How Does Horse Race Betting Work? Get To Know The Basics

Tales from 2+2: The Biggest Loser at Microstakes of All Time, A Story of Struggle

Link to Previous Tales From 2+2: Poker player steals $1m+ chips and tries to sell it on 2+2 poker forums
More Tales From 2+2: A Very Controversial $70k prop bet
Tales from 2+2: Homelessness, Grinding and the Biggest Shot of a Grinder’s Life: The Jared Huggins Story

The Blossoming of TV Poker

The Year is 2006. Online poker is thriving. Partypoker has the highest traffic of any poker site but Pokerstars are gaining new players quickly with aggressive marketing strategies. Lots of poker sites are investing heavily into marketing and one key place to channel their advertising budget is TV. New innovations, improved graphics and increasing funding meant that poker TV is at an all-time peak of popularity.
40% of the the 2006 WSOP Main Event’s attendance is from online sites and poker sites are offering large amounts of cash for players on TV to wear an advertising patch. According to Dan Goldman’s blog, Pokerstars spent over $730,000 on WSOP players’ gift bags. The WSOP is seeing more TV time and this year the $50k HORSE event is added to the TV schedule alongside the WSOP main event. This year’s $50k WSOP HORSE final table saw some huge names including Chip Reese, Phil Ivey, Patrik Antonius and Doyle Brunson.

The Path of a New Player

In Finland, Mikael Paisting is watching the 2006 WSOP on TV. He enjoys watching poker broadcasts and is fascinated by the game. It’s a very common story for players to catch an interest by watching poker TV and sign up with to one of the many poker sites available. He chooses to deposit on Partypoker. Mikael is a committed learner and player. He reads several poker books from well-known authors such as Dan Harrington and David Sklansky. He also watches many training videos. Like many players starting in online poker he begins at the microstakes cash tables.
Microstakes are a rite of passage for many online poker players. The limits range from 2nl to 10nl, so the standard buy in is $2-10. Some will play microstakes for weeks, months or even years improving their game and increasing their bankroll so they can move up to small stakes, 25nl and above. Some players see the microstakes as a job and play as many tables as they can to eke out a living wage. Some players have never played microstakes and skip it entirely for higher stakes. Mikael starts to play and doesn’t do well, this is normal for many beginners, even those who study. However, over the next few weeks Mikael continues to lose. Months go by and Mikael still hasn’t turned a profit. He discovers problems with tilt and often takes his frustration out in the chat box. An example of his rage:
Paisting:THAT IS NOT NORMAL OMG!! JUST UNBELIEVABLE
Mikael doesn’t play 10nl very often and spends the majority of him time playing 2nl and 5nl. He continues to multitable cash games on Partypoker but he just can’t win. He starts to lose big, thousands of dollars, mostly at 2nl which is known as the softest cash game on the internet.

Getting Noticed

Mikael continues to play long sessions over the next five years, he claims to play 5-7 days a week for 4-8 hours a day. By 2011 he had played 2 and a half million hands while playing 6 to 9 cash tables at one time. Mikael is still mostly playing 2nl and is down a colossal amount: $7000. Mikael has been suffering from major tilt problems and has a very wild and noticeable style of playing microstakes. He starts to get noticed on 2+2, a very popular poker forum. A player posts a link to his PTR graph, a site which tracks online cash games. They are shocked at his losses over so many hands:
yegor: wow such a massive fail
he played 2.5m hands at 2nl and 5nl and he's losing
Donkey111: I remember him from my 2NL days.
often goes on some massive tilt sessions and spews like 20 BI in 500 hands by shoving any 2 cards preflop.
He even gets hate from his PTR account where he is ridiculed on his profile comments, he also replies:
VELAir26: Spend your time with family, friends or other hobbies instead
Paisting: im fine with this you stupid idiot
Mikael continues to play his reckless and tilting style over the years. By 2014, he has been playing for 8 years and is down five figures at microstakes; he starts to look for excuses for how much he has lost. He posts a thread on 2+2 detailing how he feels that he wins at the start of the month and then inevitably starts to lose. He asks how he can take legal action against Partypoker. His fellow posters tease him:
5thStreethog: Did the thought ever cross your mind that it might be possible that the reason you cant beat NL2 in over a million hands might be because you arent very good at poker?

An Attempt at Redemption

2019 comes and Mikael Paisting has been playing microstakes for 13 years, and steadily losing a lot of money. He got a new computer in late 2018 and has been grinding away on it. Mikael is getting mentioned more on 2+2 and he is well known on the tables of Partypoker as he drops stack after stack. Many players on Partypoker furiously try to get on his tables to call his tilt shoves; when Mikael is present other player’s stacks can get as high as $100 at 2nl as he shoves buy in after buy in to button steals. Some were said to be using seating scripts to instantly be placed on a table with Paisting. At this point he is feeling very low. But despite years of losing money and insane tilting he is determined to improve. Mikael is aware of his losses and has a fierce desire to make back the money he has lost since he’s started tracking on his new PC.
He decides get help and he looks to 2+2, the very same forum that had mocked him over the last decade. He logs in as Paisting, his last name. He starts a new thread, types out a post and chooses a title: 'Biggest loser in online poker history wants to grind $16k'. He posts this thread in the sub-forum Poker Goals & Challenges, a place where players post their goals and try to update their thread with their progress. He posts graphs of his losses from his database on his PC. He starts the thread by posting some shocking graphs of $8700 lost at 2nl, $6000 lost at 5nl and $800 lost at 10nl. At 2nl he had an incredible rate of -170BB each 100 hands. The final graph of his microstakes losses posted show $15,000 lost over 365,000 hands. An average loss of $75 a day.
The 2+2 poker community are stunned by the graphs:
HorseofHell: I'm actually shocked it's possible to lose this much at 2nl
Mahsjdj: This can't be real can it?
Mikael posts about the hard work he’s put into poker and mentions that has watched videos, read many instructional books and is honest with his astounding losses:
Paisting: I've lost literally all my money including all my life savings to online poker. I want to try one last time to win those money back and little bit of extra. That's why $16k. What I need is support and guiding.
The community react to his plan to grind all the money back at microstakes:
Fodersneso: This is really disturbing.
Why on earth would you try to grind this all back? Losing at this rate is traumatizing. You're going to grind out 3000 BIs @nl5 now or what's the plan? Really curious how you think you can turn this pile of insanity around...
The community show disbelief and doubt that his story is real but several posters claim that what he says is true. He has been active in Finnish forums for more than 10 years and players starts to share hand histories and stories about his playstyle. He posts about his regret of picking the game up:
Paisting: Never had a winning week in 13 years.
If it were possible to go back ten years I would say to myself "Do not never play single one hand!"
He then goes on to tell 2+2 posters a disturbing source of his funds for his staggering 2nl losses:
Paisting: I've taken huge amount of fast loans.
He sheds a little light into his personal life:
Paisting: My age and relationships has nothing to do with this. But not working, no kids or wife and middle aged. What I have is time to play.
I get a little unemployment benefit that goes straight to the rent. My eating costs are very little because I'm only eating one meal per day. There are times when I must take more fast loans if need of clothes, unexpected bills, sickness etc. That's why getting back those $16k is so important to me.
No disability, never played anything else than poker or lottery when pots are bigger, maybe 5 times in year. Playing poker does not give me any excitement or I'm not cheering won pots.
Posters try to give him strategy advice, they try to persuade him time and time again that shoving 100+ blinds to a minsteal isn’t a good idea. Some others question his sanity and tell him to quit:
FazendeiroBH: Not trolling, I´m actually serious here. You lost an absurd amount of money playing the easiest stake in the world (nl2). You keep losing doing the same faulty strategy. No book ever said you should jam 100 bb preflop rfi. It´s quite obvious there is something wrong with you and your brain, and the more you delay seeking professional care for your mental problems, the worst it´s gonna be for you.
Paitsing updates his thread with highlight hands from his cash sessions. He seems to cherry pick hands to post and will only post hands where he loses all ins as a 70-95% favourite. He delusion leads him to blame the site, his luck and the other micro grinders. He often writes about specific players and gives his opinion on how badly they play. He often quotes their HUD stats and wide calling ranges while ignoring that they are probably adjusting heavily to his own playstyle. Some time passes and he discloses that he has lost almost $500 at 2nl since starting the thread three weeks ago.
He updates his followers with the first monthly graph of the thread from his 2nl play in April 2019. He plays for 90 hours in April and his average daily loss is $50, 25 buy ins each day. 2+2 players start to analyse the graph. They notice that there are several breakeven spots where he may be playing reasonable poker but also huge 150 buy in downswings, some drops in the graph are so steep that he is losing about a buy in every 5 hands for periods of hundreds of hands. He says:
Paitsing: Only trying to get my money back from guys who are playing nl2 forever and never moving up. When I started poker long time ago I tought it's exciting to read watch videos if it gives me more money. After 2 years figured out it's just sitting on computer like in work and if I'm someday +-0 never ever playing this stupid game. This is like war.
The thread goes on like this for almost a year. The thread repeats itself over and over. He will post a few selective bad beats, ignore good advice and berate his microstakes tablemates. A fellow microstakes grinder makes his first appearance in the thread: 6betpot. 6Betpot would play at Paisting's tables and often win many buy ins, 6Betpot would go on to post highly contrasting hand histories to the bad beats that Paisting posts, he would also reveal Paisting’s preflop 3 bet is around 30%. Some players would criticize 6Betpot for predatory behavior but 6Betpot would maintain that he would try to persuade Paisting to stop playing in a spewy manner. Someone asks to see the hands and 6Betpot posts some, here is one:
888 Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
BTN: 250.5 BB
SB (Paisting): 425.5 BB
BB: 101.5 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 106.5 BB
CO: 84.5 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) BTN has AdQs
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Paisting raises to 425.5 BB and is all-in, fold, BTN calls 248.5 BB and is all-in
Flop: (502 BB, 2 players) Kh4s4c
Turn: (502 BB, 2 players) 3h
River: (502 BB, 2 players) Jc
BTN shows AdQs (One Pair, Fours)
Paisting shows 5s Js (Two Pair, Jacks and Fours)
Paisting wins 471 BB<
Later in the thread Paisting would reveal his line of thinking during hands like these; a poster asked why he though 3 betting hands like J5 was a good idea. Paisting replies:
Paisting: If you don't want them to run over you, you must do something. Blind play is very important and you can't let them run over you. When 80+ habit stealer gets shoves straight to his face he must learn at some point that I'm not giving blinds.
Many tried to reason with him and show him clearly why this was wrong, he not only refuted their strategy but would argue against them, often citing his opponent’s HUD stats.
Later on in the thread Mikael posts horrifying news. He explains that he didn’t transfer hands from his old computer to his new computer. The graphs he posted at the start of the thread only showed the tip of the iceberg. He reveals that $16k loss from the graphs was from just 7 months of play!:
Paisting: That 16k is in 209 days and in about 1 year as you can see from the first post. Big part of my losings has left to hard drive of my old crashed computer. That's past and I don't wanna think about it anymore. Main goal is this database I have here in my computer. But yes what I have been repeating many times, moving to 888 poker has sky rocketed my losses although I can play only 6 tables compared to party's 9 tables.
Posters speculate that his lifetime microstakes losses probably amount to six figures:
SpinMeRightRound: I mean if he's lost $20k in the last year, and he's been doing this for more than 10 years, he may have lost $200k or more.
In late 2019, Paisting claims that there was a ring of players were colluding against him. He goes on to say that the new site he plays on, 888, were asking for hand histories from certain players. He showed emails of his communications and posted that 8 players had had their account frozen. He also shows screenshots that his account is temporarily frozen during the investigation. Posters speculated:
CrunchyBlack: Pretty sure they think you're chip dumping lmao
.isolated: They think you're chip dumping to him. Funniest. Thing. Ever. The irony here is nearly palpable.

