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Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020

We would rather be ruined than changed.
-W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety
This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757
Secured physical gold – $18 913
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479
Bitcoin – $148 990
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484
Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under)
Global shares – 22.0%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under)
Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.7%
International bonds – 9.4%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 7.7%
Bitcoin – 8.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March.
The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year.
[Chart]
The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017.
[Chart]
There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf).
A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains.
As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here.
Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
A moving azimuth: falling spending continues
Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month.
[Chart]
The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending.
This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month.
[Chart]
There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile.
Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations.
Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions
Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June.
These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey.
This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably.
A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades.
I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks.
Developing new navigation tools
Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns.
This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets.
In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years.
Mapping the distribution estimates
The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come.
[Chart]
Some observations on these findings can be made.
The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on.
Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome.
Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations.
Central estimates of the line of position
This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range.
I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence.
My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure.
None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data.
These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years.
As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive.
Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9%
Summary
The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions.
Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well.
Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias.
This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface.
Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half.
With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real.
Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change?
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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Staking in Ethereum 2.0: when will it appear and how much can you earn on it?

Staking in Ethereum 2.0: when will it appear and how much can you earn on it?

Staking in Ethereum 2.0: when will it appear and how much can you earn on it?

Why coin staking will be added in Ethereum 2.0

A brief educational program for those who do not follow the update of the project of Vitalik Buterin. Ethereum has long been in need of updating, and the main problem of the network is scalability: the blockchain is overloaded, transactions are slowing down, and the cost of “gas” (transaction fees) is growing. If you do not update the consensus algorithm, then the network will someday cease to be operational. To avoid this, developers have been working for several years on moving the network from the PoW algorithm to state 2.0, running on PoS. This should make the network more scalable, faster and cheaper. In December last year, the first upgrade phase, Istanbul, was implemented in the network, and in April of this year, the Topaz test network with the possibility of staking was launched - the first users already earned 1%. In the PoS algorithm that Ethereum switches to, there is no mining, and validation occurs due to the delegation of user network coins to the masternodes. For the duration of the delegation, these coins are frozen, and for providing their funds for block validation, users receive a portion of the reward. This is staking - such a crypto-analogue of a bank deposit. There are several types of staking: with income from dividends or masternodes, but not the device’s power, as in PoW algorithms, but the number of miner coins is important in all of them. The more coins, the higher the income. For crypto investors, staking is an opportunity to receive passive income from blocked coins. It is assumed that the launch of staking:
  • Will make ETH mining more affordable, but less resource intensive;
  • Will make the network more secure and secure - attacks will become too expensive;
  • Will create an entirely new sector of steak infrastructure around the platform;
  • Provides increased scalability, which will create the opportunity for wider implementation of DeFi protocols;
  • And, most importantly, it will show that Ethereum is a developing project.

The first payments to stakeholders will be one to two years after the launch of the update

The minimum validator steak will be 32 ETN (≈$6092 for today). This is the minimum number of coins that an ETH holder must freeze in order to qualify for payments. Another prerequisite is not to disconnect your wallet from the network. If the user disconnects and goes into automatic mode, he loses his daily income. If at some point the steak drops below 16 ETH, the user will be deprived of the right to be a validator. The Ethereum network has to go through many more important stages before coin holders can make money on its storage. Collin Myers, the leader of the product strategy at the startup of the Ethereum developer ConsenSys, said that the genesis block of the new network will not be mined until the total amount of frozen funds reaches 524,000 ETN ($99.76 million at the time of publication). So many coins should be kept by 16,375 validators with a minimum deposit of 32 ETN. Until this moment, none of them will receive a percentage profit. Myers noted that this event is not tied to a clear time and depends on the activity of the community. All validators will have to freeze a rather significant amount for an indefinite period in the new network without confidence in the growth of the coin rate. It’s hard to say how many people there are. The developers believe that it will take 12−18 or even 24 months. According to the latest ConsenSys Codefi report, more than 65% of the 300 ETH owners surveyed plan to use the staking opportunity. This sample, of course, is not representative, but it can be assumed that most major coin holders will still be willing to take a chance.

How much can you earn on Ethereum staking

Developers have been arguing for a long time about what profitability should be among the validators of the Ethereum 2.0 network. The economic model of the network maintains an inflation rate below 1% and dynamically adjusts the reward scale for validators. The difficulty is not to overpay, but not to pay too little. Profitability will be variable, as it depends on the number and size of steaks, as well as other parameters. The fewer frozen coins and validators, the higher the yield, and vice versa. This is an easy way to motivate users to freeze ETN. According to the October calculations of Collin Myers, after the launch of Ethereum 2.0, validators will be able to receive from 4.6% to 10.3% per annum as a reward for their steak. At the summit, he clarified that the first time after the launch of the Genesis block, it can even reach 20.3%. But as the number of steaks grows, profitability will decline. So, with five million steaks, it drops to about 6.6%. The above numbers are not net returns. They do not include equipment and electricity costs. According to Myers, after the Genesis block, the costs of maintaining the validator node will be about 4.75% of the remuneration. They will continue to increase as the number of blocked coins increases, and with a five millionth steak, they will grow to about 14.7%. Myers emphasized that profitability will be higher for those who will work on their own equipment, rather than relying on cloud services. The latter, according to his calculations, at current prices can bring a loss of up to minus 15% per year. This, he believes, promotes true decentralization. At the end of April, Vitalik Buterin said that validators will be able to earn 5% per annum with a minimum stake of 32 ETH - 1.6 ETH per year, or $ 304 at the time of publication. However, given the cost of freezing funds, the real return will be at 0.8%.

How to calculate profitability from ETN staking

The easiest way to calculate the estimated return for Ethereum staking is to use a special calculator. For example, from the online services EthereumPrice or Stakingrewards. The service takes into account the latest indicators of network profitability, as well as additional characteristics: the time of operation of a node in the network, the price of a coin, the share of blocked ETNs and so on. Depending on these values, the profit of the validator can vary greatly. For example, you block 32 ETNs at today's coin price - $190, 1% of the coins are blocked, and the node works 99% of the time. According to the EthereumPrice calculator, in this case your yield will be 14.25% per annum, or 4.56 ETH.
Validator earnings from the example above for 10 years according to EthereumPrice.
If to change the data, you have the same steak, but the proportion of blocked coins is 10%. Now your annual yield is only 4.51%, or 1.44 ETH.
Validator earnings from the second example over 10 years according to EthereumPrice.
It is important that this is profitability excluding expenses. Real returns will be significantly lower and in the second case may be negative. In addition, you must consider the fluctuation of the course. Even with a yield of 14% per annum in ETN, dollar-denominated returns may be negative in a bear market.

When will the transition to Ethereum 2.0 start

Ben Edgington from Teku, the operator of Ethereum 2.0, at the last summit said that the transition to PoS could be launched in July this year. These deadlines, if there are no new delays, were also mentioned by experts of the BitMEX crypto exchange in their recent report on the transition of the Ethereum ecosystem to stage 2.0. However, on May 12, Vitalik Buterin denied the possibility of launching Ethereum 2.0 in July. The network is not yet ready and is unlikely to be launched before the end of the year. July 30 marks the 5th anniversary of the launch of Ethereum. Unfortunately, it seems that it will not be possible to start the update for the anniversary again. Full deployment of updates will consist of several stages. Phase 0. Beacon chain. The "zero" phase, which can be launched in July this year. In fact, it will only be a network test and PoS testing without economic activity, but it will use new ETN coins and the possibility of staking will appear. The "zero" phase will test the first layer of Ethereum 2.0 architecture - Lighthouse. This is the Ethereum 2.0 client in Rust, developed back in 2018. Phase 1. Sharding - rejection of full nodes in favor of load balancing between all network nodes (shards). This should increase network bandwidth and solve the scalability problem. This is the first full phase of Ethereum 2.0. It will initially be deployed with 64 shards. It is because of sharding that the transition of a network to a new state is so complicated - existing smart contracts cannot be transferred to a new network. Therefore, at first, perhaps several years, both networks will exist simultaneously. Phase 2. State execution. In this phase, various applications will work, and it will be possible to conclude smart contracts. This is a full-fledged working Ethereum 2.0 network. After the second phase, two networks will work in parallel - Ethereum and Ethereum 2.0. Coin holders will be able to transfer ETN from the first to the second without the ability to transfer them back. To stimulate network support, coin emissions in both networks will increase until they merge. Read more about the phases of transition to state 2.0 in the aforementioned BitMEX report.

How the upgrade to Ethereum 2.0 will affect the staking market and coin price

The transition of the second largest coin to PoS will dramatically increase the stake in the market. The deposit in 32 ETH is too large for most users. Therefore, we should expect an increase in offers for staking from the exchanges. So, the launch of such a service in November was announced by the largest Swiss crypto exchange Bitcoin Suisse. She will not have a minimum deposit, and the commission will be 15%. According to October estimates by Binance Research analysts, the transition of Ethereum to stage 2.0 can double the price of a coin and the stake of staking in the market, and it will also make ETH the most popular currency on the PoS algorithm. Adam Cochran, partner at MetaCartel Ventures DAO and developer of DuckDuckGo, argued in his blog that Ethereum's transition to state 2.0 would be the “biggest event” of the cryptocurrency market. He believes that a 3–5% return will attract the capital of large investors, and fear of lost profit (FOMO) among retail investors will push them to actively buy coins. The planned coin burning mechanism for each transaction will reduce the potential oversupply. However, BitMEX experts in the report mentioned above believe that updating the network will not be as important an event as it seems to many, and will not have a significant impact on the coin rate and the staking market. Initially, this will be more likely to test the PoS system, rather than a full-fledged network. There will be no economic activity and smart contracts, and interest for a steak will not be paid immediately. Therefore, most of the economic activity will continue to be concluded in the original Ethereum network, which will work in parallel with the new one. Analysts of the exchange emphasized that due to the addition of staking, the first time (short, in their opinion) a large number of ETNs will be blocked on the network. Most likely, this will limit the supply of coins and lead to higher prices. However, this can also release some of the ETNs blocked in smart contracts, and then the price will not rise. Moreover, the authors of the document are not sure that the demand for coins will be long-term and stable. For this to happen, PoS and sharding must prove that they work stably and provide the benefits for which the update was started. But, if this happens, the network is waiting for a wave of coins from the developers of smart contracts and DeFi protocols. In any case, quick changes should not be expected. A full transition to Ethereum 2.0 will take years and won’t be smooth - network failures are inevitable. We also believe that we should not rely on Ethereum staking as another panacea for all the problems of the coin and the market. Most likely, the transition of the network to PoS will not have a significant impact on the staking market, but may positively affect the price of the coin. However, relying on the ETN rally in anticipation of this is too optimistic.
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Crypto-Currency: A Guide to Common Tax Situations

