Has anyone tried doing a league for MMA on draft kings? If so do you get to choose how many fight cards you do in a season/year? And Do you have to keep betting every card? Or can you just have one pot of winnings for the season?
Notes: These new panelists were just added this year. Whenever UFC launched the update that made it difficult as fruck for fans to actually find the panelists individual ranking lists. Conclusions: After researching all of the journalists to make this post I'd say the most suspect is Romain Cadot(Vladusport) - which doesn't appear to be a real person. Christoffer Esping is also suspect, as he owns a shoe company - that is it. Brian Hemminger of MMA Oddsbreaker is also suspect, as he works for an actual Oddsmaker - that is such a clear conflict of interest that there might actually be some legal implications that the UFC could get caught up in if the rankings can ever be proven to directly impact betting lines. This is such a giant oversight I can't believe that the UFC legal team hasn't already nixed this. I'm not even saying that Brian's rankings are corrupt or unreasonable - just that him working for an actual legitimate MMA oddsmaker is a big "How The Fuck Did The UFC Let This Happen" moment. Both of the MMA Weekly guys seem to be trolling their rankings - or they are just that inept. Jeff Cain didn't even bothering updating his rankings for this week...and he rarely ever does, maybe he'll update once every other month or so, and sometimes he'll rank fighter who have been cut, retired, or inactive, meanwhile Ken Pishna is a fucking UFC shill who did exactly what the UFC told him to do in their little sparknotes memo!
TLDR: I recently created a UFC web app that allows users to interactively and comprehensively explore UFC 251 fight outcome probabilities, comprehensive historical statistics, and daily fantasy sports performances for all fighters/bouts on the card. I imagine this tool would be useful to any MMA fans who enjoy the quantitative side of the sport, as well as anyone into betting or DFS looking to do their own research. https://natelatshaw.shinyapps.io/ufc_fight_night_statistical_companion/ The goal of the web app is to provide users with a comprehensive set of tools to facilitate in-depth research on all fighters on the upcoming UFC card. The app is updated regularly to always show the upcoming UFC event. The first feature allows users to build their own Tale of the Tape. Choose any bout on the card and then select from over 100 statistics to create your own custom Tale of the Tape. This tool includes options for fighter characteristics, historical fight outcomes, as well as stats on offensive & defensive striking, offensive & defensive wrestling/grappling, and DraftKings & FanDuel fantasy points. Choose as many stats as you'd like from each category and instantly create a side-by-side comparison like the example below. https://preview.redd.it/vfoztmt5w0a51.png?width=1972&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d119da22774a6028b6a3a6b472292e0d268decd Next is odds-implied fight outcome probabilities for the entire card. The figure below shows all outcomes on a single plot, but other figures are available that only show win probability or knockout probability (with the actual probabilities at the end of the bars so you don't have to guess), as examples. These probabilities typically come out a few days before the fight night and are regularly updated up until the start of the first fight. https://preview.redd.it/hfudc87cw0a51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b9a6c722fe065489ce938006ba0e4461eae044b Detailed historical statistics are also available. The figure below shows the UFC history of Masvidal. This figure contains a lot of information, almost all of which may be swapped out for something else. You can change the fighter, the statistic, the scaling of the statistic, what information is displayed at the end of each bar, other visual parameters, and much more. https://preview.redd.it/41rvcr2fw0a51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e6effb4baa62887872ab5060047c978f99b1512 In addition to looking at a single fighter's UFC career, you can also select a bout and compare the UFC careers of each fighter. The figure below compares the striking pace of Volkanovski and Holloway and allows for comparison to the average Featherweight pace. Like the prior figure, this one also allows for nearly all parameters to be changed at the user's discretion. https://preview.redd.it/h9g6go1iw0a51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae39f78b31e94478072873fbea5b99d43746404a Next, for the DFS fans, the same tools that created the preceding two figures are also available for DFS-specific statistics for DraftKings, FanDuel, and PrizePicks. The figure below shows Aldo's historical DraftKings performances, but much more detailed perturbations are available. As an example, you can filter this figure down to DraftKings points earned from grappling/wrestling per minute and then compare how any fighter does in wins vs losses and how his/her opponent does in that same category. As a research tool for building your lineups, I believe this is much more valuable than just looking at each fighter's average fantasy points. https://preview.redd.it/a4cof91nw0a51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=d65ff3d92a57c301380270d3752b22b81fa37b0a Hopefully it's clear that there's a pretty comprehensive suite of tools here for anyone interested in taking a deep-dive into the stats of those on the upcoming UFC card. The last figure I'll show below is a simple high-level overview of the main card comparing striking pace to accuracy. https://preview.redd.it/cnpilkwpw0a51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=36d905c87a6b02457a963edc4b275868fc820bdb The final point I'd like to emphasize is that all figures are downloadable through the click of a button and ready to be shared here on Reddit or on Twitter or any other media. Many sports have had recent analytics revolutions, but I haven't seen too much growth in MMA, certainly not when compared to that of the more mainstream American sports. As the capabilities of this app continue to expand, I hope it can play a small part in that growth.
Hamilton's problem with vehicle noise (modified muffler/exhaust)
**EDITED*\* (edit notes at the top, for visibility) EDIT 1: It's been brought to my attention that this post reflects a relatively privileged perspective (given the more serious problems so many people are facing), and that some of the language used is immature and unhelpful. I'd like to acknowledge that both of these are true. In the case of the language, I believe (hope) that it reflects temporary frustration more than actual immaturity. So while I stand behind the tone and general content of the post, I am somewhat ashamed of some of the wording choices. EDIT 2: Regarding "car culture" — I have no problem with it, and in certain ways it's quite interesting. I will admit to not properly understanding it. But my view is that we shouldn't need to. Most of us don't understand knitting culture or beekeeping culture or skydiving culture either, but this lack of understanding isn't problematic, as none of these cultures are nonconsensually injected into our daily lives. Car culture is a bit different in that sense. So the argument is not against car culture, or even against the simple existence of modified vehicles; it's against selfish behaviour, and it's about the impact of this behaviour. (For this reason as well, whether an exhaust system is 'legal' or not has no bearing on the discussion.) And the post speculates (perhaps misguidedly; Hanlon's Razor likely applies here), about the reasons for the behaviour. ----- Oh, this may go a bit long. (TL;DR at the end.) Apologies for length, but I have so many thoughts & questions about the vehicle noise problem in this city. (And an unreasonable amount of free time today.) The proposed initiative by city council to target drivers with modified mufflers/exhaust systems is long overdue. It's a step in the right direction. But the actual problem starts long before a vehicle's exhaust is actually modified, and this is what I hope to end up discussing here, along with whether or not it's a real problem for Hamilton.(Although the adult discussion follows a bit of a rant, if you'll entertain it...) Example: HDB In our neighbourhood, there is one guy a few of us have come to refer to as the Head Dbag (HDB), if you'll forgive the salty (while perfectly fitting) nomenclature. In my mind, at least, when all the DBs gather, HDB brings the meeting to order, collects DB dues, proposes key motions, reprimands lower-tier DBs for being too quiet or too thoughtful, and so on. Frankly, I don't envy the responsibility. Anyway, he is dubbed the HDB because his car is the loudest car. Excluding official vehicles with sirens and various commercial aircraft and those rock crushers used in diamond mining pits (though, to be fair, at this point we're toe-ing the 'vehicle' line pretty liberally), it is easily the loudest vehicle I have ever heard. The volume is almost magnificent in its ridiculousness. He wins. HDB completely wins. If you live around here, you know him. You've heard him. He drives a Mustang (because of course), which he paints seasonally, likely whenever he feels his personality has gone stale. Currently bright orange, though in the past it's been bright blue, black/white, camouflage (because of course; war is cool), other colours. Not only will you know when he's in your neighbourhood, you'll know when he's on the nearest highway. And he gets that sweet puppy from 0 to ~90 (my guess) on the residential streets around here within about 4-5 seconds. Every single time. Really, every single time. Because true morons have this wonderful superpower — they're capable of being entertained endlessly by the exact same thing. I can only imagine he plays a solitary Michael Bay movie on infinite repeat at home. Anyway, I have no idea where he goes, but I know he is needed there fast. I imagine either Taco Bell coupons are expiring faster and faster these days, or the courthouse closes early a lot. Hamilton cops of reddit: If you want to bag (or re-bag) a prime DB trophy for your mantle, sit near the intersection of Mt. Albion Rd & Greenhill Ave on any weekday between 7:30 & 8am. I can guarantee a speeding violation, and likely a number of other violations as well. Listen for the sound of an angry, coked-up lawnmower. When you hear it, you'll have at least 3 minutes to compose yourself, prep the radar gun, stretch your ticket-writing hand, and so forth. Then be on the lookout for a bright orange prosthetic ween in the shape of a Mustang. You're welcome. (And then return the next morning to repeat, please.) This guy doesn't strike me as the fast-learnin' sort, but once we get up into double-digit demerit point level, the light may start to dawn. Anyway, I digress. This isn't really about HDB. He's one of hundreds of such dimwits in the city. So it's about the problem in general. And in fairness, I suppose we should assign these people a better acronym. Perhaps not all of them are true, card-carrying DBs? We'll use the less judgmental GwMM ("Guys with Modified Mufflers"). Are you a GwMM? So many questions... (if you'renota GwMM, scroll way down below for the adult discussion) Let's turn the tables for a moment. A genuine curiosity: GwMM, if you lived next door, and I consistently practised my yodeller's rendition of Mongolian throat-singing at 180dB, outside every morning at 3am, what would you do? What would you want me to do? Really, try to imagine it: You've just polished off the last Coors. You've flipped off the TV after watching the evening's top-rated MMA fight. You're all caught up on your Fox News feed. Your tracksuit and gold chains have been removed and set aside for the night. You're exhausted. You finally drift off to sleep, and are mid-dream (you know, the one where you're being interviewed on E! for your world-renowned pickup artistry skills), and then BAM! — I interrupt you at 180dBs. Every f-ing night. Sincerely — what's your move? What would you do? Who would you talk to about it the next day? Which authorities would you involve? Something must be done, right? It can't go on! If you're one of these people, a GwMM, do you... almost get it? Kinda-sorta? (Yes, I know most of the actual GwMMs won't read any of this, or will read it but won't be able to absorb it. But maybe it reaches just one GwMM, a guy who's modified his exhaust but is otherwise on the fence between being a normal adult and a flagrant purveyor of doucheism. Maybe just one person.) GwMMs, you should understand something — the impression you think you're creating, and the one you're actually delivering, are vastly different. As you drive by, here is what most of us think about you (a non-exhaustive list):
You need attention. This is the easy one, the most obvious, and I would think the most inarguable. You need it badly enough to actually pay for it — with your time or your money, or both. Those mufflers aren't free, and they don't install themselves. Know that the need for attention is a weakness. Watch American Gangster. There's a great scene in which Denzel's charater explains that "the loudest guy in the room is the weakest guy in the room". It's a weakness because you're always in need of something from other people: you need their approval. But in your case, GwMM, you don't just need it from your family or friends or colleagues, which is relatively normal; you need it from absolute strangers, from everyone you pass as you drive. This is unbearably sad. The need for attention makes you desperate, and therefore to be pitied.
You're compensating for someting. This one writes itself. You may or may not be. But you should know that many of us strongly suspect this, as you drive by. I would bet on it being one of the highest factors. In fact, I bet it would have actual predictive value in a formula. The higher the number, the more likely to be a GwMM:
none (i.e., female) = 0 (I know, I know; more on this below)
large = 1
medium = 2
small = 3
teensy = 4
"button on a fur coat" = 5
You're emotionally under-developed. You are using toddler-level social signaling tactics. You're flashing your loud, shiny toys around in a bid to earn friends or mates. Trust us on this: As you roar by, there are precisely zero women thinking, "Ooooooh, get me an Uber, I am just way too wet to walk home right now. I need to bear your offspring! Enter me now, I require your seed!!" And so on. Also, no man is thinking, "I need to be friends with that guy, like, yesterday!" You may, admittedly, be impressing the odd teenager.
Your relationship, if you have one, isn't going well. Because of a combination of the three points above, it simply can't be. When you're that self-focused, there's no mindspace left to give your partner what they need. When your need for attention is that high, any relationship will be lopsided. And in general, most halfway intelligent women have little interest in being with emotionally needy, socially embryonic 'men'.
You're uneducated (or under-educated). There is nothing inherently wrong with this. I'm sure you've done the best you could. But it's not something most people are eager to shout from the rooftops (/tailpipe). And feel free to be angry about the assumption, and the stereotype, but let's be honest — your average pediatrician, for example, isn't driving a Civic Type R with a plastic 6ft spoiler and 150dB-tuned exhaust, or a lifted pickup with six chrome XXL tailpipes for "performance"\. We know you could tell us your favourite athlete but not your favourite author or documentarian. We know you think a Monster Energy Drink and a hot dog is a valid adult meal. In short, you're a halfwit. And halfwits, well, tend to be poorly educated. And again, while there's nothing *necessarily wrong with this, it's a sad thing to want everyone to know, as you drive around the city.
\* I hate this argument. GwMMs, you can stop pretending you need the modified exhaust for better "performance". I don't doubt the improved airflow can maximize horsepower or whatever, but for what purpose? You're not rescuing a herd of Chechen refugee infants from a burning orphanage; you're trying to meet your bros at Jack Astor's before all the 'good' sides get defrosted and sold out.
You're probably not doing well financially. This is related to the one above, but isn't quite the same. When you put a $2,000 aftermarket exhaust on a car worth $8,000, you're signalling to most of us that you're probably a financial moron. When you drive a lifted $90,000 truck with an obnoxiously loud exhaust, we know you've financed it at 7.99% over 96 months and can barely afford the payments (and we think that before we see you idling it outside Cash Money) — because low-grade behaviour in general usually correlates with dumb financial behaviour. As with the item above, doing poorly in this area shouldn't be a source of shame for anyone, but you should know that when you rev by at 150dB, you're undermining your attempt to look 'money' in that $90k truck.
You're on your way to do something imbecilic. I promise you, no one is left with the impression that you're racing off to perform surgery, or to re-test your lab results, or to refine the last chapter of your treatise on human rights abuses in Malaysia. We know you're racing off to pick up Skyy vodka and a tub of hair gel.
You're an asshole. Or, less dramatically, but no less critically, you're selfish. This should bother you more than it might. If you can't stretch cognitively enough to see why this is a bad thing for others, and for society at large, consider that you'll probably (continue to) have a terrible, striving, unfulfilling life. Until you calm down and recalibrate your viewpoint, you will remain in that desperate, cringy mode in which most assholes of a certain particularly douchey variety seem to be stuck. And yes, as you scream by, we all know you're in that place — that hustling, scraping, gonna-get-mine place that almost no one ever climbs out of. So you're sad. A sad, unenviable asshole.
(non-GwMMs, have I missed anything?)
