Belmont Stakes Betting | Bet on the Belmont Stakes

2020 Belmont Stakes Day! 3 BEST BETS, W/P/S ALL 12 Races - Make A Stack at the Track!

2020 Belmont Stakes Day! 3 BEST BETS, W/P/S ALL 12 Races - Make A Stack at the Track! submitted by daddyneedsmoohlah to u/daddyneedsmoohlah [link] [comments]

Help with Pick 6 Results?

Hi, I don't know anything about horse racing tbh but made some bets at the Belmont Stakes this year. I don't know how to read the results. The results of the pick 3 are pretty self explanatory, i.e. "1-2-3" for instance, the numbers of the winning horses in each race of the pick 3. The pick 6 has this result: "1/4/8-7-8-3-8/9-7". The only reason I ask is that I didn't bother to check my ticket because I know I didn't pick the race 8 winner "Hog Creek Hustle", but I 've read that nobody won the pick 6 and the pot was shared out among those who picked 5 correct, which I think I did? Any help would be appreciated. Here is a link:
https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/results?date=2019-06-08
I've looked all over for information about how to decipher this to no avail.
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Bet the Belmont Stakes at BetNow

Every sport was touched by COVID-19. Every single one. Even the NFL had to do their draft online. The NBA, the NHL, MLB, and so many others – they had to stop their seasons and figure out new plans on the fly. Now, at least, we’re at the point where some things are starting to come back. We’re all cautiously optimistic for the NFL season (even if it doesn’t have fans). The NHL has set training camp dates for July, with the idea that the games will be played later on in the summer (to wrap up the season). Horse racing, thankfully, is coming back in a big way, too. Here at BetNow, you can bet the Belmont Stakes.
Visit: https://www.betnow.eu/blog/bet-the-belmont-stakes-at-betnow/
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The Belmont Stakes is going to be the first leg horse racing's Triple Crown this year instead of the Kentucky Derby. 🐎 Make sure to bet on the Belmont Stakes and other horse races at CentSports.com (Link in Bio) for FREE! 💸

The Belmont Stakes is going to be the first leg horse racing's Triple Crown this year instead of the Kentucky Derby. 🐎 Make sure to bet on the Belmont Stakes and other horse races at CentSports.com (Link in Bio) for FREE! 💸 submitted by Tdawg2310 to u/Tdawg2310 [link] [comments]

I'm betting horses with, THE Kenny Mayne at the Belmont Stakes today. Awesome, or fucking awesome?

I'm betting horses with, THE Kenny Mayne at the Belmont Stakes today. Awesome, or fucking awesome? submitted by distortedgio to sports [link] [comments]

The Best Way To Bet $100 At The 2018 Belmont Stakes

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The Smartest Way To Bet $100 At The Belmont Stakes - Forbes

The Smartest Way To Bet $100 At The Belmont Stakes - Forbes submitted by baileybrautigan to gambling [link] [comments]

My longshot picks for today's Belmont Stakes

Hi horseracing fans
Today's Belmont is going to be focused on the star player, Tiz the Law, but there are some really interesting horses in this race that deserve a closer look.
  1. Fore Left (30-1): The biggest long-shot who has a shot in the race. He had a stellar performance in his most recent race, the UAE Two Thousand Guineas G3 and showed some serious improvement from his prior races. His works have also shown that he has taken well to the track at Belmont. I am keeping in mind that he is an enigmatic horse, and sometimes just doesn't feel like finishing a race. I believe the shorter distance of the Belmont this year will be in his favor as he seems to prefer a shorter distance. What will also help him is having a jockey with real talent (Ortiz) instead of the usual Gutierrez, who I believe is the reason for some of Fore Left's losses.
  2. Modernist (15-1): This horse is experienced and accomplished at this distance. He won two stakes races at a 1 1/8 mile at Fairgrounds and Aqueduct. His most recent race, a stakes race at Fairgrounds was longer and he came in third, which suggests the Belmont's shorter distance this year will be in his favor. He has also shown bullet works at Belmont.
  3. Sole Volante (9-2): Not a long-shot, per se but not as many will bet him to win compared to Tiz the Law. I watched his most recent performance in a 1m AOC at Gulfstream last week and this is a horse to contend with. He showed a lot of stamina and had a powerful finish. At Tampa Bay downs he came in 2nd in a stakes race at a 1/ 16th on 3/7, but in the race prior, also a stakes race at the same distance and track he finished first. My two concerns are that the win at GP was so recent, he didnt do a timed work at Belmont, so it is possible he won't take well to the track, and he has never run at this distance.
If you want to place an interesting bet, I would do an exacta, where you all everyone for first except for Tiz the Law, and put Tiz the Law for 2nd place. It'll cost $9 and if a long shot wins and TtL get second it'll be a nice payout.
Good luck! Although it is a bummer that the Triple Crown is out of whack this year, I am just glad we are having our races.
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Expert Picks Worth It?

Obviously no one can say for sure which horse is going to win a race. I mean. Maybe you can. But we’ve seen long shots defy odds and favorites falter. Today I read an article that seemed kind of click baitey. It basically said there is an expert who has picked 5 or so notable races correct in a row and that his picks for the Belmont Stakes are up. The catch is, they are behind at $10.00 pay wall. Do those of you with experience recommend paying for such advice or is it best to go with your gut on race day? I bet long shots a couple of weekends ago and they basically all came in. After that, I’ve had no luck with them. So I’ve kinda of learned to pick them sparingly. But anyway. Are expert picks worth it? Generally speaking? Especially those behind a pay wall?
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Belmont Stakes covered on Key Races blog, other blog. Woodbine Race of the Day

Belmont Park has a huge card Saturday featuring four stakes and I think I have them covered.
The free blog at Keeneland Select provides my analysis & betting recommendations for the Fort Marcy Stakes and the free blog at Amwager covers the Westchester, Intercontinental and Carter.
https://www.keeneland.com/media/news/keeneland-select-pick-day-june-6-2020
https://www.amwager.com/belmont-horse-racing-picks-for-saturday-june-6-2020
Woodbine opens Saturday as well and there is a race with a stakes level purse (over $100,000) which has value. You can get my picks for every racing day at this page so feel free to bookmark it:
https://woodbine.com/handicapping/ellis-star
Free Picks continue daily for Santa Anita here
https://www.santaanita.com/authoellisstar
I’ll also be on Photo Finish with a number of people from about 3:30 or 4 ET until 6. The link is put out on Twitter by myself u/ubercapper and by u/blackjackburner
Good Luck!
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Middle Pick 5 Starting Race 6 on Belmont Stakes Day

Hey guys, I did a quick writeup on my middle pick 5 ticket for Belmont Stakes Day. Text below as well as a link to my blog post. I will probably play this ticket multiple times (so for $1.50 or $2) hence why I stayed pretty skinny.
2/4,6,8/1/2,3,5-7/2,8 $15 at a $.50 base bet
R6: I think both the #2 Sweet Melania and the #5 Selflessly have a good shot here but I’ll give the nod to the #2 Sweet Melania on the pace advantage and want to start off skinny in the P5. If you want to play a bigger ticket, I see no problem using both equally.
R7: There are a lot of heavily raced horses here so I’m taking a shot with three lightly raced horses here the #4 Strongerthanuknow, #6 Noble Jewel, and #8 My Sassy Sarah. I like the #4 Strongerthanuknow the most here with the early pace advantage, but will use all three in my P5 ticket.
R8: I felt like I needed to take a stand here. I need to use #1 Gamine here and I feel like if I’m using her, I need to single. I think both the #2 Lucrezia and #4 Casual are totally usable here with a slight nod to the #2 Lucrezia, but if I’m taking a short price I think I need to single in the P5.
R9: This is my spread leg in the P5 and I’m sure a lot of people are spreading here. I thought about sticking to my guns and going with just the #6 Hidden Scroll in the P5, but I’m going to take all the logicals minus #4 Pure Sensation. If #6 Hidden Scroll breaks well, and that’s a big if, I think he has a good shot at wiring this field. I will have #2 Oleksandra, #3 Texas Wedge, #5 Stubbins, #7 White Flag as insurance.
R10: In the P5, I’m using my top pick #2 Sole Volante and the favorite #8 Tiz The Law. I think there is a fair amount of speed in here and #8 Tiz The Law will not have as nice of a pace set up as he has had in the past and I think this set’s up nicely for #2 Sole Volante who won nicely last week against two nice horses in Shivaree and Ete Indien. If #2 Sole Volante scratches late, I’d still want an off the pace horse and #3 Max Player fits the bill as a backup.
https://onthewronglead.com/2020/06/20/tdg-weekly-h2h-thedailygallop-tournament-picks-and-middle-pick-5-analysis-by-josh-rodriguez-cherrydrank/
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The Top Horse Racing Track Bias in the United States

