regressing. If he runs the same race as he did in the BC Juvenile, then the rest is running for second, including my top pick. 11)Bolt D'Oro(8-1) is one I will include now in my P6 simply because Castellano decided to get off and Espinoza picked up the mount. Castellano has thus far rode like a nervous jockey in the derby but many jockeys have displayed this symptom in front of the largest crowd they will ever race in front of. While he has not improve from 2 YO to 3 YO, no other in here has really proven they have either that will be able to handle the distance. But, then again, he has only two races to improve while most others had 3 or more.
Breeding I Watch For When Handicapping(Mostly Turf But Some Dirt)
Betting turf races has always been my favorite type of race to bet. Breeding is a huge factor in determining the outcome of most races on grass because the thoroughbred breed actually raced only on grass in Europe(mainly England & Ireland)when it was first developed. Dirt racing was mostly developed in America but most of the original dirt horse was brought in from England. The first horse I will mention will be Hyperion. Hyperion was a son of 1918 English TC Winner Gainsborough and his dam was Selene, a daughter of Chaucer, a son of St Simon who was considered to be his sire best broodmare sire(Selene was his best producing daughter). Hyperion,himself can be found in the pedigrees(first four generations)of at least 2 dozen Ky. Derby winners. But he won both the Epsom Derby and St Leger after finishing a fast closing 3rd in the 2000 Guineas in 1933 and was actually a much better turf sire than a dirt sire. He is broodmare sire of Nearctic(inbred to Chaucer), who would become the sire of Northern Dancer and his 3/4 brother Icecapade. Hyperion's son Stardust is grandsire of Noholme II who was brought to US from Australia where he won the Cox Plate and would dominate American turf breeding from 5 furlongs to one & 1/4 miles for 20 years. He was the sire of No Double(mentioned in another post). Stardust was also on the female side of a horse named Joey Bob who was a grandson of Nasrullah that hated the dirt but sired many graded stakes winner on turf(usually from 1 mile and up). Northern Dancer needs no introduction because of what his best sons have done on turf(mostly in Europe up to one & 1/2 miles). But if you were to look at what his best sons have done on dirt in the U.S., you will find that their best distance is 1 1/8 mile and under(much like Mr Prospector). He does have a few sons in Canada that won at 1 & 1/4 mile but usually in races restricted to Canadian Bred horses(Queen's Plate, etc). Even his son Deputy Minister found 1 & 1/4 miles beyond his capabilities but he would go on to sire several that had no problem with that distance (especially with fillies like Open Mind). Some of Northern Dancer's sons you should keep in mind when betting turf races include Nijinsky II(distance on turf(1 & 1/2 mile)but sprinting on dirt(no farther than 1 1/16 mile), El Gran Senor(turf distance only), The Minstrel(turf distance only), Danzig(both turf and dirt, especially sprinting but occasionally distance), Sadler's Wells(the premier distance turf sire in the world today and has sired a few dirt distance runners from limited opportunities). His son Galileo is sire of Frankel and has being the leading sire in Europe almost every year since his sire's death. Icecapade also was known for siring many speedy types who on dirt often faded but on turf sired many that would keep on going up to a mile & 1/8. The best of his sons was Clever Trick, whose foals liked dirt but especially became extremely tough to run down on turf. His two best dirt sons were Phone Trick(10 starts 10 wins, all in California up to 7 furlongs)who never ran on turf but sired several foals who loved sprinting on turf. His other son, Favorite Trick, was an unbeaten 2 YO champion in the U.S. and early book favorite(and beaten favorite)for the Ky Derby who found the distance a little to far for his liking. Another son of Nearctic called Explodent was a major producer of turf runners from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles and if you let one of his foals set a leisure pace, then 1 1/4 mile was within reach. Explodent also got some good dirt runners but their limit was usually around 1 1/16 mile. His dam was from the sire line of Dr Fager and the female sire line of In Reality. No Double was champion handicap dirt horse in the U.S. in 1969 & 1970. But most of his foals hated the dirt with a passion but would almost always wake up when put on turf. Noholme II was similar but he did have several sons that love sprinting on dirt and were very tough to catch including Shecky Greene(also known for siring very fast turf sprinters). Joey Bob's foals also often woke up when placed on the turf but none more shocking than Skiskabob who upset the then G2 Louisiana Downs Hcp at 1 3/8 miles at odds of more than 80-1. Skiskabob would also later run 2nd in the G3 Ark-La-Tex Hcp on dirt at 70-1 behind longshot winner Inevitable Leader(from the Halo sire line)at 106-1. Princequillo is another sire line you do not want to forget about whether it is turf or dirt, especially in distance races. He is sire of Round Table(son Poker was BM sire of Seattle Slew), Speak John (sire of Spend A Buck), etc and was broodmare sire of Secretariat, Sham, Sir Gaylord(Secretariat's 1/2 brother), Kris S(broodmare sire of Zenyatta), and many, many more. Roberto is another horse whose foals excel both on dirt or turf, especially in distance racing. Dynaformer(sire of Barbaro), Kris S(sire of Arch, BM sire of Zenyatta), Brian's Time, Sunshine Forever(U.S. distance turf champion)and many, many more. Also every region has one or two sires that seems to breed horses that excel more in that region that all others. For example, for years, In Excess dominated California racing up to 1 1/8 mile on both surfaces but more so on turf. If you enjoy playing that region, you may want to keep your eyes open for Candy Ride's foals as they will more than likely upset quite a few of races(especially turf up to 1 1/8 mile)before all is said and done. Another sire you may want to keep your eyes open for is Uncle Mo as his pedigree says his foals will love the turf.
