Dolphins vs Jets Predictions, Picks, Odds, Preview - Week

Will the Dallas Cowboys win OVER/UNDER 9.5 games? By University Stats Prof!

1. Introduction

It was a strange year for America’s team.

They started with three easy wins over weak opponents, only to end up missing the playoffs with an 8-8 record.

I call it a strange season because if you look at their best offensive players’ statistics, they all did very well! The team scored the 6th most points in the league, while their defense allowed the 11th fewer points. How in the heck did they miss the playoffs?

In their eight wins, the average margin of victory was 20.1 points. In their eight losses, the average margin of defeat was 6.0 points. Indeed, the Cowboys lost six games by one possession or less (i.e. 8 points or less).

One more reason for missing the playoffs: Jason Garrett’s decisions. He made multiple questionable calls and it ended up costing him his job.

The former 13-year Packers head coach, Mike McCarthy, is the new sheriff in town. We’ll see what he can do with this talented group.

2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)

Dak Prescott has been a very steady force since coming into the league. He hasn’t missed a game in four seasons and has thrown 97 TD passes versus 36 interceptions. He has also rushed for 21 touchdowns.

Last year, he topped his career-high in passing yards by more than 1,000 yards! He had another solid season and was graded as the tenth-best QB by PFF.

I thought signing Andy Dalton after the Bengals released him was a very smart move by the Cowboys. Dallas has invested so heavily on its offense; you don’t want to take the risk of this group stalling because of an injury to Prescott. Cooper Rush wasn’t going to be the answer.

If Dak goes down, Dalton can fill in immediately and provide good play. Sure, he had a down year in 2019. In his defense, the offensive line struggled a lot and his top weapon, A.J. Green, missed the entire season. I do not believe the Dallas offense would crash down with Dalton under center.

2.2 Running Backs (RBs)

Ezekiel Elliott has also been a steady performer for the Cowboys over the recent years. He regularly accumulates between 1,700 and 2,000 total yards, while scoring between 9 and 16 TDs every year.

Tony Pollard got some playing time in blowouts as a rookie. Chosen in the 4th round out of Memphis, he has shown great promise. He ranked extremely well in yards after contact and finished with close to 500 rushing yards despite limited action. If something were to happen to Elliott, he seems ready to shine in a big way.

2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)

Here is one more position where the starters are returning.

After struggling down the stretch, Amari Cooper seemed like he might leave Dallas in free agency. However, the Cowboys re-signed him to a fat contract.

In the first nine games, he averaged 5.9 receptions and 94 receiving yards per game, while totaling seven TDs. In the final seven matches, he averaged 3.7 receptions and 49 receiving yards, while hauling in a single TD pass.

The fact that he played much better at home than on the road was also well-documented. There are rumors that he played the last two months despite knee and ankle injuries, though.

Hats off to Michael Gallup for largely exceeding the 2019 expectations. He doubled his production in terms of receptions and receiving yards compared to his rookie season, while tripling the number of touchdowns (from 2 to 6). PFF gave him the 34th rank out of 122 wideouts, which is awesome for a second-year pro who was drafted in the third round.

Randall Cobb signed with Houston, which leaves 55 receptions and more than 800 yards on the table. He was one of the best #3 WR in the league for sure.

Tavon Austin seems unlikely to assume the role, but #17 overall pick CeeDee Lamb might. This selection will give OC Kellen Moore some nice flexibility. Indeed, Lamb can line up either inside or outside. Moore will then have the possibility to slide Cooper into the slot, where he won’t face press coverage that has given him some trouble.

Lamb is a physical receiver who breaks tackles very often. He posted some jaw-dropping numbers at Oklahoma:

The Cowboys are in business with Cooper-Gallup-Lamb.

2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)

Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin provided a pretty good TE duo. Witten, who caught 63 passes last year, left for Las Vegas. That gives a big opportunity to Jarwin to improve upon his 31 receptions from 2019. As a matter of fact, he signed a three-year, $24.25 million contract extension. That tells me he is the clear number one guy!

Dallas acquired Blake Bell who played for the Super Bowl champions K.C. Chiefs. He is mostly used as a blocker and will complement Jarwin nicely.

2.5 Offensive Line (OL)

The Cowboys offensive line performed admirably well in 2019. Dallas attempted the 10th most passes in the league, and yet only allowed 23 sacks, the second fewest in the NFL! Sure, Prescott is hard to bring down, but that’s still very impressive.

The PFF rankings are staggering: tackles La’el Collins and Tyron Smith finished at the #5 and #16 spots out of 81 qualifiers. Guards Zack Martin and Connor Williams ranked 3rd and 43rd out of 81 players. Finally, center Travis Frederick ended the year as a slightly above-average guy.

All of them are returning, except Frederick who surprised everyone by announcing his retirement at age 29. He has made the Pro Bowl on five occasions. Joe Looney is penciled in at center for the time bein. He started all 16 games in 2018 and got pretty bad marks from PFF that year.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

Prescott, Elliott, Cooper and Gallup are all back in the Cowboys’ lineup, and they are all pretty young. It bodes well for 2020.

However, the team took some small hits by losing Randall Cobb and Jason Witten (albeit rookie CeeDee Lamb has a shot to pick up the slack). The bigger loss was the retirement of center Travis Frederick. He will be difficult to replace.

Adding Andy Dalton as the backup QB provides a great insurance policy in case Prescott gets hurt.

For these reasons, I envision a 2020 season where the offense does a similar job as 2019.

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable

3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)

Maliek Collins graded as an average interior defender and he is gone to the sin city. Christian Covington played close to 50% of the snaps and was used a rotational lineman. He did okay, but nothing spectacular. He is also off the team.

The Cowboys vastly improved the position by acquiring a couple of guys from Carolina: Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe.

McCoy is riding an eight-year streak with at least five sacks. He turned 32 years old, but still graded as the number 30 DL out of 114.

Meanwhile, Poe finished just two spots below McCoy in PFF’s rankings. Like McCoy, he is a pretty effective run stuffer.

Those acquisitions will solidify the line tremendously. They are great gets.

The team added depth via the draft by selecting Neville Gallimore. He is pretty fast for an interior lineman, which suits him well for tracking down running backs or scrambling QBs. However, his college production was unimpressive and he offers a lower ceiling considering he’s an older rookie. He’s projected to be a rotational player in the NFL.

3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)

This position brings a few question marks.

Demarcus Lawrence had a subpar year with 5 sacks. He had 10.5 and 14.5 the two previous years. However, he is a complete player and still finished at the #13 spot in PFF rankings among edge rushers. I am not worried about him, he should bounce back in 2020.

The problem stems from the fact that three guys left the team. First, Robert Quinn will leave big shoes to fill. He racked up 11.5 sacks last year and has averaged 8.9 throughout his nine-year career.

Michael Bennett seems unlikely to come back. He has said he would like to finish his career in Seattle. He recorded 4 sacks in 9 games, which isn’t bad at all.

Finally, Dallas lost some depth when Kerry Hyder signed with the 49ers. Surprisingly, he finished 51st ouf of 107 edge rushers according to PFF.

3.3 Linebackers (LBs)

The Cowboys are set at linebacker. The whole group is back, especially Vander Esch who missed half the season because of an injury. His PFF grade dropped from 85.4 as a rookie to 58.6 as a sophomore. Hopefully, the neck issue won’t be a recurring injury.

Jaylon Smith had an exceptional season and came close from finishing in the top 10 among NFL linebackers based on PFF grades. He had the sixth-most tackles in the league with 142. He is still young and the former Fighting Irish has a bright future ahead of him.

Veteran Sean Lee is back for another season in Dallas! Strangely enough, 2019 was the first time in his career where he managed to play the whole season. He saw more action than anticipated because of Vander Esch’s injury and he filled in well. Still, we’re talking about a 34-year old guy that has struggled to stay healthy for his entire career.

3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)

Chidobe Awuzie brings a lot of stability at this position. He’s a pretty reliable corner.

Losing Byron Jones opposite of Awuzie will clearly hurt the team, though. He received nice marks from PFF and landed the most lucrative contract among all cornerbacks in the NFL from the Dolphins.

The team signed Maurice Canady. He doesn’t seem to be the answer since he played five games with the Ravens before being waived, and then signed by the Jets a few weeks later.

Next up we have Jourdan Lewis, who is more of a slot prospect. As for Anthony Brown, he lost starting slot duties before getting hurt. He still got rewarded with a $15.5 million contract for three years.

Therefore, as of now it seems unclear who will play opposite of Awuzie as the number 2 corner. Another potential candidate is second-round rookie Trevon Diggs. He allowed a low 42% completion rate in coverage last season with Alabama.

Diggs is a former receiver, so he has a good feel for what his opponent will do. He has a rare combo of size and strength, but his main weakness remains a tendency to grab and hold receivers who get past him (he hits the panic button too often).

3.5 Safeties (S)

Xavier Woods enjoyed a third pretty solid season. The sixth-round pick from the 2017 draft turned out to be a very nice late pick for the Cowboys.

Dallas lost its other starting safety to free agency, as Jeff Heath chose to go with the Raiders. The Cowboys didn’t waste any time replacing him, as they got Ha Ha Clinton-Dix two days later. Overall, I believe that’s a bit of an upgrade. Clinton-Dix is a year and a half younger, and he’s a better player, even more so against the run. Also, he hasn’t missed a single game during his six-year career!

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

A big upgrade is likely to occur on the interior of the line with the additions of Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe. The safety situation was slightly improved by replacing Heath with Clinton-Dix.

However, losing their best corner Byron Jones, as well as edge rushers Robert Quinn and Michael Bennett will have a big impact for sure.

I was torn between calling it a “small” or “moderate” downgrade when comparing the 2019 to 2020 unit. I decided to go with a small one. The team allowed the 11th fewest points in the league, and I expect them to finish in the 13-17 range for the upcoming season.

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade

4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Dallas Cowboys are expected to win 9.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?

I'll answer this question via two different methods.

4.1 Professor MJ's Prediction

I won't go into the mathematical details, but here is a summary of my own personal pick (based on my analysis above and my estimated spreads for the Cowboys' 16 games):



Tip: Bet OVER 9.5 wins

4.2 Based on BetOnline's Point Spreads

Here is the methodology I used here:

Here are the results:



Tip: Bet UNDER 9.5 wins

In summary, my own analysis recommends betting the OVER, while BetOnline's point spreads suggest betting the UNDER.

Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Cowboys’ 16 regular season games:

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

Tomorrow I'll preview the New York Giants (over or under 6.5 wins?)!