In the 21st century of horse racing there is no downplaying the importance of track bias. The condition of the horse racing track and the affect weather has on it can turn a favorite into a loser and a long shot into a potential winner.
If you go to Vegas and they say there is a fix on roulette and it rarely hits above 22 would you believe them? Well this actually happens at particular races in horse racing and this is called track bias.
In Pilmlico in Baltimore, MD where the first turn is less than a small throw away from the starting gate in 1 1/16 mile races. Horses with sprint speed and inside post positions have a clear cut winning edge. Conversely horses forced to break from the post positions 9-> 12 have to be far more superior and perfectly ridden to have a prayer. Horse tracks that are sealed usually promote early speed. That is just one example here are a summary of the best tracks in the US and their own Bias~ Enjoy!!
Aqueduct
Located in Ozone Park, New York this track was rebuilt in 1959 and has 1 1/8 mile dirt oval for the spring and fall meets with a smaller one mile dirt track for the winter.
The main dirt track seems to favor the inside speed at full 1 1/8 distance. Inside speeds also tend to do well at 5 and 5 1/2 furlongs. There is not true build in bias that has been apparent at 6 furlongs although early speed is always an advantage to 6 furlongs on NYRA tracks. In the 6 1/2 furlongs to one mile distances it appears the outer post positions are a plus with the starting gate is in the back stretch being a long way from the far turn. A Horse that has tactical speed is another plus at these distances.
On the one mile inner dirt track for the winter meets the inside rail has been historically important at all distances especially the 1 mile 70 yards with 2 turns. They have changed the track a little bit in 2008-2009 if the track is thawing out after a good freeze a surprising edge goes to horses using mid track lanes off the pace. Its important to take notes of a particular track to view upcoming changes in bias or grounds keeper shifting things up but these bias are up to date.
Belmont Park
Located in Belmont, New York this is the largest track in America. Belmont has 2 important race meets: the spring/summer meet, which has the famous Belmont Stakes and the Fall Championship meet.
In the Spring the main track tends to favor the early speed at distances up to seven furlongs, while the races that are run up to 1 1/8 tend to be won by stalkers and middle running stretch-runners. In one turn races stalkers who have the outer post positions tend to have an edge due to the nice sweeping turns. These big wide turns also tend to favor the large body horses who may not have the quickness of more compact runners but are capable of sustained runs at above average rate of speed.
In the Fall the rail becomes deeper and slower than the rest of the strip, which improves the changes of stalkers and closers even more. At the distance of 1 1/4 mile distances the outer post positions are forced to overcome and avoid problems with this wide trip. This is true for the Belmont at this distance regardless the time of year.
Belmont's 2 turf courses have portable rails to protect the inside paths from being used to much. Most turf races are won by horses with solid late speed burst with this track front runners tend to improve their overall stats here.
Churchill Downs
Located in Louisville, KY with the famous Kentucky Derby being raced here yearly this track has some identifiable features as well.
The inside posts have an edge on this track in two turn races at 1 1/16 miles and at 7 furlongs along with one mile distances out of the backstretch are prime for deep closers. Churchill's dirt racing surface is actually made differently than any other track in America. Most tracks have limestone and then dirt built on top of it Churchill has no such base. This track is mixed with a deep layer of soil, clay and organic materials packed down several feet below the surface.
When wet the main track actually becomes faster and in hours or a day after the rainstorm the surface could become the best racing surface available in horse racing. However when Churchill is dry it pays to keep track of the horses that do not like this unusual deep strip it will save you some cash in the long run.
Fair Grounds
Located in New Orleans, Louisiana this track was reopened in 2003 after being burned to the ground in 1993. With the new slots being added to the track the purses have raised at the fairgrounds giving New Orleans a good source of revenue.
With a long stretch that comes in to play at the Fair Grounds the inside posts do not have sufficient speed to take advantage of the short run to the first turn and affects routes along with sprints. However after a good rain the inside rail can be a big advantage due to unusual drainage patterns.
A good note on this track is the turf course~ It has deep roots and quite different from other Turf horse racing tracks. You want to continue to look at a horses form but the horses that like to race on this turf tend to replicate their performance when they returning to it.
Fairplex Park
Located in Pomona, CA this small 5 furlong track was open back in 1932. The tight turns nullify the logical advantage that inside post should have and has a opposite bias in the opposite directing in 3 turn races beyond a mile.
As a main rule the track is fair but the horses do not handle the sharp turns well and the jockey who has a special skill in the area plays a big factor. A recent jockey Martin Pedroza is a dominator at this park and has this very skill.
GulfStream Park
Located in Hallandale, FA this park was completely rebuilt during 2004-2006 with the track enlarged and a small seating capacity that is controversial. The Gulfsteream has a strong speed bias during the winter-springs meets. In route races horses in outer post positions have little chance to win. In 2006 and 2008 Big Brown and Barbaro overcame outer post positions and they went on to be great.
Watch for the cooler than usual weather this speed bias can be overcame. The widely discussed speed bias can play in your favor the other way as well. It pays to bet against the bias when a suicidal speed seems likely to occur. A sharp handicapping ability trumps everything else.
Laurel Park
Located in Laurel, Maryland~Opened in 1911 this track which has a long stretch run of 1344 feet is generally free of bias, although stretch runners and stalking type tend to do a little better here than most tracks. The only thing we have seen is that on this track horses that make above average "turn moves" or show a faster than average burst of speed through the middle portion in 6 and 7 furlongs races do frequently improve their next outing.
Louisiana Downs
Bossier City, Louisiana opened up in 1974 has a relatively fast one mile racing surface and a stretch run of 1010 feet that frequently produces a big inside speed bias. The tendency is even more prevalent in holiday, weekend or stakes days. Look for horses that can gain possession of the lead and on the rail for a big edge at this track. On the turf course the opposite is true as we see closers from the mid pack win more than their front running rivals.
Monmouth Park
Located in Oceanport New Jersey.. A Track with a one mile oval and a short 985 stretch run. Generally speaking this track favors front runners and early speed types on the inside rail at all distances during the summer. One big exception is when it rains the track can have a dead rail for a day or so especially after a good rain so be on the look out for the storms.
Philadelphia Park
In Bensalem, PA.. This track features a one mile main track with a 7 furlong backstretch the likes to favor stalk-n-go types. This track is a little different than most and does like the deep closers as well which is unique when speed is king on most tracks.
Pimlico
Located in Baltimore Maryland this track is the second oldest track in America. This track with its long history is blessed with some of the best trainers out there. The one mile oval with a stretch of 1162 feet has traditionally favored horses with good early speed who take control of the inside running lanes. That particular bias used to be widely know but the renovation helped quiet it some but it still comes into play at times so be on the look out.
Saratoga Race Course
In New York at Saratoga Springs opened back in 1864 this has a rich historical ambiance that can be felt in the grandstands. The quality of horses is awesome here during the 6 week Summer meet.
The 1 1/8 mile oval with a 7 furlong backstretch of 1144 is made up of dirt, clay and sandy loam with a limestone base. That composition makes it one of the fastest tracks in the country. The race course also has 2 turf tracks as well. Watch the inside post on 1 1/8 as they seem to have a good bias here. Early speed is usually good at sprint distances the outer post do really well at 6 to 7 furlongs especially when the track is drying out after a substantial rain.
Synthetic Tracks~ the new wave of Horse Racing
Keeneland
Here in Lexington, Kentucky this track has been around since 1936. Here are some key points to look for:
When lacking clear evidence of a pronounced bias, players should only slightly favor stalkers over front runners and deep closers. Horses that perform well on other synthetic surfaces tend to do very well here. We have also seen that horses that run well on dirt tracks in FLA, NY, and New Orleans bring to Keeneland good stamina and will hold as well as improve their dirt form here.
Watch this track for bias to show up because some will show out of nowhere and really stand out for awhile due to the maintenance of these synthetic surfaces. Watch for shifts to a preferred running style. One last tip is that horses bred to handle grass especially races beyond one mile on grass do very well on this track.
Turfway Park
In Florence Kentucky this track can produce different biases due to seasonal changes.
During the late summeearly fall meets the come before the three week fall meet at Keeneland this track does not have any major bias at all. During the Winter session this track can go through radical shifts favoring speed horses to a track in which the horse that moves last wins so watch carefully. Some handicappers will get frustrated at the flip flops with bias but it can be some of the best long shots tracks around.
Woodbine
Rexdale, in Ontarion Canada this old track has been around since 1874 right by downtown Toronto. Some Key points to follow are:
The horses run from April to December and through the cold weather months you will not see much bias at all. Expect some periods of uneven days during the warmest Summer days. The maintenance can send a bias into a extreme condition so just watch the races and take notes when this happens. Another key note is that horses that transfer from this track to Gulfstream or Fair Grounds in New Orleans tend to hold their form very well.
Arlington Park
Located in Arlington Heights Illinois this track burned to the ground in 1985 and was rebuilt in 1989 into a beautiful track.
Arlington should expect mid pack closers along with stalkers to maintain a built in edge at all distances. Over the last decade the beautiful grass course has favored horses with tactical speed more than confirmed stretch runners that dominate grass racing on the majority turf courses.
Santa Anita Park
In Arcadia California a one mile oval with a small stretch of 900 feet has a surface that favors outside lane bias. The 2008 Breeders cup proved that this surface can be manipulated to present a strong closers track bias without an precondition caused by weather.
Pay close attention to any sudden shifts that will provide a deep closer with the advantage that is not found at most synthetic tracks.
Hollywood Park
In Inglewood CA there are a few key points to consider at this horse racing track. Through the prior seasons of dirt racing Hollywood has had a dead rail or a sticky inside post position issue especially in sprints. On the cushion track there was no bias on inside post.
Del Mar
In Del Mar California this seaside track was open in 1937. The better maintained track of the years to come should favor mid pack closers and deep closers through much of the meet at all distances.
Golden Gate Fields
In Albany CA will have more racing dates than previous years with Bay Meadows shutting down. There is not a big bias at this track but some things to note are when the track has played a noticeable bias the trend has been to favor stretch running horses and in some cases stretch runners in the middle of the pack. Take note of the leading Jockey there Russell Blaze as he approaches the race and how he rides he is a great indicator of bias. You can use this tip for any track because some of the top jockeys can tell the biases quickly.
Use these tips the next time you are handicapping a track and you will see your profits soar. Always be on the look out for new biases that appear and watch the race closely to see what the winning horses are doing. Good Luck and Happy Handicapping.
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Two great stakes at Woodbine, Ogden Phipps Stakes and more for Saturday

There’s a great series of races at Woodbine Saturday starting with the Woodstock Stakes, followed by the Star Shoot Stakes and a wide open starter allowance. The Woodstock is the Race of the Day for Woodbine and the other two are part of the Key Races & Bets blog, which also includes the Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont.
https://woodbine.com/handicapping/ellis-star
https://www.amwager.com/woodbine-belmont-and-gulfstream-horse-racing-picks-for-saturday-june-13-2020
The Louisville Stakes at Churchill Downs is a wide open affair and there are couple of horses I really like which open at double digit odds. You can read that blog here
https://www.keeneland.com/media/news/keeneland-select-pick-day-june-13-2020
Race of the day analysis for Santa Anita is here
https://www.santaanita.com/authoellisstar
Good Luck!
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First Saturday in May

First Saturday in May
The last delay of the Kentucky Derby was in 1945, which was for a national ban on horse racing that lasted 6 months. Now comes 2020 and a whole new era for horse racing and the world as a whole- new fears, concerns, coupled with political ideologies and whatever else the conspiracy theorists can throw at the masses.
As we approach on the first Saturday in May, instead of getting excited about a Bob Baffert entry that ran a huge Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby, we wonder when we will see tracks besides Tampa Bay Downs, Los Alamitos, Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park. I suppose I should give honorable mentions to Will Rogers Downs, and Fonner Park helping keep the action hunting horseplayer happy. For the first time in 20 years, the first Saturday in May for me, will be a day for some live action bets at Oaklawn Park- a split Arkansas Derby and some work around my house. Not because I do not enjoy Oaklawn Park, but because horse racing had an opportunity to exploit its best product to the entire world and I am quite frankly sad this is what we get.
A split division Arkansas Derby feels like 1 solid race that should have had 14 entries for a great wagering opportunity. The “B” division is lackluster and reminds me of a field of what if’s and could be’s that by the time the Kentucky Derby comes around in September. Charlatan is a huge morning line favorite with the triple digit Beyer’s but after that, what is left? This could be a 3-horse race with Gouverneur Morris, Shooters Shoot and Charlatan. Let us pretend they move those 3 to the 13th race and you have a 14-horse field full of questions and hope. Sure, Code Runner and Saratogian feel outclassed, but all the big races have a few that do not belong, so we leave them in for the sake of being here. Imagine the battle that ensues on this spotlight day. Charlatan vs Nadal vs King Guillermo vs Storm the Court vs Wells Bayou vs Taishan with Farmington Road trying to close late?
Now that ladies and gentlemen is a race that draws fans, captures imaginations and brings the best aspect of horse racing wagering to the general public. Big field, with value opportunities. Just typing this what could have been match up, excites me and would have won me over for this Saturday. Instead we get a Grade 3 type Arkansas Derby in race 11, a nice Oaklawn Handicap in race 12 and what should still be a solid Grade 1 race in the real Arkansas Derby.
So, I return to my thoughts of the first Saturday in May and beyond looking to a summer of question and doubt of what we will see, NYRA at Belmont, The Great Race Place or Where the Turf Meets the Surf. Are we witnessing the slow bleed out of Arlington Park and a summer with no Saratoga? With every sport idled for this pandemic, horse racing had the spotlight for the hour, and what they have done with it, saddens me for what could have been. Will we see a run for the Roses, hear the roar of Pimlico, or the drama of the Belmont, have we witnessed our last Arlington Million and Beverly D Stakes? Sure, state and local governments have prevented some tracks from running, but those that are, have fully they seized their opportunities with this audience?
Eventually we will see a Triple Crown race, and for me, for 2020 it has lost its appeal, even as a lifelong horse racing fan, and not because of memories or folklore of the greats, but because of what was possible for the growth of the sport, and the way it was handled. When sports return, we will go back to our mediocre handles and be content with small purses wondering what it will take for horse racing to grow once again. Perhaps I am too romantic for horse racing and captured by my own memories and emotions of yesteryear. Wanting to feel normal and watch the world experience the greatest 1.25-mile race in the world, in May with all the mystery that surrounds the horses, the pedigrees and their connections. In a time when horse racing had it all, did they have anything?
Bryan Doranski is a freelance columnist, and active horseplayer, frequently seen in National Horseplayer Championship tournaments, and cash contests. Visit him on Twitter (@BDHorseplayer) and accepting of opportunities for columns regarding horse playing, contests and wagering.
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Preview of the Hollywood Derby and lots more


Saturday November 30, 2019
Aqueduct Racetrack
Race: 7 (2:46 PM EST Post)
Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship
Fully Vested was a close up third in the “Belmont” Sprint Championship run in a smoking 1:07.1 and scored a 100 BSF in the process. This five year old gelding by Discreet Cat beat mid level optionals two back also in “racehorse” time. Looks best in a weakly drawn field…………………….Dubini is just 1 for his last 11 but has hit the board seven times, including coming from way back to win the Laurel Dash Stakes two back. Lastly, note the BSFs of between 90 and 93 in his last six in a row….that’s pretty consistent…………….You know it’s a weak field when I have to put Vici, who is 2 for his last 19 and 0 for 8 in 2019 in the “show dough” slot.

Race: 8 (3:15 PM EST Post)
The Discovery
Tax towers over this field in money won and “back class”. The 2019 Jim Dandy winner has chased the top three year olds, including Maximum Security, Honor Code and Tacitus, all year long and absolutely held his own throughout. Trainer Danny Gargan picks a very good spot for his return to the races here……………………..Performer is a stretch runner by Speightstown from the Shug McGaughey barn who is 3 for 4 in his career. This chestnut colt will be taking a sizable step up in class in this spot but, judging by his ascending BSF (71, 87, 96 and 95), he could be up to the task……………………Majid possesses excellent early speed as he rattled of four straight coast to coast scores in the first half of the year. This son of Shackleford clearly went out of form in the second half of the year and received a mini vacation. If he is freshened up, and I suspect he might, he’ll be the one to catch on the turn for home………………Mubarmarj is a $375,000 son of Curlin from a scalding hot Chad Brown barn who has won his last two while showing great versatility. Steps up but could be a menace.