2020: The Struggle Continues

At the end of the year Paisting posts his 2019 graphs. He says that he hasn’t had a winning week yet and he’s still committed to making back 2019’s losses. His graphs show down 12k from 320k hands of 2nl in 2019.
In January 2020 he continues to post regularly and makes comments about him hunting down players worse than him:
Paisting: When you hunt really bad player (yes enzet there are plenty of worst player than me on 888 look those hand histories really carefully) hours and hours and wait good hand just to site let them to suck out it is affecting your game really badly.
He posts about his continuing struggle to win back the $16k:
Paisting: I have years dedicated for this project and anything back from that amount is winning to me. At this point it’s impossible to make any profit because of horrible suckouts.
He also posts about the high interest loans he’s taken out:
Paisting: I have huge amounts of loans that are basically all taken for poker. I don't eat much and all my other costs are very low.
And because of those loans I must get back so much money that is possible and these suck outs must stop.
February 2020 arrives and he posts his January chart, the worst posted yet. He takes a gigantic loss of $1,550 at an eye-watering rate of 210bb/100 hands. Often when he posts monthly graphs he would highlight that he ran a few buy ins below EV when he would be down hundreds of buy ins for the month.
The months pass and the cycle continues. Paisting posts the usual bad beats, posters berate him and try to give him advice and Paisting resists their efforts. Here is one of many similar hands posted in February:
888Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
UTG: $1.46 (73 bb) Paisting (MP): $7.45 (373 bb) CO: $15.44 (772 bb) BU: $2.00 (100 bb) SB: $3.47 (174 bb) BB: $2.00 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.03) 1 fold, Paisting(MP) raises to $7.45 (all-in), CO calls $7.45, 3 players fold
Flop: ($14.93) 6c7c4d (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: ($14.93) Ts (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($14.93) 8h (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $14.93 (Rake: $0.93)
Showdown: Paisting (MP) shows 7dTc (two pair, Tens and Sevens) (CO) shows JsJc (a pair of Jacks) Paisting (MP) wins $14
March comes and the regular monthly graph is posted. The uploaded graph shows is he down $1900 or 950 buy ins for last month. Mikael refutes that he is a gambling addict:
Paisting: 888 has given many 10 dollar bonuses to me play slots. I have never played them and in fact my account has 20 dollars freeplay bonus to play their slots. I will not use those money now or in future. So that's gambling addict to you.
April and May roll by and the monthly graphs are posted. He played fewer hands than normal, 43,000. But is down $1,250, all at 2nl.
In June he posts the usual monthly graph with -$1900 and it’s the lowest win rate he’s posted before, a colossal -335b/100hands, the graph has some alarmingly steep downswings with one section where he loses $500 in 1000 hands. That’s a loss of one buy in every 4 hands. Getting these monthly updates shows how quickly he loses money at 2nl and collaborates with earlier estimations that he is likely down more than $100k at microstakes over the past 14 years. Approximations indicate that Mikael has paid over $20k in rake to poker sites over the years.

The End, for Now

Mikael is still playing microstakes to this day. His poker story isn’t over yet but so far it is a sad one. My previous two Tales from 2+2 stories had mostly happy endings but not this one. This story is like a car falling down a cliff and it hasn’t hit the bottom yet.
Let this story be a lesson that poker isn’t for everyone. Players with addiction or mental issues should reconsider if the game is best for their lives. Serious poker players should consider bankroll management and how tilt affects their winrate if they do choose to play.
Seek help if you think you or others need it.
Original thread (Still active)
submitted by GiantHorse to poker [link] [comments]

Reiterate Q2 '22 EPS Est. $0.88 vs $0.38 concensus

The Intel news just confirms what has long been suspected. Now that Intel has come clean that 7nm is delayed until 2023 (at best) here are the consequences:
  1. Forgot to mention, this is Intels Bulldozer. Its going to be very rough for them going forward. But unlike with AMD and Zen, we are too close to the end of Moore's Road for them to make a comeback.
  2. Customers will be flocking to Epyc. Datacenter CPUs get recycled every 3 years and with Intel 7nm coming out in 3 years at best, datacenters will switch to Epyc NOW to the extent possible. THERE WILL BE A SHORTAGE OF MILAN CHIPS. YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST. It will be far cheaper for them to make the switch now into Rome and know that with the coming Milan and Genoa they will be on the leading edge for the next 3 years. Rome is better than any Xeon for the next 3 years and Milan even moresso. The only think holding Epyc back right now is covid. But hopefully that passes in early 2021 with the vaccines and 2021 should be gangbusters.
  3. I hope Lisa is smart and prices Milan based on the demand not "to be nice." Don't get cocky and engage in monopolistic Intel level pricing, but targeting 33% operating margin (up from 25%) is very reasonable. AMD should be rewarded for the risks of betting the firm on Zen and having the foresight others lacked. You will soon have to pay taxes again so ultimately that leaves 23% net margin (intel is running at 28-30% net margin).
  4. The future looks even brighter. In 2023, TSMC 3nm will be targeting 300mtmm2. This compares to INTC 10nm at 100mtmm2 and 7nm at 200mtmm2 (if they can even get them yielding). It is likely that 7nm won't even be ready in 2023. 200% density advantage. Let that sink in.
  5. AMD has its sights locked squarely on NVDA by integrating x86 CPU and GPU (not just a tiny APU but big fat GPUs). There is not much NVDA can do to stop this. For the guy who said "AMD will never be a threat to NVDA" lets revisit in 2 years.
  6. Radeon will go from red-headed stepchild to a crown jewel. Genoa will be the catalyst.
  7. Radeon gaming will become dominant. Not only will Radeon sport a superior node over Nvidia and hence have equal or better performance, the consoles ensure that games will be optimized for Radeon.
  8. At some point in the not too distant future, AMD will make $5 EPS. They will be the only manufacturer of leading edge CPUs. There will be a shortage of their chips. OEMs will invest heavily in AMD systems. The horse is about to leave the barn.
  9. For those of you who say Lisa should not be given so much credit I think you are great Monday morning quarterbacks. Everything looks easy in hindsight. But as a manager you get faced with thousands of decisions a year, most very small and a few are very big. You need to get the big macro decisions right and most of the small ones as well or else they accumulate into big problems. But the big ones are the most difficult. I can make a separate post about how Lisa has guided AMD into making the right big decisions over the past 6 years and how she could have easily made the wrong ones. But you just need to look at the stumbles of INTC and soon to be apparent NVDA to see how difficult it is to be a great leader. NVDA have really screwed themselves with arrogance (very common downfall). Their behavior has left them few, if any, friends and many will enjoy their comeuppance. I suspect Jensen rules by fear which is fine as long as the stock price goes up as he will retain loyalty of his employees. But once the stock price heads south, the knives will come out. As long as Lisa & Co stay humble and united (looking at you Raja), they will simply execute and soon come to dominate silicon.
  10. Next big decision for Lisa is to reinvest some of those profits aggressively into software to support their hardware. First class hardware demands first class software (on launch day).
Bottom line, sometime in the not too distance future: $25B revenues. 20-30% net margin. $6-7.5B net income. Let's call this EPS $6. PE of 25= Stock Price of $150.
Laugh all you want. But read my post history and be honest about the accuracy of my calls which have been months/years in advance. Here was my last one:
https://www.reddit.com/AMD_Stock/comments/et681g/my_q4_2019_eps_prediction_from_2017_and_my_q2/
P.S. You can safely buy TSMC as well.
submitted by bionista to AMD_Stock [link] [comments]

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (July 19, 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. Where the same poll applied different screening methodologies (All Adults, Registered Voters, Likely Voters), the result is shown as the most restrictive (Likely Voters > Registered Voters > All Adults). This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Poll Date Type Biden Trump
Fox News 7-19 National 49 41
ABC News/The Washington Post 7-19 National 54 44
Gravis Marketing 7-18 South Carolina 46 50
Public Policy Polling 7-18 Michigan 51 44
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 7-16 Kentucky 41 53
OH Predictive Insights 7-16 Arizona 49 44
Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape 7-17 National 49 41
Alaska Survey Research 7-17 Alaska 48 49
Monmouth University 7-15 Pennsylvania 51 44
NBC News 7-15 National 51 40
Ipsos 7-15 National 47 37
Quinnipiac University 7-15 National 52 37
YouGov 7-15 National 47 39
Rasmussen Reports 7-15 National 47 44
Monmouth University 7-15 Pennsylvania 52 42
YouGov 7-15 National 49 40
Morning Consult 7-15 National 47 39
Change Research 7-15 Michigan 48 42
Change Research 7-15 Wisconsin 48 42
Change Research 7-15 Pennsylvania 50 42
Change Research 7-15 North Carolina 47 46
Change Research 7-15 Florida 50 43
Change Research 7-15 Arizona 51 45
Change Research 7-15 National 51 41
Gravis Marketing 7-14 Texas 44 46
Gravis Marketing 7-14 Florida 53 43
Civiqs 7-14 Montana 45 49
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 7-13 National 48 39
RMG Research 7-13 National 46 39
YouGov 7-13 Missouri 42 49
Public Policy Polling 7-13 Montana 42 51
GQR Research (GQRR) 7-13 Nebraska CD-2 51 44
John Zogby Strategies 7-12 National 49 42
Gravis Marketing 7-12 Georgia 45 48
YouGov 7-12 Arizona 46 46
YouGov 7-12 Florida 48 42
YouGov 7-12 Texas 45 46
University of Texas at Tyler 7-12 Texas 48 43
GBAO 7-10 North Carolina 48 46
GBAO 7-10 Arizona 47 46
GBAO 7-10 Iowa 45 48
Morning Consult 7-10 National 48 39
Auburn University at Montgomery 7-10 Alabama 40 55
Data for Progress 7-10 National 51 41
Public Policy Polling 7-9 North Carolina 50 46
Public Policy Polling 7-9 Alaska 45 48
Harris Insights & Analytics 7-8 National 43 39
Rasmussen Reports 7-8 National 50 40
Ipsos 7-8 National 43 37
Opinium 7-8 National 52 40
Research Co. 7-8 National 49 40
YouGov 7-8 National 49 40
PureSpectrum 7-8 National 47 37
Public Policy Polling 7-7 National 53 42
Trafalgar Group 7-6 Pennsylvania 48 42
Public Policy Polling 7-6 Maine 53 42
Trafalgar Group 7-3 Florida 45 45
YouGov 7-2 National 45 40
Monmouth University 7-2 National 53 41
YouGov 7-2 Texas 44 48
Public Policy Polling 7-2 Texas 48 46
University of Montana 7-1 Montana 37 52
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 7-1 National 55 41
Gravis Marketing 7-1 Arizona 45 49
Public Policy Polling 7-1 Michigan 50 44
Ipsos 7-1 National 46 38
Harris Insights & Analytics 7-1 National 56 44
Public Policy Polling 7-1 Colorado 56 39
IBD 7-1 National 48 40
Data Orbital 7-1 Arizona 47 45
YouGov 7-1 National 49 40
Morning Consult 7-1 National 47 40
Change Research 7-1 National 49 41
Change Research 7-1 Arizona 51 44
Change Research 7-1 Florida 50 45
Change Research 7-1 Michigan 48 43
Change Research 7-1 North Carolina 51 44
Change Research 7-1 Pennsylvania 50 44
Change Research 7-1 Wisconsin 51 43
East Carolina University 6-30 North Carolina 45 43
Suffolk University 6-30 National 53 41
Pew Research Center 6-30 National 54 44
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 6-30 Missouri 48 46
Siena College 6-30 New York 57 32

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
submitted by Isentrope to politics [link] [comments]

I Read It So You Don't Have To: Little Kids, Big City (by Alex McCord and Simon van Kempen)

