﻿ Pre Flop Odds - Decoding the Myth - Online Poker

# Pre Flop Odds - Decoding the Myth - Online Poker

• Pre Flop Odds - Decoding the Myth - Online Poker
• Poker Odds Calculator | Odds of Winning w/ Any Poker Hand
• Poker Calculator – Texas Holdem Poker Odds Calculator
• Texas Hold'em Poker Odds Calculator - Card Player
• Preflop Poker Strategy | Playing Before The Flop
##### Should I study poker? What should I focus on?

Hey guys, thanks in advance for any help.
Here's the thing: I'm 24 and in college. I don't invest anything in poker, I only play freerolls. The site I play on offers two freerolls per day that pay 5€ tickets. I use those tickets to play and withdraw the money to invest in my other projects or something I want, I keep the money on the site until I have enough to buy whatever my goal was (a new watch, a new jacket, whatever) and then keep 15€ behind because that's the minimum required to withdraw so I can keep adding small wins. Apart from that I play small tournaments (buy-in from 1 to 50 cents) that get me and extra ~5-10€ every day . I'm not (at least right now) thinking about getting serious with poker, cash games, moving up the stakes, whatever.
And that's my question. To what level of skill do I have to progress to beat those 5€ buy-in tournaments (I'm not talking about the 1-50 cents because those are super turbos and the reason I'm beating them is mostly due to being conservative and aggressive and there's not much more to it)? These tournaments have a player pool of ~400-500 for the \$7.500 daily tournament, and ~200-300 for the smaller \$2.500.
That's all I want from this game right now is the ability to consistently get at least ITM in those small stakes tournaments. The thing is, and this is one of my best traits but at the same time also a curse, whenever I try to learn something, I get obsessed with it because I think everything matters. So right now I'm thinking "I need to learn how to beat MTTs consistently". So I went on google searching for videos, went on big poker channels, went on online poker schools, etc.
Right now I've totaled over 20+ hours on bluff theory, odds, reading ranges, when to check/raise, small ball, responding to 3-bets, position, tournament stages, dealing with limpers, etc. I have this all summarized in a Word document. Each of the videos that deal with this takes ~1-2 hours. And I have 450 bookmarks (no exaggeration, I actually spent 2 hours just putting them together) of youtube videos on more theory, from Negreanu, Jonathan Little, and the Poker Stars School (when to overbet, when to dunk bet, dealing with [each opponent type], ICM, range advantage and bullying, and then a ton of videos on hand reviews).
And this is not taking away from my school work, I'm still doing pretty well on school. It is, however, taking away from other interests I'd rather take priority over poker at least for now. I've spent over 3-4 hours the past few days just viewing and taking notes on these videos. And I can't help but feel this is mostly a waste of time, because I'm only playing at most 4-5 tournaments per day and I have no ambition of getting serious at the game any time soon. I only want to reach a certain profit before withdrawing to buy some things. And I'm also not investing any money, at most what can happen if I play badly is I lose all my tickets and am unable to win the satellite.
Am I right or should I try to make time to learn these things? Is there anything I should focus on? I already have a pretty steady grip on the "basics" (calculating all types of odds, being aggressive, pre-flop range, board texture, having at least some idea of how to range opponents), but I'm lacking on post flop play (ie. What to do with medium to decent hands in a certain board texture assuming I have no reads because I'm not paying that much attention to the game). I do however have a Word document I've constructed for a while on common lines people at these stakes seem to take and what they mean.
Should I look at anything more?

##### Sick cooler and at my home cash game (\$2/\$5 NLH Poker)

So I was deepstacked running hot at my No Limit Hold Them Cash Game at my House this past Friday.

The high jack Victor was on my left and he was playing with his moustache which I knew was a tell from James Bond: the movie.
"Cards are sick" I said as I shook my head. "Poker is a sick game with sick cards. Brutal cards are sick, too" I said, to cut the tension in the air. Plus we always talked poker talk.
"Yeah," one of my friends retorted, "Bellybuster flops are implied at sick odds and nits are not sick."
"Yeah I know it's so gross" I said. I lifted up my hood and pushed up my shades as I got my hole pocket cards. I had the button. The dealer button.
I look down at two queens, rainbow suit. Pocket pair, I thought to myself, and then I calculated my pre-flop merged equity and Post hand merged tangible odds post stack bluff variance.
My friend Victor shoves in a min raise from the first UTG first to act position.
"I got this pot boys" he said and he winked at himself in the mirror that was on the wall.
Fuck, I thought, Villain could have two overs or even worse two overs that are same card such as Ace over Ace or runner runner King King which could bust me! Because both are higher!
Action pre-folds around to me in Southern Position post-UTG blind. I have to cover my ass.
"Well I don't have a pair so I'm upset" I said. This seems obvious to some but it's a bluff double-bluff that I learned from Super System.
"You can fold now and save your equity for the next hand" he said
"Nice donkey bluff-try, Victor, But I'm going to check your bet and min raise all in C-bet" and I shoved all my chips in.
"You have splashed the pot so I know your weak so I flat call." he said, "I mean you're not your" he corrected himself.
Then he turns over Ace Ace rainbow so I'm a dog to his hand because they are both higher than a queen plus he has two of them which is half of the aces in the deck!!!!! (Dog means I'm not a favorite to win)
At this point I start to cuss and then I remembered the Masterclass about flop equity merging to bottom ranges so I kept it cool.
I looked at the dealer and now I was the one who winked: "Bring it on" I said.
The board flops Ace Six Deuce(2). Victor starts to laugh. This gives Victor what is known as three-to-a-set.
Then the dealer put one card down to burn it then flips up a QUEEN on the turn.

"This is about to be sick I run very gross and sick and I'm very sick" I said.

"We shall see" Victor exclaimed. He wanted two more pocket blanks to come runner runner blank.
"Oh dealer, I'd like to make a case" I said, then paused for a little bit. Everyone looked at me in anticipation. "I"d like to make a case QUEEN"
The room exploded in cheers. Everyone was like 'holy crap that was a good line' and high-fived me.
I then explained that that was a total cooler sweat.

The fifth and final card is the river and the dealer mucks one card then turns over the river which was the CASE QUEEN.
Victor threw his chair across the room shattering my son's trophy case and ruining some pieces of artwork he had done but I didn't give a fucking shit my quads had netted me his whole stack and rack.
"Yeahhhhhhh QUAD SQUAD QUAD SQUAD" I was yelling right in the ear of Victor's wife Monica as she cried. "FOR THE LOVE OF QUADS" I also yelled. I mushed her face and she fell to the ground.
I raked his hole cards, and then I told him he had to muck his chips to me.
"Looks like you don't have any post-muck equity you broke fuck" I said to needle Victor. "Your chips have accumulated in my muck" I said.
It was a sick cooler of a hand. It was loosey-Goosey the whole way around but in the end ABC poker allowed me to stack and rack my former friend. I think the odds of that hand happening were like 20 to 1. He drove home drunk and I called in his tags and I'm 95% sure he got a DUI, which was also a bad beat for him.

My son Todd's trophy/art case thing has been a huge point of contention for me and my wife. I will post an update about that later. I'm back on the couch until further notice.
EDITS:
1. To all of you who thinking AI wrote this you can muck my nuts.
2. Big ups to all the sharks out there that shared strategyEV on this hand you guys are clearly GTO. I appreciate the awards but it's basically a micro-stake pot in comparison to how much ice was on this cold deck/situation.
3. Sequel to come.

##### Cooler, Lost the Min, Standard, or Misplayed

This happened last Friday night so the details might be a little fuzzy but I haven't been able to get this one out of my head. Results are under the spoiler for those that like to respond prior to knowing.
\$1/3 at a Houston card room. Main Vil (UTG) and I are over \$1000 effective. I have no history with him other than the last 4 hours. He seems competent, likely a winning player in this room. Aggressive but not reckless. Will 3 bet pre and have seen him squeeze from the Blinds twice. Likes to apply pressure. Table as a whole is pretty deep. Hero is BTN.
UTG limps, MP limps, HJ makes it \$13 (that might as well be a limp), CO calls, Hero with T9dd decides to call. -- If I thought there was any chance I could ISO here I would have. Making it \$75 might have worked but the UTG limp had me wondering if he would shove (or raise big) as a squeeze and I couldn't call it off with T9dd. Plus the MP player only had like \$140 behind and I didn't want him to reopen the action with a "fuck it, all in." -- SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls. 6 ways to the flop.
The flop is 6d 7d 7c. -- This feels like a great flop. But since the board is paired, drawing to a flush doesn't seem great. The straight draw is of little value. The problem is with 6 players seeing this flop, there a solid chance someone has a 7 and I won't be able to semi bluff my way to this pot. -- BB checks, UTG very casually bets \$25. MP calls and it folds to Hero. -- Again, a raise here won't fold out a 7... and do I really want to play a huge pot even if I do hit my flush on a paired board? What if UTG bet small to induce a raise so he could shove? There's a significant amount of dead money now. Folding \$25 to chase \$128 is just too nitty. -- I decide to call.
The turn is the Ad. -- Bingo. One of the best cards in the deck for me. -- UTG now checks. MP, who has less than a pot sized bet and is no longer much of a concern, checks. -- What should Hero do here? The check by UTG is actually tough. Either he paired the Ace and now wants to get to showdown cheaply, he made the flush and wants to check/raise, he's already on a Boat and wants to give a flush a chance to put money in twice, or he was just taking a stab on the flop and is now surrendering. -- Hero decides to get to showdown cheaply and checks behind.
The river is the 8s. UTG is in the tank for a good 45s (this is Houston, we play on time-rake, nobody tanks unless they're facing a significant decision/pot). He's being pretty calculating and bets \$130. MP quickly folds. -- Suddenly, the "check on the turn + value the river" looks just atrociously strong. At first, I'm not sure I can beat any value. He only has a handful of better flushes QJdd, KJdd, KQdd. 88, 77, 66 are all in his range but this is an odd line for each. 87s makes a ton of sense but the only combo left is hearts. A7hh and A7ss seem like long shots UTG and I'm not sure they lead the flop, even small. On the other hand, there is a smaller flush, 54dd that may have taken this line. And a number of weak 7s. I don't think AX tries to bet this river into two people. --
Hero decides to "just call" and is shown his fate. UTG flips 88. So, on one hand, I controlled the pot and lost less than \$200 on a flush vs full house fiasco that could have cost me \$1000. But on the other hand, a raise on the flop OR a bet on the Turn likely wins me the pot. That might be results oriented though because he was just as likely to have 66 as 88 and already have the boat. And on a third hand (why not?) why am I drawing to a flush on a paired board? That's like Poker 101. Can I really find a fold on the flop? So what do you think poker... ???