STATUS: Majority of questions have been answered. If yours got missed, please feel free to post it again.
Introduction
All,
Based on the rapid increase in popularity and price of bitcoin and other crypto currencies (particularly over the past year), I expect that lots of people have questions about how crypto currency will impact their taxes. This thread attempts to address several common issues. I'm posting similar versions of it here, in several major crypto subs, and eventually in the weekly "tax help" threads personalfinance runs.
I'd like to thank the /personalfinance mod team and the /tax community for their help with this thread and especially for reading earlier versions and offering several valuable suggestions/corrections.
This thread is NOT an endorsement of crypto currency as an investing strategy. There is a time and a place to debate the appropriateness of crypto as part of a diversified portfolio - but that time is not now and that place is not here. If you are interested in the general consensus of this sub on investing, I would urge you to consult the wiki while keeping in mind the general flowchart outlining basic steps to get your finances in order.
Finally, please note that this thread attempts to provide information about your tax obligations as defined by United States law (and interpreted by the IRS under the direction of the Treasury Department). I understand that a certain portion of the crypto community tends to view crypto as "tax free" due to the (actual and perceived) difficulty for the IRS to "know" about the transactions involved. I will not discuss unlawfully concealing crypto gains here nor will I suggest illegal tax avoidance activities.
The Basics
This section is best for people that don't understand much about taxes. It covers some very basic tax principles. It also assumes that all you did during the year was buy/sell a single crypto currency.
Fundamentally, the IRS treats crypto not as money, but as an asset (investment). While there are a few specific "twists" when it comes to crypto, when in doubt replace the word "crypto" with the word "stock" and you will get a pretty good idea how you should report and pay tax on crypto.
The first thing you should know is that the majority of this discussion applies to the taxes you are currently working on (2017 taxes). The tax bill that just passed applies to 2018 taxes (with a few very tiny exceptions), which most people will file in early 2019.
In general, you don't have to report or pay taxes on crypto currency holdings until you "cash out" all or part of your holdings. For now, I'm going to assume that you cash out by selling them for USD; however, other forms of cashing out will be covered later.
When you sell crypto, you report the difference between your basis (purchase price) and proceeds (sale price) on Schedule D. Your purchase price is commonly referred to as your basis; while the two terms don't mean exactly the same thing, they are pretty close to one another (in particular, there are three two ways to calculate your basis - your average cost, a first-in, first-out method, and a "specific identification" method. See more about these here and here). EDIT - you may not use average cost method with crypto - see here. If you sell at a gain, this gain increases your tax liability; if you sell at a loss, this loss decreases your tax liability (in most cases). If you sell multiple times during the year, you report each transaction separately (bad news if you trade often) but get to lump all your gains/losses together when determining how the trades impact your income.
One important thing to remember is that there are two different types of gains/losses from investments - short term gains (if you held an asset for one year or less) and long term gains (over one year; i.e. one year and one day). Short term gains are taxed at your marginal income rate (basically, just like if you had earned that money at a job) while long term gains are taxed at lower rates.
For most people, long term capital gains are taxed at 15%. However, if you are in the 10% or 15% tax bracket, congrats - your gains (up to the maximum amount of "unused space" in your bracket) are tax free! If you are in the 25%, 28%, 33%, or 35% bracket, long term gains are taxed at 15%. If you are in the 39.6% bracket, long term gains are taxed at 20%. Additionally, there is an "extra" 3.8% tax that applies to gains for those above $200,000/$250,000 (single/married). The exact computation of this tax is a little complicated, but if you are close to the $200,000 level, just know that it exists.
Finally, you should know that I'm assuming that you should treat your crypto gains/losses as investment gains/losses. I'm sure some people will try and argue that they are really "day traders" of crypto and trade as a full time job. While this is possible, the vast majority of people don't qualify for this status and you should really think several times before deciding you want to try that approach on the IRS.
"Cashing Out" - Trading Crypto for Goods/Services
I realize that not everyone that "cashes out" of crypto does so by selling it for USD. In fact, I understand that some in the crypto community view the necessity of cashing out itself as a type of myth. In this section, I discuss what happens if you trade your crypto for basically anything that isn't cash (minor sidenote - see next section for a special discussion on trading crypto for crypto; i.e. buying altcoins with crypto).
The IRS views trading crypto for something of value as a type of bartering that must be included in income. From the IRS's perspective, it doesn't matter if you sold crypto for cash and bought a car with that cash or if you just traded crypto directly for the car - in both cases, the IRS views you as having sold your crypto. This approach isn't unique to crypto - it works the same way if you trade stock for something.
This means that if you do trade your crypto for "stuff", you have to report every exchange as a sale of your crypto and calculate the gain/loss on that sale, just as if you had sold the crypto for cash.
Finally, there is one important exception to this rule. If you give your crypto away to charity (one recognized by the IRS; like a 501(c)(3) organization), the IRS doesn't make you report/pay any capital gains on the transaction. Additionally, you still get to deduct the value of your donation on the date it was made. Now, from a "selfish" point of view, you will always end up with more money if you sell the crypto, pay the tax, and keep the rest. But, if you are going to make a donation anyway, especially a large one, giving crypto where you have a big unrealized/untaxed gain is a very efficient way of doing so.
"Alt Coins" - Buying Crypto with Crypto
The previous section discusses what happens when you trade crypto for stuff. However, one thing that surprises many people is that trading crypto for crypto is also a taxable event, just like trading crypto for a car. Whether you agree with this position or not, it makes a lot of sense once you realize that the IRS doesn't view crypto as money, but instead as an asset. So to the IRS, trading bitcoin for ripple isn't like trading dollars for euros, but it is instead like trading shares of Apple stock for shares of Tesla stock.
Practically, what this means is that if you trade one crypto for another crypto (say BTC for XRP just to illustrate the point), the IRS views you as doing the following:
  • Selling for cash the amount of BTC you actually traded for XRP.
  • Owing capital gains/losses on the BTC based on its selling price (the fair market value at the moment of the exchange) and your purchase price (basis).
  • Buying a new investment (XRP) with a cost basis equal to the amount the BTC was worth when you exchanged them.
This means that if you "time" your trade wrong and the value of XRP goes down after you make the exchange, you still owe tax on your BTC gain even though you subsequently lost money. The one good piece of news in this is that when/if you sell your XRP (or change it back to BTC), you will get a capital loss for the value that XRP dropped.
There is one final point worth discussing in this section - the so called "like kind exchange" rules (aka section 1031 exchange). At a high level, these rules say that you can "swap" property with someone else without having to pay taxes on the exchange as long as you get property in return that is "like kind". Typically, these rules are used in real estate transactions. However, they can also apply to other types of transactions as well.
While the idea is simple (and makes it sound like crypto for crypto should qualify), the exact rules/details of this exception are very fact specific. Most experts (including myself, but certainly not calling myself an expert) believe that a crypto for crypto swap is not a like kind exchange. The recently passed tax bill also explicitly clarifies this issue - starting in 2018, only real estate qualifies for like kind exchange treatment. So, basically, the vast majority of evidence suggests that you can't use this "loophole" for 2017; however, there is a small minority view/some small amount of belief that this treatment would work for 2017 taxes and it is worth noting that I'm unaware of any court cases directly testing this approach.
Dealing with "Forks"
Perhaps another unpleasant surprise for crypto holders is that "forks" to create a new crypto also very likely generate a taxable event. The IRS has long (since at least the 1960s) held that "found" money is a taxable event. This approach has been litigated in court and courts have consistently upheld this position; it even has its own cool nerdy tax name - the "treasure trove" doctrine.
Practically, what this means is that if you owned BTC and it "forked" to create BCH, then the fair market value of the BCH you received is considered a "treasure trove" that must be reported as income (ordinary income - no capital gain rates). This is true whether or not you sold your BCH; if you got BCH from a fork, that is a taxable event (note - I'll continue using BTC forking to BCH in this section as an example, but the logic applies to all forks).
While everything I've discussed up to this point is pretty clearly established tax law, forks are really where things get messy with taxes. Thus, the remainder of this section contains more speculation than elsewhere in this post - the truth is that while the idea is simple (fork = free money = taxable), the details are messy and other kinds of tax treatment might apply to forks.
One basic practical problem with forks is that the new currency doesn't necessarily start trading immediately. Thus, you may have received BCH before there was a clear price or market for it. Basically, you owe tax on the value of BCH when you received it, but it isn't completely clear what that value was. There are several ways you can handle this; I'll list them in order from most accurate to least accurate (but note that this is just my personal view and there is ongoing disagreement on this issue with little/no authoritative guidance).
  • Use a futures market to determine the value of the BCH - if reliable sources published realistic estimates of what BCH will trade for in the future once trading begins, use this estimate as the value of your BCH. Pros/cons - futures markets are, in theory, pretty accurate. However, if they are volatile/subject to manipulation, they may provide an incorrect estimate of the true value of BCH. It would suck to use the first futures value published only to have that value plummet shortly thereafter, leaving you to pay ordinary income tax but only have an unrealized capital loss.
  • Wait until an exchange starts trading BCH; use the actual ("spot" price) as the value. Pros/cons - spot prices certainly reflect what you could have sold BCH for; however, it is possible that the true value of the coin was highelower when you received it as compared to when it started trading on the exchange. Thus this method seems less accurate to me than a futures based approach, but it is still certainly fairly reasonable.
  • Assume that the value is $0. This is my least preferred option, but there is still a case to be made for it. If you receive something that you didn't want, can't access, can't sell, and might fail, does it have any value? I believe the answer is yes (maybe not value it perfectly, but value it somewhat accurately), but if you honestly think the answer is no, then the correct tax answer would be to report $0 in income from the fork. The IRS would be most likely to disagree with this approach, especially since it results in the least amount of income reported for the current year (and the most favorable rates going forward). Accordingly, if you go this route, make extra sure you understand what it entails.
Note, once you've decided what to report as taxable income, this amount also becomes your cost basis in the new crypto (BCH). Thus, when you ultimately sell your BCH (or trade it for something else as described above), you calculate your gain/loss based on what you included in taxable income from the fork.
Finally, there is one more approach to dealing with forks worth mentioning. A fork "feels" a lot like a dividend - because you held BTC, you get BCH. In a stock world, if I get a cash dividend because I own the stock, that money is not treated as a "treasure trove" and subject to ordinary income rates - in most cases, it is a qualified dividend and subject to capital gain rates; in some cases, some types of stock dividends are completely non taxable. This article discusses this idea in slightly more detail and generally concludes that forks should not be treated as a dividend. Still, I would note that I'm unaware of any court cases directly testing this theory.
Ultimately, this post is supposed to be practical, so let me make sure to leave you with two key thoughts about the taxation of forks. First, I believe that the majority of evidence suggests that forks should be treated as a "treasure trove" and reported as ordinary income based on their value at creation and that this is certainly the "safest" option. Second, out of everything discussed in this post, I also believe that the correct taxation of forks is the murkiest and most "up for debate" area. If you are interested in a more detailed discussion of forks, see this thread for a previous version of this post discussing it at even more length and the comments for a discussion of this with the tax community.
Mining Crypto
Successfully mining crypto coins is a taxable event. Depending on the amount of effort you put into mining, it is either considered a hobby or a self-employment (business) activity. The IRS provides the following list of questions to help decide the correct classification:
  • The manner in which the taxpayer carries on the activity.
  • The expertise of the taxpayer or his advisors.
  • The time and effort expended by the taxpayer in carrying on the activity.
  • Expectation that assets used in activity may appreciate in value.
  • The success of the taxpayer in carrying on other similar or dissimilar activities.
  • The taxpayer’s history of income or losses with respect to the activity.
  • The amount of occasional profits, if any, which are earned.
If this still sounds complicated, that's because the distinction is subject to some amount of interpretation. As a rule of thumb, randomly mining crypto on an old computer is probably a hobby; mining full time on a custom rig is probably a business.
In either event, you must include in income the fair market value of any coins you successfully mine. These are ordinary income and your basis in these coins is their fair market value on the date they were mined. If your mining is a hobby, they go on line 21 (other income) and any expenses directly associated with mining go on schedule A (miscellaneous subject to 2% of AGI limitation). If your mining is a business, income and expenses go on schedule C.
Both approaches have pros and cons - hobby income isn't subject to the 15.3% self-employment tax, only normal income tax, but you get fewer deductions against your income and the deductions you get are less valuable. Business income has more deductions available, but you have to pay payroll (self-employment) tax of about 15.3% in addition to normal income tax.
What if I didn't keep good records? Do I really have to report every transaction?
One nice thing about the IRS treating crypto as an asset is that we can look at how the IRS treats people that "day trade" stock and often don't keep great records/have lots of transactions. While you need to be as accurate as possible, it is ok to estimate a little bit if you don't have exact records (especially concerning your cost basis). You need to put in some effort (research historical prices, etc...) and be reasonable, but the IRS would much rather you do a little bit of reasonable estimation as opposed to just not reporting anything. Sure, they might decide to audit you/disagree with some specifics, but you earn yourself a lot of credit if you can show that you honestly did the best you reasonably could and are making efforts to improve going forward.
However, concerning reporting every transaction - yes, sorry, it is clear that you have to do this, even if you made hundreds or thousands of them. Stock traders have had to go through this for many decades, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that the IRS would accept anything less from the crypto community. If you have the records or have any reasonable way of obtaining records/estimating them, you must report every transaction.
What if I don't trust you?
Well, first let me say that I can't believe you made it all the way down here to this section. Thanks for giving me an honest hearing. I would strongly encourage you to go read other well-written, honest guides. I'll link to some I like (both more technical IRS type guides and more crypto community driven guides). While a certain portion of the crypto community seems to view one of the benefits of crypto as avoiding all government regulation (including taxes), I've been pleasantly surprised to find that many crypto forums contain well reasoned, accurate tax guides. While I may not agree with 100% of their conclusions, that likely reflects true uncertainty around tax law that is fundamentally complex rather than an attempt on either end to help individuals unlawfully avoid taxes.
IRS guides
Non-IRS guides
submitted by Mrme487 to personalfinance [link] [comments]