Race: 9 (4:44 EST Post)
Long Island Handicap
Si Que Es Buena is well named (means Yes, That is Good) as she has run well in all four North American starts. Good looking five year old mare just missed in this race last year, won back to back Stakes’, then had legitimate excuses in her last (first start off a layoff and overmatched in a Grade: 1). Drops into a very realistic spot but draws the rail which might hurt her a little. Past that, she looks best……………………..Romantic Pursuit was only beaten by a total of four lengths vs. much better in her last two. Distance will be no problem for this very well bred mare (by Medgalia d ‘Oro out of Grade: 1 winner Questing) and she looms a serious threat here…………………………Lift Up is a well traveled, stretch runner by the wickedly fast Ghostzapper who has won three of her last four. Her BSF don’t match up all that well but note the 6 for 11 record on the turf and this race does appear to set up well for her………………………………Honorable Mentions: Empressof the Nile has run well in three of her last four and is another with a good excuses in her one poor, recent outing (overmatched in a Grade: 1). Note the 2 for 2 on this turf course for this daughter of the late Pioneerof the Nile………………..Homeland Security was charging hard, late behind Empressof the Nile and just missed catching her. Daughter of Smart Strike won a Stakes race two back at Monmouth and could conceivably outrun this rating.

Churchill Downs
Race: 9 (4:57PM EST Post)
Golden Rod Stakes
This race might be a bit of a “wildcard.” There are heavy rains expected in Louisville on Saturday and only one filly in this race has ever ran on an off track.
I like the versatility Finite has displayed thus far in her career. Chestnut filly by Munnings showed excellent early speed two and three races back yet came from slightly off the pace when clobbering a Stakes field in her CD debut in her last. We know the Santana Jr./Asmussen combination is deadly and, in watching her videos, I see no reason to think she will not handle the added distance here…………………….His Glory recorded an excellent second in a Grade: 2 on this oval two starts back. Filly by Mineshaft was much the best, in leading all the way, when beating high priced optionals last time out. Figures close at the end of this one………………….Turtle Trax has won two of three to start her career and looked good while pasting six horse in the final quarter mile when beating high priced optionals in her last. Note, she came home the last sixteenth of a mile in a very good :06.2, signaling to me she too shouldn’t have a problem with the stretch out in distance………………Honorable Mentions: Bean is very intriguing to me. $340,000 filly by Bernardini ran very well in both synthetics starts but stumbled and lost her rider at the break in her first start over the dirt in her last. If she is able to replicate either of those synthetics races on the dirt, she could be a menace here……………………..She can’t Sing wired maidens by a wide margin in her dirt debut. Another filly by Bernardini, her speed figures say she might be a contender in this race but her split and final times tell a different story…………………Lady Glamour has some ability but chased Finite last time out.

Race: 11 (5:56 PM EST Post)
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
See the Golden Rod Stakes as this appear to be a bit of a “wildcard” also being only two of the nine colts entered have ever run on an off track.
Tiz the Law could NOT have looked any more impressive coming form behind and bulldozing his rivals in the prestigious Champagne Stakes at Belmont last time out. Colt by the super hot Constitution broke poorly in that race and still won laughing. Absolute monster work last week signals to me he’s sitting on anther big race……………..In taking Tiz the Law, South Bend scares the bejesus out of me. Handsome colt by Algorithms has showed impressible late runs in all three career starts/wins. He is 2 for 2 on this oval, is another who has worked well for this (including a decent 4F in the mud) and he only appears to get stronger as the distances get longer. Serious threat right here…………………….Fighting Seabee came with a brazen late run and just missed behind South Bend in his last, which was actually his dirt debut. His speed figures are climbing and the added distance should only help……………………Honorable Mentions: Enforceable is another who is clearly improving. Regally bred colt (Tapit out of Justwhistledixie, making him a half brother to Mohaymen) looked good breaking his maiden two back then finished within shouting distance of the apparently mega talented Maxfield in a Grade:1 last time out…….could better this rating……………….After setting a quick early pace, Silver Prospector was still hanging and banging in deep stretch in his last vs. South Bend and Enforceable…………………Shotski made a bold move on the turn but hung like a cheap suit down the lane in that same race. Possible threat with a race at the route distance under his belt……………………..Lastly, watch the board 4-5 minutes before post time on Finnick the Fierce, who was wiped out at the start of his last but fought back gamely, late and was only beaten by less than two lengths.

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club
Race: 2 (3:33 PM EST Post)
Jimmy Durante Stakes
Alms was visually impressive coming from behind to take both starts in NY, including the Grade: 3 matron in her last……………….Croughavouke appears to be her main competition as this filly was beaten by less that five lengths in the BC Filly Turf last time out. All four prior races, here and abroad, were all strong as well. A “must use” in any exotics betting situations……………………… Princess Caroline also merits respect off her maiden win and racing debut. Filly by the great American Phaorah won going away at 8 ½ furlongs (tough to do in your first race), is proven at the distance and has trainer well of late.

Race: 6 (5:30 PM EST Post)
Seabiscuit Handicap
Prince Earl has run well in all six career starts, highlighted by just missing in the City of Hope Stakes last time out in a mile run in a snappy 1:32.4. This son of Paddy O’Prado won a Grade; 2 Stakes two back, so it appears he fits nicely in this spot and that last work (5F- 1:01, dogs up) was much better than it looks on paper……………….Cleopatra’s Strike is lightly raced this year but has run big in all of his starts, highlighted by taking down the John Henry Stakes in his last. Should be coming late in this spot………………..Sacred Life is another who has run well in all three U.S starts. I loved his Brisnet Speed Figures in those starts as well (97, 97 and you guessed it 97)…………………Honorable Mentions: Om totally outran his 15-1 odds in the BC Turf Sprint last time out while fishing a very good second. I just think a mile and a sixteenth is a little out of his range……………… It’s been a long time between drinks (wins) for River Boyne. In fact, I’m starting to question if he’s possibly lost a step recently. Note how this colt was 6 for 9 last year and 0 for 6 this year. If he bounces back to last year’s form, and he could here, he should be a menace.

Race: 8 (6:30PM EST Post)
Hollywood Derby
Mo Forza is just 2 for 7 in his career but I just loved the way he won/upset the Twilight Derby in his last. Colt by Uncle Mo showed several “gears” in the running of that race, highlighted by coming home the last furlongs in smoking :11.1 second……narrow margin in a wide open horse race……………….Neptune Storm always fires his best shot and has yet to miss the board as his 2019 record of 9-4-2-3 record would indicate although he is 0 for 2 on this turf course, he must be considered off of consistency alone…………………………I’m going to give Nolde a “mulligan” for his last race/disappoint effort because he won three of his prior four races on the turf with outstanding final times in his last two………………….Honorable Mentions: Standard Deviation is 2 for 4 on the turf, including a pair of Stakes wins and ran fairly well vs. better in his other two………………..Henley’s Joy is the only Grade: 1 winner in this field but is a little too inconsistent for my liking…………….Digital Age has also disappointed of late. That said, if he bounced back to form to any one of his previous races, he’ll outrun this rating for sure…………………….Couple of other to consider include: Succeedandsurpass, who hasn’t run a bad race in five career starts and finished right behind Mo Forza twice in the past, Mr. Dumas, who is 2 for 3 on thru turf , including winning the Grade: 3 Commonwealth at Churchill last time out and Proud Pedro, who possesses a strong late run and seems to be improving but will be taking a big step up in class in this spot.
By: Gerard ApadulaDirector of Equine Operations and DevelopmentKnights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])2019- Record: 77-228 = 34%2018- Record: 107-261= 41%2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%2013- Record: 20-59= 34%2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%2011 –Record: N/A2010- Record: 24-74= 33%

Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Corey Nakatani, a winner of 3,909 races and more than $234 million in earnings, announced his retirement Nov. 23.
Badly injured in a spill in the final race at Del Mar on Aug. 4, 2018, he wanted to return to competition, but the injuries ultimately led him to conclude his riding career.
"Although I never imagined this was how my career would end, I am very proud of my accomplishments and know that I competed at the very highest of levels, which gives me a sense of satisfaction," he said in the release, distributed by his son and agent, Matt Nakatani.
Among his many top mounts were Lava Man, Sandpit, My Miss Aurelia, Serena's Song, Lite Light, and Shared Belief.

**** WinStar Farm stallions Daredevil and Super Saver have been acquired by the Turkish Jockey Club and will relocate to Turkey, WinStar announced Nov. 27.
"The Turkish Jockey Club has done extremely well with Victory Gallop, who is the leading sire in Turkey, and has made a concerted effort to improve their stallion roster this year through the purchase of Bodemeister , Trappe Shot , Super Saver, and Daredevil, among others," said Elliott Walden, president, CEO, and racing manager of WinStar Farm. "We look forward to following their careers in Turkey."
Super Saver, a 12-year-old by Maria's Mon who won the 2010 Kentucky Derby, sired 22 black type winners to date, including three Grade 1 winners in champion sprinter Runhappy, Competiive Edge, and Embellish the Lace.
Daredevil, a 7-year-old son of More Than Ready, won the 2014 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. His first crop hit the racetrack in 2019 and includes multiple stakes winner Deviant, Stakes placed Shedaresthedevil, and stakes-placed Jewel of Arabia. He's sired a total of 10 winners so far this year.
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My Choices For This Saturday At Saratoga 8-3-2019