And again: These impressions created with your loud 'performance' exhaust would otherwise be fine, not so bad at all, in fact, if you weren't tryingso goddamned hard to create impressions painfully opposite to most of these. So you're wasting your time, energy, and money. Sad. GwMMs — more to consider:
Someone woke up today and thought, "During the peace summit this afternoon, we must tailor our opening commentary so as not to alienate our counterparts in Belgium, the country closest to switching their vote on this important resolution."
Someone woke up today and thought, "The protocol for freezing leftover genetic material in our lab needs to change. The last experiment's results were invalidated due to the material being degraded just a hint beyond the acceptable temperature threshold, and this is an unacceptable waste."
Someone woke up today and thought, "The code needs to be rewritten to use atomic rather than non-atomic loads; the thread calling the primary variable is competing with a thread on a different core."
Someone woke up today and thought, "If we're to have any chance of enacting behavioural change in this patient group, we'll need to examine the collective antecedents of their self-efficacy beliefs."
You woke up today and thought, "I'm gonna be the loudest, fastest fuckin' guy on the way to the jobsite! (/mall/salesroom/etc.) They'll all fuckin' know who the boss is."
You see the difference, right? You're a moron. But that's not even the core problem. The core problem is one of focus: Most of the thoughts above are about solving a problem, making a contribution, being an adult member of society. Your tiny-brained thoughts are mainly about yourself, about getting yourself noticed. They're low-level thoughts. You probably drove past people today in your screaming micropenis-mobile who were thinking thoughts just like those above. You didn't notice them, though — in part because your brain was occupied with whether they were noticing you — but more to the point, because many of them were driving practical, nondescript, quiet cars. But why? Why would they do this? How could they make this mistake? Don't they know they should drive the best, fastest, loudest phuckin' ride they can get their hands on?? They must not be able to afford one, right?! Er, no. It's because they don't source their self-esteem from their vehicle. You didn't notice them because they don't need you to notice them. They're not as weak as you are. And they have adult brains, which allow them to focus on others at least as much as on themselves. Hopefully you'll get there someday. (Alright. At this point if you're a GwMM and you're still pretty sure of yourself, and aren't convinced that you are indeed a low-functioning twat, I beg you, look up the Dunning-Kruger Effect.) Non-GwMMs: Why should the rest of us care, beyond the temporary bouts of noise? Is this a real problem for Hamilton? I think it is. The Y-Combinator venture capitalist and essayist Paul Graham has an interesting piece about the "message" a city sends. For example, New York, by its collective actions and values and signals, 'tells' you that you should be richer; Los Angeles tells you that you should be in better shape; San Francisco tells you that you should be healthier and/or in tech; Cambridge (MA) tells you that you should be smarter. And so on. Part of the impact of these messages is that citizens will naturally tend toward the mean of that message over time — and so a city as a whole continually becomes "more like itself". I've lived in a fair number of cities, in Canada and abroad; some sophisticated, some less so. I had so hoped Hamilton would be "the one". But it can't be, at least not for me. Hamilton's ADBpM (Audible Dbag per Minute rate) is comparably quite high — I'd peg it at somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5, in most areas of the city. In other words, the sound of an obnoxious, low-grade human, usually a GwMM, enters my auditory field roughly twice per minute. At this rate, it becomes a 'constant', something reliable; a perpetual reminder of the type of people I'm surrounded by. And so at least for those attuned to it, Hamilton's tone is largely 'off', at least for the city it claims to want to become. The message it sends, as Paul Graham might put it, through its ADBpM and a few other factors, is to be tougher, louder, more aggressive. The GwMMs embody and reinforce that message. Now, some of you may be proud of that. (Though I'm guessing anyone who's read this far is likely not.) I've noticed a trend here, a collective defense mechanism really, of referring to the city as "gritty", or "down-to-earth", or (my favourite so far) as "keeping it real". None of these are proper synonyms for the aggressive dudebro culture incubated and enabled here. The proper term would be 'dumb', or better, 'underdeveloped'. The feel is of being in a cognitively adolescent place. It's obviously nothing to be proud of. The cities that prize blatant aggression are those in which no developed person wants to live. Fort McMurray and Gary (IN) come to mind — teeming jockstraps of aggression, with predictable results — higher rates of alcohol & drug abuse, domestic violence, and violent crime in general. Any thinking person wants their city to have the opposite of these phenomena. The GwMMs don't, of course, have these effects directly. But they do reinforce the vibe. And if aggression and/or general doucheyness is the (or a) pervasive vibe in Hamilton, this is a giant turn-off for all sorts of people who might otherwise move here and make a contribution. So, intelligent, progressive contributors will leave, or will avoid the city. Not all, but certainly some. Possibly many. And the Troglodytes will stay, because they feel at home, especially as their behaviour goes unchecked. The city may thereby, over time, become more like itself. Of course, Hamilton is in many other ways a wonderful place. But in any "on the cusp" or "on the way up" or "improving" city (do we agree that's what it is?), there is always a sort of invisible balance between civility and rampant douchebaggery that could tip in either direction. And the tipping factors aren't always perfectly obvious. Large, dramatic factors like affordable housing and business grants and infrastructure get most of the attention, as rightly they should. But resolving a mishmash of seemingly small other factors, of which I think the GwMM issue is one, can have a large impact as well. All of this to pose a serious question: As mature, intelligent Hamiltonians (non-GwMMs/DBs), what should we actually do about the problem? Do you think Council's initiative will make a difference? If not, what would you propose? A coordinated social-shaming effort? Vigilante action? Nothing?Something else? ** GwMM HELP SECTION *\* Are you a GwMM enraged or offended by this post? Allow me to assist. To save you time, I've taken the liberty of crafting several predictable answers, and translating them into the dudebro vernacular. Modify or copy & paste directly, as you prefer:
"go back for Toronto you leftweng snoeflake, fuck yor self!"
"did you even look at a Mustang b4 you post this LMAO!!"
"elistist phart, prolly wear a covid mask too"
"I get 468 HP in my ride bro you cant compeet your golf cart sucks ass lol"
Okay, this did go a tad long. TL:DR - When you modify your muffleexhaust to be louder than the original, you reveal to most of us that you're weak, sad, likely mini-penis'd, un- or under-educated, emotionally underdeveloped, lack a personality, and are generally a selfish asshole. Of course, if this is the impression you're going for, by all means, continue. TL;DR, polite version - We really do have a problem with vehicle noise pollution in this city. What should we do about it? TL;DR, honest version - I have a recurring dream wherein I learn that all of the clinically retarded philistines in this city have somehow passed away, all at the same time, each by crashing their [Mustang/Ram1500/InfinitiG35*/CivicTypeetc.] into a separate lamp post. If your catruck/SUV/etc is purposely extra loud, you are a certifiable Grade-A douche, and you should be aware that you are among the lowest-functioning members of society.
\* about which — what a shock to learn that that poor woman and her three daughters were killed in Brampton by a 20-year-old male in a bright blue Infiniti G35 with black rims and blacked-out windows. I know I was shocked. At first I guessed maybe a 60-ish woman in a Corolla. But no — I was way off. Incredibly, young guy in a modified Infiniti G35. (Worthless douche, may he rot in prison with others of his ilk.)
- - - - - Footnotes I'll later regret:
Motorcycles — In my head somehow, the motorcycles are a separate issue, despite often being even louder than the modified cars & trucks. It's an old, embedded culture, with the choppeHarley-type bikes typically being ridden by diabetic old men. That fight is lost. That group is largely beyond change, so it's a waiting game (for a traffic accident or lung cancer or cirrhosis or the elegant cascade of symptoms that comprise metabolic syndrome, or a nursing home; whichever). This, and I suspect many cops are (reasonably?) fearful of pulling these guys over.
The "police crackdown on yahoos" — Another reason I'm less than optimistic about this working is because I suspect a Venn diagram of cops and GwMMs may be narrower than we'd like. Dudebro culture in both camps.
The gender thing... <giant sigh> It appears that a few people in earlier discussions have managed to contort their thinking enough to view this issue through a 'gender-equality' lens, as they no doubt view virtually every issue these days. It's not that this isn't adorable; it most certainly is. But it distracts, and threatens to prevent us from getting to the root of the problem. The 'data' aren't hidden, in this case — just look in the cars, and use your counting skills. This is overwhelmingly a guy thing. These are mostly males (or if you prefer, individuals who would appear to be of the sort that traditionally possess a penis) and are usually on the younger side. As humans we are pattern-spotters; we are hard-wired to spot patterns in our environment, in order to make sense of it, and to reduce cognitive load. We can't help it. So yes, most of us will notice that the loudest, fastest cars are driven by traditional males. If you claim not to have noticed this, I have a polygraph machine here and $10,000 with your name on it, should you hardly move the needle when I ask whether you've noticed it. You've noticed it. And (traditionally-)male insecurity leading to aggression is a well-known, well-studied problem. But, reasonably enough, you may point out that male vs. female isn't really the issue. And I would agree. Masculinity, specifically toxic masculinity, as one of our councillors pointed out, is more to the point. I would agree with that as well. But it so happens that most toxic masculine behaviour is exhibited by those who are traditionally male. Is this really a controversial statement?? Will knowing it (under the decidedly safe assumption that it is true) help with vehicle volume enforcement? No, and nor should it. Let's target the behaviour, not the driver, when the behaviour happens. But might knowing (acknowledging) the heavy male-masculine correlation help in getting to the root causes of the aggressive, asocial behaviour, possibly before that behaviour occurs? I think it might, as it hints at who may require help/treatment/intervention/education/etc. We have neither the time nor the resources to address the problem entirely at random, in the name of political correctness.
Rant from a Financial Advisor (no love for this in personal finance)
This is a rant from an individual who considers himself an advisor and advocate for his clients. The first myth I would like to dispel is the idea that just because someone works for an RIA or is a fee only advisor they are not a salesman. Instead of looking for a FA, that is this or that, please just evaluate them on one criteria. Are they a salesman or are they there to advise you on your financial life. I know that this goes against the grain of everything you have heard but just keep reading. Just because you are working with an RIA or a fee only advisor you are not guaranteed impartiality. Sorry to burst your bubble but that is how life works. For example they will only sell you certain funds that pay a commission to the firm and the advisor. Oh.... you want to buy a vanguard index fund, nope not happening we have this A share fund and that is it. SEE LOOK!!!! we can only sell you certain funds and since they charge the same commission we are fulfilling our fiduciary relationship. THIS IS WHERE THE INDUSTRY IS GOING PEOPLE!!!! Ok. now you will say BUT if you just buy an S&P 500 index fund you will do better than most advisors and managers, follow Warren Buffet's advice. NO SHIT!! This is true and should be used by everyone. BUT guess what??? Most people are not smart enough or disciplined enough to do this. People hire advisors like me to keep them on track. To keep them grounded when the market turns bad. Mostly to keep them invested. Yes you heard me "to keep them invested." Your grandma or aunt that you want to take over the account and invest in VOO because you read on the inter-webs that it is the best thing since sliced bread. Guess what happens when the market drops 25%. She fucking sells out and does not buy back in for years. This is the reality of the situation. This is why most advisors will buy a growth moderate income fund or balanced fund, because guess what? Most people are OK with mediocre returns if they don't lose money in sharp declines. This is the real secret to the business. we work to keep people invested NOT make them the most money possible.
How do you select an advisor you ask. here is how. Ask FUCKING questions.
Education: sociology major or English major, yeah fuck that guy
Time in the industry: your cousin who cold called you, fuck him.
AUM: this should be at least a few million if he is with an RIA, much more if a broker!!!
Captive or independent: go independent all the way or get the shit "A share" funds.
Ask them technical question. If they can not explain a PE ratio run or how a stock price is affected by a dividend then run.
Ask for stock picks!!! No joke but don't buy them ( you will likely lose money). Because if they cant give you any analysis on a single stock why the fuck should you talk to this guy. They are a salesman nothing more.
Don't buy shit from your CSR at the bank!!!!
Will they work with your insert CPA, Lawyer, business partner?
Speaking of that don't use your CPA or Lawyer as your FA. Conflict of interest.
Beware of the old fuck who has 2 years experience but looks like he has 25 years in the industry. Usually overweight balding and wearing a J. Bank Suit from the buy one get three free line.
Oh yeah the guy that seems to give zero fucks about you and your money. That is the one you want. Why??? because he does not need to sell you shit to pay his bills. He will give you advice based on your best interest not his. His car and mortgage are golden and do not depend on your $10,000 IRA to keep his BMW from the repo man.
A few more things Whole Life insurance: FUCK WHOLE LIFE INSURANCE. This is the worst investment known to man. Buy term. Whole is a savings account with life insurance attached. Annuities: These get a bad rap but are great if you understand what you are buying. Most people do not. CD at 1% for 5 years or a fixed annuity at 2.4% for 3 years buy the fucking annuity. $200,000 in your MMA for the last 10 years thinking interest rates will go up. Buy an Index annuity for 7 years at a cap of 5%. Fuck you were not doing anything with the money anyway. See my point!!! Mutual funds: Just buy an index funds. There I said it. But really it is your best bet to make real money. If you can not deal with the ups and downs look to a no load fund from a reputable company with a fixed income component. Individual stock: The only way to beat the market. Also the quickest way to lose money. buyer beware. This rant is not geared to people who can invest for themselves. It is geared toward those that want to evaluate and Advisor without the sugar coating from someone in the industry. EDIT: Thank you to the persons who gave this post gold and silver. I thought when I made it that the post would be deleted before morning!!! I want to address a few things that people have asked the most and I will try to answer everyone's questions
Education: This pissed a lot of people off! I was not trying to say that if you are not an econ major you can't be an advisor. I was trying to give people a way of cutting out the BS of the industry. You need to understand how people are recruited. Many firms will take on about anyone who can breath and pass the series 7, then they put them in a room to do cold calls or go knock on doors asking for business. A great deal of the folks get jobs with the firm only to be exploited and to wash out of the industry. People with a business or econ background are more likely to work at reputable and legit firms that don't exploit you for your circle of friends or family.
Fiduciary Standard: Everyone likes to make mention of this. Well.... what does this mean??? In the financial services industry it means that the advisor will not sell you one product over the other based on personal gain to the advisor. This is different from a suitability standard where you can sell whatever you want no matter the commission as long as it is suitable for the customer. How each firm deals with this is different across the board. RIA's for example will only invest your account under a Wrap fee usually 1-2% of the AUM. Commission based sales will remove low commission products so they can say that they did the best for you on their platform. What it does NOT mean is the advisor must do the very best for you and send you down the street if there is a better deal. IT ONLY MEANS THEY MUST DO THE BEST FOR YOU WITH WHAT THEY CAN SELL.
Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives. PREVIOUSLY:
We start with more on the death of Davey Boy Smith, including a full-length super long obituary, because apparently 2002 is nothing but people dying. I feel like I've done nothing but recap obituaries since starting back with 2002. Anyway. in the wake of Smith's death, the reaction has sadly not been one of surprise. Anyone who saw Smith in the last 4-5 years pretty much saw it coming. The cause of death, pending toxicology results, was ruled a heart attack caused from prolonged steroid use. But until the toxicology results are back, the belief among his friends and family is that there was probably more to it. Dave talks about the staggering number of wrestlers who have died under age 40 in recent years, with upwards of 20 of them being due to drug issues.
Smith died while on vacation with his girlfriend Andrea Hart, estranged wife of Bruce Hart. Despite that, Smith was actually on good terms with most of the Hart family, although Andrea is not. The Hart family believes Andrea knows more than she's letting on about the circumstances of his death, but she's not talking to anybody. Andrea's children (that she had with Bruce) were also there and they each apparently have different accounts of how he died (he was sleeping! he was in the pool! he was eating!) but they all pretty much agree he collapsed doing whatever he was doing. Andrea told the press that she believed Smith had overdosed, but Smith's dad did his own interviews and denied it, saying his son had stopped using drugs and was clean when he died. Needless to say, most people aren't buying that given his track record. Smith's father decided against having the body cremated and instead ordered it sent back to England for examination to make sure he wasn't murdered. "I cannot believe his death was natural," he said. "If they find drugs in his body, then he didn't put them there. Davey was clean." (Eeeeeeehhhhh....) Shit got even messier when Andrea and Smith's ex-wife Diana Hart each tried to claim the body. Despite her book (in which she accused Smith of drugging, abusing, and raping her), Diana played grieving widow in the media even though they're divorced. It may not have been an act though. Some in the family believe Smith and Diana were trying to reconcile, and they were on good terms at the time of his death. Andrea claimed to be his common-law wife, even though she's still legally married to Bruce. She later claimed Smith had proposed to her 2 weeks before his death and said they were engaged, which was the first anyone had heard about that. Smith's father claims in their last conversation, Davey Boy had told him he was planning to break up with Andrea after their vacation. So who knows. Anyway, both Diana and Andrea planned their own separate memorial services, while Smith's dad is planning his own 3rd service. Smith's body wasn't at either of the Hart family memorial services because, as mentioned, it was sent back to England where authorities are launching an investigation at the behest of Smith's father.
Andrea's service was said to be small and simple, just a few dozen people, and she seemed sincere in her sorrow. Diana's service was larger and more public, with hundreds of attendees and press, along with several WWE names. Vince McMahon, Hulk Hogan, Bret Hart (who attended both services), Chris Benoit, Chris Jericho, Jim Ross, and others all attended and several of them spoke. Diana's eulogy featured a professionally produced video featuring Davey Boy footage from WWE that had never aired on television before. She thanked Vince for trying to help Davey with his addiction issues. She never acknowledged everything she wrote about him in her book last year. Smith's children as well as Stampede wrestler TJ Wilson gave speeches as well. 16-year-old Harry Smith was composed and gave a great speech about teaming with his father in his last matches. And then Ellie Hart got up there and....it went about how you'd expect. She started ranting about Andrea and blaming her for not giving the family the answers they wanted and it started to turn into some drama, but the minister gently interrupted her and got things back on track. And finally, Bret Hart gave a speech, directly addressing Smith's children and saying that Davey Boy and Owen would want the children of all these Hart family members to get along with each other better than the adults have. From here, Dave gets into the actual meat of the obituary, recapping Smith's life and career. As always, an excellent read but very long to recap.
WWE Confidential, the new show the company is producing, aired its debut episode this week, focusing on the Montreal Screwjob. Dave once again talks about how Vince McMahon tried to downplay the incident recently, giving an interview just a couple of months ago calling the Screwjob a minor incident that almost no one cares about. Vince went so far as to say he could count on one hand the number of people who even still care about that old news. Turns out one of those must be Vince because this week, they dedicated the premiere of this new show to the story and highlighted it as the most controversial night in the history of wrestling. The hook of the show was Shawn Michaels revealing publicly, for the first time, that yes, he was in on the screwjob and knew about it in advance. Dave says this isn't really a secret. Shawn denied having any knowledge of it that night but as soon as the day after Survivor Series 97, he was bragging to friends about it. Vince McMahon also later confided in Undertaker that Shawn knew ahead of time. So it was kind of an open "secret" that Shawn knew but this is the first time he's admitted it publicly. Triple H still denies knowing about it ahead of time, but Dave is pretty skeptical there too (and indeed, it's later revealed that yes indeed, Triple H also knew). Dave thinks lots of people had to know. Even the guy who cued the music had to know, because Shawn's music was queued up and ready to play the second Vince ordered the bell to be rung. Pat Patterson always claimed not to know and Bret has said he wants to believe it, because he likes Pat, but the way Pat interrupted the match-planning conversation and specifically suggested the sharpshooter spot to them makes Bret question it (I think Patterson still denies it to this day, but I have my doubts there too). Anyway, the show recapped the history of the Screwjob and if you know Dave, you know he's about to poke a whole bunch of holes in WWE's revisionist bullshit. Here we go...
The story of the episode was WWF was close to going out of business due to the WCW war and couldn't afford Bret anymore, so Vince nobly allowed Hart out of his contract so he could negotiate a better deal with WCW. Actually, Dave says, Vince first talked to Bret about deferring some of his contract to later on but that was a couple months earlier. At the time, WWF really was having some financial struggles, but it's an exaggeration to say they were almost driven out of business. They were never even close. But regardless, that's irrelevant because in Sept. 97, they raised the price of PPVs by $10. That added revenue, which was nearly $1 million per month in pure profit, was easily enough to get them out of financial trouble. By the time Survivor Series 97 rolled around, WWF was doing just fine, money-wise, and were only a couple months away from catching fire and getting nuclear hot. So no, they did not need to get rid of Bret's contract. And in fact, in October, a couple weeks before Survivor Series, Vince changed his mind and asked Bret to stay, saying that the financial situation had turned around. But by this point, Hart's negotiations with WCW were full speed ahead and Vince allowed Hart to continue negotiating. But after talking to both sides, it was clear Vince had no real plan for Bret and he didn't really seem like he wanted to keep him, so Bret took the WCW deal and the rest is history. But of course, none of that is mentioned in this show. The episode also claimed Hart refused to drop the title to anyone (again, not true. Only Shawn. Bret even offered to lose it to Brooklyn Brawler if they wanted. In fact, Dave breaks down all the different scenarios that were presented here, and Bret was willing to lose the title to anyone other than Shawn, anywhere other than that show in Montreal, at any date before or after the PPV. They had actually presented Bret with dozens of different scenarios, all of which he agreed to, only for Vince to keep coming back around to Shawn at Survivor Series, which was the one and only thing Bret wouldn't budge on). They also tried to paint the picture that Bret could have taken the title to WCW the night after Survivor Series. In fact, Bret's WWF contract didn't end until Dec. 1st, and he was booked on more than a dozen house shows after Survivor Series and had even agreed to work the early December PPV because Bischoff had given his blessing. There was zero chance Bret was going to show up with the belt on Nitro. There was concern that Bischoff would go on Nitro the next day and announce he had signed Bret, and Dave says it's true that Bischoff certainly was planning to do that. But Bret had also asked Bischoff to hold off on the announcement and Bischoff had agreed. Vince knew about that too, but in recorded conversations with Bret (from the Wrestling With Shadows documentary), Vince didn't seem concerned since the word was already out and everyone knew Bret was leaving already. This just goes on and on. We all know the story already. Anyway, TL;DR - interesting show, but WWE's version of the story is bullshit. But we all knew that.
At the latest NJPW show, Antonio Inoki came out and cut a promo. He talked about being in attendance recently at the World Cup and said wrestling needs something like that. Inoki claimed he had put together a deal with WWE for a joint NJPW/WWE show to take place later in the year. Dave doesn't know if there's any truth to that story, but this is the first he's heard of it and he doesn't think it makes any sense for WWE so he's skeptical.
Usually in Japan, TV-Asahi airs the finals of NJPW's G1 Climax tournament live. But this year that may not happen, as they're looking at airing one of Inoki's MMA shows instead. This is a direct result of the terrible rating the recent Tokyo Dome show drew when it aired live. This company is struggling mightily lately.
Random news and notes: Inoki recently recruited a 23-year old Brazillian MMA fighter named Lyoto Machida to come to NJPW (he never really does anything in NJPW other than train at the dojo, but he had a long career in UFC and still fights for Bellator to this day). Dusty Rhodes is the new co-host of Turner South's Atlanta Braves pre-game show called "Hey The Braves Are Next!" Scott Hall will be working Insane Clown Posse's upcoming Gathering of the Juggalos event. Former WCW wrestler Evan Karagis recently filmed a role on the soap opera "Passions."
In the main event of FOX's Celebrity Boxing show, Chyna lost by decision to Joey Buttafuoco. Chyna's mystique of being a woman who only wants to compete with men got pretty much obliterated here, as the larger Buttafuoco manhandled her with ease for much of the match, which probably makes all those big tough wrestlers who sold for her feel kinda silly. But Buttafuoco came in as a hated heel to the audience and despite how she got pummeled, many people felt Buttafuoco was fighting dirty and cheating, so Chyna wasn't too hurt by it. She talked about wanting a rematch and Dave says if PRIDE really wants to break into the U.S. market, they could throw it onto one of their cards. Hey, this show did a really strong TV rating, maybe a rematch would be just the kind of freak-show attraction needed for PRIDE to get attention in the U.S. Nothing else they've tried has worked. Dave also suggests NWA-TNA could book it, but a worked wrestling match between the two probably wouldn't get as much media attention.
Big Dick Dudley's ex-wife, former ECW valet Elektra, did an interview talking about his death. She said he'd had stomach pains all week and couldn't urinate. But didn't go to the doctor because he didn't think it was a big deal. Then at one point he got up to go to the bathroom but collapsed on the floor and died there on the spot. Jeez. At the time of his death, he had lost over 100 pounds from his peak weight of 320 in ECW several years ago.
Vince Russo is going to be writing a book about his time in WWF. Due to legal reasons and the ongoing lawsuit, it won't include much about his WCW tenure (I think he's written a book or two, but I've never read them, so if anyone has any insight, feel free to share).
Shaun Assael's book "Sex, Lies, & Headlocks: The Real Story of Vince McMahon and the World Wrestling Federation" will be published next month and is getting strong early reviews. Dave has talked to several of the people who spoke with Assael for the book and some of them expect it to be good while others feel that Assael fell victim to the cons and charms of wrestlers who were working him. We shall see, says Dave.
The debut NWA-TNA PPV will feature some sort of tournament to crown a new NWA champion. Dan Severn is no longer the champion after not agreeing to work the show (he already had a prior MMA booking for that date in New Mexico). As a result, the NWA (which is now working with TNA) just stripped him of the belt, which is convenient because they didn't really want to use Severn anyway, so now they can do whatever they originally planned to do with the belt without having to book an excuse to get it off him. The Jarretts and this new promotion now have full control over both the NWA world and tag team titles.
Mike Tenay has been named the lead announcer for the new NWA-TNA promotion. They're also trying to get Lex Luger to appear for the debut show, but Dave thinks its unlikely since Luger is financially set for life and has shown no interest in doing any wrestling since WCW folded.
Jeff Jarrett had talks with Bret Hart about coming in to do a Team Canada gimmick. Latest Dave heard is that Hart isn't interested, but they may bring in some of the new generation of Harts for it. There's been talk of bringing in TJ Wilson, Harry Smith, and Teddy Hart as a new version of the group. Smith is still only 16 and it's way too early to put him on the national stage yet and in a lot of states, he wouldn't even legally be allowed to perform. Wilson is also a teenager, from a bad home who pretty much grew up as an honorary Hart member in the Hart household. And Teddy Hart is a natural in-ring performer who would already be in WWE if not for the fact that during his two training camp tryouts, he had behavioral incidents both times. But they're all talented and will likely be big stars in the future. Last time WWE was in Calgary, Vince McMahon personally requested to meet with all 3 of them for a private tryout, but it didn't amount to anything.
Little bit of a change in the WWF writing teams. Brian Gewertz is now the official head writer for Raw, while Paul Heyman is the lead writer for Smackdown. Stephanie McMahon will continue to oversee creative for both shows and, of course, Vince still has final say on everything. Dave expects this to result in Raw being a more comedic show while Smackdown will be the more serious in-ring product (pretty much, yeah. And thus, we have the official beginning of Heyman-era Smackdown and soon we'll see the birth of the Smackdown Six).
Notes from Raw: show opened with Chris Benoit making his unannounced return to a huge pop. Dave still expects Benoit to eventually be managed by Arn Anderson, which has been the plan for months (and never happens). That was actually the original plan before the NWO was brought in. If Benoit was healthy in time (which, turned out he wasn't so it didn't matter anyway), the original idea was Benoit vs. Austin at Wrestlemania 18 with Anderson managing Benoit. But that obviously all changed. Anyway, what else? Dave once again mentions that Jeff Hardy looks physically awful. He seems to know about Hardy's drug issues and seems to be hinting about it without saying it. Tommy Dreamer continued his gross gimmick by drinking Undertaker's tobacco spit. Lesnar beat Bubba Ray Dudley but had to sell a ton in the match and Dave doesn't get it. For a guy that they so clearly want to turn into a Goldberg-like star, selling for midcarders every week isn't how Goldberg got over. Jim Ross went on and on about how Lesnar has never been pinned, which Dave says is an insult to all the fans who have seen Lesnar do jobs at house shows. RVD beat Eddie Guerrero in a 20+ minute ladder match and Dave says it's the longest match on Raw in at least a year. Dave gives it 4 stars and considering how messy and sloppy it was, that shows you how good it was. Lots of dangerous spots, some botched moves, and most notably a moment when a fan ran into the ring and knocked over the ladder while Eddie was climbing up. Eddie and Earl Hebner started stomping the fan until security dragged him out. Still an awesome match though. And finally, Benoit returned at the end of the show and turned heel on Austin. Dave says Benoit actually isn't ready yet and isn't supposed to be back in the ring until July, but the company is so desperate for anything to give them a shot in the arm that they may have pulled the trigger on this angle early.
Notes from Smackdown: the only thing Dave talks about is the Hulk Hogan retirement angle they did and he's got mixed feelings on it. First the positive: he gives Hogan credit for being an absolutely incredible performer when the heat is on. And Hogan gave a tremendous performance in this and Dave doesn't let it go unrecognized. But then the negative: in the promo, Hogan talked at length about when his dad was dying, he was basically expressionless except for Monday and Thursday nights when he'd watch WWF and his face would light up. So Hogan said his dad's last words were he wanted to see his son return to the WWF. So that's all sweet and nice, right? Weeeeeell....Hogan has told a different version of this story in the past. In previous interviews, Hogan said his dad was disgusted by what wrestling had become and he wanted Hogan to "clean it up." The idea that he was laying in the hospital and only coming to life when his beloved WWF was on doesn't exactly jibe with what Hogan has said before. And no matter what the truth is, Dave is uncomfortable Hogan using his dead dad as a way to get this storyline over, but hey, he ain't the first and won't be the last.