How to succesfully Invest and Basics

This was written for a different group /stocks it got deleted so hopefully this time it works !
Disclaimer
I dont want to sell you or recommend anything ! Just my expierence and little help so enjoy. If you want to ask me anything feel free, I try so answer everything.

This article is meant to be a small guide that helps you to find your way. Its based on my experience and knowledge, I gained throughout the years. Iam by far no professional. Iam just a guy who loves to invest. If you are new and have few grands to invest this article might help you.
My motivation to write this article was because when I turned 20 I got a small loan of 1 milli.... just few grands from my parents plus the savings I made from working. For me it was clear that I want to invest them. I always liked the idea making money and not really working for it! (Spoiler its kinda true and kinda not)
So I sum up few steps which will helped me to orientate and maybe help you to make your first investement
Step one 1. Where I can Invest?! You can basicly invest in everything. They are infinite options but I just cover up few topics.
They are 5 investments I would like to adress.
  1. Stocks.
    1. Real estate
    2. Options
    3. Start-ups
    4. Krypto n+1. art, old cars, drugs?! (Don’t do or sell drugs pls!)
Stocks (my fav.) I love stocks. I love understanding what the company’s plans are and where they are heading.
They are 3 different types of investment strategies.
  1. Short term (daily) That’s usually daily trading. That means you invest and sell on a daily basis. If your not a expert it can frustrating and the chances that you will lose is high. Many people forget that you have to pay taxes and fees so even if you for example invest 1.000 and sell for 1.050 within 20 min. You will have to pay some fees and taxes and with luck, you are where you started. It only makes sense when you invest a lot, otherwise it makes no sense and to be honest I don’t know any person which makes profit with it.
Difficulty: Hard
Stress Lvl: High
Risk: Medium/High
Profit: Usualy bad
Investement: Medium
  1. Mid term (6month – 1 year+) You buy some stocks for a longer period of time and hope it will go up soon.
This investment is much easier and less risky than short term. You see a stock going up and up so you invest 5k and hope you can ride a little on this upwards trend. Its fairly easy but you have to keep an eye on the market. A good example is VW it dropped because it has some Image problems. Thats a chance to invest! It will most likely to recover because its the biggest automarker in the world and it did. It happend 1000 times and normaly big companies dont fail they are exception but without risk you dont get anywhere
Difficulty: Medium
Stress: Medium
Risk: Medium
Profit: Good
Investment: Low
  1. Long term ( 1-2years – 10 years+) Means you want to invest for a long time you are not only interested in making a quick buck but making a slow and steady progress. You are not interested if the stock goes up or down but you are more interested how much divendend they pay. Usualy they go up very slowly but steady. A good example for this type of stock is Royal Dutch (shell) it has ist up and downs but compared to other stocks ist stable. The dividend is 6% which is insanly good no other big company will pay you that every year. You invest 10.000€ and get every year 600€ which means a holiday for free. Also the work is very little, you only have to check the stocks every few weeks/month You wont get rich but its better than having it in the bank.
Difficulty: Easy
Stress: Low
Risk: Low
Profit: Low
Investment: Low-Medium
Before you invest check the company read the news and get a good overview. I have to admit Iam a fanboy at heart. When a stock of one of my fav. company’s has potential and it does make sense to invest it feels like buying tickets for my favorite Rockband. You support and cheer them on and if they grow you grow with them. BUUUUUUT don’t get my wrong never buy stocks just because you like the company or they have a cool name.
All in all Stocks are a great Investment!
Real Estate
If you want to invest in houses it’s a very save and profitable investment but it depends on your area and country you are coming from. In Germany most objects are overpriced right now so it wouldnt make any sense to buy some. In generell the more money you have the better. They will will be much more people who can afford an cheap flat/condo than the other way around. So expensive objects are better! The optimum is always a shitty apartment in a very good area. Also buying objects in bad areas cause lots of trouble with tenant. Crazy families who refuse to pay, messy people etc. this can end in a stressful situation so beware of that.
If you are already rich af than buy propreties
Example
I went once to an auction and most apartments are sold for double the estimated value. It would take ages (20+ years) to get your investment back. So beware of your market situation.
Difficulty: Easy
Stress: Usualy low/medium
Risk: Low
Profit: Medium
Investment: High
Options
Options are basicly betting that a stock with go up or down. You can bet on nearly everything. You can make lot of money very quick and lose everything even quicker. For me option trading is gambling with few extra steps. The difference is you can lose more than you invest. They are cases where people invest 1000€ and lose -120.000€ because suddelny the market changed.
If you have gambling problems and tendency to gamble this is absolutly not for you. You can see here (in the forum) lots of bad examples where people going full YOLO on something and lose a ton of money. They save up a little, invest in something even more risky and lose again.
I know a friend who makes good money from it but he has a clear head and read many books about this topic he uses software to analyse the situation and everything and he admits that sometimes he doesnt understand what happend. Of course options are not the devils tool but I like to be the voice against it. The truth is in the middle.
Iam a person who likes to understand what am I doing. After reading and learning about it, for more than a year I was more confused than before. It is probably because Iam to stupid for it, so I gave it up and moved on. Options are not for me
Difficulty: very hard (at least for me)
Stress: high
Risk: low - very risky
Profit: It can be everything
Investment: low
  1. Start-ups
Start-ups are also a great business opportunity. I was lucky enough to invest once a little bit into a upcoming company from my firend. He showed me his company and the plans for the future. I already helped him with few shows and stuff so I knew how everything worked.
The biggest bullshit I ever saw are the analyse prediction of the future sales. During the last few years I saw few of them and they all predicted that the company will make an absurd amount of money. It looked like high cool project all shiny and with big numbers. To be honest I dont even know who pay these people to make such bullshit predictions, seriously.
(as you can see I love talking from my life so forgive me my dear)
Long story short I still invested because I understood their model. They existed and already made great progress. I made 50% profit in 3 years. I am still very happy and greatful to had such good chance to invest and would do it again.
They biggest question is how do I find such chances ?
Tell people you are intersted to invest maybe a friend of you will start an company and you can invest or help you to find such a opprtunity. I went to many start up meetings and talk about a lot with my friends. They dont want to hear it but I tell them anyway and if there is a chance they will call me.
Few Tipps:
- Look for already existing companys
- Most companys give you a very good inside look before you invest! If not watch out they hide something.
- Try to understand what they are doing and where they are heading
- Look what the will offer you for your money!
Difficulty: Medium/hard
Stress: Medium/low
Risk: Medium/High
Profit: Good/Very good
Investment: From Low to high
  1. Krypto
Boy oh boy where to start. I heard to many experts saying yeah krypto thats future boyyyyyy I invested everything BOYYYYYYY and in few month I will be rich BOIIIIII. I heard this story so often that Iam allgeric to it now. This irregulated mess based purly on speculations wasnt anything form me. I didnt invest a cent into it and had lots of chances when bitcoin was 300-500 €. It didnt simply fit into my portfolio. It had no function for me. You could pay for your drugs in the deep web and some hipster pizzerias accepted it but in generell it had no function. So investing into kryptos is just speclutions it has no real fundation what I like.
My friends who invested early made a ton of money but all the people on the Hypetrain crashed.
Difficulty: I dont know
Stress: Depends how much storys you make about it on Instagra´m
Risk: Over 9000
Profit: It can be everything from super high to low in just few days
Investment: What ever you want, if this is still to expensive for you, make your own coin and hope some Idiot buys it!
Now you know my knowledge ehh more like my opionen on few things now its time for……. Step. 2. Get a rough overview
Back than I didn’t know where to start so I asked everybody for advice like parents, friends , my parents friends, banks, forums, news etc. and got very different results.
Friends and family can be a good source of information how they did it. Of course often investments are impossible to repeat because they are 20 years ago but they can give some good advice. Its nice to hear few cool stories.
Example
Royal Dutch shell hast wo different stocks. One based in england (B) one Dutch version (A) (explained very simple, not 100% accurate). If you purchase Royal Dutch (A) you have to pay a 15% withholding tax that you wouldnt when you buy Royal Dutch (B).
Banks
Banks are terrible to ask. I always had shitty experience. The lured me into meetings, only to sell some shitty investment models from which they make some good money of me or some stupid insurence. They are not interested in your loses or profits they are interested to sell you the next stupid investement from which the make money. They never keep their promises and if you loose they will cheer you up and show their new hot investement and so on and so on until you loose and they drop you.
My mom works kind of in the finance sector and you wont believe home money older people lost ton of money because of this. I also found few very shady investements opportunities who would be illegal but I wont get into detail cause I dont have 100% proof for it and I also dont want to get in any trouble. As you can see Iam not big fan oft them and do not recommend!
News/charts/indexes/Forums
For me charts & news works the best. It’s easily so see what’s going on and gives you a great overview. The chart showed that a stock dropped 5%?! Good! Read the news/forums and find out what is going on! It’s that easy you don’t need 15 monitors and crazy software to understand what is happening. Dont make it to complicated! Have an easy overview about the market which you would like to invest.
Example
My parents invested around a year ago alot in Tesla. It was before Model 3 was released. Tesla had no expierence in mass production and it was clear (at least to me) that they wont have an easy start. They still made no profit and it was the first step to play with the big boys. Back than the Tesla stock was way over 300€ and it was based a lot on speculation and hype. It couldnt live up to they hype and dropped ≈ 30% - 35%.
  1. Few points & strategies
No Emotions
Never ever let your emotions guide you. Stocks are not based on a stomach feeling or any other emotion. Dont invest just because you like Elon Musk or Apple or anything. If I have a the chance to invest into one because the timing is right. Always make sure you know what you are doing. When it can wait a day, sleep a night about it and be sober! You can get sucked up into this world you will start giving a shit if you lose one grand and start digging deeper and deeper and lose sense the value of it. Stay sober and now when you have to stop.
Making losses
It will happend and dont freak out !
They are two options how to handle it and it depends on few things.
  1. Sell them, you see the ship is sinking and their no possibility you can save it than sell it, It hurts but better early than it is to late. Or you find a better possibility to invest for example a start up than its also fine.
  2. Keep it! Turning a Short/Mid-term investement into a long-term investement. Check first if the company will recover from it. For example the VW stocks dropped a lot due it scandal few years ago but it was clear that they will not go bankrupt so after a while they recover from it. Technically the market will grow infinite so after every crash they reach new heights, if you can wait that long the chances are high that you will make some profit and do not lose any money. Maybe the profit will be small but better than losing everything.
Diversity
Dont put all your eggs in one basket but also dont but every egg in a different basket. Have a good mix that you can still have an overview about your investment. Dont depend on one investment something bad can always happend. Having a good mix is important some investments will go up and few will go down. Its rearly that everything will crash (expect crises). So you can sell the good one and keep the bad ones until they go up.
Scams
Online
Stick to the basics! They are a ton of scammers online who want to show you a way to make fast money. Its mostly some MLM (multi level markting) aka Pryamide sheme, some buying and reselling some stuff from China or some weird option trading platform where pay in and your money is gone in 5 min without any trace o fit (no chance getting it back)! The Instagram advertisment is so ridiculous and I feel stupid mentioning it but hey if it wouldnt work they wouldnt exist. So please dont be this guy….
Offline
I really wanted to invest and have an own start-up. I met many people and visited countless seminars. Few of them offered me to invest but it was a mostly a mess. Onced I got fooled. A friend and I meet a person who had a start up for social media. We had some meetings restaurant he paid everything for us and looked very legit. I worked 3-4 month in this start up 3-4 hours a day, even on weekends for free. Only later to find out I was the only one working in it. (My friend pulled out very early cause he wanted to focus on his PhD) They rest oft he Team did absolute nothing! All the money the company generated was based on my work. They didnt make a lot of money but around 600-800€ a month. The founder spend all the money on vacation and stuff. I never got anything. They wanted to sell me 10% of the company for 15.000€. I always said I need more inside infos, which of course I never got. So I pulled out and they went mad and threaten me to sue me. I feel to this day ashamed that I trusted them and didnt saw it.
If you want get into something like this make a contract dont rely on handshakes people will tell you everything and wont keep it. I learned it the hard way
Be open minded
I met enough people who dont want to share with me their portfolio because they are scared that I will steal something from them. Its stupid! Talk to as many people als possible about your investment. Some amazing things can happend. I meet to many great people because of that and with some I share a 5+ years long friendship maybe we dont share the same ideas but I leanred a lot of it and sometimes I made some profit because of it! Be open !
Prediction & graphic lines
When I did my first Investment (it was gold) I read every morning every article about it I could for at least a solid year. Every monring 20 min Thats rouhly 120 hours. Thats time I will never get back. It was wasted time. The news/articels predicted everything. It was a rollercoaster. I believed it in the beginning because it was new to me. It really messed me up and I spend way to much time overthinking. Its fine to see a prediction but the more extreme it is the more it will never happend.
Also the trendlines are mostly worthless. I read so many people talking about the 50 day trendline or the 200 day trendline. It only idicates if a stock goes up or down but people interepte everything into it. “Oh yeah you can see the restience at 12.50 if it will drop below everbody will sell“. The next day it dropped and nothing happend. Dont believe everything in the internet. (lol)
Keep it simple
Dont make it to complicated you can have the best infos and charts and everything in the world and still lose everything. So dont make it to hard for yourself.
THE MOST IMPORTANT ADVICE
No depts
Dont take a credit just because you know a great investment. No matter how much you could earn DO NOT TAKE A CREDIT. This can not only ruin you financily but also your family and your whole life. This is no joke! Make no depts.
DO NOT MAKE FUCKING DEBTS!
My Strategy
It is a mixture of long term and mid-term stock investments. Its very easy I invested in:
Before I buy some
- Royal Dutch because of the high dividend
- Deutsche Bank when the hit nearly a all time low hoping to recover (still hoping ☹ )
- Lufthansa because they bought few airlines and hopefully will grow but its not (thanks Greta !)
- Tesla because they are low and made some good deals for the future. (update, sold it and made 30-35% in 6 weeks)
Am I rich or making a lot of money?! Hell no! But Iam making enough to pay for my holidays and few extras. I am patient enough to sit out bad times. I never sold anything with loose and I want to keep it that way. I like having a clean record.
Thanks for reading and feel free to ask my everything.
submitted by Ostblocktricker to howto [link] [comments]