Races looks fairly competitive this Saturday at Saratoga. With the exception of one race, there should be value to take a shot at. While it looks most of the races will go to highly regarded horses that will be bet well, there are a couple that are up for grabs and possibly offer value that you will remember for a long time, if you can bet the correct order of finish. And as always, I am game and will try to do just that.
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1st Race: Solid maiden special weights field which quite a few could win and be no real surprise.
3)Silver Prospector(10-1). Chased wire to wire winner in first start. Distance was a little short for his bloodlines, but good educational experience. Now others should be chasing. War Front line horses are extremely tough to run down at 1 mile on grass.
8)Our Country(6-1). Made a menacing move into contention but could not run down one of the beneficiaries of slow early pace and flatten slightly in stretch as pace quicken in first start. Adds lasix(which is not the great angle it used to be) but has decent work since, so I will use.
5)Brewmeister(4-1). First time starter for the Chad Brown barn on grass. Owner also purchased Sistercharlie privately and Brown immediately turned her into a G1 SW, one of several this ownetrainer has had success with on grass. He is a member of the third crop by grass champion Point Of Entry. Second Dam, Ginger Brew won the Woodbine Oaks on the AWT and the Calder Oaks on grass at 1 1/8 mile. Only hesitation is it looks like he missed a work as he was preparing for this start, so I will use caution.
6)Eternal Summer(9-2). Another first time starter with good bloodlines. Sire, Summer Front, is another son of War Front, but one of the few who rated throughout his career on grass while placing in several G1s and won a G2 on the grass. Should get first jump on the front running speed and could be live.
Bets: $3 Ex 3 with 5-6-8(Total $9), $2 Ex 5-6-8 with 3(Total $6), $5 Ex Box 3-8(Total $10), $1 Tri Box 3-5-8(Total $6), .10 Super Box 3-5-6-8(Total $2.40), $1 Super Key 3 with 5-6-8 with 5-6-8 with 5-6-8(Total $6). Total Risk This Race $39.40.
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Race 2:
4)Proschema(8-1). Barn switched since last. Three good solid works since last. Is cycling back to best form. Blinkers are being removed, so trainer is probably thinking he will do better rating and seeing his competition.
2)Tikhvin Flew(12-1). Slow start in last proved too much to overcome. Works since has been designed to get a better start and follows the best workout pattern available. Bred to run as far as asked. Came into last looking like he was cycling back into form but slow start caused him all chance, though he still tried.
9)Hersh(8-1). Blinkers comes off after a failed attempt at adding them in last. His sire, Jimmy Creed won G1 Malibu S and raced only in sprints. Broodmare sire, Southern Image, won 6 of 8 lifetime starts including the G1 Malibu at 7 furlongs, G1 Santa Anita H at 1 1/4 mile two starts later, followed by a win in the G1 Pimlico Special at 1 3/16 mile, and a second in the G1 Stephen Foster H at 1 1/8 mile, beaten a nose by a 62-1 shot in his career finale. Third start of the year But works have slowed slightly, indicating trainer now thinks he is fit.
1)Tapit Wise(8-1). Given a two month break from racing since his last, though he has worked steadily. Was a little too keen to go in his last while tracking a slow pace but now gets a jockey who will get him to relax early and make his best move in the stretch. Not out of it, but an underneath finish seems most likely.
Bets: $3 Ex 4 with 2-9($6), $2 Ex 2-9 with 4($4), $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 2-4-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-2-4-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 4 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9($6). Total Risk $34.40.
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Race 3:
10)Amends(12-1). First time starter. Decent works with the right workout pattern. His sire, Uncle Mo, was unbeaten champion 2 YO. Dam did not win in 9 starts, but 2nd dam, Smuggler, won the G1s CCA Oaks And Mother Goose S. 3rd dam, Inside Information, won 14 of 17 lifetime starts and put on a classic in the BC Distaff winning by 13+ lengths in 146 1/5, still the stakes record and 4/5 of a second off Secretariat's track record at Belmont Park for 1 1/8 mile.
6)Fishman(15-1). Has made one start and finished second after battling with the winner(first son of Honor Code to race) throughout in a good finish time. One slow work since but it was more to maintain his condition instead of taking a chance and knocking him off form to get him a little faster. This distance should be an even better fit for him pedigree wise. Only question, did his last start take any conditioning out of him?
9)Glory Road(4-1). First time starter. Works follows a pattern that is probably unique to Pletcher, but not exactly the way I prefer to see. However, should be close enough to make him a factor with these. Good bloodlines should also help.
4)Indian Cross(12-1). Another first time starter. Asmussen has 2 entered in this race and both looks to have an equal shot. But his main jockey chose this one, so I will too. Both follow similar workout patterns and the tie breaker came down to this one has three recent 5 furlongs works while the other one had only 2.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 6-10($10), $1 Tri Box 6-9-10($6), .10 Super Box 4-6-9-10($2.40), .10 Super Box 1-6-9-10($2.40), $1 Super Key 10 with 4-6-9 with 4-6-9 with 4-6-9($6). Total Risk $26.80.
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Race 4:
12)Mad Munnys(20-1) Needs the lead to perform his best and should have a good chance to get it in here. His only win on grass came at 6 furlongs when he got the lead early and maintained that cushion from gate to wire. Now his trainer is stretching him out to a mile which his bloodlines suggests will be his optimal distance on grass, mostly because he has speed breeding that tends to stop unless he gets things his way.
7)Hay Dakota(4-1) Won his last and seeks a repeat while dropping down a level in class. Should be able to sit a good trip and be a factor late if the front running speed stops. Not likely though as there is little speed in here that is fit to run a mile.
9)Coltandmississippi(6-1). Claimed out of last race and makes first start for Servis while dropping a notch. Would not let his lifetime grass record bother me because most tries were against better, including five stakes races, than he faces here. The main early threat to my top choice. Two typical slow works, which his trainer is known for as he saves his horse's energy for race day.
8)Siding Spring(8-1) Has been off form for a while and trainer has been sending him to contest the early pace while waiting until he returns to form. He now looks like he is returning to top form and expect Casse to tell jockey to rate him, as 3 of 4 of his lifetime wins, all on grass, came using that tactical. Drops several levels in class. In with a good shot to upset, especially if the rating tactic is used.
Bets: $10 WP 12($20), $5 Ex Box 7-12($10), $1 Tri Box 7-9-12($6), .10 Super Box 7-8-9-12($2.40), .50 Super Key 12 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9($3). Total Risk $41.40.
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Race 5: Pass. Looks like two very low odds favorite with no value to risk any money.
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Race 6:
12)Somes Sound(10-1) First Time starter. Good works for debut. Sire is Ghostzapper. Dam, Glacken's Gal won her only two starts, going 5 furlongs in 58 flat in her maiden win and then 103 4/5 in her only stakes try at 5 1/2 furlongs. Glacken's Gal best daughter, Live Lively, broke down after five starts, including winning the G2 Davona Dale S and was put down while training for the Black Eyed Susan S. However, another daughter, Indian Miss, is dam of Mitole.
3)Up And Onward(15-1) Another first time starter. Has some good works showing but also showed talent last year while going through a long series of works at Belmont and Saratoga and came back this year without missing a beat. Apparently barn decided to give him more time to mature. His sire is Tapit. His dam, Let Faith Arise, was also a G1 winner in California.
9)Take Pride(12-1) Another first time starter. Trainer looks like he skipped a couple works at first glance, but owner purchased Greentree Stables in 2007, the stable formerly owned by the Whitney family in Saratoga Springs. So he could have possibly worked there and the works were missed. However, Mike Smith takes the call, so I will include.
2)Going For Gold(30-1) Has done nothing since he was purchased privately after his first two efforts. Even those efforts were probably not the way he wants to run. Both sire, Atreides and broodmare sire, Smart Strike, has sired better horses that are willing to rate rather than go all out from start to finish. Blinkers are being removed and this one is not fast enough to go with a few of these early and hang on late, so expect Carmouche to try to get him to rate and pick up a minor piece.
Bets: $10 WP 12($20), $5 Ex Box 3-12($10), $1 Tri Box 3-9-12($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-9-12($2.40), $1 Super 12 with 2-3-9 with 2-3-9 with 2-3-9($6). Total Risk $44.40.
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Race 7:
3)Projected(8-1) Looks like his trainer found a spot to give him a little class relief. While he faces a G1 winner in here, he has ran 2nd to that horse with no help to soften up the front runner. He gets that in here.
5)Sacred Life(5-2) Making his first U.S. start but for a trainer who is proficient in getting his grass runners ready at first asking off a layoff. Has some bloodlines that suggests a mile is within his scope but also some that suggests he will be better going a little further.
2)Lucullan(3-1) Won his last three races when dropped out of stakes and ran a couple good races while facing graded stakes horses. He will eventually break through and this is the perfect spot for him to take that step forward.
6)Say The Word(12-1) Finished third in last, though that field was probably easier than this one. However, he should have a chance due to all the early front running speed.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 3-5($10), $1 Tri Box 2-3-5($6), $3 Tri 3-5 with 3-5 with 2($6), $3 Tri 5 with 2-3 with 2-3($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-5-6($2.40). Total Risk $30.40.
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Race 8:
2)Bellafina(2-1) Most thought the Ky Oaks was hers to lose and she did. However, she spent most of this year racing against small fields, so she got little to no conditioning out of each start. And it ended with the worst effort of her career. Her image tarnished, she is beginning to act like she is on the rebound and ready to produce her career best effort.
4)Trenchtown Cat(12-1) Faced older stakes runners in last two. Good solid work since her last. Irad Ortiz picks up the mount, another positive.
3)Covfefe(5-2) Bounced down to her previous best rating in her last start after registering by far her highest rating in her career. She should rebound here and her works suggests as much.
5)Royal Charlotte(3-1) Has yet to be beaten, so this is the logical step to prove she can compete with this type. Castellano rides but I believe he chose Brown's horse over Brad Cox's horse due to many more opportunities to get live mounts from Brown.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 2-3-4($6), $5 Tri 2 with 3-4 with 3-4($10), $3 Tri 2-4 with 2-4 with 3($6), $1 Super Key 2 with 3-4-5 with 3-4-5 with 3-4-5($6). Total Risk $38
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Race 9:
7)Yoshida(10-1) Shipped to Europe last year and ran a dull race and when he returned still needed a start to fully re-energize. Ditto for this year. Sent to contest the Dubai World Cup while off form and he returned needing a start. But since that start, he is now working like he was just before the BC Classic and traffic problems and a less than ideal trip caused him a better finish in that race, though he was 4th, beaten less than 2 lengths for the win.
4)Thunder Snow(3-1) Last saw him get nip at wire by the favorite in here. But he was the one who stayed close to a blistering pace and should have been caught much easier after he could not get by the winner, Mitole. Nice 7 furlong work since that effort.
2)Forewarned(30-1) Was a private purchase by this traineowner at the end of last year. And looks like his magic is beginning to work on this horse also. A few years ago, he purchased Discreet Lover and ran him in top races repeatedly, finishing third in both the Suburban H & this race last year before finally winning his first G1 stakes of his career with Discreet Lover in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 45-1, beating the aforementioned Thunder Snow, Mendelssohn and Diversify(at the time in the running for Champion Older Horse). Forewarned has two very good works since his last start and he is a son of the late blooming Flat Out, who won his first stakes race at 5 YOs.
6)McKinzie(7-5) Really think he is beatable and will be overbet in here, but not much else to choose from. His max distance without help from a speed favoring race track or being left alone to dictate his own pace will be 1 1/8 mile. Vino Russo is possible but he looks like he is a grinder that will have a lot to do in the stretch.
Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 2-4-7($6), $3 Tri 7 with 2-4 with 2-4($6), .10 super Box 2-4-6-7($2.40), $1 Super Key 7 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6($6). Total Risk $50.40
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Race 10:
8) Got Stormy(3-1) Been off for almost three months, but Casse has used that off time to get his trainee ready for her best effort. He used this angle on Moon Colony who upset the G2 Penn Mile in his next effort. This effort represent a major relief in class from her last two starts.
7)Capla Temptress(8-1) Won last start which was her third effort this year off a 4 1/2 month break. Technically, the class of this field as she has faced the best throughout her racing career and would not be a surprise at all, though she does her best running in the stretch.
6)Zonza(12-1) Her last was her 2nd start in the U.S. and 2nd under Brown. However, her run in the Poule D'Essai Des Pouliches(France 1000 Guineas) suggests she fits with these. Brown is known for his work with fillies, especially ones that start their careers in Europe and then purchased and sent to him in the U.S. to train. Looking for that breakout race in here. Her sire, Alex The Great, is an unraced full brother to Blue Grass Cat and owner said he did not generate much interest in his first two crops because he was American bred which is usually frowned on by European breeders and unraced. But interest increased after this daughter won her first two starts.
9)Stella Di Camelot(4-1) Makes her 2nd start this year and beat Zonta in her last, after Zonta attended a fast pace and tired slightly in the stretch. If it was another trainer, I would be thinking bounce possibly but Brown is patient and runs them again when they indicate to him they are ready.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 7-8($10), $3 Ex 7 with 6 & 8($6), $3 Ex 6 & 8 With 7($6), $1 Tri Box 6-7-8($6), $3 Tri 8 with 6-7 with 6-7($6), $3 Tri 7-8 with 7-8 with 6($6), .10 Super Box 6-7-8-9($2.40), $1 Super 8 with 6-7-9 with 6-7-9 with 6-7-9($6). Total Risk $48.40.
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Race 11:
12)Veterans Beach(5-2) Just missed in last. Has older 1/2 sister that as won sprinting on grass twice with several near misses. Looks ready to move on to next condition.
11) Three Outlaws(8-1) Broke maiden in an open bred maiden claiming race two back. Then ran fast closing fourth in first effort on grass against top choice in last. Gets first lasix in this test with good work since his last. With a better start, has a good chance to flip the script on top choice and the race favorite.
4)Red Zinger(5-1) Working on his third start after breaking his maiden with a good work since his last. Only needs a small step forward to contend in this race. While he is making his first start on grass, he has some bloodlines that suggests he may enjoy the switch.
5)Bourbon Miss(4-1) Another in with a good shot at the win. Though Tomlinson says otherwise(and why I prefer to make my own decisions with breeding, works and everything else pertaining to racing), he is bred as good as anyone in this race for grass, if not much better. There are not many who outdoes a More Than Ready foal or his family in grass sprints and his records screams that. Claimed out of his last start, a maiden claiming win, he returns for another shot at the grass. His only start on that surface saw him break slowly which pretty much eliminated him on Belmont's inner turf in a sprint. With a better break, which is expected, he could make it interesting late.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 11-12($10), $1 Tri Box 4-11-12($6), .10 Super Box 4-5-11-12($2.40), $1 Super Box 11 with 4-5-12 with 4-5-12 with 4-5-12($6). Total Risk $24.40.
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Additional Risks:
1st Race: .50 P5 3 with 2,4 with 10 with 7,12 with 1,2 = $4
1st Race: $1 P3 3 with 2,4 with 10 = $2
2nd Race: .50 P4 2,4 with 6,10 with 7,12 with 1, 2 = $8
2nd Race: $1 P3 2,4 with 10 with 7,12 = $4
6th Race: $1 P3 3,12 with 3,5 with 2,4 = $4
7th Race: .50 P5 3,5 with 2,4 with 7 with 7,8 with 11,12 = $8
8th Race: .50 P4 2,4 with 7 with 7,8 with 5,11,12 = $6
Total Risk All Horizontals $42. Did some minor adjustments on these and not sure the total cost, but close to the original cost. Just drop one here and there, nothing major to keep money management inside my boundaries.
EDIT: P3s are $1 Minimum base wager at Saratoga. P4s & P5s are .50 base minimum.
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My estimate is my total bets on Saratoga comes to $420. That gives me plenty of opportunities to connect on a couple of races since I usually narrow my choices down to the bare minimum allowed. I am trying something slightly different than normal as I cut my WP bets down to choices that I really like to win , instead of betting the one I like best in each race. I took that savings and spread it into higher exotic risks, where the real money tends to be. Good Luck To All and enjoy!!!
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My Choices For Saturday At Saratoga 08-17-2019.

