Breeders' Cup Betting Guide, Odds, Tips & Free Bets at
Breeders' Cup Betting Guide, Odds, Tips & Free Bets at
Breeders' Cup Betting Tips - Doc's Sports
2013 Breeders' Cup Turf Predictions and Betting Odds
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Betting The Breeders' Cup: Saturday Races 2013
Kentucky Derby 2019 Analysis
**Just a little background: I have posted my father's Derby write up the past few years and it seems to get a good response. If anyone has any questions I can see if he can answer them. Good luck! "I have been writing this analysis of the Kentucky Derby since 1983, but as I sit down to write this year’s analysis, I am awed by the fact that this will be my 50th consecutive Derby. So, from that standpoint, this write up is very special. First an overview of this year’s field: -The field will consist of 20 colts, 19 from America and one from Japan. -These colts will be trained by 16 different trainers, only 3 of these trainers have previously won the Derby. The other 13 will be trying to win it for the first time. -The colts entered in the race are a lightly raced group, much like last year’s entrants. However, this year’s colts are more lightly raced than last year’s – an average of 5.5 career starts (last year’s colts averaged 5.9 career starts before the Derby). -Last year I spoke about the way trainers were being very cautious in the number of races they are giving their charges. Well that trend is continuing this year. This year 10 colts have fewer than 6 career starts, half the field! -Additionally, 8 colts are going into the Derby with only 2 starts as a 3-YO. Back in the good old days (the 1980’s and 90’s), these lightly raced colts’ chances of winning the race were pretty slim, but today this is the norm among Derby entrants. -While the field is light on experience, they are long on earnings – 3 of them are already millionaires, a testament to the lofty purses colts are running for these days. I will now begin my analysis of all 20 colts (no fillies are entered this year), listing them in the order of points they have accumulated going into the Derby. But please remember that the order I analyze them in is probably not the order that I see them finishing the race. Tacitus: This son of Tapit is one of two colts in the race trained by Bill Mott who is seeking his first Kentucky Derby win. Tacitus has only 4 lifetime starts, including 2 this year. Many people felt that his win in the 1-1/8-mile Wood Memorial at Aqueduct was the best prep race of any of the 3-YOs this year. The winner of the Wood has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby 11 times, but the last Wood/Derby winner was in 2000. It seems like the “bloom is off the rose” as far as Wood winners repeating in Louisville. Though he has only raced 4 times in his career, his speed figures have increased as the distances have gotten longer – a good sign for a colt trying a 1-1/4 miles race in the Derby. I am a little concerned that he is untested against Grade 1 company (the Wood was a Grade 2 race), but I am sure he will take some play from the bettors come Derby day. I may have to use him in my exotic bets ( bets other than win, place & show) in the Derby. Omaha Beach: This colt has never been out of the money in 7 career starts. However, it took him 5 tries to break his maiden – not necessarily an encouraging sign. He has been the favorite in 6 of his 7 races, so he is somewhat of a “money burner”. However, that being said, he may very well be the favorite in the Derby and he gets the services of Mike Smith who had to choose between Omaha Beach and Roadster. I believe that the betting money will follow “Big Money Mike” on Derby day. Note that Mike Smith has only won 2 Kentucky Derbies from probably 20 or more mounts – not a good record for such an established rider. A couple of things that I don’t like about Omaha Beach; he began his career with 3 races on the grass before switching to dirt, 2 of his 3 wins have come on sloppy tracks with his other win by a narrow nose on a fast dirt surface. On the other hand, he has beaten proven colts in Game Winner (last year’s 2-YO champion) and Improbable (winner of the GR 1 Los Alamitos Futurity). His trainer, Richard Mandella, will be trying to win his 1st Derby (he is 0 for 6 in the race) with this colt and I have to say that he has as good a chance as anybody to win. Vekoma: Another lightly raced colt with only 4 career starts, including 2 this year, and, like Tacitus, he is untested against Grade 1 company. Trained by George Weaver, who is seeking his 1st Derby win, this colt won the BlueGrass Stakes beating Win Win Win and Signalman – two colts he may face in Louisville. The BlueGrass has produced 10 Derby winners, but none since 1991. He is a well-travelled colt, each of his starts has come over a different track. I have always liked this colt, he has a good late turn of foot (how fast he is) and being out of Candy Ride, the Derby distance should not be a problem. However, he has a weird way of “moving”; in the stretch he seems to “paddle” his left front leg. This may not serve him well in the long stretch at CD. Also, his trainer does not have a very good record in graded stakes competition, winning at only a 6% rate. I think he will present some good odds come Derby day and just might be a must use in the exotics. Plus Que Parfait: This colt’s claim to fame is that he won the $2.5M UAE Derby in Dubai in March. He is trained by Brendan Walsh who is another trainer seeking his 1st Derby win. I’ve observed that horses that fly half way around the world to run in Dubai, have a pretty hard time getting back into racing shape upon their return from that trip. He got the big money in Dubai but I don’t see him getting any money in the Derby so I will pass. Roadster: Roadster is one of Bob Baffert’s three possible Derby entrants and the colt that Mike Smith didn’t choose to ride in the Derby. This son of Quality Road (a very good sire), who will be ridden by Florent Geroux, is also lightly raced with only 4 career starts, including 2 this year. He did win the Santa Anita Derby over Game Winner and Instagrand and the Santa Anita Derby has produced 10 Kentucky Derby winners, including three since 2012 – Justify, California Chrome and I’ll Have Another. This colt overcame some breathing issues after surgery last year and had been ridden by Mike Smith in all his career starts, so when Mike chose Omaha Beach over Roadster it must have been a surprise to Baffert & Co. Obviously a very talented colt who might be the 2nd betting choice in the race, but I am unsure at this point how I will play him. By My Standards: This colt has 5 career starts and took four tries to break his maiden – not very encouraging. He is trained by Bret Calhoun, who is also seeking his first Derby win. He did win the Louisiana Derby at odds of 22-1 beating Spinoff and Sueno. However, the Louisiana Derby has only produced 2 Kentucky Derby winners, the last one being Grindstone in 1996. I am a little concerned about his ability to get the 1-1/4 miles in the Derby based on his breeding. I can’t really say that I would recommend anyone bet him to win so I will pass. Maximum Security: This undefeated colt, from 4 lifetime starts, began racing in December last year in claiming and optional claiming races (I guess his connections didn’t feel he was that good) and was not really tested until he ran, and won, the Florida Derby in a very good time. In that race he beat Code of Honor, Bodexpress and Bourbon War. All his wins have come by good margins (3-1/2 to 18 lengths. He is trained