The total computing power now dedicated to securing the bitcoin blockchain has set yet another record.

According to data from mining services operator BTC.com, the average bitcoin mining hash rate over the last two weeks has reached 71.43 quintillion hashes per second (EH/s), up from 64.49EH/s on July 23. The threshold was breached as bitcoin adjusted its mining difficulty at block height 586,672 on Monday 2:52 UTC – that is a 6.94EH/s, or 10.78 percent jump since mid July.
Bitcoin mining difficulty is a measure of how hard it is to compete for mining rewards on bitcoin. Just how difficult the bitcoin software makes it to generate new blocks adjusts every 2,016 blocks – approximately every 14 days – to ensure the block production time remains about 10 minutes at the next cycle.
Assume this additional 6.9EH/s (or 6.9 million tera hashes per second, TH/s) computing power has all come from powerful ASIC miners, such as Bitmain’s AntMiner S17 or MicroBT’s WhatsMiner M20S, both of which boast a mining rate of around 55TH/s and recently hit the market.
That means more than 100,000 top-of-line ASIC miners could have been switched on within the past two weeks. Further, given these products have been sold for at least $2,000 each, this equates to some $200 million in revenue pocketed for major miner makers.
The continued interest in bitcoin mining comes at a time when the cryptocurrency’s price appears to be en route to challenging all-time highs, however distantly, and amid the arrival of the rainy season in China, which leads to cheaper hydropower electricity costs in the country’s southwest provinces – a region that is reported to account for 50 percent of the global mining activity,
Miners in China estimated earlier this year that bitcoin’s hash rate in the summer would break the level of 70EH/s. To be clear, at several single points of time, bitcoin’s hash rate had already crossed that level in June and even reached 80EH/s around Aug. 1.
However, today marks the first time that the two-week average computing power has been able to remain above the 70EH/s threshold. As such, bitcoin’s mining difficulty has also set a new record of nearly 10 trillion.

Market change

Amidst this uptick in mining interest, there have been notable changes in the mining market, where top manufacturers are racing to produce more powerful equipment.
For instance, in Bitmain’s 2018 initial public offering prospectus, the Beijing-based mining giant claimed it had a 70 percent market dominance. Now, it may be facing serious competition from rival players that some believe are capable of shipping more top-of-line products with better profitability.
Michael Zhong, a former mining analyst who now operates mining farms at a startup called Force Mine, told CoinDesk that based on his experience, the production capacity ranking among major Chinese miner makers for their flagship products have changed over the years.
Zhong explained that from 2017 to 2018, Bitmain had topped the list with its AntMiner S9 series miners, followed by Canaan’s Avalon 8 series machines. InnoSilicon, Ebang and former Bitmain design director’s MicroBT were all in the third position at the time.
But from January to June this year, the delivery capacity ranking has reshuffled, with now MicroBT’s WhatsMiner M20 series at the top, followed by Bitmain’s S17 series miners and then InnoSilicon, Canaan, and Ebang, Zhong added.
According to F2pool’s miner profit tracker, Bitmain’s flagship AntMiner S17 Pro ranks third in terms of mining profitability, following BitFury’s Tardis and MicroBT’s WhatsMiner M20S. The cost for WhatsMiner M20S is around $3,000, while that of AntMiner S17 Pro is around $4,000 each, based on the information advertised on the two firms’ websites.
Although orders for these flagship machines have queued up until November and December this year, MicroBT’s founder Zuoxing Yang told CoinDesk previously that the bottleneck of production capacity is the availability of chips from suppliers.
For example, MicroBT uses 10-nm chips for its M20 series, which are relatively more affordable with a higher level of availability compared to more advanced 7-nm chips used by Bitmain for its AntMiner S17 series equipment.
While Bitmain has always been relying on chips supplied by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), MicroBT has switched from TSMC to Samsung earlier this year for its flagship products.
Both TSMC and Samsung have estimated in their most recent Q2 earnings calls that the demand for cryptocurrency mining chips will come back in the third and the fourth quarter this year.
Operating miners image courtesy to Hashage
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-computing-power-sets-new-record-as-over-100k-miners-go-online?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=coindesk&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=Organic%20
submitted by Muxa84 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Understanding Crypto Mining | And perhaps a way to mitigate its impact on the PC gaming ecosystem