##### Taking a shot

I took a shot at \$5/\$10 game this week and am looking for advice on a specific spot.
I am 52 yo business guy but look younger, and have been playing my whole life, I travel as a management consultant a lot, and with a young family in Brooklyn, it’s often the best time for me to play.
To be honest, I don’t really care about the money. I see poker as a challenge in creativity, risk management, analytic skill and human behavior. The money is just the scorecard and the stories are the real reward. Trust me, I have worked my ass off my whole life, and I am grateful for the luxury of this perspective on poker.
I usually play 2/5 wherever I go. My game is usually very LAG, and I love to see flops as I have a high degree of confidence in my post-flop play. I don’t play tournaments a lot, primarily because most of them are just shove fests and it doesn’t yield a lot of insight for me. I can afford bigger buy-in tournaments but i rarely have 2-3 days to play.
I have only taken a shot at 5/10 twice before. Once I got stacked, once I doubled my buy-in. From my extensive study but limited experience, 5/10 games run more true to form. The quality of the play is better and player reads stay more consistent. In this way, strong and weak tendencies are much easier to identify, and it’s much more about looking for spots. It does require added skills, particularly 3 betting and river bluffing.
(Sorry for the long intro, but maybe this is good insight into a business guy’s mindset, since all the pros salivate when they see me and my collared shirt sit down).
This week, I played at the Horseshoe in Hammond Indiana. It’s the only real place to play in Chicago. The games can get big on certain nights. There were 50/100 LHE, 10/20 NLHE, 5/10 PLO and two 5/10 NLHE games running. You rarely see that even at the Bellagio in Vegas.
I sat down at a 2/5 game, and played for 30 minutes. The game had several short stacks and was super splashy. Sometimes that’s fun, but it’s usually gets boring quickly as the best way to play is just sit and wait for a premium hand. Zzzzzzzzzz
They opened up a third 5/10 feeder game, and feeling like my skills were sharp recently, I thought tonight would be a good night to take a shot. I bought in for \$1300, played for a 30 minutes, won a few pots and then got moved to the main game.
Everyone agreed to a \$20 straddle, so now it’s a 5/10/20. I got hit by the deck, and using my business man image, quickly ran up my stack to about \$4500. Mostly by using the pro’s and reg’s aggression against them. I cover everyone in the hand ...
OTT
I am UTG and put out the \$20 straddle.
UTG +1 opens to 70 (stack 1500). Asian early 30s, everyone talking to him like he is reg in this game. I played with him in the feeder to this table, he open 3bet a bit more than average but has not gotten out of line. Has only been at this game about 30 min.
UTG +2 flats (stack 1200). Older man mid 60s, pretty tight pre-flop, rarely 3bets pre, but has shown some bluffs post-flop. Has run a bit bad, and has tightened up considerably.
MP 3 bets to 210 (stack 2200). white guy early 30s, Think he is a reg too. has been very tight, but was giving off a tilted vibe. I find out later he is down a few thousand from before I sat down.
CO flats (stack 4000). White guy 50s. Has been loose, opening and 3betting regularly. Very swingy. Has won and lost some big pots.
Button and blinds who all have bigger stacks (6K +) fold.
Back to me UTG. I have JTcc.
What to do?
I think all three options are viable.
Call: My biggest concern was getting repopped by either of the UTGs who were shorter stacked.
Fold: Against 4 random hands, JT suited actually has 28% equity there, but only if it goes multi-way, I am OOP and most importantly, these are not random hands.
Raise : the more I think about this hand, the more I think this is a viable option, albeit scary. It is related to 3bet and 4bet ranges pre-flop. This is where I am trying to do work on my game, as it will help me at 2/5 as well.
But I need help with the math. Is this what solvers do? You can put your opponents ranges into a calculator and it gives your direct equity and then adjust for implied odds? I don’t have this solver, curious if anyone can run the numbers for me. And recommend one.
I also acknowledge that it will be hard to realize my equity OOP, although it won’t be that hard given almost all of their SPRs will get pretty small after a flop bet. I think if I was closing the action, I would be thinking very differently.
I folded, but wish I didn’t ... it went 3 way and flop came KQ9 rainbow and 2 players got all the chips in. 5K+ pot that original raiser won with a set of queens.
Let her rip ...

##### [Serious]There is so much information out there that im feeling overwhelmed.

I have played home games for years, but started to think about poker more seriously. I have found that i am 1. Terrible at poker and 2. Dont know a fucking thing about poker. As im reading and watching videos i feel like nothing is sinking in. Ranges, odds, positions, theres just so much its overwhelming. Like... How does position dictate your range of hands? And how are ranges even calculated? Why should i fold a 92o pre flop? What if the river comes out with a 9 2? And say I have AKs and raise preflop then i get nothing on the flop? Should i still bet? Should i not? How the hell do you guys remember all this shit? I dont want to use real money to learn as i go, but ai games and play money are garbage. Im finding very quickly that i just dont understand anything about this game. I went from feeling confident in my own ability to feeling like a kid playing go fish... Please give me advice on where i should i start... Cause there are literally thousands of books and videos...

##### LolLivePoker Tips and Tricks

I've been a member of this sub for about a year now. I've noticed that pretty much all of the hand histories from lollivepoker are at low stakes. Lets just knock this fucker out of the park with a mega thread. Feel free to add anything, questions comments queries or theories.
How to beat lollivestakes (1/2 and 2/5). Yes we should be 3 betting AKs. Yes most of you (hopefully) already know this shit.
• Keeping track of action. Important step to crushing poker obv. I like to think of every hand as a 4 column Excel graph. Aggressor, raiser(if), bet, callers. Then I keep a running tab that closes after PF and each street after. This allows you to easily (read:quickly) keep track of action and not tank for two minutes while you wonder who led the flop. It may feel awkward at first but this is how I do it and it is second nature now. Others may have other methods of keeping track of betting that can stop you from looking like a dumbass while you twiddle your thumbs and slow down the game.
• Pot size. This is obvious as fuck. If you've ever stared at the pot and thought "wow that is a shit load of chips" you are 100% doing it wrong. You should know the amount in the pot at every given moment for obvious reasons. Any PLO players can vouch for me that keeping track of PSBs becomes completely second nature after a while to the point that I know the size of pots even in hands that I am not playing. This is useful as fuck. A way that I practiced this and pot odds is to keep track of the pot size and calculate what odds and sizing you are laying with a PSB, half pot, overbet etc. You get the point. Keep track of the pot size. I think a big step in my game was seeing odds instead of just thinking "holy fuck that is a big bet". Simple?
• Pacing. This is obvious for multiple reasons. The main one being that nobody likes people who play slowly. It also helps with table image, nobody likes playing with somebody they think is some autistic savant whose using his PhD to play a card game. They wanna play with the guy who is drinking smoking cussing gambling. Easy to bypass this. It's called ready golf. I gamble a lot on the golf course. But I always seem like I don't give a fuck and never take forever. I drink, I smoke and keep the fish hooked. Because every hole I'm making a plan from the beginning. Where is a good miss? Lay up? Pin placement? These are all part of the plan before I tee off. This is important because it allows me to play quickly and not annoy others by taking fucking forever every shot. You should be approaching poker the same way. Whether it be LOLLIVEREADS, betting patterns, position you name it. These should all be running through your head to make a road map of the different ways this hand could go. Figure your pacing out. If you are stunned that he donked the flop and you have to spend 25 seconds reevaluating you are doing it wrong. You should already have been thinking that through, you should not do all of your thinking when the action is on you. You need to be thinking the whole hand so that when it's on you it doesn't look like you are thinking the whole hand. Also, fast pace of play is just better for the game. Live is slow enough.
• Rake. Take it into account. Remember that the only person who always wins at poker every time is the house. There are games out there that the rake makes unbeatable. Don't think you are above this. Educate yourself.
• Tanking. Don't fucking tank. If you are scared of getting a couple C notes in ahead you aren't rolled for live poker. No decision in live low stakes requires minutes of mulling over. Period. Unless you need the money for Similac, I think you will live if you get sucked out on.
• Table image / getting action. Don't be a dweeb. That shot of Jameson isn't going to fucking kill you. Don't talk about money politics or religion. Nothing good is gonna come of it, even if you are jacking each other off about how Trump throws rocks at minorities. At best someone will disagree with you or like you less. At worst you'll get a sob story about some bitch wife who took everything in the divorce. Either way. Also, lie about your job, be a account executive or some shit. I HATE giving action to poor people. If you are a (part time) scheister lawyer like me, don't tell people that. I've had a lot of different jobs. A small amount of social skills will help you read the situation. For the love of God, do not say you are a professional poker player. If you are a pro player sitting in 300 max 1/2 I am going to laugh at you, not just for saying that you are a professional poker player while playing poker, but in general.
• Hygiene and food. Shower, you fucking animal. Do not eat or order food that smells strongly. I hate eating at the table and I hate sitting next to somebody who is eating, ESPECIALLY if I can smell the food. Obviously this isn't against the rules so go for it but at least show some common courtesy and order something that doesn't reek. This next part is mainly for HIGH STAKES BALLERS. Don't fucking bring your backpack full of snacks and goodies to the casino. You look like a fucking nerd. And you're at a casino with restaurants, and waiters. When you bring a backpack full of your pre made tupperware lunch and power bars it becomes pretty apparent to the fish/whales that you aren't just there to throw some cards around. Get it together you fucking idiots, it should already be shameful enough that we spend a large amount of time in a depressing as fuck casino, you shouldn't feel the need to add to that by bringing mommy's brown bag lunch you underdeveloped leech.
• How to win (read: the point). If you can't beat 1/2 and 2/5 you are impatient. This will probably be the shortest segment. If you have a good table image and talk about baseball and hookers or whatever, NOBODY at those stakes is gonna notice you are folding a ton of hands OOP and playing/defending position aggressively/leading. Only run bluffs against scared money (nits, women, etc.). Value. Value. Value. No fancy play. Before you get on your high horse about LOLLIVEPLAYERS, remember that the majority of poker players are there to have FUN. And don't care how good they are. They aren't jaded cynical assholes like the majority of HIGH STAKES BALLERS I know who leech off the happy patrons of the casino. If you can't beat live low stakes you are impatient, that is all. If playing straight forward, ABC, winning poker is boring for you that's okay. That means you just like gambling. I do too. If I had to play ABC poker 1/2 100BBs deep for more than a hour I'd be running not walking to the nearest gun store or bridge. Cheers!
• Mixed Games. I have to pimp mixed games cause they are the shit and my thing. But also I think it is weird to call yourself a poker player and only know how to play NLHE. They are also useful for game selection. Sometimes NLHE isn't the game that has the most dead money. I've had massive sessions at limit with kill and I guarantee some of the ridiculously bad play I've seen at Omaha8 would put pride in the hearts of the biggest fish at your local 1/2 game. Remember, this is about making money. You like money right? If you follow these steps you too can probably make the same amount of money I made waiting tables at a fancy restaurant in high school!
• Flipping. Do it. It's neutral EV and makes people think you aren't a nit bitch. You need people to give action to make money. I don't give action to people who turn down straddles and flips. Just don't trust them. Like people who don't drink. if you are in LA/Vegas I'd be happy to show you how a true flipping professional can dust off a few Gs in the span of a couple PLO flips. It'll all even out in the long run, right? Law of large numbers or something or other.
Feel free to add to this or tell me to fold pre.