Professor MJ
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PRE-RAMBLE: If you don't know who I am, just skip this, honestly, you won't like it so, why bother upsetting yourself on a game day that will likely end in us being victorious. We won't have a ton of wins this year so don't bother getting confused and bummed out by my stupid shit. Just skip this.
For the rest of you!! (read: for about 9 of you)
Don’t call this a comeback!!!
The reports are in; you miss me, well 4 of you miss me and that’s enough for this week at least. And to be honest, it’s probably the last of it.
Seriously, don’t this a comeback because I’m ghosting y’all after this one.
Why did I go away? Well, I’m still here I’m not just hated, a pariah even, because I have had the audacity to say that we may not be a very good football team. I only say that because our record is 4 wins 137 losses since our last Super Bowl, I think...I’m not sure though, I counted very quickly and completely in my head without checking the internet at all. I feel like I remember winning 4 games though, right? Maybe.
We seem to live in a world where you’re either called a Nazi or a Snowflake and there is no in between and that has spread to this, and every other sub. You either love the Giants and bow down to every move they make or you’re “not a real fan.” I love this team and I absolutely hate the owner and GM. Both things are possible, don’t @ me. Tase me bro, but don't @ me.
Father Tip: (I’m a dad now so I’m very wise) If you agree with anyone 100% of the time you lack intelligence or you aren’t paying attention.
To prove how much you must drink the Kool Aid there is a current post about how evil the Bad-Man-Baby-Fondler Jerry Reese was and how Poor-Old-Mr-Nice-Man Dave Gettleman is doing his, awh-shucks, best. Here’s the truth, they can both stink. One can be slightly better than the other, or they can both be decent for what they were asked to do when they were asked to do it. It’s pretty likely that they’re both okay and neither is great. Jerry Reese was the head of pro-player scouting and did a great job of bringing in talent off the streets, whereas DG was a head scout and his drafts prove that out.
We look back at Reese drafts with the benefit (really through the shit-colored glasses) of time and we look at Gettleman drafts through the lens of “if player X improves in year Y he’ll be great!” Remember how BJ Hill was going to be an All Pro player because he had a good game against the Bears last year and now he’s lost his starting job to a player who wasn’t good enough for the god damn Jets? Yeah, well remember Reuben Randle had 71 receptions for just under 1,000 yards? We are waiting to see what BJ Hill becomes and meanwhile we remember Randle as, well, not great player. In fact, most of us pretend Randle was pure trash.
I’m not saying Gettleman is a fat, worthless, arrogant, piece of shit just like I’m not saying the Reese was some smooth talking, handsome, young black man. I’m saying they’re both GMs in their respective days who, likely, should have remained scouts. Head scouts at that, but scouts because they both have strengths and weaknesses and being GMs isn't their strengths.
I always admired on Reese looked cool while making bad decisions. Thought that was fun, I wish Dave Gettleman didn’t look like an assistant, overnight manager at Duane Reade who doesn’t quite understand how pants fit.
Anyway, this is why I’m not around. I’m not around, insofar as doing these write ups, because of the decline from spirited conversation toward dogmatic hero worship. Also, John Mara is a dickless turtle who should get fucked in his ear until his brain starts making better decisions about his billion dollar product.
Also, this post is in response to a “what happened to him” post. Many of you have come to this sub after I stopped posting these so, for you, just know that I’m just some old fuck waving his cane at the internet. If anything these posts started as well crafted scouting reports with lots of dumb jokes and they slowly turned into drunken jokes with very few “facts” thrown in just to keep me honest (I was never honest, I’m not a reporter and nobody is fact checking me. I'm just an asshole who drinks too much.)
Anyway this is for jimhenderson novelliant hollenb1 stevo2115 elkgravey starvinart /uTheMisterIt and thatsyurblood even though he’s just here for the nintendo of it all – and especially for glaci0us who can’t get my fucking user name right.
The Giants lead the all time series 8-5. What? Seriously? 13 whole fucking games? Why do people call this a rivalry? We’re in different divisions. We’ve never played a meaningful game against each other. We share the worst stadium in the league. Seriously, I’ve been to prisons, for work, all up and down the Hudson river and the ugliest prison I saw was MetLife Stadium.
The Snoopy Bowl??? Shut. The. Fuck. Up. First of all, Snoopy didn’t ever play football, if he weren't a cartoon he'd be a god damn dog. Charlie Brown at least tried to be a kicker but that stupid asshole Violet Gray, was a worse holder than Tony Romo in the playoffs and kept ruining it for Charlie. Seriously, that little girl charged for Psychiatry? You need a license for that shit and also, you’re mean to everyone and you’re a terrible person; what makes you think you could be a therapist?! Fuck her, fuck Snoopy, fuck corporate sponsored stadiums that still ask for tax dollars to be built, and fuck that giant cement turd in the middle of a swamp that has fancy blue or green lights depending on the Sunday. Fuck sharing. Especially fuck sharing with a redneck cousin, which is essentially what the Jets are.
Hey Jets, why don’t you move to Staten Island like the trash that you are.
(Note: I have only been to Staten Island once and found it lovely. This joke was cheap and doesn’t really mean much of anything so don’t get all offended like a whiny turd.)
If anything this is a sibling rivalry, at best. That is, if your younger sibling had just barely enough geneses to be considered a human – but definitely not the right amount. Having to share a stadium with these fucking turds is like when your mom bought you a new video game and half an hour into playing it she’s all like; “Okay, TheMisterIt let’s let your brother try it too.” And it’s like; “hey bitch, did you buy it for me or for thatsyurblood? Because you go away for 8-10 hours a day to work and for those hours I don’t have a mother, so maybe you could tell that job to give you enough money to buy 2 god damn video games. Hey, why don’t you take off your pants and send them to Aunt Carol...I think she should have a turn! You’ve had them on long enough.”
Or you know, maybe you have a better relationship with your mother, what do I know?
Point is, we don’t really hate the Jets for being the Jets, if anything we should hate that our parents are too god damn cheap to move us to our own apartments. Stick the Giants in Brooklyn, or Queens, or Meadowlands on the Hudson, leave us in Northern Jersey – I don’t care, just give us our own home and put a fucking roof on it so you can make money in the winter, you stupid, too proud to be “old school” morons.
“Why would we want to sell out our stadium in February for a Billy Joel concert followed by a week of sold Taylor Swift concert, when instead we can keep a roof off of it and make it look like a computer generated stadium in Madden ‘95?” says Mara, who I remind you, is dickless.
Let’s never forget that John Shitfuck Mara is the cowardly turtle grandson of a great man who gambled and cheated his way into being a very rich man. He was a god damn gangster! Meanwhile Little Johnny is all mushy mouthed and says things like; “mmmmmmmmI don’t know….I mean…..if the fans are sad about Eli not playing maybe I should hire a GM 100% based on the idea that he still thinks Eli is cute enough to get us wins.”
That’s not the apple falling far from the tree, it’s the apple falling off the tree and crying despite the fact that it is, in fact, an apple and not a human.
And shut up...I love Eli. I would encourage my wife blow him for 17 days straight if it meant he was able to stand in the pocket over the past 4 years and deliver the football like he knows he should have. But that just wasn’t going to happen because he was “seeing ghosts.” Or no wait, he was seeing actual players who were actually destroying him because he actually had an actually terrible offensive line. Just like Danny Dimes does currently.
The difference is Eli know AARP and Danny never lived in a world where he had to yell at one of his 93 siblings to get off the phone because he wanted to look up “key words: Bewbs.” The translation to that is Eli would die if he were hit and Danny is too young to know that he's slowly dying by playing football.
Rivalry? Nope. I don’t buy it. I don’t like them because growing up they were on TV after the Giants and it put me to sleep because I grew up in the era when the Jents sucked...which is every era save for about 6 seasons sprinkled in since they became a franchise.
I used to have a father. He didn’t care about me much. We’d talk once in a while. But if I were good at anything in this world, which I am not, and found success in it, which I never will - he would come on board and support me and I have absolutely no questions about that.
Meanwhile, Saquon’s father is going to wear a fucking Jets jersey? How god damn pathetic is that?
This legit, all bullshit aside, makes me very sad for both of them. I don’t know their relationship and maybe it’s not my place to be sad for them but god damn it sounds fucking awful to have your own father at your game openly only half routing for you.
Of course Saquon is a home run hitter. Of course he’s also trying to turn a 2 yard gain into a TD, he grew up watching the Jets so from age 5 through 19 he only say 4 touchdowns scored by his favorite team. And his dad is a bigger fan of that than he is of his fully grown, other-worldly sperm.
I have a daughter and whatever she wants to do, I’ll support her. If she’s like; “Dad, I want to do porn because blowing penises is the greatest thing in the world so I’ve signed with Vivid Entertainment.” I will run out, that same day and get my Brazzers Tattoo removed. Or at least covered up.
I get that our fandom runs deep but if your a bigger fan of a jersey (that has different people wearing it every single year) than you are of the person your wife spent 2 years carrying and feeding from her body...a child who you worked your ass off to protect and love, if that jersey means more to you than that kid...I don't know man. I'm just sad as fuck for you.
(I looked up his name this morning and now I forgot it and I don’t want to spend another second thinking about him so that's why I didn't name him. I cannot stress this enough, this story breaks my heart for Saquon and Saquon is my dude so I’m now forever mad at his father on his behalf. We don’t know how much our parents have fucked us up until after they’re gone for a while and we do a lot of work on it - likely in therapy. This is definitely damaging to Saquon no matter what he says or even if he doesn’t realize it yet. His father is actively putting a sport above his family. That’s the least manly thing I’ve ever heard. It’s also the least motherly thing I’ve ever heard but in this case we aren’t talking about chicks brah. We’ll talk about chicks later )
Imagine the scene, 3 years ago, Ben RoethlisDouble!uarterPounderWithCheeseAndSexualAssault, Antonio BrownSoundAlsoWithSexualAssault, and Le’vitation Bell were all on the same team and that team still couldn’t win it all. Imagine how difficult it would be for future Inbredskin’s coach Mike Epps to hold all that together without incident or really any meaningful victories with that talented and insane crew.
(Note the Inbredskins are so fucking stupid I bet Danny Snybro would actually hire Mike Epps just because he looks like that Pittsburg bro.)
Now imagine you were the best part of that trio and you spend an entire year not playing so you could be rewarded handsomely the following year. Only to be rewarded by being sent off to the ugly step-brother of NY, in a team who hired a coach seemingly just to make Pat Shurmur look like a genius by comparison. You almost have to feel bad for Bell but then again, he’s pretty fucking rich so he's clearly winning over us mere non-sports playing assfarts.
The Jests offense is as bad as they come, literally they're worst in the league in YPG, 2nd to last in PPG at 12 fucking points per game...what?! That's so bad it sounds fake and yet, somehow, as if by magic and cancer Washington is even worse.
They have decent skill players though. Sam Darnold was set back in his progression a bit this season by a few things; firstly he had his open mouth kiss and it made his tummy hurt so he had to take some time off, secondly Adam Gase sucked Peyton Manning’s dick into a 2nd head coaching job, and thirdly he might be fat? I don’t know. He’s got the round stupid face of a much fatter human. Is that why he sucks now? Will someone please tell me if he’s fat or if his face is just an inflatable safety device. Tell me!!!
By the way I rather like the new NY Jeff’s uniforms, they’re pretty cool. It’s the best part about their team. It’s almost like they’re not a bottom 5 organization in every single possible way – but they are. “Hey we may suck forever but check out this new shade of green!!” Fuck me, I fell for it. I like it.
Jesus. That was exhausting. Almost as exhausting as it would be to pretend that I’ve watched the Jeffs play a single game this season. I used to watch the team we were going to face every weekend before we faced them. But that was when I did this scouting reports before. I didn’t know I was going to write this up until there was a post BEGGGING (read: not a single person suggested) that I do another one. Also, last week they played the Dolphins. I picked the Dolphins in a survivor pool. That’s how little I think of the Jets. And yet, I’m scared we find a way to lose this game.
Anyway, Dam Sarnold is fine, I feel bad because Adam Gase may look like 3rd act of Philadelphia Tom Hanks but he coaches like first act of Forrest Gump Tom Hanks and that’s holding Samwise Darngy he fat!? Is Sam Darnold fucking chubby or not!?
What to say about Adam Gase that has already been said by your asshole the morning after drinking 47 Bud Lights, eating a slice of pizza and then deciding that you should chase that down with an entire pizza but you’re going to cover it with hot sauce and then that hot sauce giving you a second wind so you drink 13 IPAs and think greasy ass chicken wings will really mend this bridge so you won’t fee sick the next day, and you smoke a joint a fall asleep. Then you wake up and think; “this is very much not my bed and this is very much not my home, I’ve got to get out of here.” You sit up and your head feels like a camera just pulled in tight on your face while playing a sad trombone into “Mad World” the Gary Jules version. You can barely stand, let alone sneak around. But when you get to your feet you realize, whomever’s home this is, you’re going to have to pay a visit to the toilet before! You can’t!!! So you dash out of the house, half dressed, half retarded, and half dead – look at the sun because suddenly you think you’ll have a directional sense of where your home is, knowing that has never been the case before.
You stumble a block or two and you run into your cuntiest Aunt. Aunt Carol and you say; “Oh wow, nice pants!” And she says they were your mothers but she sent them randomly one day then she says she’s so glad you could make it to the brunch.
You think; “Brunch?” not realizing you said it aloud and she says; “Yeah, for Stacy’s wedding, it’s at the diner here.” You think about how that’s definitely a breakfast and not a brunch but you look up to see the diner and theres your god damn grandmother and she looks at you like a child at a puppy on Christmas so you have to go now. So you choke a turd back up into your asshole by about 4 feet and you put on a smile. “Hi Nana,” you say because despite being nearly 80 she says “grandma” makes her “feel old.” You go in, sit down and immediately order a coffee. You take three sips and it triggers something deep inside you and you stand to go to the bathroom but your stomach only allows you half stand, half crouch, you yell something about back pain as you shuffle to the bathroom, which is more spacious than you anticipated. You run for the first stall you see, it’s gross, there’s a swastika carved in the seat and slightly more piss on the seat than there is fresh water remaining on the Earth so you rip your pants down and hover, you’re barely aimed correctly as you start to fire and quickly learn why there’s often shit up the back of the bowl.
You ruin it. The toilet will never again be the same. You feel lighter. You’ve feel like you’ve shed the memories of 6 exes. And you hear a slightly southern voice on the other side of the stall saying; “hell yeah dude, that sounds amazing, get after it!” You wipe again...fuck it, you wipe until you bleed and when you exit he’s still standing there, slowly clapping. It’s Peyton Manning. He’s the only person who appreciates Adam Gase and now you finally know why.
That toilet. That’s Adam Gase. (Imagine that were a port-a-potty instead of a diner, and you have Ben McAdoo.)
We’re similar offenses:
Oof, shall we talk about our defense here? Betcher was hired because he blitzed all the time in Arizona. Now he never blitzes. In part because why would he even bother? We can rush 11 and QBs still stand in there and have time to let the play develop. Our defensive roster is so gross that I actively spend a majority of my week drowning myself to try to induce some sort of water-logged-brain-CTE situation.
We haven’t drafted a good linebacker since I started ejaculating...I’m 40. We had a decent safety who left to get overpaid, fair. Fine. But we replaced him with CC Brown from the Browns and went and signed CC Brown from the Cardinals. I hope that Peppers ends up being a spicy player who is nothing to sneeze at but right now, he’s just a guy who is likely to be ground up in the passing game. I hope that Bethea goes away. And he will but not after really hurting us this year.
Janory Jenky has officially lost the right to be called Jckrbbit because he stinks and refuses to try for more than 10-15 plays a game. Baker’s problem in the draft was that people thought he lacked effort and relied on his natural talents to get sure would be nice to at least see those natural talents that they were talking about.
Actually, I came on the board recently to defend him a bit, he’s done much, much better over the past few weeks. He still hasn’t been very good but he’s been better and that’s all I really want; to see the young players improve. So stop saying “this year is about getting better” and then also arguing that Baker is a piece of shit. Sure, he’s not great but he’s literally doing the one thing we all want. Imagine that, the president of the Dave Gettleman is a Fat Shit Fan Club defending a Dave Fat Shit Gettleman draft pick!!! It’s almost as if there is nuance in the world...who would have thunk it?
I have been told by many people that we have linebackers on our roster but I have seen no evidence of this.
I refuse to believe it/acknowledge them. Some players have LB numbers but really are playing DE in sub and those guys are Lorenzo “if he improves in year 2 we’ll be fine at edge rusher” Carter who has not really imporved at all in year two but has 2.5 sacks and 8 QB hits. Oshane “I know he went to small school but he’s going to be the steal of the draft” Ximines who has not really been much of a steal but played almost exactly to the level at which he was drafted, has 2 sacks and 4 QB. And Markus “Hey, alright!” Golden who leads the way with 5.5 sacks, 13 QB hits and gives more effort than just about anyone on the team.
(note: I think DG stinks at evaluating pro-level players and is a very, very excellent college scout. I think that he’s fantastic at drafting talent but it isn’t always the talent the team needs because he’s not great at roster construction. I’m very vocal about all of this as you’ve seen. And yet, I think signing Golden was a great move and he was absolutely right and I was absolutely wrong. Guess what; it’s okay to be wrong! Humility, especially when it’s involving something we have zero effect on, should be/can be easy.)
(Note on that note: part of why I didn’t want to do these is because I knew I’d use them to lecture at some point...sorry about that. Could delete it but I won’t because, let’s be honest, I really never edited these all that much and I’ve also preached a bunch in other spots too. Whatever. You can stop reading at any point.)
DL: one of the funniest things I read was about how Leonard Williams was telling his Giants’ teammates all about the Jats. I can only imagine that there is “Hard Knocks” style room where the entire team is sitting, knock on wood if you know what I mean, and Williams raises his hand in the air.
Head Coach Patrick J. (don’t know his middle initial) Shurmburn is like; “yes, Lenny?” Knock on wood if you like calling him Lenny.
Lenny; “Yo, coach, I think I know a thing or two about the BasicallyDolphins, if you know what I mean,” and an 80’s style laugh track plays out of nowhere, knock on wood if you feel me.
He comes to the front of the room and he looks very seriously at each player, which takes a long time because there are about 90 people in the room with the practice players, coaching staff, training staff, and a woman named Margo who just hangs around whenever they let her. Lenny is a bit shy but he clears his throat, looks down and collects himself before looking back up and saying; “they are pretty bad at’s pretty much it.”
Knock on wood if you think the Raider’s season of Hard Knocks was the worst one ever.
Our DL is pretty decent. There isn’t a single player on it that really scares you but there are good players across the board. BJ Hill had a good game against the Bears last year, Dexter Lawrence is the Odell Beckham of DTs, Dalvin Tomlinson was drafted by Jerry Reese so you probably hate him, and RJ McIntosh tricks you every time you see him because you’re like; “90? Is that...oh no, wait though, who the fuck is it?”
Honestly, Lawrence was a frustrating draft pick and I was totally wrong, it looks like he’s going to be a complete stud.
The line was together for every game this season, proving once again that consistency is the most important element to having a great offensive line...not counting “having good players.” Remmers will likely miss this game because his back has been broken since we last drafted a good LB and Halapio is out with Halitosis. That means we get to see...oh it probably won’t matter, if I’m being honest. Remmers has been bad and Halapio has been pronounced differently by every announcer this year and that’s about all we can say positive about him. I guess Gates and Pulley will get the start. Pulley is just as good as Talapia and Gates is, I mean who the fuck knows really?
Also out; Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram who are the only two pass catchers on the Giants to create any separation at all this season. Even still, it was about 9 yards.
And as I mentioned earlier, Saquon isn’t 100% and that’s clear by looking at him, watching him, touching him, and smelling him; and legally that’s all I’m allowed to do to him until I eventually take my fight all the way to the Supreme Court. Just let me taste the man! How will that hurt anyone?!
I think, lowkey, we really miss Corey Coleman. He would be our best KR, though Latimer did well in that role last week, and he would be a good outside receiver. No offense to Slayton, Latimer, and Fowler but they aren’t very good at football. They’re good at football, clearly, they’re in the NFL, actually they’re great at football, until you compare them to other NFL players and that’s when it all starts to fall apart for them. Maybe Slayton turns himself into a player, but I think we’re seeing what he is; he has the ability to make dynamic and great catches and follows that up with not being able to track the ball at all – which oddly has happened to him like at least 5 times since pre-season. I’ve never seen that before. He’s a fantastic athlete though and a bubble screen or a tap pass/reverse would be great to see. But Patricia is bad a play calling and utilizing the talent he has.
I hope I’m wrong about Slayton but I think he’ll be a rookie contract value guy who maybe sticks around for another season after that – which isn’t bad for a late draft pick like him. He’s certainly not going to win us any games this year by just taking over. And we really need that this week. We need some WR to really, really show up. So that really puts a lot on Tate.
Golden Tate he’s still a good player. He’s not super dynamic but he can catch and can run after the catch. He doesn’t get much seperation and we play him on the outside too much but I bet he gets 6 receptions because in 4/6 games this year he’s had 6 receptions so it seems like a decent guess.
CJ Mosley is the starting MLB and he’s out of this game. But he’s only played in 2 games this year so it won’t likely matter one way or the other. A sign of bad linebacker play is when safeties lead the team in tackles which Bethea and Peppers do for us. A very confusing stat is when your corners lead the team in tackles, which is the case for the Jetserbockers. How? Why? It’s not like teams have had to pass against them. So why do their corners lead their team in tackles? It has to be an awful sign.
They do have Jamal Adams who is a very good player that we are all thankful doesn’t have a star on the side of his helmet. That’s a good thing. We don’t need the Cowboys to be better at football. They’re already above average and we haven’t seen that since Tony Romo held that field goal just slightly off and the ball fell, and everything went to shit and fuck the Cowboys.
Gregg Williams is the DC in well, in our building but on off days. He’s clearly and obviously a scumbag, a bad person, and has horrible hair for a man his age. He’s also aggressive and not smart. He is known for having middle of the road defenses no matter what his roster is. He also runs a lot of 0 blitzes, which is just man to man and you send everyone else. It’s called a 0 blitz because that’s how much imagination it took to design it; zero. Fuck Gregg Williams. Did you know the extra G in Gregg stands for Fuck Gregg Williams? He’s still serving his life-time ban from coaching in the NFL, I think. I don’t really know.
Let’s talk Danny real quick. I like the kid. Okay...hows that? Enough? No? Okay fine.
Danny Dimes is great, or at least he will be great, or at least he might be great someday, or at least he’ll have great games from time to time. I don’t know. You don’t know. Nobody really knows. He has a problem turning the ball over. He fumbles and throws picks all too often. The interceptions don’t really bother me so much honestly. I’ve grown accustomed to them. It’s really the fumbles. Maybe he should put a glove on like Eli did to show; “I’m not really doing much to fix this but now the papers will leave me alone.”
It’s hard for me to say this, I think Danny may end up being better than Eli someday, I think he’ll reach higher highs. Oh, it doesn’t matter for tomorrow though.
He should be able to move the ball against the Getts.
Saquon is needed, so is Gallman. Honestly, Saquon is hurt and we don’t need a guy to run for 50 yards we need a guy who can run for 5 yards a pop so maybe, just maybe, until our #2 – all world running back is healthy we should use him sparingly. Especially since Gallman is better than people think. He’s a good player. Let him get the run. Meanwhile, Saquon is 35% of our future, Dimes is 40%, and 25% is full of players who aren’t on our roster and our guards. Engram and Shepard may be a part of this but I think Shep is starting to look at the short end of a short career and Engram is like Percy Harvin so much that I half expect him to beat the shit out of Golden Tate out of nowhere.
Also, Evan Engram smokes more weed than anyone reading this right now. There’s no way that dude doesn’t get high as fuck all the time. I love it! I love weed. We should all get high all the time. The world is a dystopian nightmare and weed helps you forget that for about 7 seconds and that’s pretty great. So does beer. I also love beer. But that shit is making me fat.
Wait, wasn’t I supposed to talk about Saquon? Meh, whatever, he’s fucking amazing, we all know that. He’s better when he tries to run for 8 yards as opposed to 80 but whatever, watching him run for 80 yards once in a while is so much god damn fun. I love watching him run. Watching him run is like watching Eli throw the sideline pass to Manningham in the last game we won. It’s like watching Sunday Night Football and knowing, deep in your heart, that Rodney Harrison still thinks about David Tyree catching that pass in the 2nd to last game we ever won.
Honestly I think of Saquon as I did Odell. They’re so god damn amazing that I don’t think we deserve them. Hear me out! We haven’t had a skilled position Hall of Famer (non-QB) since Frank Gifford. Yeah. That’s right. And we’ve got 2 in the Hall of Fame. Listen, I’m not saying that OBJ and Saquon are hall of famers, but they have the talent to be those and the only players we’ve had that even had that talent (again – non-QB because QB is about wins and that’s fucking stupid however you slice it) are Tiki and Shockey. And you guys hate them both. So I don’t know what to even tell you about that.
Anyway, growing up in the 80’s and 90’s I felt more nervous when our team was on offense because that’s when bad things happened. Defense, we always had good players and we made plays. So still, even now, when we have highly dynamic offensive skill players it feels wrong to me. Anyway, it feels so conflicting to have great offensive players. We deserve Reuben Randle and Sterling Shepard, decent players with obvious flaws. I don’t know, we’re the Giants, we’re the only blue collar thing left in NY. And when we have fancy ass players like Saquon it feels like new Manhattan.
I’m not really focusing on the game because this will be my last write up. So I’m just spilling it all out. Why not right? This shit is taking forever! Fuck it, let’s end it.
I really ran out of steam on the offense part because I've had a shit day. So let's just rapid fire some of this in hopes that it will make up for it all.
Those sucked...I've lost it!
This wasn’t fun to write and I absolutely guarantee the following comments in some form or another:
These used to be fun. Sorry that they aren’t anymore, if anyone else wants to take them on – they’re all yours.
love you all.
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CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 7 (Sunday Games)