by Jason Servis who is also looking for his first Derby win. He has only gone two turns in a race once in 4 tries and has been ridden by 3 different jockeys in 4 races, again, something that is not that encouraging. I don’t think I will bet him. Game Winner: Last year’s 2-YO champion has won three Grade 1 races in 6 lifetime starts so he is a very good colt. He has never been out of the money and his two losses were by a nose and a ½ length. He lost the Santa Anita Derby to Roadster and the Rebel Stakes to Omaha Beach, two colts who will be highly regarded come Derby day. He is the second of Bob Baffert’s three probable entries. All three have the credentials to win the Derby and he has a win over the CD track last November in the Breeders’ Cup (always a plus to have a win over the CD surface). In a race full of speed, he has a tactical advantage in that he can get good position and lay off the pace until they hit the top of the stretch. On a slightly down note, he lost his 2 starts this year, each as the favorite, after an undefeated 2-YO campaign. Though he lost to good colts (see above) I am not sure that Bob had him cranked up for either of those efforts. He will likely be a reasonable price in the Derby, and I may have to take a long hard look at him before I bet. Code of Honor: A somewhat inconsistent colt, he has 2 wins in 5 lifetime starts, but 2 of his losses were in Grade 1 company. He has been beaten by Maximum Security and Bodexpress in the Florida Derby after he won the Fountain of Youth stakes over Bourbon War and Vekoma. He is trained by “Shug” McGaughey who won the 2013 Derby with Orb, and knows what it takes to win the Derby. His breeding is such that he could run all day so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. He will probably be a double digit price in the Derby and I am a little hesitant to do more than maybe put him in a trifecta or superfecta box. Haikal: Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin this colt could be Kiaran’s 1St Derby winner. Yeah, read that again - Kiaran has never won the Kentucky Derby. However, I don’t think this is his year to score that elusive victory. This colt was beaten by Tacitus and Tax in the Wood, 2 colts he will face in the Derby. Haikal has always been in the money, in 5 career starts, but has not run outside Aqueduct. I am suspect of a colt who has wintered in NY – he can’t be that good if they didn’t ship to FLA for the winter. I will pass, on the win bet but maybe find a place for him in the exotics. Improbable: Bob Baffert’s 3rd entry has finished in the money in all of his 5 career starts and has a win over the CD track. He won the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity in December before going to Arkansas for his 2 starts this year. In the Rebel, at Oaklawn, he was beaten by Long Range Toddy and then he was a close 2nd in the Arkansas Derby getting beat by Omaha Beach. He will face both colts in the Derby. His running style (tracking the pace) should suit him well. However, I question whether he can get the 1-1/4 miles of the Derby as he is out of City Zip, a sprinter. Anyway, he is a good colt with a very good trainer so I will have to take a long, hard look at him before deciding whether to bet him or not. War of Will: One of three colts in the race who have 8 lifetime starts, this Mark Casse trainee began his career with 4 starts on the turf before breaking his maiden at CD over a sloppy track. Casse has yet to win the Derby and I have doubts that this colt will give him his first Derby victory. This colt should not have any trouble with the distance, but he took a bad beating as the 4-5 favorite in the Louisiana Derby losing by 12 lengths to the likes of By My Standards, Spinoff and Suneo. His connections have always though highly of him. He was entered in three graded stakes races as a 2-YO even though he was a maiden, but I won’t be betting him in the Derby. Long Range Toddy: Another colt with 8 lifetime starts, he will try to get Steve Asmussen his first Derby win. However, he was badly beaten in the Arkansas Derby over a sloppy track by Omaha Beach, Improbable and Country House, although he did beat Improbable in the Rebel. I believe that he is not as good as he looks on paper and I don’t think he will get the Derby distance based on his breeding. It should be noted that he has never been the favorite in any of his 8 lifetime starts. I will likely bypass him in favor of others. Tax: A consistent colt who has finished in the money in all his 5 career starts. He began his career in claiming races, including one at CD, and was claimed for $50K in his 2nd start by his trainer Danny Gargan who is an up and coming trainer. It is rare that a former claimer runs in, let alone wins, the Derby. Tax’s last three races have been at a 1-1/8 miles all at Aqueduct so he should not have any trouble handling the Derby distance. He was beaten in the Wood by Tacitus, one of the likely Derby favorites, but was not able to get to the winner in the stretch. So, this is a colt who has plenty of potential, but I have to wonder if his trainer is ready to take on the big boys in Louisville. He will probably be double digit odds in the Derby and a 4th place finish might be as good as he can do. Cutting Humor: One of the two Todd Pletcher colts in the race, this colt sports 2 wins in 6 lifetime starts and I have to wonder why Todd thinks he should enter this colt. He is not that consistent having been beaten nearly 9 lengths as the favorite in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, behind Sueno and Long Range Toddy, and barely hanging on to beat Anothertwistafate in the Sunland Derby. He also lost to Bourbon War in an optional claiming race in January. This colt will be a longshot in the Derby and I will take a pass. Win Win Win: This colt has never finished out of the money in 6 lifetime starts for trainer Michael Trombetta, who is another trainer seeking his first Derby win. Trombetta has not won a graded stakes race in his career so why would he prevail in America’s greatest race? Also, I doubt that this colt can handle the distance of the race based on his breeding and the fact that his 2 wins have come in one turn races. He has been beaten By Vekoma in the BlueGrasss Stakes and Tacitus and Outshine in the Tampa Bay Derby. He is always well backed at the windows so in some regards he is a “money burner” and I see him as a longshot in the race. Another one I will pass on. Country House: Bill Mott’s second entry, this colt has only a maiden win in 6 lifetime starts so why is he in here? He has been beaten by Omaha Beach and Improbable in the Arkansas Derby, By My Standards, Spinoff and Sueno in the Louisiana Derby and War of Will in the Risen star. If he can’t win the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbies how is he going to win the Kentucky Derby? He seems to have trouble getting out of the gate and he lost ground in the stretch of his last two 1-1/8 miles races. Another longshot and another colt I will pass on. Gray Magician: I doubt that Peter Miller will secure his first Derby win with this colt. In fact he might be the longest shot on the board when the gates open. He has one win in 8 career starts, was beaten by Plus Que Parfait in Dubai (you know how I feel about horses going to Dubai to race), was 5th in an optional claiming race in January and does not have the breeding to get the 1-1/4 miles. Again, I will pass. Spinoff: Todd Pletcher’s 2nd entry in the race, this colt has hit the board in all 4 of his career starts. He was 2nd in the Louisiana Derby to