WWE's first show in Hawaii in probably 15 years is scheduled for later this month. Rock is scheduled to work the show and tickets sold out 2 hours after they went on sale. While we're at it, the Australia show in August also sold out the 47,000-seat Colonial Stadium in Melbourne in only 4 days. Once they scale the stadium for production, they plan to open up more seats.
It's "basically a sure thing" that Hogan vs. Vince McMahon will be one of the top matches at Summerslam. How they get there seems to change weekly. There's been talks of having Hogan take time off after King of the Ring and return for the Vince match at Summerslam. There's also been talk of him sticking around through the entire summer. So who knows? (Ended up being a mixture of both: Hogan stuck around the entire summer, but then he did an angle to get written off TV right before Summerslam. And he didn't come back until early 2003. And, of course, we got the Hogan/Vince match at Wrestlemania)
More info on the incident from a couple weeks ago where Kevin Nash and X-Pac reportedly threw a fit and got the script changed. They were told by writer Ed Koskey what the plans were for them on the show. Nash and X-Pac didn't like it, especially X-Pac since it involved him doing 2 jobs during the same show. X-Pac said he was quitting and told Nash he'd meet him in the car. Nash told Shane McMahon he'd go calm X-Pac down and straighten everything out. Nash and X-Pac came back, had meetings with Shane and Jim Ross, and then later with Koskey and Brian Gewertz (who wrote the show). They managed to convince the writers to change it more to their liking. Nash was also upset about how Ric Flair went on TV and said he'd fired Scott Hall. Nash didn't like the idea of Flair on TV being able to hire and fire people from their NWO, because that kinda takes away from the idea of the NWO as an autonomous, outsider group that doesn't play by WWE's rules. So that's why Nash was able to go out on TV on this night and cut the promo about how Flair doesn't control the NWO. Of course, Hall is still gone, so I guess he still does. Anyway, both Nash and X-Pac were pissed over all this and caused a scene, especially X-Pac, to the point others in the locker room wondered why they weren't disciplined instead of being given their way. But if you wonder that, you clearly ain't been paying attention to Nash over the years. Anyway, X-Pac still did the job in the Hardyz match, but not in the second match.
Random news: house shows in Alexandria and Baton Rouge, LA were both canceled this weekend due to low ticket sales. Shit's selling out in record time in Australia and Hawaii, but they can't give tickets away in Louisiana apparently. Undertakers hips were both banged up after the Hogan match at the PPV but he continued working, although he was limited (and years later, he'd have to get major surgery on both those hips). At Raw in Edmonton, Ric Flair was getting huge pops and "woo!" chants for him before the show started, so they filmed a backstage segment where he told Arn Anderson how much he hates Edmonton so they would boo him when he came out live. Lance Cade won the HWA title from Johnny the Bull down in developmental. WWF was pushing the city of Edmonton to present Benoit with the key to the city on Raw, but Edmonton wasn't so keen on the idea. And finally, during a bikini contest at the house show in Winnipeg, Ivory's top got pulled down, exposing her boob, much to the delight of many in the crowd.
Remember how MTV's The Osbournes was the only show routinely beating Raw in the cable ratings? That's changing. The Osbournes is over for the season, but this week, Raw fell to #4 behind the Lakers/Spurs NBA playoff game and 2 different episodes of SpongeBob. Patrick's a draw, brother.
Raven has been doing commentary on Sunday Night Heat, but he recently asked to be removed from it because he feels like it hurts his wrestling character. Dave thinks this is pretty risky. Raven as a wrestler is probably nearing the end of his shelf-life and lord knows WWE hasn't shown any desire to push him. And he was actually pretty fantastic at commentary. So giving up a safe job that he was excelling at for one that WWE doesn't really seem to see any value in him for seems like a good way to find yourself on the chopping block next time they decide to get rid of some people (yup, he'll be gone from the company in another 7 months or so). For what it's worth though, this isn't the first time Raven has been in this situation. Back in the 90s, he was a manager and commentator in WWF then too, under the name Johnny Polo. But when they weren't interested in using him as a wrestler, he quit the company and reinvented himself in ECW as Raven. Sometimes you gotta bet on yourself.
Jim Ross has a weekly WWE.com article where he usually just shares all the latest injuries everyone has. This leads Dave on a bit of a tangent when Ross wrote about how Triple H has a fractured patella. The injury was diagnosed by Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham and Andrews told Triple H to be careful with it, but he could continue wrestling as long as he can take the pain. Basically one of the world's top sports doctors saying, "Yeah you've got a broken knee, but throw some dirt on it, you'll be fine." It's no wonder so many of these guys end up on pain pills rather than getting the medical treatment they need.
Also in his article, Jim Ross admitted that the WWE is not doing a good job lately of providing a product the fans want to see. Dave thinks that's just about as strong a statement he's heard on the current state of WWE from someone so high up within the company. Ross admitted they need to create new rivalries, elevate new young talent, and effectively introduce new stars. However, Ross also blamed the economy and the abnormally high number of injuries everyone is dealing with right now for part of the problems too. Dave says the economy may play a small role in the declining live event and PPV numbers, but usually when the economy is in the toilet, TV ratings go up because people are staying home more. Not the case here. Injuries, yes that's a problem for sure. But the core of all WWE's problems right now comes down to the simple fact that the show pretty much sucks. And at least someone high up in the office seems to finally be publicly admitting it.
Tough Enough 2 is down to the final four. Dave talks about how Jackie Gayda is now the sentimental favorite because she tore her ACL during the show but has still refused to quit, which opened a lot of eyes on her. Speaking of Tough Enough, in a WCW-like comedy of errors, they aired a promo for next week's episode before the current episode was finished, thus spoiling who the final 4 were going to be, before it was revealed on the show people were watching.
The WWF Forceable Entry album has sold around 364,000 copies total since its release. But it's actually considered a pretty huge failure because WWF had to pay so much money in fees and up front advances to the various artists on the album, and they're nowhere close to recouping that cost. (The album eventually sells over 500,000 and goes gold but still a flop).
NEXT WEDNESDAY:A look at the dismal state of WWE in 2002, Tough Enough II finale, Riki Choshu's departure from NJPW, Dave reviews several new wrestling books, and more...
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker v Till Fight Predictions
Hello! I'm posting this a bit early because i needed to start super early in order to cover all 15 fights, because really, this is a loaded card and i didn't wanna dawdle Gifs are making a comeback! Or at least I hope they are. I'm not adding a lot of gifs, this is simply a test run to see if the embedding works, if it works, then you'll see gifs come back in full! If not, I will leave a comment below talking about what I was doing and all that jazz. But for now, enjoy the predictions, have a beautiful week and enjoy this pretty stacked card. (c) - Champ (D) - Debut FLS - Fight Lose Streak FWS - Fight Win Streak NS - No Streak (#x) - Rank in Division Lets go! Prelims Bantamweight Nathaniel Wood (16-4-0, NS) v John Castenada (D) (#1 US West) (17-4-0, NS) - What a fun fight to start off a very long card. Wood is about as well rounded as you can get, at least for the current competition he faces. Wood has three remarkable performances under his belt, he landed some very clean combos on Eduardo, with a slick hip change on his last left hook which no doubt accentuated his power, and that’s just his stand up, his ground game is absolutely sublime, with 3 submission victories in all 3 wins in the UFC, going to the ground against this man is very dangerous and he will sink in a choke if you let him. Castenada will need to fight the hands and wrist the whole time and try to keep the fight on the feet because that’s the only way I can see Wood losing, Wood does not have a good defence and he will eat a lot of shots. His recent loss against Dodson was disappointing but just adds to the fact that Wood needs to work on his defences or he’s just going to get clipped over and over again, and with Bantamweight being loaded with powerful strikers, it’ll be tough for him to breach the top part of the division with the current skillset he has. Castenada is someone who i’m not super familiar with, he has an equal amount of KO’s and Submissions under his belt, and he seems to be coming in from the combate scene where he’s faced a variety of tough opponents, so his debut is going to be interesting, I don’t know what to expect, i’m as blind as a bat when it comes to his side of the fight, my main focus is on Wood this time. Wood via Sub R2 Welterweight Ramazan Emeev (18-4-0, NS) v Niklas Stolze (D) (#3 Germany) (12-3-0, 4 FWS) - Emeev is an absolute machine when it comes to grappling, he’s very physically strong and is an excellent Sambo fighter, with strong takedowns and just a brutal grinder. He hasn’t had a finish in the UFC yet, but his ability to outperform his opponents and always dominate them on the ground is truly a beautiful thing. He has a tendency to crash forward with a strong right hand then clinch in a body lock in order to get a takedown, so his opponents are always ready for either a strike or a grapple attempt, but never both, and that’s what makes him so dangerous. Stolze is someone who i’m also not super familiar with, so many debutants who could be potential stars! Stolze Is a very dangerous kickboxer who has an extensive record of 17-3, so from that alone we can tell he specializes in well, striking, which could be good against Emeev. It depends on what Emeev wants to do, and I think what Emeev wants to do is most likely take him down and negate any striking Stolze will have, and he will have an advantage on the feet. This is an interesting match up, a grappler v striker in its purest form. I got Emeev on this one though, he’s just so strong and aggressive. Emeev via UD Women’s Bantamweight Bethe Correia (#14) (11-4-1, NS) v Pannie Kianzad (12-5-0, NS) - The fact that Correia is ranked 14 in her respective division just tells me that the division is lacking in serious talent. Correia is an odd fighter. Whenever I watch her, she just lacks everywhere and it makes me wonder how she wins. Her grappling is probably her main weapon, as shes quite physically strong, but her striking is severely bad. I feel like this is her last chance at staying in the UFC because the general consensus amongst all viewers and pundits is that she’s just not UFC worthy, and if that is the case, Kianzad should easily be able to defeat her, either through domination, or through a submission, regardless if Kianzad can’t even defeat Correia then what hope is there for either of these fighters? I know i’m sounding harsh but let’s remember why these fighters are fighting, it’s for the belt, and Nunes is still the most dominant champ that the UFC has ever seen. These girls need to impress or they’re just going to be extras in a star filled film. Kianzad via UD Heavyweight Raphael Pessoa (10-1-0, NS) v Tanner Boser (18-6-1, NS) - I see you, Boser. I didn’t last time, I wholeheartedly went against you, but goddamn that was a beautiful finish. Literally Bulldozed him. Pessoa is a large and foreboding fighter who isn’t having huge success in the UFC, despite having a win over Jeff Hughes (who was well on his way out) he still hasn’t really impressed fans, he seemed slow and really just not UFC ready. Which is probably why they’re feeding him to Boser because you gotta build some hype somehow. But that isn’t to say that Pessoa is an easy fight, he could very well not be, he has 6 knockouts on his record, 5 of them being in the first round. He’s still a dangerous brawler and when it comes to heavyweights it really only takes one to put someone to sleep. Boser is a savage though, an absolute wild man who unleashed hell on Lins three weeks ago, he’s a power house and his only real chance at winning is to just initiate and be smart about it. He needs to flurry then reset, tire Pessoa out, and maybe in the second or third round we’ll see Pessoa slow down significantly. I feel like that’s probably the safer bet right now, so yeah, Boser probably has this. Boser via KO R2 Featherweight Movsar Evloev (12-0-0, 12 FWS) v Mike Grundy (12-1-0, 9 FWS) - There’s a lot going on in this match up. Both fighters have quite a significant streak going. Evloev is a very high pace, high skilled wrestler who absolutely ragdolls his opponents. His two wins against Barzola and Choi were extremely dominant and his cardio held up exceptionally well in the later rounds. His ability to make his opponents think about the takedowns almost all the time, only to pepper them with very fast and snappy punches is great, he never really stops moving, every time his opponent tries something, he either fires back, or he wrestles, and when he wrestles, it’s straight domination. He is a nightmare opponent purely because its a true test of cardio and endurance, he’s almost a perfect opponent to find out your own weaknesses. Grundy is a world class wrestler which makes this match up super interesting, because it probably won’t be a wrestler v wrestler fight, it’ll most likely end up being a striking bout, because if both fighters negate each other, then you have one round of “nothing happened” and really, on the biggest stage in the world, you don’t want that. I won’t pretend to know the difference between Russian wrestling and Olympic Freestyle wrestling, i’m sure there’s a whole intricate thing behind both styles, but if I was to guess who is the better overall fighter, i’d go with Evloev, he has shown us in his fight against Barzola that he isn’t only a threat on the ground, but on the feet as well, an ever evolving fighter, and that quite frankly is pretty exciting. Evloev via UD Heavyweight Jake Collier (11-4-0, NS) v Tom Aspinall (D) (7-2-0, 3 FWS) - This is a great fight, purely because Aspinall is a dangerous striker. Collier is on a vicious win/loss cycle right now, defeating relatively unknown fighters, but ultimately losing to more higher class fighters, so every time he wins, he has a minor setback afterwards. I’m not saying that’s gonna happen this time, but who knows? This is Colliers first time at heavyweight I believe, so it’ll be interesting to see if his cardio holds up against Aspinall who is a natural heavyweight. He could very well be a better athlete, but from what I saw during his Light Heavyweight and Middleweight performances, he seems like an average striker so, lets see what he’s worked on coming into this fight. Aspinall is a powerful boxer, he has fast and accurate hands, he’s huge, and he’s from england, and whilst that last bit probably doesn’t matter, we really need more England talent in the UFC. Aspinall is going to be trouble for Collier, his size and power is going to be at a huge advantage and I can see this fight ending in the first round easily. He’s a strong starter. Aspinall via KO R1 Welterweight Nicholas Dalby (18-3-1, NS) v Jesse Ronson (D) (#1 Lightweight Canada) (21-10-0, NS) - Dalby is going strong with his comeback to the UFC, with one significant win over Alex Olveira late last year, it was a slow, methodical fight and at the same time, it was intense. Oliveira being a veteran of the sport, anything could have happened, but Dalby handled that fight like a champ and got the win. He also had a very significant win, not in any cage, but in life, after fighting a rough run with alcoholism, he battled those demons, and now he’s back to chase his dreams once more, and that’s nothing short of beautiful and something I look up to. Dalby is fairly well rounded and no doubt a tough striker, but considering he’s nearing his late 30’s, he needs to push these last few years of his healthy prime before old age and wear and tear sets in. Ronson is apparently the Number 1 Lightweight in Canada, I don’t know how accurate that is because i’m getting all this info from Tapology, but if that is the case, then we could see something interesting from Ronson. He has a relatively interesting record, losing twice in his last five bouts in PFL, that kinda tells me he isn’t ready for that type of competition, which makes me wonder why the UFC signed him, perhaps because Dalby needed an opponent? Either way, I don’t have a lot to say about Ronson, i’ll be keeping an eye on him but most of my attention will be on Dalby. Dalby via KO R2 Lightweight Francisco Trinaldo (#15) (25-7-0, 2 FWS) v Jai Herbert (D) (10-1-0, 6 FWS) - An interesting debut. Trinaldo is an old, savage fighter. I say this time after time whenever Trinaldo fights, his age is probably an issue. I say probably because recently he’s still defeating younger fighters. Trinaldo is such a well rounded fighter, he’s got savage power in his hands, and he’s got a mean ground game, the only issues I see is that his age will probably catch up to him eventually, I’m not sure when, but it’ll probably be soon. Will Herbert be the one to retire Trinaldo? Possibly. But Trinaldo has faced some tough fighters and that experience adds up. Trinaldo winning is a possibility, but it also isn’t, if you catch my meaning. Herbert has one hell of a streak. 