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 7 (Sunday Games)
Hi All! Big slate with some really nice match ups. First lets recap the TNF game.
Singles: 0-4 (-6.13u)
Parlay: none
BBDLS: none
Teasers: none
Notes: Well, this was a rough one to watch. On the bright side, I learned a lot! The Broncos almost had that first quarter. They came out strong, but I think they were a little deflated after missing the two point conversion. Conversely Maholmes came out much hotter than expected. It sucked seeing PM go down like that so early in the game but, it gave our wagers life. The QB for the other side however, Flacco, is done. (IMO) He may have another good game here and there, but he looks SHOOK. He looks so scared to stand in the pocket and take a hit. I think any team that can pressure him will have easy wins. Tyreek Alllmost came through for us in the end having a bomb for a TD, but not quite reaching the yards needed. Sucks we lost our picks, but good to learn about Flacco.

Early Games (1pm)

Arizona @ NY Giants (-3/-4): A fantastic match up to start the day with! Two first round QB picks go head to head. The number one pick, Kyler Murray, and company are coming in with a 2 game win streak while the number 6 pick, Daniel Jones, and the Giants are returning from a few extra days of rest. This extra rest comes at the perfect time as the Giants are getting back offensive juggernaut, Saquan Barkley. They also see the return of a favorable target in TE Evan Ingram. Other than Sterling Shepherd not returning for the Giants, they seem to be near full strength. The Cardinals, not so much. While they do see the return of Patrick Peterson (6 game suspension), they are going to be a little short on offense. So far out is (DL) Zach Allen (neck), (RB) D.Jd. Foster (hamstring) and (OL) Brett Toth (illness). Game time decisions are (WR) Christian Kirk and (RB) David Johnson who is probable to play (but with an ankle injury). If for some reason he is out, Arizona will be down to only 1 RB, Chase Edmunds. They could use both of those RBs to help pull linebackers in because the Giants are horrible against the pass. So far they have let opposing QBs average a 103 Passer rating and put up 285 yards p/g passing They rank 27th in points allowed and 28th in yards conceded. (however, I take these stats with a grain of salt. First two games Giants were flat because Eli, after that Saquan was out, costing the Giants TOP and putting their defense on the field longer) Luckily for NY, the Arizona defense is worse. The are 29th in points allowed, 30th in yards conceded and are the only team in the league not to have an INT. Combine the return of Evan Ingram with a Cardinals defense that has given up a league-high 599 yards and seven touchdowns to tight ends...
I think this is also a good game to look at props:
  • Evan Ingram: Obviously I am looking here. He is coming off two weeks rest. He is the primary receiver for Jones and he is facing the Cardinals.
  • Scary Larry: Not only does he normally do well playing in MetLife stadium, but he is the most consistent, reliable option for Murray. Fitz has caught at least 5 balls in EVERY game this year. His total is 5.5 right now and is +
  • Markus Golden: He has been killing it this year. Recording at least 0.5 sacks in 5 games straight and Kyler Murray is 5th on the most sacked list right now with 21 times.
At the beginning of the weak, I was going to be hard on the over too. Both crappy D, both two young QBs looking to be the better choice. But, with the addition of Saquan back in the lineup, I am cautious of the Giants running the ball against the Arizona D that is giving up 4.6 ypc, allowing them to manage the clock better. The algo has the Giants at -5 and I am definitely in concurrence on this game. I also might sprinkle a little on the Giants to win the NFC East. It's early, but looking at their would be the time to take them if you like them!

Houston @ Indianapolis(PK/-1): Here we have one of the more anticipated match ups of the day. A divisional battle for the current 1st place in the division. Both are coming off an upset victory over the Chiefs in Arrowhead. But, the Colts are coming off a bye week and extra rest. First we start with injuries. The Colts utilized their bye week and are nearing full strength. (LB) Darius Leonard has been out for 3 games, but looks to return. The Texans have sustained some key injuries. They lost Bradley Roby (corner) and offensive tackle Tytus Howard. DeAndre Hopkins was limited in practice (ribs) but appears to be a go for Sunday. The Texans offense is pretty good. They are 1st in the league on 3rd down completion and averaging 4.9 ypc on the ground. The Colts D is pretty weak vs. the run giving up 5.1ypc (28th). Their pass D is pretty horrible too, giving out ratings of: QBR (29th) completion % (26th) and 3rd down stopping (26th). However, it is the same story on the other side of the ball as the Colts run offense averages 142 ypg (4th) and 4.5 ypc (13th). They are going against a Texans run D that gives up 4.4 ypc (18th). The Colts offense is (9th) on 3rd down at 46% and Houston is bottom 10 in the league at 3rd down stoppage. There are these interesting stats: Jacoby Brisset has only been sacked 6 times this year and colts are currently the least penalized team in the league. Also, Brisset is somehow 3-0 vs Houston? (Not sure this stat means much).
My algo has this one as a 21-21 PK. That doesn't include a HFA adjustment. This easily has me leaning the home team. Personally, I feel like the extra rest, the HFA, and the offensive line/run game of the Colts are the factors that tip the scale. (I do like the Colts in this game, but I still favor Houston to win the division)
Something to keep in mind for this game. Yea, Watson has put up over 80 points the last two weeks...But how did he look against two of the three formidable defenses he faced? 13 points against JAX and 10 points against the Panthers. Both home games. He did score 28 against the Saints D....but that was week 1, when everyone is just getting in the flow. I expect the Colts to to a much better job at keeping the Texans below 20 points.
If I was looking props in this game, it would be Marlon Mack for IND.

Miami @ Buffalo(-16.5/-17): Probably one of the lesser watched games of the slate. Buffalo is coming off a nice rest. Miami is coming off a missed Tua-point conversion that was probably their best shot at a win this year. They also benched Rosen in the middle of last game for Fitzpatrick. He came in and did OK vs the Redskins throwing 12-18 for 132 yards, 1 TD and almost a 107 QBR. However, that was vs. a Redskins D. This is vs. a Bills D that is top 5 in pretty much every category. They also have a takeaway in 4 out of 5 games this season. Which sucks for Fitz-running out of- Magic who through 4 INTs in BOTH game 1 and game 2 for Miami. Bills rush offense averages 139 ypg (6th) and 4.8 ypc (10th) and they will be facing a Miami defense that has 4.7 ypc allowed (23rd). Here you would think the focus will be on Frank Gore one of his former teams, but personally I think the focus is going to shift to the return of Rookie (RB) Devin Singletary. He has missed the Bills last 3 games with a hamstring injury, but looks ready to go. The Bills should look to use him to balance the load on the aging Gore. Fitz is a favorite to throw a TD and and INT. But barring some miracle defensive showing from the Dolphins, i see this one as an easy win for Buffalo.

Jacksonville @ Cincinatti(+4/+4.5): Here we see if the Stash can get back on track, vs the win less Bengals. The Bengals are 0-6, but they have lost 4 of those 6 by less than a TD. Jacksonville was disappointing at home last week but I think more credit has to be given to the Saints D rather than taken away from Jacksonville. First lets dive into the injuries. The Bengals have a ton: OUT: (OT) Cordy Glenn (suspended); (WR) A.J. Green (ankle); (OT) Andre Smith (ankle); (CB) William Jackson III (shoulder); (CB) Dre Kirkpatrick (knee); (DE) Carl Lawson (hamstring); (G )John Miller (groin). Doubtful: (DE) Carlos Dunlap (knee). The Jags injuries are all on the offensive side of the ball: Out: (WR) Marqise Lee (ankle); (TE) Geoff Swaim (concussion/ankle). Questionable: (WR) Dede Westbrook (shoulder). However, the Jags are very Four-tu-nette to have Leonard on their team. He has 584 yards with 5.1 ypc and is facing a Cincy run D that gives up 5.3 ypc. (good for last in the NFL) Looking defensively, the Jags 19 sacks (4th) this year and Dalton has been sacked 22 times this year (28th). The Mustache has has 9 TDs to 2 picks and a 97.5 passer rating (13th). I look for him to get back on track this week against a Bengals pass D that has let opposing QBs have a 105 passer rating (27th) and 69% completion percentage (24th). If I look at props this game, I will probably be looking the way of DJ Chark. He has been killing it since the insertion of Minshew and with the string of offensive weapons out for Jacksonville, I look for Chark to have increased opportunities. \**Another props look might be Joe Mixon. He has averaged over 100 yards in his last 10 home games. (Although a main counter to this stat is the most likely game script has Cincy playing from behind meaning less rushing opportunities) His total is currently only at 67.5.*

San Francisco @ Washington (+9.5/+10): Another game this will likely be one of the least watched. The undefeated 49ers travel to D.C. to take on the Redskins who are coming off their first and likely only victory this season. This game sees the 49ers coach return to the place that last fired him. First we look at the injuries. For the Redskins, Running back Chris Thompson is OUT with a toe injury. Tight end Vernon Davis is OUT with a concussion. Offensive lineman Wes Martin is OUT with a chest injury. Deshazor Everett is OUT with an ankle injury. Linebacker Josh Harvey-Clemson is OUT with a hamstring injury and Cornerback Josh Norman is QUESTIONABLE with thigh/hand injuries. For the 49ers, OUT is (DT) DJ Jones (hamstring), (CB) Ahkello Witherspoon (foot), (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), (OT) Joe Staley (fibula), and (WR) Deebo Samuel (groin). With (RB) Raheem Mostert (knee) listed as questionable. The 49er offense is pretty good with their rush offense leading the way. Rushing for 180 ypg and doing so at 4.6 ypc. The Redskins rush D gives up 134 ypg at 4.6ypc. Sadly the Redskins pass D isn't much either, allowing opposing QBs an average 71% completion percentage and a 101 passer rating. My algo has this as SF -14. (However, this is before injuries and... the allllll important trip from West coast to East coast for a 1pm game... adjustments have been made) The algo has this as a 31-17 game but I can easily see SF putting up more...OR less. For that reason this will probably be a no play for me. (Although, as my consistent readers know, I love betting the first quarter against West coast teams traveling east for a 1pm game. This may get a look, especially if I can find a +3 or better for WAS.)