EDIT: Per the moderation staff, I'm adding in to the header what I'm using to make it easier for prospective miners.
  1. Go to https://www.nicehash.com/
  2. Create a login
  3. Download their software and run it (this used to be "????")
  4. Profit
Once you reach 0.002 BTC (about 7-10 days on my GTX 1060 + i7-7700k), you can transfer your earnings to Coinbase for free, and cash out. CB does have fees for conversion to Fiat (cash) and your percentage goes down with higher amounts. So don't cash out just because you can. Cash out when you have enough to buy something.
Also a note on taxes. I'm going to keep this simple.
Hi folks. I just want to thank those of you in advance who trudge through this post. It's going to be long. I will try to have a TLDR at the end, so just scroll down for the bolded text if you want Cliff's Notes.
Disclaimer: I'm a miner, sort of. I casually mine when I sleep/work, using my existing PC. It doesn't make much. I don't buy hardware for mining. But, I still wanted to post this disclaimer in the interest of fairness.
As we all know, cryptocurrency mining has had a devastating impact on the PC gaming ecosystem. The demand for GPUs for mining has lead to scarce availability and sky high prices for relevant hardware. But even hardware that is less desirable for mining relative to their peers (GTX 1050ti, 1080) has been impacted. Why? Because when gamers can't get the 1060 or 1070 that they desire, they gravitate en masse towards something that their finances will allow them to settle for.
But for all that we know about mining, there's still a LOT of myth and misinformation out there. And I blame this on the bigger miners themselves. They have a few tactics they're using to discourage competition. Now, why would they do this? Simply put, the more coins are mined, the harder the algorithms get. That means the same hardware mines a lower rate of cryptocurrency over time. If the mining rates were to get too low before new hardware (Volta/Navi) could be released, it would cause a massive depression in the cryptocurrency market. Most hardware would become unprofitable, and used GPUs would flood the market. Miners want to retain profitability on current hardware until the next generation hardware is out.
So, what tactics are they engaging in? Silence and manipulation. On the former, the bigger miners don't usually participate and contribute to the community (there are exceptions, and they are greatly appreciated). They're sponges, taking whatever the community provides without returning much to the community. On the latter, they post here, in this very sub occasionally. And they continue to push certain types of myth/misinformation to discourage other users from mining.
And why, of all people, would you discourage gamers from mining? It's because of the competition point mentioned above. If a massive number of gamers entered the cryptocurrency mining market, it could trigger a mining apocalypse. There's an estimated 3-4 million current-gen GPUs being used in 24/7 mining operations by dedicated miners. Now, how many current-gen GPUs are used by gamers? I'd bet at least an equal amount. But what about Maxwell and Kepler? Or all those GCN-based GPUs up through Fiji? Bottom line is that when you factor in all available profitable GPUs, gamers drastically outnumber dedicated miners (yes, Kepler and GCN 1.0 are still profitable, barely). And if a large number of those users started casually mining as I am, the following would occur:
  • difficulty would increase, lower output (profitability) for everyone involved
  • Coin creation would initially accelerate, and with no massive change to the market cap, that means per-coin value drops
  • when you factor in slower coin generation for individual miners, coupled with lower coin value, you get...
  • ROI length increase on GPUs, depressing their values, which would lead to lower prices and higher availability
Oh dear, someone just spilled the beans...
So naturally, misinformation needs to be spread. If dedicated miners can keep the uninformed, well, uninformed, they're less likely to join in. And I've seen variations of the following misinformation spread. Here's the common tropes, and my rebuttal.
Mining on your GPU will cause it to die prematurely.
I really wish we had a Blackblaze-equivalent for GPUs used in data centers. NOTHING punishes a GPU like full-time use in a data center. Not mining, not gaming, and not prosumer usage. And these companies pay thousands per GPU. Clearly, they're getting solid ROI for their use.
But let's talk about mining specifically. For my GTX 1060, I limit power to 80% (96W). Fan speed is at a constant 40% (that's in the same ballpark as your blower-style GPU in desktop usage). Temperature is a constant 75°C. That's gentle. Gaming hurts it more (start/stop on the fan, varying temps, quick rise at the start and fall at the end, varying loads, etc.).
And if GPUs did prematurely die from mining? One miner insisted that I'd never see an ROI on my 1060 (which cost me $240) because it would die before I could earn that amount. Yea, GPUs routinely die before hitting their ROI. That's why miners are buying $200 GPUs today for $500, or $400 GPUs today for $900. Because they don't generate enough to cover their MSRP, let alone their current gouged prices. /s
Common sense would dictate that miners are profitable, or they wouldn't mine. Therefore, GPUs are not dying prematurely. So, don't fall for this one. And yes, I've seen those photos of the 20-card Sapphire RMA. Mining data centers have THOUSANDS of cards. Just do an image search for a GPU mining farm. This is well within typical acceptable defect rates.
Power costs are too high for mining to be profitable.
Warning! Danger Will Robinson! Math ahead!
Where I live, electricity ranges from 9.5 cents per kilowatt hour (kw/hr), to 10.1 cents per kw/hr. Let's round to 10 cents. Power measured at the wall from my surge protector, while mining, shows just under 200W. (That's includes my tower, monitor, speakers, a dedicated NAS, a router, and PSU inefficiency). That also includes mining on both CPU and GPU.
At 200W per hour, that's 5 hours to hit 1kw/hr. That's 5kw/hr per 25 hours, so let's call it 5kw/hr per day. That is $0.50 per day total from that outlet (and most of this stuff would be running anyway). That's not even "over my existing costs," that's just out the door.
Bottom line is that electricity is cheap in many areas. The USA national average is currently ~12 cents per kw/hr (RIP Hawaii, at 33 cents). For most of the developed world, power costs are not prohibitive. Don't fall for this. If unsure, check your rates on your bill, and ask someone who can do math if you can't.
Casually mining isn't profitable
There's a big difference between "profit" and "getting rich." I have no expectations of the latter happening from what I'm doing. But "profit" is very much real. It's not power costs that derail profitability. It's all of the hidden fees. Many mining programs take a cut of your output. And then a cut to transfer to a wallet. And then there's a fee to transfer to an exchange. Oh, did you want to then convert to cash? We can...for a fee!
The trick is in finding outlets that allow you to minimize fees. I give up 2% of my output, transfer to my wallet for free, can transfer to an exchange for free, and don't plan to cash out every time I meet the minimum threshold (higher fees!). I instead plan to cash out at extended set intervals to minimize those fees.
NOTE: I am deliberately not listing the provider(s) that I use, because I don't want to be accused of being associated with them and/or driving business to them. I want this post to be about the big picture. But I will answer questions in the comments, provided the moderation staff here has no objections.
Bottom line is that with a mid-range GPU like mine, and without the benefit of CPU mining (it's just not worth it without a modern Core i7, or Ryzen 5/7), my GPU alone could make me ~$60-$75/mo in profit at current rates. Think of how many months/years you go between upgrades. Now, do the math. Needless to say, I'm now regretting not going bigger up front :)
It's too complicated for a casual miner, so don't bother
The old "go big or go home" saying, and it sort of piggy backs off the last one. And there is some truth in this. If you're going to be a big-time miner, you need mining programs (often dedicated to each algorithm and/or currency), multiple wallets, access to multiple exchanges, etc. It's daunting.
But for the casual, you don't need that. There are multiple providers who offer you a one-stop-shop. I have one login right now. That login gives me my mining software, which switches between multiple algorithms/coins, gives me a wallet, and lets me transfer to an outside wallet/exchange. My second login will be the exchange (something that lets me convert my currency to local cash) when my balance justifies it. Given the recent Robin Hood announcement, I'm biding my time to see what happens. This space is getting competitive (lower fees).
Bottom line, it's easier now than it ever was before. As I told someone else, "Once I finally started, I wanted to kick my own ass for waiting so long."
New GPUs are expensive, but if you just wait, there will be a buttload of cheap, used GPUs for you!
Miners learned from the last crash. There were two types of miners in that crash: those who sold their GPUs at a loss, and those who kept mining and made out like bandits on the upswing. Turns out, cryptocurrency really does mimic the stock market (for now).
We're going to look at Bitcoin (BTC) to explain this. No, miners don't mine BTC. But, BTC is commonly what most coins are exchanged for (it makes up roughly one third of the entire cryptocurrency market). And it's the easiest currency to convert to cash. So, when BTC rises or falls in price, the rest of the market goes with it. That includes all of the coins that GPU miners are actually mining.
In January 2017, when the current mining push started, BTC was worth roughly $900 per coin. It's now worth roughly (as of this post) $12,000 per coin, down from a December high of over $20,000 per coin. So yea, the market "crashed." It's also more than 12x the value it was a year ago, when miners dove in. You think they're going to bail at 12x the value? Son, I've got news for you. This market needs to truly crash and burn for them to bail (and that's where you come in!).
So, there's not going to be a flood of used GPUs from a sudden market crash. Again, they've learned from that mistake. Used GPUs will enter the market when they are no longer profitable for mining, and not before. Dedicated miners have lots of room for expansion. When Volta comes out, they're not selling their Pascal GPUs. They're building new Volta mining rigs alongside the Pascal ones, making money off each of them.
Conclusion/TLDR:
  • Mining is subject to diminishing returns. It gets harder over time on the same hardware.
  • PC gamers joining the market en masse could trigger an apocalypse in terms of difficulty
  • Due to this, it benefits pro miners to spread misinformation to discourage gamers from entering the mining game
  • Casually mining on your existing system is safe, easy, could help you pay for your next upgrade(s), and could also hurt the mining market in general (better availability/pricing on GPUs)
  • No, there's no flood of used Pascal/Polaris/Vega GPUs around the corner, as those are HIGHLY profitable even in a depressed market
Second Conclusion - Why do I (jaykresge) personally care?
Simply put, I'm disgusted by this. I was excited about flipping a few friends from consoles to PC gaming. I'm now seeing a reverse trend. One friend is gaming on an RX 560 waiting for prices to hit sanity. He's running out of patience. Others have bailed.
I view our dormant GPUs as the best weapon against cryptocurrency mining. Destroy it from the inside. It's win-win for most of us. Either we earn enough for more upgrades, or we depress pricing. Something's got to give.
In other words, y'all f*ckers better start mining, because I want Volta to be reasonably priced when it launches so I can get an EVGA x80 Hybrid to go with a G-Sync monitor. And if this doesn't happen, I'm going to be cranky!
Seriously though, thanks for reading. Bear with me as I go over this a few more times for typing/grammar. And I look forward to your comments.
submitted by jaykresge to hardware [link] [comments]

Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191023(Market index 33 — Fear state)

Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191023(Market index 33 — Fear state)

https://preview.redd.it/folaa2ztw9u31.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0aaa8476acb68252087ddf0558d293b5a9a9392

Germany Warns Of Privacy Token Usage In Money Laundering And Terrorism According to Cointelegraph, the German Federal Ministry of Finance has expressed concerns about rising use of privacy tokens due to their association with criminal activities and difficulties in tracking them. Published on Oct 19, the ministry’s “First Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing National Risk Assessment” for 2018–2019 provided analysis aimed at the identification of existing and future risks in the field of anti-money laundering (AML) and terrorism financing (TF) in Germany. Among other challenges, the report examines circulation of cryptocurrencies in the darknet for criminal purposes.
State Probe Of Facebook Expands To 47 Attorneys General According to Reuters news flash, the state probe of Facebook on allegations that the company put consumer data at risk and pushed up advertising rates has expanded to attorneys general from 47 states and territories, New York Attorney General Letitia James said on Tuesday, October 22 in a statement.
Bank Of Lithuania Becomes First Market Regulator To Issue Guidelines On STOs According to coinpage, Bank of Lithuania has become the first of market regulators to issue guidelines on STOs. The new guidelines are focussed on the classification of security tokens, assessing specific cases and providing recommendations related to the issue of the security tokens and also clarify on applicable legal regulation. Furthermore, enterprises planning to use the STO method will need to comply with EU and national legislation regulating capital-raising activities.
TBCASoft, IBM And SoftBank Announced A Mobile Payment Blockchain Blockchain platform TBCASoft, technology behemoth IBM and telecommunications conglomerate SoftBank announced on Oct 22 a collaboration to adopt a cross-carrier telecommunications blockchain payment solution.