Inspired by the overwhelmingly positive response to my previous 'book report' on Ramona Singer's Life on the Ramona Coaster (seriously, thank you all -- truly supporting other women 🙏🙏), I decided to try my hand at writing up yet another of the embarrassing number of Housewives books in my personal collection: Alex McCord and Simon van Kempen's Little Kids, Big City: Tales from a Real House in New York City with Lessons on Life and Love for Your Own Concrete Jungle.
After reading just the title of this book, I'm already exhausted. It's pretentiously long and awkwardly phrased while somehow still managing to be entirely devoid of meaning. In other words, a perfect encapsulation of Simon and Alex. The summary on the back cover describes the pair as the "breakout stars" of RHONY, an assessment that I would charitably call 'debatable,' before going on to inform me that I can look forward to "informative and often hair-raising stories of life in the urban jungle," and that "Alex and Simon use their own hard-won experience as a springboard to discuss a host of parenting topics." I anticipate that this content will be quite useful to me, the guardian of four cats that I spoil endlessly and treat like my actual children.
One of the pull-quotes on the back cover allegedly comes from our very own Bethenny Frankel. I say 'allegedly' because I refuse to believe that the following passage would ever come out of Bethenny's mouth (or keyboard or whatever):
Alex and Simon don't take themselves too seriously, which seems to be essential to parenting. Their fresh 'he said, she said' perspective on parenting is both humorous and insightful!
Please, take a moment and do your very best to picture mention-it-all, betting-on-horse-races-at-age-five Bethenny unironically using the phrase "fresh 'he said, she said' perspective." To describe Simon van Kempen and Alex McCord. Right, didn't think so.
My experience reading Little Kids, Big City started on an unexpected high note when I opened the front cover to find that my copy (purchased used through Better World Books for the low, low price of $5.31 with shipping) had been signed by Ms. you-are-in-high-school-while-I-am-in-Brooklyn herself, Alex McCord! Truly a gift I do not deserve. Samantha and Debbie (whoever and wherever you may be), thank you for your service. I am forever in your debt.
Unfortunately, as would soon become painfully clear to me, after starting off on such a promising note, I would have nowhere to go but down.
The book, which is written in alternating passages from Alex and Simon, begins its introduction with a chronicle of Alex's "fashionably nomadic" early adulthood. Ever the proto-edgelord, she recalls, "I did all those things our mothers warned us about and had fun doing them." We switch to Simon's perspective to hear the deeply embarrassing story of the couple meeting through a dating app while Simon was on a business trip in New York City. No, there is absolutely nothing embarrassing about meeting someone on a dating app. But there absolutely is something embarrassing about using the profile name "Yetisrule" to meet someone on a dating app. To clarify, this was apparently Alex's username, and I remain hopeful that we will get a more thorough explanation of her connection to the elusive Yeti as this book continues.
Alex tells us that, while she and Simon hadn't initially planned to have children, they eventually started to have "clucky feelings." I have never heard this phrase in my entire twenty-five years of life, but based on context clues and also a Google search, I learned that it means they wanted to have a baby. Don't worry, though! As Alex tells us, "You can be eight months pregnant and wear a leather miniskirt." Personally, this is life-changing news -- I had always believed that I couldn't have kids unless I was willing to compromise my 90s goth aesthetic! Maybe I'll rethink this child-free thing after all.
The next bit of advice seems like it actually could potentially be sort of helpful. "No one is a good parent all the time -- nor is anyone a bad parent all the time," they reassure the reader. "You can become a parent without losing yourself." Unfortunately, as soon as I catch myself nodding along, the modicum of goodwill I'd built up is promptly trashed by a gag-worthy line from Simon: "If you take nothing away but a wry smile after reading our little tome, then we've done our job." I immediately vow not to smile until I'm finished reading this book. Excuse me, this little tome.
The book starts in earnest with Chapter 1: "Does a German Shepherd Need a Birth Plan?" To be perfectly honest, I was not expecting a riddle at this juncture, but I am nevertheless excited to hear Simon and Alex tell us "why childbirth is not an intellectual activity." First, however, we get a passing reference to "Park Slope, home of the ParkSlopeParents.com message board made famous in 2007 with a so-ridiculous-it-got-headlines discussion on gender-specific baby hats and where feminism can be taken to extremes." And despite the lame alarmist allusion to ~*XTREME feminism*~, this line did manage to lead me down an interesting Internet rabbit hole, so thanks for that, I guess?
Jesus Christ, I am on PAGE 4 and I am already so done with Simon. Presented without comment:
With the Park Slope OB-GYN, we had the first sonogram and saw the little blip on the screen -- our child-to-be. They say seeing is believing and as nothing was happening inside me, seeing confirmation on the video monitor that indeed my spermatozoa had penetrated and infiltrated one of Alex's ova made me aware that my days as a footloose and fancy-free guy might be coming to an end.
Y'all, I am currently working on my PhD in Molecular Biology. Which, if you were not previously aware, gives me the authority to decree that Simon is never allowed to use the word "spermatozoa" ever again. And so it is.
I was about to say that Alex's passages are at least more tolerable, but it appears I spoke too soon.
The stats they quoted referenced a 40 percent cesarean section rate in the city, and I wonder how that can be acceptable? Are we heading toward Brave New World, where babies are scientifically created in petri dishes and gestated in artificial wombs? Oh wait, we're already there. Are we heading towards a Wall-E existence, where we ride around in carts everywhere and do nothing for ourselves so that our bodies break down and we're all fat, oozy blobs drinking protein from a straw? Somebody slap me, please!!
Truly, Alex, it would be my pleasure.
As a Type-A person, just reading the story of Alex's first pregnancy and delivery gave me anxiety. She says that she just never really "felt the need to establish a birth plan" and that she "gave in to any craving [she] felt." Don’t worry, though -- "If I had suddenly craved chalk, ecstasy or Elmer's Glue, I'd have thought twice." I feel like there is some symbolism here to unpack (Could the Elmer's Glue be a metaphor for the childlike spirit of connection and unity???). Simon describes himself as "a learn-on-the-job guy" and tells us that he and Alex "failed to attend the last couple of [birthing] classes as by then we both just wanted to let instinct take over when the time came." As someone who has never trusted my instincts even once in my entire life, I cannot relate.
Twelve days after his due date, baby François is born. Except it turns out that he actually was born right on time, but Alex "didn't keep regimented track of [her] periods" and miscalculated. What a bummer that modern medicine hasn't advanced to the point where doctors can guide you about that sort of thing.
I don't even know what to say about this next bit, but God help me, I still have 215 more pages of this book to go.
Although the final stages of labor were very, very painful, I [Alex] never used our code word (tin can) for "game over, give me drugs." I definitely recommend using a code word, because it was kind of fun to scream, "I want drugs, give me drugs" through a contraction and have the midwife, nurse and Simon all know I wasn't serious. Once he [François] was finally out of my body, I experienced a tsunami of endorphins that was almost orgasmic, and I understand completely the stories other women have written about ecstatic birth. Simon was sitting behind me at the point of birth, and later when we untangled ourselves he discovered he'd actually ejaculated though hadn't felt any of the normal lead-up to that. It may seem distasteful to some, and definitely neither of us was thinking of sex at the time, but with the rush of emotion and my lower nerve endings going crazy, it's not too far a stretch to say that it's a profound experience.
Johan is born two years later, although it's unclear from the text whether either parent reached orgasm during the event.
The chapter ends with a top-ten list entitled "10 Things We'll Remember That Happened During Pregnancy." These include useful tidbits like
  1. Best advice I heard: men's genitals grow and change shape regularly, then go back to the way they were before. Don't worry about your female delicate bits being able to retract.
Which is…a lovely sentiment. But one that is slightly undermined by phrasing the first part in the grossest way possible, as well as by the use of the phrase "female delicate bits." I do like the idea that they "retract," however, because I think it's very cool to imagine the vagina as an SUV sunroof. By the grace of God, Chapter 1 comes to a close.
In Chapter 2 (titled "No Sleep 'Til Brooklyn, What's My Name Again? and Who is This Alien?" -- seriously, were they padding their word count with chapter titles?), we get more questionable parenting advice from the McCord-van Kempens. They glibly dismiss concerns about co-sleeping ("Simon and I both slept with cats and dogs our whole lives without squishing them"), which I honestly would be more annoyed about if I hadn't immediately gone on to read Simon's account of "the midnight race to the 24-hour pharmacy to buy a breast pump as Alex's breasts were seemingly engorged with too much milk and she thought they were about to explode and fly off her chest." As it stands, I'm truly too defeated to care. Again, just to be perfectly clear: no shade to having issues breastfeeding, all shade to using the word 'engorged.’ And also for giving me the mental image of Alex's breasts desperately struggling to flee from her body (though to be fair, who could blame them?).
Proving that she does not inhabit the same world as the rest of us mortals, Alex tells us that she expected that her state of sleep-deprivation as she raised two young children would "spur [her] creativity with graphic design." For some reason, this does not seem to be the case. Alex is puzzled.
Finally, we've come to this chapter's top ten list ("Top 10 Memories of Random Things We Did While in the Post-Birth Haze"). While these lists have so far been utterly irredeemable, they also mean the chapter is coming to a close, so I can at least take some solace in that. This particular list ranges from the irritating…
  1. We subversively took sleeping babies to as many non-child-friendly places as possible to prove the point that children can be seen, not heard and not bothersome, such as dinner at the Ritz in London, the Sahara Desert, shopping on Madison Avenue, Underbar in Union Square and film festivals.
…to the truly unnecessary.
  1. While changing François' diaper on day one or two, we both stood mesmerized by the changing pad as meconium oozed out of him. It was really the most bizarre and fascinating thing I'd seen to date.
With the couple's general backstory and credentials now under our belts, Chapter 3 ("The Screaming Kid on the Plane is NOT Mine! (This Time)") focuses on advice for traveling with children, which Alex admits "can be a complete pain in the you-know-what." I cannot describe the rage I feel at the fact that she has -- in no fewer than 50 pages -- forced me to read about both her newborn son's excrement and her husband's ejaculate, but cannot bring herself to use the word "ass." Alex, we're really far beyond that at this point, don't you think?
Not to be outdone, Simon shares a conversation he had with François that is remarkable not for its content, but for the fact that one of Simon's nicknames for his son is apparently "F-Boy." Thanks, I hate it.
This chapter's list ("Alex's Top 10 Travel Memories") includes the entry:
  1. Both boys charging down Saline Beach in St. Barths like something out of Lord of the Flies.
So, like a horde of primal sadists? I'm wondering if Alex and Simon have inadvertently confused Lord of the Flies with the hit 2007 reality show Kid Nation. I really hope that's what's going on here.
Chapter 4 ("'Mommy, Johan is Gone!'") promises to teach us how to handle accidents. I'm not sure how comfortable I feel taking emergency advice from the authors of this particular book, but (in large part due to the fact that I have slept since reading the previous chapter, giving the pain a chance to dull somewhat), I am willing to at least hear them out.
After relaying a story of François needing emergency surgery after a foot injury, Alex tells us that at one point, she and Simon realized they had spent "nearly $5000 on Indian takeout" in the past year. For the mathematically averse, this works out to a monthly budget of roughly $100 worth of Indian food per week, making my quarantine Uber Eats habit seem downright quaint by comparison. The chapter-ending list walks us through the "Top 10 Things We Do in a Crisis," and fortunately, the tips seem pretty benign.
  1. Knowing what calms the children down, such as making silly faces or reciting Shel Silverstein poetry backwards.
Wait, hang on. What?
reciting Shel Silverstein poetry backwards
I'm sorry, please forgive me if I have missed some recent, paradigm-shifting development in the field of early childhood education, but what?? As in, "ends sidewalk the where?" "Sdne klawedis eht erehw?" I am truly befuddled.
Maybe the next chapter ("'Is Today a Work Day or a Home Day, Mommy?'") will have some applicable wisdom for me, as I will, in fact, be working from home every other week for the foreseeable future. And, I cannot stress this enough, I am a psychotically overinvested cat mom. Alas, we are instead treated to an unnecessarily detailed breakdown of how important it is to delegate, and specifically that Simon cleans up vomit and Alex cleans up "feces in the various forms that come out of children's bottoms at appropriate and sometimes inappropriate times such as the middle of Thanksgiving festivities." As if we needed another reason to consider Thanksgiving problematic.
The chapter takes a brief commercial break…
When an everyday product can do double duty such as Dawn Hand Renewal with Olay Beauty, a dish soap that seals in moisture while I'm tackling cleanup, sure, I'll buy it.
…before closing out with a list of the "Top 10 Things We Do Because We Were Here First." I am happy to confirm your worst suspicions and tell you that item number one is indeed "Have passionate sex."