I have always played the ponies by trying to find a edge no one thinks of and/or does not believe in. Most everyone's else biggest problem is they want to follow what others are doing because they feel it has been proven. And in most cases they are right, but then you have to settle for prices that will guarantee you will struggle until you get so tired of losing you either give up or have to find a better way. The way I do things is far from the only things you can do to have success, but fits my way of thinking and beliefs. All of my beliefs all backed up with stats that I have researched, but often everyone wants it to be opinion based, the quickest way to failure. Everyone has opinions but most does not have the same thought process on why something may or may not work, but only a few has data from research that backs up their belief. You can either do that research yourself or play the blame game why something can not work. It is your choice, but until you do the actual research, it is only your opinion. It amazes me the bettors who thinks they know everything when they have researched nothing.
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1st Race: I have two sets of picks as this race is scheduled for the grass. However, if it taken off the grass and half or more of the field is scratched, then I will pass on betting this race. Either way, I will thread lightly as this field looks wide open.
If race stays on grass: I like 1A Digital Software(5-2 ML), 5) Leading West(12-1), 9)Acre(10-1), 3) Anoconda(9-2) in that order. If it is more to dirt, then 1)Market Impact(5-2 ML, Coupled with the 1A), 8)Fort McHenry(3-1), 5)Leading West(12-1), 3)Anoconda(9-2), in that order.
1 and 1A(5-2 and coupled if both draws in, so you will get both with bet). Most likely winners, one on grass and the other looks tough on dirt.
5)Leading West(12-1) Ran against a coupled(1 & 1A) expensive first time starters and a highly regarded horse in first start and they dominated, though about 1 length from missing third in an even effort. Like him on grass and even more if race is moved to dirt,as he has a better dirt pedigree. However, Distorted Humor foals is known for liking grass and loving off tracks.
9)Acre(10-1) debuted in same race as above choice, flashing some speed then tiring and finished just behind Leading West. However, his broodmare sire is Galileo, so he will prefer the surface switch more than choice above, especially if firm, but distance is still slightly shorter than he will do his best at. I have yet to see a Galileo foal that really likes dirt, which Galileo did not also, so I will toss him if the race is moved to dirt.
3)Anaconda(9-2) should be able to dispute the early pace and hang on for a piece. Both sire(Pioneerof The Nile) and grandsire(Empire Maker) ran only on dirt, but both has pedigrees than ran as good or better on grass. While Brown looks like he has him prepared for a better run on grass than dirt, he should have a say in the outcome on both surfaces.
Grass Bets(scratched dirt bets if left on grass): $5 Ex Box 1-5($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-9($2.40). Total Risk: $18.40. Dirt Bets(If moved off grass only) $5 Ex Box 1-8($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-8($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-8($2.40), .50 Super 1-8 with 1 3 5 8 with 1 3 5 8 with 1 3 5 8($6). Total Risked $24.40.
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2nd Race: Cheap claiming race, but at least know the surface race will be ran on. As long as the track is not sloppily, I will try to beat Brown's horse as she has set her own pace in her last two and could not finish in either.
3)Figure It Out(12-1) Will look past last as she broke slowly and could not make up ground on a loose on the lead filly. Races before that fits with these. Two good works since last. Working on third start since a winning effort.
1)Miss Imperial(8-5) Has faced stakes company in last four, so this spot should be easier than she has seen in a while. Rail is normally dead on fast track, but evens out slightly more on off track, but the main reason she is my second choice and not first.
5)Miss Marcela(15-1) Should be with the early pace but looks most likely of those that will continue to give an honest effort. Given 2 1/2 month break after a poor effort in first grass attempt. Possible she is off form as her running lines since her last win seems to be suggesting. Not a great workout pattern either. However, she is in care of long time trainer that has good stats with horses off freshening.
6)Carrizo(5-2) has highest lifetime Beyers which she achieved in last in this field against lesser but was claimed by current connections. However, her Beyers was not much higher that her previous high which only the favorite has a higher figure than that, so that makes her a contender with these.
Bets: $5 WP 3($10), $5 Ex Box 1-3($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-5($6), .10 Super 1-3-5-6($2.40). Total Risk $28.40.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd Race: Another field that looks wide open for maiden claiming:
7)All About It(2-1) Making first start of year off a less than ideal work pattern. However, both starts last year came against much tougher than he faces in here while narrowly beaten in both, so he is the one to beat.
6)Game Boy Benny(8-1) Looks like the front running speed in here and may prove to be too tough to catch, especially on a soggy course, either dirt or grass. Nice work pattern since his last makes him the biggest threat to top choice.
10)Oroscopo(10-1) Making first start of the year and first start as a gelding. New connections takes over training. Has a workout pattern that is slightly off my ideal pattern, but trainer probably believes in the 8 days between works pattern, so will use in exotics. Removes blinkers but horse has shown high front running speed in his starts, especially on grass.
5)Embellisher(3-1) Will include if race stays on grass as I expect him to sit a few lengths back as he shortens up in distance and get the best view of pace. However, if race is move to dirt, then I will opt for another.
1)High Rider(15-1). Not crazy about the rail draw on either surface, but I believe his best chance to overcome that disadvantage is on off dirt. Trainer's trainees also seems to perform much better on dirt than grass.
Bets: $5 WP 6($10), $5 Ex Box 6-7($10), $1 Tri Box 6-7-10($6), .10 Super Box(Turf Only) 5-6-7-10, .10 Super Box (Dirt Only) 1-6-7-10($2.40 either way). Total Risk: $28.40.
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4th Race: Another low level claiming level, this one N/W 3 lifetime:
5)Latin Love Bug(10-1) Edge in another wide open field. Had a 4 1/2 month freshening since last start but has a few decent works in that span, suggesting trainer was trying to get him in top condition before attempting another race. Before break, he won a N/W 2 lifetime in open company then tried an allowance race restricted to New York breds and ran credible. Probably needed freshening to let him get his legs back under him, after 7 races in 3 months.
4)Giant Boo Boo(5-2) Has made 2 starts this year after a 6 1/2 month break. He was along for second in first start back in slightly higher and then pressured the pace to the stretch before tiring in much higher class. Taking big drop, probably because traine owner wants to win a race at Saratoga and is willing to lose horse via claim. However, since he has so far not shown the ability to complete the job, I will place him second. Off track will help his cause, though.
9)Sam's Last Grasp(8-1) Ran 3rd in this class and conditions in last, after contesting the early pace and open a clear lead into the stretch before tiring. Throw out his only off track effort as the conditions was much too tough for him, as he had already proven two starts before on a fast track. Bred to love the off going.
7)Dooley(8-1) Would normally like him higher up, but his running style does not fit what wins at Saratoga. Both wins came after he lagged early in last and came home with a big kick. Has been near the back in all of his races, but likes off going so he will have a good chance at a minor placing.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-5($10), $1 Tri Box 4-5-9($6), .10 Super Box 4-5-7-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 5 with 4-7-9 with 4-7-9 with 4-7-9($6). Total Risk $24.40.
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5th Race: Another grass race, so I have two options, one for dirt and one for grass:
4)Cape Angel (7-2) Ran third in last in this condition, surface and distance in his second start of year after a 6 month break. Two works since. Has tallied 2 wins at Saratoga, both last year against slightly easier but on grass and slightly shorter distances including one on a yielding turf course, but is bred to like this distance even more, once in peak shape. However, his running style does not fit Saratoga's main dirt track and neither does his bloodlines, so will toss if race is moved to dirt.
3) Stella D'Oro(8-1) Another who is bred to improve as the distance stretches out and passed first U.S. test in last, though against easier on an off the grass race that was moved to the AWT. Has good shot to upset if race remains on grass but will look at others if race moves to dirt. His sire, Sea The Stars, is a 1/2 brother to Galileo and their 2nd dam doubles as the fourth dam in the female family of Stella D'Oro, increasing the likelihood that dirt is not his preferred choice.
1)Westerland & 1A) Krewe Chief(15-1) These are coupled and I will use one of them on each surface. Both should be near the early pace and that should give either a good chance to get a piece, at least, especially on less than fast or firm surfaces. Westerland has no speed on dirt because he does not care for the surface, but has been forwardly places in most of his U.S. grass races. Dangerous if left alone and allow to dictate his own pace on grass.
1)Bird's Eye View(4-1) Has the best recent class level race, but he will be going longer than he has ever had and he will not get away with dictating as a slow pace as he got away with in that G3 test and still got ran down. But he should hang on for a piece on a less than firm surface.
5)Local Hero(15-1) Was highly thought of earlier in his racing career as he should promise that never really materialize. But he rate close to the lead and he is returning to the level where he has been most of his career. Coming of a claim and going to a trainer that has a little success on grass, but I do not know if any of his previous claims showed marked improvement under his care. I feel he fits with these if race is moved to dirt, but am reluctant and will pass using him on grass.
Bets(Turf Only): $5 Ex Box 3-4($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-4($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-7($2.40), .50 Super Key 4 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7($3). Total Risk $21.40.
Bets(Dirt Only) $5 Ex Box 1-5($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-7($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-7($2.40). Total Risk $18.40.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6th Race: Another grass race but one I believe they will not move to dirt unless necessary:
4)Alongcametheprince(50-1) Sneaky good bred horse for surface and distance. Only thing missing is a top trainer. However, at these odds, I will take a shot, as I do not get many opportunities to get monstrous odds like I used to. He has made 4 starts, all this year, but is working on third race since his only winning effort. Now switching to surface his sire and broodmare sire(both G1 winners) excelled on. Courageous Cat spent his career battling champions Gio Ponti and Goldikova and this one is a member of his third crop to race. Broodmare Sire, Sligo Bay, is yet another son of Sadler's Wells, but his dam line is responsible for Serenas Song, Saint Ballado, Saint Liam, Glorious Song, Ashado, Devil's Bag and many others.
7)Bourbon In May(6-1) Another well bred horse who fits this surface and distance very well. After breaking his maiden two back, he tried stakes horses that proved too tough this early in his career and several came out of that race to run well in graded grass races, including two eventual graded stakes winners. This spot should be much more to his liking.
2)All Systems Go(12-1) Has made two starts this year, with the first an even effort on dirt and then contesting the pace before tiring slightly. Still think he needs one more race to reach peak conditioning and for this reason I will place in third. Also don't care for the spacing of his races/workouts but his bloodlines fits with these.
6)Honey Won't(15-1) Won third start back, got a couple months break, and returned with a dull effort against a runaway winner followed by fast closing fourth which should set him up nicely for this effort. Another two month break, with the difference being he had average works that indicated he was not yet in peak form during first break, but during second break has worked like he is in top form. Honey Won't's 4th dam is also dam of Affirmed.
Bets: $20 WP 4($20), $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 4-6-7($6), .50 Tri Box 2-4-7($3), .10 Super Box 2-4-6-7($2.40), $1 Super 7 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6($6). I know, I switched up a couple runners instead of going for the home run. A double is sometimes just as important. Total Risk: $67.40
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7th Race: Now getting to a few good races:
4)Candy Typhoon(2-1) Good works for debut. Looks like front running speed with Jose Ortiz up. Pletcher trains a well bred horse. Nothing new here.
8)African Heritage(20-1) First time starter with low percentage trainer, though he has shipped into Saratoga and sprung a surprise before. Good works for debut, but even better bloodlines. Sire, Cairo Prince was speedy and a son of Pioneerof The Nile, also speedy in his own right. African Heritage's dam, Celtic Gift, is a 1/2 sister to Harlan's Holiday, but hails from another Storm Cat sire line other than her 1/2 brother.
7)Excession(15-1) Made one start and broke poorly after preparing for first effort at CD and then shipping to Saratoga to run, a low percentage angle. However, he has prepared for 2nd effort at Saratoga, so I expect a better break and overall performance this go around. A good work followed by a maintenance type work since. His sire is Union Rags, a G1 winner and Champion 2 YO in U.S and dam, Draw It, a daughter of Tapit, ran 2nd in four straight stakes races, including a G1.
9)Fiesty Bird(6-1) First time starter. Started preparing for his first start at CD but trainer shipped early into Saratoga to finish preparing him for first effort, where tempo of works improved. Good work pattern and looks as prepared as any trainer can get one. Sire is Curlin but dam line has made an important contribution to racing. Family of Birdstone, winner of G1s Champagne S, Belmont S & Travers S, and Bird Town, G1 winner of Ky Oaks, Acorn S and 2nd in Test S.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-8($10), $1 Tri Box 4-7-8($6), .10 Super Box 4-7-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 4 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9($6). Total Risk: $24.40.
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8th Race:
9)Ruby Notion(12-1) Since she is the only one in here that has ran in a G1, that being the BC Turf Sprint against colts, I will choose her and make the other ones beat her. She is also making her fourth start of the year after a six month break, my favorite angle to use.
2)Too Much Tip(20-1) In with a real chance of pulling a shocker. Filly that beat her two start back, Minit To Stardom, returned in next and wired the G2 Honorable Miss H at Saratoga at 20-1. She shocked mostly because she was given a low Beyer speed rating, even though she ran 1/5 off the track record for 5 1/2 furlongs, just like this one received for same race.
8)Broadway Run(9-2) Dead heated in her last with the heavy favorite, though it was her third effort since a 4 month freshening. More important, to me at least, she is working on her third start since just missing in her first start back this year. A powerful angle that has paid off many times because I look for them. Will this one? Will not know until tomorrow.
5)Morticia(1-1) Could have put either of two favorites here as both looks like they have peaked. She has followed the same path exactly as last year and both years the Caress S was her worst race of the five. While she ran third in two of her next three last year, they were not her best efforts. Deja Vu, anyone? Winner of the Caress S last year? Look at the bottom race of my top choice and you will see(Morticia, 4th in that race).
Bets: $5 Ex Box 2-9($10), $1 Tri Box 2-8-9($6), $3 Tri Key 2 with 8-9 with 8-9($6), $4 Tri Key 2-9 with 2-9 with 8($8), .10 Super Box 2-5-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 9 with 2-5-8 with 2-5-8 with 2-5-8($6). Total Risk: $38.40.
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9th Race: After a lot of consideration, I will opt to pass this race and look for something more lucrative. Not really sold on the favorite, but not willing to try to beat Brown on grass either.
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10th Race:
6)Ulele(8-1) set the pace in Iowa Oaks in last and got ran down by another in here. 3 more good works and a switch to a track that helps her running style more than last track is known for could be all she needs to get on top.
4)Champagne Anyone(10-1) Is working on third start since last winning effort. However, looks like trainer can not decide whether to send her out to contest the pace and lay back and make one run late. She looks like she has talent, just needs to put in all together and then she will be one to reckon with. Laying slightly off the pace and getting the jump on others should make her tough to beat.
5)Street Band(10-1) Won Indiana Oaks in last. 2 good works since that effort at CD. Takes another shot at earning G1 winner status after less than ideal trip in Ky Oaks.
1)Dunbar Road(8-5) Another one with a good shot of attaining G1 status. Race will come down to who has the best strategy that works or best trip. Rail draw is always a concern at Saratoga.
Bets $5 Ex Box 4-6,($10), $1 Tri Box 4-5-6($6), .10 Super Box 1-4-5-6($2.40), $1 Super Key 6 with 1-4-5 with 1-4-5 with 1-4-5($6). Total Risk $24.40.
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11th Race:
10)Mary's Girl(15-1) ran solidly third start back against lesser, then tried to beat a speedy runner twice in next two, but was no match. However, in last, she drew the two post and inside has been less than ideal at Saratoga on a fast track. The favorite in this race who beat her in last was outside and had room to maneuver. She will also this time. Irad Ortiz takes back jockey duties, another positive.
3)Not About The Nail(8-1) Veteran of this field that likes to win and could be sitting on best race. She has won a starter stakes but not a state bred allowance that she earned more than $13k purse in her career, which makes her eligible to race in this.
6)Take Me To Hardoon(5-1) Looked ready to return to best form when given a six month break. Plenty of works for her return and she has faced the toughest company in her short career. Not out of this.
5)More Mischief(5-2) Returns against same class as last where she was in contention into the stretch, but could not finish the job as she flatten out.
Bets: $10 WP 10($20), $5 Exacta Box 3-10($10), $1 Tri Box 3-6-10($6), .10 Super Box 3-5-6-10($2.40), .50 Super Key 10 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6($3). Total Risk: $41.40.
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I believe I have listed around $323 worth of bets I am planning on making at Saratoga Saturday. Still looking for that breakout payoff for this meet. Two more Saturday opportunities after this one is left in this year's meet.
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Preview of the Delaware Handicap, Diana Stakes and more

