I made my first website, where you can simulate betting on NBA games
I made my first website, where you can simulate betting on NBA games
What website do you guys use to check stats of the games you are betting on?
I'll try to make this as straight forward as possible but basically what I'm looking for is a site I'm able to go to that has tonight match ups and their stats (last games against each other, etc). I mostly bet on NBA, NHL & CBB. Any help is appreciated!
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As some of you have probably noticed, I've been posting game predictions in the GDTs for most of Edmonton's games this year. There has been a decent amount of feedback and mostly positivity surrounding it even when the predictions have been less than flattering, so kudos to you guys! Anyway since there has also been quite a few questions regarding some of the metrics and my methods I thought I'd write a bit on it (sort of a FAQ) so I can simply refer to this post later on. Apologize for the wall-of-text, feel free to skim to what interests you. DISCLAIMER: I am not a statistician or a mathematician, I work in a BI role. Everything below is just trial and error and there are definitely far better ways to do this stuff. I am always open to suggestions and improvements.
Why do you post this stuff?
I've not had a lot of success in sports betting before so I thought I'd make an attempt to see if I could beat the system using statistics. I've been meaning to make this for a few years but finally got round to coding some. I then found many of the factors involved very intriguing and the head-to-head comparisons make watching the games more analytical so I thought I'd start posting them for others as well (I first did the tables by hand, but now its code-generated).
What tools do you use?
I have a very simple setup at home using SAS University Edition1 running on an Oracle VM. I work with SAS so I chose it because of familiarity, not because it's necessarily best suited for the job (I do find it very versatile though). I run the code manually whenever I want to analyze games/place bets. Since this is running on a VM there is no batch-processing involved (a SAS-license for a server doesn't really make sense for personal use).
Where do you get your data?
I have some code that polls the NHL API2 and a betting website API. Additionally I scrape data from corsicahockey3, puckonnet4 and naturalstattrick5 .
What do you do with the data exactly?
The basic data-flow is structured as follows:
Get team stats (NHL API)
Get league aggregated stats (NHL API)
Get current standings/rankings (NHL API)
Get advanced stats a) Expected goals-% (and xGF/xGA/60) (corsicahockey) b) Corsi & Fenwick EVSA (puckonnet) c) Aggregated GSAA, xSV% (naturalstattrick)
Update list of games with final results (NHL API)
Get list of today's games (NHL API)
Get game winner odds for today's games (Betting website, open API)
Clean up and format datasets for analysis
Calculate custom metrics for teams a) Team form b) Team fatigue
Analyze today's match-ups
Print reports (& reddit text table for EDM games)
Store predictions in datamart tables and a) Analyze prediction accuracy b) Analyze metric correlation
There is some other stuff going on in conditional data-flows but that is mainly for ad-hoc analysis.
What is "Form Score"?
Okay, so this one is meant give a better idea of a team's recent performance than simply looking at wins/losses or points/pt-%. I calculate the initial score based on the game result as follows:
Reg. 1-goal game
Each game's score is then adjusted by the opponent's Point-%, and by league home advantage (~0.96) or away disadvantage (~1.04) The game scores are summed together and the result is divided by 6 to find the mean. Finally, the mean score is adjusted using the team's current PDO (aka SPSV%). So a hypothetical maximum form score at the time of writing would be if the Hurricanes (worst PDO or "luck" in the league with 0.963) played 6 away games (1.04 modifier) against the Tampa Bay Lighting (best Pt-% in the league with 79.5), and they won all of them by more than 1 goal (2 PTS per game).
(2*79.5*1.04)*6 = 165.36 / 6 / 0.963 = ~172
Current actual maximum (04.12.2019): 83.06 (BOS) Current actual minimum (04.12.2019): 0.00 (DET)
What is "Fatigue"
I calculate fatigue based on a few metrics:
Jetlag = Time-zones crossed in the last 6 games (lower is better)
Schedule = Days between the 6th game and today (higher is better)
Travel miles = Number of miles traveled divided by schedule days (lower is better)
The actual formula also includes a constant (to off-set negative values) and some weights:
(50 + Jetlag - Schedule*2) * sqrt(Travel miles)
This results in a fatigue score that typically ranges from 100-1000 (higher is worse). For simplicity, the team's are categorized by whichever 33-percentile they end up on (LO-MED-HI), but in the head-to-head analysis the actual fatigue score is taken into account. In addition, back-to-back win/loss percentage is added to the initial fatigue value when comparing teams head-to-head.
How do you come up with "Expected Score"?