By My Standards, after grabbing the lead in mid-stretch. In that race he finished ahead of Sueno and War of Will. His speed figures have improved with every start as the distances have increased. He is a son of Hard Spun, a horse who ran 2nd in the Derby so I think that the distance should not be a problem for him in the Derby. He will likely be double digit odds in the Derby and might be a sneaky price horse in the tri or superfectas. However, I don’t think I will be playing him in the exotics as there are other colts that I prefer over him. Master Fencer: This colt got into the Derby by way of a racing series in Japan. He certainly seems like he can handle the distance as all of his 6 career starts in Japan have been at distances of a mile or longer, including two 1-1/4 mile grass races. All that being said, I have no idea what his competition was in Japan and I will have to pass on this colt. In the event that there is a scratch or two before the derby, these two other colts might get into the race. Bodexpress: He is trained by Gustavo Delgado, a trainer I know nothing about who has only started 36 horses in races this year. Bodexpress is still a maiden after 5 starts. The only reason he might get in the Derby is that he ran 2nd in the Florida Derby at odds of 71-1. His breeding suggests that he will not be able to handle the 1-1/4 miles in the Derby. Three maidens have won the derby, the last one being Brokers Tip in 1933. Eleven maidens have started in the Derby since 1937 and the best finish of those was 8th place. Can’t even fathom betting on him – even with someone else’s money. Signalman: This Ken McPeek trainee has been fairly consistent in his 7 lifetime starts, being in the money in 6 of those races. However, he has been beaten by 7 other Derby entrants in his races, but he has been in the money in 3 races over the CD surface, including a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club and a 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If he gets in, he will likely be at double digit odds, and I might have to give him a long, hard look in the exotics. Now the moment of truth, how will I play the race? It will be tough to leave Omaha Beach out of any discussion as to whom might win the race, but I have concerns about him as stated in my analysis. I have always liked Vekoma, but again, I think that his way of moving through the stretch may not serve him well. I will probably make a win bet on either Tacitus or Game Winner with a slight edge to Game Winner. So, my bets might look something like this - a win on Game Winner, an exacta box using Game Winner, Tacitus, Roadster and Omaha Beach. I will play a 5-colt trifecta box with these four plus Vekoma. OK, I know what you’re thinking, “This is a very chalky group of bets” I know that but the goal is to cash tickets and with this group of colts it is hard to look past the ones I have listed to find a “live longshot”. This is a very competitive race. Any one of 7 or 8 colts could easily win, so as usual I reserve the right to change my mind and make different bets than those listed above. Hopefully everyone will enjoy the event and maybe I will come home a WINNER!!!!!!!!!!
Previews of the Cotillion; Pennsylvania Derby and more
Saturday September 21, 2019 Parx Park Race: 9 (4:34 PM EST Post) Gallant Bob Stakes King Jack won his first two starts sprinting before taking on probable Penn Derby favorite Improbable in his last. This son of Jimmy Creed race exceptionally well while finishing less than three lengths behind that beast. Albeit, he’ll be facing some crack sprinters in this spot, I’m not seeing any horses of Improbable’s caliber here. Narrow margin in an extremely well matched field………………..It’s very clear that the good looking Trophy Chaser is a stone cold sprinter. This son of Twirling Candy was super impressive ripping through hot early fractions in wiring an Allowance field at Gulfstream, stopping the clock in 1:22.4 for seven furlongs last time out. Also note the one and only time he ran at this distance, he won by 15 lengths. 6-1 on the morning line looks generous ………………..Bethlehem Road at 10-1 on the morning line is another who offers some value. Yes, he was beaten by a grand total of 69 lengths in his last three races but you must also note all of those races were at the wrong (route) distances and all vs. much tougher competition. This gelding by Quality Road is at his best at between 5 ½ furlongs and seven furlongs, so this distance should hit him squarely between the eyes. The 3 for 4 record on this oval is also an attention getter…………………..Honorable Mentions: At 7/2 on the morning line, I think quite the contrary about Landeskog as he seems like an underlay to me at that number. Yes, this gelding by Munnings has good speed, and yes, he was impressive beating $40,000 optionals in his last at Del Mar. However, he now ships across the country, stretches out in distance and steps way up in class. I won’t throw him out completely here but on paper he looks like a fringe player……………………..Strong Will is still another who screams “sprinter.” This $775,000 son of Strong Mandate is 3 for 3 in sprint races (with ascending speed figures off each subsequent race) but was buried twice going long. Another who will be taking a sizable step up in class however…………….Get Hammered ran an Allowance field off their feet in his dirt debut at Canterbury last time out. Colt by Stay Thirsty won by 7+ and stopped the clock in a strong 1:15.3 for 6 ½ furlongs. Still another who steps up here though. Race: 10 (5:14 PM EST Post) Cotillion Stakes Guarana is unbeaten in three career starts, over three vastly different surfaces, including winning Grade: 1s in her just second and third career starts. Although she did show some vulnerability in her last (looked tired and veered out in the stretch), she “held sway” late for the win. Trainer Chad Brown then gave this daughter of the wickedly fast Ghostzapper at two month break, but she has recorded an eye popping seven works during that time, highlighted by zipping 5F in 1:00 flat last week. The cut back in distance off her last race should help here as well. Bottom line here is I expect her to win and cement herself as the best three year old in the nation……………………….Serengeti Empress is the 2019 Kentucky Oaks winner who has good speed and draws the rail (for the third time in a row). Obviously she is super talented but she has a habit of running huge or getting beat by a country mile with not much in between. Note she was beaten fair and square (six lengths) by Guarana the only time they met……………………Jaywalk was the dominant 2018 Champion Two Year old Filly but clearly hasn’t come back the same in 2019 as her 1 for 5 record would indicate. It appears she hasn’t physically grown all that much since last year and the other have “caught up” to her so to speak. This roan filly’s last two races were very good so she may be coming back to form, however she’ll have to do a lot better than those two races in this spot to be contender ……………….Honorable Mentions: Horologist is razor sharp right now after rattling off four straight wins including outgunning Jaywalk down the stretch in her last. Versatile filly by Gemologist could better this rating……………….As much as I like Bellafina, a drop dead gorgeous, $800,000 daughter of Quality Road, the fact remains she is 6 for 7 in the state of California but 0 for 3 outside of it. Evidently, she doesn’t “take her racetrack with her” as all three of those defeats were ugly. In this situation, she is hard to play but also hard to go against……………….Jeltrin