Saturday, July 13, 2019
Delaware Park
Race: 8 (5:25 PM EST Post)
Delaware Handicap

Elate bounced back to Graded Stakes form when coming from behind to take down the Fleur de Lis at Churchill last time out. This daughter of “King of the (sales) Ring” Medaglia d’Oro was impressive powering past her rivals down the lane while getting the last furlong in a swift :12.1. She has worked well since and she is 2 for 2 on this oval………………..The multiple Graded Stakes winner, yet still underrated Blue Prize was head strong on the first turn of the aforementioned Fleur de Lis last time out and didn’t offer much of an answer when Elate came to her in mid stretch. However, this seven time winner, of over a million bucks, will be making her third start off the layoff in this spot and that 6F work (1:12 flat) was strong, signaling she might be ready to run another big one here………………….Escape Clause is a win machine as her 20 for 30 career record would indicate. This five year old mare gave the mega talented Midnight Bisou all she could handle two starts back and had several excuses in her last (may have bounced slightly off such a tremendous effort and got caught up in a strong early pace). Leave her out of your exotics plays at your own risk…………………….Honorable Mentions: Gotham Gala ran the best race of her life in her initial try on this oval in her last, which is the perennial prep race for this. This $260,000 daughter of Smart Strike figures to be on or near the lead early once again in here and could prove difficult to run down late……………After showing little on the grass last time out, Promise of Spring return to her preferred surface (dirt), where she’s hit the board in 11 of 16 tries.

Saratoga Race Course
Race: 3 (2:10 PM EST Post)
Sanford Stakes
These 2YO races are far and away the toughest to figure. This time of year these horses’ forms are volatile and can improve or go downhill quicker than a hiccup. Of course, having such little info (few races) to go off of is another nightmare. That said, I’ll take By Your Side who ran the last half of a furlong in sub :07 seconds to take his Churchill Downs and racing debut. The way this colt by Constitution came running late makes me think the stretch out in distane here should only help him…………………..Cucina appears to be a huge threat in this spot. After just missing in his debut, this colt beat maidens in the slop while getting 5F in a fleet :58 flat…..looks next best……………..Raging Whiskey is a California invader who broke his maiden by a wide margin in his second career start.

Race: 9 (5:46 PM EST Post)
Diana Stakes
The 2019 Diana is an intriguing race in several levels. First off, it drew yet another small field (six) with four of them trained by Chad Brown. Also, it pits 2018 Older Female Turf Champion Sistercharlie against another one of the better turf fillies in training today in Rushing Fall as well as unbeaten in this country, Homerique with yes you guessed it all three being trained by Brown. All that being said, you can throw a blanket over all three and pick one as they are almost impossible to separate. So much so, I might pass this race.
However, if I change my mind (and I probably will) I would have to stick with Champion Sistercharlie, who capped off a sensational campaign last year with a furious late run to win the BC Filly and Mare Turf. Good looking mare sports an 11-7-3-0 record overall with the elephant in the room being will she be ready as this will be her first start since the Breeders Cup in Nov?....................It might be betting suicide to put Rushing Fall, a mega talented turf filly who is an astounding 9-8-1-0 in her career, in the two slot. Her last race in the Grade: 1 Just a Game Stakes was one of the most impressive races I’ve seen all year long. After cruising through the first five furlong of that race, this filly dropped her head, leveled off and came home the last quarter supersonic :22.2….needless to say, in taking Sistercharlie, this filly scares the daylights out of me………………………………….As I mentioned earlier, Homerique is 2 for 2 since arriving from France. The gray filly by Exchange Rate overcame slows paces in both races, which is one of many telltale since of a quality racehorse. Her speed figure are in the same zip code as her stablemates (the top two) and she should be coming late once again in this spot……………………….Honorable Mentions: The speedy Mitchell Road, who has sports record of 7-5-2-0, merits attention as well. Good looking mare by English Channel should be the one to catch on the turn for home……………………Secret Message won her last two with strong late runs. Steps WAY up here however.

Los Alamitos
Race: 6
Los Alamitos Derby (6:28 PM EST Post)
The 2019 Los Alamitos Derby continues the trend for short fields this weekend as just four are entered. It almost appears as though the race was written for 2018 Two Year Old Champion Game Winner, who makes his first start since his valiant run in the Kentucky Derby. I’m not seeing a way to beat him as he absolutely towers over this field and his work line resembles an Uzi 9 millimeter (non stop “bullet” works). This is probably one of those rare occurrences where you might see a horse go off at 1-20 odds……………………After chasing the talented Visitant, Mucho Gusto and Anothertwistafate, Game Winner stable mate Kingly looks next best by a wide margin…………………..I have to go with Feeling Strong, who won his last and will be breaking out of state bred competition for the first time for the show dough, as my only other choice is a maiden who is 0 for 12 in his career.

Indiana Downs
Race: 8 (9:10 PM EST Post)
Indiana Oaks
Chocolate Kisses has shown very little in her last three but you must note the enormous class drop she is taking in this spot. $410,000 daughter of Candy Ride ran in back to back Grade: 1’s, including the Kentucky Oaks, and had a failed turf experiment in her last. She will be cutting back in distance here and clearly will not be facing anything near was she’s been lately……………..After pulling an 11-1 upset in the Grade: 2 Fair Ground Oaks two starts back, Street Band will also be coming out of the Kentucky Oaks so she too should relish the class drop vs. these………………The rest are rather difficult to separate but I’ll go with Kim K for the show dough. This $335,000 daughter of Will Take Charge seems to have improved greatly from last year, highlighted by ripping off fast early fractions and wiring a $75,000 optional field in her last. What made it more impressive is she broke from the #9 post that day. In this spot, she’ll break from the rail, which is a serious tactical advantage for her and, oh by the way, the #1 post at this meet so far is winning at a 25% rate…………………………..Honorable Mentions: With Dignity has used impressive late runs to win her first two starts. Note how she encountered serious traffic issues down the back side of her last race but yet blew past the early leaders down the lane for the win….Steps up but could easily better this rating……………..If you ignore Blessed Again’s failed turf experiment in her last, you’ll see an impressive maiden breaking win before going on to beat $75,000 optionals by a colossal margin……………….Sweet Diane has yet to be off the board in six career starts, including finishing within shouting distance of Street Band in the Fair Grounds Oaks this past spring.

Race: 9 (10:02 PM EST Post)
Indiana Derby
Mr. Money is sharp as a tack right now. The son of Goldencents won back to back Grade: 3’s by wide margins at Churchill in his last two. Good looking colt’s speed figures are higher and more consistent than these as well…......………Math Wizard is quietly having a very good year, highlighted by finishing less than five lengths behind Tacticus at 65-1 in the Wood Memorial back in April. Since then, he’s faced an improving Laughing Fox and a really improving Owendale and held his own in both. Looks next best………………Fan favorite Long Range Toddy has been in training, and running once a month for the past 10 months now, and on paper, it looks like that brutal schedule is catching up to him. He was overmatched two and three races back but I saw no visible excuses for his disappointing effort in the Ohio Derby at 2-1 odds in his last…………………Honorable Mentions: Although running admirably, Alwaysmining went down in flames as the even money favorite in the Easy Goer at Belmont in his last, further fueling my speculation that he is a vastly different horse anywhere but on his home track (Laurel)…..Find out more about that on Saturday night……………………Gray Magician is not as bad as his 1 for 9 record indicates. Make no mistake, this gray colt has talent. I’m just not sure how much a trip across the world (Dubai) and then running in the most physical race in the country (Kentucky Derby) less than five weeks later, has taken out of him……………………….. I love Roiland’s running style. Although somewhat inconsistent with it, he possesses a big closing kick which is always fun to watch. Listen, if he gets a nuclear meltdown type early pace, stranger things have happened………………….If, and that a big “if”, Frolic More can handle the class rise, he could be a menace in here as he is clearly in career best form right now.