Expected score is based on a few metrics:
xGF/60 = Expected goals for per game
xGA/60 = Expected goals against per game
GF/60 = Goals for per game
GA/60 = Goals against per game
From this we can average out a realistic expectation of goals per game, lets call them rGF/60 and rGA/60, for both teams. Averaging out the opposing measures...
...and extrapolating based on estimated certainty of win/loss...
...we get the approximate number of goals for both sides. From here, we could use floor and ceil functions to get more variance between the numbers, but a simple rounding with zero-fussing will give a more realistic score line. Typically 3-2 or 2-3 (although atm thanks to higher scoring, the most common scores are 4-3/3-4 and 2-1/1-2 both with 11,8%).
How do you analyze the match-ups
In order to determine which team has a better chance to win you have to consider both internal and external factors that relate to win percentage. External factors are mostly event specific, eg. home/away advantage, recent travel etc. Internal factors are by far easier to analyze as they are composed out of qualities that we can evaluate using past games as reference ie. power play efficiency, goaltending, possession, shooting percentage and so forth. In my model I utilize the following metrics in addition to considering home/away advantage (using league average win-ratios):
Comparing these metrics in a match-up results in one team having an advantage over the other. However, not all of these metrics have an equally large effect on win probability, so they need to be weighted. I determine the weights by calculating correlation coefficients for the metrics. Put simply: the stronger the apparent correlation between a metric and actual GF%, the larger the weight.
What do you use it for?
There's a whole lot of data and dozens of data tables involved but primarily this whole shebang simply prints out some reports for me. First one includes all the games for the day with the expected game winner highlighted along with estimated certainty and additional stats regarding recent form. [https://imgur.com/1rFSOdc] The second one displays betting odds for the games along with visualized form scores. Colors are determined by individual games' form score. [https://imgur.com/FnOjoQ2]
Select games are highlighted depending on the odds and estimated accuracy for predicted result. The third report is a table of suggested doubles for betting: [https://imgur.com/T2GXk4f] And of course, I use it to post statistics to EDM GDTs. It gives me a text table to copy and paste.[https://imgur.com/HzaPj9q]
Does it work?
Last season I had an overall accuracy of about 61% and made a roughly 4-5% return for investment, while betting mostly on doubles/triples & singles with large handicaps.
Can I get access to all the results?
Maybe at some point in time. I'm working on sharing these on a free-to-view website.
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Do you know any betting websites that gives bonus based on the number of games in your betting slip ?
hello guys , i used to bet on planetwin365 it gives bonus based on the number of games you have in your betslip , but i moved to another country and that website doesn't work here , so you know another bookie like that?
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What websites have all of you found best? I’m wanting to do spread based bets on games and over/under with win totals on the NBA, NFL and college football. I’m in the USA too. I found PointsBet but idk if I trust it.
A large betting website where I'm from offered a 100 million GBP rewarded to whomever manage to predict all 64 games correctly. Before Germany - Mexico, 84 people had managed to predict all correct result so far - after the game, 0 people had.
Personally I'm at 6 out of 11 right ones after having predicted the Brazil Switzerland tie but failed to predict the Argentina Iceland tie.
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Mobile app or website that only shows games you are betting on
Been kicking around this idea in my head and wondering if anything like this exists. Let's say this is a Saturday. I make 10 bets on college football. I'd like a website (preferrably a mobile app) where you can input your bets. Then there is a scoreboard features (similar to ESPN or yahoo or whatever your choice is) that show ONLY the games that you bet on along with what your bet is. I find myself betting on college and refreshing scoreboards and having to search for the handful of games out of 50+ that I bet on. Thought it would also be pretty cool for multi sports too so you could have NFL, NCAA, MLB, etc all on one scoreboard if you bet on it. Thoughts? EDIT: Thanks for all the responses! I'll check them all out and see if it fits the bill!
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What's the betting website that predicts each team's chances of winning as the game progresses (based on size of lead and time remaining)?
People tend to post it when teams have crazy comebacks. As a team increases its lead in the 4th quarter, for instance, you could watch their win probability rise from 55% to 99%. Hopefully that makes sense. I remember thinking it's a really great tool and I'd love to look at it for this Spurs lead.
I made a UFC betting game website to share with /r/MMA in preparation for UFC 207!
www.strawbets.com The web app is a mix of fantasy (UFC pick' em) + vegas odds + strawpoll. Its easy to share with friends with no signups. I play this game with my friends where we fake bet on every fighter using Vegas odds to see who would make the most money. I decided to make a web app for my final project so I could just send a link to my friends and do the same thing. I hope someone else out there may find this useful! Since this is my final project for a comp sci course, please let me know if there's any additional features, errors, or bugs that may occur (I did some minor testing for FN: PVZ vs Waterson). I do plan on keeping this running for future events.
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