##### I am new to poker and I think everyone calculates pot odds wrong (or I'm an idiot). Change my mind ;)

(English isn't my first language so if my wording seems a little off - that's why.)
I've recently decided to get serious about learning poker and one of the first things I was taught was, obviously, pot odds. All the guides that I've read consistently teach the same algorithm for calculating pot odds but I was suspicious as to whether or not that algorithm gives you actual pot odds, I did the math and it turns out I was right (again, unless I'm an idiot)
Let's look at the following example (for the sake of the example, let's assume the are no blinds):
4 players at the table, you are on the button. Someone bets 50\$, everyone (including you) calls. There is now 200\$ in the pot. After the flop, small blind (there are no blinds but you know what I mean) bets 100\$, 2 players before you fold and now it's up to you to decide whether to call or not.
There is 300\$ in the pot and your price to call is 100\$. Now, every guide I've read so far says the following:
300\$ in the pot, you have to call 100\$ so your pot odds are 3:1. For every 3 times you lose you need to win once to break even. Here's why I think this thinking is wrong, let's do the math:
Pre-flop there is 200\$ in the pot but 50\$ of that 200\$ is yours. Post flop someone bets 100\$ so there is 300\$ in the pot (still, 50\$ of those 300\$ is yours). You have to call 100\$ and if you do, there will be 400\$ in the pot and 150\$ of those 400\$ is yours. You have a 25% chance of winning if you call. Let's play that hand 4 times:
You lose three times, every time putting 150\$ into the pot. The one time you win, you put 150\$ into the pot and get 400\$ in return. So your earn 400\$ - 150\$ = 250\$. So your total earnings after 4 hands are 250\$ - 3*150\$ = -200\$. You are behind.
If before calling there is 250\$ in the pot from other players + 50\$ from you and you have to call 100\$ then I believe your pot odds are actually 250:150 = 5:3 rather than 3:1 which is what everyone says. So I say: to break even you have to win 3/8*100% = 37,5% of the hands rather than 25%. Let's do the math again, this time we have to play 8 hands:
For every 5 times you lose you put 150\$ in the pot and for every time you win you put 150\$ in the pot and get 400\$ in return, earning 250\$. So after 8 hands your earnings are: 3*250\$ - 5*150 = 750\$ - 750\$ = 0. So in this scenario you need to win 37,5% of the times, not 25% to break even, right?
What is going on? I'm well aware how impossible it is that the whole world is wrong and I'm right, especially considering that you don't need to be a math genius to get these results.
So where is my thinking incorrect? Please explain.

##### Vegas trip report

I wanted to thank this sub. I enjoy reading it and have learned some from you folks.
I’m 44 have been playing off and on for 10+ years but just recently decided that poker was a good outlet for me and have been working on my game and studying and winning a little.
Was in Vegas last month and just wanted to share a little -
I played in two MTTs - the first was Friday at Excalibur. Buy in was cheap - \$40 I think. I played okay. Overall quality of the play was not that great- lots of beginners and a few regulars. The poker room/area there is in the middle of the casino floor and not well ventilated. The smoke kind of gave me fits. I played okay, my final hand I bet poorly and lost and had AK spades flop was J89 spades. I called a modest post flop bet by the villain - probably should have raised. Turn comes Jh. Villain shoves. I call. River is a Jack. I think I finished 16 out of 50 something.
Played the Monday tournament at the Aria. The card room there is fantastic - nice space, wonderful staff, great drinks. I think buy in was \$115. Played for 7 hours and met some great people. I made the final table and was the lowest finisher in the money. Honestly at the end I was done playing and really wanted to go get a nice dinner- had a reservation that I cancelled during a break but the restaurant told me that if I came later they’d do everything they could to get me a table.
Anyway, final hand was (oddly enough) AK clubs. I’m in late position. Villain is a middle aged woman with a wide calling range. I had seen her shove pre with 77 and 88 earlier. Anyway she shoves pre. I am still proud of myself for paying attention earlier and remembering her range. I figured her to have a modest pair and remembered that my odds are about 50% preflop (actually I have learned they are a bit worse) with AK suited so I called. She had 99. I didn’t hit the board, but I had fun and won some money.
I’m not asking for a formal hand analysis but I am curious what others think about calling a pre flop shove on a player like that when you have a good read. In the end it was right for me because I was either going to go eat that delicious dinner or eat a burger and grind away hoping for a chop.
Anyway I enjoy the sub. Thanks and go check out the Aria. Wonderful facility for poker.
EDIT: I admire everyone on here’s passion for the game. We both had about 30 BB or so.
I like EV calculations etc but sometimes EV should include delicious dinner vs eating another burger when you already had one for lunch.

##### [Hand analysis] How do you play AK in the SB?

\$0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
MP+2: 124.4 BB (VPIP: 39.13, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
CO: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 47.83, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
BTN: 139.4 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
Hero (SB): 183.6 BB
BB: 39.4 BB (VPIP: 73.68, PFR: 42.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
UTG: 121 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 23)
UTG+1: 58.8 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP: 66.2 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP+1: 27 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Kh Ac
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, BB raises to 39.4 BB (ALL IN), UTG calls 36.4 BB, Hero calls 30.4 BB
Flop : (118.2 BB, 3 players) 8s 9c 4c
Hero checks, UTG bets 59 BB, Hero calls 59 BB
Turn : (236.2 BB, 3 players) 9d
Hero checks, UTG bets 22.6 BB (ALL IN), Hero calls 22.6 BB
River : (281.4 BB, 3 players) Th
Hero mucks Kh Ac (One Pair, Nines)
Main Pot [118.2 BB]: (Pre 32%, Flop 23%, Turn 12%)
Side Pot [163.2 BB]: (Pre 39%, Flop 25%, Turn 12%)
BB shows Js As (One Pair, Nines)
Main Pot [118.2 BB]: (Pre 13%, Flop 7%, Turn 0%)
UTG shows Qs Qd (Two Pair, Queens and Nines)
Main Pot [118.2 BB]: (Pre 54%, Flop 69%, Turn 88%)
Side Pot [163.2 BB]: (Pre 61%, Flop 75%, Turn 88%)
UTG wins 267.4 BB
For the record, I've been playing poker for around a month in total and I've only played about 10k hands for real money so far. I played this hand 2 weeks ago, so I can't remember exactly what I was thinking at the time, but it was on my list of hands to review.
Things I could have done differently:
• Calling instead of 3betting? Obviously I'm never folding AK to an initial bet. However, I've had it drilled into my head by Blackrain79 that most of the time I should be looking to either fold or 3bet unless I'm set mining. So i decided to 3bet.
• Larger bet size? Since I am out of position, maybe I should have 3bet to 4x instead of 3x the initial bet?
• Folding to the 4bet from BB? This BB was playing very loose. I don't know whether or not that factored into my decision. But with a 4bet and a call after my 3bet, I think it wouldn't be the worst decision to just lay it down here.
• Folding to UTG's flop bet? At this point, I missed the flop. To call this bet, I needed about 3 to 1 odds for it to be worth it to continue. I had 6 outs to TPTK plus a backdoor nut flush draw. I'm still not great at calculating pot odds, so I don't know exactly whether I should have folded or not in this situation. I have a feeling I should have folded though.
The biggest reason I'm posting this for analysis is I just simply don't know how to play AK. How often should you 3bet with it? How often should you just call? How often should you call a 4bet?

##### Reddit, help our table settle an argument: it's the first hand of the WSOP main event. You have AA in big blind. ALL NINE players go all-in preflop -- do you fold or call?