Oakland @ Green Bay(-4.5/-5/-5.5): One of the bigger and more curious line movements of the week. Opened at -7, Green Bay WON vs the Lions, and the line has moved allllll the way do to settle at -4.5 at most available books. Very Very curious to me. Not only is then line moving against Green Bay (getting almost half the tickets written on them), but GB WON their last game!!! This has to be a red flag for heavy sharp action on the Raiders point spread. Which, when we dive in, has some serious merit. First of all, the Raiders are coming off a bye, having played their last game two weeks ago in London and put an upset on the Bears. Secondly, the Oakland offense is doing pretty well right now. Derrick Carr is leading the league in completion percentage at 73.3%. To compliment that, the Raiders rush attack is running at an average of 4.9 ypc and gaining and average 134 ypg. The GB rush D has given up 120 ypg in 4 out of 6 games this year and is averaging giving up 124 ypg rushing on the season. Unfortunately for the Raiders, their Pass D isn't the best. They did pretty well in their last game, but it was against a Chase Daniel lead Bears offense. Overall they give up an average 104 QBR (26th) to opposing QBs and 264 ypg (22nd). Let's take a look at the injury report. For the Packers, receiver Davante Adams (toe) and safety Darnell Savage (ankle) are both out. Receiver Geronimo Allison (concussion) and tight end Robert Tonyan (hip) are doubtful and defensive lineman Kenny Clark (calf/back), receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle/back) and cornerback Tony Brown (hamstring) are all questionable. On the bright side for the Pack, cornerback Kevin King, tight end Jimmy Graham and cornerback Tramon Williams are all expected to play. For the Raiders, Tyrell Williams and Arden Key are OUT. Right tackle Trent Brown is doubtful, while receivereturner Dwayne Harris and guard Gabe Jackson are both questionable. The Algo has GB as -5.5 in this one, but the the heavy line movement that is counter to GB having a win on Monday night has me leaning OAK or stay away.

Minnesota @ Detroit(+2.5): Minnesota coming off back to back wins where Cousins took care of both his crying receivers. Detroit is coming off a heartbreaking loss that in the opinion of many could be chalked up to the Refs. However when we look closer we see that the Lions were 3 of 13 on 3rd down and kicked 5 field goals (two inside the ten yard line). They also had a stupid 12 men on the field penalty in a key spot. Let's take a look at the injury reports. For the Lions, no new injuries appeared to take anyone out of the game. Defensive tackle Da’Shawn Hand, safety Quandre Diggs, offensive tackle Rick Wagner, fullback Nick Bawden, and cornerback Darius Slay are all questionable, but all will most likely play. For the Vikings, only line backer Ben Gedeon is out, while LB Kentrell Brothers remains questionable. This feels like it has the makings of a low scoring game where Stafford has the ball in his hands to win it or lose it in the 4th. Will he redeem the divisional loss to Rodgers on MNF in the closing minutes? Or will the Lions fade away in the division race? The Minn D speaks for itself, top 10 in EVERY Defensive category. The Minn run game is also elite averaging 5.1 ypc (3rd) and it will be facing a Detroit run D that gives up 5.1 ypc(28th). My model had this opening at Detroit -1.5 but after the loss the GB, I can see why the line is moving. I can't imagine it getting up to +3 but if it does, I will be all over the Lions. I would have to say my strongest lean here is towards the Under. Barring a few defensive scores, I think this game is ground and pound with a side of slow clock management and has a good shot at staying under the total. I would be surprised if either team scores over 21 here. The Vikings (even with the 28-10 win over the NYG) are only averaging 17 ppg on the road. I will be looking for a closer game and leaning under the total.

L.A. Rams @ Atlanta (+3): The last 1pm game on the slate and it's a tough one to decipher. The Rams started off great going 3-0 but have since dropped 3 straight. (Two against division opponents) The Falcon's, while it looks like a shit show sitting at 1-5, actually still have a outside shot at winning their division. This is because they haven't played ANY of their divisional games yet. It would be sooooo sweet to see them somehow go 6-0 in the division and lose every other game but still win the division. Which...if their defense can somehow get good overnight.. could actually be a possibility with the way Matt Ryan is playing. Last week he went 30-36 350+ yards 4 TDs and a 145 QBR. He has had a 300+ yard passing game EVERY GAME this season. And only thrown less than 2 TDs one time. Unfortunately for him, he faces the Rams D that only gives up 241 ypg (14th) The placed Talib on IR, and traded away Marcus Peters, but replaced him with a fancy new toy in Jaylen Ramsey. On the other side of the ball we have the Rams offense. Which it seems like something is a little GeOFF. Geoff has 7 TDs and 7 picks with a QBR of 80...On the bright side for Geoff, he seems to be better when he isn't pressured (as are all QBs) and the Falcons only have 5 sacks on the year. He will be facing a Falcons third down defense that is the worst in the league allowing almost half of the 3rd down plays to convert against them. This should be a defense for Geoff to get right against as they allow an average QBR of 120 while allowing opposing QBs to throw for 8.3 ypa. All signs point to an LA bounce back. No real injuries to note. Gurley is back for the Rams. The Falcon's are without star defensive player Desmond Trufant but honestly, he hasn't looked good enough this year for me to warrant that a big drop. My algo has this as LA -1. There is a good chance come game time I am leaning Falcons with the points. \**Interesting note, this game also falls into my favorite spot, West coast teams traveling East for a 1pm start****

Afternoon Games (4pm)

L.A. Chargers @ Tennessee (-2.5): For our first afternoon game of the slate we have two crappy teams, likely to miss the playoffs. On the one hand we have the Chargers who have lost 2 straight as a favorite. On the other side of the ball we have the Titans that have also lost 2 straight. First lets look at injuries. Los Angeles will be without their two starting defensive tackles, Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane. Melvin Ingram is doubtful. The Titans have some questionable ( ) but the most note worthy injury is the possible absence of Delanie Walker. Starting with the Chargers, they have been horrible in the turnover department, giving up 3 in each of their recent losses and a whopping 11 on the season so far. One bright spot for the Chargers is the opportunity at pass rush. They currently only have 12 sacks on the season but in this game they face a Titans team that has allowed 29 sacks! (the most in the NFL) It would be nice if the Chargers could get their run game back on track, having 4 straight games under 100 yards rushing and averaging only 3.8 ypc. Rivers is going to have his hands full, facing a Titans D that is legit. They only give up an average of 217 ypg passing (6th) and limit opposing QBs to a 86.4 QBR (11th). While this is probably going to be a crappy game, my algo has the Chargers coming out as -3.5 favorite, predicting a low scoring affair around the 18-13 range. Should be interesting to see which team gives themselves some hope!

New Orleans @ Chicago(-4/-4.5): New Orleans rolls into Chicago riding a hot 4 game win streak on the back of an even hotter defense. Although this week the Saints will be without Jared Cook, Alvin Kamar, and Tre'quan Smith. Chicago tries to wake up as they see the return of QB Mitch Trubitsky and WR Taylor Gabriel after a bye week and some rest. Currently the Bears offense needs some work. They have only scored an average of 17.4 ppg (27th), gain 266 ypg (30th), pass for 185 ypg (30th) and convert on only 1 out of 3 third downs. That offense is going up a Saints D that has been on fire. They haven't allowed more than 260 yards in their last 3 games and their pass rush has a 33% pressure rate (3rd) and 18 sacks (6th). The Saints are going up against a rested Bears D that is only giving up 14 ppg (3rd) and has 10 turnovers (9th) in 5 games. Currently this is an underdog or stay away for me. My Algo has Chicago as 4 point favorites in a 17-13 style game AND the RLM (3 out of 5 tickets are on NO and the points but the line has moved from a -3 open to -4/-4.5) indicates that sharp money is on Chicago... But I cant help thinking the #Saints are #Blessed. Given that a positive case can be made for both sides, it is probably best to avoid this game. However, I may be looking at the Under given both teams defensive track records.

Baltimore @ Seattle (-2/-3): Ooooo boy, I am excited to see this one. Not that there are many playoff implications, as this is a non conference match up, but I am excited to see both of these teams (that are usually known for defense) compete with their explosive QBs. First off, very curious that the lines I have are -2 and -3 and not -2.5 and -3. The DK/SH books must have had a recent large wager on Baltimore. Russel Wilson is currently on fire and seriously stating his claim to the MVP trophy this year. He has 14 TDs and 0 INTs with a QBR of 125. He averages 9 yards per attempt (2nd) and has a completion percentage of 72.5!!! However for this game he will be without one of his favorite targets this year, Will Dissly. On the other side of the ball we have the have the Seattle D. So far, the rush D is giving up 4.7 ypc (27th) which doesn't bode well vs. the combo of Mark Ingram and the designed run plays for Jackson. \**An interesting note someone tweeted:* Russell Wilson's three career pick-sixes have gone to a King, a Prince, and a Captain, and he plays an Earl this Sunday. Safety Earl Thomas returns to Seattle this Sunday as a part of the Raven's team. He left Seattle after an injury during a contract hold out in 2018.\***
If I had to take a side, I feel like it would be the dog and the points. 4 of 5 of Seattle's wins this year have been by 4 points or less and 4 of Baltimore's games have been decided by a TD or less. This does have potential for a teaser. (Baltimore and the over)

Night Game (8 pm)

Philadelphia @ Dallas (-2.5/-3): For the last game of the day we have a battle for the NFC east. The coach for the Eagles was heard on a radio show saying "we're gonna win this game". The Eagles come into this game after getting smoked by the Vikings. Dallas is in a similar sinking ship losing their last 3. But, last year they started in the same ship going 3-5 only to finish 10-6. To plug the holes, it's going to have to start with turnovers. They had 2 in their first 3 games, but have given up 6 in their 3 losses. The Eagles offense looks decent. With Wentz throwing for 12 TDs - 3 INTs, averaging 243 ypg with a 94 QBR. The Eagles rushing attack is getting 4 ypc (19th) and 111 ypg (15th). The Eagles D on the other hand is medicare - bad. The Eagles Do have 14 sacks...but 10 of them came in one game (Jets). The Eagles Pass D gives up 280 ypg (29th) and has given up 13 pass TDs (28th). The Eagles like to stack the box which is bad news for Zeke, but that is good news for all of Dallas WRs. Because of the heavy run stuffing action that Philly produces, they have created a defense that is extremely susceptible to big plays in the air. "No team has allowed more 30-yard passing touchdowns or more 100-yard receivers than the Eagles"
The injury reports for both teams:
  • CB Anthony Brown (hamstring) - OUT
  • WR Amari Cooper (ankle/quad) - Questionable
  • WR Randall Cobb (back) - Questionable
  • OT Tyron Smith (ankle) - Questionable
  • OT La'el Collins (knee) - Questionable
  • C Joe Looney (back) - Questionable
  • G Zack Martin (back/ankle) - Questionable
  • DE Dorance Armstrong (neck) - Questionable
  • CB Byron Jones (hamstring) - Questionable
  • RB Darren Sproles (quad) - OUT
  • WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen) - OUT
  • OT Jason Peters (knee) - OUT
  • DT Tim Jernigan (foot) - OUT
  • LB Nigel Bradham (ankle) - OUT
  • CB Avonte Maddox (concussion, neck) - OUT
  • CB Ronald Darby (hamstring) - Questionable
This game looks like it could go either way. I lean on Prescott's running ability to help keep some drives alive but personally I think the best look in this game is Dallas Team Total points. Currently it sits at 24/24.5 depending on the book. The Eagles have given up at least 24 points to EVERY QB this year Except Luke Faulk and the Jets.

Singles 37-41 (+4.33u)
  • Evan Ingram 5.5 Rec Over (0.68u to win 0.5u)
  • Scary Larry 5.5 Rec Over (2u to win 2.4u)d
  • Markus Golden 0.5 Sacks Over (3.4u to win 2u)
  • Giants 1H (1.6u to win 1u)
  • Giants ml (5.1u to win 3u)
  • Colts 1H ml (1.2u to win 1u)
  • Colts ml (1.15u to win 1u)
  • Marlon Mack 16.5 Rush Attempts Over (3.33u to win 3u)
  • Marlon Mack to score 1st TD and Colts Win (0.5u to win 6.5u)
  • Devin Singletary 36.5 Rush Yards Over (2.67u to win 2u)
  • Joe Mixon 67.5 Yds Rush Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
  • Leonard Fournette 89.5 Yds Rush Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
  • DJ Chark 4.5 Rec Over (0.5u to win 0.54u)
  • Oak +5.5 (1.05u to win 1u)
  • Min/Det Total 43 Under (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Atl 1Q ml (1u to win 1.23u)
  • Matt Ryan Passing Yards 310.5 Over (1.1u to win 1u)
  • LAC +3 (1.14u to win 1u)
  • Joey Bosa 0.5 Sacks Over (2.5u to win 2u)
  • Bal/Sea Both teams to score 1TD and 1FG in each half (1u to win 9u)
  • Dal Team Total 24.5 Over (2.27u to win 2u)
Parlays: 1-1 (+45.42u)
  • NYG ml, Colts +5.5 and Under 53.5, SF ml, Buf 1H ml, NE ml (0u to win 20.6u) Free Bet on Points Bet
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-3 (-2.23u)
  • Ind -1, NYG ml, 49ers -9.5, Jax ml, NE ml, Dal ml, Oak ml, Buf -17, La +2.5 (1u to win 189.5)
  • Ind +4.5, Buf -8.5, Oak +7.5, NYG ml, Jax ml , 49ers ml, LAC +3.5, Dal ml, NE ml, Bal +4.5 (0.96u to win 141.6u)
  • Marcus Golden Sacs Over, Marlon Mack Rush Attempts Over, Devin singletary rush yards over, Matt Ryan Passing Yards over, 49ers ml, NE ml, Oak ml, LAC ml, Bengals +4.5 (1u to win 190.6u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-1 (-0.5u)
  • I put in a card for the Ocean Casino. It is (0.5u to win 10000u). Im not going to type them all out as it probably won't hit, but if it is live going after the early game, I will post a picture.
Teasers: 3-8 (-9.98u)
  • Colts +5.5 and Under 53.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Oak +11 and Over 40 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • LAC +7.5 and Under 48.5(1.1u to win 1u)
  • Sea +5.5 and Over 42.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • I put in a 15 teamer on a card for the Ocean Casino. It is (1u to win 200u). Im not going to type them all out as it probably won't hit, but if it is life after the early games, I will post a picture.
  • NE, GB, CLE, NYG all to win their Division (0u to win 257.8u) This is a Free bet (last one for DK, it was close to expiring) I like CLE's schedule after the pats game. NYG..I mean cmon. Everyones getting healthy, and the rest of the division hasn't been dominant enough to count them out. Should be a fun sweat!
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Quick Thoughts on every Week 1 game