absolutely whistled in her last, which was also her Parx debut. If you are hunting a long-shot, this $7,000 filly might be for you…………………..Street Band ran very well in her last two, including finishing less than three lengths behind the mega talented Dunbar Road in the prestigious Alabama Stakes last time out. Still another who could outrun this rating. Race: 11 (5:48 PM EST Post) PennsylvaniaDerby With the announcement that Maximum Security will not run in this race (colic), the strapping Improbable, who looked like his old self winning the Shared Belief, getting final three furlongs in :36.4 in his last, takes over as the horse to beat. This chestnut, who physically resembles Justify, has recorded three very strong works since the Shared Belief and should be “tighter” in this spot……looks best…………..Mr. Money has been nothing short of sensational while recording four straight, lopsided wins on three different racetracks in his last four. Good looking son of Goldencents continues to run a hole in the wind in the morning, topped off by ripping 5Fs in lighting :58.1 last week. Steps up in class here but is obviously still a big threat …………………Spun to Run is 3 for 5 at Parx and 0 for 3 everywhere else so it’s safe to say this is his favorite surface. This son of the gorgeous Hard Spun ran off the charts in his last (110 Brisnet speed figure) and finished a respectable third to Maximum Security in the Haskell two back. However, off such a colossal effort last time, you must beware the “bounce” here……….As I said before the Jim Dandy, where he showed speed and tired to finish a non-threatening fifth, War of Will appears to be “over the top”. Having run 10 races in the last 12 months, including all three Triple Crown races, with very little time off in between, it appears to me he’s a touch spent and could use 60-90 days on a farm somewhere. From what I’ve seen from his last two races I will not be playing him and if he beats me, I’ll tip my cap to him. Belmont Park Race: 10 (5:57 PM EST Post) Kelso Handicap I thought Plainsman ran extremely well in his 2019 debut as he was making up ground late vs. the speedy Uncontested in a quickly run $80,000 optional. This $530,000 son of Flatter had won three straight at the end of last year, including the Grade: 3 Discovery, before being shut down, so you know he has some ability. That race, along with the typical Shug McGaughey training method, should have him tighter in this spot and with several early burners in this race, he should get a good pace to run into also. The stretch out in distance should only help as well. Springs a mild upset here……………..Pat On the Back loves this oval as his 10-5-3-2 record would indicate. Although he will be coming into this off several races against New York State Breds, note he ran huge vs. open company (Grade:1 Cigar Mile) in the past. Bottom line here is in taking Plainsman, this guy scares the daylights out of me…………………When Prince Lucky is right, like he was last time out and twice at the beginning of the year in Florida, he has the ability to blow the door off of this field. I’m just kind of wondering which Prince Lucky we will see on Saturday………………….Honorable Mentions: Monongahela, who had run well in seven straight races, had several things going against him when he performed poorly last time out. Off of such a titanic effort in his race/win two back, he may have bounced slightly, while being overmatched in the Grade: 1 Whitney and taking on pro-tem leading older male division leader McKinzie in the process. I expect a bounce back effort from this son of K One King, who has hit the board in 19 of 25 career tries……………….Tale of Silence has won a grand total of one race in the past 26 months but it is worth “mentioning” he is 3 for 6 at Belmont and 0 for 13 everywhere else. …………..Golden Brown is 4 for 5 this year and his BSFs say he could make a little noise in this race. Still another who will be taking a major step up in class here. Charles Town Race: 11 (10:15PM EST Post) Charles Town Oaks If you draw a line through Newly Minted’s failed turf experiment two races back, you’ll find a filly who is 4 for 4 n her career and won those starts by a combined 25 lengths. The Linda Rice trainee has won at multiple distances and over multiple surfaces. Solid choice and perhaps the best bet of the entire day………………..After being off for 8 ½ months, the well named South of France had the quintessential comeback race on August 11. Filly by Quality Road was ridiculously wide throughout that race but was making up ground in deep stretch. Note how she won three straight to end 2018 including the Tepin Stakes at Aqueduct and how her speed figures have climbed steadily since last summer………..looks marginally next best over “homer” Parisian Diva, who absolutely owns this racetrack as her 10-7-2-1 record would indicate. This speedster in 3 for 4 at this distance as well. I’m seeing two drawbacks however. One, it took her :13.3 seconds to get the final furlong last time out (that won’t cut it against these) and she is taking an enormous step up in class as she won’t be facing your typical Charles Town runners here. ……………..Honorable Mentions: La Chancia is a $775,000 daughter of Uncle Mo who appears to have a bright future. She broke her maiden and beat first level Allowance foes in NY in her last two. This appears to be a very good spot for her and the back to back bullet works coming into this signal she is ready. The question is can she handle the step up? Having said that, she’ll be in a few of my exotic plays……………Fashion Faus Pas showed zilch last time out but chased two year old champion filly Jaywalk two starts back and won by a colossal margin three back. Another who, upon paddock and pre-race warm ups inspection, could be on a few of my tickets…………………Taylor’s Spirit looks a little overmatched here but is batting .500 in her career. By: Gerard Apadula Director of Equine Operations and Development Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) 2019- Record: 63-176 = 35% 2018- Record: 107-261= 41% 2017- Record: 92-235 = 39% 2016- Record: 91-229 = 40% 2015- Record: 67-180 = 37% 2014- Record: 29-73 = 40% 2013- Record: 20-59= 34% 2012 -Record: 24-73= 33% 2011 –Record: N/A 2010- Record: 24-74= 33% Little Bets N’ Pieces **** Elite sire Into Mischief will stand for $175,000 with a full book in 2020, Spendthrift Farm announced last Sunday. That’s an increase of $25,000 from the $150,000 he stood for in 2019. “I don’t know if we’ve seen anything quite like Into Mischief, it’s truly remarkable the things he’s doing,” said Ned Toffey, general manager at Spendthrift. “Aside from amounting results on the track and in the sales ring, he’s the consummate professional and loves his job. This year, over 96% of his mares checked in foal. We think Into Mischief is making a positive impact on the breed that will be felt for years to come, particularly with the heart and durability that are signatures of his offspring.” **** Catholic Boy, a Grade: 1 winner on the turf and the dirt, has a slight rear suspensory injury that will prevent him from running in the $300,000 Kelso Handicap at Belmont. Majority owner Robert LaPenta said he is hopeful the colt, who won the 2018 Travers Stakes, can run once more before the Breeders' Cup race. "He should be back in training in a week or two. He's just not 100%, and with the great career he's had, there's no sense in sending him out there," LaPenta said. "We'll look for something soft for him on turf or dirt, and we're hoping we can run him in the Breeders' Cup, but we want to get him back to where he was.