Im in my own little camp that folding AA is the best move, while everyone else says that they would call, with arguments and buzz phrases like "expected value" and "chip leader" and "chip bully" and "you can check your way to the money" and the like.
The general argument (for calling AA preflop as last to act) is, "but we would have so many more chips than anyone."
You start out with \$30,000 in chips and would have \$270,000 IF you won. And apparently at the end of day one the blinds are 200/400 with 50 ante. So, assuming that's true, and assuming that 300x the Big blind is a "big hand," (as in, the pot is 300x the BB, not that necessarily any one person would be accountable for 150x the BB on the flop, since 300x the BB could be built up by, say, a 4-way pot with sizable bets the whole way) then a "big hand" could very well be around HALF of a stack of an pre-flop aces winner, meaning that there's a good chance that the pre-flop aces winner wouldn't be the chip leader at the end of Day One.
And this is assuming that the person beats the odds and wins.
My main arguments are that 1) you are a "favorite" to lose the hand in general and 2) once you're out, you're out, and any formula doesn't take into account of "poker death" ie inability to rebuy, thus making \$0 a much bigger deal than "in general," since presumably you can rebuy in other cash/non-tourney situations.
Even calculating the odds with a mix of non-all-in hands (78 suited) and strong hands (KK, QQ), AND leaving both aces left to be live in the remaining deck, the odds on aces winning all the way were 29.96%.
Again, that's assuming that there are still two live aces and no one with AK or AQ suited etc.
So, assuming there are no right or wrong answers, what are the best arguments for and against calling AA PREFLOP on the first hand of the World Series of poker against NINE other players going all in BEFORE you.

##### Check-Calling 101

Full-disclosure: I copy pasted a lot of these examples from a check-calling COTW post on 2+2, but edited it to add more HH examples and math. Anything in italics was originally written by NJD77 from 2+2.
These posts are not meant to be encyclopedic, so let me know if you disagree with anything and why. Revisiting fundamental concepts is allowing me to reflect and reevaluate my own game, so I may continue to do similar posts where I elaborate on 2+2 COTWs. I’m not really sure what the target demographic is for these posts, so let me know if I need to do more or less explaining. The second half of this post explains concepts explained in the Matthew Janda Cardrunner’s video “You’re doing it wrong – part 1”. He explains it better than me, so I recommend you pick up a CR subscription if you haven’t already.
Check-calling is a very tricky line at the micros for a number of reasons:
• We are always OOP (unless you try to check/call in position, which is a very advanced play)
• If we only check-call with medium strength hands then our opponent may know this and start putting us to the test on turns and rivers
• It's just "easier" on future streets when we bet instead of check-calling
Part 1 - Fundamental Check-Calling Spots
1. When a Villain offers us direct odds to draw to a hand that beats his range. Sometimes villains will just make horrible bet sizing errors when they are holding a clear strong value hand. If we can't check-raise because we don't think he will ever fold, and we're behind his range but have equity to make a check-call versus his bet size, then we should do it.
This doesn’t occur that often, but if we know villain has a top-pair hand he won’t fold, we can call a 15% pot bet with hands like an OESD just based on direct odds. This rarely happens, hence the amount of effort I put into this example.
2. When a villain offers us implied odds to draw to a hand that beats his range. Preferably we will have both direct and implied odds, but often we will find we only have implied odds. In my opinion, this occurs more often than example 1.
100bb effective stacks. A super tight villain raises to 3x from UTG. MP calls, the CO calls, and the SB calls. You call with 67s in the BB. The flop is 258r. You check, and the UTG raiser bets ~60% pot. It folds around to you. First let’s look at the UTG raiser’s range:
A tight player raised from UTG. He then cbets into 4 people. If you can’t tell already, I engineered this example to give him a super strong range. I think it would be reasonable to say his range is usually just {JJ, QQ, KK, AA}. Therefore, let’s evaluate our options when facing this cbet:
Raise – I think this is the worst option. You are stacking off 99% of the time when you raise, which is a pretty bad-news-Bernstein-bears situation when you have 8 outs. I shouldn’t need to do any math to prove that stacking off against an overpair with 7 high and an OESD is not a +EV play.
Fold – Probably the second best option. You have the worst hand, but obviously the downside to folding is that you are punting the equity you undoubtedly have.
Call – If you didn’t figure it out already from the title of this post, calling is the best option here. You aren’t getting direct odds to call, but we are getting pretty dank implied odds. Let’s do some math:
This tight villain is not folding his hand on a 9 or a 4. If we bink the turn, we are stacking him by the river. We know the following:
(1) After the preflop action, the pot size is 13.5BB.
(2) Villain cbets for 7.5bb.
(3) Villain has ~90bb left after this cbet.
(4) There are 46 possible turn cards, and 8 of them give you a straight.
Therefore, we can calculate the EV of calling:
On 8 turns, we win ~120bb (the pot, our call, and villain’s stack). On 38 turns, we win 0bb and will probably check/fold if villain bets huge and doesn’t give us the direct or implied odds to call again.
EV of Calling = (\$ won when we bink) + (\$ won when we miss) – (Price of the call)
EV of Calling = (Our call + pot size + villains remaining stack)(% we bink) + (0) – (Our call)
EV of Calling = (7.5BB +21bb + 90bb)(8/46) + (0)(38/46) – (7.5bb)
EV of Calling = ~13bb
We can also use this formula to calculate the break-even point. How much would villain have to cbet with his overpair for calling to be –EV?
EV of Calling = (\$ won when we bink) + (\$ won when we miss) – (Price of the call)
0 = (X+21bb + 90bb)(8/46) + (0)(38/46) – (X)
X = 23.4
This calculation shows how powerful implied odds can be. Even if villain would have cbet for 23.3BB (into a pot of 13.5bb), we can still call with only 8 outs. However, this entire example relies heavily on the fact that we are stacking this villain every single time we make our straight. Do not overvalue your implied odds and start chasing draws against wide ranges, as this is a quick way to lose money. Furthermore, in this example we could actually calculate our implied odds because we know that villain only has one type of hand in his range and we know exactly what he is doing with it. Usually, implied odds are impossible to actually calculate mathematically so they rely on estimation and assumptions.
3. When boards are dry and we are in a WA/WB spot, villain is not a double barreller, and does stab at pots when checked to. Often we get no value when we are ahead and value town ourselves when behind if we bet a flop. We can therefore opt for a check-call, but only if we're sure our villain isn't the type to bet/bet/bet if he reads our action as weak.
The button raises and we flat AT in the BB. The flop is the legendary A72r. Let’s review our options:
Donk - This would be pretty bad because most villains are cbetting this board with their entire range. If villain is cbetting hands like 55 or KQ, then this is very good for us and we shouldn’t give him the chance to fold them.
Check-Raise - On such a dry board, check-raising will probably confuse our villain. He may fold hands like A9 that would have given us another street of value. By check-raising, we prevent him from double-barreling with KQ in an attempt to get us to fold a hand like 99. Therefore, this option is pretty bad.
Check-fold - We have top pair. Our pair can’t get any topper. It’s pretty clear why this is bad.
Check-call - Surprise surprise, once again this is the best option. We allow our opponent to value-own himself with worse Ax and we get maximum value from our hand.
4. When we are multiway - implied odds always rise when we are multiway. The important thing to note here is our relative position, and we don't want to be check-calling if we're a long way from closing the action. The closer we are to closing the action, the more inclined we should be to check-call. I stole the following example from the COTW post because it works pretty well:
Poker Stars, \$0.10/\$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker SoftwareSuite. View Hand #10108022
Hero (SB): \$25 (100 bb) BB: \$30.35 (121.4 bb) MP1: \$34.27 (137.1 bb) MP2: \$23.95 (95.8 bb) MP3: \$34.28 (137.1 bb) CO: \$30.84 (123.4 bb) BTN: \$26.76 (107 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 9s Ts MP1 raises to \$1, MP2 folds, MP3 calls \$1, CO calls \$1, BTN calls \$1, Hero calls \$0.90, BB folds
Flop: (\$5.25) 5d Jh 8s (5 players) Hero checks, MP1 bets \$4.25, MP3 folds, CO calls \$4.25, BTN folds, Hero calls \$4.25
Turn: (\$18) Qd (3 players) Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO checks
River: (\$18) Jc (3 players) Hero bets \$19.75 and is all-in, MP1 folds, CO calls \$19.75
Results: \$57.50 pot (\$2 rake) Final Board: 5d Jh 8s Qd Jc Hero showed 9s Ts and won \$55.50 (\$30.50 net) MP1 mucked and lost (-\$5.25 net) CO showed Ac Jd and lost (-\$25 net)
In this scenario, we’re getting really good direct odds AND implied odds. Think about what happens when one of the villains has QJ and hits 2-pair on the turn. The MP player bets 80% pot into 4 players, so he usually has a strong value hand and this increases our implied odds.
• When we have the best hand and worse will call if we bet (ldo!) - this is basics and should arise out of our process of elimination above.
• With TP/MP type hands multiway - these are terrible hands to check-call with, as they rarely improve on later streets (and by improve I'm not counting 2-pair as much of an improvement!) They have lots of reverse implied odds and generally we are just hopping aboard the express train to value town when we start check-calling TP/MP type hands, especially multiway.This is a major leak for a lot of players.
• On turns with a strong hand, where we were the preflop and flop aggressor. I see this so often, where someone opens KK pre, bets a QT7 flop, then when a villain floats, they get major Monsters-Under-the-Bed and start check-calling a turn 7. This has to be another bet for value the huge majority of the time, and yet people just surrender the initiative with no good reason. They are spewing value, and putting themselves in horrible turn and river positions. They often cite terms such as pot-control, which is even more horrible! This is also a major leak for a lot of players
• We have a value hand on a wet board that we don't want villain to check back with. Ex: we have KK on KJ9ss as the PFR or villain raises preflop and we have 99 on Tc9c8s
Part 2 - Advanced Check-Calling Spots
If you’re a beginning uNL player, then it might be good to skip the following section and come back to it when you feel more comfortable with fundamental concepts like equity. The following examples are similar to examples from a Matthew Janda video that was directed towards SSNL players. I’m going to try to paraphrase his examples
Let’s evaluate a 9h 6d 4d board in which we opened the SB and the BB calls.
Which hands make good bets? Value hands that retain equity well and bluffs.
Value bet hands: JJ, 98, K6, etc.
Bluffs: T8s, Kd8h, Ah5h. These hands all have robust equity in the form of draws or multiple backdoors.
But what do you do with AK/AQ in this spot? These are hands that most players cbet on this board every single time. And this isn’t a huge mistake, as cbetting these hands is undoubtedly +EV. However, check-calling can be MORE +EV.
When our villain calls in the BB, he can have a very wide range of hands. Therefore, by cbetting with AK on a 9h 6d 4d board, we get our opponents to fold hands like K7. Very few hands like this that we beat are calling our cbet, and this is especially important OOP. So what happens when we check-call?
Some uNL villains will just auto-bet with KJ when checked to because they assume you’re giving up. We have these hands absolutely crushed. KJ has 3 outs (jacks) and 2 tainted outs (kings). If our opponent bets the flop he is checking back a lot of turns, allowing us to realize our showdown value. If we check-call and the turn is an A or K, then we can win a big pot against villain’s A7/KJ-type hands. In this scenario, you’re getting 3 streets of value from a hand that might have folded the flop had you cbet. Or, some of the time, villain may bet the flop with QJ and decide to barrel on an A or K.
Potential Issues: If we only check/call as the preflop raiser in these spots with hands like AK/AQ, then we can be exploited pretty easily. Against a player who won’t notice this and adjust, we don’t need to worry about balance. Against a thinking player, we can balance our range by sometimes check-calling with strong hands. I’m a fish when it comes to balance though so input here might be needed.
Similar example:
We open the CO with AcKh, BU calls. Flop is 8c 5c 3d. We should check-call. We keep dominated hands in villain’s range and give ourselves a better chance of realizing our showdown value. We don’t want to have to fold to a raise. We can bink a runner runner club sometimes.
To summarize, here are good reasons to check/call as the preflop raiser:
• We can induce villain into betting with hands we dominate
• We hate getting raised
• Cbetting gets our opponent to fold most hands we beat
• We have backdoor draws
• Our opponent may barrel on future streets on cards that improve our hands
If you got this far, thanks for reading!