In Chapter 6 ("I Saw Your Nanny…Being Normal?"), I find myself actually sympathizing with Alex for the first time in this book. Which is mostly just because the chapter starts by talking about all of the awful, catty parental competitions that seem endemic to a certain crew of white Manhattan moms, and it makes Alex come off at least slightly less irritating in comparison.
That is, at least until a few pages later, when she starts to complain about a previous au pair:
She was sullen, melodramatic and kept a blog about how she hated Americans, hated France, hated us and the children but loved New York. I think she must have thought we were idiots, and when she asked us to leave early we were only too happy to get her out of our home.
I would love to meet this woman. I think we could be great friends.
This chapter's list is even more difficult to parse than previous ones, because while it's titled "Top 10 Things Caregivers Have Inadvertently Done to Amuse, Annoy or Thrill Us," it's not at all clear which descriptors apply to which points. When a babysitter "accidentally used a household cleaning wipe when changing a diaper," were the McCord-Van Kempens amused? Annoyed? Thrilled? The world may never know.
In Chapter 7 ("'Putting To Death Is Not Nice,' a Duet for Two Boys and A Guitar"), Alex and Simon share some of their hard-earned childrearing wisdom with us. Which basically amounts to Alex telling us that, while normally misbehavior from the kids incurs a warning followed by a time-out, she has also developed an ingenious new strategy where she actually steps in to intervene when the stakes are higher. Let's listen in:
A third permutation is when there's a behavior that has to stop immediately, say if Johan has a big blue indelible marker and is running through a white hotel suite. I swoop in and grab the marker as to risk a three count [warning] would be to risk decoration of the sofa.
Take the marker from the toddler immediately instead of trying to reason with him? Groundbreaking.
Side Note: At this point in my reading, I am incredibly satisfied to report that I have discovered my first typo in the book, and in one of Simon's sections no less! ("These toads secret [sic] a poison…"). This is wildly pedantic of me and proof that I am a deeply sick person.
We run though a list of "Top 10 Things We Never Thought We Would Have To Explain" ("10. Why hot pizza stones do not like Legos.") before moving right along into Chapter 8, "Don't Listen to the Well-Meaning Morons." Strangely, I have a very vivid memory of Alex saying "I have a chapter in my book called, 'Don't Listen to the Well-Meaning Morons" in some distant RHONY episode or reunion. I guess she was telling the truth.
The chapter opens with a series of passages in which Alex and Simon respond to various comments that have been made about their parenting over the years. I think this device is supposed to be a bit of lighthearted snark on overbearing strangers, but instead just comes off as weirdly defensive and passive-aggressive. A few examples:
"My daughter is perfect. Her table manners are excellent, she never speaks unless spoken to and we've always had white sofas at home since she was a child, with no staining."
-A woman with one preteen daughter, no sons
Your daughter sounds boring. I wouldn't want my sons to date her..
Zing!
"Why are you outside?" - A bagel seller in Montreal, in February
I'm hungry and the stroller is well protected under the plastic cover. Johan is warm and cozy, the others are asleep in the hotel and I'm going stir-crazy. Is that enough, or should I buy my bagel from someone else?
Got 'em!
"Excuse me, your baby is crying." -- Someone said to Simon as they peered into the stroller to try and determine the cause of said noise.
You don't say! Do you think, you stupid idiot, that I don't hear that? Do you think I think it's just loud music? Do you think I don't want him to stop and that I like it???
Sorry, did I say 'passive-aggressive'? Let's change that to just 'aggressive.'
But despite bristling at being the recipient of unwanted advice, far be it from Alex to shy away from giving her opinions on the shortcomings of other parents.
There was a mom at another table who wore all black and told her hyperactive daughter that they had to have a family meeting to decide what to do next. The type of woman who might ask her daughter to "process her feelings" about which color to choose. The type of woman who wanted make [sic] a big huge hairy deal about including her daughter in the decision-making process and "negotiating" the next best step for the family to take in the pottery shop. Pardon me while I shoot myself.
I'm sorry, but I just cannot respect this take coming from a woman who calms her sons by reciting comedic children's poetry backwards.
We next learn that there are "many websites out in cyberspace," some of which offer child-rearing advice. Simon summarizes their useless "vitriol" as such:
They say that hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, whereas for the 21st century surely hell no longer hath fury, as it's all been hurled at the belittled and scorned Internet mom.
I'm honestly not entirely sure what this is supposed to mean, and my confusion continues all the way through this chapter's "Top 10 Ways We Make Ourselves Feel Better When It's All Getting To Be Too Much." We begin reasonably enough…
  1. Check to see whether the person offering advice has children. How old are they?
  2. Do they have a point? Are they right? It is entirely possible.
…before quickly losing all sense of self-awareness and flying completely off the rails.
  1. Will we ever see this person again? If not, can we get away with unleashing our fury on them? Note, if you're reading this and decide to try it for yourself, go big or go home.
The last few chapters have been a bit Alex-heavy, but never fear -- Simon pops back up in Chapter 9 ("If I Wouldn't Eat That, My Kid Won't Either") to tell us a charming story about how the family refers to his Bolognese sauce as "Dead Cow Sauce," and this is because his children are incredibly enlightened and understand the circle of life and where food comes from. Or something along those lines.
This chapter also provides a lot of really incontrovertible proof that, even though you may swear that your kids say the most hilarious things all the time, you are wrong. I love kids. I can play cool aunt with the best of them. But this "recipe" for "Johan's Concoction" tries so hard to be cute and funny ("whisk violently -- making sure to spill a little out of the top") that I could barely stifle my groans. For anyone who happens to frequent RebornDollCringe, I am strongly and inexplicably reminded of Britton.
A list of "Top 10 Things We Don't Like About Children's Restaurants" culminates with
  1. Where would you rather be? A bistro devoted to race-car driving, with 1950s toy cars on the walls, or T.G.I. Friday's?
Excuse me, ma'am, you must be unfamiliar with the concept of Endless Apps®.
The title of Chapter 10 is "You'll Give in Before I Do!" and although the subtitle lets me know this is referencing "the art and warfare of bedtime," it's hard not to take it as a personal taunt from the authors. Most of this chapter is just transcriptions of 'cute' things François and Johan have said to try to avoid going to bed, but we do get this gem:
Slaying the dragon is our family euphemism for using the toilet (drowning the dragons that live in the sewer) and is fun for the boys to talk about, though probably not forever.
Before giving us a chance to adequately process this revelation, Alex goes on to reflect:
Hmm, perhaps I should delete this -- I don’t want obnoxious classmates getting hold of this book in 10 years and asking the boys if they need to slay the dragon in the middle of geometry class.
Alex, I assure you, you truly have nothing to worry about. Any self-respecting bully will be far too focused on the fact that Simon ejaculated at the moment of his son's birth to pay this comparatively trivial factoid any attention.
The authors shake things up and end this chapter with lists of both "Top 20 Bedtime Stories" and "Top 10 Lullabies," both of which are thankfully inoffensive.
In Chapter 11 ("Children Like Shiny Objects"), we follow Alex and Simon as they purchase the townhouse we see them renovating on RHONY. Although other (read: lesser) parents might store breakables out of reach or limit children's toys to playrooms and bedrooms, Alex and Simon were blessed with two boys whose aesthetic sensibilities are already quite developed:
One kind of funny thing that I noticed recently is that the toys the boys tend to leave upstairs in our red and black living room often tend to be red and black as well. I'm not sure whether that's intentional, but it's funny that the room always seems to match regardless of its contents.
The list of "Top 10 Craziest Places We've Found Objects" is mercifully absent of any orifice-related discoveries.
After reading just the title of Chapter 12 ("Raising Baby Einsteins"), I'm bracing myself for the self-satisfied smugness to come. This preparation turns out to be duly warranted. Baby sign language is dismissed as "a scheme dreamed up by ASL experts who wanted to sell classes to easily influenced new parents," Mommy and Me classes are "not really for teaching anything," and we learn that Alex and Simon have instituted a bizarre family rule that "if a talking toy came into our house, it had to speak a foreign language or speak English in an accent other than American."
We learn that Simon apparently does not know what antonyms are (for the record, Simon, the word you're looking for is homophones) and that New York City is replete with "wailing, nocturnal, type-A obsessed harridans willing to sleep with persons not their spouse if they think it will help their child get into THE RIGHT SCHOOL." Uh, yikes. After a tediously long description of François' pre-school admissions process, Alex informs us:
As a former actor, I've always gotten into play-acting and dressing up with my children. Perhaps a little too much. But I've taken the opportunity to show off a few old monologues, complete with bounding around like a puppy. If you have knowledge, why not share it? If you happen to know Puck's speeches from a Midsummer Night's Dream by ear with tumbling and staged sword play, why the heck don’t you share that with your boisterous boys, who love it and run around shouting, "Thou speakest aright!"
I am suddenly compelled to call my mother and thank her profusely for never making me put up with anything like this. Maybe I'll also get her thoughts on one of the tips listed in "Top 10 Favorite 'Developmental' Things To Do": "if they want something that you want to delay giving them, make them ask in every language they can before giving in." To me, this seems like an effective way to encourage your children to learn how to say "Fuck you, mom" in French as early as possible.
In Chapter 13 ("Urban Wonderland"), Alex and Simon promise to share their unique perspective on "taking advantage of raising a child in the urban jungle." But mostly, we just get a rant about how everyone thinks their kids have weird names, and that makes Simon mad. This chapter's "Top 10 Reasons New York is the Center of the Universe to a Kid" list reminds us what truly matters: "there are more songs with NYC in their titles than any other city."
Immediately after telling us how great it is to live in a city (excuse me, urban jungle), Alex and Simon switch tack and spend Chapter 14 ("'Daddy, a Cow! And It's Not in a Zoo!") expounding on the importance of exposing kids to nature. Sounds great, I'm on board. Unfortunately, we almost immediately take a hard left turn into a story from Simon's childhood where he and his brother are "befriended by this old guy, Dick, who lived on the outskirts of town in a small tin shed." We hear that Dick "occasionally pulled out an early Playboy magazine back from the days when the lower regions were airbrushed out," and that "there had been pretty strong rumors of pedophilia," before promptly returning to the main narrative with no further explanation. I can only describe the transition as 'jarring.'
I can tell how exhausted I am at this point in the book by how hurriedly I skimmed the list of "Top 10 Differences We've Noticed Between City Kids and Country Kids." To be honest, I'm almost annoyed when a particularly bizarre quote manages to catch my attention, because that means I have to think about it for the full amount of time it takes me to transcribe from the page. I'm beginning to think that my initial hope that I could glean some useful cat-rearing advice from this experience may have been overzealous.
Chapter 15 ("You're Such a Great Parent, You Should Be on TV (LOL)") is the only chapter to directly address the family's time on RHONY. It starts with this (attempted) comedy bit in which Alex and Simon pretend to be hilariously self-aware and self-effacing (Alex: "Look up 'Mommylicious' in the dictionary and you will see a photo of me in a ball gown, breast-feeding an infant while making Osso Buco and directing carpenters to build a bookcase for my Dickens and Shakespeare."). This posture would be infinitely more believable if I hadn't spent the previous 205 pages watching these two take themselves deadly seriously.
But rather than share any juicy behind-the-scenes tidbits (or, indeed, convey anything of substance at all), Alex and Simon spend exactly 3.5 pages blustering about how it wasn't harmful for their children to be on TV before giving us a list of "Top 10 Hilarious Things The Boys Have Done While Filming or at Photo Shoots." Spoiler alert: none of them are 'hilarious.'
Chapter 16 is literally titled "The Light at the End of the Tunnel," which makes me feel like this whole experience may have just been Alex and Simon playing some sort of twisted game with me. Alex tells us this is "the chapter of hope," but given that she then tells us about a time when she "spent one full hour discussing why magic markers cannot be carried around with the caps off, particularly in a hotel suite with white couches and walls," I'm not sure exactly where this hope is coming from. Also it seems like this markers-in-a-hotel-room thing happens weirdly frequently. We are then treated to Alex and Simon's "Top 10 Moments of Getting It,'" which includes
  1. Apropos of nothing, Johan said, "You give us time-outs because you are teaching us to be good grown-ups."
This is a thing I'm sure Johan said completely organically and not in response to hearing his parents say "we're giving you a time-out so that you learn to be a good grown-up" approximately seven zillion times.
This brings us to the book's Epilogue (a mercifully short two pages) featuring the line "If you made it to the end of this book, we salute you." Honored to accept this hard-earned accolade, I can finally close the book and start figuring out a way to erase the memory of Simon busting a mid-childbirth nut from my aching brain. Wish me luck!
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Script for "History of the entire world I guess" by Bill wurtz