The Melbourne Cup - Not the Victory You Thought It Was
For those of you not Down Under, the Melbourne Cup (held today) is Straya's Grand National (or Epsom Derby), the US' Kentucky Derby, Hong Kong's QE2 Cup and so on - legend (or the bookies at least) has it that the entire nation stops while it's run. A lot (and I mean a shitload) of money gets turned over, and not just on the betting - breeders, stables, jockeys, fashion houses, veterinarians, vineyards and telly channels all fight with each other for a piece of the action. Every year, the winning horse (and its owner, its stable owner and its jockey) are the toast of the nation. This year was the same, except for one slight difference: it just so happens the jockey was female. Can you guess where this might be heading, children...? Oh, well done class. Yes, this was, above all else, a victory for... FEMINISM!! How excitement.
Michelle Payne, 30, rode Prince of Penzance to victory in Australia’s biggest race on Tuesday, coincidentally wearing the colours of the suffragettes: purple, white and green.
Yes, because no-one else has ever worn those colours in the entire 154 year history of the Melbourne Cup.
“I would like to say that, you know, it’s a very male-dominated sport and people think we are not strong enough and all of the rest of it ... you know what? It’s not all about strength, there is so much more involved, getting the horse into a rhythm, getting the horse to try for you, it’s being patient..."
Yes, so much this. Because none - not one - of the other 153 winning male jockeys had ever figured that out (we'll completely ignore all the thousands of other male and the three female jockeys who didn't win cos obviously they hadn't thought about this at all). This, then, isn't just a victory for teh Wimminz, but also A Big Victory for all those chauvinist bastard male jockeys who've doubtless learned a thing or two. Feminism - where Winners Are Grinners.
The dosage profile most handicappers wants to follow today is severely flawed. It is that way because since the original chef-de-race sires were released, there may have been a dozen added from more than 500,000 possibilities, and this includes Mr Prospector and Alydar. Since a profile must have a fairly equal balance of sprinters to distance horse to come close to be accurate, anyone can see the problem. I researched the triple crown races from the 1960 to current and there have been 22 horses that have not qualified based on the 4.00 DI and 1.25 CD theory. 10 of those occurred in the Preakness which technically the DI should be on the high side and even slightly over, 5 in the Belmont and 7 in the Ky Derby, including the last 3 derby winners. The system has been broken 15 times since 1990, giving further evidence is it due more to updates than any other factor. Before then, it was broken 7 times including 5 times in the Preakness, twice in the Belmont and none in the Ky Derby. A few of these races were not really eligible for the system due to the natural of the tracks, which stipulates for fast tracks only. Starting in 1960, Greek Money was the first to break the dosage in the 1962 Preakness. Information on him is limited but it looks like the Preakness Stakes was his longest win but also he won mostly on grass. His grand sire was Hyperion who was better known as a grass sire but is in the pedigree of at least a dozen Ky Derby winners. His broodmare sire was Nimbus, a son of Nearco, who won the English 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby on grass. However, he sired little as a stallion and should not have been a chef-de-race. But his dam comes from an important dam line and while fillies are not considered in dosage, she probably is the most likely reason Greek Money broke the dosage. Damascus was the second to break dosage and he did so in both the 1967 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. He also would later win the Travers Stakes at 1 1/4 miles and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, ran then at 2 miles against older horses. just to mention a couple of races. His sire, Sword Dancer, also won the Belmont Stakes, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 3 YO among his many wins and was one of the stoutest bred horse you will ever see. He also sired many with distance capabilities and though he was a better turf sire, there is not one good reason he would not sire a distance loving son. Then add Phalaris, Selene, and Blue Larkspur, all three 5x4 inbred into Damascus, and you have the making of a distance loving horse. Phalaris, back then, is what Nearco is today and actually is the sire line of Nearco and many more. Selene was St Simon's best producing grand daughter whose two full brothers sons in Damascus pedigree is grand sire of Tom Fool(sire of Buckpasser and Tim Tam) and great grand sire of Native Dancer. She is also the dam of Hyperion. Dosage simply missed one on this one because pedigree is definitely there. Master Derby was next in the 1975 Preakness to break the dosage and according to dosage was the most speed oriented of them all. His sire, Dust Commander, won the 1970 Ky Derby becoming the first grand son of Bold Ruler to win the Ky Derby. His broodmare sire, Royal Coinage, was a champion 2 YO sprinter but also sired Venetian Way, who won the 1960 Ky Derby. However, this sire line was better at siring sprinters than distance type runners and since he is sire of the dam, it should have affected his pedigree pretty considerably. The 3rd dam is a daughter of Crafty Admiral, whose grand sire is sire of three Ky Derby winners and a TC winner and his broodmare sire is none other than War Admiral, also a TC winner. Since I believe the dam has the most influence in a pedigree, I have to agree that he should be over but not near as much or as speed oriented as they are saying. Aloma's Ruler was next in the 1982 Preakness S. His sire, Iron Ruler, tried against the best throughout his career and ran 2nd four straight times in top preps for the Ky Derby before his owner decided to