Saturday July 20, 2019 Saratoga Race Course Race: 3 (2:10 PM EST Post) Coaching Club American Oaks Cancelled Monmouth Park Race: 8 (3:29 PM EST Post) Molly Pitcher I’ve been pontificating about Midnight Bisou, and her mega talent, since last year and that seems to be coming to fruition. Off of back to back impressive Grade: 1 wins, and with all due respect to Elate and Monomoy Girl, this big, dark filly is the pro-tem older female division leader and I’m not seeing anything or any horse who will stop her come Saturday………………..Albeit she showed little last time out, throughout her career Pacific Wind has been chasing the likes of Abel Tasman, Marley’s Freedom, Farrell and Come Dancing and has held fairly well. Other than Midnight Bisou, she meets no such rivals in this race…………………Electric Forest has won three of her first five races and seems to have improved through each one, topped off by wiring a Grade: 3 field in her last. Steps up but figures prominent throughout……………………Honorable Mentions:Cosmic Burst is much better than her 0 for 3 record this year would indicate. Consistent filly has hit the board in 12 of 15 career starts…………..Ditto for the speedy Breaking Bread, who has hit the board in 15 of 21 lifetime tries and has been training light out for this. Race: 10 (4:31 PM EST Post) Monmouth Cup After zooming to wins in seven of nine career starts, including the Godolphin Mile in Dubai, Coal Front got hooked in a protracted speed duel in the Met Mile and was overhauled in the stretch by the supremely talented Mitole and equally as talented McKinzie in his last. This $575,000 son of Stay Thirsty takes an enormous drop in class off that effort (from Grade:1 to Grade:3) in this spot, which appears to be exactly what he needs and I’m not expecting any him to have any problems with the distance……………………..Monongahela seems to have a touch of “second-itis” as his 24-6-11-2 career mark would indicate. That said, he clobbered his rivals in the Philip Iselin last time out and ran the best race (speed figure wise) of his career. The Iselin was his Monmouth debut so obviously like the surface………………………Bal Harbour finished fairly close to Monongahela in the Iselin in his last and gets the nod for the show dough based off that fact and his 10 on the board finishes out of 15 career starts……………………Honorable Mentions: Moon Gate Warrior will be making his 47th career start in this spot. This six year old veteran won an astounding nine races last year and is 2 for 2 on this oval….could better this rating…………………….Lemonade Thursday ran a hole in the wind off an almost eight month layoff in his last. So the question is has he comeback from his hiatus a completely different animal and run huge again in this spot? Or does he bounce over the moon? Your call from there………………….I’m still not understanding why the public bets the heck out of War Story just about every time he runs. Perhaps they will back off of him now after a 50 length drubbing in his last. Race: 12 (5:49 PM EST Post) Haskell Invitational If Mucho Gusto duplicates his race in the Affirmed Stakes, where he laid off the early pace, took command at the quarter pole and held sway all the way to the wire, in this spot he probably wins. Trainer Bob Baffert tipped his hand earlier this week by saying that the key for this $625,000 son of Mucho Macho Man was to “relax early.” With a plethora of early speed signed up in this race, that’s the exact tactics it will take to win. Moreover, he is three for four this year with a legitimate excuse (set scorching early fractions and understandably tired late) in his lone defeat. Although eight to eight and half furlongs is this colt’s wheelhouse, I’m not worried about the distance for him. Lastly, for this horse, who sports a 7-5-1-1 career mark, is his works. It looks like Baffert has him “revved up” for this……………………Yes, Maximum Security, who of course won the Kentucky Derby but was controversially DQ-ed, had two legitimate excuses while going down in flames as the 1/20 favorite in the Pegasus last time out. This drop dead gorgeous colt by New Year’s Day broke poorly and ripped an opening half mile in :46.4. But truth be told, he did not look like the same dominant colt we saw in the Florida Derby and in the Kentucky Derby. In fact, all reports indicate he was “lackluster” for several weeks after the Derby and it showed in the Pegasus. He was in deep water leaving the 5/16ths pole as I notice Luis Saez was “asking” him at that point and not getting too much of a response. Is it possible he is “over the top”? Did he just have a bad day? Or are the other three year olds catching up to him? I’m not sure….but I think this race will tell the tale. There was no how, no way he should have lost the Pegasus but he did. I’m not worried about the slow works leading up to this, after all a turtle could have outworked him before the Derby yet he still won (kind of). Listen, if he beats me….he beats me….I’m just having a hard time backing him after what I’ve seen (and heard) since his Derby win…………………….King for a Day has certainly improved from last year. Good looking colt by Uncle Mo opened the year with an authoritative win in a restricted Stakes race at Pimlico and then conquered Maximum Security in the aforementioned Pegasus Stakes to improve to 2 for 2 in 2019. Versatile colt from the Todd Pletcher barn has speed (if necessary) and draws the rail, which in turn should (tactically) make him prominent throughout. Love the fact he has a race/win over this track as well…………………Honorable Mentions: Joevia set a good, solid pace in the Belmont Stakes and, although being overtaken at the eighth pole, he held very well for third, beaten by less than two length in the end. This son of Shanghai Bobby should come out running once again in this spot. I love the cut back in distance as well as the supersonic work last week (5F- :58.2)…..could better this rating………………Couple of long shots to consider include Everfast, who although is just 1 for 12 in his career, does sometimes close like a runaway freight train (see the Preakness Stakes where he came from some 22 lengths behind to grab second behind War of Will at 29-1), and Spun to Run, who although is taking a huge step up class, won his last two very impressively. Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Race: 4 (6:30 PM EST Post) San Diego Handicap I’m not sure who will be a bigger favorite in their respective races Midnight Bisou in the Molly Pitcher or Catalina Cruiser here as this hulking chestnut absolutely lays over this field. After his BC Dirt Mile debacle to end 2018, this son of Union Rags could NOT have looked any better while taking down the True North at Belmont on June 7. The now five year old tracked sizzling fractions, surged to the lead in deep stretch and won by a half length while stopping the clock is swift 1:14.4 for 6 1/2 furlongs. He has worked well since and returns to Del Mar where he is 2 for 2……………………..Dr Dorr seems to have a lost a step or two from early last year as, after rattling off three straight impressive wins, he’s gone 0 for 6 since. The 0 for 4 on this oval is no confidence builder either but he still looks the best of the rest………………………Draft Pick, a $450,000 son of Candy Ride, seems to be getting better with age. This handsome colt is 3-2-0 in his last five races and 10-3-2-2 overall in his career…………………………Core Beliefs, who showed little in his last, has a habit of popping a big race now and again. By: Gerard Apadula Director of Equine Operations and Development Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) 2019- Record: 43-124 = 35% 2018- Record: 107-261= 41% 2017- Record: 92-235 = 39% 2016- Record: 91-229 = 40% 2015- Record: 67-180 = 37% 2014- Record: 29-73 = 40% 2013- Record: 20-59= 34% 2012 -Record: 24-73= 33% 2011 –Record: N/A 2010- Record: 24-74= 33% Little Bets N’ Pieces **** Osare, a stakes-winning half sister to Arrogate (by Medaglia d’Oro) trained by Jonathan Thomas, has been retired following a poor effort in the July 6 Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes at Delaware Park. "She chased a fast pace at Delaware," Thomas said. "She's already a stakes winner, but with her pedigree, you want to give her a chance to be Graded Stakes placed. We're going to retire her to be a broodmare”. "She went back to Bridlewood, and they have a lot of time until the breeding season to decide who she will be bred to. With her pedigree and the fact that she is a stakes winner, there's nothing but upside." Thomas also said Catholic Boy, a Grade 1 winner on turf and dirt, will ship to Saratoga at the end of the month with the $750,000 Woodward Stakes, slated for Aug. 31, as his next start. "I'll bring him up here in a week or two," said Thomas. "I'm just letting him get over his race down there. He came out of it OK for the most part. The Woodward is still the primary target." ****1993 Kentucky Derby and Travers winner Sea Hero died earlier this week in Turkey. At 29 years of age, he was the oldest living Kentucky Derby winner. Trained by Mack Miller, Sea Hero broke his maiden in his fourth try on the grass as a two year old, but won the 1992 Champagne Stakes before closing the year with a seventh behind Gilded Time in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Defeated in his first three outings in this three year old year, Sea Hero upset favored Prairie Bayou in the Derby but failed miserably in the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, finishing fifth and seventh, respectively. Unplaced in the Jim Dandy Stakes, he did bounced back to take the Midsummer Derby by two lengths. I’m not sure why but they erected a life-size bronze statue of him in the Saratoga paddock. Originally retired to Lane’s End, Sea Hero was responsible for 13 U.S. black-type winners. Sea Hero was sold for $700,000 at the 1999 Keeneland November Sale and continued his stud career in Turkey before being pensioned from stud duties in 2015. **** Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress recorded her first work on the Saratoga main track following the renovation break July 14, going four furlongs in :47.3. Trainer Tom Amoss was pleased with the work and is still pointing the dark bay filly toward the Aug. 3 Test Stakes. "Serengeti Empress had a very good workout today," Amoss said. "It was her first time over the Saratoga course. We went right after the break, which is a very busy time, and there was a lot of traffic throughout her workout. She handled it fine, and she was a pro when it comes to that, so I was very happy with how she did." Amoss was satisfied with how Serengeti Empress was moving over the Saratoga course. "She seems to be herself, and that's good news," Amoss said. "I think the most important thing to point out, and certainly what I observed, was how quiet the rider was on her during the last portion of the work and how well she was moving over the racetrack. We'll see her breeze again before the Test, maybe twice, and we'll take it from there."
I have a joke about how now whenever I smoke pot I have to write a book report. It's not very funny yet, but you get the point. I try to be a little more observational, but the hardest part is probably doing the videos. They ask me to do two 45 second Tout's to accompany the articles, something I'm not very good at yet. Let the writers write!
Edit: I'm a bad writer. Have fun with that one, too.
When I first started at The Releaf Center there was a strain called Herojuana we got from a caregiver that was a real one-hitter quitter. We didn't know that at the time. Probably the closest I've gotten to visually hallucinating with a strain. Amazing, intense body high with tons of mental stimulation. Came from a caregiver, never saw it again.
I haven't received any hate mail yet, but my editors might be keeping it in a secret bag somewhere to preserve my sanity. Overall, I think when the first big tax numbers came in, people were stoked. That money goes to school construction, keeping the kids off of drugs, and keeping stoned drivers off the roads.
My stuff stays online for the moment, not in the paper itself, but my colleague Ricardo Baca has said in the past that the backlash to print pieces wasn't nearly as big as they had expected. So hopefully that means I'll be getting a column next to Dear Abby.
Tons of them. I worry about stoned drivers, although drunk drivers are still a massive problem around the country but no one bats an eye at booze. (insert Joker meme)
Colorado needs to regulate shops well, as we're the testing ground for all of this. Make sure that money (and pot) aren't flowing out the back door. The MED (Marijuana Enforcement Division) has their hands full.