hi, you're on a rock floating in space. pretty cool, huh? some of it's water. fuck it. actually, most of it's water. i can't even get from here to there without buying a boat. it's sad. i'm sad. i miss you. HOW DID THIS HAPPEN? a long time ago... actually, never. and also now. nothing is nowhere. when? never. makes sense, right? like i said, it didn't happen. nothing was never anywhere. that's why it's been everywhere. it's been so "everywhere," you don't need a "where." you don't even need a "when." that's how "every" it gets. forget this. i wanna be something. go somewhere. do something. i want things to change. i want to invent time and space. and i know it's possible because everything is here, and it probably already happened. i just don't know when to start. and that's exactly where it started. big bang— pause woah. i paused it. i think there's a universe now. what's it made of? quarks and stuff. ah, that's a thing! in a place! don't like it? try a new place, at a different Time™. try to stick together, because the world is gonna get bigger and emptier. but it's not empty yet! it's still very full, and about a kjghpillion degrees. about no seconds later great news! the quarks are now happily married in groups of three, called a "proton" and a "neutron." and there's something else flying around that wants to join in, but can't cause it's too HOT. ten minutes later great news! the protons and neutrons are now happily married to each other! some of them even doubled up. about 380,000 years later great news! the electrons have now joined in. congratulations! the world is now... a bunch of gas in space. but it's getting closer together... ten million years later and it's getting closer together... 500 million years later and it's getting closer togeth—star is born it's a star new shit just got made! some stars burn out and die. bigger stars burn out and die with passion! and make some brand new way crazier shit. space dust! which allows for newer and more interesting stars to be made, and then die and explode into even crazier space dust! so now, stars have cool stuff around them, like rocks, ice, and funny clouds, which can make some very interesting things. like this ball of flaming rocks, for example. meteor hits earth holy shit, we just got hit by another ball of flaming rocks. and it kind of... made a mess. which is now the moon weather update: it's raining rocks from outer space. weather update: those rocks might've had water inside of them and now there's hot steam in the sky. weather update: cooler temperatures today and the floor is no longer lava. weather update... it's raining. severe flooding alert, the entire world is now an ocean. volcano alert. that's land! there'slifeintheocean what? something's alive in the ocean oh, cool. like a plant, or an animal? no! a microscopic speck. it lives in the bottom of the ocean and eats chemical soup, which is being served hot and fresh, made from gnarly space ingredients left over from when it was raining rocks or whatever. microscopic speck asexually reproduces oh yeah, and it can do that. reproduces three more times it has secret instructions written inside itself telling it how to build another one of itself. so that's pretty nifty, i would say. tired of living at the bottom of the ocean? now you can eat sunlight! using a revolutionary technique, you can convert sunlight into food. taste the sun! side effect, now there's oxygen everywhere and the sky is blue. then the earth might've been a snowball for a while. maybe even a couple of times. it's a sponge... it's a plant... it's a worm, and some other types of weird strange water bugs and strange fish. it's the Cambrian explosion: "wow, that's animals and stuff" but we're still in the ocean. hey, can we go on land? NO why? the sun is a deadly laser oh okay. not anymore, there's a blanket now the animals can go on land. come on, animals, let's go on land! "nope, can't walk yet." "and there's no food yet, so i don't care." 100 million years later okay, will you learn to walk if there's plants up here? "maybe," said some bugs. and fish. fish gasps for air five million years later okay, so i can go on land, but i have to go back in the water to have babies! idea: learn to use an egg. "i was already doing that" use a stronger egg. put water in it. have a baby, on land, in an egg. water is in the egg. baby, in the egg, in the water, in the egg. works for me. bye bye ocean 50 million years later and now everything's huge. including bugs. wanna see a map of the land? sure. Permian extinction oh, fuck, now everything's dead. just kidding, here are the survivors. keep your eye on this one, because it's about to become 75 million years later the dinosaurs. here's another map of the land. yeah, it broke apart. don't worry about it, it does that all the time. here comes a meteor. meteor strikes and the dinosaurs are gone it's mammal time, here come the mammals. look at those breasts. now they're gonna dominate the world, but one of them just learned how to grab stuff. and walk. no, like, walk like that. and grab stuff at the same time. and bang rocks together to make pointed rocks. "ouch" and set things on fire. "yeouch" and make crazy sounds with their voice: "gneurshk" which can mean different things. that's a human person! and now they're everywhere. almost. ice age! what? you can walk over here? cool. not anymore well i guess we're stuck here now. let's review: there's people on the planet. and they're chasing their food. fuck it. time to plant some grass. look at this. i get to control the food now. now everyone will want to be my friend and live near me. let's all build houses, except mine is bigger because i own the food. this is great! i wonder if anyone else is doing this. tired of using rocks for everything? use metal. it's underground. better farming was just invented in a sweet dank valley right in between these two rivers, and the animals are helping. guess what happens next? more food. and more people, who came to buy the food. now you need people to help make the food and keep track of the sales. and now you need houses for people to live in and people to make the houses and now there's more people and they invent things which makes things better and more people come and there's more farming and more people to make more things for more people and now there's business, money, writing, laws, power, Society coming soon to a dank river valley near you. meanwhile, out in the middle of nowhere, the horse is probably being tamed. why is all my metal so lame and lumpy? tired of using lame, sad metal? introducing: bronze. made from special ingredient tin from the far lands of Tin Land. i dunno, my dealer won't tell me where he gets it. also, guess what? egypt meanwhile, out in the middle of nowhere, they figured out how to put wheels on a horse. now we're getting somewhere. also, china and did i mention indus river valley civilization society count: 5 ... norte chico the middle east is getting more complicated. maybe because it's in the middle of the east. knock knock, er, clop clop. it's the... people with the horses? and they made an empire. and then everyone else copied their horses. greeks! ah look, it must be the greeks! er, a beta version of the greeks. let's check in with the indus river valley civilization: they're gone. guess who's not gone? china. new arrivals from india... maybe it's those horse people i was talking about... or their cousins or something... and they wrote some hymns and mantras and stuff... you could make a religion out of this. there's the bronze age collapse. now the phoenicians can get down to business also, can we switch to a metal that's a little easier to find? thanks. look who came back to israel, it's the twelve tribes of israel. and they believe in God just one though, and he's got like a ten-step program. here's some huge heads. must be the olmecs. the phoenicians make some colonies. the greeks copy their idea and make some colonies. the phoenicians made a colony so big it makes colonies. here comes the assyrian empire. never mind, it's the babyloni— media—it's the Persian Empire: "wow, that's big" enlightenment ah, the buddha was just enlightened. who's the buddha? this guy, who sat under a tree for so long that he figured out how to ignore the fact that we're all dying. you could make a religion out of this. oops, china just broke. but while it was breaking, confucius was figuring out how to have good morals. enlightenment ah, the greeks just had the idea of thinking about stuff. and right over here, alexander just had the idea of conquering the entire persian empire. it's a great idea. he was... great. and now he's dead. hopefully, the rest of the gang will be able to share the empire evenly between them. knock knock, it's chandragupta. he says "get the hell out of here. will you get the hell out of here if i give you 500 elephants? okay, thanks, bye" time to conquer all of india er most of india but what about this part? that's the tamil kings. no one conquers the tamil kings. who are the tamil kings? merchants, probably. and they've got spices! who would like to buy the spices? "me!" said the arabians, swiftly buying it and selling it to the rest of the world. hey, china put itself back together again, with good morals as their main philosophy. actually, they have three main philosophies: confucianism: have good morals taoism: go with the flow legalism: fuck you, obey the law out here, the horse nomads run wild and free, and they would like to ransack your city. nomads ransack china let's check the greekification levels of the greekified kingdoms: greekification overload. bye, said the parthians. bye, said the jews. hi, said the parthians, taking over the entire place. heyyyyy, said the romans, eating the entire mediterranean for breakfast. "thanks for invading our homeland," said the jews, who were starting to get tired of people invading their homeland. "hi, everything's great," said some guy who seems to be getting very popular and is then arrested and killed for being too popular, which actually makes him more popular. you could make a religion out of this. want silk? now you can buy it from china. they just made a brand new road to the world. conquers vietnam or you can get there on water "sick! new trade routes!" said india, accidentally spreading their religion to the entire southeast. hmm, that's a good place for an epic trading kingdom. there goes buddhism, travelling up the silk road. i wonder if it'll reach china before it collapses again. remember the persian empire? yep, said the persians, making a new one. axum is getting so powerful, they would like to build a long stick. has anyone populated madagascar yet? let's do it together. china is whole again... ...then it broke again still can't cross the sahara desert? try camels. "hell yeah! now we've got business," said the ghana empire, selling lots of gold. and slaves. "hi, i'm a member of the roman empire, and i was wondering is loving jesus legal yet?" "no" "actually, okay sure," said constantine, moving the capital way over here to be closer to his main rival. don't worry about rome, it won't fall. it's the golden age of india there's the gupta empire, not chandragupta, just gupta. first name chandra. the first. guess who's in rome? barbarians. what's a barbarian? "non-romans," said the romans, being invaded by non-romans. r.i.p. roman empire. actually just half of it, the other half is just fine, but it's not in rome anymore, so let's give it a new name. the mayans have figured out the stars oh, and here's a huge city, population: everyone. the göktürks have taken over the entire eurasian steppe. great job, göktürks. how's india? broken. how's china? back together. how's those trading kingdoms? bigger, and there's more of them. korea has three kingdoms. japan has a kingdom, it's the sunrise kingdom. intermission deep in the arabian desert, on the top of a mountain, the real god whispers in muhammad's ear. so, he goes down to the cube where everyone worships gods and he tells them their gods are all fake. and everyone got so mad at him that he had to leave town and go to a different town. you could make a religion out of this, and maybe conquer the world as well. the roman empire is long gone, but somehow the pope is still the pope. plus, there's new kingdoms all over europe. i wonder if there's room for moors. here's all the wisdom. in a house. it's the baghdad house of wisdom! just in time for the islamic golden age! "let's bring stuff to the coast and sell it, and become the swahili on the swahili coast," said the swahili on the swahili coast. remember this tiny space you have to go through to get from here to there? someone owns that now. wanna get enlightened in the middle of nowhere? the franks have the biggest kingdom in europe, and the pope is so proud that he invites the king over for christmas. "surprise! you're the new roman emporer!" said the pope, pretending to still be part of the roman empire. then the franks broke their kingdom into what will later be called france and not-france. the northerners, er, just "norse" if you don't have much time, are exploring. they go north, from the north to the northern north. and they find some land— two types of land!