Encrypted project calendar(October 23, 2019)

MIOTA/IOTA: IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 23rd at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles with the theme “Connecting the I3 Market and Experiencing Purchase and Sales Data.” BTC/Bitcoin: The WBS World Blockchain Summit (Middle East) will be held in Dubai from October 23rd to 24th. Cardano (ADA) and 1 other: 23 October 2019 WBS Dubai “One of a kind gathering of 500+ curated & pre-qualified investors, CEOs, CIOs, CTOs, Heads of Blockchain, Chief Digital Officers CloakCoin (CLOAK): 23 October 2019 (or earlier) CloakCoin Competition “CloakCoin competition : solve the CloakCoin ENIGMA transaction, 3rd round.” Loom Network (LOOM): 23 October 2019 Singapore Meetup “Unstack the Stack Series: Loom Network” from 6:30–8:30 PM (SST). BTGS/Bitdog: ZG.COM will open the BTGS currency and coin transfer business at 14:00 on October 23, and open the BTGS/USDT transaction pair on October 23 at 18:18. Waltonchain (WTC): 23 October 2019 Transfers Suspended “$WTC deposits and withdrawals on #TaibiExchange will be suspended from 00:00 Oct 22 (UTC+8) and are estimated to resume at 15:00 Oct 23

Encrypted project calendar(October 24, 2019)

BCN/Bytecoin: Bytecoin (BCN) released the hidden amount of the Bytecoin block network on October 24. Horizen (ZEN): 24 October 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA. ANT/Aragon: Aragon (ANT) Aragon Network will hold the theme “DAO: ICO and DeFi next step” in Hong Kong on October 24th? DATA/Streamr DATAcoin: Streamr DATAcoin (DATA) Streamr Network Technology Exchange and Project Development Conference will be held in London on October 24th. Lisk (LSK): 24 October 2019 Coding Workshop — Berlin “During this workshop you will acquire the skills to create custom transactions with the Lisk Alpha SDK using Node.js.” BTU Protocol (BTU): 24 October 2019 Africa IT Expo “Our co-founder @vidal007 will be speaking at upcoming @africa_aitex [African IT Expo] held in #Rabat #Morocco on 24th of October.” Matrix AI Network (MAN): 24 October 2019 YouTube AMA YouTube AMA from 3PM, October 24 (GMT+8). Utrum (OOT): 24 October 2019 AtomicDex Listing “We are pleased to announce that Utrum coin OOT is getting listed on Komodo Platform Decentral Exchange — AtomicDEX. “

Encrypted project calendar(October 25, 2019)

ADA/Cardano: Cardano (ADA) The Ada community will host a community gathering in the Dominican Republic for the first time on October 25. Crypto.com Coin (CRO): 25 October 2019 Live AMA with CEO “Live AMA with our CEO @Kris_HK on @cryptocom’s Twitter next Friday, 25 October, 11AM HKT.” GST/GSTCOIN: GSTCOIN(GST)LBank will be online GST on October 25, 2019 at 16:00 (UTC+8), open trading pair: GST/USDT, GST/ETH.

Encrypted project calendar(October 26, 2019)

KAT/Kambria: Kambria (KAT) Kambria will host the 2019 Southern California Artificial Intelligence and Data Science Conference in Los Angeles on October 26th with IDEAS. BTC/Bitcoin: CoinAgenda Global Summit will be held in Las Vegas from October 26th to 28th Horizen (ZEN): 26 October 2019 (or earlier) ZEN 2.0.19 Upgrade Zen 2.0.19 upgrade at block #610000, which is expected around October 26.

Encrypted project calendar(October 27, 2019)

ICON (ICX): 27 October 2019 Money 20/20 USA Event Money 20/20 USA in Las Vegas from October 27–30.

Encrypted project calendar(October 28, 2019)

LTC/Litecoin: Litecoin (LTC) 2019 Litecoin Summit will be held from October 28th to October 29th in Las Vegas, USA BTC/Bitcoin: Mt.Gox changes the debt compensation plan submission deadline to October 28 ZEC/Zcash: Zcash (ZEC) will activate the Blossom Agreement on October 28th Stellar (XLM): 28 October 2019 Protocol 12 Upgrade Vote Horizon v0.22.0 has been released, which supports Protocol 12. This gives everyone ample time to prepare for the Protocol 12 upgrade vote Celsius (CEL) and 3 others: 28 October 2019 Litecoin Summit “…The Litecoin Summit offers two fun, jam-packed days with something for everyone.” XFOC (XFOC): The IDAX platform will be online XFOC and will open the XFOC/USDT trading pair at 13:00 on October 28. MEDIUM (MDM): The IDAX platform lists MDM and will open MDM/BTC trading pairs on October 28th at 15:00. ZB/ ZB Blockchain: The “2019 Hamburg Intercontinental Dialogue Conference” hosted by ZB.com will be held from October 28th to November 9th at the Four Seasons Hotel Hamburg, Germany. BQT (BQTX): 28 October 2019 Down for Maintenance BQTX.com will be down for maintenance on the 28th of October from 7 to 12am UTC.

Encrypted project calendar(October 29, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2nd World Encryption Conference (WCC) will be held in Las Vegas from October 29th to 31st. ICON (ICX): 29 October 2019 Decentralization “As a result, the decentralization schedule of the ICON Network has been changed from September 24, 2019 to October 29, 2019.” Ark (ARK): and 10 others 29 October 2019 WCC 2019 Second annual Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Technology event, World Crypto Conference (WCC), October 29th — October 31, 2019. Insifa (ISF): 29 October 2019 Prototype Alpha “We from Insifa have decided to be more open. Our Prototype will be developed in scrum. This means new releases every two weeks.”

Encrypted project calendar(October 30, 2019)

MIOTA/IOTA: IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 30th at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on the topic “How to store data on IOTA Tangle.” TRON (TRX): 30 October 2019 SFBW19 Afterparty “TRON Official SFBW19 Afterparty from 7–10:30 PM in San Francisco.” Horizen (ZEN): 30 October 2019 Horizen Quarterly Update Join our first Quarterly Update on October the 30th at 5 PM UTC/ 1 PM EST. Deeper look into Engineering, BD, Marketing, and more. Aeternity (AE): 30 October 2019 Hardfork “The third hardfork of the æternity Mainnet is scheduled for October 30, 2019.” Valor Token (VALOR): 30 October 2019 Transaction Fees Resume “It’s September and the SMART VALOR Platform is still waiving transaction fees for all members, until October 30th!” Aragon (ANT): 30 October 2019 Singapore Meetup “Aragon on DAOs and DeFi” from 6:30–8:30 PM. Kambria (KAT): 30 October 2019 Outliers Hashed Awards Outliers Hashed awards from October 30–31. Ethereum Classic (ETC): 30 October 2019 Cohort Demo Day “ETC Labs hosts it’s 2nd Cohort Demo Day. Learn about the companies and project being accelerated through the Ethereum Classic ecosystem.”

Encrypted project calendar(October 31, 2019)

Spendcoin (SPND): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Cross Ledger Mainnet “Cross Ledger Mainnet Release and SPND Token Swap,” during October 2019. Spendcoin (SPND): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Blkchn University Beta “Blockchain University Beta goes live,” during October 2019. Stellar (XLM): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Minor Release “We will have 6 Minor Releases in 2019; one each in February, March, May, June, August, and October.” Bitcoin SV (BSV): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) BSV Conference Seoul No additional information. Seele (SEELE): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Public Network Mainne launch has been moved to Oct 31 . Howdoo (UDOO): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Howdoo Live on Huawei Howdoo begins its exciting partnership with Huawei with listing as a featured app starting in October. Chiliz (CHZ): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) App Soft Launch Soft launch of Socios App by end of October. Dent (DENT): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Loyalty Program “Afterburner loyalty program launch for all 21,6 Million mobile #DENT users will be in October!” IceChain (ICHX): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Wallet Release IceChain releases wallet during October. Chiliz (CHZ): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) New Partnerships New sports and new teams joining Socios (+more updates and events) will be announced in the upcoming weeks. Horizen (ZEN): 31 October 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA. PCHAIN (PI): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) New Website No additional information. IOST (IOST): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) New Game on IOST “Eternal Fafnir, a new role-playing game developed by INFUN is coming to you in Oct.” Achain (ACT): 31 October 2019 Mainnet 2.0 Launch “… The main network is officially scheduled to launch on October 31.” Mithril (MITH):31 October 2019 Burn “MITH burn will take place on 2019/10/31 2pm UTC+8. “ Aergo (AERGO): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Aergo Lite V1.0 Release AergoLite, which brings blockchain compatibility to billions of devices using SQLite, released during October 2019. TE-FOOD (TFD): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Complementary Product “Development of a new, complementary product with a new partner, which we hope to be launched in September-October.” Edge (DADI): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Full Open Source Code base for the network fully open-sourced in September or October. BlockStamp (BST): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) ASIC Miner Prototype In orderr to ensure BlockStamps continued decentralization, we will release a BST ASIC miner for testing. Perlin (PERL): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) SSA Partnership “Perlin has partnered with the Singapore Shipping Association to create the International E-Registry of Ships (IERS)” Skrumble Network (SKM): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Exchange Release “3rd dApp: Exchange Release,” during October 2019. EDC Blockchain (EDC): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Blockchain Marketplace “As you already know, our ECRO blockchain marketplace is ready for release, and will open to the global community in October!” BlockStamp (BST): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) ASIC Miner Prototype In orderr to ensure BlockStamps continued decentralization, we will release a BST ASIC miner for testing. XinFin Network (XDCE): 31 October 2019 Homebloc Webinar “XinFin — Homebloc Webinar 2019” from 9–10 PM. Akropolis (AKRO): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Alpha Release “Delivers the initial mainnet implementation of protocol. All building blocks will be united to one product.” Hyperion (HYN): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Economic Model The final version of the HYN Economic Model launches in October.

Encrypted project calendar(November 1, 2019)

INS/Insolar: The Insolar (INS) Insolar wallet and the redesigned Insolar Block Explorer will be operational on November 1, 2019. VeChain (VET):”01 November 2019 BUIDLer Reunion Party BUIDLer Reunion Party in San Francisco from 8–11 PM. uPlexa (UPX): 01 November 2019 Steadfast Storm — PoS/PoW split (Utility nodes ie. master nodes) — Upcoming Anonymity Network much like TOR — Privacy-based DApps — Reduced network fees. Enjin Coin (ENJ): 01 November 2019 MFT Binding “ICYMI: On Enjin Coin’s 2nd anniversary (November 1), Enjin MFTs will be bound to hodlers’ blockchain addresses…” Auxilium (AUX):01 November 2019 AUX Interest Distribution Monthly interest distribution by Auxilium Interest Distribution Platform for coinholders. Also supports charity. Havy (HAVY):01 November 2019 Token Buyback “Havy tokens buyback, Only in 1 exchange between Idex, Mercatox & Hotbit. The exchange depends on the most lower sell wall.”

Encrypted project calendar(November 2, 2019)

Kambria (KAT): 02 November 2019 VietAI Summit 2019 Kambria joins forces with VietAI for the annual VietAI Summit, with top experts from Google Brain, NVIDIA, Kambria, VietAI, and more!

Encrypted project calendar(November 4, 2019)

Stellar (XLM): 04 November 2019 Stellar Meridian Conf. Stellar Meridian conference from Nov 4–5 in Mexico City. Cappasity (CAPP): 04 November 2019 Lisbon Web Summit Lisbon Web Summit in Lisbon, Portugal from November 4–7.

Encrypted project calendar(November 5, 2019)

Nexus (NXS): 05 November 2019 Tritium Official Release “Remember, Remember the 5th of November, the day Tritium changed Distributed Ledger. Yes, this is an official release date.” NEM (XEM): 05 November 2019 Innovation Forum — Kyiv NEM Foundation Council Member Anton Bosenko will be speaking in the upcoming International Innovation Forum in Kyiv on November 5, 2019.

Encrypted project calendar(November 6, 2019)

STEEM/Steem: The Steem (STEEM) SteemFest 4 conference will be held in Bangkok from November 6th to 10th. KIM/Kimcoin: Kimcoin (KIM) Bitfinex will be online at KIM on November 6, 2019 at 12:00 (UTC).

Encrypted project calendar(November 7, 2019)

XRP (XRP): 07 November 2019 Swell 2019 Ripple hosts Swell from November 7th — 8th in Singapore. BTC/Bitcoin: Malta The A.I. and Blockchain summit will be held in Malta from November 7th to 8th.

Encrypted project calendar(November 8, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th. IOTX/IoTeX: IoTex (IOTX) will participate in the CES Expo on November 08

Encrypted project calendar(November 9, 2019)

CENNZ/Centrality: Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.

Encrypted project calendar(November 11, 2019)

PAX/Paxos Standard: Paxos Standard (PAX) 2019 Singapore Financial Technology Festival will be held from November 11th to 15th, and Paxos Standard will attend the conference.