PRO TIP: CTRL+F the players you care about
Panthers @ Broncos
Vikings @ Titans
Browns @ Eagles
Chargers @ Chiefs
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Packers @ Jaguars
Bears @ Texans
Bills @ Ravens
Raiders @ Saints
Bengals @ Jets
Dolphins @ Seahawks
Giants @ Cowboys
Lions @ Colts
Patriots @ Cardinals
Steelers @ Redskins
Rams @ 49ers
Thanks for reading! I hope this was helpful to some of you in making lineup decisions. If I missed someone and you want to know what I think of them, feel free to ask in the comments.
If you enjoyed this consider checking out this thread about the Fantasy Collective, a fantasy team drafted and managed by the popular vote of redditors like yourself. We’re setting our lineup today so just pop in, vote for who you would start, and you’re done!
Best of luck to all in Week 1!
submitted by Ehan2 to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

Weekly Predictor Challenge -- Week 15 -- Analysis and picks

Last week was about par for the course so far this season — more big injuries (RIP Ginger Jesus), crazy upsets (Jay Cutler, really?), and the Browns doing Browns things (they have now lost the last three games when leading by 14+). December football is usually littered with tough match-ups and close calls, but it’s also a time where NFL stars usually shine the brightest, so hopefully EA doing away with the spreads this week makes picking easier because last week was brutal (ended 16/32 after starting poorly, but finishing strong). It didn’t look like anyone faired very well (Stacocakes got 15 over on the MUT head forums), but someone out there got 27, so kudos to you! lol I’m typically better at picking straight up wins and losses in match-ups, so I’m hoping that luck continues this week with some fairly easy match-up decisions (i.e. Ravens vs Browns, Saints vs Jets). No guarantees though, as usual, so use these picks at your own discretion.
Let’s get back on track.
Good luck everyone.
Here's to week 15.
PICKS14 False/18 True
1) — Bills beat Dolphins — FALSE The Dolphins have looked better these last two weeks, and they handled the Patriots pretty convincingly in Miami (I can’t believe I just wrote that). Kenyan Drake has been a revelation for this offense that’s struggled for much of the season, and he’s made it obvious why the Dolphins felt confident in moving on from Ajayi. With Drake at RB, and Jay Cutler seemingly playing his best football of the season, this team is pretty different than the one that was shutout twice. Sure, Tom Brady put up a performance we almost never see from him last week against this squad (his record in Miami is now 7-9), and the Broncos are a broken team, but the Dolphins look improved on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Bills are trending downward with QB injuries and questions continuing to swirl at other positions, even with Tyrod Taylor coming back. Kelvin is on track to come back as well, but this team is lacking playmakers, and can those playmakers make it through a game? It seems like injuries happen every week for this team. The frigid weather will play a factor here for the Dolphins after coming off of two warm home games, while the Bills look to stay relevant for the wildcard, but it just feels like the momentum is on the Dolphins’ side after a convincing win against the Patriots. That will give this Dolphins squad added confidence in itself. Winter games are where playoff desperate teams play hard, but the Bills have been inconsistent. Drake should continue to play well against this Bills defense (24th), which opens up the passing game for Cutler, and I think that will be the difference.
(Vegas odds) - pick ‘em
2) — Bills defense 2 sacks — FALSE The Dolphins have let up 2+ sacks in each of the last 3 games, but those were against much better front sevens (Broncos, and Patriots twice). Miami is 10th in pass protection, while the Bills are 29th in sacks. 6 sacks came in one game in the beginning of the season, and without that one game they are dead last in the league. They just don’t put up pressure on the QB as much as you would like for them to reach this (especially with Dareus out). Buffalo’s front seven is much better at stopping the run (9th) anyway, and with the running game most likely being featured for both teams, I expect less opportunity for sacks.
3) — Browns beat Ravens — FALSE — The Browns BLEW it last week. That was there best, and most likely only, chance to get a win for the rest of the season. Now they’re playing a better team, and an especially tougher defense. I’m absolutely not picking the Browns to win this week.
(Vegas odds) - BAL -7
4) — Browns have 100+ total rushing yards — FALSE The Ravens have stifled much better rushing teams, and they haven’t let the last 6 teams reach this mark. The Browns are averaging 108 yards per game on the season, and they do have some capable RBs, but the Ravens are a significant challenge (8th best run stuffers, #1 overall defense according to FO). The Ravens are missing Jimmy Smith after that last game with the Steelers, but their front seven remains intact and dominant.
5) — Vikings beat Bengals — TRUE — The Bengals basically gave up against the Bears last week. They just didn’t want it, and they were clearly hungover still from their loss against the Steelers. Injuries did part of the damage (Burfict and Mixon were both out), but they flat out quit. Credit to Trubisky and the Bears coaching staff making a game plan that’s been working well for the young rookie, and credit to the Bears defense as well, but the Bengals didn’t want this. Now they travel to Minnesota to play one of the best teams in the NFL in all three phases of the game that just lost a tough matchup against the Panthers. Nothing about this game should go in the Bengals favor.
(Vegas odds) - MIN -11
6) — Vikings 230+ rec yards — TRUE — The Vikings represent a much bigger and more diverse challenge for this Bengals squad, and they can bet that this team will come out fierce after their loss to Carolina. The Bengals are 8th in the league with only 213 pass yards allowed per game, but the Vikings are averaging 248 passing yards per game, and sport a highly skilled WR and TE core that can get the job done all over the field. Case Keenum has thrown for at least 230 pass yards in 5 out of the last 6 games (missing one game by only 3 yards), so this is almost a lock as long as the running game doesn’t take over (which is absolutely possible against this Burfict-less defense this week), Case gets injured or the Vikings fall apart out of nowhere. Kyle Rudolph is looking like a no go this week. I still like the true prediction, but that will put a damper on the confidence in this pick.
7) — Saints beat Jets — TRUE — McCown is out, Kamara is back and basically every chance the Jets had at keeping up with this Saints team is non-existent. Pretty easy one here. Saints will win.
(Vegas Odds) - NO -16
8) — Saints 250+ rec yards — FALSE This one is interesting because Drew Brees is usually a lock for throwing for this many yards (averaging 265 yards per game, which is 5th in the league, and has done this the last 4 games straight), and the Jets defense doesn’t pose much of a threat to stop this total (27th ranked secondary). So why False? Well, I think this game is gonna be a blowout on every single front. The running game is gonna be great, the defense is gonna eat against Bryce Petty, and Drew will definitely carve up this defense, but he will only have so many throws and chances to get yards as the rest of the team will be featured as well. Hell, I think the starters get pulled in the 4th Q to save themselves for the playoffs, so even though this total should be easy for Drew, I think the gameplan and flow of the game stifles this total a bit. Total gut call, and if McCown was playing I’d say true, but I like the team as a whole flourishing this week and not just the passing game.
9) — Giants beat Eagles — FALSE — Even with Foles at QB, this team is still stout on defense, they have a great running game, and Foles really isn’t that bad. NFC East match-ups are notoriously hard to pin down, and usually these games are tough to call in the winter as playoffs are on the line for both teams typically, but the Giants are simply too injured at too many different positions to have any confidence in. It may end up being close through poor Foles play, but the Eagles are the better team even without Wentz, and thankfully we don’t have to worry about the spread.
(Vegas Odds) - PHI -7.5
10) — Giants 2 TDs — TRUE — Even though the Eagles will win, I don’t have confidence that the Eagles will stop 2 TDs throughout the entirety of the game. The Eagles might even sit some starters if the game gets out of hand and garbage time TDs are the worst to bet against. Maybe even see a possible pick six if Foles comes out rusty, so with apparently any TD counting in this match, I’m taking the over.
11) — Redskins beat Cardinals — TRUE — I like the Redskins here as the Cardinals are another beat up squad that continues to get injured. This time it’s the offensive line where two new starters will come in (LT and RG both gone to injury last week) and Adrian Peterson was placed on IR. Blaine Gabbert was sacked 8 times last week, and that could possibly get even worse against this capable redskins front seven that ranks 16th in sacks after those key injuries (last weeks team that got 8 sacks also ranks 16th — a sign of things to come possibly). The Cardinals running game hasn’t been bad without AP, but with two new O-line pieces it’s not gonna look great, and the Redskins are capable enough to beat Blaine Gabbert defensively through the air. This is the Redskins’ softest match-up in two weeks, and they look primed to take it, even with the Cardinals’ defense playing well. Call this the “Injury Bowl.”
(Vegas Odds) - WASH -4.5
12) — Redskins 240+ rec yards — TRUE This is harder to pinpoint, since the Cardinals are very capable in the secondary (8th overall), but Kirk has thrown for this much in 8 of the last 9 games, and I think he’s gonna have to continue attacking through the air in this one. Cardinals have a very stout run D (3rd overall), while the Redskins are severely lacking in that category (28th overall in rush offense), so if they want to reliably move the ball and win this game then Kirk is gonna have to throw.
13) — Panthers beat Packers — TRUE — This is truly, truly hard to pick with A-a-ron making his return. He’s just that good, and he can win a game with 15 seconds left while down two possessions. He’s insane. I’m tempering my expectations, however, because the Panthers are a great squad all around and they’re playing some of their best football currently. The true tipping point is the Packers on defense who rank 26th in the league overall, and 18th against the rush, so even though they’ll potentially play better with Rodgers in the mix they can’t overcome their inherent skill level at this point in the season. Maybe if this game was in Lambeau I’d say the Packers can put something miraculous on the field, but I think it’s too little too late. The Panthers look primed for the playoffs, and Cam Newton is putting together great games, so I say the Panthers take this against a possibly rusty Aaron Rodgers.
(Vegas Odds) - CAR -2.5
14) — Panthers have 120+ rush yards — TRUE — Cam Newton rushes well. Jonathan Stewart rushes well. They average 135 yards per game (5th in the league). They got this.
15) — Jags beat the Texans — TRUE — This was going to be a hard match-up regardless for the Texans with Tom Savage at QB, but now it’s damn near insurmountable with T.J. Yates most likely starting after Savage’s injury. It’s a tall task to ask a third string QB to take on Sacksonville, and Bortles is playing well enough on offense, so I don’t see anyway the Texans can come close to winning. This should be a blowout.
(Vegas Odds) - JAX -11.5
16) — Jags 125+ rush yards — FALSE Leonard Fournette has been ruled out, and because of that I don't have confidence in this pick anymore. Jags average a league best 150 yards per game on the ground. Even though the Texans allow the 10th least rush yards per game (105 yards per game) and are ranked 6th overall in rush defense, the Jags are a great running squad that put up 155 rush yards last time these played. That was when the Texans had more of their defensive playmakers playing as well, so I like the Jags here a lot, especially at home.
17) — Seahawks beat Rams — FALSE — The Seahawks’ defense is getting more and more depleted. With Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright most likely out for this week’s game, and Robert Woods returning for the Rams, I don’t see any conceivable way the Rams can be stopped from scoring on every drive. For example, without Bobby Wagner in the third Q last week, the Jags scored on their next two consecutive drives. That’s not a coincidence. Bobby is the captain and without him calling the plays or making adjustments on defense the difference is gonna be akin to the Cowboys losing Sean Lee. The Rams are scoring 30+ a game and getting back a key component to their scheme, so this is one of those rare times where playing in Seattle might not mean much at all. Russell Wilson is an MVP candidate for a reason, and Mike Davis should continue to be featured at RB for a little spark, but this Seattle offense shouldn’t be able to keep up with this Rams team.
(Vegas Odds) - SEA -2.5
18) — Seahawks 2 passing TDs — TRUE Wilson gets it done, and he’s thrown at least 2 passing TDs in the last 8 games straight. Don’t outsmart yourself. The Rams are a good defense, but Wilson can get 2 passing TDs in his sleep. The chances are minuscule he doesn’t get this with a lacking running game.
19) — Rams 100+ rushing yards — TRUE — Wright and Wagner are not looking good to start this game and if that’s the case then this is a lock. Watch the injury report on this. This could be the Todd Gurley show. I wouldn’t want to play him in fantasy football this week.
20) — Steelers beat Patriots — TRUE Here it is, the game of the week! Home field advantage and first-round bye is on the line for the Steelers, so if playing against the Patriots in a potential AFC championship preview didn’t mean enough already it just got bigger. This will easily be the hardest pick of the match-ups this week because it’s basically gonna come down to who makes the final play on offense as both defenses are struggling mightily with injuries at key positions. Patriots get Gronk back and Belichick will absolutely make sure his team is ready for this game after the embarrassing loss the Dolphins just handed them (for example, the Patriots were 0-10 on 3rd down conversions, and Brady threw 2 INTs). While the Steelers are coming off of a close, but offensively prolific, victory against the Ravens where Big Ben threw for over 500, Le’Veon had 3 TDs, and Antonio Brown had over 200 yards. Joe Haden also looks pretty good to return finally, bolstering this secondary that desperately needs his help this week, especially without Shazier. But the Patriots can’t stop the run to save their lives and Le’Veon Bell is the last RB you wanna face when you are struggling the most. The Patriots will definitely play better than last week, and they’re gonna score plenty of points against the Steelers if they constantly play zone like last season (Brady is the quintessential zone beater), but the Steelers look primed to beat the Patriots for the first time since 2011, and at home none-the-less. I can’t believe this isn’t a prime time game.
(Vegas Odds) - NE -3
21) — Steelers 110+ rushing yards — TRUE — The Steelers are surprisingly not very good at racking up yards on the ground (23rd in league with an average of 99.7 yards per game rushing). If the scheme is skewed towards passing for the game, then they typically just pass to Le’Veon in the short game so he can get his typically high YAC in the open field. The Scheme should play in our favor this week, however, as the Patriots are terrible at stopping the run (especially with Alan Branch sitting this week with injury) and rank 23rd in yards given up per game (121 yards per game rushing). Connor is also a great backup RB that can get at least 20-30 yards on this squad, so the Steelers shouldn’t have a problem getting this total this week as long as the running game isn’t abandoned due to the score. This is a flow of the game type pick, but Le’Veon should be able to get this after what we just saw the Dolphins do.
22) — Steelers 3+ sacks — FALSE — Steelers are 2nd in the league in sacks behind only Sacksonville, and rank 3rd in pass rush overall, but I think this is a scheme based pick. The Steelers know how good Brady is against the blitz, and without Shazier I’m sure they won’t try anything too exotic on Tom because they will be eaten alive. They have yet to sack Tom 3 times in their last 3 match-ups straight and I think that continues without elite pass rushers (Heyward and Tuitt are great, but they aren't elite).
23) — 49ers beat Titans — TRUE — Home game for the 49ers and Jimmy G looks great so far after two weeks. There is no denying that this 49ers squad is playing with a little more heart these past couple of weeks as a result of Jimmy’s play, while Mariota on the other hand hasn’t looked great at all as he now has 8 INTs in the past 4 games alone (3 straight sub 200 yard passing games, as well as his lowest QBR of the season last week — 15.3). The Titans are also a different team on the road (3-4 on road, as opposed to 5-1 at home), so even though the Titans are still technically playing for the playoffs, I don’t think that matters out West. On top of Mariota’s play, his health is a major question mark as well since it’s been revealed that he has been struggling through injuries that may require surgery sooner rather than later. I like the 49ers to put up more points in this rejuvenated offense, while the Titans struggle to keep up.
(Vegas Odds) - SF -2
24) — 49ers 230+ rec yards — TRUE — This Titans team ranks 23rd overall in secondary play, and are averaging 230 yards given up per game through the air on the season. Jimmy has been putting up great numbers in his first two starts at QB, and he’ll only get better and more efficient as he has more reps under Shanahan’s offense, so I think this is a great bet.
25) — 49ers 90+ rushing yards — TRUE Jimmy G has been playing great these past two weeks, and because of that it’s opening up the running game for the 49ers (they average 101 yards per game right now, which is 23rd in the league, and have gone over 100 total rushing the past two weeks). The Titans also sport a middling 15th best rush defense in the league (while giving up an average of 90 yards per game), so the opportunity is there for this team to rush for at least 90 yards at home. Even with Jimmy hitting high passing totals, this team is still getting 100+ rush yards, so that elicits confidence in this pick even if the passing game works really well.
26) — Raiders beat Cowboys — FALSE — The Cowboys’ defense is starting to surge right when the Raiders’ offense is sputtering further (just lost convincingly against one of the worst defenses in the league). Derek Carr is clearly hurting under the new offensive coordinator and he just isn’t the same player he was last season. He’s a timing-based scheme QB and needs something akin to Jared Goff with McVay in order to thrive, but their new OC isn’t utilizing Carr’s strengths properly and he’s clearly uncomfortable making throws this season (that’s not even mentioning Amari Cooper’s regression hurting this team — he will most likely not play this week as well). The Raiders also sport one of the worst all around defenses in the league, so Dallas should have no problem continuing as they have without Zeke these past two weeks. The Raiders will be desperate at home, no doubt, but the Cowboys are better in all three phases of the game and should take this in favorable West Coast weather.
(Vegas Odds) - DAL -3
27) — Raiders 250+ rec yards — FALSE — With Amari Cooper out, and the overall poor play of this offense, I just don’t see a 250+ yard day for Derek Carr. The Cowboys have been putting up better defensive performances, and that isn’t a coincidence as Sean Lee is back, as well as Awuzie (2nd round pick, CB), so Carr won’t have the easiest time this week. Especially after his performance against one of the worst secondaries in the league (211 yards, 2 INTs, 58.5% comp. rate), I don’t have confidence he’ll reach this at all.
28) —Raiders 100+ rushing yard — FALSE The Raiders have a league low of 91.5 yards per game rushing, and the Cowboys are decent against the run with Sean Lee (only 3 teams allowed to rush for over 100 with Sean Lee in the whole game). I’m also assuming the Cowboys stack the box for Beast Mode and force Carr to beat them through the air without Cooper.
29) — Raiders 2+ passing TDs — TRUE — Carr only has 4 multi-TD passing games on the season. He had 7 by this time last season. He’s just a different player in this new scheme, and without Amari Cooper as an option I don’t have a lot of confidence he’ll add to his multi-TD game total this week, but the Cowboys are giving up the most TDs to WRs this season (17), so this could go either way here. I’m taking the over and still giving Carr some credit to take advantage of our rookies in the redzone.
AFTER 2919/29
30) — Buccaneers beat Falcons — FALSE — Another consensus match-up. The Falcons are coming off of a huge win against the Saints to stay in the playoff hunt (if they win out, they win the NFC South), and if they lose a single game they could be eliminated completely, so this week will be as desperate as ever against an ailing Bucs team in Tampa. The Falcons aren’t the same team on offense as last season, but this Bucs defensive squad is just bad (31st overall, 32nd against the pass, 32nd in pass rush, 31st in yards given up on average), so with the Falcons clicking a little better as of late they should take this win handedly (even if Matt Ryan continues throwing INTs). The danger here is they should win, just like the Bengals should have beaten the Bears last week, but utterly gave up and seemed disinterested the whole game. You can’t take into account a team’s will to fight, because you have to assume it’ll be there week in and week out, so the only danger here is that the Falcons come out undisciplined and lackadaisical. I don’t think that’ll be the case here as the coaching staff and team as a whole looks primed to stay fighting.
(Vegas Odds) - ATL -6
31) — Buccaneers 250+ rec yards — TRUE — Winston gets pretty good yardage totals as long as he stays in the whole game (293 per game), so even though he makes mistakes he tends to make up for it in yardage totals. The Bucs don’t really have a running game to lean on at all, so I think this should be quite easy even though the Falcons defense is sound through the air. Winston will throw some INTs, but he’ll keep heaving it in the air drive after drive, especially when they are down later in the game.
32) — Buccaneers defense has 2+ sacks — FALSE — The Bucs are the worst pass rushing team in the entire league. They have a league low 17 total sacks on the season, and they don’t exactly scare anyone. The Falcons are the 6th ranked pass protection squad in the NFL, so it seems like a no brainer here. Anything can happen in the NFL, but the odds definitely aren’t with the Bucs on this one.
AFTER 3222/3220,250 coins
That's it for week 15.
Good luck everyone.
RECAP20,250 coins
Unbelievable game between the Patriots and Steelers, but I don't care what anyone says — that was the wrong call in the end and the Steelers should have won. Besides that, Russell Wilson couldn't muster 2 TDs and surely hurt his MVP candidacy in the process (the Seahawks got worked in Seattle — a very, very rare beat down). I can't believe the Rams dominated them that much, but I knew Gurley would go off. The Jets kept it a whole lot closer than I thought they would for most of the game, so unfortunately Brees had to keep slinging it :/ besides that we hit the 15K coin bonus at least and made 20,250 coins. Super close to another 50K, but that's the way the news goes, so we'll be back at it again next week (Thursday or Friday) and hopefully they do away with the spreads once again.
Hope someone faired better than me!
(I reserve the right to edit this after posting for clarity, and/or alter analysis if injury reports come in late)
submitted by -Paradox-11 to MaddenUltimateTeam [link] [comments]