5 KO’s in his last 6 wins, he has proven to people that his striking capabilities and his power is immense and he could be a danger to Trinaldo. Trinaldo’s chin is possibly still there, he’s never been knocked out, but he could get outstruck and if Herbert keeps the pressure then he has a fair chance at winning, in fact i’d argue the only way he can win is to just keep the pressure up, avoid any takedowns and just ride out the storm. This is a fun fight, it can be gritty but that’s the fun part. I’m going against the tide on this one, Herbert has this, if he sticks with what I just said. I aint no coach though. Herbert via UD Welterweight Khazmat Chimaev (7-0-0, 7 FWS) v Rhys McKee (D) (10-2-1, 3 FWS) - This fight is a must see, and i’m sure you all know why by now. Chimaev reminds me of Khabib, one hundred percent. There is no doubt in my mind that this man has a very bright future ahead of him. His win over Phillips was pure domination, Phillips didn’t even touch him I don’t think, it was essentially a sparring match with a lesser fighter (not saying Phillips is a lesser fighter, but the differential in skill was most visible during the fight). His wrestling, his cardio, his pace, and his focus were key during that fight and he executed his game plan superbly. I cannot say enough good things about him, it’s incredibly clear the light is shining on this young man who is literally my age, what have i done with my life. Sadness aside, Chimaev is a problem for the division, but I do have one worry, and that’s his chin. McKee is a dangerous striker, with huge knockout power and incredible hand speed, will Chimaev play it safe and stay out of range and wait for an opening? Or will he strike against a potentially better striker and get hit hard? Chimaev is only 7 fights in his career, that’s still a fresh fighter, he probably hasn’t faced adversity yet and he might not even have difficulty in this fight, it’s the what ifs that make me mildly hesitant to jump on the hype train. Regardless though, Chimaev is very promising so i’m gonna grab that ticket and board the hype train. Such an incredibly interesting prospect. Chimaev via Sub R2 Main Card Welterweight Alex Oliveira (21-8-1, NS) v Peter Sobotta (17-6-1, NS) - A potentially fun scrap. Oliveira has definitely fallen off on some difficult times in his career recently, with his last significant win being over Pedersoli, which was just under two years ago, since then he’s faced defeat after defeat, and a fairly rough win over Griffin. Oliveira is always up for a good fight, he’s not the type to back down from one or pull out, he has the propensity to leave it all in the octagon and still come out a better martial artist. But I think the word that goes around when you hear Oliveira is “Gatekeeper” and that’s fairly true, he’s never going to be a champ, but he’s always going to be facing top level competition, and if you have the skills he has, which is very fast kickboxing and a fairly good ground game, he’s about as mixed as you can get, but he just doesn’t seem to push past a certain barrier of competition which probably explains why he’s facing Sobotta, someone who is still finding his footing in the UFC. Sobotta Is coming back after a two year hiatus due to injury, he’s most likely going to experience some form of ring rust and that alone kinda makes me think that Oliveira is going to have the upper hand, that and the fact that Oliveira is just overall a better fighter both on the feet and on the ground. There’s really not much to talk about Sobotta, I don’t know how he’s going to fight, I just know that he’s been away for quite some time now and he might not be 100% coming into this. Oliveira via KO R2 Light Heavyweight Paul Craig (12-4-1, NS) v Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-6-0, 2 FLS) - A very tough fight. Craig is a legitimate grappler who excels on the ground. He is very physically strong and his takedowns are just nothing but brute power, but with that said, he’s not a very good striker, not at all. He has the tendency to panic wrestle but to great effect, so lets expect him to get hit a lot before he initiates something. During his fight against Da Silva, he was doing excellent work off his back, perfectly timing an armbar to submit Da Silva with great efficiency, so Craig really is an animal on the ground and will most likely get the upper hand on the ground. Antigulov is a very good wrestler, he’s exceptional at getting an opponent to the ground, maintaining a dominant position and just look for a submission to great effect, his two wins in the UFC have been by R1 Sub, one of those fighters being a black belt in BJJ you’d think that there would be more resistance during that fight but nope, Antigulov absolutely dominated that fight and it was beautiful. With that said, his two losses have been by knockouts, which only tells me his striking capabilities and defences are not there. There is a twist in this fight though, and that’s the fact that Craig is much larger, and has a huge reach advantage, so there is a slight chance there will be a knockout somewhere here, and if there is, it’ll be all in Craigs favour, its a very tricky fight to predict but in all honesty I feel like Craig is going to use his strikes to win. It’s gonna be a fairly technical fight and I can’t wait. Craig via UD Women’s Strawweight Carla Esparza (#7) (16-6-0, 3 FWS) v Marina Rodriguez (#9) (12-0-2, 12 FWS) - A very good matchup for both fighters. Esparza has been around for a very long time and that experience adds up, she might not be the most exciting fighter in the world but she’s highly effective at what she does best, and what she does well is her ground game, she isn’t a submission artist by any extent of the imagination, but she’s a dominant fighter on the ground, her ground and pound, her control over her opponents and her cardio hold up exceptionally well over three rounds, I don’t expect a finish to happen but I do expect Esparza to keep up a very high pace and never give Rodriguez room to recover or adjust. Her stand up game is fairly good, she’s great in the clinch where she can land effective elbows, but no matter the fight, she’ll always try to get it to the ground where she’s most comfortable. Rodriguez is an exceptional striker, she could be well on the way to greatness. She is a very efficient Muay Thai specialist who is great in the clinch and at range fighting, those punches and kicks are incredibly snappy, but she’s got one big gap in her fighting style and that’s her ground game, she doesn’t have one, Calvillo took her down three times in their fight, that’s three too many and i sincerely hope she worked on her takedown defence since then. I can’t exactly predict how this fight will go because it seems like your average striker v grappler fight, so it really depends on who executes their game plan better. If Esparza manages to just ragdoll Rodriguez and maintain a dominant position, she’s got this, but if Rodriguez has worked on her ground game a lot since her last fight, which i sincerely hope she did, then she’s going to easily get the cleaner shots in on the feet. Very much a coin toss, but i’m gonna go with Esparza on this one. Her wrestling is just so much better and will be such an advantage during this fight. Esparza via UD Heavyweight Fabricio Werdum (23-9-1, 2 FLS) v Alexander Gustafsson (18-6-0, 2 FLS) - This is an interesting fight. Werdum did not look good in his return to the octagon this year, he looked like a walmart dad that was publicly intoxicated, took off his shirt and said “lets bang but only slightly, my kids watching” It’s very clear to say that Werdum's time is over, he needs to retire after this fight, regardless if he wins by a 10 second knockout by a flying spinning back kick. He needs to go, he’s not fit for the UFC anymore. The only threat I can see from Werdum is the ground, but even then that’s a stretch. His return fight against Oleinik was like taking the most minimal, babiest steps to getting back to the game, but Gustafsson is a different force of nature. Gustafsson is moving up to heavyweight after a relatively rough end in Light Heavyweight, it was clear that his mind wasn’t really into it any more, and i hope he has revitalized his love and hunger for the sport. We haven’t seen Gustafsson in heavyweight before, so it’ll be interesting to see if he has the cardio and the muscle mass to be able to match Werdum’s obviously larger and thicker frame. Gustafsson has excellent boxing, he has displayed beautiful distance management and hand speed, it all seemingly comes naturally to him and he executes combos beautifully. He’s not gonna have any issue on the feet against Werdum, but if Werdum has indeed changed substantially since his last fight, and he has worked on his cardio, that’s a whole different story. There’s a lot of “what ifs” during this fight, but for the sake of backing my boy, I gotta go with Gustafsson on this one. Gustafsson via KO R1 Co-Main Event Light Heavyweight Mauricio Rua (#15) (26-11-1, NS) v Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-6-0, NS) - Is this bellator? Much respect to both fighters but jeez they’re both just really, really old. Rua is a powerhouse when it comes to his kickboxing, he’s absolutely destructive on his feet but recently it seems that he’s slowed down and his cardio is just not there any more. Rua still has tremendous punching power and is still very much a threat on the feet, especially against the ever aging Nogueira, who recently got knocked out by Spann, so his chin is certainly not there any more. Nogueira has been around for a very long time, and he has been a dominant fighter back in the day, but unfortunately the younger generation of fighters are catching up and I don’t think he can hold back that tidal wave much longer. There’s not a lot to talk about with this fight really. Just let these dudes bang. Rua via KO R1 Main Event Middleweight Robert Whittaker (#2) (20-5-0, NS) v Darren Till (#7) (18-2-1, NS) - This is an interesting fight to say the least and i’m no doubt going to stir a cauldron of shit by saying what i’m about to say. Till is not ready for Whittaker. Whittaker was a champion for a reason, his rise to the belt was an exceptional and momentous occasion for an australian MMA fan. His 50 minutes fighting Romero has been like watching a movie. Every round Whittaker faced adversity and came out on top, you can’t say that a lot when you face someone like Romero, even Costa had more issue against Romero than Whittaker did. Whittaker is as well rounded as you can get, he hasn’t exactly displayed aggressive wrestling but you can bet he’s gonna attempt that during this fight because Tills left hand is just dangerous. Whittaker is I believe the biggest fighter that Till has faced in terms of just size and muscle mass alone, with Thompson being a close second. But let's compare both fighters' previous wins. Whittakers last 5 wins were Romero twice, Souza, Brunson and Natal (who was on a streak prior to that fight.), all of those were absolute killers in the middleweight division. Till has defeated Gastelum, Thompson, Cerrone, Velickovic and Ayari. The notable wins would have been Cerrone and Thompson, since the Gastelum fight was a split decision and it was quite a slow fight to begin with. Till is by no means an easy opponent, he’s an excellent kickboxer with an exceptional left hook, he’s a huge fighter, maybe not so much in Middleweight but in Welterweight he was one of the largest fighters in the division. Ultimately though, I don’t think he’s ready for the top level competitors in Middleweight, if they’re trying to build him up again to be a star, this is not the right way, we saw how that ended up in his Woodley fight, and we’ll most likely see this happen in this Whittaker fight. Now granted, I could be wrong (and boy have I been wrong before), but Whittaker has proven to put his limits time and time again. We have yet to see that from Till. I got Whittaker on this one. Whittaker via KO R4 I hope you guys enjoyed this write up as much as I enjoyed writing it. If the gifs don't work, or if it looks super fucky, i sincerely apologise, ive been trying to find a decent place where i could upload gifs so i could keep the analysis up but gfycat flags everything these days. If you would like to follow me on twitter, you can find me @Slayer_Tip or if you want, add me on discord and we can have a super friendly chat about all things MMA: Slayertip#7013 And with that said, I hope you guys have a beautiful week, stay healthy, happy, and full of life. I'll see you all in the comments below ;)
Hello! I hope you all are doing well, and are healthy and happy :) QUICK ANNOUNCEMENT There will be no prediction this weekend! That is, Deiveison v Benavidez 2. The reason behind this is simply because i'm exhausted and I don't think I can do a third card without being absolutely drained. I sincerely apologise if you guys were looking forward to that, I hate letting you guys down and i hate myself for having to make this decision, but considering how much the first 3 event a week thing took out of me, I can't do that again. I'm sorry. We have a fairly action packed card ahead of us, so lets get down to the nitty and gritty. (c) - Champ (D) - Debut FLS - Fight Lose Streak FWS - Fight Win Streak NS - No Streak (#x) - Rank in Division Prelims Light Heavyweight Jorge Gonzalez (D) (#1 HW Mexico) (16-4-0, NS) v Kenneth Bergh (D) (8-0-0, 8 FWS) - Normally I don’t like double debuts because there isn’t really a whole lot to talk about, but this is Light Heavyweight and you just know that’s already a selling point. Gonzalez is apparently the number 1 heavyweight in mexico, with a 100% finish rate, all of those finishes being in the first round. He seems to have very heavy hands and really goes hard in the first round, otherwise he wouldn’t have gotten those finishes. Really exciting debutant. Bergh is a slightly taller submission artist who is coming in undefeated. I don’t know if he has a black belt in BJJ or anything like that, but I can only assume he will utilize his grappling during this fight. I don’t even know if Gonzalez has good defensive wrestling a lot so all of this really is just speculation, but I’m leaning on Bergh just to be safe. Bergh via Sub R1 Bantamweight Jack Shore (12-0-0, 12 FWS) v Aaron Phillips (12-3-0, 5 FWS) - Shore is one of the most interesting, undefeated prospects coming out of a very successful career in the Cage Warriors promotion, being an undefeated champ at a young age is always one excellent way to start your higher end career. Shore is a very well rounded fighter who is exceptionally fast on the ground. His debut just highlighted his skill set and it told us that no matter where the fight goes, he’s going to beat you to the punch. He’s got a very good cardio and somewhat most importantly, he’s young. At the age of 25, he’s still got about 7 years of top level fights ahead of him, and even if he does lose, his youth will no doubt help him adjust and learn new things. Shore is one hell of a prospect and I look forward to seeing him in the octagon once again. Phillips is returning after a rough initial journey in the UFC, losing both of his fights in 2014, it looked like he wasn’t really good at defending takedowns back then, that could have very well changed, but if it hasn’t, that’s a huge issue because Shore is going to be all over him, punches, takedowns, passing the guard, anything and everything. Phillips has since gotten a streak going, and is hopefully coming in with overall improvements. I obviously have Shore on this one, i’m feeling very confident about this. Shore via Sub R2 Women’s Flyweight Liana Jojua (7-3-0, NS) v Diana Belbita (13-5-0, NS) - I don’t have a whole lot to say about this fight. Jojua had a very difficult fight against Sarah Moras, being outstruck more than twice, eventually leading to a TKO loss, it didn’t look good for Jojua and I feel like since then, she’s probably got a new striking coach, because I feel like her wrestling and grappling were decent enough, the fundamentals were there but ultimately it’s not a great look on the feet. Belbita went to absolute war and actually held her own against McCann, who in her own right is a damn savage. Belbita showed us that she’s willing to brawl when the need arises, we haven’t really seen her wrestle a whole lot so I don’t know how her defensive wrestling is, but considering she’s a bigger and probably stronger