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2019- Record: 43-124 = 35%
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%

Little Bets N’ Pieces:
**** In the “about freaking time” category Colonial Downs Group/owners announced plans to name its turf course after the immortal Secretariat.
Secretariat was born at Meadow Stable in Doswell, Va., in 1970. He became a global phenomenon after his tour de force 1973 Triple Crown win while setting track records in all three of the classic races.
The Secretariat Turf Course will be ready when Colonial Downs opens for live racing Aug. 8. The partnership is part of an agreement with the Tweedy family, who owned him while on the track, and Secretariat.com that also will feature an annual Secretariat Day at the racetrack as well.
"Colonial Downs is thrilled to partner with the Tweedy family and spotlight one of Virginia racing's brightest stars, who was foaled less than 50 miles from our own gates," said Jill Byrne, Colonial Downs Vice President of Racing operations. "Secretariat's enduring legacy continues to reverberate with new generations of fans, and it is only fitting that Colonial Downs recognizes this native son of the Commonwealth."
"My family and I are excited that live racing has returned to Virginia and that we can contribute by sharing the legacy of Secretariat." said Kate Chenery Tweedy, daughter of Penny Chenery. "The Secretariat Turf Course will no doubt witness great racing contests, something my mother and my grandfather would have especially loved to see. Our family also applauds Colonial Downs for their efforts to engage existing horse lovers and generate new racing fans."
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Preview of the Jim Dandy Stakes and more

Saturday July 27, 2019
Saratoga Race Course
Race: 9 (5:44 PM EST Post)
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes
Mitole really needs no introduction as he has been taking the sport by storm of late. The son of Eskendereya has rattled seven straight, clear cut wins including back to back Grade: 1’s in his last two. This bay colt has recorded splits and final times that are off the charts good and consistent. Note the last seven speed figures as well as they range from 103 to 108. No way I try to beat him until he start showing some kinks in his armor…………………….The speedy Strike Power is clearly at his best game (sprinting) in this spot. After this big chestnut toyed with mid level optionals two back, he blew out of the gate, set a hot early pace and only one of the best horses in training today (Catalina Cruiser) was able to gun him down late. The slight cut back in distance should only help him here. Don’t worry about his one try over this surface being a bad one, his rider that day was on some kind of kamikaze mission as he forced this horse to run a :21.1 opening quarter mile. Between this horse, and the top pick, there might an interesting battle for early supremacy…………………………… Those of you who know me know I like Imperial Hint. This now six year old “little guy” is a running fool while winning 12 of 21 career starts. The problem is, after three straight defeats, are his best days behind him? I mean, his form *is\* showing a noticeable downward trend………………………..Honorable Mentions: Diamond Oops might quietly be sitting on a big one at what will probably be some long odds too. This son of Lookin’ at Lucky has cycled back into top form and looked good coming from behind to take down a Grade: 3 at Gulfstream last time out. With a plethora of speed to his inside, stretch runners like him are always dangerous in these kinds situations………………….If Belmont surface lover Firenze Fire couldn’t handle Mitole at Belmont Park, how will he handle him at ‘Toga? I don’t know… but he has run well, including back to back “trips” speed figures in his last two, so he deserves a “mention”…………….Mr. Crow looks overmatched in this spot but I did notice he is 2 for 4 at ‘Toga and 2 for 10 everywhere else.
Race: 10 (6:18 PM EST Post)
Bowling Green Stakes
These marathon turf races are getting tougher and tougher to figure as the same group appears in the entry box and they take turns beating each other, with the winner (like normal) being the one who gets the best trip. I don’t know about you, but I’m treading lightly in this WIDE open contest. That said, I’m taking Yo Primo, who is another in a looooong line of runners Chad Brown brings in from other parts of the world, for several reasons. First off, you get the “fresh face” angle. Now tack on first time Lasix angle, the fact he is 5 for 9 in his home country of Chile (including four Group: 1 wins), he’s been lighting up stop watches in the mornings since his arrival, and note the final times of his last two starts/wins. 10 furlongs in 1:56.3? 12 furlongs in 2:24 flat? Those are stone cold racehorse times and if he duplicates either of those races in this spot, he’ll be long gone in the stretch………………..Arklow just missed in the Grade: 1 Man O’ War and in the Grade: 2 Belmont Derby in his last two. This stretch runner from the Brad Cox barn should be coming late once again here………………….13 time and multiple Graded Stakes winner Bigger Picture is a threat in just about any turf race he runs in. Still another who should be coming late………………….Honorable Mentions (and there are several due to the depth of this field): Zulu Alpha has won five of his last 10 races and just missed in the Grade: 1 United Nations at Monmouth last time out. This six year old gelding made a brazen, three wide move on the turn but was gunned down in deep stretch by a long-shot winner. Could be tough with a better timed move by his (new) rider……………….I love Sadler’s Joy heroic, late running moves. He habitually comes from 8, 10, 12 sometimes 14 lengths out of it early but always makes it interesting late. Although he’ll be making his first start in almost nine months it must be noted he has run big off layoffs several times in the past…………………….Channel Maker won this race last year and likes this turf course but is a little too inconsistent for my liking……………………..Did Highland Sky’s late running, wide tripped, close up third in his last signal some kind of return to form?.........................Argonne has won three straight vs. lesser. Steps up and stretches out but, with so many late runners in this field, he could be a menace late if left alone on an uncontested early lead.
Race: 11 (6:51 PM EST Post)
Jim Dandy Stakes
Global Campaign is three for four in his career and was nothing short of brilliant in winning the Peter Pan Stakes last time out. This son of Curlin stalked a strong early pace, took over at the quarter pole, opened up on the field at that point and held sway late, beating eventual Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston in the process. Note the internal and final fractions of that race as they included a :48.2 middle half mile and a :12.1 final furlong. Having not run in two months, he should be a fresh horse and trainer Stanley Hough, who is no babe in the woods, should have him ready to fire……………………..I’m not sure if it was the 12 furlongs or the fact that Preakness winner War Of Will, who has had a tough campaign thus far in 2019, is showing signs of fatigue, to explain his disappointing effort in the Belmont Stakes last time out. Either way, although it might prove futile, I’m going to try to beat him here. One last thing, he has physically looked like a million bucks training for about the last week or 10 days……………….Tacitus is a gorgeous and well bred son of Tapit who possesses a good late run, one that he has used to win the Wood Memorial, finish third in the Derby and second in the (nightmare tripped) Belmont Stakes. This gray colt sports a record of 6-3-1-1 in his career and is a must use in any exotics betting scenario…………………………..Honorable Mentions: After winning the inaugural Oaklawn Park Invitational while getting the last furlong in about :12 seconds flat, Laughing Fox quietly made of the most impressive mid race moves I’ve seen all year in the Preakness Stakes, totally outrunning his almost 22-1 odds in the process. This $375,000 son of Union Rags was near last and some 25 lengths off the early pace that day but methodically starting “picking off” horses one by one down the backside, swung wide on the turn for home and finished full of run to check in fifth. Note, at the end of the day, he was beaten less than four lengths. Making up some 21 lengths, especially in classic race, deserves attention…………………..Although running a very, very respectable fourth, Tax found the 12 furlongs of the Belmont Stakes a little too much to handle. Colt by Arch cuts back to a more reasonable distance here and could be a menace………………………..Mihos is not as bad as his last race or two would indicate.
Del Mar Thoroughbred Club
Race: 8 (8:30 PM EST Post)
Bing Crosby Stakes
Cistron blew the doors off of his competition in his return to the dirt while wiring the field in the Kona Gold two starts back. I know that this five year old, by the ridiculously fast The Factor, blew a three length lead at the top of the stretch in his last but it must be noted he set a supersonic early pace that day and that race was also at seven furlongs. Logically, the cut back to six furlongs plays right into his lap. Big work last week should have him “revved up” for this………………..Recruiting Ready has taken on some crack sprinters back on the East Coast, including the super-fast World Of Trouble and (getting beat by a half a length to) Catalina Cruiser his last time out. He will meet no such rivals here and figures bang up here, especially if he can adapt to the vastly different West Coast race tracks…………………. Jalen Journey won three straight vs. lesser before being nailed on the wire by Diamond Oops in the Grade: 3 Smile Sprint at Gulfstream last time out. It’ll be interesting to see if he can hold his form with a trainer change and a move to the West Coast………………..Honorable Mentions: Chief Cicatriz is a win machine as his 10 for 15 career record would indicate. However, this six year old son of Munnings will be swimming in much deeper waters here………………………Air Strike pulled a 12-1 upset when running down my top pick last time out. This son of Street Sense was 0 for his last 5 heading into that race and, although he might run well in this spot, I doubt he does it again.

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2019- Record: 45-128 = 35%
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%

Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Trainer Shug McGaughey said Code of Honor who will bypass the Grade 2, $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes, will train up to the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers on August 24.
Owned by William S. Farish, Code of Honor was a recent winner of the Grade 3 Dwyer, following his second-place result in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby.
“I haven't decided, still on the fence,” McGaughey said. “He's made great progress here in the last few days and I'm probably leaning more towards the Travers as opposed to running in both, just to give him more time in between races.”

**** Omaha Beach recorded his first work at Del Mar after being sidelined due to an entrapped epiglottis.
The handsome son of War Front went three furlongs in :36 3/5 Tuesday with Alex Solis aboard
"Everything's healed up and he's back in good shape," trainer Richard Mandella said. "Had a very nice first work today, :36 and a little change, and he galloped out (four furlongs) in :49. We scoped him afterwards and the throat looked good, so we couldn't be happier."
Del Mar's Aug. 25 Shared Belief Stakes, run at a mile for 3-year-olds, is a possible comeback spot for Omaha Beach.
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Handicapping First Time Starters

Handicapping First Time Starters
Picture this: you wrap up work early for the weekend, print off a copy of the past performances for your favorite track, and head to the track, or the OTB, or to wherever it is that you go to watch the races. You flip open the form to race 1, and are dismayed to find out that it is a Maiden Special Weight race featuring 8 horses, all of whom are first time starters. Sound familiar? What do you do? Do you skip the race completely and focus on the next race? Do you just use the top 3 choices on the morning line hoping you can survive this race and get on to the next leg of your pick 3 or pick 5? Maybe you just tail the announcers pick on TVG? Without any prior races, this race is a complete guess, right?

Wrong.

One of the most common questions in the horseracing discord (which you should totally join by the way (https://discordapp.com/invite/uzdG5TV) is how to handle first time starters. I’m here to provide some fundamental handicapping material that will help turn first time starters from a complete guess into an educated wagering opportunity. While it’s true that handicapping first time starters is a bit different, a significant portion of the betting public struggles with these races, often providing us with some prime overlay opportunities for live horses at generous prices.

This will not be a comprehensive guide to every possible method to handicap a race with first time starters, but rather aims to provide the average handicapper with a foundation to make first time starters more approachable.

There are 3 key subjects to cover when handicapping first time starters: Connections, Pedigree, and Workouts. I will provide information and examples on each of the 3 main topics, and share some of my personal favorite angles that are a bit more nuanced at the end of the article.

Connections:
Connections are likely the most obvious and easiest place to start when evaluating a first time starter. By connections, I am referring to the owner, trainer, and jockey. The trainer is by far the most important piece of the connections in terms of getting horses ready for racing. Some trainers are renowned for having their first time starters live and ready to fire (Brown, Ward, etc), whereas other trainers are not as focused on winning at first asking (Mott, Chug). Instead, they will race their horses into top condition and are much more likely to win second or third time out. Look up the relevant stats for the trainer of the horse in question to see what his strike rate is with first time starters. DRF Formulator is the best resource available for looking up trainer stats, but most PPs will provide relevant stats in some fashion.

Knowing that a trainer hits at 15% with first time starters is an okay starting point, but it really helps to dive deeper. Some trainers are elite at getting first time starters ready in turf sprints, but are very poor when it comes to dirt routes. Likewise, some trainers are excellent at the maiden claiming level, but do significantly worse with the step up to maiden special weight company. It is important to understand the details of what goes into the overall first time starter win percentage before betting it blindly.

The jockey is the second piece of the connections puzzle. By and large, you will handicap the jockey for a first time starter the same way as you would in a normal race. Jockeys who are known for getting their mounts out of the gate with a clean break and being able to get young horses to relax out front will make me upgrade that horse. Additionally, it can be helpful to know which jockeys typically ride for which trainers, especially if a trainer has multiple mounts entered. If John Velazquez is on a Todd Pletcher first time starter, that horse could be a contender as JV is the typical first call pilot for Pletcher’s barn. What can oftentimes be more telling is when the first call pilots are not riding the first time starter of their trainer. If Velazquez is riding a horse for another barn despite a Pletcher horse being entered, and the jockey on the Pletcher horse is not a typical rider for that outfit, I will significantly downgrade the Pletcher horse under the assumption JV had an opportunity to ride and was not impressed or liked the other mount better. Note that this angle does not apply if the standard first call jockeys are not riding at the track in question on that day.

The owner is the last piece of the puzzle, and arguably the most difficult and least useful tool in handicapping. Similar to how trainers have their favorite jockeys, owners have their favorite trainers. A Klaravich Stables horse trained by Chad Brown with Castellano aboard demands serious consideration regardless of other factors, but small barns can be dangerous too. Smaller stables who are more cautious about spotting their horses than some of the mega-stable powerhouses can often be great value while the big-name stables take the public money. Keep an eye out for owners who target certain meets, such as Saratoga, as sometimes they will run horses at a slightly lower level than they are capable in order to try to win the meet title.