Yes, that is totally a thing you can do. Some shops will limit how much out-of-staters can buy or charge you more, so do your research in advance and call around. Do you like to sleep and feel incapacitated? Try some indica! Want to be energetic/feel like strangers can read your thoughts you're so paranoid? Try some sativa! Everyone has a different experience, so whatever you try, try it in moderation.
Can everyone tweet this to Doug Benson? We've smoked after a show before but he's a busy guy. He'll be out here for Mother's Day and want him on MY podcast. Other than Doug, nope. What up, Here_Comes_The_King?
There are companies trying. Take Dixie Elixirs for example. The CEO has openly said he wants to be the Coca Cola of cannabis and sell to a multinational corporation. I don't think people want an industrially grown marijuana product. No matter what, I think you'll continue to see "artisan" pot grown, similar to craft beers.
When the industry popped up, there were tons of magazines that saw dollar signs. They needed content, so I started submitting. It helps when you live in a state with a medical marijuana program. I can't imagine trying to do this in Arkansas.
I'm a writer and comedian, so I'm not sure I have many career opportunities. Honestly, I'm hoping we get to a point where casual marijuana use isn't a big deal in society. Or at least we get to where online dating is. Your friend can do it and you just make snarky comments behind their back.
Oh lord. It was after debate practice with some friends out of a pop can. We drove around and listened to Ben Folds Five and I laughed like a madman. I wish I remembered more, but I'm turning into more and more of a cliche in my old age. Those were the days.
Cost has skyrocketed. Jesus, I paid over $20 for a GRAM at a rec shop last week. Medical shops are running better deals than ever. (Note to self: do more medical shopping)
Quality wise, I haven't noticed any change. People have been growing here for years, so that part of the equation is fairly static. Of course, there are shops rushing herb to the store to keep up with demand, so the curing isn't always as great as you'd like. Like if there was a tomato shortage, so the store only had green tomatoes and you were like "Man, shouldn't these be red?"
That's why I'm here! You should be able to recognize most strains by sight and smell. It's like that field guide to birds your grandparents are always reading. Breeders are really passionate about this, because strains can "dilute" and then people get pissy. "You haven't had Swerve's REAL Tahoe OG, bro!" and so forth.
Definitely don't take notes from California. Their system is a mess. Colorado's tax rates are pretty high, but that was to be expected with being one of the first. Let's see how well they control the shops in place before everyone says "This is the model!" and moves forward. But on a macro level, yeah, legalize it.
I'm a utility smoker, so they both have their place. Indicas are my sleep aid and big pain reliever, so I use them a lot less. Sativas are great when I want to work on anything creative like new jokes or an article or Hemp Box stuff, so I'd say I usually have them on deck. Especially haze strains.
I rarely get the munchies anymore, but some people have a huge struggle with what I call "grazing". Try sativas! Strains like Durban Poison, Haze of all types, or a Maui Wowie/Island Sweet Skunk are more active. Some people find that sativas give them munchies, so if that's the case, try indicas! It's brilliant, this pot system we have here.
Growers are the worst people to talk about the effects of pot with, best about how to grow it. That's why I have a job. There are so many different effects that marijuana can have, but let's talk about hunger, for example. There's cannabis indica, which I find gives me munchies. Much less so with cannabis sativa. You know THC, which gets you high? There's also THCV, which is an appetite suppressant. They're working on breeding for it.
Thanks - that's cool to hear and I'm proud to be a part of what CNBC did. Would recommend everyone check it out.
Do what people did here: start an industry group. It gives you clout with local pols and shows leadership. Then, when rulemaking comes around, you usually have a seat at the table. If you're also a good person (because why wouldn't you be?!) then get involved with patient advocacy. There are great groups out there like ASA, for example, that can assist you. Be the change and all that good stuff.
Great question. Growing and curing play such a huge part, as an expert cultivator can do amazing things with pretty shit genetics. It's harder for a novice to grow something great from a good genetic line. For that reason, and that reason alone, I'll go with GROWN!
Super Lemon Haze. When it's done correctly, it's euphoria and energy and creativity in a bowl. I'm not a big "couch lock" get high and play video games guy, so I'm looking for something that is motivational. Haze almost always fits the bill.
They already are. It's just a question of if they find pot more acceptable than riverboat gambling or whatever other sin tax they're looking at. Medical marijuana is moving forward in a lot of states right now, which is the gateway drug to legalization..
DenverNick pretty much nailed it. There are absolutely still black market dealers, dispensary mules, and the like. People with red cards get asked ALL THE TIME to go grab pot for friends. Some people are just paranoid about stepping into a dispensary on camera. Dealers are still doing well, but they've had to adapt. I truly believe they'll be all but phased out in the near future, because prices will come down and growing is a pain in the ass.
I'd be shocked if the testing game doesn't move toward current impairment. Right now, you'll fail a test if you've smoked as recently as a month ago (usually). I think employers care more if people are showing up high than if they like to get high in their free time. But yes, they clearly discriminate against marijuana.
Well, I don't necessarily think that "a lot of criticism" is fair, but there is a difference between how things are grown, where the genetics came from, etc. The biggest thing is helping people identify what they smoke, which is where I come in and getting a large group of people together is key. I wouldn't say that in a "batch" (I'm going to assume that means harvest) there's much of any difference. Quality and consistency systems? None. The state lets people grow what they grow and the market determines if the pot you grow sucks.
God, I'm terrible at predictions. Sure, there will be more legalization. I think that's inevitable at this point. We won't move backwards. And yes, they'll be a "Budweiser" who comes in, but there's always going to be interest in the "microbrews" of pot. It's just not a great plant for growing on an industrial scale and keeping the connoisseur quality. Hemp will dwarf it all, though. Hemp is the future.
I think people lend a little too much credence to the tolerance issue. I'm not a wake-and-bake, smoke-weed-erry-day guy, so it hasn't been a problem so far. I should probably work out more, but it is what it is.
Don't be, it's not as glamorous as I'm sure I make it seem. The jobs are the same as when medical was here. Mostly retail and cultivation jobs, which again, people tend to romanticize. People always ask me about moving out here and working in the industry. Want to sit in a chair and trim weed for 8 hours for minimum wage pay? Go get licensed by the state and you've got a job!