The Degenerate Vs The Novice Chronicles - Week 3

This is a post chronicling me vs my big brother Brandon in a pick 'em pool against the spread in the NFL. I watch too much football, and he watches 1 game a year, and its for the buffet at our Super Bowl party. Oh, and to cap off how lucky this man is, every year at said party he cashes in every box pool he enters for the game, and usually wins the 50/50 draw the pub holds the day of the big game, valued typically well over $400. That's what I'm up against.
Week 2 Review There's a lot we can take from week 2. Stafford is here to play, Seattle has parchment paper for an offensive line, Trevor Siemian might be pretty freaking good, ten years later and Alex Smith can finally throw farther than 10 yards, and I am very bad at picking against the spread. I mean. I knew that, but now all of you do too.
YTD Brandon 14-15 Gary 11-18
Ravens -4 @ Jaguars
Brandon - Jaguars: The "Kitties" or going to beat the "Birdies" due to leftover pollution from the industrial revolution.. Apparently the birds are always the first to die because of air quality
Gary - Jaguars: Who have the ravens beaten? Nobody. Literally nobody. This IS a home game for the Jags despite it being in london, regardless of how many Raiders, Titans, Broncos, Falcons and Panthers jerseys are in the stands. England loves Blake Bortels. Though that may change. I'm not ready to give up on the Jags yet, and I'm fully aware this game will most likely force me too.
Broncos -3 @ Bills
Brandon - Bills: It's going to be the running of the Bills so Buffalo will cover. Because of this, I then asked him how many rushing yards - or running yards as he says - he said they will have 82. When asked why he said "because its not quite double 44." Sound logic.
Gary - Broncos: They dismantled the Cowboys last week. Hell, the defense made that O'line look absolutely silly. And that's no small feat. The Broncos aren't what we thought they were.
Steelers [email protected] Bears
Brandon - Steelers: He said that because winter is coming, the Bears are worries more about eating and bulking up for hibernation, they will be less focused on football.
Gary - Bears: This is the week they will debut their new toy, Mitch Trubisky. However it will be late 3rd quarter and they will be down by two touchdowns. But dammit he'll play. He'll probably even put up some huge garbage time numbers like my boy Blake, and that't why they will cover.
Falcons [email protected] Lions
Brandon - Falcons: He doesn't see the lions as a good team, reverting back to his logic of, in NFL Blitz 2000 they were trash.
Gary - Falcons: I hate picking this game. I like both teams. So I'm just going with my gut on this one.
Browns [email protected] Colts
Brandon - Browns: His immediate reaction was to point out how bad he knows the browns are. See Cleveland, even this football ignoramus knows how shitty your franchise is. He says if the brows are favored, then the colts must be the worst team of all time. I'm not sure he's incorrect.
Gary - Colts: So last week I said I wouldn't take the Colts if they kept throwing Tolzein out there. Well they played Brissett. So obviously they covered. With him olaying against the Browns, I see this going Indianapolis' way.
Buccaneers Pick @ Vikings
Brandon - Vikings: It's history lesson time with Brandon. If we look back in time, we see pirates, and vikings, which he calls Scandinavian pirates. We have to see what the accomplished. The pirates only have Captain Jack Sparrow. But the Vikings founded North America by first landing on the shores of Newfoundland. Also, Josh Donaldson is on that show Vikings, and he is a die hard Toronto Blue Jays Fan. Picking a football team based on your favorite baseball team. Bold strategy Brandon. Let's see if it pays off.
Gary - Buccaneers: - I really like this Bucs team. I think they could compete for the division lead this year. They looked strong last week, and I believe they will look just as strong going forward.
Texans [email protected] Patriots
Brandon - Texans: And I quote, "Fuck that, I'm taking the Texans!" He believes Texans are convinced that they are pure blooded Americans, and would have a bone to pick with a team called the Patriots. While I'm not sure his theory holds any merit keep in mind, we are Canadian and may not be 100% accurate on this one.
Gary - Patriots: Every time I pick against Brady with a big spread it boots me square in the ass. I don't like being booted in the ass, it sucks. If there's one thing I've learned in my years of gambling on football, is don't bet against Brady.
Dolphins [email protected] Jets
Brandon - Jets: First I think it should be noted that he calls the dolphins the Dan Marinos, which is much more intimidating than a dolphin if you ask me, and he calls the Jets the Whirly Birds. Second he went on a rant about how its the battle of aquatic creatures vs an airborne attacker. After what can only be described as the incoherent ramblings of a deranged individual, he landed on the jets covering because they play football on aircraft carriers, according to him.
Gary - Dolphins: Jets are trash. Next.
Giants [email protected] Eagles
Brandon - Giants: For this one he didn't say anything funny. He just looked me dead in the eyes and said he had a gut feeling. It was a very scary moment.
Gary - Eagles: Their D looked unbelievable last week against the Chiefs, they just got tired in the 4th quarter. Overworked you might say. But the Giants offensive line is not going to tire out the Eagles defense. Not only do I predict a Eagles win, but I predict Eli throws no fewer than 3 interceptions.
Saints [email protected] *Panthers
Brandon -Panthers He has a feeling its going to be a boring match up. He's avoiding a tirade about black panthers, which in his eyes, is probably for the better. He had a hard time with this one because i guess its the League of Legends world championships and he's very into e-sports.
Gary - Panthers: I had a hard time with this one. The Panthers haven't really wowed me outside of the defense. But even the Saints offense has been lackluster so far. Also, the saints are terrible in September.
Seahawks [email protected] Titans
Brandon - Titans: He noticed that both teams have alliteration in their names. Then incorrectly identifying the letter T coming before the letter. And that's why he is picking the Titans.
Gary - Titans: Seattle is on a time out. They almost lost to San Fran. That game was ugly as they come. Until, they show me they are dedicated to getting better, I will not pick them. Plus the Titans are solid.
Bengals [email protected] Packers
Brandon - Packers: He doesn't hesitate with the packers. I think he might be cheese head at heart but cant bring himself to admit it. He then said that a nine point spread is huge, so obviously they will cover. Obviously.
Gary - Packers: The Bengals haven't scored a touchdown yet. And I'm supposed to believe they are going to go into Lambo and cover a nine point spread against Aaron Rogers? No.
Side note - at this point I also am watching the League of Legends world championships. I now know how people that know literally nothing about football feel about watching a game. Kind of exciting though.
Chiefs [email protected] Chargers
Brandon - Chargers: He loves rooting against my team. I'm pretty sure that's his main motivation in this pick. He also said that he thinks they'll cover because of how small the spread is. I'm starting to think understand the concept of spreads.
Gary - Chiefs: Gary the homer strikes again. Yes I love the chiefs, and yes I recognize that the chargers are 2 kicks away from being 2-0. But there's this desire to win I'm seeing out of the Chiefs late in games. They were in nobody's top power rankings at the beginning of the season and looks like they have a desire to know the chip off their shoulder. Plus, Kareem Hunt is a monster. Bonus tip: At last check, Hunt was still 20-1 to win rookie of the year. Seems like a futures bet worth betting on.
Raiders [email protected] Redskins
Brandon - Redskins: His first reaction was to point out that a raider is a land pirate. Then made his usual pick of the Redskins, "because of racism."
Gary - Raiders: The Raiders look excellent right now. And the Washington's one win wasn't that impressive. To me this one is easy, which obviously means I'm going to lose it.
Cowboys [email protected] Cardinals
Brandon - Cowboys: He grabbed a coin. He actually flipped a coin. Heads is the cardinals, because cardinals have heads.
Gary - Cowboys: Not a fan of what Palmer is doing this year. They barely beat the Colts last week, and I had high hopes for them this year. With that said, I'm going with the Cowboys with little reluctance.
If you so choose you can follow me on the twitter machine @theGaryKozchuck. I'm also trying to figure out a way to put this in podcast for so if any of you would like something like that, then let me know so I can work more vigilantly on it. Thanks, and happy betting.
submitted by TheGaryKozchuck to sportsbook [link] [comments]