pass and wait for the Preakness. Since he should have needed help getting that little bit of extra distance, he was bred to a daughter of Native Charger, a G1 winning son of Native Dancer. Aloma's Ruler's second dam complete in all the big filly races of her time, though they were not graded back then, including a close 2nd in the 1 1/2 mile CCA Oaks. He should have been borderline for the distance, at worst, but dosage placed him significantly over, so I would have to disagree with this finding. Conquistador Cielo was next in a muddy edition of the Belmont. He too had a fairly high dosage but one of the main rules of dosage is it does not consider anything but a fast dirt track. He was a son of Mr Prospector who has always been known for passing on his mud loving ability. Conquistador Cielo became Mr Prospector's first foal that ever won at 1 1/4 mile or further and the reason is in the dam family. Conquistador Cielo's broodmare sire, Bold Commander, a son of Bold Ruler, sired 1970 Ky Derby winner Dust Commander. His third dam was a daughter of Tim Tam, who was on his way to victory in the Belmont S to complete a TC sweep when he snapped his sesamoid bone a few yards from the finish and finished 2nd. Fourth Dam, Dustwhirl, is a full sister to TC winner Whirlaway and was a top producer in her own right. The Belmont was the only time Conquistador Cielo ever won at 1 1/4 miles or further, so I would have to agree with dosage on this one. Snow Chief was next in the 1986 Preakness Stakes. Dosage said he could not successfully negotiate a 1 1/4 mile in top company and he hit that imaginary brick wall in the Ky Derby and finished 11th as the heavy favorite. He had beaten Ferdinand the only two times they met before the Ky Derby, in the Hollywood Futurity & Santa Anita Derby, but Ferdinand got the biggest prize in the Ky Derby. Snow Chief came back in The Preakness and won easily by 6 lengths. Both his sire Reflected Glory and broodmare sire Snow Sporting came from sire lines that produced many top distance runners. Apparently they did not sire enough to warrant consideration to be a chef-de-race and the dam line was slightly tilt towards speed, also. So I will be neutral on this one, but tend to agree with assessment. Prairie Bayou was next in the 1993 Preakness. Prairie Bayou ran nothing like his sire, Little Missouri, who liked to get the lead and put others to sleep with a slow pace. His broodmare sire, Wavering Monarch, did his best running from slightly off the pace but he is the sire of Maria's Mon, who had a similar style to his sire but has sired two Ky Derby winners. However, Prairie Bayou's trainer seemed to recognized the dam is inbred to Tom Fool's two best sons, Buckpasser and Tim Tam(near TC winner) who both had a style he employed. Prairie Bayou had finished a fast closing second in the Ky Derby as the leader of that year's 3 YO crop, so the Preakness was no real surprise. Unfortunately, he broke a cannon bone in the Belmont Stakes and had to be put down. And since Wavering Monarch's dam is inbred to supreme and cluster mare La Troienne, who also is the sixth dam in the female family, I would tend to disagree with the final assessment. Just proof that dams do mean a lot to pedigrees. Louis Quatorze is next as winner in the 1996 Preakness. His sire, Sovereign Dancer, is a son of Northern Dancer whose dam, Bold Princess, is a daughter of Bold Ruler. Sovereign Dancer is bred throughout his pedigree with racing royalty but did not display that on the track or at breeding, other than being sire of Gate Dancer. Louis Quatorze's broodmare sire, On To Glory, was a half brother to Ruffian, and showed promise but ended up being an average sire and runner at best in the end. His daughter, On To Royalty, was by far his best running foal and producer, so she definitely had influence in the way Louis Quatorze ran. But I will agree with dosage assessment, his speed should have been a little high. Real Quiet is next as winner of the 1998 Ky Derby and Preakness and just missed winning a triple crown. Real Quiet's sire was Quiet American, a son of Fappiano, who was a late developing runner who stunned the bettors when he came from last and easily won the G1 NYRA Mile H(now Cigar Mile H)as a 5 YO, breaking the track record in the process. Quiet American's broodmare sire, Dr Fager, owns the world record for a mile on dirt, set while carrying 134 lbs. His 2nd dam Quiet Charm, is also 2nd dam of Dare And Go, the horse responsible for snapping Cigar's 16 race winning streak. Real Quiet's broodmare sire is Believe It, third in the Ky Derby and Preakness to Affirmed and Alydar. But where he really picks up class and distance capabilities starts at his 2nd dam, Meadow Blue, a full sister to near TC winner Majestic Prince. His 4th dam, Your Hostess, is a full sister to Your Host, who is best known as sire of 5 Time US Champion Kelso. So I absolutely totally disagree with dosage and its profiling on this one. This one and the next one I will list convinced me the dosage system was flawed and if I wanted to use breeding, I would have to research it myself. It took me a while to figure out how, but that is what I now require before betting. Charismatic won the 1999 Ky Derby and Preakness and he is another one whose TC was denied due to injury after seemingly home free. Charismatic's sire Summer Squall, is a 1/2 to A.P. Indy and ran 2nd in the 1990 Ky Derby to Unbridled before winning the Preakness, beating that same rival. Charismatic's broodmare sire, Drone, won all 4 of his starts before being injured and retired. Drone's sire, Sir Gaylord, was a 1/2 brother to Secretariat and his best son, Sir Ivor, was a champion in Europe and bred on the same line as Drone. With sires of Foolish Pleasure and Native Dancer in the dam line, along with being inbred 5x5 to Mahmoud, Charismatic's pedigree was screaming for more distance, definitely not less. Simply cannot fathom why dosage says he is over on dosage and would prefer lesser distance. Commendable won the 2000 Belmont Stakes by setting