— and they name them accordingly. prankd they also invade some other places and get called many names, such as "vikings." there's the rus! the kievan rus! are they vikings? "i don't think so," said the kievan rus. okay, fair enough. the pope is ready to make some more emperors of the roman empire. the holy roman empire! it's actually germany, but don't worry about it. new kingdoms—CRISTIANIZE ALL THE KINGDOMS!! which brand would you like? "mine's better" "mine's better" "mine's better" "time to conquer england," said william. it's a bird! it's a plane! it's the seljuk turks! "aah!" said the byzantine empire, who's getting so small and almost doesn't exist anymore. "we need help!" they need help! so they call the pope. "hey pope, can you help us get rid of the seljuks? maybe take back the holy land on the way? come on, i know you want to take back the holy land." "yes, i do actually want to do that. let's do a crusade." crusade! they did many crusades. some of which almost didn't fail. but at least the italians got some sweet trade deals. goodbye mayans. hello toltecs! goodbye toltecs. hello mississippi! look at those mounds. there's the pueblo. i always wondered how to build a town in a cliff. guess who's here? khmer. where? here! and pagan is there. vietnam unconquered itself, korea just became itself, and japan is so addicted to art that the military might have to take over the government. china just invented bombs, and typing. and the mongols just invaded most of the universe. nice going, genghis! i bet that will last a long time. some of the islamic turks were unaffected by the mongol invasions because they were busy invading india. is it tonga time? i think it's tonga time. i just figured out where the swahili gets all of their gold. look at this chad! it means "lake." there's an empire there! right in the middle of africa! the king of mali is so rich, he's going on tour to let everyone know. "wow, that guy's rich," everyone said. the christians are doing a great job reconquering iberia, which will soon be called spain and not-spain. please remain christian. we will check in later to see if you're still christian when you least expect. whoops, half of europe just died. ming! china's back, yay! hey, khmer. time to share. new kingdoms, here and there. oh, look who controls all of the islands. it's the mahajapit. majahapit. mapajahit. mahapajit. mapajahit. ma-ja-pa-hit? oh, italy's real rich. time for them to care a lot about art and the ancient classics. it's kinda like a rebirth. here's a printer. let's make books! so you think you can conquer the byzantine empire? yep, said the ottoman turks. nice job, ottoman turks. oops, you missed a spot. don't forget to ban europe from the indian spice trade. "what? that's bullshit," said portugal, spiceless. "well i guess we'll have to find another way to india" "wait!" said christopher columbus, probably smoking crack. "if the world is round, let's go this way to india." "nah, don't worry, we already got this," said portugal. so chris goes to spain. "hey spain, wanna hire me to find india by going around back of the world?" "no" "please?" "no" "please?" "wtf" "no" "please?" "...okay" so he sails into the ocean, and discovers... more ocean. and then discovers the indies, and japan! let's draw a line to decide who gets which half of the world. the aztec and the inca empires are off to a great start. i wonder if they know that europe just discovered their continent. the hapsburgs are marrying into so many royal families, they might have to start marrying each other. move over, lithuania, here comes moscow. ivan wants to make russia great again. move over, timurids, maybe go invade india or something. persia just made persia persian again. let's make it the other kind of islam. the one where we thought the first guy should've been the other guy. hey, christians! do you sin? now you can buy your way out of hell! "that's bullshit. this whole thing is bullshit. that's a scam. fuck the church. here's 95 reasons why," said martin luther, in his new book which might have accidentally started the protestant reformation. "you know what would be magnificent?" said suleiman wearing an onion hat. "what if the ottoman empire was... really big?" which it is now. "what if russia was big?" said ivan, trying not to be terrible. portugal had a dream that they controlled the entire indian ocean, including the spice trade. and then that dream was real. and spain realized that this is not india, but they pillaged it anyway. "damn," said england and france. "we gotta start pillaging some stuff." then the dutch revolt, and all the hipsters moved to amsterdam. "damn," said amsterdam. "we gotta start pillaging some stuff." question one: can you get to india from north america? no, but at least there's beaver. question two: steal the spice trade. that's not a question, but the dutch did it anyway. and sugar... guess where all of the sugar is made? in brazil! stolen! in the caribbean! and it's so goddamn profitable, you might forget to not do slavery. the next thing on russia's to-do list is to get bigger. britain and france are having a friendly discussion about who should control the entire world. more specifically, ohio. then it escalates into a seven-year discussion, giving prussia a chance to show austria who's boss. but what about britain and france, did they figure out who's boss? yes they did! it's britain. guess who's broke? also britain! so they start taxing the hell out of america. "fuck you!" says america, declaring their independence and fighting for it, and france helps them win. now france is broke, and britain will have to send their prisoners to a different continent. wait, if france is broke, why do the king and queen still wear such fancy dresses? "let's overthrow the palace and cut all their heads off!" said robespierre, cutting everybody's heads off until someone eventually got mad and cut his head off. you could make a rel— no, don't. haiti is starting to like the idea of a revolution, especially the slaves, who free themselves by killing their masters. "why didn't we think of this before?" wait, who's in charge of france now? "me," said napoleon, trying to take over europe. luckily, they banished him to an island. but he came back! luckily, they banished him to another island. there goes latin america, becoming independent in the latin american wars of independence. britain just figured out how to turn steam into power, so now they can make many different types of machines and factories with machines in them so they can make a lot of products real fast. then they invent some trains. and conquer india and maybe put some trains there. "hey, china!" said britain. "buy stuff from us!" "nah, dude, we already got everything," says china. so britain tried to get them addicted to opium, which worked, actually. but then china made it illegal and dumped it all into the sea. so britain threw a hissy fit and made them open up five cities and give them an island. britain and russia are playing a game where they try to stop the other person from conquering afghanistan. also, the sultan of oman lives in zanzibar now: "that's just where he lives." india just had a revolution, and they would like to govern themselves now. "nope," said britain, governing them even harder than before. incoming telegram: HI I JUST SENT YOU A MESSAGE THRU A WIRE technology is about to go crazy! the united states finally figured out whether slavery is good or bad. it's bad, they decided, and then they continued manifesting their destiny, which is to kill the rest of the natives and take their land and maybe kick out the mexicans too. "i know! let's rape africa!" said europe, scrambling to see who could rape it the fastest. they never got ethiopia... britain and france are still hungry. they never got thailand... the united states ran out of destiny to manifest, so they're looking for more: hawaii! cuba! wait, spain controls cuba. well, blame something on them and go to war! what should we blame on spain? u.s.s. maine sinks "let's blame the maine on spain." so they blame the maine on spain. now we're in business. to celebrate, they kick panama out of panama and make a canal, connecting the two oceans. britain just found oil in the middle east. it makes cars go... china is so tired of being bossed around that they delete their old government and make a new, stronger government, which is accidentally weaker and is controlled by a guy from the previous government. europe hasn't had a war since the last war, so they start world war one. look at those guns! it's gonna be a great war, so great we won't need a second one. after it's over, they blame germany. russia went on strike, and the workers overthrew the government. now, everyone's paycheck is the same. communism in the soviet union... the arabs revolt and britain helps. now the ottoman empire is gone, so we can give the jewish people a place to live. hopefully the arabs won't mind. "let's cut the cake!" said sykes and picot, carving up the remains of the not-so-ottoman-anymore-empire. except turkey! turkey makes a brand new turkey! and then the saudis conquer arabia. it just seemed like the right thing to do. phone rings hello? yes, it's the 1920's calling. let's get to a car and drive to a party and listen to jazz on the radio and go to the movies. the economy is great and it will probably be great forever. just kidding. germany's back, featuring hitler, the angry mustache model, and he's mad at the jews for existing. japan is finally conquering the east, and they're so excited, they rape nanking way too hard. they should probably just deny it. hitler's out of control, so the international community tackles him and tries to explain to him why killing all of the jews is a bad idea. but he kills himself because they could explain it to him. that's world war two! bonus round! pacific showdown united states vs. japan FIGHT!! united states drops two extinction balls on japan FINISH HIM! let's unite all the nations and have some world peace! seems legit. "hi, im gandhi, and if britain doesn't get the hell out of india, i'm going to starve myself in public." britain leaves "wow, that worked?" bonus! now there's pakistan. actually two pakistans, one of them can be bangladesh later. the jews and the arabs finally figured out which one of them should live in the holy land. "me!" they both said at the same time. let's divide up the lands so we're both happy. SIKE! they both get angrier! look out, china! there's a new china in china. what's on the menu? communism! no thanks, said the other china, escaping to an island. i wonder which one is the real china...? there's the korean war. korea versus korea! nobody wins, then its on pause forever. let's meet the sponsors. oh, it's the two global superpowers. they're having a friendly debate over which economic system is good and which one is an evil virus of satan. and they both have atom bombs. FIGHT!! wait, no, that would be the end of the world. let's just keep it cool and spy on each other instead. and make sure we have enough atom bombs. "i'll race you to space." united states plants a flag on the moon now let's make more countries fight themselves. europe is tired of pillaging other continents, and the continents they were pillaging are tired of being pillaged. so here's a new map with new countries. now you can't tell who they're being pillaged by. the united states finally decided whether racism is good or bad. they decided it's bad, and the world agrees. south africa might need another minute to think about it. let's check the world population! woah. okay. technology is better too, that might keep happening. the soviet union decides to relax a little, and accidentally falls apart. europe makes a union, so now they can all use the same money. except britain, because they don't feel like it. let's check the mail... surprise! it's on the computer! whoops, someone just attacked america. i bet they'll remember that. phone call! surprise! it's in your pocket! wanna learn everything? surprise! it's on the computer! now your phone's a computer, which is in your pocket! whoops, the economy just crashed. don't worry, the big banks won't fail, because they're not supposed to. surprise!... flying robots. with bombs. wanna print a brain? some people have no friends. some people have no food. the globe is warming, and the ocean is full of plastic! "let's save the planet!" said everybody, not knowing how. "let's invent a thing inventor," said the thing inventor inventor after being invented by a thing inventor. that's pretty cool. by the way, where the hell are we? thanks for watching history i hope i mentioned everything
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General Election Polling Discussion Thread (July 26, 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Poll Date Type Biden Trump
YouGov 7-26 National 51 41
YouGov 7-26 Michigan 48 42
YouGov 7-26 Ohio 45 46
Marist College 7-26 Arizona 50 45
SSRS/CNN 7-26 Michigan 52 40
SSRS/CNN 7-26 Florida 51 46
SSRS/CNN 7-26 Arizona 49 45
Gravis Marketing 7-25 Pennsylvania 48 45
Echelon Insights 7-24 National 50 37
Echelon Insights 7-24 National 49 40
Echelon Insights 7-24 National 51 41
Echelon Insights 7-24 National 52 43
Echelon Insights 7-24 National 53 38
Gravis Marketing 7-24 Michigan 51 42
Gravis Marketing 7-24 Wisconsin 50 42
Data for Progress 7-24 National 49 43
Data for Progress 7-24 National 49 43
Fox News 7-23 Minnesota 51 38
Fox News 7-23 Pennsylvania 50 39
Fox News 7-23 Michigan 49 40
Global Strategy Group 7-23 National 50 39
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 7-23 National 51 43
GQR Research (GQRR) 7-23 National 55 44
Quinnipiac University 7-23 Florida 51 38
St. Pete Polls 7-23 Florida 50 44
Spry Strategies 7-22 Wisconsin 46 45
Spry Strategies 7-22 Texas 44 49
Spry Strategies 7-22 Iowa 47 45
Spry Strategies 7-22 Arizona 49 44
Spry Strategies 7-22 Georgia 45 48
Spry Strategies 7-22 Michigan 45 49
Spry Strategies 7-22 Kentucky 33 60
Spry Strategies 7-22 North Carolina 45 48
Spry Strategies 7-22 Montana 41 51
Spry Strategies 7-22 Pennsylvania 47 47
Harris Insights & Analytics 7-22 National 45 38
Quinnipiac University 7-22 Texas 45 44
Ipsos 7-22 National 43 34
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 7-22 Georgia 47 43
Rasmussen Reports 7-22 National 47 45
Public Policy Polling 7-22 Arizona 49 45
YouGov 7-22 National 48 41
Morning Consult 7-22 National 47 40
Ipsos 7-22 National 46 38
Rasmussen Reports 7-21 Pennsylvania 51 46
Rasmussen Reports 7-21 Ohio 50 46
Trafalgar Group 7-20 Georgia 43 49
Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) 7-20 North Carolina 47 48
Fox News 7-19 National 49 41