BFFL Week 7 Projections


Pos. Team Player Opponent Last Week Projection Comments.........................................
QB Buccaneers Judy Abwunza vs. Broncos 39 26 Judy has been the most pleasant surprise this season. She's in the top elite group of fantasy quarterbacks, and she singled handedly turned the Eagles defense from a feared force into a pushover pansy with her huge game. This week, she gets to face the Broncos who are notorious for giving up a lot of passing yards. Judy will feast again.
QB Raiders Eric Lebeaux vs. Rockets 13 26 The Jaguars were able to shut down Eric in the run game. The Rockets are bad at stopping the pass AND the run. Eric will run free and pass at will. He’s a great fantasy option this week.
QB Bills Debra Hannigan @ Eagles 17 25 Judy Abwunza was just able to tear up the Eagles defense for 39 fantasy points. Debra has a similar skillset to Judy, and could wreak some havoc. I won’t guarantee you 39 points, but Debra should have a fantastic game.
QB Jets Steve McNair @ Pigskins 27 24 This matchup of Jets vs. Pigskins is shaping up to be the game of the week. You already know Steve is cool under pressure and always shows up in big games. This week will be no different.
QB Jaguars Sally Dobbs @ 49ers 15 22 The 49ers have not look very good this year, and Sally is loving the matchup. She’s still a top tier fantasy quarterback, and will have an excellent day out on the field.
QB Chiefs Nestor Carpenter vs. Packers 30 22 Nestor has kicked it into high gear the last couple games, as he’s excelled through the air and on the ground. His dual threat has made him a great fantasy commodity.
QB Ponies Colin Freeburg vs. Cardinals 8 21 Colin hasn’t been able to put up good numbers for a couple weeks. However, Rich Gannon tore apart the Cardinals on Monday night for 5 touchdowns. The Ponies’ passing attack could have similar success here.
QB Rams Debby Nagasawa @ Bengals 27 21 Debby has been keeping it rolling for a while now. The Bengals have not stopped any opposing offenses from rolling. This game has tipped the scales in Debby’s favor.
QB Packers Tina Herrara @ Chiefs 5 20 Tina was supposed to blowout the lowly Redskins, but we’ll blame her poor performance on the bad weather. This week should turn into a shootout against the Chiefs. Tina will return to form this game.
QB Fishes Jocinda Smith vs. Panthers 22 19 Jocinda has been stepping it up in the run game as well as the pass game. She’s improved as the season’s gone along. This matchup with the Panthers could turn into a high scoring affair, so we think Jocinda is a pretty good option this week.
QB Pigskins Donovan McNabb vs. Jets 11 19 Donovan struggled last week against the Lions, and the Jets are no slouch either. If Donovan wants his team to have a chance in this game, he’ll have to be on his A-game.
QB Lions Renee Matthews vs. Orcas 8 18 Renee was stifled by the tough Pigskins defense. This week should be a little tamer against the Orcas, but the whole Lions offense has been in a funk and Renee will have to work extra hard to get them out of it.
QB Rockets Rich Gannon @ Raiders 33 17 Is Rich Gannon back? He had an excellent game against the Cardinals, and the Raiders are known to turns games into offensive battles. Let’s see if Rich can keep it going here.
QB Ravens Betty Houstan @ Wombats 16 16 Betty has been picking up her production a little bit the last couple weeks. I say stay with the hot hand here, even against the Wombats defense. Betty has found her groove.
QB Dolphins Liz Levin vs. Redskins 13 15 Liz had a nice game last week with 13 fantasy points. This week, we have matchup of arguably the two worst teams in the league. If Liz was ever going to have a matchup that I would highly recommend her for, it’s this one.
QB 49ers Dan Doorknob vs. Jaguars 10 15 Dan has been alright, but a matchup against the so-so Jaguars secondary could be just what he needs. He has a few tall receivers who have the advantage over the Jaguars diminutive defensive players.
QB Wombats Charlotte Allen vs. Ravens 27 15 Charlotte enjoyed her time last week beating up the worst team in the league. This week she’ll return closer to normalcy, but the Ravens have also been a common victim of other teams. Charlotte could have another good game.
QB Eagles Billy Jean Blackwood vs. Bills 12 15 Perhaps Billy Jean is starting to cool off. This week she’s facing the Bills defense which has been very up and down this year when it comes to stopping quarterbacks.
QB Panthers Zena Fromme @ Fishes 21 14 Zena had a solid game against the Jets last week, and the Fishes defense is of the same vein. There’s a lot of variability in Zena’s possible output, so you’ll be putting up a little risk if you leave her in your lineup.
QB Bengals Bert Nicholson vs. Chiefs 14 14 Bert and the Bengals have been doing alright lately (Bert and the Bengals would make a great band name though). A matchup against the scary Rams defense doesn’t leave much upside for Bert this game.
QB Redskins Stuart Sullivan @ Dolphins 0 13 This matchup of the bumbling Redskins vs. the incompetent Dolphins is going to come down to who sucks less. This means that Stuart might not actually suck this week.
QB Broncos Sharon Crowe @ Buccaneers 19 12 The Bucs were just able to shut down Billy Jean and the Eagles, so it doesn’t seem too promising for Sharon here. Her one-dimensional game may hurt her this week.
QB Cardinals Drew Bledsoe @ Ponies 8 8 Drew has been doing whatever he can to prove to us that he’s not a good fantasy quarterback. You should look elsewhere.
QB Orcas Andy Gibbons @ Lions 5 6 The Orcas offense has just been awful lately. I wouldn’t trust any of them in my starting lineup, especially Andy.


Pos. Team Opponent Last Week Projection Comments....................................................
DEF Jaguars @ 49ers 18 17 The 49ers have sputtered on offense this year, and the Jaguars will be hungry for takeaways in this matchup. They make for a very promising fantasy start.
DEF Ravens @ Wombats 10 17 The one redeeming quality of playing the Wombats is that you get to face the most sackable quarterback in the league. The Ravens might surprise us this week.
DEF Packers @ Chiefs 27 17 The Packers had one of the best games of the year feasting on the Redskins offense. This week won’t be quite as impressive, but the Chiefs have had some bad games this year. If the Packers rack up the sacks, it’ll be a long day in Kansas City.
DEF Lions vs. Orcas 6 16 The Lions did not have a good day against the Pigskins last time out, but this Sunday they get the Orcas, who have the most boring offense in the league. The Lions should capitalize on the opportunity.
DEF Fishes vs. Panthers 23 15 The Fishes had a solid outing last Sunday, and they look poised to do it again against a subpar Panthers team. The Fishes might be in the top tier of defenses this week again.
DEF Buccaneers vs. Broncos 14 15 The Buccaneers surprised us all by shutting up the Eagles. The Broncos rely on their pass game, but Sharon Crowe isn’t the quickest on her feet. The Bucs could get a lot of sacks this Sunday. They’re also really good at getting safeties for some reason.
DEF Rams @ Bengals 18 14 The Rams defense has been pretty solid, and they’re facing an average Bengals team this week. The Rams have a chance to make some noise.
DEF Wombats vs. Ravens 18 14 The Wombats took full advantage of last week’s matchup against the Dolphins. The Ravens are almost as bad, not quite as bad, but are still a good candidate for the Wombats defense to pounce on.
DEF Raiders vs. Rockets 15 14 The Raiders were able to force some turnovers against the best offense in the league. The Rockets are coming off a great game, but they were playing high above their standard. The Raiders could have a great game.
DEF Redskins @ Dolphins 6 14 Even though the Redskins held Tina Herrera to her worst game of the year, they didn’t record many defensive stats. This week, they have a better chance to do that against everyone’s favorite opponent, the Dolphins.
DEF Dolphins vs. Redskins 10 13 Welcome to the Blunder Bowl, between the worst two teams in the league. There may be a lot of mistakes between the two squads, so defenses will capitalize.
DEF Ponies vs. Cardinals 15 13 The Cardinals are coming to town and that’s a pretty good sign for the Ponies, who have a great chance to pick off Drew Bledsoe a couple times.
DEF Pigskins vs. Jets 19 12 The Pigskins had a nice time shutting down Renee Matthews and the Lions. But this is their biggest test yet: Steve McNair and the Jets. They probably won’t have a great game, but if anyone can slow down Air McNair, is this sturdy defense.
DEF Jets @ Pigskins 19 12 The Jets had a fantastic game defensively against the Panthers, but this week’s matchup is gonna be a tough one. The Pigskins won’t fall down for the Jets, so their production might not be as much.
DEF Panthers @ Fishes 7 11 The Panthers were unable to slow down Steve McNair last week. Jocinda Smith may be a little less of a challenge, but she’s still not the easiest target to sack. The Panthers will have a moderate game.
DEF Chiefs vs. Packers 9 11 The Redskins surprisingly stifled Tina Herrara last week, although it may have been due to bad weather. Can the Chiefs do the same? I wouldn’t bank on it, but it’s possible.
DEF Eagles vs. Bills 7 10 The Eagles looked all out of sorts last week. Let’s see if they can right the ship here against the Bills.
DEF Orcas @ Lions 16 10 The Lions offense has struggled at times, but they could wake up at any moment. We’d pin the Orcas in the middle tier; you could do better.
DEF Bills @ Eagles 15 9 The Bills defense is a finicky bunch. They couldn’t get much against the average Rockets, but shut down a potent Rams team. Here with the Eagles, we’re not sure what to expect. But just know that the Eagles will be hungry for a win after losing big to the Bucs.
DEF 49ers vs. Jaguars 18 8 It’s gonna be a shootout today, but the Jaguars are known to cough up the ball. However, the lack of sacks will not help the 49ers’ shot as a good starting fantasy defense.
DEF Rockets @ Raiders 17 8 That was a great game for the Rockets defense, who dominated the Cardinals. However, they’re on the road against the Raiders, who are a much scarier beast. We don’t like the Rockets’ chances in this one.
DEF Cardinals @ Ponies 8 7 The Cardinals just let the Rockets run all over them, and the Ponies are even more skilled on the offensive side of the ball. Stay far away from this one.
DEF Bengals vs. Rams 5 6 It’s been a rough season for the Bengals defense so far, and I don’t think a matchup with the Rams is a good idea. It could be another long day for the orange and black.
DEF Broncos @ Buccaneers 9 2 The Buccaneers are this week’s opponent, and they just decimated what we thought was a good defense. What are they going to do to what we know is a bad defense? Don’t even think about starting the Broncos defense.