Encrypted project calendar(November 12, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The CoinMarketCap Global Conference will be held at the Victoria Theatre in Singapore from November 12th to 13th
https://preview.redd.it/uvnuirkww9u31.png?width=504&format=png&auto=webp&s=737fdd29c36f554223c9e7473cf843c60fe2bb6a

Recently, bitcoin made a few attempts to gain strength above the $8,300 resistance area against the US Dollar. BTC price even spiked above the $8,350 level, but it failed to continue higher.
As a result, a swing high was formed near $8,323 and the price started a fresh decline. During the decline, there was a break below a couple of important supports near $8,100 and $8,200. Moreover, there was a break below a short term ascending channel with support near $8,240 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Finally, bitcoin traded below the $8,100 support area and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average. It is now trading below the $8,000 level and a low was formed near $7,932.
Review previous articles: https://medium.com/@to.liuwen

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submitted by liuidaxmn to u/liuidaxmn [link] [comments]

18 Millionth BTC To Be Mined Today, Only 3 Million Left

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 63%. (I'm a bot)
The countdown begins to the 18 millionth Bitcoin that is expected to be mined on Friday.
The most popular cryptocurrency currently has 17,998,550 Bitcoin in existence, as of press time - a few thousand away from 18 million.
There are just three million left to be mined from a total of 21 million Bitcoin.
As explained by EO.Finance in a tweet: "In just a week, the 18 millionth coin will be mined on the Bitcoin network. It will take another 120 years to get the remaining 14.3% of the total supply. In May 2020, the Bitcoin halving will take place doubling the mining difficulty."
The scheduled halving of Bitcoin next year also drew some astronomic price projections with one German Bank, Bayerische Landesbank, predicting a $90,000 Bitcoin - other investors estimate it to be higher.
If somehow the $90,000 price materializes and BTC skyrockets in the next seven months, then that would mean a trillion-dollar market cap for Bitcoin next year is imminent.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: Bitcoin#1 mine#2 year#3 BTC#4 price#5
Post found in /worldnews and /news.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

Let's talk about Operation Dragonslayer

There's a conspiracy theory going around about Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH/BCC) that I think my fellow redditors should know about.
TLDR: In 17.5 hours BCH will try to usurp BTC as the "true" Bitcoin and this will cause BTC prices to tank to unrecoverable levels and will have side effects on alts as well since BTC is the main pair.
Technical TLDR: The conspiracy plan is that when Bitcoin locks their difficulty algorithm, a group of miners will switch to BCH in mass and pump BCH to huge levels. This will cause a panic sell of BTC and cause people to try and transfer BTC from their wallets to exchanges, but because all the miners have left and the difficulty is locked, the network will be clogged with slow and expensive transactions for the next 2 weeks, spelling the end of Bitcoin.
Longer Story
I'm going to assume most people here are fairly new to crypto and weren't around for all the politics and drama between /bitcoin and /btc
There's a lot to understand about the interplay between difficulty algorithm changes, miner reward incentives, the politics of the pools that take a while to go into.
These two articles might help catch you up:
Two weeks ago we saw something similar when BCH exploded and BTC went all the way down to $5500. This was because BTC had a difficulty algorithm change and BCH was approximately 3-4x more profitable to mine. Only Slush kept mining BTC so we'll see if they stay true to BTC this time around too.
Right now we're seeing BTC, ETH, and most alts fall at the exact same time BCH rises. This might be bots reading the right indicators and buying/selling.
The estimated time of the difficulty algorithm changes is on the bottom of https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
Other important items to note:
Will Thanksgiving Weekend 2017 be like Thanksgiving Weekend 2013? We'll see...
Strategies
  • Start moving your BTC and alts off of wallets and into the right exchanges just in case the networks get clogged and you want to be ready to make a move
  • Go into FIAT to avoid this drama and enter in again after this passes
  • Go into BCH
  • Put some super low limit orders on BTC in case stop orders and panic selling cause another flash crash like ETH had on GDAX
FAQ
What is the "dragon" being slain?
Some think it's Bitcoin, the biggest crypto. Other think it's a private chat group that a bunch of Core folks are in that they self-dubbed the Dragon's Den in an self-mocking fashion
Isn't this just some stupid 4chan meme?
Rational brains would agree, and chances are it really is and Jihan and gang are shaking their head in disbelief that people would believe something like this.
But $4B of volume on BCH is undeniable, and not something that a bunch of "trolls" can just conjure up.
submitted by darkally to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Understanding Crypto Mining | And perhaps a way to mitigate its impact on the PC gaming ecosystem

This is a crosspost from /hardware, but I will be editing this independently based on community feedback and guidelines. Prior to posting here, I reached out to your local mod staff to ensure that I wasn't stepping on any toes, given the nature of its content. I hope you find this useful.
Hi folks. I just want to thank those of you in advance who trudge through this post. It's going to be long. I will try to have a TLDR at the end, so just scroll down for the bolded text if you want Cliff's Notes.
Disclaimer: I'm a miner, sort of. I casually mine when I sleep/work, using my existing PC. It doesn't make much. I don't buy hardware for mining. But, I still wanted to post this disclaimer in the interest of fairness.
As we all know, cryptocurrency mining has had a devastating impact on the PC gaming ecosystem. The demand for GPUs for mining has lead to scarce availability and sky high prices for relevant hardware. But even hardware that is less desirable for mining relative to their peers (GTX 1050ti, 1080) has been impacted. Why? Because when gamers can't get the 1060 or 1070 that they desire, they gravitate en masse towards something that their finances will allow them to settle for.
But for all that we know about mining, there's still a LOT of myth and misinformation out there. And I blame this on the bigger miners themselves. They have a few tactics they're using to discourage competition. Now, why would they do this? Simply put, the more coins are mined, the harder the algorithms get. That means the same hardware mines a lower rate of cryptocurrency over time. If the mining rates were to get too low before new hardware (Volta/Navi) could be released, it would cause a massive depression in the cryptocurrency market. Most hardware would become unprofitable, and used GPUs would flood the market. Miners want to retain profitability on current hardware until the next generation hardware is out.
So, what tactics are they engaging in? Silence and manipulation. On the former, the bigger miners don't usually participate and contribute to the community (there are exceptions, and they are greatly appreciated). They're sponges, taking whatever the community provides without returning much to the community. On the latter, they post here, in this very sub occasionally. And they continue to push certain types of myth/misinformation to discourage other users from mining.
And why, of all people, would you discourage gamers from mining? It's because of the competition point mentioned above. If a massive number of gamers entered the cryptocurrency mining market, it could trigger a mining apocalypse. There's an estimated 3-4 million current-gen GPUs being used in 24/7 mining operations by dedicated miners. Now, how many current-gen GPUs are used by gamers? I'd bet at least an equal amount. But what about Maxwell and Kepler? Or all those GCN-based GPUs up through Fiji? Bottom line is that when you factor in all available profitable GPUs, gamers drastically outnumber dedicated miners (yes, Kepler and GCN 1.0 are still profitable, barely). And if a large number of those users started casually mining as I am, the following would occur:
  • difficulty would increase, lower output (profitability) for everyone involved
  • Coin creation would initially accelerate, and with no massive change to the market cap, that means per-coin value drops
  • when you factor in slower coin generation for individual miners, coupled with lower coin value, you get...
  • ROI length increase on GPUs, depressing their values, which would lead to lower prices and higher availability
Oh dear, someone just spilled the beans...
So naturally, misinformation needs to be spread. If dedicated miners can keep the uninformed, well, uninformed, they're less likely to join in. And I've seen variations of the following misinformation spread. Here's the common tropes, and my rebuttal.
Mining on your GPU will cause it to die prematurely.
I really wish we had a Blackblaze-equivalent for GPUs used in data centers. NOTHING punishes a GPU like full-time use in a data center. Not mining, not gaming, and not prosumer usage. And these companies pay thousands per GPU. Clearly, they're getting solid ROI for their use.
But let's talk about mining specifically. For my GTX 1060, I limit power to 80% (96W). Fan speed is at a constant 40% (that's in the same ballpark as your blower-style GPU in desktop usage). Temperature is a constant 75°C. That's gentle. Gaming hurts it more (start/stop on the fan, varying temps, quick rise at the start and fall at the end, varying loads, etc.).
And if GPUs did prematurely die from mining? One miner insisted that I'd never see an ROI on my 1060 (which cost me $240) because it would die before I could earn that amount. Yea, GPUs routinely die before hitting their ROI. That's why miners are buying $200 GPUs today for $500, or $400 GPUs today for $900. Because they don't generate enough to cover their MSRP, let alone their current gouged prices. /s
Common sense would dictate that miners are profitable, or they wouldn't mine. Therefore, GPUs are not dying prematurely. So, don't fall for this one. And yes, I've seen those photos of the 20-card Sapphire RMA. Mining data centers have THOUSANDS of cards. Just do an image search for a GPU mining farm. This is well within typical acceptable defect rates.
Power costs are too high for mining to be profitable.
Warning! Danger Will Robinson! Math ahead!
Where I live, electricity ranges from 9.5 cents per kilowatt hour (kw/hr), to 10.1 cents per kw/hr. Let's round to 10 cents. Power measured at the wall from my surge protector, while mining, shows just under 200W. (That's includes my tower, monitor, speakers, a dedicated NAS, a router, and PSU inefficiency). That also includes mining on both CPU and GPU.
At 200W per hour, that's 5 hours to hit 1kw/hr. That's 5kw/hr per 25 hours, so let's call it 5kw/hr per day. That is $0.50 per day total from that outlet (and most of this stuff would be running anyway). That's not even "over my existing costs," that's just out the door.
Bottom line is that electricity is cheap in many areas. The USA national average is currently ~12 cents per kw/hr (RIP Hawaii, at 33 cents). For most of the developed world, power costs are not prohibitive. Don't fall for this. If unsure, check your rates on your bill, and ask someone who can do math if you can't.
Casually mining isn't profitable
There's a big difference between "profit" and "getting rich." I have no expectations of the latter happening from what I'm doing. But "profit" is very much real. It's not power costs that derail profitability. It's all of the hidden fees. Many mining programs take a cut of your output. And then a cut to transfer to a wallet. And then there's a fee to transfer to an exchange. Oh, did you want to then convert to cash? We can...for a fee!
The trick is in finding outlets that allow you to minimize fees. I give up 2% of my output, transfer to my wallet for free, can transfer to an exchange for free, and don't plan to cash out every time I meet the minimum threshold (higher fees!). I instead plan to cash out at extended set intervals to minimize those fees.
NOTE: I am deliberately not listing the provider(s) that I use, because I don't want to be accused of being associated with them and/or driving business to them. I want this post to be about the big picture. But I will answer questions in the comments, provided the moderation staff here has no objections.
Bottom line is that with a mid-range GPU like mine, and without the benefit of CPU mining (it's just not worth it without a modern Core i7, or Ryzen 5/7), my GPU alone could make me ~$60-$75/mo in profit at current rates. Think of how many months/years you go between upgrades. Now, do the math. Needless to say, I'm now regretting not going bigger up front :)
It's too complicated for a casual miner, so don't bother
The old "go big or go home" saying, and it sort of piggy backs off the last one. And there is some truth in this. If you're going to be a big-time miner, you need mining programs (often dedicated to each algorithm and/or currency), multiple wallets, access to multiple exchanges, etc. It's daunting.
But for the casual, you don't need that. There are multiple providers who offer you a one-stop-shop. I have one login right now. That login gives me my mining software, which switches between multiple algorithms/coins, gives me a wallet, and lets me transfer to an outside wallet/exchange. My second login will be the exchange (something that lets me convert my currency to local cash) when my balance justifies it. Given the recent Robin Hood announcement, I'm biding my time to see what happens. This space is getting competitive (lower fees).
Bottom line, it's easier now than it ever was before. As I told someone else, "Once I finally started, I wanted to kick my own ass for waiting so long."
New GPUs are expensive, but if you just wait, there will be a buttload of cheap, used GPUs for you!
Miners learned from the last crash. There were two types of miners in that crash: those who sold their GPUs at a loss, and those who kept mining and made out like bandits on the upswing. Turns out, cryptocurrency really does mimic the stock market (for now).
We're going to look at Bitcoin (BTC) to explain this. No, miners don't mine BTC. But, BTC is commonly what most coins are exchanged for (it makes up roughly one third of the entire cryptocurrency market). And it's the easiest currency to convert to cash. So, when BTC rises or falls in price, the rest of the market goes with it. That includes all of the coins that GPU miners are actually mining.
In January 2017, when the current mining push started, BTC was worth roughly $900 per coin. It's now worth roughly (as of this post) $12,000 per coin, down from a December high of over $20,000 per coin. So yea, the market "crashed." It's also more than 12x the value it was a year ago, when miners dove in. You think they're going to bail at 12x the value? Son, I've got news for you. This market needs to truly crash and burn for them to bail (and that's where you come in!).
So, there's not going to be a flood of used GPUs from a sudden market crash. Again, they've learned from that mistake. Used GPUs will enter the market when they are no longer profitable for mining, and not before. Dedicated miners have lots of room for expansion. When Volta comes out, they're not selling their Pascal GPUs. They're building new Volta mining rigs alongside the Pascal ones, making money off each of them.
Conclusion/TLDR:
  • Mining is subject to diminishing returns. It gets harder over time on the same hardware.
  • PC gamers joining the market en masse could trigger an apocalypse in terms of difficulty
  • Due to this, it benefits pro miners to spread misinformation to discourage gamers from entering the mining game
  • Casually mining on your existing system is safe, easy, could help you pay for your next upgrade(s), and could also hurt the mining market in general (better availability/pricing on GPUs)
  • No, there's no flood of used Pascal/Polaris/Vega GPUs around the corner, as those are HIGHLY profitable even in a depressed market
Second Conclusion - Why do I (jaykresge) personally care?
Simply put, I'm disgusted by this. I was excited about flipping a few friends from consoles to PC gaming. I'm now seeing a reverse trend. One friend is gaming on an RX 560 waiting for prices to hit sanity. He's running out of patience. Others have bailed.
I view our dormant GPUs as the best weapon against cryptocurrency mining. Destroy it from the inside. It's win-win for most of us. Either we earn enough for more upgrades, or we depress pricing. Something's got to give.
In other words, y'all f*ckers better start mining, because I want Volta to be reasonably priced when it launches so I can get an EVGA x80 Hybrid to go with a G-Sync monitor. And if this doesn't happen, I'm going to be cranky!
Seriously though, thanks for reading.
submitted by jaykresge to pcgaming [link] [comments]