fighter, it’ll be easy to just shake Jojua off and continue to work on the feet. I have Belbita on this, she has the experience and her last performance, whilst she lost, was impressive. Belbita via UD Lightweight Jared Gordon (15-4-0, NS) v Chris Fishgold (18-3-1, NS) - This is an excellent match up for both fighters. Gordon isn’t facing a Brazilian this time, so that’s good news for him, but he is facing a very tough and durable fighter in Fishgold. Gordon is a very well rounded fighter who keeps a very good pace and never really gives his opponent a chance to breath and reset. He’s always in your face and his fast hands and kicks will sway much of Fishgolds advancements in the octagon, but unfortunately Gordon is at a slight disadvantage, and that’s his corner, his team tested positive for the virus and unfortunately that makes it difficult to prepare for Fishgold. He has a forward pressure fighting style which essentially means he can sometimes risk getting hit in order to push his opponent back and deal a bunch of damage in bursts. Gordon is a fighter in every sense of the word, his history with drug abuse and addiction has been told time and time again and it’s what made me admire him as a fighter. The UFC did him dirty with that Oliveira fight though, holy hell what a horrible match up. Fishgold only has a couple of fights in the UFC, and with only one win against Teymur via submission, there really isn’t a lot to say about him other than he’s strong on the feet and very dominant on the ground. He’s a very good wrestler and with a black belt in BJJ it’s gonna be tough for Gordon to be able to outgrapple Fishgold. Gordon is going to need to pressure Fishgold and make this fight all in his control, he needs to keep a heavy pace going, and not only out-cardio, but out-box him and go hard, and considering his corner isn’t going to be there, he is probably best going hard very early on in order to get a finish as soon as possible. I got Gordon on this one, it’ll tell one hell of a story if he wins. Gordon via UD Light Heavyweight Modestas Bukauskas (D) (10-2-0, 6 FWS) v Andreas Michailidis (D) (12-3-0, 3 FWS) - A double debut! Bukauskas is coming in off a very dominant streak in Cage Warriors. He is the former champ and I can only assume he’s popular because of that. If that is the case then we’re going to see a very exciting fight. Bukauskas is a very aggressive striker who has very effective hands, he doesn’t do anything too risky, and the standard jab cross combo seems to be his main weapon coming into this, he’s always in his opponents face and the volume and power of his strikes is pretty good. It will be interesting to see how he handles UFC calibre fighters though. Michailidis has been on the back burner and no doubt would have been in the UFC eventually if he kept up the performances he’s had. He’s a big, imposing, powerful striker who starts off very strong, with powerful spinning kicks and hammers for hands. Unfortunately that’s all I know about Michailidis, and with that said, I need to go with a safer bet and that is Bukauskas, his experience in Cage Warriors will no doubt pay off in the UFC and I can’t wait to see these two talented fighters in the octagon. Bukauskas via KO R2 Featherweight Ricardo Ramos (14-2-0, 2 FWS) v Lerone Murphy (8-0-1, NS) - A fairly decent bout. Ramos has been through some very tough fights in the UFC and over time it’s been clear to us that he’s a very strong submission artist, especially in his last fight against Garagorri, whom he ended in the first round via Rear Naked Choke, almost effortlessly dominating him on the ground. Ramos is still a very young fighter and with that comes a great chance to develop his skills further and adjust what is needed, but from what I can see he only needs to work on his striking a bit more, as his ground game is absolutely beautiful at the moment. Murphy got absolutely mauled in his debut against Zubaira Tukhugov, he didn’t really have a chance to show off his skills so I can’t really talk that much about his octagon experience in a positive note, but prior to that, he was undefeated and looked like a great prospect from England. I feel like this fight might be similar to Murphy’s debut, Ramos will be looking for takedowns, but the question is, has Murphy worked on his wrestling since his debut? That’s the big question here, if he hasn’t, then Ramos is just going to effortlessly defeat him. I got Ramos on this one. Ramos via Sub R2 Middleweight John Phillips (22-9-0, NS) v Khazmat Chimaev (D) (6-0-0, 6 FWS) - What an exciting debutant! Phillips has 20 knockouts on his record, that’s incredibly impressive and just goes to show that his mindset coming into fights is to never leave it to the judges. We have yet to see him finish an opponent in the third round. Despite his rough 3 Fight Lose Streak prior to his win, he is still a very dangerous boxer and if he lands some shots, it’s going to be bad news for his opponent. Chimaev is a very interesting fighter, and a favourite on the betting odds, it makes me wonder what makes this fighter so attractive to the betters. It is because he’s undefeated? Because he’s a finisher? Whatever the case, I wouldn’t jump on that hype train so quick, yes, it’s fair to say that Phillips isn’t excellent on the ground, and with Chimaev being a strong grappler, it lays in Chimaevs favour, but what if Phillip lands some clean shots? This is an interesting bout and really anything could happen. Its a tough prediction to make, I guess if Chimaev is indeed a hype fighter coming into this, I guess this is a better time than any to see him perform, but for now, I’ll stick with Phillips. Phillips via KO R1 Main Card Welterweight Abdul Razzak Alhassan (10-1-0, 3 FWS) v Mounir Lazzez (D) (9-1-0, 2 FWS) - What. A. Banger! Razzak Alhassan has been in the news for some horrible stuff, and I absolutely feel sorry for the guy, I won’t speak of his unfortunate situation because it is not my place to, but what I will say is that since joining the UFC, time after time he has impressed me, he is the first round king, who carries power, speed, and explosiveness in everything he does. His hand speed is incredible, and it will carry him for a long time. Lazzez is coming in as a hot prospect, coming off two very significant KO’s in smaller promotions, He is the only local fighter on this card, which is great because talent is found everywhere and it just means the sport has expanded from the mainstream areas. I haven’t seen a lot of Lazzez however but really, the spotlight here is on Razzak Alhassan and I for one can’t wait to see the next highlight! Very confident with this prediction. Razzak Alhassan is simply going to beat Lazzez to the punch, literally. Razzak Alhassan via KO R1 Women’s Flyweight Molly McCann (10-2-0, 3 FWS) v Taila Santos (15-1-0, NS) - I was never really a fan of either of these fighters, up until McCann fought Priscilia Cachoeira, and holy shit did she dominate, she showed us a whole new side of her and its ferocious. She’s not a finisher, but the volume of strikes she throws is large, and she’s always moving forward, landing more than 100 strikes in her last three fights each. That’s huge and has no doubt increased her stock as a fighter. She’s probably not known to casuals, but learn her name now because she’s going to be a problem later on in her career. Santos has one thing going for her, and that was her streak prior to her recent loss, she was a dominant force and a dangerous one at that, 10 of her 15 wins were via knockout which is fairly impressive, and that just makes me think that this fight is going to be an absolute war. I for one welcome both of these two warriors leaving it all in the octagon. I got McCann on this one, she’s on quite the momentum. McCann via UD Featherweight Jimmie Rivera (22-4-0, 2 FLS) v Cody Stamann (19-2-1, NS) - I’m not sure if this is actually a featherweight bout or if Tapology is trolling me, but regardless, it’s a great match up. Rivera is an excellent striker, with a background in karate, he isn’t afraid to trade punches with you and keep at a very close range, his head movement is excellent and plays hand in hand with his striking style, which involves a lot of counters and a lot of evasive movement. Rivera is no doubt a tough fight for anyone and actually outstruck the now Bantamweight Champ Petr Yan. It is unfortunate that he is on a losing streak, but I have no doubt in my mind that he’s gonna fight his ass off in this fight, having much cleaner striking and more technique than Stamann. Speaking of which, Stamann is coming off quite an emotional win over Brian Kelleher, absolutely dominating the fight with excellent takedowns and very effective striking, Stamann was fighting with a heavy burden, and I feel like him losing his brother has only motivated him on many levels to improve and fight the best fight he can. That new motivation could be huge in this fight, but I feel like Rivera has the weaponry and technique to handle Stamann on the feet, on the ground however, that’s a different story, Stamann could easily control him with his strong wrestling. It’s a tough fight to predict but i’m gonna be leaning on Rivera. Please don’t bet based on this prediction. Rivera via UD Co-Main Event Flyweight Tim Elliott (15-11-1, 3 FLS) v Ryan Benoit (10-6-0, NS) - This is an interesting fight and perhaps the only fight Elliott has in his career, if he loses, he’s probably cut from the UFC, if not, then maybe he can be pushed for a few more fights, either way, Elliott loves a good scrap! He may not be incredibly good on the feet, but he’s a very high action wrestler who always looks for the takedown, and once he’s got the takedown, he does excellent work passing the guard, or just goes for a submission, either way, the ground is where Elliott excels and that’s most likely where he’ll take Benoit. Benoit is a very odd fighter, I can’t really get a solid read on him, he seems incredibly inactive, fighting only once in a while, i’m not sure if that’s because of contract issues or just conflict with matchmakers, but either way, I don’t think he has what it takes to defeat Elliott. Elliott has been in too many competitive fights and no doubt has the experience and tools to defeat Benoit. Elliott via Sub R2 Main Event Featherweight Calvin Kattar (#6) (21-4-0, NS) v Dan Ige (#9) (14-2-0, 6 FWS) - Want the world to hear these guys land punches? Because that’s how you get everyone to hear leather hit skin. Kattar is a fucking monster in the octagon, the way he destroyed Stephens with that step in elbow, followed by that disgusting ground and pound, it was the strongest finish i’ve seen in quite a while, absolute picture perfect timing. Kattar has shown his sniper-like punches in almost all of his bouts, his finishes have been incredibly dominant, and since he’s facing a shorter opponent in Ige, I feel like he’s going to focus on counters here, he’s going to wait for Ige to rush in and throw bombs, avoid those bombs and lay down the thunder. Ige has one advantage that Kattar doesn’t, and that’s the wrestling. Despite his nickname “Dynamite”, Ige doesn’t only have his ferocious, wild punches to rely on, he has his high level wrestling, unfortunately though, that’s all he has in terms of advantages, and if Kattar continues to avoid those takedowns and starts teeing off on Ige, Ige will noticeably slow down. This is all just speculation of course, it’s an excellent fight and it will no doubt be explosive. I don’t know what else to say other than I look forward to enjoying this, and I’m sure you all will too! Kattar via KO R3 And that's it! I'm sorry if this isn't a highly technical breakdown of the fights, with this week having 3 events, my time to research has been divided. I hope you guys enjoy the event though, at the end of the day, that's all that matters :) If you would like to follow me on twitter, you can find me @Slayer_Tip or if you want, add me on discord and we can have a super friendly chat about all things MMA: Slayertip#7013 that's all I have to say :) Much love to you all, take care, stay safe and enjoy the event!
Made my First Predictive MMA Spreadsheet - Check out it's Picks!
Trying to get into sports betting more seriously, I know MMA is hard to predict, and these calculations could be far more detailed, and are most likely not reflective of the actual odds of the fights, but it is more of an in-depth prediction into how the fighters match-up. I already have ideas of what I could add for more data, but this is a first draft, and I limited it to 16 statistics and assigned values to the stats to create a score for each fighter. I want to put it's predictions on here so I have some accountability for it's picks. Martin Day vs Davey Grant : Grant (53% Probability) Karol Rosa vs Vanessa Melo: Rosa (71% Probability) Raulian Paiva vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov: Paiva (61% Probability) Marcin Tybura vs Maxim Grishin: Grishin (58% Probability) Leonardo Santos vs Roman Bogatov: Santos (63% Probability) Makwan Amirkhani vs Danny Henry: Amirkhani (51% Probability) Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Muslim Salikhov: Salikhov (52% Probability) Volkan Oezdemir vs Jiri Prochazka: Prochazka (53% Probability) Amanda Ribas vs Paige Vanzant: Ribas (62% Probability) Jessica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas: (Namajunas 51% Probability) Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo: Petr Yan (51% Probability) Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway: Volkanovski (51% Probability) Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal: Usman (54% Probability) A few things to mention about these probabilities;
They use a limited set of 16 statistics I considered to be important to compare.
Some fights should be a higher probability, but came out lower because of a lack of detailed stats available, for example, Amanda Ribas vs Vanzant, Ribas is a huge favorite but only has 62%, I couldn't find a lot of her detailed stats, lowering the margin.
However, it's semi-important to note that when 1 fighter didn't have a stat available, I didn't track the other fighters either to balance it out.
My goal for draft 2 is having more statistics to input to increase the data set and hopefully see a more confident spread in the probability.
Finally, please DO NOT use these predictions to model any bets on, I don't want my first trial to be responsible for people losing money. I am somewhat satisfied with how this turned out for a first attempt, but I won't be putting money on most of these picks.
Post-Fight Update - 12/13 - A 92.3% success rate. Including I believe 3 betting underdog picks correct with Grant, Salikhov and Prochazka. I used these predictions to piece together a 4 fight parlay, I selected Rosa, Ribas, Volk by decision and Usman, and won with a 4.4x return. Aiming to run this format through previous cards throughout this week to see the accuracy using a larger sample size.
Watching Pokémon videos, I can't help but notice there are a lot of Pokémon that a lot of people really hate... and I just don't see why. Here's my unpopular opinions about these Pokémon (in no specific order).
The Vanillite line - Vanillite and it's evolutions are the most common examples used by fans to point at Game Freak "running out of ideas". A lot of people look at the fact it's an ice cream cone with a face and get really put off by that. However, contrary to popular belief, Vanillite is actually not an ice cream cone. It's an icicle. The part that looks like ice cream us actually just snow that they use to decorate themselves with. We even see in the Pokémon manga that the snow can be melted off. Plus, even if that wasn't true and Vanillite really was just an ice cream cone with a face, I think it looks really cute. And yeah, Vanillish and Vanilluxe do look kinda dopey, but I also find that just as adorable. It gives me a vibe of "I have no idea what's happening, I'm just happy to be here". I love it.
I think what gets me the most about people who criticize Vanillite is that plenty of other Pokémon do the exact same thing and I never see anyone complain about them. Swirlix is just cotton candy with a face. Milcery is just a bunch of milk with a face. Alcreamie is just a pile of cream with a face. Why do these Pokémon get a pass?
Trubbish and Garbodor - In much the same vain as Vanillite, Trubbish and its Evolution are often pointed to as examples of Game Freak running out of ideas for Pokémon. I think the reason I enjoy Trubbish as much as I do is because of an episode of the Black & White anime I watched as a kid. In the episode, a Day Care worker is worried about the kids keeping and playing with a Trubbish in their tree house. Ash is sent up there to try and convince the kids to get rid of it, but ends up actually sympathizing with Trubbish. The poor Pokémon just wanted a home, it's finally found one where people actually want him, and now he's at risk of losing it. And I can bet it wasn't even the first time something like this had happened to it. It made me feel really bad for it, and because of that, I've grown to really adore Trubbish and find it adorable. Admittedly, Garbodor kinda loses that cuteness, but I don't think it's a bad Pokémon either. I am very neutral to Garbodor, but Trubbish will forever be a cute Pokémon to me.