a slow pace and then having just enough left to hold off Ky Derby 2nd Aptitude. Commendable's sire Gone West, was a high class runner whose best distances top out at 1 1/16 miles, but he ran against the best of his year which included Alysheba, Bet Twice, Lost Code, Gulch and Cryptoclearance. He was best known for siring sprinters but occasionally could sire a decent distance turf horse. His bloodlines hinted that he should be able to, too. Commendable's broodmare sire, In Reality, also was best known for sprinters to mid distances horse. However, Commendable's dam, Brought Twice, is a 1/2 sister to Fappiano and they hail from Cequillo dam line, a daughter of Princequillo out of Boldness by Mahmoud. Despite the presence of Cequillo, I feel Commendable pedigree was tilted a little too much towards speed, so I would have to agree with dosage assessment. Sarava won the 2002 Belmont Stakes as the longest long shot in Belmont Stakes history at 70-1. Sarava's sire Wild Again won the inaugural running of the BC Classic beating Slew O' Gold and Gate Dancer after a three way battle between these for the length of the stretch. However, Wild Again, like most of his foals, seem to enjoy going 1 1/8 miles much more than the classic distance, with the exception of Milwaukee Brew. Sarava's broodmare sire, Deputy Minister, was Canada's 2 YO champion mostly because of his sprinting abilities and he continued to prove he was better at sprinting through his career. Deputy Minister did sire a couple of fillies who were U.S. champions and loved to run but for the most part, his foals loved mid distances the best. Sarava dam family is full of sprint type mares. So I will have to agree with this assessment based on dosage. Giacomo pulled off a huge upset in the 2005 Ky Derby. Giacomo's sire, Holy Bull, won 13 of 16 lifetime starts but only one at 1 1/4 miles and that being the Travers Stakes. He was the beaten favorite in the Ky Derby when he stumbled at the start. He never lost when he broke first but also never hit the board when he didn't. Holy Bull had two separate influences of major distance sire of Mahmoud, the first his son The Axe II and second Grey Dawn II, a son of his daughter Polomia. Giacomo's broodmare sire, Stop The Music, is one of many from the Hail To Reason sire line but was unfortunate to be born the same year as Secretariat. Stop The Music was award the win in the Champagne Stakes after Secretariat tried to savage him as he was going by, one of only 2 losses for Secretariat as a 2 YO. Stop The Music's best son, Temperence Hill upset Genuine Risk in the Belmont Stakes at odds of 53.40-1. Since he crosses with Prince Bio, a close relative of Princequillo, on the dam side, I would think he would be under on dosage. But he is also one the pedigree experts can not be faulted for missing. Prince Bio was to Europe what Princequillo was to the U.S. A Distance Loving Sire. Mine That Bird pulled off a major upset at 50-1 in the 2009 Ky Derby on a sloppy track. Mine That Bird's sire Birdstone, won the 2004 Belmont Stakes, foiling Smarty Jones attempt at a TC at odds of 36-1. Birdstone's sire Grindstone also won the Ky Derby in 1996, as did his sire Unbridled in 1990. Mine That Bird's broodmare sire is Smart Strike, the sire of both Curlin and Lookin At Lucky. While Smart Strike was a solid runner, he was even a much better sire and his line is starting to really spread out. My take on his pedigree is this is another dosage had no business missing, based on the sire records of both the sire line and broodmare sire line. Dosage is supposed to be about pedigree but when you omit two top lines, it will not be successful for too long. It was already flawed by not considering dams. American Pharoah won the TC in 2014 as the favorite. His sire, Pioneerof The Nile ran 2nd in the 2009 Ky Derby and his sire Empire Maker ran 2nd in the 2004 Ky Derby before foiling Funny Cide's TC bid in the Belmont. American Pharoah's broodmare sire Yankee Gentleman was a minor state bred winning son of Storm Cat. However, his dam, Key Phase showed a little ability winning 5 of 6 starts, including the G1 Santa Monica at 7 furlongs. But other than that, his female family is one of the few families I have seen with no major stakes winner through five generations. So I would have to agree with dosage on this one, but actually believe his DI should be even higher. He was be beneficiary of what turned out to be a weak crop. Nyquist won the Ky Derby in 2015 as the favorite. His sire, Uncle Mo, was a miler during his racing career but won the BC Juvenile Dirt at a 1 1/16, mostly because of his high class but also most were still developing and had yet to catch up. He was leading first crop sire, but most top out at around 1 1/16 mile, except this one. Nyquist broodmare sire, Forestry, was a son of Storm Cat whose biggest win came in the 7 furlongs G1 King's Bishop. Forestry's dam, Shared Interest won the G1 Ruffian at 5 and ran second in two more G1's. Her third dam, Sequence, is also the second dam of Mr Prospector. Most of Nyquist's dam family won a stake, but most were what look like sprints. His pedigree, top and bottom, is much better than American Pharoah, but still tilted a little too much towards speed. Nyquist breaking the dosage makes a lot more sense than the horse above does. Always Dreaming won the 2017 Ky Derby on a sloppy track. Always Dreaming sire, Bodemeister ran second in the 2012 Ky Derby And Preakness. However, I really believe he would have been a much better horse if allowed to rate. He is bred too good to tinker with his best running style. Always Dreaming's broodmare sire In Excess is also grand sire of Uncle Mo. So I expect Always Dreaming's best distance will be around a mile, much like Uncle Mo. Always Dreaming's dam, Above Perfection, was a G3 winning sprinter that ran second in the G1 Prioress Stakes. So I agree with the assessment of dosage on this one. I believe he was more a beneficiary of a sloppy track more than talent and I believe his three races since points that out.