Running Backs and Wide Receivers

Pos. Team Player Opponent Last Week Projection Comments.................................................
RB/WR 49ers Frankie McDoogle vs. Jaguars 23 27 Frankie had an excellent game last week, and he’s poised for more. He’s a tall, fast receiver that the Jaguars cannot keep up with. Frankie is gonna have a huge game, you heard it here first.
WR Rockets Mindy Weaver @ Raiders 32 26 That’s better. Mindy rebounded from 2 points to score 32 points. This week against the Raiders, she has another juicy matchup as the Raiders like to just score more than you and don’t care about how much offense they allow. Mindy is a solid start once again.
RB/WR Wombats Vicki Kawaguchi vs. Ravens 26 24 Vicki has been one of the hottest fantasy players lately, averaging nearly 32 points over her last 4 games. It looks pretty likely that she’ll continue that trend this week against a cruddy Ravens defense.
RB/WR Ponies Horace Young vs. Cardinals 13 22 Horace didn’t have quite the amazing game we were expecting, but he could certainly get it this week against a struggling Cardinals’ defense. Horace is the man and needs to be in your lineup.
RB/WR Raiders Armon Hammerstein vs. Rockets 33 20 Right now you are probably a really happy owner if Armon is on your fantasy team. Keep him in that lineup.
RB/WR Redskins Jimmy Rockfish @ Dolphins 13 20 We know that Jimmy is the main beneficiary in the Redskins offense, and he’ll be profiting more than ever against a horrible Dolphins team. If the Redskins want to snag a win, they’ll give the ball to Jimmy all day.
RB/WR Bengals Oliver Ramierez vs. Rams 23 20 Nothing can slow down Oliver except himself, and he doesn’t play defense.
WR Chiefs Neal Smith @ Bengals 29 20 Neal Smith has been spectacular lately as the Chiefs offense has finally found their rhythm. They’ll need Neal to show up big against the Packers, and I don’t think he will disappoint.
WR Dolphins Kim Esposito vs. Redskins 30 19 My goodness, Kim came out of nowhere to drop 30 points last week. She has boom potential again as the Dolphins-Redskins came could go either way with two bad teams playing each other. Get this girl in your lineup.
WR Ponies Evan Lindstrom vs. Cardinals 12 18 We’ve been promising an Evan breakout game for a couple weeks now, but maybe THIS is the week. The Cardinals just let 2nd string WR Daisy Dewchester score 33 points on them, maybe Evan could put up a similar game.
WR Bills Austin Carpenter @ Eagles 12 18 Austin was held to “only” 12 points, but you can’t keep him down for very long. If the Bills want to win this one, they’ll have to pass to Austin early and often. I’d expect a big game from the little Carpenter.
WR 49ers J.J. Shetland vs. Jaguars 8 17 If the 49ers are gonna keep up with the Jaguars, they’ll need to exploit the Jaguars’ secondary. With tall receivers like Frankie and J.J., passing the ball high and deep may be their best option. It could become a shootout, and you might want both these receivers in your lineup.
WR Packers Maria Luna @ Chiefs 14 17 Maria is losing too many opportunities to the other receivers on her team. She’s still the number one target, but she hasn’t really separated herself in a while. We’re waiting for her next big game.
WR Cardinals Ernie Steele @ Ponies 10 17 Ernie had his worst week last Monday, which is still a double-digit game. He’s a better play this week against a Raiders team in a matchup that will necessitate a shootout.
WR Fishes Nellie O’Neal vs. Panthers 9 17 Nellie should have a feast facing off against a sluggish Panthers defense.
RB Jaguars Gretchen Hasselhoff @ 49ers 28 16 Gretchen exploded last week for nearly 30 points. This week against the 49ers, she should have plenty of chances to excel. However, the Jaguars will probably employ the pass game more than the run game.
WR Panthers Susie Townshend @ Fishes 36 16 Susie has been phenomenal this year, she’s definitely the favorite target of Zena Fromme. Will an opposing defense focus all their efforts on covering her?
RB/WR Rams Knuckles McGhee @ Bengals 16 16 Knuckles is the top target, and the Bengals have been ceremonially obliterated the last couple weeks. It could be another good game for McGhee.
WR 49ers Lola Linkletter vs. Jaguars 0 15 Lola Linkletter is getting her chance to make something happen as starting running back against the Jaguars. We know that whatever RB faces the Jaguars has a possibility to go off, so Lola may be worth the gamble this week.
RB/WR Jets Georgette Washington @ Pigskins 20 15 Georgette is key to the Jets success. She’s been a workhorse all season. In what may be their toughest game yet, Georgette will need to step it up if she wants to lead her team to victory. However, the Pigskins are a tough defense so there’s always a chance she doesn’t get it going.
WR Jets Karen Donato @ Pigskins 29 15 Karen is on fire! In her last 3 games she is averaging 23 points. Steve McNair likes what he sees when Karen is open. I think they’ll need her to stay hot in this tense matchup, so you can be confident plugging her into your lineup again.
WR Jaguars Amir Khan @ 49ers 12 15 Amir is a model of consistency. You know what you’re gonna get with him. The good news is that if he breaks his consistent streak, it will be with a blowout game and not an 0-fer.
WR Panthers Daphne Farrington @ Fishes 12 15 Daphne is another one of those curious cases where she either scores double digits or nothing. This week against the Fishes could turn into a shootout, so we'll ink Daphne in double digits yet again.
WR Buccaneers Baloney Maloney vs. Broncos 5 15 Where has Baloney been? He’s not the same receiver he once was. Hopefully he has a bounce-back week this game against a Broncos defense that has been kind to opposing offenses.
WR Buccaneers Ray Tran vs. Broncos 21 15 Ray Tran had a huge game last week! But he’s another one of those unpredictable 2nd receivers. He could have another nice game this Sunday as the Buccaneers play the hapless Broncos defense.
RB/WR Pigskins Isaac Drummond vs. Jets 15 15 Isaac has had two straight subpar games (by his standards). He will have to come back in a big way if the Pigskins want to beat the Jets. Isaac has some good breakout potential this week.
WR Broncos Pickles Peterson @ Buccaneers 34 15 Pickles had an outstanding game last week putting up a monster 34. This week he has to face the Buccaneers who just shut down the Eagles. They might shut down the Broncos too, but you never want to bet against Pickles.
WR Rockets Daisy Dewchester @ Raiders 33 15 Woah Daisy! She came out of nowhere to put up a huge game on Monday night. I’m pretty sure 33 points is her maximum, but perhaps this game is an indicator of her turning the corner for the rest of the season. At least, you’d hope for that if she’s on your team. The Raiders do give up a lot of yards.
WR Jaguars Cade McNown @ 49ers 13 14 Cade returned to normal last game, which is still pretty good. He’s one of the few fantasy players with 10+ points every week, and there’s no reason to suggest that that streak won’t continue.
WR Eagles Nickie Noodleson vs. Bills 14 14 Nickie was the only Eagle to have anything against the Buccaneers. He’s definitely the best option out of the Eagles right now, and that trend will continue this week.
WR Bills Belinda Winters @ Eagles 10 14 Belinda returned to double digits after a two-week slide. The Buccaneers just got done thrashing the Eagles, will the Bills do the same? It’s possible. I’d say Belinda has upside this week but isn’t a sure bet.
RB Jaguars Ashley Webber @ 49ers 11 12 Ashley might get some chances to break loose if the Jaguars get and maintain a big early lead on the Niners.
WR Packers Dolores Lucio @ Chiefs 6 12 Last week Christy had a better game than Dolores, so naturally this week it’s probably Dolores who’s gonna have the better outing. Although nobody can say for sure.
WR Lions Annie Frazier vs. Orcas 14 12 Annie has solidified her spot in front of Florence Jackson on the depth chart. She’s been the main target for a while and that doesn’t seem to be changing any time soon…(knock on wood)
WR Ravens Vanna Steinman @ Wombats 12 12 Vanna came back down to earth after a 40 point performance. 12 points is about the norm for her, I’d say.
WR Raiders Pete Montoya vs. Rockets 15 12 Pete has been picking it up the last couple weeks. He’s earned the trust of Eric Lebeaux and is a more appealing fantasy start because of it.
RB/WR Lions Florence Jackson vs. Orcas 10 11 Unfortunately, Florence has not been the stud that she was projected to be at the start of the season. However, she is good for a low-end double-digit output almost every week. So, if you don’t have any reliable options for double-digit games, Florence will still be effective in your lineup.
WR Pigskins Hank Wilson vs. Jets 11 11 Hank might have found his niche as the Pigskins’ second receiver. The ‘Skins will need all the offense they can get against this Jets squad, so Hank Wilson is expected to be involved.
WR Dolphins Kristi Yeoh vs. Redskins 11 10 Kristi is a curious case. Three weeks, she scored 0. The other three weeks, she put up double digits. Which one will it be this week? I would bet on double digits, as the Dolphins and Redskins will finally get a chance to show off their offense, since they’re each playing a cruddy defense.
WR Jaguars Ronny Dobbs @ 49ers 17 10 Ronny is too up and down to be trusted every week, but he’s always a good gamble due to his tremendous upside in the Jaguars passing game. So it’s always a roll of the dice if you go with Ronny in your lineup.
WR Wombats Victor Jones vs. Ravens 32 10 Victor is perhaps the most frustrating fantasy player this season. So far this year, when he doesn’t score 0, he scores at least 14. Unfortunately, he scores 0 just about as much as he scores double digits. The Ravens seem like a favorable matchup but we can’t be certain with Victor.
WR Eagles Nutzy Nussbaum vs. Bills 2 10 This game is hard to predict, as both the Bills and the Eagles have shown flashes of greatness and droughts of disappointment. But as with most fantasy receiver, it’ll come down to who snags the touchdowns. Nutzy has a chance, but he’s no sure bet.
WR Broncos Star Moonbeam @ Buccaneers 11 10 The Buccaneers manhandled the Eagles last week, and look to do the same to the Broncos. However, Star is always a good fantasy start because of her potential for long touchdowns.
WR Cardinals Brett Favre @ Ponies 14 9 Brett had a nice game last week which included a touchdown. He’s another touchdown-dependent receiver, and Drew Bledsoe isn’t having too much success in the passing game for Favre’s benefit. He’s a risky play this week.
WR Fishes Michelle Hall vs. Panthers 27 9 Michelle had a huge game last week…which probably means she’ll get jack squat this Sunday.
RB/WR Rams Winky Wojohowitz @ Bengals 13 9 Winky was able to sneak into the endzone last game. I’d love to say I predicted it, but it’s so hard to know what Winky is gonna do in any given week. He’s always a risky play.
WR Buccaneers Needle Haystack vs. Broncos 5 8 Needle seems to be involved in the offense, but it varies from week to week. He’s a better option than usual this week, though, as the Broncos have been known to give up a lot of yards.
WR Wombats Travis Diamond vs. Ravens 8 8 Travis had a respectable 8 points last week, which seems to be about his potential. Sitting behind two solid receivers on the depth chart, he is not a likely candidate to have a huge game.
RB Panthers Tiffany Bosworth @ Fishes 4 8 Tiffany has proved herself as the Panthers top rusher. However, the Panthers are still a pass-first team.
WR Bengals Mark Epstein vs. Rams 7 8 Mark had a single catch last week for less than 10 yards, but at least it was a touchdown. Mark has been limited to making cameo appearances in the Bengals offense.
WR Redskins Esther French @ Dolphins 1 8 Esther might see some more action today in the Blunder Bowl against the Dolphins. She’s a good candidate for a sneaky touchdown.
RB Lions Junior Seau vs. Orcas 7 7 Junior had a substantial amount of yardage last week. One of these days, he’s gonna get into the end zone. Are you ballsy enough to start Junior in hopes of that outcome? Because I don’t think I would be.
RB/WR Chiefs Rose Watson vs. Packers 0 7 Rose is a very unreliable fantasy option, but the Chiefs offense has been improving lately. You never know when she’ll get back in the action.
RB/WR Raiders Terrell Davis vs. Rockets 0 7 Terrell is gonna get back in the action on Sunday against the Rockets. He has the potential for a touchdown or more, but it all depends on if the Raiders decide to run or pass more. If they pass more, this benefits TD.
WR Packers Christy McTavish @ Chiefs 12 6 Christy was able to steal a touchdown away from somebody else on her team. The reverse might happen this week, because I’m never sure who gets the targets besides Maria.
RB Cardinals Marcus Weiss @ Ponies 10 6 Marcus is still rushing, so it seems! He has two straight weeks with a touchdown, but as soon as he doesn’t score one, he’s not very valuable as a fantasy option.
RB/WR Eagles Jevon Kearse vs. Bills 3 6 Jevon’s production the last two weeks has trailed off with scores of 8 and 3. Here’s to hoping he can bring it back against the Bills, but he’s definitely in a slump right now.
WR Pigskins Tony Delvecchio vs. Jets 0 6 Tony is highly unpredictable as the third ranked receiver on this Pigskins squad. In this tough matchup against the Jets, we’d expect Tony to stay on the line blocking rather than line up as a receiver.
RB Bengals George Anderson vs. Rams 6 6 George is only a good fantasy option when he reaches the endzone. When he doesn’t, he’s only a desperation flex.
WR Jaguars Jay Hawk @ 49ers 4 5 Jay has his moments, but usually only one of them per game. It’s his lack of volume that makes him an unreliable fantasy product.
RB Dolphins Olivia Harris vs. Redskins 2 5 Olivia wasn’t able to get anything going during last week’s contest, but she’s still the Dolphins’ top running option and the Redskins aren’t looking very good.
WR Ravens Mikey Tice @ Wombats 2 5 Mikey has only limited upside in a Ravens offense that struggles to get the ball down the field.
WR Orcas Reese Worthington @ Lions 0 5 PSA: The Orcas suck. Move on.
WR Orcas Rainbow Callahan @ Lions 9 5 PSA: The Orcas suck. Move on.
RB/WR Orcas Ricky Williams @ Lions 0 5 PSA: The Orcas suck. Move on.
WR Jets Leah Wayne @ Pigskins 7 4 Leah will probably be needed on the offensive line as the Pigskins have a swarming defense. She won’t get many looks as a receiver.
RB Packers Cynthia Miller @ Chiefs 1 4 Cynthia is a talented running back, but Tina eats up most of the yardage on the ground.
RB Buccaneers Tom Getz vs. Broncos 12 4 Tom had a nice little game last week! He has the potential to be a great running back, the Buccaneers need to be willing to let him run.
WR Broncos Petunia Young @ Buccaneers 1 4 Petunia hasn’t seen much action the past two weeks, are the Broncos moving on from her? Will she need to block more against this scary Bucs defense?
RB/WR Redskins Stephanie Morgan @ Dolphins 2 4 Stephanie might get a chance today as the Dolphins defense has more holes than swiss cheese.
RB Chiefs Fred Benson vs. Packers 2 4 Fred gets a little bit here and there, but nothing extraordinary.
RB Chiefs James Zorn vs. Packers 9 4 James Zorn is just kinda…there. Not sure exactly what he does here.
RB Jets Kiesha Phillips @ Pigskins 1 3 Kiesha is still the second or third string running back here.
RB Ponies Kimmy Eckman vs. Cardinals 0 3 Last week proved to us that Kimmy’s 22-outburst was definitely a fluke.
RB Panthers Kate Schwartz @ Fishes 2 3 Kate is not a red zone threat, just a change of pace back.
RB Rams Patsy Clinehurst @ Bengals 0 3 Patsy didn’t get any chances last week, and whatever she’s going to get this week won’t be substantial enough to warrant a fantasy start.
RB Rams King Kirby @ Bengals 16 3 King finally played like one, catching not one, but two touchdowns last game! I’d be surprised if he can keep that up, but he’s a very unpredictable player.
RB/WR Rockets Mikey Thomas @ Raiders 0 3 Mikey was absent from last week’s offense as they were having so much success with him blocking. It may stay that same way, if it’s the winning formula.
RB Rockets Mike Schwartz @ Raiders 6 3 Mike only gets a couple touches here and there and isn’t worth a roster spot.
RB/WR Fishes Carlos Ocampo vs. Panthers 3 3 Carlos is hard to predict. He plays running back, wide receiver, and offensive line, and can’t really decide which position is his main one. As it is, he’s only a guarantee for a couple points.
RB Fishes Mohammed Springsteen vs. Panthers 0 3 Mohammed needs to be unleashed! But Jocinda is too focused on passing deep.
RB Buccaneers Yasmin Kristov vs. Broncos 0 2 I think Yasmin’s only role with the ball on this team is kick returns, and in Backyard Football it’s nearly impossible to return one of those for a touchdown.
RB Dolphins Marky Dubois vs. Redskins 3 2 Marky was looking good as the Dolphins’ running back, but Olivia Harris has since taken over his role.
WR Bills Craig David @ Eagles 0 2 Craig still belongs on the fantasy bench, unfortunately. This Bills offense is a triangle of Debra, Austin, and Belinda.
RB Bills Dwight Frye @ Eagles 0 2 The Bills have hinted at changing up their game plan by involving more players in the running game. I don’t think it will turn anybody into a fantasy stud, though.
RB Bengals Fred Sanders vs. Rams 1 2 Fred is a pretty finicky fantasy play, he’s nearly interchangeable with George Anderson.
RB Bills Lance Lundergaard @ Eagles 0 2 The Bills have hinted at changing up their game plan by involving more players in the running game. I don’t think it will turn anybody into a fantasy stud, though.
RB Pigskins Hans R. Dirtywashum vs. Jets 1 2 Our campaigned worked for Marcus Weiss to start at running back, we should campaign for Hans next!
WR Ravens Stinky Steiner @ Wombats 0 2 Stinky is very unreliable. Now I know where he got his nickname from.
RB Ravens Pablo Sanchez @ Wombats 0 2 Poor Pablo. He should stick to baseball.
RB Raiders Joshua Marriott vs. Rockets 16 2 Joshua will be back to his seldom-used position. Not a viable fantasy option.
RB Pigskins Jane Davis vs. Jets 0 2 Jane had her time but she’s fallen down the depth chart.
RB Wombats Amy Bostwick vs. Ravens 2 1 Amy is one of those “running backs” on a team that passes it 90% of the time.
RB Cardinals Dmitri Petrovich @ Ponies 0 1 Dmitri is mainly used a blocker these days and isn’t a good option on your fantasy team.
RB Cardinals Omar Stephano @ Ponies 1 1 Omar is not worth much more than 1 point these days.
RB Eagles Lisa Crocket vs. Bills 2 1 Lisa is the odd girl out in this offense. And that’s not just because she’s an odd girl.
RB Broncos Brace-Face Brixton @ Buccaneers 1 1 The Broncos are definitely a pass first team.
RB Broncos Jay Canasta @ Buccaneers 0 1 The Broncos are definitely a pass first team.
RB 49ers Lulu Legosi vs. Jaguars 0 0 Lulu is gonna be stuck on the offensive line this week.
RB Packers Erin Lopez @ Chiefs 0 0 Erin had one good week but hasn’t been a big part of the Packers offense since. I think it’s safe to put her back in the list of 0’s down here.
RB Redskins Luanne Lui vs. Packers 0 0
RB Ponies David Wilco @ 49ers 0 0
RB Wombats Cathy Benitez vs. Ravens 1 0
RB Wombats Paul Applebaum vs. Ravens 0 0
RB Ravens Ramona Bennett vs. Broncos 0 0
RB Bengals Wing Kwan vs. Chiefs 0 0
RB Dolphins Greg Bonnell vs. Redskins 0 0
RB 49ers Karla Karloff vs. Jaguars 0 0
RB Rockets Clarice Reid @ Raiders 0 0
RB Lions June O’Shea @ Pigskins 0 0
RB Redskins Cullen Sullivan vs. Packers 0 0
RB Chiefs Spanky Simpson @ Bengals 4 0
RB Raiders Olive Hussein @ Jaguars 0 0
RB Orcas Julio Henderson @ Fishes 1 0
RB Orcas Ben None @ Fishes 0 0
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Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Free Picks and Predictions 9/16/18 2019 NFL Season - Week 9 - (Prediction) - Jets at Dolphins NFL 2020 Predictions and Preview AFC East  Bills - Dolphins - Patriots - Jets Dolphins vs Jets Week 14 Preview  Free NFL Predictions & Betting Odds Dolphins vs NY Jets (2019) Prediction  NFL Week 14 Football Betting Picks  Miami vs New York (NYJ)

Jets vs Dolphins Picks, Predictions, Week 9 Odds 11/3/2019 by Josh Schonwald - 10/29/2019 Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins host the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, November 3 The Miami Dolphins (3-9) face the New York Jets (4-8) in a Week 14 clash at MetLife Stadium. Kickoff is just after 1 p.m. ET Sunday. We analyze the Dolphins-Jets odds and betting lines while providing betting tips and advice around this Week 14 NFL matchup. The Dolphins are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last four road games. Betting on the New York Jets (4-8) The Jets’ fuel finally ran out. After winning two games in a row, the Jets became the Cincinnati Bengals’ first victim of the season, as they lost to Andy Dalton and company on the road last Sunday, 22-6. The Jets and the Dolphins are +100000 and +300000 to win Super Bowl, respectively. Click here to make your NFL picks. Betting Preview for the New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins NFL Regular Season Week 9 Game on November 3, 2019. Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens. When: Sunday, November 3, 2019, 1:00 PM ET The New York Jets (4-8), led by quarterback Sam Darnold and running back Le’Veon Bell, meet the Miami Dolphins (3-9), led by quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, in a Week 14 NFL football game on

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Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Free Picks and Predictions 9/16/18

NFL Betting Predictions, Tips and Odds for the AFC East: The 2020 NFL regular season will kick off on Thursday, September 10th and The Prez, Ralph Michaels, and Matt "Mid Major Matt" Josephs take ... The 1-6 Jets travel to Miami, Florida to face off against the 0-7 Dolphins in Week 9's tank match. Jets lead the all time series 54-52-1. The Dolphins are 5-1 in the last 3 seasons against the Jets. Jimmy, Donnie and Whale Capper preview the week 14 matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets. Catch their betting predictions and best plays on this game. NFL picks predictions from between Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Receive free picks daily from all the major sports. Also offe... Dolphins vs NY Jets (2019) Prediction NFL Week 14 Football Betting Picks Miami vs New York (NYJ) ... Sports Betting Picks and Tips 1,646 views. New; 44:57.