The Regi Quartet - Regice, Regirock, Registeel, and Regigigas are quite possibly the most hated Pokémon of Gen 3 and 4. But I never understood why, because I think that the Regi's look really cool. Again, I might be influenced from the anime since I vaguely remember there being a time where Regigigas held back a damn glacier with his hands alone, and that was really cool. But even without that, I don't get the arguments behind it. "The Regi's are just hunks of their respective material with a face". Yes. They're golems. That's what golems are. And also, that's just straight up not accurate at all for Registeel and Regigigas. You can clearly see there's a lot more going on there than just "bunch of steel with a face". They look like robots to me. And Regigigas in particular looks like a robot who's been asleep for a really, really long time, similar to how Bastion from Overwatch appeared in his trailer. I dunno, I just think they're really cool looking personally.
Ack, there's definitely more out there, but I'm tired so I'mma end this here. Tell me what you think.
I am tired of losing. I am tired of feeling like a sack of shit. This is my story. I moved to Canada from India back in 2015, I was ready to make it big in life and thought life was going to be amazing after moving to Toronto. Enrolled in a post graduate program at a college in Toronto, life was fine as a student. I had never gambled in my life but I was curious about it as I always saw odds being displayed while watching my favorite sports(MMA, Soccer, etc) on TV. In August 2015, I opened an account on a Canadian sportsbook (Sportsinteraction), and I was a low limit player. I would bet on Soccer and MMA. I would bet like 20 bucks on crazy parlays, but it was just once a week so I never felt bad about it. Started dating my wife in 2016 and kind of forgot about gambling for a while as love is something you don't come across all the time. Started gambling again in 2017 and was still a low limit player. In 2018, I realized that I was getting tired of the rat race and I wanted to make big money so I thought maybe gambling would be the way to do it as I was good at predicting outcomes for the sports I was interested in. Problem is , I was always betting on parlays, as greed always beat the shit out of my practicality in my head. I would always go for the higher odds and I would end up Losing. My bets increased from 20$/week to 300$/week. I was still okay because I had a steady job and I had about 40-50k in savings. Then I made the worst decision of my life, I moved from Toronto to a small city in Atlantic Canada (Saint John,NB). New garbage city, no friends, a new high stress job (transportation planning), I wanted to make fast money and buy my wife a house(been her dream since she moved to Canada as well). 2019, I made 60k from my job, I didn't see a single penny from this income end up staying in my bank account for too long as I would gamble 500-1000$ a week on stupid parlays and never win. When I would bet on 1-2 games with heavy favorites, I would still lose as the underdogs would pull off massive upsets and at those moments I would think maybe god/the universe is out to get me. I still had 40-50k left over in savings from the previous years when 2020 came about. I thought to myself that maybe this is the year that i get it all back. Then the coronavirus hit and all sports stopped, i didn't know what to bet on anymore. That's when I discovered blackjack, I don't trust RNG so I thought I would play on the live tables and make some cash. The first two weeks were bad. I lost around 15k in those two weeks and I thought I should stop. But the pain of losing 30-40k in the past 3 years and the idea that I could somehow recover those losses convinced me to give it another shot. I developed a strategy and started playing again. My strategy worked, I made 1500$-2000$ per day and I was up to 20k, I was thinking to myself "I can make 60k per month from this shit". I was going to withdraw 15k the next day, but somehow thought to myself maybe I should play another hand before I withdraw this cash, I lost a couple hundred bucks and wanted to get it back, kept on losing for the next two hours and then lost all of the 20k I had make in the past week. I was so pissed, in those moments you feel like this is a cruel joke being played on you and someone is watching from somewhere and laughing at you. April, May and now June. Every day of the past three months I have been depositing 300-1000k into my account and gambling on blackjack trying to win my money back. Some days, I make 2-3k and end up losing it all a day or two later. I hate myself and feel like shit. My wife keeps reminding that we have to buy a house in Toronto next year as she is sick of this small town and wants to move back to the big city and doesn't want to pay rent anymore. She has no clue that I only have 100$ left in my checking account. I do have some savings in my retirement account (10k) that I cannot touch unless I go to the bank and I don't plan on doing that. But I have effectively destroyed my life. I could have been having 100-130k in savings right now but I am sitting here alone in my kitchen, with nothing left in my bank account. I have been having vivid suicidal thoughts for the past two months and I am very close to writing a suicide note for my family and friends. I don't know how I could break the news to my wife about my gambling addiction as she would probably not be able to handle such devastating news. I have a 2yr old son with her and the only reason I haven't killed myself yet is because of the guilt I feel when I think of abandoning them. I have become a shell of who I used to be, I used to be funny, smart and I could always make people feel comfortable in my presence. Now i don't interact with anyone and am always glued to my phone, gambling my money and possibly my life away. I don't know what to do anymore. This could be the end of my story.
TLDR: I recently created a UFC web app that allows users to interactively and comprehensively explore UFC 251 fight outcome probabilities, comprehensive historical statistics, and daily fantasy sports performances for all fighters/bouts on the card. I imagine this tool would be useful to any MMA fans who enjoy the quantitative side of the sport, as well as anyone into betting or DFS looking to do their own research. https://natelatshaw.shinyapps.io/ufc_fight_night_statistical_companion/ The goal of the web app is to provide users with a comprehensive set of tools to facilitate in-depth research on all fighters on the upcoming UFC card. The app is updated regularly to always show the upcoming UFC event. The first feature allows users to build their own Tale of the Tape. Choose any bout on the card and then select from over 100 statistics to create your own custom Tale of the Tape. This tool includes options for fighter characteristics, historical fight outcomes, as well as stats on offensive & defensive striking, offensive & defensive wrestling/grappling, and DraftKings & FanDuel fantasy points. Choose as many stats as you'd like from each category and instantly create a side-by-side comparison like the example below. https://preview.redd.it/kxvnuucm73a51.png?width=1972&format=png&auto=webp&s=3302b02f9ff0c629c17910a91f813b24fcc17ff0 Next is odds-implied fight outcome probabilities for the entire card. The figure below shows all outcomes on a single plot, but other figures are available that only show win probability or knockout probability (with the actual probabilities at the end of the bars so you don't have to guess), as examples. These probabilities typically come out a few days before the fight night and are regularly updated up until the start of the first fight. https://preview.redd.it/eavwe3fp73a51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=a195b23b4426fd60721ab4a7406d3acd04554ac8 Detailed historical statistics are also available. The figure below shows the UFC history of Masvidal. This figure contains a lot of information, almost all of which may be swapped out for something else. You can change the fighter, the statistic, the scaling of the statistic, what information is displayed at the end of each bar, other visual parameters, and much more. https://preview.redd.it/hplndu3s73a51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=15d22421ffef80302a4383568f19247196782c62 In addition to looking at a single fighter's UFC career, you can also select a bout and compare the UFC careers of each fighter. The figure below compares the striking pace of Volkanovski and Holloway and allows for comparison to the average Featherweight pace. Like the prior figure, this one also allows for nearly all parameters to be changed at the user's discretion. https://preview.redd.it/pfgpq3zu73a51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=57026eb9ad1ba9c2e5d1cef6bf4045d653643a7b Next, for the DFS fans, the same tools that created the preceding two figures are also available for DFS-specific statistics for DraftKings, FanDuel, and PrizePicks. The figure below shows Aldo's historical DraftKings performances, but much more detailed perturbations are available. As an example, you can filter this figure down to DraftKings points earned from grappling/wrestling per minute and then compare how any fighter does in wins vs losses and how his/her opponent does in that same category. As a research tool for building your lineups, I believe this is much more valuable than just looking at each fighter's average fantasy points. https://preview.redd.it/mofhngfy73a51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=be7f2b4d166e36544404535d38bcb3051993c52b Hopefully it's clear that there's a pretty comprehensive suite of tools here for anyone interested in taking a deep-dive into the stats of those on the upcoming UFC card. The last figure I'll show below is a simple high-level overview of the main card comparing striking pace to accuracy. https://preview.redd.it/94tuagm183a51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=16e22015737e6b6eca373792abd2f2cec897f7f2 The final point I'd like to emphasize is that all figures are downloadable through the click of a button and ready to be shared here on Reddit or on Twitter or any other media. Many sports have had recent analytics revolutions, but I haven't seen too much growth in MMA, certainly not when compared to that of the more mainstream American sports. As the capabilities of this app continue to expand, I hope it can play a small part in that growth.
Hello! I hope you're all doing well and that you and your family are healthy during these incredibly tough times. I missed you all very much, I apologise if this prediction seems very controversial, there have been many coin toss fights this time around and it was very hard to decide who I'll predict is going to win for some fights. Overall, I hope you enjoy this post, I'll be here all week because well, there are 3 events this week and you guys all know that's my busy time. (c) - Champ (D) - Debut NS - No Streak FLS - Fight Lose Streak FWS - Fight Win Streak (#x) - Rank in Division Lets go! Prelims Bantamweight Martin Day (9-3-0, NS) v Davey Grant (9-4-0, NS) - Day has a very floaty style of striking, he doesn’t necessarily have a great defence other than movement and he’s never staying in the same spot, he’s almost always on the move, sliding out of the way from counters, movement is very important in his style because it allows him to catch his opponents off guard when they’re chasing him down. Now, Day has one big issue that I could see from his bout against Liu Pingyuan, and that’s his defence, whenever he kicks, his hands go low, very low, so it’ll be easy for Grant, if he spots it, to catch the kick and counter with a strong punch. It’s very hard to read Day though because he doesn’t start with the same combos or set of punches the same every time he chooses to strike, so it’ll be hard to predict what he’s going to do next. Grant is a switch stance striker, he loves to switch his stance and throw a beautiful kick as soon as he does so. Grant is also a movement based fighter, a whole lot of lateral movement and explosive kicks which go hand in hand and play to Grants’ advantages. Now, Grant is only 2-3 in the UFC which isn’t a great look, and his last win was a questionable result (should have been unanimous, not a split). Grant has one advantage that Day doesn’t and that’s his ground game, he landed 6 takedowns in his fight against Popov, and whilst he didn’t do anything huge with them, he did land them and in MMA that can be the difference between a win or a loss of the round. I’m pretty mixed on this prediction. I like what Day does on his feet, it’s a beautiful style, but Grant is going to use his takedowns, if he doesn’t then I'd be very surprised. It’s ultimately a coin toss, but i’m leaning on Grant here. Grant via UD Women’s Bantamweight Vanessa Melo (10-7-0, 2 FLS) v Karol Rosa (12-3-0, 3 FWS) - Melo Is a fairly well rounded and experienced fighter who is having a rough time in the UFC, losing both of her bouts in the UFC so far, Melo is no doubt pretty close to being cut from the UFC. Melo in both of those fights, have been outstruck significantly, she didn’t really show any sense of urgency, she became too complacent and didn’t fire off anything decent to get a win, I don’t see her doing a whole lot this fight as well, she just does not seem UFC ready, and she got signed on with a 10-5 record, which isn’t great. Rosa only has one fight in the UFC but holy hell what a debut. She showed excellent and relentless strikes, never backing down from any retaliation from her opponent, both women went to war within those 3 rounds and both have shown that they’re not here to mess around. Rosa is a very fast and snappy striker who will no doubt give Melo trouble. I can’t go that deep into this fight because really there’s not a lot to talk about, but i’m liking Rosa in this fight. Rosa via UD Flyweight Zhalgas Zhumagulov (D) (13-3-0, 4 FWS) v Raulian Paiva (#14) (19-3-0, NS) - A fairly interesting debuting fighter. Zhumagulov is currently on a fairly strong 4 fight winning streak, and despite him not being an exceptionally active fighter, it’s always good to see more talent in a long forgotten division. Zhumagulov is at a slight height disadvantage coming into this fight which might be troublesome, because he seems like a quite good kickboxer. I’m not too sure if he’s decent on the ground but from the limited clips ive seen of him striking, he seems to be pretty good at pushing his opponent back whilst hitting him with combos, so that’s one thing to look forward to. Paiva is coming off a dominant knockout over Mark De La Rosa, but whilst it’s not a huge win, it did highlight that Paiva has worked on his hands over time, and we finally saw a product of his training, it may have even saved his ass from being kicked off the UFC because he lost both of his fights in the UFC up until that point. In terms of experience I feel like Paiva might get the upper hand on this one, he might not have a high amount of finishes but he does have high level fights under his belt, especially when he fought Kai Kara France, that alone would have been one hell of a lesson in high calibre fights. I’m thinking that Paiva has this, despite Zhumagulov being on a fairly strong streak, Paiva might have what it takes, but how is he gonna win? That, i’m not too sure about. Paiva via UD Heavyweight Marcin Tybura (#15) (18-6-0, NS) v Maxim Grishin (D) (30-7-2, NS) - A slugfest is about to begin and it’s gonna be loud! Tybura has no doubt had his ups and downs, but this guy can certainly throw leather. Everything he throws, he throws with insane power. He’s not a volume striker by any means, so his fights might be a bit slow, but just know that one punch can make a big difference, especially in this fight where these guys are no doubt going to trade each other shot for shot. Grishin is a PFL fighter making his debut, and as most of us know, PFL isn’t an easy league like Bellator, it’s got some serious competitors, one of the best fighters are in PFL. Grishin has serious punching power and he has the 15 knockouts to back it up. The only minor red flag is his age, he’s 36 years old, which isn’t a huge issue, but it does make me wonder how he will handle the younger generation of heavyweights that the UFC has. The differential in age between these two fighters are 2 years, so maybe it’s nothing. Anyway, it’s gonna be a very heavy fight, but i’m leaning on Tybura for this fight, he has pretty great wrestling and I feel like he’s going to rely on that a lot during this fight, it might be grindy but a win is a win and that win bonus could mean the difference between coming home with nothing, or coming home with something. Tybura via UD Lightweight Leonardo Santos (17-3-1, 5 FWS) v Roman Bogatov (D) (10-0-0, 10 FWS) - Pretty awesome matchup. Santos, despite being fairly old, is still an absolute assassin, he’s got a 4th degree black belt in BJJ and hands that will put you to sleep. His knockout over Steven Ray still surprises me, the beautiful right hand counter which put him to sleep. He’s a 40 year old fighting like a 35 year old with the experience of a 45 year old, especially on the ground. The most interesting thing about Santos during that fight is he lead the fight with strong body kicks, and there were only two things Ray could have done to stop that, catch the leg, or block it and leave his hands low, Ray did neither because he know if he caught the kick, it would lead to the ground and rolling with Santos is essentially