The sign up thread will be posted Tuesday. The Tips thread will be posted Wednesday. Please have your tips posted by lunch-time of the race..
Please format your previews something similar to this.
When you post your selection, please confirm if you're advising to Win, Place, E/W, Forecast, whatever, how many points to stake (this is generally done in 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 and 3 points, but it's up to your discretion), and what odds to take and with which betting firm or if you're taking the SP.
2003 Breeders Cup Races With Winners, 2nd Place Finishers and Beaten Favorites, Along With Trainer, Jockeys And Owners. Familiar Names In Almost Every Race!
2003 BC Classic: Pleasantly Perfect(1998) Pleasant Colony- Regal State By Affirmed. Outcross in first five generations. Almost 4 month break. 3rd G2 San Antonio H at 1 1/8 mile, 4th G1 Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/4 mile. another 7 month break to wait for BC, won G2 Goodwood BCH at 1 1/8 mile, won G1 BC Classic in second start back from most recent break and 4th start of the year at odds of 14-1. Pleasantly Perfect simply ran to his pedigree and he was by far the best bred horse for the distance as his sire won both the KY Derby & Preakness and finished third in the Belmont S in 1981 and his broodmare sire Affirmed won the 1978 Triple Crown. He also got the perfect setup with 2 dueling front runners in Medaglia D 'Oro and Congaree battling most of the way. Jockey was Alex Solis, trainer was Richard Mandella, owner was Diamond A Racing Corp. This was Mandella 4 winner of a BC race on this day. Medaglia D'Oro(1999) El Prado- Cappucino Bay By Bailjumper. Outcross in first 5 generations. 3 month break. won G2 Strub S at 1 1/8 mile, won G2 Oaklawn H at 1 1/8 mile, won G1 Whitney H at 1 1/8 mile, 2nd G1 Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 mile, 2nd G1 BC Classic at 1 1/4 mile in his fifth start of the year as favorite at odds of 5-2. Medaglia D'Oro only other loss that year came against Candy Ride track record performance in the Pacific Classic. The only two races he failed to hit the board in his career was the G1 Ky Derby & G1 Preakness in back to back races and that was more due to lack of experience when compared to other horses of his year than anything else. Jockey was Jerry Bailey, trainer was Bobby Frankel, owner was Juddmonte Farms. 2003 BC Juvenile Dirt: Action This Day(2001) Kris S- Najecam By Trempolino. Outcross in first 5 generations. ran 2nd in maiden race at 1 mile, won maiden race at 1 1/16 mile, won G1 BC Juvenile in his 3rd lifetime start at odds of 26-1. The BC Juvenile demostrated once again what happens when need the lead type clashes in the same race. There were six horses entered in here that had never won unless they got an easy lead and sat a moderate pace. After a 109 4/5 pace for six furlongs which was much fast than even I could have predicted, Action This Day came from last and won going away. Minister Eric was just in front of him and getting some play but his pedigree was suspected at that distance which cost him the chance at a win, though he was 5 lengths clear of the third place horse. Jockey was David Flores, trainer was Richard Mandella, owner was B Wayne Hughes. Minister Eric(2001) Old Trieste- Musical Minister By Deputy Minister. Outcross in first 5 generations. ran 4th in maiden race at 5 1/2 furlongs to Lucky Pulpit, ran 3rd in maiden race at 5 1/2 furlongs to Siphonizer, won maiden race at 6 furlongs, 2nd G2 Del Mar Futurity at 7 furlongs to Siphonizer, ran 2nd in G1 BC Juvenile in fifth start at 8.70-1 odds. He had laid close to the pace in all his previous races, so I thought he was up against it in here but I had overlook one important factor and that was his trainer was on a winning streak rarely seen. Jockey was Alex Solis, trainer was Richard Mandella, owner was Diamond A Racing. Cuvee(2001) Carson City- Christmas Star By Star De Naskra. 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) To Nasrullah. won maiden race at 4 1/2 furlongs in 51 1/5 by 6 lengths, won G3 Ky Cup Juvenile S at 5 1/2 furlongs by 8 lengths, 3rd G3 Bashford Manor at 6 furlongs, won G2 Saratoga Special at 6 1/2 furlongs by 7 1/2 lengths, won G1 Futurity S at 1 mile by 8 1/2 lengths, then ran 12th and last in the G1 BC Juvenile as the 8-5 favorite. I had thrown him out of all my bets because his sire Carson City was a speedy son of Mr Prospector and he had yet to show he could rate behind horses and then go by when asked. However he did look the fastest of all but I knew he would have company early and I was willing to take the chance he would fade when pressured late. He was 4th and battling for the lead for six furlongs before he had enough and started a steady fade. Jockey was Jerry Bailey, trainer was Steven Asmussen, owner was Winchell Thoroughbreds & Spendthrift Farms. 