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
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Why Stupid Horse is a criticism of capitalist America and the American Dream

Stupid Horse is the 5th song on the hyper-pop duo 100gecs’ debut album: 1000gecs. 1000gecs was released on May 31st, 2019, and received heavy approval from the underground and PC music scene. Considered very bombastic and loud, 100gecs received critical reviews from many, who didn’t consider it real music. But as of their sophomore album: 100gecs and the Tree of Clues, 100gecs is beginning to receive more widespread attention and acceptance.
Stupid horse is at its base a highly critical analysis of capitalism and American culture. This biting criticism is demonstrated through absurdist lyrics following the assault of a horse jockey by an aggravated horse derby better. This criticism is played through an upbeat mix of Ska and electro-pop.
The song begins with the narrator talking about how they were in attendance of a horse race and bet their money on a horse. This titular “stupid horse” did not place as well as they had anticipated, so they lost their investment. It is implied that the sum of money that the narrator betted on the horse was incredibly high, as stated in a later lyric: “Lost all the money in my bank account (oh no!).”
The duo wastes no time in beginning their criticism of capitalism and American culture. Betting on horse racing has been a beloved American pastime since the establishment of the first horse racing track in Long Island by British colonizers in 1665.
The narrator is immediately quite aggravated by their unfortunate luck, and blames the horse, calling it stupid. This burst of outrage is common in American sports, especially when money is on the line. The narrator is so outraged in fact, that they go onto the track and assault the jockey in an attempt to quote, “get my [their] cash back.”
Take a look at the following lyrics in the first verse of the song:
“Bet my money on a stupid horse, I lost that So I ran out to the track to get my cash back I just gotta leave this place with a big bag So I found the fuckin' jockey and I grabbed that (pick it up!) Pushed him down to the ground and I Punched him in his face (in his face!) Yeah, I stole his phone, that put him in his place (in his place!) Me and the horse, we ran out of the place (the place!) Then we took my Porsche back to my place”
The narrator expresses their initial intent to leave the horse race with a quote, “big bag”. This hope is immediately torn to shreds when the horse they had placed a bet on performed poorly. The narrator physically assaults the jockey not just out of revenge, but seemingly out of spite as well. This is shown in the 8th line: “Yeah I stole his phone, that put him in his place.”
This lyric clearly characterizes the narrator as a borderline maniac, who views the jockey as lesser due to his poor performance. The narrator proceeds to steal not only the jockey’s phone, but also his horse, in an assumed attempt to recoup the narrator’s financial losses.
At the end of the first stanza, there is an interesting metaphor that is introduced. The narrator and the horse return to his home in a Porsche. I will delve into that a little later.
What proceeds after the first verse is the chorus of the song. It is as follows:
“Stupid horse, I just fell out of the Porsche Lost the money in my bank account, oh no Stupid horse, I just fell out of the Porsche Lost the money in my bank account, oh no Stupid horse, I just fell out of the Porsche Lost the money in my bank account, oh no Stupid horse, I just fell out of the Porsche Lost the money in my bank account”
This chorus just further solidifies the narrator’s distaste of the racing horse, as they believe that the horse is responsible for their loss. The chorus also contains the cryptic line: “I just fell out of the Porsche.” This is a callback to the first verse of the song where the narrator apparently gets into their Porsche with the horse, which would be very difficult considering that an average racehorse weighs 1,100 lbs (__ kg) and are quite large in size. The narrator is apparently pushed out of their Porsche, causing them to subsequently insult the horse again, calling it stupid.
This chorus leads me to question the sanity of the narrator, as any sane person would use proper equipment to transport a horse. It is especially strange considering that if anyone knows about the transportation of horses, it should be someone who observes and bets on horse races often.
The apparent insanity of the narrator is the base of 100gecs’ criticism of capitalist and American culture. The narrator is a well-to-do upper class citizen (which is apparent due to their possession of a Porsche), who wants to further their upper class status by betting a large sum of money (presumably their entire life savings) on a horse race. The satirical bite is incredibly evident, as the narrator is an exaggeration of the 1% in America, who can afford to spend their time betting extravagant amounts on horses while the working class continues to labor and many struggle to survive paycheck to paycheck.
The song’s second chorus, this time sung by Dylan Brady wraps up the satirical song in an incredibly satisfying way:
“Stupid horse and a swordfish dancer (Pick it up) Bet my money on a fishnet carousel Go, go, go, go, go so fast now Go, go, go, go, go so fast now Racing horses at the derby Why am I never getting lucky? I never have any money I never win any money”
This verse is largely self explanatory besides the first two lines. At first, the idea of a “swordfish dancer” confused me to no end, but after pairing it with the second line, I was able to piece together two possible conclusions.
My first take of the two lines is that the narrator was conditioned into a life of betting and money at a young age. By making reference to a “fishnet carousel”, he indicates that as a young child, he would bet on the winner of a carousel race. The third and fourth lines sound like the chanting of a child as he encourages his desired animal (a swordfish) to go quickly and win the race. The irony of this statement is that carousels are fixed, spinning on a vertical axis, they have no winners or losers. This absurd betting at an early age further characterizes the narrator as a person with questionable sanity.
My second theory is similar to the first, but instead of the narrator betting on a carousel at an early age, he is an adult with an addiction so severe that he is willing to bet on anything, including a children’s carousel ride. This theory again, paints him to be an unstable person with an addiction to betting. Which is fairly common in the United States.
Either way, the song paints the portrait of a deranged upper class citizen who seeks to up their status at any cost. The American Dream, although encouraging, can lead to many focusing on monetary success over everything else. The narrator is an example of exactly that. They bet their entire savings on a singular horse race with the hopes of making it big, and instead they lose out, sinking all their funds and emptying their bank account.
With this song, 100gecs are trying to illuminate the stupidity and absurdity that come with this type of blind bid for status, while bringing attention to wealth disparity and the United State’s unhealthy obsession with monetary success, as well as the ultimate futility of the American Dream.
I wrote this as a joke because I was very bored, but feel free to dissect and counter argue. I’d love to hear what points you guys have to make.
submitted by Cicularus to 100gecs [link] [comments]

My Experience with Lorin in the Early days

I have some perspective about Lorin from the early days I’d like to share. I don’t know if this will be helpful to anyone, but I’d like to share what I saw and felt during the arc of Lorin’s career from my vantage. These are insights I’ve had over the years from being somewhat around him, and watching his rise, and now fall. I won’t be writing directly about his actions and the women he hurt, that’s not my place, but I have total empathy for them and support for them in their quest for healing. I’m more writing this for those who were fans, and who might be trying to figure out what the fuck just happened, reconcile this whole traumatizing experience, and get a better understanding of who this man that had such a strong effect on them actually was. None of us really know, but we can try together to learn and get a clearer picture.
I first got into the west coast electronic music scene through Burning Man in the late 90’s/early 00’s. The first time I heard of Lorin was from friends who had been out on the playa in 98 and caught some of his sets, particularly at El Circo’s camp, and came back raving about him. A lot of the aesthetic and attitude and energy of the west coast electronic music/burner scene was really shaped and defined by the El Circo camp, and Lorin was their shamanic musical spiritual leader, and eventually the entire playa’s. El Circo was from Ashland and Lorin from South Bay, but they seemed somehow destined to meet. I don’t know when that happened exactly, but it was a powerful fusion. In 99/00/01, if Lorin was spinning at the El Circo tent, everyone was going. And by everyone, I mean like 4-500 people. Which at that point, even though Burning Man was pretty big, it felt like “everyone” on the playa, because it was the 4-500 people who deeply cared about being at the greatest electronic music party there could ever be (at that time), and knew they were in for something special. Whatever magic he channeled was there from the very beginning. And after two decades of watching it and seeing it and thinking about it I still have no idea what it was. I just know that everyone felt it viscerally and immediately.
My first experience with Lorin personally was talking with him after a gig in LA around the same time. There were maybe 20 people in the room, but I remember this powerful primal energy radiating from him as he spun. There was this sense of abandon in the people dancing. It was a vibe, an energy, that was unlike what emanated from any other DJ at the time, or since really. I talked with him outside afterwards just him and I for about 10 minutes as he was waiting for a ride. He made a strong impression on me that has stayed with me. He was extremely principled and motivated. He had just chosen the name Bassnectar instead of Lorin and was laughing about how it was ironic cause he felt his first track he had just put out had shitty bass cause he was still learning Reason. He was grounded and self effacing. He also clearly had an obsessive work ethic. He said he tried to spin an hour of new music every time he dj’d. I was like, what the fuck? This was during the era of vinyl. NOBODY spun an hour of new music every gig. I had no idea where he was even getting a new hour of music he was spinning each gig, which was super early dubstep/bass music and sounded incredible and totally exotic and foreign. I assumed later he was on very early message boards getting mp3’s directly from producers or something. There was no Beatport back then that’s for sure. He also spun on CDJ’s and was the first DJ I ever saw who was magically getting tracks from the net and burning cds to spin them. This was super alien at the time. Nearly everyone else was vinyl. Before Lorin, at least in California, anyone on CDJ’s was looked at like a wedding DJ.
He was extremely driven. When he talked he would look me in the eyes, but then look away when talking about how he wanted to be so much bigger than he was, and he stated that underlying that desire to be that big was to affect the kind of change he wanted to affect. No DJ I had met talked like this, and no DJ I knew of at this time was politically aware and motivated like this. Being a DJ was about rocking a party and that was it. There was very little if any social or status gain at this time to be talking like he was, if anything I’d say it was the opposite.
There have been several distinct generations of die hard fans of Lorin as far as I can tell. The first generation was I believe the earliest crews from the Santa Cruz beach parties and such. The second generation, which I witnessed, were semi-affectionately nicknamed the “beautiful people from the future”. These were the best dressed hottest wildest most creative rebellious entrancing people you’d ever seen, and they all seemed to show up at Lorin’s sets and they were by equal measure amazing and kind of pretentiously annoying, but undoubtedly were at the best parties, which Lorin was invariably DJing. Most of them have since retired to Nevada City. The third generation was I believe the “rave kids” as I heard them referred to as, who started showing up in droves at festivals, and no one knew where they came from. The beautiful people from the future started to drift off, there was a sort of handoff, and It was at that point that I remember thinking that his charisma and power is not scene specific, it jumps across generation lines, which blew my mind. Its been ongoing since then, until the end.
Lorin’s arc was obviously tragic, on many levels. He was set up as the chosen one from very early on. And its not like anyone was “looking” for a chosen one when he showed up. He really was just that dude no one could have known was coming, but everyone responded to instantly and accordingly. People who came back from Burning Man 98 who had caught his sets talked like they’d seen Jesus Christ himself, and these were dancefloors of maybe 200 people. My feeling, from occasional conversations with him over the years, what I heard from others, and observed in how he carried himself, was that he was aware of and did not want to fall into the egoic traps that come with a position like that, and fought very hard to resist them. I think the passion he had for social activism was his way of trying to redirect that adoration, and in fact in his mind really was the primary underlying reason behind managing and navigating the level of adoration that he anticipated he would need to deal with in the first place.
But the thing is, and here is where I believe he fell, you cannot consciously redirect or sublimate or override the ego traps that come with receiving that degree of adoration and reverence. You MUST have checks. But you can’t hire checks, or control them. You have to develop internal checks alongside inviting ruthless and brutal outside perspective, and that is going to look different for everyone, and it is going to be an extremely labor intensive task to develop and maintain - if you even can at that level. Lorin apparently could not. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. I believe that Lorin’s social activism originated from a very genuine place. I heard it in his voice when he had no reason to virtue signal, that was just not part of the landscape then. But I think it became compartmentalized, and became a smokescreen internally, as well as inevitably externally. From the outside we can’t reconcile this seeming hypocrisy, so we see it as deceptive and intentional and masterminded. But I will bet you a million fucking dollars Lorin didn’t see this hypocrisy himself until everything fell apart three weeks ago, if he even even saw it then, or will see it in 5 years, or ever. How much do normal people delude themselves and rationalize and compartmentalize? A LOT. Well imagine that you, a normal person, are also extremely driven, a borderline control freak with an overpowering vision, massively worshipped for two decades, and have literally no checks or balances on your power, and watch where your natural tendencies to compartmentalize and rationalize turbo-boosted by the force of fame lead: madness, cognitive dissonance, and the inevitable exploitation of others. You won’t mean harm. You won’t even be able to conceive of how your actions might cause harm. You will be so entitled and protected by money, fame, and adoration that you will be literally unable to see it. Until that is you are made to see it. And then its too late for everyone involved.
Lorin is 100% responsible for his actions. The warping effects of power and the path to unhealthy levels of narcissism are not an excuse. They create anti-social behavior, and a functioning society must regulate anti-social behavior. Many people have justifiably lost faith in the patriarchal justice system to regulate the anti-social and harmful actions of men in power. Cancel culture introduces forced accountability and immediate consequences for those who the hive mind deem in violation of standards of decency. There is value in this, for sure. But I can tell you, fwiw, as it appears to my generation, cancel culture offers something that aspires to look like a complete solution, but functions much more like punitive justice.
Punitive justice is the right of those who have the power to exercise it. But true healing comes from a far more nuanced and complex process. And it takes time, time that extends beyond the initial catharsis of justice. And you need to work to find the empathy that you were not shown. Not necessarily compassion, but empathy. If you see the person who hurt you as a one dimensional object, you are trapped in the same mindset that led them to hurt you. This cycle will not end. It is not “resolved” with the cancellation.
If there is no complexity to understand in the offender, no nuance to grasp, no motivation to understand, and nothing that is worthy of anyone’s time to examine because the nature of the offender’s offenses deem them irredeemable, they are no longer human. They become an archetype, an object, a cog in a machine. A faceless soulless monster that must be be destroyed, and upon being destroyed, the problem will have been solved. There is no growth, there is no insight, there is no actual learning. There is only “justice”, punitive and correctional. It is our modern prison system. This power is addictive. It is an endorphin rush. And it is its own ego trap. It sustains itself on an indefinite cycle of suffering.
I certainly have no horse in the race of what happens to Lorin. He made his bed and now has to lie in it. He is a human, who was exceptional, basically by definition, and failed to carry that weight in a moral way. Who knows what happens to him from here, if anything besides banishment.
Just know that, at least from my perspective, as someone who spoke with him and witnessed his idealism in its rawest form one to one and watched the magical effect he had on dance floors from pretty close to the beginning, he was in fact at one point the idealistic empathetic music channeling leader he later appeared to be. I have known and still know sociopaths, I have known and been deeply affected by people with hardcore narcissistic personality disorder. He may have eventually become what we tend to associate with these diagnoses, I don’t actually know, but I do NOT believe that he started out that way. It is my belief and it was my impression that he started out as a very real and very principled person, very genuine, and very empathetic. And I don't believe this because he charmed me, but because he didn’t charm me. He seemed to believe in something greater than pleasing others. I think he believed in trying his best to lead others to somewhere they couldn’t see themselves.
What I think is that a deep need to control, which was either born of a defensive mechanism from trauma, or the raw desire to lead, or both, became malignant over time, as his environment and position enabled these desires to become neuroses. At a certain point keeping a world view coherent with the needs and wishes of others became secondary to the needs of his ego. And at that point, rationalizations and compartmentalization raged uncontested. And that set the stage for abusive dynamics to follow.
As soon as he started saying that Bassnectar was a project not a person, in my opinion he began to disassociate, and to leave personal accountability behind. His need for control and to define what he was and what he meant to others became all powerful. His acknowledging the nature of collaboration, while simultaneously exhibiting unfair and exploitative business practices behind the scenes, was a symptom of a duality that had grown unchecked in his mind. The need and love for people (be with me), and what was probably a growing paranoia (get away from me), could not be reconciled. I think he was motivated by power and control and realizing a vision at all costs, initially to provide experiences for others, but eventually as a protective mechanism and a place to hide fears from himself. I would bet that the shitty terms he offered his collaborators were born of a misplaced desire for love. Love is a practice of releasing attachment, but in him it became twisted into the desire to exclusively possess.
I knew someone who toured with a major pop star, like one of the biggest stars ever. She said this person wanted everyone to do everything for free, because it was her way of trying to get love. She had become so paranoid and isolated, and everything was so transactional, she longed to just collaborate with people creatively and remove money from the process. And since she had absolute power, she could enforce this wish on those around her, and those who balked could then be identified as disloyal. It sounds batshit crazy to a normal person. But life as a normal person is a very different life from that of someone with absolute power. Absolute power, which is a product of absolute success, which is the thing this society programs us to desire at all costs, as the path to love and acceptance and greatness, will fuck your head up so quick you will have no idea what happened, what your name is, where you came from, what you stood for, or why you ever wanted any of those things in the first place. It will destroy you. And if you don’t have it you should thank your lucky stars. Because before you know it you will refuse to pay those who deserve it in order to convince yourself they love you, and pay those you think you love in order to control them.
Everything I am saying is addressed to those who are struggling with the pain of seeing someone who they believed in, who inspired them, and who led them, hurt those who also trusted him, and thereby betray everyone’s trust - but despite this betrayal, you can’t actually “cancel” him within yourself. For better of for worse, someone who means that much to you and has affected you as much as he has affected so many can’t just be eliminated internally. If you do that, you are punishing yourself and furthering the cycle of pain, and the attempt to do this will create a microcosm of the same unresolvable duality within you that destroyed Lorin.
You can do whatever you want with the music he made and the memory of the experiences he created. This is because you were a co-creator. How you feel about the music is unique, and how you feel about the experience is unique. Whatever “it” is isn’t real until its perceived, and you perceived it to make it uniquely real within yourself. So its yours to do what you want. The world is filled with enough projection and pain. Don’t absorb more than necessary.
Some people can never hear his music ever again, and need to purge him from their life. And some proudly listen to it still, and will always. These are both completely valid. Interestingly, how come there is not more discussion about coming to consensus on whether to cancel his music? How come there is not righteous indignation at the reposting of his sets here on this subreddit? I think it is because we know that music itself is mystical, and beyond any human moral projection or value system, and is as immensely personal as it is immensely social. Its the universe vibrating sympathetically with the way we feel, and vice versa, in a feedback loop of emotion.
You can choose to cancel Bassnectar and purge your library of his music and embrace the absolute and banish him from your life. Or you can choose to celebrate the importance he and his music had on your life, while making an effort to understand where the darkness within him that led to him creating such a betrayal actually came from. Both are valid ways of coping with loss.
But another thing you can do is to be grateful you were not born him. Because if you were in his shoes, maybe your corruption would not have manifested in the way his did, but I have yet to meet anyone in my life who I can honestly say could have walked the path Lorin did and not fallen prey to corruption manifesting in some way. Because it wasn’t a path he walked. It was a path he made. That kind of drive is a fire. And taken to the extreme level his fire took him, eventually it explodes. Sometimes we are sheltered from these explosions and hear about them after the person dies. In this case, it was in our face, and everyone got burned.
I can pretty much guarantee you Lorin is not taking his millions and happily going his own way wishing everyone “the brightest future”. He is very likely in an existential hell of his own making as the construct of fame and power comes crashing down around him and he is left facing the person he was 20 years ago before this all started, and realizing the horrific impact his actions have had on the ones he thought he loved. He is branded an outcast, but recognizable by all. Nowhere to hide, but alone in a room in a mansion his millions bought him, obsessively reading every word written about him on the net, realizing the absolute scale of the impact he had on so many people, for so good and then for so bad. Nowhere to go, nowhere to run, no redemption to be had.
And since he created pain in others that has led them to feel the same way, trapped in a cycle of shame and disempowerment and confusion that they cannot any more easily wave off and exit than he can, one could say justice has been served.
But maybe, in time, there can also be healing. And even understanding.
Breaking the cycle is not enough. You must also restore and strengthen the circle. This takes all parties.
Cancel culture has no roadmap for this. But maybe it can develop one.
With great power comes great responsibility. This goes both ways.
Beware the temptation of power. Its like the ring. We would all use it to do good.
Let us all find the grace to work together to find justice, healing, and growth.

submitted by lacontessavswhale to bassnectar [link] [comments]

What to look for in a racehorse? How To Spot A Winning Horse How to Pick a Horse at the Racetrack 6 Quick Steps Every Horse Racing Handicapper Should Follow Before Placing a Bet Top 5 Horse Racing Tips That Make You a Winner

We try to look out for times when a horse has an especially good record, or an especially bad record, over a similar distance to the race you are looking to bet on. On the subject of distance, we should also pay close attention to horses that are stepping up or stepping down in distance. Remember that a horse is a living creature with moods, sicknesses, etc. I can tell you with certainty that no one should be betting on me to be quick if I woke up on the wrong side of the bed that morning. Same principals apply to the horse. Does your horse seem like he’s happy and ready to go? Looking at your horse is going to give you an A simple way to determine if a horse likes an off track, is to check his Wet record on my tip sheet or look at the horse's individual past performances on a wet track. Luckily, I do the analysis for you for all track conditions. In addition, I also analyze turf races for the dirt (just in case they come off the turf due to inclement weather). Apart from that, it also tests your betting capability through different levels of betting games you must wager. Hence, if you look forward to gambling in the upcoming horse racing games this year, make sure that you’re familiar with the essential betting guides listed above to know how horse race betting works. Betting on a horse can be fun and profitable when you are lucky but also frustrating and a drain on resources when your selection falls at the first hurdle, and it is never easy to pick a winner. There are many techniques that punters use to try and improve their chances of coming out in […]

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What to look for in a racehorse?

Ahead of the Guineas Breeze Up & HIT Sale, find out what physical attributes you should be looking for in a racehorse. Whether you are new to handicapping or just want to get back to basics here are the 6 most important thoroughbred horse racing handicapping steps you need to take in order to consistently find ... An expert guide to spotting a winning horse. Spotting that winning horse could make you millions, but it is very tough! Learn how best to spot a winning horse by following VideoJug's guidance. Looking at the recent form of the horse is a must - the last three races run by the horse are listed on the Race Card close to each horse's name. Betting Odds are also a good indicator of the ... The basic facts of horse racing are explained. The programme shows what trainers look for when looking at a race horse, including presence, balance and temperament. Ella McSweeney explains the key ...