admitting defeat because he’s a very good submission artist, an absolute animal on the ground and that’s the most dangerous thing about him. Bogatov is someone who i’ve heard of before, but only because he was a dominant force in M-1 Challenge, the dude submitted 5 people in the span of 3 years. If you want a great grappling fight, this is it, you’re about to see how technical BJJ can truly get. Then again I probably said that about Burns v Maia and look at how that ended. So either way, this fight will be very competitive. It’s tough to say who is going to win, Santos certainly has the experience and the physical advantages, but Bogatov is so much younger and perhaps can out-cardio Santos. So, this is an odd prediction, but if Santos wins, it’s via a submission in the first two rounds, with perhaps a noticeable change in pace in the third, but if Bogatov wins, it’s in the third, where that change in pace probably happens. As I said last time, don’t bet based off this prediction. Santos via Sub R2 Featherweight Makwan Amirkhani (15-4-0, NS) v Danny Henry (12-3-0, NS) - If there’s one thing Amirkhani can rely on, its his wrestling, he is an outstanding wrestler and almost always effortlessly takes down his opponents with great efficiency. He works very fast on the ground, maintaining control and landing some heavy ground and pound that comes with it. Always expect the fight to go to the ground when it comes to Amirkhani. His stand up is alright, it’s nothing too exceptional, some snappy strikes but ultimately it’s a takedown that’s coming from that. Henry is a fairly well rounded fighter who fought very tough dudes from the get go when he first debuted back in 2017, defeating both Teymur and Dawodu, he seemed like a very decent prospect. He still very much does, that Ige loss was a minor setback and he’s got one hell of a challenge in front of him. At the moment though, i’m leaning on Amirkhani, he’s just such a dominating fighter, and he sets an incredible pace that not many can keep up with. He’s gonna score a takedown, and maybe get a submission whilst he’s there. Amirkhani via Sub R2 Welterweight Elizeu Zalecki (22-6-0, NS) v Muslim Salikhov (16-2-0, 3 FWS) - You guys have no idea how fucking excited I am for this fight. Both fighters here are stylistically pleasing to watch. Zalecki is a highlight reel, a dangerous one at that, he’s a straight assassin! Alright i’m sounding like Joe Rogan right now and I sincerely apologise. But holy shit can this dude go from 0-100 real quick. His constant pressure and ability to gauge his opponents movements before attacking is pretty great. He is also a black belt in BJJ so he has the ground as a backup plan if Salikhov manages to outstrike him. Speaking of which. Salikhov is a dangerous, dangerous kickboxer. He’s got speed, power, and aggression. He destroyed my boy Nordine Taleb, and dominated Staropoli with incredible ease. He is also a multiple time Sando champion and that experience will show in this fight. I am fully on board with the Salikhov hype, first class ticket. This is going to be a very competitive, explosive fight and it could easily be a fight of the night contender. I got Salikhov on this one, but holy hell it could easily go either way. Salikhov via KO R! Light Heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (17-4-0, 2 FWS) v Jiri Prochazka (Rizin Champ) (D) (26-3-1, 10 FWS) - Woo boy, this is gonna be one hell of a collision. Oezdemir has had so many tough fights in his career, starting from his debut, until now, here are the top level fighters he has faced. OSP, Cirkunov, Manuwa, Cormier, Smith, Reyes, Latifi and Rakic. All killers and high level fighters, and he has only lost to Cormier, Smith and Reyes. That’s incredibly impressive and his journey throughout the UFC has not been easy. Oezdemir has this forward moving striking style that can overwhelm and catch his opponents off guard. Oezdemir had very, very fast hands, especially when he crashes forward, He is very unpredictable with his strikes, he throws jabs, then works the body, then he might throw a knee, anything and everything to throw his opponent off guard really. Prochazka has been a dominating force in Rizin for many years now, with a large variety of knockouts and straight domination against tough opponents like C.B. Dollaway, Fabio Maldonado, and Muhammad Lawal to name the most recent ones, he’s coming in with a fairly large amount of experience and hype. Prochazka is a very large and dangerous striker, standing at 6 foot 4 inches tall, you can probably mistake him for a heavyweight at that height, and he carries the power of a heavyweight too. What i’m not too sure about is his cardio, since Oezdemir is a very durable fighter, will Prochazka struggle in the later rounds? That i’m not too sure about. I am very conflicted with this prediction, it could easily go either way, but honestly, I feel like Prochazka can handle this, he needs to counter Oezdemirs flurries or he’s gonna get hurt. Prochazka via KO R2 Main Card Women’s Flyweight Paige Vanzant (8-4-0, NS) v Amanda Ribas (9-1-0, 4 FWS) - I would say this fight is interesting but that’d be a lie. The highlight fighter in this bout is obviously Ribas, and for very good reasons too. Vanzant is a long afterthought when most people think about top contenders for the belt, I could go on for days on end about how her looks and connections get her places, but honestly this is MMA so i’m gonna stick to the fight. Vanzant is a fairly fast and snappy striker who, despite her looks, is incredibly tough, she fought with a broken arm for I believe two rounds, but she’s overall not an exceptional fighter, she only looks “good” because her opponents are rather shit. RIbas on the other hand excels as a fighter, whilst looking great doing so. Since joining the UFC she has defeated fairly experienced fighters in Dern, Markos and Whitmire, and I feel like she’s going to go far, but she’s not gonna be a champion any time soon. She’s fast, athletic and is incredibly good on the ground, and the groundwork is where she’s going to most likely dominate Vanzant. I got Ribas on this one hundred percent. Ribas via Sub R2 Women’s Strawweight Rose Namajunas (#2) (8-4-0, NS) v Jessica Andrade (#3) (20-7-0, NS) - A rematch we all wanted to see. Namajunas made one fatal mistake which cost her the title, and that was she didn’t let go of the kimura lock when Andrade picked her up. Everything else she did in that first bout, was perfection, her punches were exceptionally fast, those jabs especially were the fastest i’ve seen in a while. Her hand speed, and her constant feints and movements kept Andrade guessing, ultimately leading to Andrade to get punched in the face countless times. I feel like Rose most likely has addressed that and has either worked on her grappling defence a whole lot, or she has a whole new gameplan coming into this, but I honestly think she should just repeat what she did the first time, piece her up and slow her down. Maybe even work the legs a bit, either way, she was winning the first fight effortlessly until she didn’t. Now, this is where Andrade gets dangerous. Andrade knows why she was losing that first and second round, she wasn’t active enough, she was waiting to get hit before hitting back and that’s a big no no when you fight Namajunas. She needs to take the initiative and be one hundred percent aggressive. You can’t win a chess match when your opponent is a grandmaster in chess. Namajunas is a cunning and wise fighter who knows what to do on the feet in almost any situation. What Andrade lacks in speed, she more than makes up for it in brute strength and power, and she needs to use that power, wrestle, ground and pound, anything to sway the movement and feints of Namajunas. This is a great fight guys, but I honestly feel like Andrade is gonna win this, I know I know, controversial, so please, don’t bet based on this prediction. It’s one hell of a risky prediction but I feel confident enough about it. But i’m probably gonna get it wrong. Andrade via KO R1 Bantamweight Championship Bout Petr Yan (#3) (14-1-0l, 9 FWS) v Jose Aldo (#10) (28-6-0, 2 FLS) - Its kinda odd how Aldo is a champ despite losing to Moraes, it was an excellent and very close fight and the results could have gone either way, but you’d think the UFC would wait until Sterling and Garbrandt fought their fights before making an announcement, in any case. Yan is someone who I have been hyping up for months now, He is a russian assassin who bangs like Bochniak and has the ferocity like Poirier, He will be in your face the whole time, grinning that evil, cunning grin, just before launching a right hand that puts you to sleep faster than the worlds strongest anesthetic. The only issue I see, is the same thing so many other pundits see, his record, it’s great, but his opponents have been less than great, I’m gonna compare the last 5 opponents Yan and Aldo has had and you can see for yourself the difference in competition. Yan has faced Jin Soo Son, Douglas Andrade, John Dodson, Jimmie Rivera and Urijah Faber, neither of those fighters, at this moment in time, are top level contenders. Aldo has faced Marlon Moraes, Alex Volkanovski, Renato Moicano, Jeremy Stephens and Max Holloway. There’s a vast difference in competition between the two and that will be key for this fight. Yan is a dangerous, dangerous kickboxer, he’s aggressive and patient, a rare mix, he waits for the right time to strike, and goes at it like a uncaged animal, and Aldo needs to be aware never to settle and always be ready to move or counter. Aldo is as veteran as you can get, a long time Featherweight champ, who kept his championship hunger even after being dethroned. Aldo is an excellent boxer, his head movement and ability to fire off combos whilst moving is excellent. I am a bit conflicted though, he was average size in Featherweight, and smaller in Bantamweight, but he’s got a bigger reach than Yan, so he could have an advantage with his jabs and counters against Yan. One weapon that Aldo will certainly use against Yan will be his leg kicks, they’re fast and crack like a whip, and those leg kicks will slow down the forward momentum coming from Yan. This is a highly competitive fight and I honestly can’t wait. I’m leaning on Yan for this fight, i’m on that hype train! Yan via KO R3 Featherweight Championship Bout Alexander Volkanovski (c) (21-1-0, 18 FWS) v Max “Blessed” Holloway (#2) (21-5-0, NS) - This is one hell of a rematch, and it makes sense. Volkanovski is a dense motherfucker. Dude was huge back in the day, and even now he’s practically pure muscle. Volkanovski is exceptionally well rounded but he excels at range finding and target hunting, he can easily work his way into someone's space, and fire off with hard shots to the body or head. This was evident against Holloway. Whatever they’re doing in City Kickboxing is working because its evident that each of their fighters adjust incredibly well in between fights, and it’s clear that they’re going to stick around for a very long time. Holloway is coming back hungry for the belt, and after him relaxing a whole lot during the lockdowns, I’m not fully sure if he’s ready. Now, I love Holloway, the dude made my own quarantine easier because of his streams, dudes an insanely good person, but is he too relaxed for this fight? My thoughts on this are pretty simple, he has the championship mindset, without the burden of holding the title, he’s more relaxed now, but hungry. A champion must always work on themselves to get better for future competition, this is a rematch so there really shouldn’t be too much adjustment. Max most likely knew where he failed, and that’s his distance management and his leg checks, he didn’t check those leg kicks properly, and have you seen the size of Volkanovski’s legs? Thick like a ham. Imagine that slamming into your shin/thigh multiple times throughout a fight. Holloway needs to do something to address that, he needs to go first, or he needs to implement some form of wrestling, I haven’t seen him wrestle a whole lot, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can do that. Anyway, This is a rematch where most likely the same thing will happen as it did in the first fight. I don’t know what Holloway will change during his camp, so I can’t address this fight fully. I got Volkanovski on this one. Volkanovski via KO R2 Main Event Welterweight Championship Bout Kamaru Usman (c) (16-1-0, 17 FWS) v Jorge Masvidal (#3) (35-13-0, 3 FWS) - This is a fight that makes more sense than Usman v Burns, debate me. Anyway. Usman is a genetic freak, he is one of the best athletes in the UFC, but not necessarily the best fighter. Lemme rant and explain. Usman has never been a phenomenal striker, with no huge knockouts, he’s a grinder and he’s a product of years of wrestling, cardio and strength training. Usman specializes in draining his opponents, mentally and physically, he is the bigger, scarier Khabib, his wrestling is high level and his cardio is never ending, he will go, and go, and go, like a diabetic needing to piss. There is no stopping the Nightmare and I am on board with this hype train one hundred percent! Ahem. Usman suffers in one huge area, and that’s striking, a rather large portion of MMA and most definitely Masvidals main strength coming into this. The fight against Covington, they never wrestled, all they did was exchange jabs and crosses. Usmans’ head was incredibly still, and that shit will not fly against Masvidal, Masvidal will aim for that head and fire on all cylinders. Masvidal is on a very quick rise right now, we haven’t seen anything like this since the Conor days, but it’s unfortunate for me to say that he has not faced top level competition recently. His win against Till was probably his last competitive bout, and it ended spectacularly. Askren went to sleep within 5 seconds of the first round, and Diaz had no business being in the octagon against Masvidal in the first place. Masvidal is a wild card, plain and simple, he is very explosive, and his not-give-a-fuck attitude in his fights will be an issue for himself, and for Usman. I’d love to back Masvidal on this one because it’s entirely possible that he can knock Usman out very quickly, but Usman is not easy to put away. I don’t wanna dig deep into this fight simply because as a fan, I can’t ask for anything more than watching these two fighters in their prime, battling it out in the octagon, we live in unique times and this is a gift from the MMA gods. Lets Go Usman! Usman via UD That was longer than I expected. I apologise if it's too long, there will be a TL;DR version (basically a tapology copy pasta) on my twitter a few minutes after i post this. Looking forward to the discussions down below! If you would like to follow me on twitter, you can find me @Slayer_Tip or if you want, add me on discord and we can have a super friendly chat about all things MMA: Slayertip#7013 That's it! I hope you all have an excellent weekend, Love you all heaps, take care, stay healthy, and stay awesome!
MMA Betting Tips and Strategies Understand the Betting Odds. This is the number one tip or strategy we could ever give you for betting on mixed martial arts. You HAVE to understand how the betting odds work if you want to be able to make smart bets and find value. There will be times that you think It’s rare for two fighters in MMA to both have negative value odds, but it does happen when two extremely evenly matched fighters fight against each other. Decimal Betting Odds Explained Jon Jones 1.49 vs. Mauricio Rua 2.65 Best MMA Betting Sites. Mixed Martial Arts, or MMA, has been around for a very long time. The sport of one man fighting another goes back several thousands of years. When events started appearing on MMA betting websites, punters were quick to start wagering on fights. There are many new MMA sportsbooks on the internet. Mixed martial arts have come a long way since the first Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) debuted in 1993 in Denver, Colorado. What started as a spectacle billed as “uncensored and unedited” with no gloves or weight classes has evolved into a polished sport complete with professional athletes, mainstream media coverage and its own rulebook.. MMA betting is now an inseparable part of the MMA Stats @ Bet MMA: Bet MMA is home to the most in depth MMA betting statistics on the net! Check out whether it is best to bet on Underdogs or Favorites in MMA or check out our vast array of MMA stats, providing detailed breakdowns of MMA fights broken down by things like round by round finishes, card position, weight class, male and female, plus check out the odds at the time for every fight.
UFC 250 - MMA DFS Breakdown and Betting Picks - Duration: 1:04:18. Matthew Gajewski 939 views. 1:04:18. Top Baits To Catch More Late Spring Bass - Duration: 14:17. If you’re looking to bet on UFC or other MMA events and are looking for the best sportsbooks, sportsbook bonus offers, and a comprehensive online sportsbook review, then this is the video for ... MMA is ridiculously exciting, and having money on the line turns the dial up to 11. Betting without knowing what’s up and how each bet type works, however, is not your best move. If you like to see or even put some money on a UFC match from time to time, you should definitely watch this video and check out these 5 ways to do it ! Enjoy. Please check out my other video's ... The BEST Online Betting Sites for Betting on UFC and MMA (2019) - Duration: 3:04. Odds On Favorites 1,546 views. 3:04. #UFC251 Quick Picks and Betting Odds - Duration: 10:19.