2003 BC Distaff: Adoration(1999) Honor Grades- Sewing Lady By Key To The Mint. 5x4 to Princequillo. 4th in G2 El Encino S at 1 1/16 mile on January of 4 YO season then given a 7 month break, won Piedra Fountain H at one mile, 3rd G2 Lady's Secret H at 1 1/16 mile, won G1 BC Distaff at 1 1/8 mile in her 3rd start since an extended break and fourth race of the year at 40-1. While I loved her pedigree, this is one I totally overlooked as her form made her looked overmatched. Her sire, Honor Grades is a 1/2 to A.P. Indy & Summer Squall and her broodmare sire Key To The Mint won all the major races in New York for 3 YOs of 1972, including the Travers and his 5 race winning streak was snapped in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when a fast closing second in his first attempt against older horses. But the Lady's Secret was better than it looked on paper, especially since it was her second start back from a layoff. She set the pace in moderate fractions and looked like she was running a big race when eventual 2nd place finisher Elloluv veered in into her path, causing her to steady. She ended up running fourth beaten 3 lengths but was placed 3rd through DQ. Finishing just ahead of her was Azeri, who was losing for the 2nd time in 17 lifetime starts and her connections decided to pass the BC Distaff, which she had won in 2002. Adoration jumped out front and set the same fractions in the Distaff, but did not tire this time and drew off to win by 4 1/2 lengths. Jockey was Patrick Valenzeula, trainer was David Hofmans, owner was Amerman Racing. Elloluv(2000) Gilded Time- Currency Quest By Cryptoclearance. 4x5 To Bold Ruler, 5x5 to Nasrullah. No break. won G2 Santa Ynez S at 7 furlongs, 2nd G1 Las Virgenes S at 1 mile, 2nd G1 Santa Anita Oaks at 1 1/16 mile, won G1 Ashland S at 1 1/16 mile, 4th G1 Ky Oaks at 1 1/8 mile, then got a 4 1/2 month break, 4th G2 Lady's Secret H(DQ from 2nd for impeding rival)at 1 1/16 mile, 2nd G1 BC Distaff at 1 1/8 mile at odds of 8.80-1. The BC Distaff was the probable outcome of the Lady's Secret H had Elloluv kept a straight course as Azeri had already given her all and Got Koko(the 3rd place finisher in the distaff) did not get by until after the trouble had occurred. Jockey was Corey Nakatani, trainer was Craig Dollase, owner was J Paul Reddam. Sightseek(1999) Distant View- Viviana By Nureyev. 4x5 To Native Dancer, 5(C)x3(F)x4(F) To Northern Dancer. Less than 2 month break. 2nd G1 Santa Monica at 7 furlongs, 2nd G2 La Canada S at 1 1/8 mile, 2nd G1 Santa Margarita H at 1 1/8 mile, won G1 Humana Distaff H at 7 furlongs, won G1 Ogden Phipps H at 1 1/16 mile, Won G1 Go For Wand H at 1 1/16 mile by 11 1/2 lengths, won G1 Beldame H by 4 1/2 lengths, ran 4th in her 8th start of the year in an even effort at odds of 3-5. What happen? You could say she was starting to tail off after 7 hard races in a row but a bigger reason was she ran on a track that had a strong speed bias which went against her style of running late. No horse passed another in this race with the exception of two front runners that faded more than someone ran by them. Jockey was Jerry Bailey, trainer was Bobby Frankel, owner was Juddmonte Farms. 2003 BC Turf: (Only Dead-Heat for win in BC History) Johar(1999) Gone West- Windsharp By Lear Fan. 4x5 To Native Dancer, Nashua, Something Royal & Mixed Marriage. won G2 San Marcos H at 1 1/4 mile on turf for third major win in a row in January, then got 7 month break, ran 3rd of 3 horses in Harry Brubaker H at 1 1/16M on turf, 2nd G1 Clement L Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship S at 1 1/4 mile, DH for win in G1 BC Turf at 1/2 mile on turf at odds of 14-1 in his third start back from layoff and fourth of the year. His pedigree suggested he would get stronger the further they went mostly because his dam was a multiple G1 stakes winner on turf at 1 1/2 miles and further, beating colts several times. Jockey was Alex Solis, trainer was Richard Mandella, owner was The Thoroughbred Corp. High Chapparral(1999) Sadler's Wells- Kasora By Darshaan. Outcross in first 5 generations. 9 1/2 month break. His only agenda for 2003 was defending his title in this race and he was pointed to it by getting a longer break than most. won G2 Royal Whip S(Ire), won G1 Champion S(Ire), 3rd G1 Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe(Fr), DH for win in the G1 BC Turf at odds of 4.80-1 in his fourth start of year. Jockey was Michael Kinane, trainer was Aidan O'Brien, owner was Coolmore Stables(Tabor & Magnier). Storming Home(1998) Machiavellian- Try To Catch Me By Shareef Dancer. 