##### Should I be making this Hero call on the river?

Poker Stars \$0.02/\$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 2988082 The Reddit Poker Converter - Poker Videos by DeucesCracked
BTN: \$3.16 Hero (SB): \$5.47 BB: \$5.14 UTG: \$5.20 UTG+1: \$5.00 MP: \$5.00 CO: \$5.13
Pre Flop: (\$0.07) Hero is SB with K A 4 folds, BTN raises to \$0.15, Hero raises to \$0.41, 1 fold, BTN calls \$0.26
Flop: (\$0.87) 2 2 6 (2 players) Hero bets \$0.28, BTN calls \$0.28
Turn: (\$1.43) 8 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN checks
River: (\$1.43) 5 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN bets \$0.68, Hero calls \$0.68
Villain only has 30 hands on the table but is pretty standard. 28VPIP, 13PFR.
I always like to 3b here with AK as I think the BTN is going to call with a lot of weaker aces.
We miss the flop and I nearly always Cbet any dry flop when we have AK and miss. We take down the pot enough of the time.
Villain calls, but I expect him to float the flop here with a lot of hands.
On the turn we still don't improve, but it is a relative blank (he can have 88 and sometimes A8s, we're at 5NL don't forget). I decide to check, and probably fold to a bet bigger than 40% pot. He can have 66-QQ at lot here. Maybe we should call any turn bet?
We don't improve on the river, but it's a relative blank again and check hoping to showdown and beat a weaker ace, but villain bets just under half pot. To begin with I'm pretty convinced I am going to fold but begin to think about what he can actually have here. Am I right in thinking he is never really checking the turn with a pocket pair or made hand, and there's very few hands that improve on the river? We aren't getting great pot odds on a call, but I feel that we are beating enough hands to make it a profitable call?
Also, I've never totally understood the whole Pot Odds/how often we need to be right calculation, so if someone can explain it'd be appreciated.

##### Questions and some thoughts about "moving up to where they respect my raises" and my game. Sng Micros level 2(LONG)

Ok so its been some months since ive been grinding and things are really going very well for me now. Im a SNG micro grinder and I feel right now my game is above everyone at that stake, not because being god level but because everyone is lol bad haha.
Even multitablers I think some of them are really just about going broke doing so much funky newbie stuff and not even knowing correct push fold game and so. In 6 max there are some decent regs but the best already moved up and 9 man is just a joke, nobody knows anything haha.
I have not met a good reg at 1.50\$ SNGs yet, and I know I made a post some time ago about 9 man structure being horrible, and now I deeply regret. This was based on my beginner experience and not on my current skill level.
When I began playing I obviously had no idea about poker and less about nash equilibrium ranges(I would only push AJ+ regardless the position lol). And so I was hardly winning at that time.
Today my game has evolved a lot and it just amazes me every month I feel like I know everything then realize theres smth else I could improve. Now that Ive started to play more tables I have transitioned from 6 max to mainly 9 man again, and its going amazing. Right now and after over 6k games and great ROI(haven't opted in sharkscope so I don't know the precise number) and ITM% of like 42% at my best I feel im used to any spot and any player. I have improved dramatically in everything and developed a smth like 90% balanced play that helps me to basically play in any field.
I do admit though that there are some weaknesses in my game I believe I wont ever be able to perfectly fix. Mainly the on the fly math stuff. Like If I get to the river with top pair facing a triple barrel my thought process is "he does this with every bricked draw, CALL" "everything got there, FOLD"; my decisions are say, rudimentary. I cant call out exactly the combos villain is doing plays with, nor can I calculate the exact pot odds I need on a given spot.
To help the later I have developed standard bet sizes I can call at some point with certain hands, like anything less than a pot size bet on the flop is good with a flush draw.
I don't excel at the math stuff but Ive found my way standardizing spots and just memorizing, because especially with a 15 seconds time bank I cant call out the exact odds or combos on time.
But anyways, other than that I believe my game is already at a great level and now its time to move up in stakes. I am massively over rolled for the 1.50 Sngs but Im a huge bankroll nit and instead of moving up ins takes, every time I won like 100 buy ins, I would open another table haha what a pussy... However I cant do this anymore because I like to tile and my second monitor isn't coming up until the end of January.
So now that Im going to play some 3.50 dollars SNG Im just gonna fire what ever question comes to mind about it as its a completely unknown territory for me:
1. Whats the difference in skill level? Like overall player pool, I'd expect some grinders that already moved up from 1.50 to start to be good. But what about the recs and rec regs(lol, we all know them :P), is there a good amount of them?
2. How is the 3 betting and squeezing there? a lil more light? the same?
Not that I would have trouble adjusting to a wide 3 bettor, just flat decent stuff and stack off with any piece(SNGs not very deep stacked), easy game :P Sometimes 4 bet jam semi bluff smth like TT+ but yeah anyways, I make that question.
Personally I love to over limp and flat more than whatever average "lets punk all pots" reg; to small ball here and there(also so my squeezes and 3 bets get respected when I rather take it down pre), and only 3 bet or squeeze if flatting is awful, so Im already used to handle squeezes and the mid and high levels give me experience on big pots so I believe I can handle it very well. I just wonder if this are the games where 3 betting becomes more common.
1. Is overall ROI including rake back better or worse?
Well as we know rake decreases and rake back increases as we move up in SNG stakes, but prolly the field gets tougher. So what's up with that.
1. Hows the volume in these things? It worries me that 9 handed SNGS is completely dead at higher stakes, so I wonder if I should transition to other games like MTTS and at what point.
2. Should I for sure for sure buy some of these program/software/subscription things?
Tbh I have never felt any need for anything other than push fold ranges that I can get for free with holdem resources. As I said I like to play a mostly GTO style and I don't feel the need to make max exploitations other than very relevant stuff that become apparent even 10 tabling.
I am however interested in things like knowing, whats my lifetime profit/loss from playing a certain hand in a certain spot; but I understand in SNGs raw chip Ev is not very relevant because of ICM, right? So I rather just keep doing like I have so far with pencil, paper and vague memory?
I think that's it guys, I would be happy to receive some responses

##### SwanpJew's Sunday Showdown - August 17, 2014

Wow. What a week. I've taken some horrendous beats and barely broke even: I'm only up 6 BI. How embarrassing. I debated whether I should share these lackluster results with you, my loyal readers, and decided my ego was forfeit if I can help at least one of you learn to weather the swings of the world's greatest intellectual and psychological challenge: live 1/2NL.
If you find this helpful (read: you have half a brain), spread the word on your favorite poker blogs and forums, because it's, like, even money that I'm banned from there. The latest book in my series, SwanpJew's Power Poker Guide to Dodging Ace-High Flops with Pocket Kings, should be on shelves at the end of this month. It won't, but it should be.
This week's topic is dealing with being card dead.
It's not “fold pre,” because “fold pre” is the mantra of the unimaginative.
When you fold your hand pre-flop, the fancy mathematics whizzes with their EV calculations say it nets you exactly nothing. I'm sorry, but aren't we at the poker table to make money, not not make money? You don't see Phil Ivey folding pre or Daniel Negreanu folding ever. So I guess “fold pre” if you don't want to be a ten-time bracelet winner or pull in \$29 milly in tournament cashes. Go ahead and fold on those 29,000,000:2 odds for two measly bucks. Idiot.
[Editor's note: Sorry. SwanpJew gets a little cranky when he thinks about people folding. Please don't stop reading.]
1/2 NL at Bennie Bunion's Horse Tack Casino in Slidell, Louisiana (burned down; now a for-profit college / chicken and waffles restaurant)
Hero (UTG): \$2,775 CardCounter0 (MP): \$527 Old Lady With A Super-Annoying Card Protector That Makes Her Take Forever to Muck (HJ): \$104.25 Old Asian Nit (CO): \$50 [Villain 1] Old Cuban Guy With His Shirt Unbuttoned to Show off His Chest Mane (BU): \$5,100 Uncomfortably Close Fat Guy (SB): \$440 [Villain 2] Liv Boeree (BB): \$3,169
Background: Villain 1 is your classic maniac. I've spotted him raising from all positions with ATC, building a massive pot, then carrying the initiative to the river where he shoves in the dark. He's run his \$50 buy-in up to his current stack. I'd be impressed if he wasn't doing a Sam Farha impression with an unlit drinking straw.
Villain 2 seems to really have it out for Hero. She's in every hand Hero is in. She seems to be trying to soul-read Hero even when the dealer is washing the deck. It's freakin' me out, man.
Hero has a fairly LAG image and range. The whole table is terrified of Hero, as evidenced by the look of extreme boredom and fatigue on their faces. Classic defense mechanism.
Action:
Preflop: Hero has Qc2d. Hero calls.
MP, HJ, CO fold. Villain 1 sounds suspiciously like Tony Montana and makes it tir-teen to go.
SB folds. BB stares at Hero.
BB says, “Will you call if I call?”
Dealer says, “Players will refrain from discussing the hand, please.”
BB tanks. Hero sighs and nods. BB calls \$13.
Hero calls.
MP flags a cocktail waitress and asks for a shooter of Metamucil with a Low-Sodium V8 chaser.
Pot to the flop: \$40
Preflop Thoughts: I know what the other guys say in their books. Throw those books out the window.
[Editor's note: Open the window first! The publisher shall not be liable for damaged windows or devastated bankrolls.]
Despite what you might have read, Queen-deuce offsuit plays well out out of position in a multi-way pot. They'll never give you credit for a queen when you hit and better queens will fold because they're thinking they're dominated. Q2 is essentially the nuts here. We're in good shape for a river shove if needed. I think. I can't remember much of my thought process, because MP keeps trying to tell me about his grandkids.
Flop: 5sTs8h
BB: Checks, tapping the felt dangerously close to Hero's hand. Not his cards—his actual hand. Frickin' Furples, with your spoilers. You'll be hearing from my lawyer.
[Editor's note: He's probably just blowing off steam, Furples. Lawyer up just in case, though.)
Hero: Checks.
BU: Says, “Hoo-ah!” and bets \$60.
Hero: Says, “Can you please pick one Pacino character impression and stick with it? Jesus.”
BB: Calls.
Hero: Calls.
Pot to the turn: \$220
Flop Thoughts: A flop c-bet from a maniac like Serpico over there means nothing. No matter how well that flop intersects with his likely holdings, no matter how crappy my own hand is, no matter how distracting it is that BB keeps “accidentally” rubbing her leg against mine under the table (god, she's wearing that perfume that makes her smell like pumpkin pie), no matter how unlikely it is that my hand will improve while the pot bloats – I am not folding.
Turn Qd
BB: Checks, sexily.
Hero: Checks.
BU: Says, “Say hello to my li'l frien'!” and bets \$170.
Dealer: Says, “Players will refrain from doing any more impressions, please.”
MP: Gets a call on his Jitterbug and excuses himself from the table.
BB: Calls \$170.
Hero: Calls \$170.
Pot to the turn: \$730
BU: Declares all-in before river card is dealt. Yes, apparently this room allows that.
Turn Thoughts: We knew Villain's tendencies and everything has gone according to plan. Once you take all the flush-draws and straights and sets and two-pair and better one-pair combos out of his 100% range, we've got him absolutely crushed. Life is sweet.
River As
BB: Looks meaningfully into Hero's eyes. Hero knows that look. Villain 2 goes all-in.
Hero: Calls all-in.
Results: Button turns over JhTh for a busted gutshot with third-pair, good kicker. BB turns over—you guessed it—Qh2s.
BB and Hero split a huge pot. You add it up; I'm busy.
Aftermath: MP is found pantless and in the bathroom, in a state the brush found the delicacy to describe as “confused.” MP's great-grandson comes to pick him up and has his Buick towed.
As if in a trance, BB and Hero stand up and the rest of the room seems to disappear. Hero seizes BB bodily and [redacted].
[Editor's note: Sorry, folks, we have to keep it PG-13 for the hundreds of millions of American kids who are stealing their parents' credits cards and using them to play online PLO. Don't want to corrupt the youth, y'know. Buy the book to get the uncensored version!]
Until next time, take good care of your dealers and tip them a buck or two when you drag a pot. Of course, it's perfectly acceptable to demand a dollar from the dealer when you lose. Try it the next time you're at the table; it works!
Good night, poker!

##### Worst live session of my life yesterday, wondering whether I was playing like a donk in these hands?

These hands were at my uni's poker club. We'd raised the blinds for this session, so people are playing a little outside of their comfort zones. Overall I finished down 550bb, my worst and most tilting session in my life. I'm trying to figure out whether this was due to bad play or just bad luck.
Hand 1:
I had recently had a couple of bad beats, so was still steaming a little with a relatively short stack (~100bb). I imagine some of the table have picked up on this, but not all of them.
UTG Limps
UTG+1 Raises to 5bb
Folds to SB who calls, hero (dealt 3c3d in the bb) and UTG+1 call
Flop is 8d 4s 3h
SB raises to 15bb, hero and UTG call, UTG+1 rasies to 35bb, SB folds, hero shoves for 60bb on top, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds.
SB is a decent player who loves to squeeze and push people off dry boards. UTG is an average player who is usually a bit of a nit. UTG+1 is a new player, playing very tight and generally very passive. My main issue here is; while these opponents arn't great, they all calculate pot odds and would never call with a gut shot or runner runner, meaning the only hand I'm ahead of which is calling is 84o. I'm therefore losing value, but a flat call just seems silly given my stack size and the number of opponents.
Hand 2:
Hero is MP and is dealt KsJs, and raises to 5bb.
Folds round to CO who raises to 20bb.
Folds to hero who tanks a while, then flats.
Flop is Jc7c4c.
Hero checks, CO bets 30bb, hero tanks again then calls.
Turn is a blank, hero checks, CO checks.
River is 2c. Hero checks, CO shoves for 100bb. Hero?
The reason this hand was difficult for me is villain is a decent tricky player who loves to level people constantly. He's also pretty aggro and steals quite frequently and I think he feels he can outplay me easily, This was my reason for the call PF. I played the flop and turn passively as an attempt at pot control, as he could easily have me dominated, but I have a decent amount of showdown value.
Hand 3:
Hero is CO and is dealt AsAd. Folds round to HJ who raises to 4bb, hero raises to 15bb, SB and BB fold and HJ flats.
Flop is 4s5s8s. HJ checks, hero bets 30bb, HJ calls.
Turn is 8h. HJ checks, hero bets to 50bb, HJ shoves for 160bb on top. Hero?
Villain in this hand is a complete maniac. He raises around 75% of his PF hands, and is very aggro post flop. In the last 3 times I've played with him he's been up a huge amount though. He's not a complete fish, as he can lay down big hands when he needs to, but I'm still confused how he can play the way he does profitably. My image is still a bit steaming from previous hands.
EDIT:
Results were:
H1 UTG shows 88 and scoops the pot. I realize now this is just a cooler and unavoidable.
H2 I fold and show. He shows 10d8d and says he put me on QQ and was trying to push me off the queen high flush. Since reading this thread I realize I should be folding pre most of the time though.
H3 I tank then call. Villain shows 10s8d and I go home. Still not sure what to think about this player. Also, fun fact; we ran it 3 time and I missed them all.

Ok, so this is a meta hand analysis. I'd like to get some feedback on walking through self analysis of played hands.
Let's take a hand I just had recently played.I'd like to analyze the pre-flop and flop play (EV, odds).
So the question is the following. In analyzing this a hand, I'd like to reasonably calculate how often the villain is calling my bet with "air" OTF. Air defined as a non nuts type of hand. But not necessarily simply a high card. (e.g. a pocket pair that didn't connect with the flop, or a flop pair that isn't the top, etc etc).
Currently, what I'm doing is launching PokerCruncher, setting up HU (2 players only), setting myself to QQ, flop as indicated, and then I simply use the percentile slider to add his range and calculate my equity given the situation. I repeat this with various percentiles and then inform myself on whether I made the right move or not.
So examples would be:
• @7.4% opening range, it's a coin toss
• @20% I have 60% equity
Is this method of going about correct or should I be hand picking his range instead?

##### Okay way to play? "Sixth sense" vs. By the books.

I've been playing poker since I was twenty one, I actually sat down at the casino in Vegas at midnight on my 21st birthday, I'm 27 now.
I studied a little, but really just went in with a vague understanding of the basics... raise good hands, don't chase, play tight and aggressive, that type of thing.
I had ups and downs, but over the long run of playing for years I probably slowly lost around 2 or 3 grand, which isn't bad for the amount that I played and I had a lot of fun.
Anyway, I hadn't played for a while, and recently I started playing cash games in LA and Vegas again, probably sitting down 2 or 3 times a week. I haven't done any research into anything technical to improve my game, but somehow I just seem to know things now, it's weird. Suddenly, I'm absolutely crushing these games. I haven't walked out less than \$100-200 up since I can remember (mostly \$40 buy in NL at Commerce Casino). Since I started going in it's literally like visiting the bank, and this has been for about the last 25 or 30 sessions. I've already started making much more than I ever lost when I was younger.
Anyone have any idea whats going on? Is the only way to win consistently playing by the books? Or can you just develop a sort of sixth sense with enough table experience?
EDIT: I've gotten some fantastic feedback from this so thank you so much. It seems to be a toss up between a typical heater, or the theory that my intuition has simply adapted to exploit very bad play at these lower games. Everyone seems to agree that I need a bigger sample group to actually know, so I plan on coming back in a few months and updating everyone.
EDIT EDIT: It also sounds like I might have been describing this wrong, I'm not just playing on a "feeling from my gut", I'm not superstitious in any way and play very logically. To quote an answer below:
"When I say I 'just know', it's based on hundreds of little things, the way they played they bet pre-flop, the look they gave when the flop came, the way they played the earlier hands that even the size of the pot. The only thing that I'm NOT doing, is any sort of literal mathematic calculations. I think 'In general, those odds are good.' or 'He's been doing that a lot, and he's been bluffing.' It's just more of a free flowing logic based on a huge number of factors."

##### Tight spot in huge hand - Are my outs / pot odds right to call?

Bodog \$0.02/\$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1521238 The Reddit Poker Converter - Poker Videos by DeucesCracked
BB: \$3.66 [52/5/27, 71 hands] UTG: \$1.50 MP: \$5.54 CO: \$4.85 BTN: \$4.63 [27/19/56, 213 hands] Hero (SB): \$6.25 [24/20/61, 715 hands]
Pre Flop: (\$0.07) Hero is SB with J T 3 folds, BTN raises to \$0.15, Hero calls \$0.13, BB raises to \$0.30, BTN calls \$0.15, Hero calls \$0.15
Flop: (\$0.90) 9 4 Q (3 players) Hero bets \$0.60, BB raises to \$3.36 all in, BTN raises to \$4.33 all in, Hero ??????????
[see results here: results]
So I know the first call preflop was loose and the second call I'll justify as being pot committed and getting 6x on my money, plus being last to act I could always c/f the flop and not be upset. I'll even further justify it as saying that it was nearing the end of my session and I was okay with losing 3-6 BB on JTo just to see what happens.
So anyway, flop brings me an open-ender. I figured I would hijack the action [good idea or bad idea?] and lead out 2/3rds pot to see if I can get one of them to fold, and barrel the turn if an undercard comes. The rest is above.
I figure they might have AQ or KQ. Possibly Q9s but it wouldn't be hearts. I didn't immediately think AA/KK due to the smallish action preflop.
So how are my pot odds? My odds calculator shows with 8 outs I can call up to \$4.22, but this doesn't count the fact that they might be holding my outs or making my outs no good. Having 7 outs I can call max \$3.55 and 6 outs \$2.93.
So I guess my main question is: How important is it to figure in that your opponent(s) might be holding the cards you're counting on as outs?
Edit: Kind of bummed that this is downvoted, I'm simply trying to encourage discussion combining Reddit and Poker. I'd discuss it on 2+2 but I hate "standard" forums and I just get the feeling they'd be snobs over there.
Also, you guys are hella good at reading this play.

##### WSOPc Choctaw Trip Report

Just got back from the WSOPc at Choctaw. I had a great time and I was very satisfied with my performance.
Here's a day by day breakdown:

## Wednesday, Jan 7th (Cash)

Checked in at hotel then hit the cash tables... Profit \$133 and head back to get a good nights rest for Ring Event #1 (Megastack).

## Thursday, Jan 8th (Event 1)

Registered for Event 1 at around 1159 (start time was 1200)... Was assigned to overflow room.. Played solid poker, had great reads on all villains... The most significant spot of the tourney was when I 3 bet shoved a tight older player 1200/2400 lvl with my AKo and his TT held... We both had ~25k so I feel this was the right move... At the end of that hand, I had just enough to post the ante but only 100 to post as the SB... Aggro middle aged man (AMAM) with deep stack open raised from button with T7o and my ATo held. I eventually turned that into 10k but went super card dead afterward (94, 53 etc)... There was one spot that I probably should have overshoved with JTo even though shoving villain had KJs... Another villain called the all in and I would have hit a straight... That spot still has me thinking a bit...
We get to lvl 1500/3000 w/500 ante and I'm down to 2500... AMAM limps... I look down at K2s and shove... Another villain limps and the flop comes out Kxx I think to myself: "Yessss!" AMAM throws out a bet to get the second villain out of the pot... We flip and he has AA... GG... I bust out around 220/989 (99 cashed)...
I immediately register for the mega satty for Event 3 (10 min blind shovefest donkament) and end up going AIPF with AQs on my fifth hand there... Villain calls with 77 and its showers for the hero... I take a break from cash that night to get my mind right...

## Friday, Jan 9th (Nightly and cash)

I spend the day with my wife and baby and take them shopping around Durant... My first poker action of the night starts with the nightly \$100 + \$25 donkament... At the 100/200 level I have about 2700... Aggro villain open raises about 2.5 times... Calling station flats... I look down at KQs and 3 bet shove... Aggro villain folds and calling station calls pretty quickly with 98o... He hits an 8 and I'm outty...
I played cash at a super fishy table that night, but wasn't able to get in on the action...

## Saturday, Jan 10th (Event 3)

I wake up a little early, meditate, get a good workout in, shower, and eat a healthy breakfast... Many pros say to do that routine and it really works wonders! I felt great and full of energy all day long! I had to be a backpack kid that day because there was no dinner break... My first table was very tough and had at least 2 pros. I picked the right spots and had a decent stack when my table broke. My next table was amazing for me. A lot of limpers and for the most part, all of them respected by bets and raises... At one point I have to shove AIPF with AJs... Solid villain calls with AKo... Board runs out 522 I say "5" and lo and behold the 5 comes for a chopped pot. The hero lives! Before the third break I shove with KQs and tight British lady tanks for like 3 minutes but eventually folds her AQo... I had about 20K at the 1200/2400 lvl and older guy in LP open limps... I limp as well with 95o and BB checks... Board comes out 972... I check and both villains check as well... turn is a 5 and I lead out for a little more than the minimum... BB calls and LP folds... river is a 4... I bet slightly more than my turn bet and villain calls... I bag up for day 2 with 32k... I skip cash games for the night to spend time with my family...

## Sunday (Day 2 of Event 3 and Event 5)

The first thing I do is research my day 2 table draw... Two old man coffees with WSOPc rings a couple other OMCs with a few cashes and a young grinder with some recent cashes... The two players to my left didn't have a Hendon Mob but the sheet said that the villain two to my left was 2nd in chips with 300K... That would definitely be an obstacle in my plan to exploit the villain to my immediate left who had 27k...
Day two started a little later than originally scheduled and the director announced that with 4k+ entrants, this was the biggest WSOPc event of all time... Around 480 players were left and 427 cashed... The "big stack" of 300k really wasn't a big stack... He had about 30k as well, he just fat fingered it when he bagged... About 10 hands in, I had to shove AKo AIPF and ran into TT and QQ... I turned a K and got up to around 48.5k... After that, there were 431 players left... We went "round for round" (each table had to do one orbit) and the director told everyone to stay in their seats so they could freely move around the room to calculate who would bubble... After the orbit the bubble burst and it was game time! The WSOP blog actually featured one of my tweets, lol...
About 4 hands after the bubble I look down at AA... I raise to 12k... The 300K villain who was really a 30k villain shoved his 25k or so... One OMC calls... Board is 823 rainbow... OMC checks, I shove... He tanks and folds... Other villain shows KQo and I knock him out... At this point I have about 70k... I play a couple hands and get outflopped bringing my stack to around 50K at the 4000/8000 500 ante level... I look down at A8o and open shove from MP... Tightest player on the table (who hasn't played a single pot since the start of day) goes all in as well with about 35K... Everyone else folds... He tables ATo I say "Split pot?" and he says, "Sure". I don't improve and I'm crippled to about 15K...
A few hands later I look down at KTs and insta-open shove... The OMC who I took a side pot from earlier tanks for 30 seconds and says, "Ok, I guess I'll call" as he shows AA (WTF mate...)... I don't improve and I'm outty for a min cash... GG Fo... Looking back on things, maybe I should have waited for a better spot instead of shoving A8o (or was it just unfortunate timing?)... I was just trying to capitalize on my tight image... The good news is that it was a cash in the biggest WSOPc event of all time (4k runners). I head home and "celebrate" at Chili's with my wife and kid.
I felt pretty confident so I registered for Event 5 which started at 5pm... My boy Danny was there and he was super tilted from freshly busting from Event 4 (Ring Event Turboment) and was super spewy... I texted him to "slow down" because we swapped percentages lol... Other than that, the table was pretty boring except an OMC that I met nicknamed "Catman" (He takes care of young lions/tigers) . The table broke and I headed to a more entertaining one. To my right was a rocket scientist who worked at Johnson Space Center and to my left was a male nurse and "AC Boss" Dennis, one of the most entertaining players I've ever sat next to. He told some Walter White-esque stories about his heyday in the 60s and 70s... During my first few hands at the table I won huge pots with AQ, KJ, and AA in that order... I won a decent stack from ring-winner, Tim West as well with my AKo... I check raised him on a turn with a K high board... That felt pretty good, lol... I got to the first break with 23k from a starting stack of 10k and was feeling on top of the world! At around the 400/800 level Catman joins our table and 2.5x opens... Rocket scientist goes all in for 12K and I iso shove all in with QQ for about 20K... Catman folds his AKo face up and rocket scientist tables AKo... He turns a K and I'm down to 8k... At the 500/1000 level random villain opens to 3.5K... I have about 10K and 3 bet shove with AKo... He tanks for a bit and calls with 33... I don't hit and I'm outty... Gotta win your flips...
I play some cash later that night at a dream table... Super limpy and super loose... Including a Vietnamese dude who had a wad of 100s and kept rebuying every 5 hands or so... I end up profiting \$400 and head out...

## Monday (Time to leave... Or is it?)

We were supposed to check out but I convinced the wifey to let me play Event 6 (six max)... She says ok and I register about 30 minutes into it... My first table wasn't very noteworthy and it broke pretty quickly... The second table included a big stack OMC and businessman to my left... and a circuit grinder, loose truck driver type, and nit reg to my right... The strangest hand occurred at the 100/200 level... Truck driver shoves all in with about 2.7k... I have TT and 7.5k and for some odd reason I just say "call" instead of iso shoving all in... This actually ended up being a good thing because big stack OMC iso shoved and his AA held up against truck drivers AKo... At this point, I have about 5K and open limp a blind vs blind spot against OMC with 73o (because six max right?)... Board is 763... YESSSS!!! I bet 500 on the flop, OMC calls, turn is an A... I bet 750 on turn... river is a T... I check... OMC bets about 2k... I call and before I can even say "Is my two pair good?" he flips his set of 6s... I probably should have folded that one pre... Shortly after that, our table broke...
My new table was super serious... At this point I have about 2.5K left at the 100/200 25 ante lvl... Lady limps from MP and I look down at KQs and think "Hell yeah, time to shove!" I go all in, she thinks about it for 10 seconds and calls with AQ... I don't improve and it's showers for the hero...
I finish my Choctaw trip with two cash sessions and leave with a profit of \$268... When I checked out the following morning, the hotel manager said, "Thank you for your business" and I reply with "You're welcome. See you next year."
"You're not coming back for WPT in July? It will be bigger than this one."
We shall see...

##### Top set facing AI raise on single suit flop - Mathematics and Thought Analysis

Poker Stars \$50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1927301 The Reddit Poker Converter - Poker Videos by DeucesCracked
MP1: \$52.91 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 22, 3B: 6, AF: 4.4, Hands: 175 MP2: \$66.96 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 3.7, Hands: 779 CO: \$47.50 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 9, 3B: 4, AF: 4.5, Hands: 398 BTN: \$50.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 3.0, Hands: 1572 SB: \$106.85 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 8, 3B: 4, AF: 2.1, Hands: 62 BB: \$49.00 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 8, 3B: 1, AF: 1.6, Hands: 384 Hero (UTG): \$63.76 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 9, 3B: 1, AF: 2.7, Hands: 65026 UTG+1: \$50.00 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 4.7, Hands: 2037
Pre Flop: (\$0.75) Hero is UTG with K K Hero raises to \$1.50, 4 folds, BTN calls \$1.50, SB raises to \$3, 1 fold, Hero calls \$1.50, BTN calls \$1.50
Flop: (\$9.50) 2 K 6 (3 players) SB bets \$3.00, Hero raises to \$10.75, BTN raises to \$47, SB folds.
Looking back I should have RR pf, not sure why I did not.
The BTN shove screams flush. Likely low, suited cards, but it could be the nut flush. This gives me 70.25:36.25 odds or 1.938:1 and I probably have 33-34% equity against a flush.
I could also see the BTN shoving with 66 or 22 to protect his hands from any flush draws.
To calculate a call/fold should I just take the total hand combos and apply it to expected value?
(Assuming no two pair combos) 66: 6 combos 22: 6 combos 2 clubs: 72 combos
Has flush 72/84 times
EV: Flush: +70.25(0.34) - 36.25(0.66) = -0.04 *(72/84) = -0.0343 Set: = +70.25(0.934) - 36.25(.066) = 63.221 * (12/84) = 9.0316 Total = 8.98
Is this analysis correct? Even with the high probability of the flush the small chance the BTN has a set I should call? Is there anything else I should take into account?

##### How I played AA - an examination of thought.

Playing a ring/cash game at microstakes .01/.02. I'm in late position but not the button; I'm dealt AA.
Believe it or not, my thought processes on this hand were: "Oh shit. This hand is going to get me into so much trouble..."
I see the players come around to me. Five people limp in.
Now, I don't know why I did this - normally, if I play a hand, I raise it from preflop. Not a lot, usually 2-3x the BB, depending on position, but for some reason, I'm thinking: Hold on. Before I give away information like that, let me try to blend into the woodwork.
So I limp in too. I wasn't trying to trap anybody, really, but truth is, I didn't know whether to call or fold.
Play comes around to the people to my left, and they limp in too, and I'm thinking: oh, crap. I'm gonna have a nine-way pot with my AA. Someone's gonna have me beat here unless I flop an A... I shoulda raised.
Then it gets to the BB.
He doesn't check. In fact, he raises to 11x the BB.
That would normally be intimidating, but when you think about it - there were 8 limpers before him. So, that's 3x the big blind + a BB for each limper. A strong move, but if I had a decent, playable hand, it's what I'd do.
I'm lucky - everyone to my right folds, I call, everyone to my left folds to the BB. We're seeing a flop.
The flop comes 7 T 3
BB raises the pot.
Okay, yes, I have aces, but my opponent just made a strong move. Ultimately, aces is "just another overpair."
And I think to myself - what could I lose to here, that he would bet on? (assuming it's not a stone-cold bluff.)
Well, he could have a spade flush draw. There are a lot of hands with a spade flush draw, but even so, at this stage, he's only got 7 outs for that, which means I win 70% of the time. I don't want him to see a flop, though - I have no outs if he hits his flush.
He could have an open-ended or gutshot straight draw... something like 89, 45, or 56. Likely suited if he's playing those cards. Open ended he's got 8 outs, gutshot, he's got 4 outs. Open ended's the worst case scenario, in which case I win 68% of the time.
He could have 54 or 9 8 That's a tricky one. I don't know if he would have raised with that preflop, but it's entirely possible. 54 gives him 11 outs - (two of them are straight flushes - a slight underdog,)... and 9 8 gives him 13 outs - a coinflip - 50/50.
Then, he could have me beat - there are two hands which absolutely, positively have me beat here, and that's 77 and TT. I doubt he would have played 33 so aggressively, but... then again, that's also a possibility.
Now, here are the hands that beat me that I don't think he has: I don't think he has two pair (that is, T7, T3, or 73. ) I wouldn't raise with those hands before seeing a flop, would you?
And here are some hands he could have - and that he could raise with - that I know I've got beat: T9, JT, QT, KT, AT, A3, A7, K7 (think he would have thrown away K3) 88, 99, JJ, QQ, KK.
I'm sure I could have calculated pot odds vs all the outs if I had time - but this is online and there's a little timer there, that puts pressure on me. My gut was telling me that there were only 3 hands that had me beat, that there was only one hand that was a coin flip, and that I'd beat him if he was on any other draw 70% of the time... I considered my chances good, but not undefeatable.
There's also the fact that this guy may just be bluffing. Okay, yes, not very likely, but he -was- the first to raise pre-flop, and I didn't show any aggression pre-flop at all. This could just be a continuation bet, cause if I don't have anything, he could scoop up the pot with nothing. It's what I would do if I was bluffing.
Calling is the wrong move here, I think. It doesn't give me any information, there's two more cards he could hit (and he could be on a draw.) It hides the strength of my hand, but then again, how strong are AA in this situation?
So, I re-raise. If he's on any draw but the straight-flush draw, I think he'll fold. If he's got anything less than a set, I think he'll fold.
He doesn't fold. He goes all-in.
Uh oh.
This eliminates a lot of possibilities for me. I don't think he's got a draw now - unless it's 45 spades. I still don't think he has two pair. I also don't think he has 88 or 99.
So what does he have? Here's the possibilities:
Ties: 98 (Straight Draw & Flush Draw) Slight underdog: 54, (Gut SF-draw) Beats me: 33 (set), 77(set), TT (set) Beaten: QQ (overpair), KK (overpair), AT (TPTK), KT (TP2ndK), TJ (TP), TQ (TP).
So, what's likely here? Forgetting for a moment that he went all-in, he would have had to have caught 2 out of the 3 3s in the deck for 33, 2 of the 3 7s in the deck for 77, and 2 of the 3 Ts in the deck for TT. So they're very unlikely cards, statsitically.
98 and 54 are very, very rare - he'd have to catch both cards exactly.
QQ, KK are also rare, but slightly more likely. AT, KT, TJ, TQ, these are very common possibilities - a lot of ways to make that in the deck.
Maybe I should have folded. I wouldn't personally have gone all-in on TPTK, hell, I don't think I would have gone all-in first unless I had at least a set - likely at least middle set. Then again, these are microstakes - there are a lot of loose players.
There's the other question: What does he -think- I have?
Well, I limped in on the pre-flop, then called him. No aggression. Like an amateur. (well, I am an amateur, but I'm working on it...) Post flop, he raises, I re-raise. Again, like an amateur. If I had something big, I might have wanted to hide that to call post-flop. Maybe he thinks he can get me to fold by going all-in.
And what does he -think- I think he has?
He's represented a set well. But maybe he doesn't have a set. Because if he had a set, wouldn't he have called, hidden his set, and gotten me to go all-in then?
Poker Discipline tells me to fold. My gut tells me to call.
I call.
Edit: Mouseover for results

##### [Line Check]5NL full ring, BB.

PokerStars - \$0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (BB): 100 BB UTG: 104.2 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4) UTG+1: 146 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2) MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2) MP+1: 122.8 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2) MP+2: 97.2 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4) CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2) BTN: 168.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2) SB: 87.6 BB (VPIP: 12.57, PFR: 8.19, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 350)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 5s Ks fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB
Flop : (6.4 BB, 3 players) Qs 8c Ts Hero bets 4 BB, UTG+1 raises to 18.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 14.2 BB
Turn : (42.8 BB, 2 players) 3s Hero bets 30 BB, UTG+1 calls 30 BB
River : (102.8 BB, 2 players) Qd Hero bets 49.8 BB and is all-in
Own thoughts: Preflop: Don't have a read on UTG+1 but has played one of his first two hands already. A minraise is a bit weird. CO calls as well, also 50vpip in 2 hands. A lot will say to fold preflop because K5s is bad, esp OOP and I won't disagree. Had to call 1BB to win 5.50BB so I made the call.
Flop: Flopped a draw to the second nuts, want to build the pot a bit so I can try to get it in when I make the flush. I get raised bigtime by UTG+1, CO folds. The reraise size tells me he has either hit the Q or has an overpair and wants draws out. I have a KK so AQ or AA make most sense. Put him on AA here because of the minraise pre. Microplayers tend to do this to get a light 3-bet and then 4-bet or trap. Might also have A of spades but not sure yet. I can also see a minraise pre with J9s and similar hands but 3x'ing would be more common. I have to call 14.2BB to win 28.6. I plan to c/f when the turn bricks so I calculate 8-9 outs so about 17-20% at least. There could be reverse implied odds but I don't see villain minraising with AJ of spades. Pot will be 42.8 postflop and I want another 40BB-60BB if I make my hand, depending on my judgement on how often I get paid when the flush comes in. Now because of the raise size by UTG+1 I assume he'll figure he chased away the draws and I don't have a flush when it comes, little does he know!
Turn: The card I wanted. I decide to lead out for 3/4th of the pot, could've done it a bit higher and might've been better to go 35BB into 42.8 instead of 30. Could I have checkraised? Yes but I think Villain checks behind too often and I won't be able to get it in. AQ, overpair and sometimes even a straight checks behind here. On top of that, that card is a great bluff card and Villain might put me on a bluff because of this. Villain calls, woop!
River: Board pairs but not going to let that scare me. My flop call is bad if I just check here and give Villain free showdown. Overpairs probably fold here, AQ and flopped straights call, full house is crying time! I shove the remaining 49.8BB in the center in a pot of 102.8BB.
So outside of the preflop call, any criticism on the line taken and my thought proces?