Glass or a vaporizer, as papers can alter the flavor a lot. Plus, they're easier to use. I smoked out of a blunt for one review and a commenter wanted my head for it. Also, I hate reading the comments section.
I'm a freelancer, so the whole corporate setting is really my living room. The process was great. I submitted a resume and writing samples, then did a review for them which ultimately ended up on the site. It helped, I imagine, that I had written a ton of reviews previous to my gig at the Post.
At times I'm both. I think people tend to react based on what they see. Colorado hasn't burned to the ground, there aren't stoned drivers mowing over infants, so far, so good. Taxes will also play a big part, but mostly, people just want to know that someone else did it first and lived to tell about it.
Growing is done by registered and licensed facilities, so there isn't really an opportunity for hobbyists to break into the market. Back in the day that was different, as caregivers (people who grew for a limited number of patients) could sell to dispensaries and we'd see great bud coming in from off the street.
Gorgeous day! Why are we indoors? I like Good Chem in Cap Hill, as they usually have a good selection and well grown pot. Green Man has a cup under their belt and nice stuff, as well. The biggest things you want to look/smell for: good trichome coverage (the stuff that makes it look frosty) and a distinct smell. If the jars smell the same, smell like hay, or kind of like a basement, stay away. There are a lot of review sites like Leafly and Weedmaps that can help, too. Read the comments, especially the recent ones, to get a feel for what you're walking in to.
I probably should, but I always feel guilty because people really need that strain and they should be the ones getting it. But it's just a gram or two, so does it really matter? I don't know. Maybe that'll be my next review.
I wish, but sadly, no. We have this place called "the south" and they don't take kindly to us smoking the Devil's lettuce. Also, old people. It's funny, I think NORML released this graph that shows as old people die, pot does better and better in polling. Don't get me wrong, though. I love my grandparents.
Usually I can get the genetics of a random strain without being told what it is. A friend came over the other day and I nailed it on his Tangerine Diesel, but it's also pretty easy to tell. With all the different OG Kush lines, that's harder.
I actually co-host a podcast called Whiskey and Cigarettes with a guy named Zac (and another guy named Jake - it's complicated) that reviews other podcasts, so I'll make sure to check you guys out. I always prefer to do podcasts in person, but let's talk.
I think what people aren't talking about is how companies have looked the other way for a while. A lot of tech firms are here, we're kind of a start-up hub, so they're looking for young talent that probably enjoys to smoke some pot now and then. I think what they're really testing for is meth/cocaine/etc. Nothing in Amendment 64 protects people who are high at work, correct.
I haven't, but there is a case going through the courts still (I believe) about a Dish Network employee who needed it medically. Companies have protection, though, and can fire anyone they want. His case being medical changes the discussion. If you just smoke pot because you want to, you're screwed. We're a right to work state, as well.
Not a lawyer but pretty sure no. Drug charges suck, but at least it's not a felony? Might make a great conversation piece if your new boss is a stoner, too? Is any of this making you feel better? Someone give this man some gold.
I have a joke about that. A lot of people tell me it was probably my dream job when I was 16. When I was 16, I thought I could be a lawyer. A lawyer with his own car.
I've probably lost a few Facebook friends, but my family is supportive and I've smoked pot for years, so most people just accept it. As for states, it's anyone's guess. I wouldn't be surprised if a state that a lot of people wouldn't bet on... say Iowa... jumps on board.
We used to make up names for strains we'd get off the street from caregivers. Outgoing Panda was my favorite. There was a strain (and it's probably still out there) that was a cross of The White and Master Kush. They unfortunately called it White Master. I also reviewed a strain called Kuchi that describes a region but probably shouldn't.
From my understanding, California is kind of a free-for-all politically. Lots of cities making their own decisions and lack of regulation from the state government. One of the big reasons the feds stay out of Colorado (for the most part) is that we heavily regulate who can be in the business and where their pot goes. "Seed to sale" tracking is the goal. Cali is nowhere near that. But I'm in Colorado so that could all be wrong.
It's all about what you want out of the experience. At the end of the day, we're self-medicating. Generally, though? Solid genetics that were grown with care and then left to cure properly, well flushed with no mites/mold/other gross stuff.
Hey FoCo Gibbs! Prices will absolutely come down, but I hear you. The Garden City shop, from my understanding, has a pretty unique situation so they're making their money while they can. We're seeing the market play out (supply v demand) in real time and I think that's fascinating. With there being ~50 recreational shops in the Denver metro, prices are already starting to fall.
I do vape and use my bubbler on occasion, but I've always smoked out of straight glass and it's worked well so far. Flavor-wise, there's some difference, but usually the taste presents itself either way. Great observation, though.
Infusions are less about the type of herb and more about the method you use to get it in there. Avoid something with a ton of terpenes that will change the flavor, unless you want Sour Diesel flavored brownies. Smoking? Depends on what you're looking for. Oils are great if they're made correctly. I hate smoking residual solvents.
BUSR is the best place you can place your bet on the Breeders' Cup.Fixed price odds are available. Bet the Classic and get $10 in Casino chips. Breeders' Cup Odds are live and open for betting.. Bet on the fastest horses from all over the world as they meet in Santa Anita, Arcadia, California this year to compete in the Breeders' Cup Races. With $25 million in prize money, it's the richest Breeders' Cup. The Breeders' Cup in Profile. The Breeders’ Cup is a two-day meeting in November that was created in 1984, as a year-end competition for North American racing, but it has been built into a worldwide event, attracting runners from various continents, especially Europe.. The primary rotation of sites used for the Breeders’ Cup includes Belmont Park in New York, Churchill Downs 2013 Breeders' Cup Turf Predictions and Betting Odds by Trevor Whenham - 10/29/2013 It’s a big field for the grueling mile and a half challenge of the Breeders’ Cup Turf this year. Day two of the Breeders’ Cup kicks off at 3:05 ET with the $2 million Juvenile Fillies and will end Saturday night with the $5 million Classic, with a post time of 8:35 ET. While the Breeders’ Cup was initially devised to be a traveling show, moving from track to track each year to give venues all across the country a chance to host racing’s premier event, it has been held in either California or Kentucky for the past 12 years, primarily at Santa Anita Park and Churchill Downs.
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