[PLEASE READ] ZClassic > BitcoinPrivate Snapshot/Fork Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) MEGATHREAD 2.0

I’ve been seeing a lot of repeated questions being asked every day so an updated FAQ/Megathread to address all of those questions will be detailed here. If we are missing something, please feel free to let us know and we will add it. We will try to edit this posting as more information becomes available.
Keep in mind the official Bitcoin Private Support portal has now been launched. We have a live chat feature to chat with support, as well as a knowledge base. Please visit the portal at support.btcprivate.org and use the knowledge base’s search function before asking other users.
Snapshot/Fork FAQ
Claiming BTCP Coins
BTCP/ZCL Exchange and Wallet Support
Donations and Contributions program
BTCP Mining
Wallet Troubleshooting
Miscellaneous/BTCP Project Questions
Donate towards the BTCP contribution team, Your donations are 100% voluntary but they are much appreciated!
ZCL: t1gsePJZ6ojJYygj3PWMGJfojPUoMd5AVfU
BTC: 14Xmfm9jf4h1h4RXZBQCFK6i4LWibqWVPu
LTC: LNYzDrUeX6PSecu4sL4eZkuJGaSXnf8GUH
BTCP Related Important Links
For the official list of links from the BTCP Github, refer to the repo.
Just a re-iteration, the BTCP team has launched the support portal offering resources ranging from live support from our teams, as well as a knowledge base that is constantly being updated. https://support.btcprivate.org Again, please feel free to let me know any questions that’s not currently listed above and we will do our best to answer and include it in the megathread.
submitted by BestServerNA to ZClassic [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Mining Power Sees Short-Term Drop as Rainy Season Ends in China

Bitcoin Mining Power Sees Short-Term Drop as Rainy Season Ends in China
https://preview.redd.it/84jk6ssun2w31.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=e11e42aea4b0346f9e2548bc0b0191dd0a966c90
After sustained growth over the past three months, computing power on the bitcoin network has seen a fallback as the summer rainy season trails off in China.
According to data from Poolin, the world’s largest bitcoin mining pool by real time hash rate, bitcoin’s seven-day average computing (or hashing) power has dropped to around 90 exahashes per second (EH/s) since Oct. 24, signaling that some miners have been unplugging from the network. It had previously been estimated that the hash rate would go above the 100 EH/s threshold by the end of 2019
As a result of the power drop, data from mining pool service BTC.com estimates that bitcoin’s difficulty – a measure of how hard it is to compete for mining rewards on the world’s top cryptocurrency by market value – will decrease by 1.5 percent when it’s set to adjust in about seven days.
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty had reached an all-time-high at 13.69 trillion on Oct. 24, following a 38 percent increase since early August. The climb resulted mainly from an increase in miners’ hashing power made possible by the abundant and cheap hydroelectricity in China’s southwestern provinces.
Mining difficulty is designed to adjust itself to go up or down about every 14 days, based on whether the hashing power on the network in the two-week cycle increases or declines, respectively. The Oct. 24 difficulty record followed a jump in the 14-day average hash rate to an all-time-high at 97.90 EH/s.
Poolin’s co-founder Chris Zhu said in a recent WeChat post that one main reason for the fallback over the last week is the gradual end of this year’s rainy season in China. As a result, some hydropower stations in China’s Sichuan province – estimated to account for 50 percent of bitcoin’s global computing power – no longer have the capacity to generate enough energy to support mining activities.
Miners without sufficient hydropower supply would have to shut down their operations or relocate to other provinces like Xinjiang or Inner Mongolio, where mining farms have a more stable, but more expensive, power supply generated from fossil fuel plants.
Xun Zheng, CEO of Hashage, which owns mining facilities in China’s southwestern Sichuan province, echoed Zhu’s comments, adding that even if some may still be able to find a hydropower resource, the cost has gone up from $0.04 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in the summer to around $0.05.
Further, bitcoin’s sudden price drop on Oct. 23 to below $7,500 could have resulted in a large scale of shutdown of older but widely used mining models like the AntMiner S9 made by Bitmain. The S9’s profit break-even price point is between $7,000 to $7,500. However, the price’s significant rebound since last weekend may have stopped that panic.
The fact remains, though, that the profitability of the S9 and other similar modes made by Bitmain’s rival miner makers, is a critical issue for their utility lifespan. And that may soon be affected by the higher winter cost of electricity in China, as well as the scheduled halving of bitcoin mining rewards in May 2020 – before next year’s rainy season.
According to a miner profitability index provided by Poolin and its rival F2pool, at bitcoin’s current price and an electricity cost of $0.05 kWh, the mining profit margin of models like S9 is about 30 percent.
Some, like INBTC, a sister company of Poolin, are currently making efforts to extend the life of the S9 miner by merging two units into one in an attempt to generate a higher ratio of hashing power over electricity consumption. That would allow a higher daily profit margin than would be achieved using two individual units, though it remains to be seen if such a method can be proven to work and adopted on a large scale.
submitted by Rajladumor1 to omgfin [link] [comments]

Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call

As originally published via CoinLive
I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets.
At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time.
Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY
USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread
EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment
Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long?
USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread
The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF.
Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to:
Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating.
While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis.
I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary.
If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year.
Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger
The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled The Paradox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets."
However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass.
Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b.
Interest Rates Set to Rise Further
First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging."
Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png)
Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve.
While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode.
Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png)
Deutsche Bank - End of the Road?
Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states:
"One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%."
There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models.
One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below:
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png)
Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png)
Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences
Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals.
Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports.
Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years.
As the author states:
"I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commodities haven not been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. "
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png)
Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run
It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018.
The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below:
"Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place."
Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course."
It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments.
Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility
Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital.
Anyone Can Be Wrong Datadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone
Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March.
"It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When."
Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line.
On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
submitted by Ivo333 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

It's Never Been So Difficult to Mine Bitcoin; Miners Offload More BTC Major Twitter hack !! + Bitcoin price dumping BITCOIN BREAKING OUT!!  Massive BTC Symmetrical Triangle Points to $50K  Ethereum (ETH) 2.0 Update BITCOIN READY FOR NEXT MOVE???  $20,000 BTC SOON As Mining Difficulty Reaches ALL-TIME HIGH!! Bitcoin Miners Hodl More As BTC Trades Sideways Ahead of Difficulty

The short string of very high highs in Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty is to be broken today according to the current estimates, with miners about to see a difficulty drop instead. Per the current estimations by mining pool BTC.com, the difficulty will decrease by more than 3% to 16.8 T. This would be the first […] Bitcoin’s mining difficulty, as of mid-June, had jumped 15% to 15.78 trillion, an expression of total hashrate (TH), or total estimated mining power. This uptick was reached after the network experienced consecutive downward adjustments since the May 11th divide-by-two. 15.78T marked at the time the fourth-hardest level ever, CoinJournal.net Bitcoin mining difficulty, a measure of how hard it is to compete for block rewards on the network, just set a new record high of 17.35 trillion around 12:00 UTC on Monday. This marks a 9.89% jump Estimated next difficulty adjustment for Bitcoin Cash: 1 day, 18 hours. +330.16% Miners Profit vs -5.14% in BTC adjustment in 2 days, 5 hours Interestingly, the next difficulty adjustment is estimated to be 8.25 trillion. If the estimate turns out to be accurate, it would be a new record for Bitcoin‘s blockchain.

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It's Never Been So Difficult to Mine Bitcoin; Miners Offload More BTC

Just months ago, in March, many thought Bitcoin was on its way out. The cryptocurrency registered a 50% drop in a single 24-hour period in March, falling as global markets imploded. BTC miners ... Bitcoin mining difficulty, which is the measure of how hard it is to compete for mining rewards, just jumped by 9.89%, climbing above 17 T for the first time and reaching 17.35 T. Bitcoin mining difficulty, a measure of how hard it is to compete for block rewards on the network, just set a new record high of 17.35 trillion around 12:00 UTC on Monday. This marks a 9.89% jump ... Bitcoin Technical Analysis & Bitcoin News Today: The Bitcoin mining difficulty is at an all-time high, and the hash rate is also climbing higher. Will the BTC price reach 20k soon as a result of this? In other trending Bitcoin news today: ... estimate the oft-delayed Eth 2.0 will launch by the end of this year. ... a suggested video will automatically play next.