Pedigree:
Personally speaking, pedigree is the most challenging tool to add to your toolbox, but an invaluable one when it comes to dealing with first time starters. Quoting pedigree expert Lauren Stitch, the male parts (sire and damsire) of a horse’s pedigree are the keys to the surface and distance, and the female part (dam) of the pedigree influences a horse’s class. Before proceeding, I will strongly recommend that you evaluate a horse’s pedigree on the whole. That is, a horse by Tapit out of a mare who went 0/3 lifetime is not necessarily unable to compete at the maiden special weight ranks just because the dam was not a winner. Treat the surface, distance, and class influence as more of a guideline than strict rule.

That said, the first thing I usually do is to review the sire of the horse in question. Did the sire win his debut? Did the sire win at today’s distance? What about today’s surface? Does the sire’s progeny generally win first time out? I make frequent use of equibase, bloodhorse, and pedigreequery when trying to answer these questions. I will then check the same information on the damsire as well as the second sire (grandsire). I personally rarely go back farther than 2 generations due to time constraints and the fact I find limited value in that exercise, but everyone has their own preferences.

Most people are familiar with strong debut sires, and it’s unlikely that people will overlook a Tapit or Uncle Mo first time starter. However, the dam is often a crucial and overlooked component of a horse’s pedigree. I try to answer the same questions above about the dam to gauge ability. Often, the dam was unraced or only lightly raced – evaluating the granddam can often be useful in situations such as these. Next, I look for siblings. While stallions may cover hundreds of mares in a given breeding season, mares usually only have 1 foal in any given year. I want to see if the dam of my horse has produced any winners. If so, did they win at first asking, on what surface, at what distance, etc. It is not uncommon to have a lightly raced mare be an excellent dam of very successful and precocious runners despite not finding much success as a racehorse herself. An excellent resource for identifying siblings is to use pedigreequery.com; search for the dam, and go to reports > progeny. That will allow you to find the siblings and look them up on equibase (the race results and career record/earnings is often incorrect on pedigreequery).

Workouts:
In the absence of races, morning workouts are the next best way to measure a horse’s ability. Workout reports (or clocker reports) are hands down the most effective resource available to judge a horse’s workout. There is already a great article written on how to use workout reports, so I won’t delve deep into that topic but encourage everybody to check out the article here (https://www.reddit.com/horseracing/comments/bc9zob/using_clockerworkout_reports/)

Even without clocker reports, workouts can still be useful in evaluating a horse. The actual time of the workout is not nearly as important as many imagine it to be. A rough rule of thumb is 12 seconds per furlong is an okay workout fraction, but many trainers intentionally do not work their horses quickly in the mornings so the times may be deceiving. I’ll take note of an exceptionally fast workout (think 46 seconds for 4f), or if there appears to be a pattern emerging where a horse has shown improved/declining workout times over the past few works, but otherwise I don’t really use them.

More important than the times themselves are the frequency and spacing of the workouts. Young horses should be working often and consistently, no more than 2 weeks apart between works and oftentimes less than that. If I see a horse who was working out every 7 days, then abruptly goes 21 days without a workout before starting up again, that is a red flag to me. Something likely went wrong with the horse, whether it was soreness or something else that prevented him from working out on his normal schedule. Frequent gaps in an otherwise consistent workout tab are generally an indicator of a troubled horse. A word of caution: some trainers are sneaky and will work their horses on a private facility that will not be documented in the past performances. Keep an eye out for patterns of trainers who have successful first time starters with odd-looking workout patterns. It is likely they are being worked off-track and the workouts are not published.

A personal angle for me with first time starters is to look for at least 1 workout from the gate, indicated with a “g” in the workout line. At the maiden level, more races are won in front running fashion than at any other level in racing. That makes the break from the gate critically important, as missing the break can often cost a horse a race immediately. While there are certainly no guarantees, seeing a gate workout gives me a little more confidence that this horse can handle the break and have a fair shot at the start. Note: while seeing 1 or 2 gate works is encouraging, seeing a large number of gate works can be cause for concern. Gate works are not that common for experienced horses, so if a horse has worked from the gate 5 or 6 times in his last 10 works there is a strong chance he is breaking poorly, hitting the gate, or otherwise acting up.

Last, check for the surface that the workouts have been taking place on. A horse debuting on turf that has at least one turf workout under his belt is promising that he should be familiar with the surface already. Note that the (d) in turf workouts indicates the “dogs” were out – cones placed in a line out from the rail to try to preserve the inner part of the turf track. When working with the dogs out, horses are traveling wider around the turns and times may be slightly slower.

Putting it all together:
I figured it might be useful to provide a quick example of how I would handicap a first time starter, so I opened my PPs to Saratoga tomorrow and went to the first maiden special race I could find, race 2 on tomorrow’s program. We will be discussing the 8 horse, Duress.

https://preview.redd.it/8xju3317zk931.png?width=1224&format=png&auto=webp&s=d455c6568fdf791732c9fa01f38b77983c935bd4
Let’s walk through our 3 key building blocks. First, the connections. The first thing I notice is that this trainer is not strong with debut runners despite being a 15% overall trainer on the year, as he has a 3% strike rate with 1st time starters out of 32 starts. However, Manny Franco is one of the top jockeys on the NYRA circuit, and these two have found some success together in the past judging from their 1 for 5 (20% win, 60% in the money) strike rate together with a very strong +$2.04 ROI. I’m not familiar with the owner, and after some quick research he seems to run most of his horses in the NYRA circuit (and a few at finger lakes) with 7 winners from 42 starters (17% win) so far in 2019. I also noticed that the majority of his horses are trained by Robert Ribaudo, today’s trainer for our horse Duress. These same connections (Franco, Ribaudo, Keller) won impressively with 9-1 shot maiden special weight winner Opt on June 9 at Belmont going 8.5 furlongs on the turf.

As for pedigree, I love Violence offspring. Violence was 4-3-1-0 as a racehorse but forced into early retirement due to a leg injury. He won his debut race at 7f on the dirt, and won up to 8.5f. He never tried the turf, but if you look closer you will notice that 14% of his runners win on the turf, and 14% of his runners win the first time they try turf. The average winning distance of his offspring (AWD) is 6.6 furlongs, suggesting that this sprint distance should be favorable for Duress. Violence’s sire, Medaglia d’Oro, was a world class horse on dirt but also is known for producing outstanding turf offspring and has passed that gene down to Violence as well. Duress’ dam, Mattieandmorgan, was 0/7 in her racing career with 2 second place finishes. The connections elected to turn her into a broodmare rather than drop her into maiden claiming ranks where she could be claimed away. Her sire, Smart Strike, was a Grade 1 winner on dirt and never tried on turf. Her dam, Lady Shirl earned nearly $1,000,000 and won 18 of 41 starts, including a Grade 1 stakes, on the turf. Duress’ siblings include Hook Em, who is 2/24 and took a while to break his maiden but does have a turf win to his name. Duress’ other two siblings are a combined 0/9.

Lastly, the workouts for Duress appears solid. I do not have workout reports, so I’m limited to what we see above. The work pattern is fairly consistent, with a workout every 8-10 days or so since May, including a respectable gate workout on June 23. The times are all in the ballpark of what I am looking for, although I’d like to see at least one turf workout on the tab.

From my analysis, this horse has connections that are on the weaker side with debut runners, but a strong jockey takes the mount who has had success with this outfit before. The pedigree is very solid on the male side, as Violence produces a lot of first out winners on turf. The dam has not had much success in racing, and neither has the majority of her offspring. The granddam, however, was an outstanding turf horse. The workouts are well spaced with adequate times, including a gate work, but no turf works. If you’ve read this far (God bless you), you’re now wondering “yeah okay so do I bet this horse or not?”. Unfortunately, that’s a question you have to answer on your own. This horse has both a variety of positive and negative factors going for him, which is often the case in horse racing. It’s up to you to handicap the rest of the field and decide if he fits in or not. At the morning line of 15-1 I think he provides fair value, and if I play the pick 5 tomorrow I will likely include him on a few tickets but not a primary play.

Miscellaneous Angles
The above should provide most handicappers with enough material to develop a foundation for handicapping first time starters. I’ve included this section as a bit of a catch-all for random angles I’ve picked up that have helped me find winners in the past but are not that common.

Purchase Price vs Stud Fee: many handicappers will look towards a $1,000,000 Curlin colt purchased by Coolmore and assume the horse is a lock to win early. Often that is not the case. An angle I’ve found more reliable than simple purchase price is the purchase price of a horse compared to the stud fee (or average purchase price of all offspring) of his sire. A horse who sells at auction for $400,000 out of a sire who only commands a stud fee of $10,000 is worth paying attention to. This horse clearly impressed somebody enough to attract that kind of money and was not sold based on name brand value alone. Inversely, a colt out of a leading sire who stands for $250,000 (War Front, Tapit, etc) but only sells for $20,000 at auction raises questions. Clearly this horse has not developed the way the breeder has hoped to return such a small amount despite the big-name pedigree.

Tote Watching: If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. This is a game riddled with insider knowledge, backside rumors, and hot tipsters. However, if a first time starter from a smaller barn is listed at 15-1 on the ML but opens up at 7/2 and hangs out in that range, there’s a strong chance people “in the know” think this horse is live. I’ll upgrade a horse who takes significant action at the window for no apparent reason, but not enough to change my overall opinion if I feel strongly about him one way or another.

Dam Productivity Index/Sire Productivity Index (Brisnet PPS only*)*: The Dams Production Index (dpi) which compares the earnings of this dam’s produce with the average earnings of the produce of all North American broodmares. The average is established as 1.00 so, if a dam’s dpi is 2.00 this means that her produce average earnings are twice the national average (Two-year old, maiden, and turf races only). The Sire Production Index (spi) which compares the earnings of this sire’s and broodmare sire’s offspring with the average earnings of the offspring of all North American sires. The average is established as 1.00 so, if a sire’s spi is 2.00 this means that his offspring average earnings are twice the national average. Basically, this is a rough at-a-glance way to determine the class of a sire/damsire/dam’s offspring.



Resources:
http://www.equibase.com/
https://www.pedigreequery.com/
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing
https://www.drf.com/
http://www.brisnet.com/content/
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2020 Belmont Stakes Horse Racing Betting Picks, News and Preview  The Pony Pundits 07/03/2020 Horse Racing Belmont Park Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap, Stakes Races Betting Odds... Belmont Stakes 2020 Betting Tips and Picks 06/19/2020 Horse Racing Triple Crown Belmont Stakes Betting Odds and Picks Preview Belmont stakes betting prediction

Belmont Stakes history: Complete list of all-time Belmont Stakes winners NBC Sports will broadcast the 152nd Belmont Stakes on June 20 from 3-6 p.m. ET on NBC, NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app 2019 Belmont Stakes Video Replay - Sir Winston Wins Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park. Betting the Belmont Stakes - There are several concepts unique to the race that have to be taken into account when handicapping the third leg of horse racing's Triple Crown. Horse Betting News - Get up-to-date (Horse Racing News RSS Feeds) for the 2020 Belmont Belmont Stakes prop betting. Prop betting is always exciting on the Belmont Stakes and never more so when one of the runners is aiming for the illustrious Triple Crown.. Online betting sites will be out in full force, offering bets such as head to heads between the favorite and its closest rival, where the favorite will finish, the distance the race will be won by and the time of the race. Belmont Stakes off-track betting: If you can’t make it to the race but still want the thrill of an awesome atmosphere, then take a look at visiting an off-track betting facility near you. These venues attract racing aficionados normally, but big events such as the Belmont really pack them in. Belmont Stakes, Funny Cide team and horse racing winners on this day An inside look at how the 2020 Belmont Stakes will shape up: with the approximate post time set for 5:42 pm on Saturday: Tap It

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2020 Belmont Stakes Horse Racing Betting Picks, News and Preview The Pony Pundits

The final leg of the Triple Crown is this weekend's Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park. Tacitus and War of Will are the favorites this week for the long run at Big Sandy. Brian Blessing shared his ... Tiz the Law is the betting favorite for the 152nd Belmont Stakes on June 20th, 2020 at Belmont Park. Visit BetNow.eu sportsbook to place your bets and receive 8% Rebate. The 2020 Belmont Stakes takes place on Saturday June 20 from Belmont Park in Elmont, New York and Vegas Insider Anthony Stabile teaches bettors how to cash horse racing winners and what the best ... The 2020 Belmont Stakes will be the 152nd running of the Belmont Stakes and the 109th time the event will take place at Belmont Park. It is scheduled to be run June 20, 2020, at 5:42 pm EDT. 06/19/2020 Horse Racing Triple Crown Belmont Stakes Betting Odds and Picks Preview - Duration: 19:37. The Betmaker Show Horse Racing Picks Preview 52 views 19:37