2x3 To Mr Prospector, 4x4 To Natalma, 4(C)x5(C)x5(F)x5(F) To Native Dancer, 5x5 To Nasrullah, 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) To Almahmoud, 5 1/2 month break. won Jim Murray Memorial H at 1 1/2 mile on turf, won G1 Charles Whittingham Memorial H. at 1 1/4 mile on turf, 4th(DQ from 1st) G1 Arlington Million at 1 1/4 mile on turf, won G1 Clement L Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship H at 1 1/4 mile on turf, 7th in the BC Turf in his fifth race on year at odds of 2-1. What Happen? My guess is his jockey empty the tank to win a $250000 race when he had to make up 2 lengths in the last eighth to win while the horse he ran down was using that race as a paid workout and was not asked for his best by his jockey. But regardless, the horse came up empty and faded at the point he had started to move in his previous races. Jockey was Gary Stevens, trainer was Neil Drysdale, owner was Shiek Maktoum Bin Rashid Al Maktoum. 2003 BC F&M Turf: Islington(1999)Sadler's Wells- Hellenic By Darshaan. Outcross in first 5 generations. 7 1/2 month break. 3rd G1 Prince Of Wales's S(Eng), 6th G1 Eclipse S(Eng), won G1 Yorkshire Oaks(Eng), 3rd G1 Irish Champion S(Ire), won BC F&M Turf in her fifth start of year as favorite at 2.90-1. She returned in 2003 after running a fast closing 3rd in this same race in 2002. Jockey was Kieren Fallon, trainer was Sir Michael Stoute, owners was Executors of the late Lord Weinstock. L'Ancresse(2000) Darshaan- Solo De Lune By Law Society. Outcross in first 5 generations. Don't know exactly how many races she ran as a 3 Yo and in what order but--- 15th G1 Eng 1000 Guineas at 1 mile, 2nd Irish 1000 Guineas Trial(Ire) at one mile, 4th G1 Irish 1000 Guineas(Ire) at one mile, 15th G1 Epsom Oaks at 1 1/2 miles, won Barathea Finale(Ire) at 1 1/2 mile, 2nd G1 Irish Oaks(Ire), 5th G1 Yorkshire Oaks at 1 1/2 mile, 2nd BC F&H Turf at 1 1/4 mile at odds of 46-1. Jockey was Edgar Prado, trainer was Aidan O'Brien, owner was Coolmore Stables(Tabor & Magnier). Yesterday(2000)Sadler's Wells- Jude By Darshaan. Outcross in first 5 generations. 8th G1 1000 Guineas(Eng) at 1 mile, won G1 Irish 1000 Guineas(Ire)at 1 mile, 2nd G1 Epsom Oaks(Eng) at 1 1/2 mile, 4th G1 Irish Oaks(Ire), 2nd G1 Prix Vermeille(Fr) at 1 1/2 miles, 2nd G1 Prix De L'Opera(Fr) at 1 1/4 mile, 3rd G1 BC F&M Turf in her 7th race of the year at odds of 14-1, Jockey was Michael Kinane, trainer was Aidan O'Brien, owner was Coolmore Stables(Tabor & Magnier). 2003 BC Juvenile Fillies: Halfbridled(2001) Unbridled- Half Queen By Deputy Minister. 3x4 To Mr Prospector, 5x5 To Buckpasser. won maiden race at 5 1/2 furlongs, won G1 Del Mar Debutante S at 7 furlongs, won G2 Oak Leaf S at 1 mile, won BC Juvenile fillies in 4th start as the 2.30-1 favorite Jockey was Julie Krone, trainer was Richard Mandella, owner was Wertheimer and Frere. Ashado(2001) Saint Ballado- Goulash By Mari's Book. 3x5 To Cosmah, 4x5 To Almahmoud. Won maiden race at 5 1/2 furlongs, won G2 Schuylerville S at 6 furlongs, won G1 Spinaway S at 7 furlongs, 3rd G1 Frizette S at 1 1/16 mile, 2nd BC Juvenile Fillies in fifth start at 13-1. Jockey was John Velasquez, trainer was Todd Pletcher, owner was Starlight Racing. 2004 BC Turf Mile: Six Perfections(2000) Celtic Swing- Yogya By Riverman. 5x5 To Roman. Her dam, Yogya is a 1/2 sister to Miesque, a two time winner of G1 BC Turf Mile. 6 month break. Won Prix Imprudence(Fr) at 7 furlongs, 2nd G1 1000 Guineas(Eng)at 1 mile, 2nd G1 Irish 1000 Guineas(Ire) at 1 mile, 2nd G2 Prix D'Astarte(Fr) at 1 mile, won G1 Prix Jacques Le Marois(Fr) at 1 mile, won G1 BC Turf Mile at 1 mile in her 6th race of the year at odds of 5-1. Jockey was Jerry Bailey, trainer was Pascal Bary, owner was Flaxman Holdings. Touch Of The Blues(1997) Cadeaux Genereux- Silabteni By Nureyev. 5x5 To Native Dancer. 5 1/2 month break. 3rd G2 Maker's Mark Mile S at 1 mile on turf, 3rd G1 Shoemaker BC Mile S at 1 mile on turf, won Wickerr S at 1 mile on turf, won G1 Atto Mile H(Can) at 1 mile on turf, 3rd G1 Shadwell Turf Mile S at 1 mile on turf, 2nd G1 BC Turf Mile at 1 mile on turf at 11.90-1 in his six start of year. He was back for his second try at this race as he ran 10th in 2002. Jockey was Kent Desomeaux, trainer was Neil Drysdale, owner was Sheik Maktoum Bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Peace Rules(2003) Jules- Hold To Fashion By Hold Your Peace. 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) To Native Dancer. 2 month break. won G2 La. Derby at 1 1/16 mile, won G1 Blue Grass S at 1 1/8 mile, 3rd G1 Ky Derby at 1 1/4 mile, 4th G1 Preakness S at 1 3/16 mile, won G1 Haskell Inv. at 1 1/8 mile, 2nd G1 Travers S at 1 1/4 miles, 13th and last in the G1 BC Turf Mile in his 7th race race of the year and first start on turf as the favorite at 3-1. Pedigree was saying very unlikely, especially against this kind and first attempt. Jockey was Edgar Prado, trainer was Bobby Frankel, owner was Edmund Gann. 2003 BC Sprint: Cajun Beat(2000) Grand Slam- Beckys Shirt By Cure For Blues. 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) To Bold Ruler. no break. won allowance at 6 furlongs in 109 2/5, 6th G2 Hutcheson S at 7 furlongs, 6th G3 Tampa Bay Derby at 1 1/16 mile, won Hallandale Beach S at 7 furlongs, 9th Matt Winn S at 6 furlongs, 2nd allowance at 5 furlongs on turf, 2nd G3 Carry Back S at 6 furlongs, won G3 Ky Cup Sprint at 6 furlongs in 109 3/5, won G1 BC Sprint at 6 furlongs in 108 flat in his 9th start of year and by far the fastest time he ever ran at 22.80-1. His next start, he return to his 109 range and won again at GP, indicating SA was either a full second faster or heavily bias for speed. He never won on dirt again after that. Jockey was Cornelio Velasquez, trainer was Steve Margolis, owner was Padua Stables and John & Joseph Iracane. Bluesthestandard(1997) American Standard- Bob's Blue By Bob's Dusty. 4(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Nasrullah. No break. won allowance O/C at 6 1/2 furlongs in 115 2/5, won allowance O/C at 1 1/16 mile, won G2 Potrero Grande S at 6 1/2 furlongs in 114 4/5, won G3 Texas Mile S at one mile, 3rd G3 Lone Star Park H at 1 1/16 mile, 6th G1 Triple Bend BCH at 7 furlongs, 3rd G2 Bing Crosby BCH at 6 furlongs in 108 flat, 7th G2 Pat O'Brien BCH at 7 furlongs, 3rd G2 Ancient Title BCH at 6 furlongs in 108 flat, 2nd BC Sprint at 6 furlongs in 108 flat in his 19th start of year at odds of 13.70-1. Jockey was Mike Smith, trainer was Ted West, owner was Jeff Sengara. Aldebaran(1998) Mr Prospector- Chimes Of Freedom By Private Account. Outcross in first 5 generations. 3 month break, won G1 San Carlos H at 7 furlongs, 2nd G1 Carter H at 7 furlongs, won G2 Churchill Downs H at 7 furlongs, won G1 Metropolitan H at 1 mile, 3rd G1 Stephen Foster H at 1 1/8 mile, won G2 Tom Fool H at 7 furlongs, won G1 Forego H at 7 furlongs, ran 6th in G1 BC Sprint in his 8th race of year as the favorite at odds of 2-1. He was pretty much running into a strong bias that he could not overcome but few can. Jockey was Jerry Bailey, trainer was Bobby Frankel, owner was Flaxman Holdings.
Get the latest Epsom Derby odds, betting tips and free bet offers ahead of this year’s second colts’ Classic. Our tipster is looking away from the favourites for his pick There’s a double The Derby has a maximum field size of 20 horses and it normally features 12 or more runners. That throws the race open to attractive each-way Epsom Derby betting terms and this has been a great race for big-priced placed horses. In 2010 At First Sight finished runner-up at Epsom Derby odds of 100/1. Browse our The Derby (Antepost) odds and show your Epsom 4th July betting knowledge. Who will you be backing on the The Derby (Antepost)? English King is one of the favourites at the moment, at odds of 9/4* and an expected probability to win the The Derby (Antepost) of 30.77%. A £10 bet on English King at these odds would win you £32.5. Epsom Downs horse racing betting odds and racecourse guide The Derby Festival; The Derby Festival 2020 - Epsom Betting Odds. The Epsom Derby is the most famous Flat horse race in the United Kingdom, with the leading three-year-olds in the UK and Ireland competing over the distance of one mile and four furlongs.This is one of the five Classics during the UK Flat racing calendar, with the race traditionally taking place in early June although the 2020
As official betting partner of the Epsom Racecourse Investec Derby . . . Who better to preview the greatest flat race in the world? For the latest horse racing odds head over to Unibet: http ... Get best Epsom Derby odds at 888sport.com now! _____ Get best odds price boosts ... Royal Ascot and more, as well as Premier League betting previews with top football betting odds! Get beat odds on the Epsom Derby with 888sport! _____ Get best odds price boosts ... Royal Ascot and more, as well as Premier League betting previews with top football betting odds! My preview to this weekends racing at Epsom and Sandown. #HorseRacing #Racing #Espom #Derby #Oaks #Sandown #Eclipse #Betting #Gambling #Love #Enable #Tips. This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue