NBA Consensus Picks: Public Bets Percentages | 2020

$DKNG Makes No Sense to Me - Lots of Thoughts

DKNG has seen huge gains this week, mostly focused on Tuesday and today, Thursday. Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news: on Tuesday afternoon a presser with Gary Bettman was announced and on Thursday it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not move back down at all after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t seem to have much impact on other sports betting stocks either.
Both of these events point towards something that seems obviously clear: DraftKings’ stock is hugely overpriced, but seems to keep being driven up just by trading. I think there are cases to be made for short term bull or bear, and for long term bear. I’m already in on the long term bear case with Nov ‘20, Dec ‘20 and Jan ‘21 Puts that have all taken a beating, but debating what the profitable short term play is.
For some context, I used to trade bonds on one of the biggest desks in NY, but moved to be closer to family a while ago and run my own business. My state is not supported by DraftKings, so keep in mind when reading that I am a bit salty towards the company and their ability to sniff out VPNs. Been a long time lurker here, but this is my first post.
The company’s Q1 earnings was pretty enlightening and quite the spin job. I was shocked to see the stock rise that day after what I read to be a pretty poor outcome. Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but seeing no growth in net revenue despite 30% growth in gross revenue means that the company has a growth problem, in other words almost all the revenue growth was driven by giving away free bets and reducing vig. Let’s look further at revenue growth though.
I found it very interesting that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DraftKings, which makes up about 75% of New DraftKings revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not 30% - spin job.
The company also gave us an interesting insight into coronavirus’ impact on their business, maybe unintentionally. At Old DraftKings, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ‘19, that’s big. However, we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, you can see your way to revenue post-March 10th being down 95%. A similar look at SBTech’s drop from +19% to only +3% means revenue post-coronavirus is down at least by half.
Another interesting lens to use in looking at the company is how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced five months ago in December. On slide 22 they compare their valuation to a variety of comps, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to alleviate the fact that the valuation for DraftKings was about 4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. I’m going to ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because adjusting a forward looking multiple based on your own forward looking growth projections is absolute garbage, and instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comps.
At $39 per share, DraftKings has a market cap a bit over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million, giving them a revenue multiple of 33.7x. For those of you that haven’t been around the block a few times, that is outrageously high. The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best comp is probably Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, trades at 7.8x. DraftKings deserves a higher multiple than Flutter given that they are pure-play USA vs Flutter which has a lot of retail european revenue that isn’t high growth, but the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel being a direct comp to DraftKings with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you said DraftKings should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, which is being very generous, that implies a share price of only $13.50.
I know what you’re going to say: “this is all about more states allowing sports betting.” Fine, let’s look at what would need to happen at the state-level to get DraftKings’ current valuation to be reasonable. Going back to the December investor presentation, DraftKings estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3 billion given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. That let’s us back into $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s then give them a 30% bump on that for iGaming. Using the company’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x) that means they need $1.28 billion of revenue, or $831 million more than they currently have. $831 million more revenue needed means they need 14% more of the population to legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none are going to add any population, with PA already online, NY choosing retail-only and the other three being no where close to legalization and widely considered by researchers and lobbyists to be years away. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Don’t get started on nationally legalized sports betting, no one is even pushing for that and it is never going to happen. The SCOTUS repeal of PASPA was as much about taking away the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like allowing or disallowing sports betting as it was about sports betting itself. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but it is going to be a state-by-state slog.
Another thing to consider is what the company might do with its highly valued stock. As we saw with Tesla a few months ago, a big run up in stock price is a great time to do some financial maneuvering. I think there are two very good options for management right now. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DraftKings barely tapped the big institutional investors. A follow-on would be a great way to load up the coffers further - anyone that watched TV in 2015 knows they love to spend money on ads - at a very attractive valuation for the company. The problem with this is that new shares coming in, or the follow-on pricing poorly, could be a big drag on the current share price.
Another option might be a little less obvious, but I think could make a lot of sense for the company: Buy William Hill. William Hill currently has a market cap of about $1.5 billion. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DraftKings previously tried and (largely) failed to enter, are a big threat to DraftKings’ DTC approach in the US and have the tech that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DraftKings could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DraftKings would add a ton of revenue, could cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across geographies and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace WillHill’s outdated tech with their much better apps. The big downside is that the CEOs of the two companies seem to really dislike each other.
One reason that I think the stock could be up so much since the “IPO” is that there are a very small number of liquid shares. Remember that this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, meaning that a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than would be in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could be a huge driver in the stock gain.
Circling back to be three cases for what I think could happen: - Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it - Short term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company - Long term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company, Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint/are eye opening, any blip to the NFL cash cow, NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season delays, lockup ending in October
Just giving my two cents on how I’m looking at this and trading it, and curious to hear any other thoughts or theories on real reasons why the stock is moving and where it is going.
Last thought: for those of you that like DraftKings at this price, you should LOVE Flutter at this price.
submitted by TheGlove2ReignMan to investing [link] [comments]

Opening Day 2020: Crowd Noise Not Included - Happy Opening Day! I made a playlist using only songs from MLB's Walk-Up Music Database.

Opening Day 2020: Crowd Noise Not Included - Happy Opening Day! I made a playlist using only songs from MLB's Walk-Up Music Database.
Opening Day 2020: Crowd Noise Not Included
Last week I was watching an intrasquad game between the Tigers and the Tigers when I heard a song I didn't recognize begin to play when Christin Stewart came to the plate. I still don't know what song it was, but I did stumble across the MLB Walk-Up Music Database.
Opening Day is an incredible day in Detroit, even during a rebuild. Unfortunately, 2020 won't let us have nice things, but I still wanted to put together a playlist to mark the occasion. This year, I decided to use only songs from the MLB Walk-Up Music Database. I didn't expect to find any deep cuts, though there were actually a few (Gangstarr ft. Inspectah Deck - Above the Clouds), but that was alright because Opening Day parties tend to attract a fairly diverse crowd and any playlists for today should prioritize crowd pleasers over indieheads favorites.
Before we get to the tracks, I just want to point out that the database has not been updated to reflect current rosters, so you'll still see Josh Donaldson on the Braves and players that have opted out appear as well.
It's worth noting that I went through the database in alphabetical order by team, so when Archie Bradley and Lewis Brinson both have Jay-Z's Public Service Announcement listed I attributed it to Bradley. This does slightly skew the total number of songs by each team in favor of teams closer to the beginning of the alphabet, but with the exception of a few songs that appeared often there were not as many duplicates as I expected.
This is not every song listed in the database. Nor did I listen to every song in the database. I've got a pretty eclectic taste in music, but a lot of that goes out the window when limiting yourself to a certain catalog of songs. That being said, Latin music is one genre I'll freely admit I'm not altogether too familiar with. When I saw a Latin artist appear over and over, or something like an album cover or track title caught my attention I gave them a listen. You'll definitely find more Latin tracks here (9) than country (0). While I love outlaw and classic country music, you'll find next to none of that in the database and the country I did come across isn't my taste.
My main goal was to make a playlist full of songs that appealed to the widest range of fans. That being said, I did try to keep my opening day crew in mind, and I still had to at least somewhat enjoy the song. Two artists, Post Malone and Travis Scott, appeared quite a bit in the database, but because they don't move the needle for me personally, you won't find them on the playlist. That's not to say that I excluded all trap. I've personally watched Trap Queen get a party started so Erick Fedde's walk-up song makes the cut.

I think a great walk-up song is something that gets the crowd excited, is still somewhat unique, and of course appeals to my personal taste. While not necessarily my favorite songs on the playlist, below are my three favorite choices for walk-up songs:
  1. Kyle Schwarber: Thuggish Ruggish Bone - Bone Thugs-N-Harmony
  2. Steven Brault: Come Down - Anderson .Paak
  3. Shohei Ohtani: Gettin' It - Too $hort

A few observations and highlights:

Two teams don't have any players' walk-up songs making the cut. With the Red Sox, I could have worked in X Gon' Give It To Ya, or Petty's I Won't Back Down, but early on (Boston being one of the first teams I went through) I didn't feel either really fit the playlist I was going for. In retrospect, both probably work. However, this did open it up for me to include the first of a few cheat songs. Opening Day is too fun to leave a team out, so to make up for the lack of Red Sox tunes, and knowing everybody loves MVP Baseball 2005, I decided to include Tessie by Dropkick Murphys.
Other cheat songs: or *'s
  1. Run On by Moby - My original goal was to limit the playlist to a single song for each artist. I didn't make it past Cleveland before I decided to break this rule. So when I got to the White Sox, I already had a J Cole song and a Kanye Song. Luckily, MLB game winner, Ryan Burr, had a great Johnny Cash song, God's Gonna Cut You Down, listed as his walk-up song. Knowing Moby's Run On relies heavily on a sample of this song, I decided to get creative. This was the closest country came to making the playlist.
  2. Back Into Time by Nightmares on Wax - This pick is inspired by Steven Matz. Of course he has Steve Miller's original version of Fly Like an Eagle listed. While the original is a great song, I'm choosing to be a bit selfish here and put on my favorite version. Personally I find this one a bit more fun, and I don't care for the outro at the end of Miller's version.
  3. Da Rockwilder by Method Man and Redman - Here I got the loosest with my rules. Miguel Sano actually has a Redman deep cut Let Da Monkey Out listed in the database. I would have loved to throw this on, but unfortunately it's unavailable on Spotify. There is a live version, it just doesn't sound great in my opinion. Da Rockwilder is Jim Thome coming off the bench to pinch hit.
  4. Bennie and the Jets by Elton John - Ben Zobrist may be the only player to walk up to a song performed by their spouse. No, one of the most versatile players in the league isn't married to Elton John, but rather Julianna Zobrist. Mrs. Zobrist, with Sir Elton's blessing, covers this classic from Goodbye Yellow Brick Road. I didn't include the cover version for a couple of reasons, the nicest being that her version isn't available on Spotify.
  5. Voodoo Child (Slight Return) by Jimi Hendrix - To be fair, James Pazos has the equally great "Voodoo Chile" listed in the database, but no song brought down Comerica Park quite like this spacier, faster version when Joel Zumaya came charging in from the bullpen, and that's the version you'll find here.
  6. Welcome to the Show by J Dilla - Sign me to the Astros because I've cheated again. Pete Alonso has a Cody Johnson track listed by the same name, but it doesn't make sense for this playlist and again country music does not get a call up to the show. I love baseball, but I'm a Tigers fan first. We're coming off a 114-loss season; I saw a chance to work in a Detroit connection and you're just going to have to let me have this one.
  7. Valley of the Dolls by Santigold - Unfortunately, Yan Gomes' actual pick Brooklyn Go Hard by Jay-Z and Santigold isn't available on Spotify. I've tried to keep the cheating to a minimum, but this playlist is seriously lacking in female voices and if I get a chance to work Santigold into a mix then I'm going to take it.

Other notable tracks:
  1. Vivimo Caro by Jose Reyes - Yep, that Jose Reyes. At first I thought Ketel Marte had to be the only All-Star in baseball walking up to a song recorded by a former batting champ. Nope, Acuña also walks up to a Reyes track. Though he has yet to release a complete album, that didn't stop a slew of players from trying to channel the 4x all-star through their walk-up song.
  2. Jalapeño by El Alfa - Gregory Soto and Robinson Cano share the wildest song on this playlist. In fact, it inspired me to install a new Opening Day tradition. Everytime this song comes up at your opening day tailgate do a shot of habanero-infused tequila. Seriously, it's incredibly easy to make and you still have time to get it ready for your socially distanced get together. Take six habaneros and halve them lengthwise. Combine the peppers and a fifth of blanco tequila (Anything is fine, just make sure it's 100% agave - I like Lunazul) in a glass jar and let sit for one hour. Using a funnel, strain the teuila through a fine-mesh sieve back into the bottle.
  3. Rest in Peace (Undertaker Theme) by Jim Johnston - Hansel Robles gets my pick for most creative pick. I love the idea of him coming to the plate to the same track the Undertaker uses to enter the ring.
  4. Going the Distance (From Rocky) by Bill Conti - Does it slow down the playlist? Absolutely. Does a cut from the Rocky score deserve a spot on this playlist? Again, absolutely. I thought about putting Puff Daddy's Victory here, because it samples the Conti piece, but I've had a lot of fun putting together this playlist and this song only adds to that fun.
  5. Above the Clouds by Gang Starr- Pitching in the A.L. last year, Adam Plutko only came to the plate twice, but he wanted everybody in the stands to know he was a hip-hop head. I used to live between two bars in Detroit; one, I now tailgate behind on Opening Day and I used to shoot pool in the other while Gang Starr played on the Jukebox. Easy pick here.
  6. Touch the Sky by Kanye West - With five tracks and a feature, Kanye appears the most on this playlist. Once I decided to break the rules, I fully expected Kanye to end up with a little black ink. I'm choosing to highlight Ian Desmond's walk-up song because he had one of the most important responses to all things 2020. I'm only too happy to find a way to work him into the season.
  7. Chambea by Bad Bunny - By the time I got to the Cubs, I had already seen the name Bad Bunny pop up a handful of times. It would have been a huge disservice to my former fantasy MVP Javier Baez if I chose to continue skipping over the name Bad Bunny. Additionally, Bad Bunny shows up again because my favorite player, and happiest player in baseball Miguel Cabrera, is also a fan and his song goes in by default. My in-laws are Mexican, and after taking the Triple Crown in flip cup (Wins, flip percentage, "whooos") prima Tina will inevitably start requesting Mexican music. This year, I got you Tina. The best part about having Mexican family is Fiesta Tigres or as I like to call it, Opening Day 2: Boogaloo Eléctrico.
  8. Work to Do by The Isley Brothers - Color me surprised, I did not take the Canadian born future hall of famer to be a fan of The Isley Brothers. It's a jam and I've always been a big fan of Votto so this easily makes the mix.
  9. Oh No (What You Got) by Justin Timberlake - I wasn't familiar with this song, but that is an unmistakable Timbaland beat and this Justin Turner pick fits well on an Opening Day playlist.
  10. Word Up by Cameo - Word Up can be fun, but it's mostly included here because I'll use any excuse to bring up how amazing of a person Curtis Granderson is. He will always be a Tigers favorite, and by all accounts he's well loved by both New York fanbases, surely a rare feat.
  11. Ignition Remix by R. Kelly - The argument of separating the man from the music is always interesting. As far as I know, though I haven't followed it that closely, R. Kelly has not been convicted of the sexual crimes which he has been accused. If I'm wrong, feel free to correct me. What he's been accused of is fucking disgusting, but for now, this Kyle McGrath pick makes the list. In light of his recent anti-semitic social media posts, this is probably a good time to point out that Ice Cube's Friday also appears on the playlist courtesy of Taijuan Walker.
  12. Got to Give it Up (Pt. 1) by Marvin Gaye - If you're having a party and this song isn't on your playlist are you really having a party? Delino DeShields and his teammate Joey Gallo really help this playlist take shape with this track and three others (Pony, No Diggity, Hip Hop Hooray). All four are the exact type of song you want for a crowd pleasing Opening Day playlist.
  13. Go Head by Gucci Mane - In my first Detroit loft, my upstairs neighbor would come home, crank up the Gucci Mane and throw coins all over her floomy ceiling. In the mornings she would rip farts so loud they still echo in my ears. This one's for you. Sadly, this was Gordon Beckham's biggest hit in 2019.
  14. K.R.I.T. Here by Big K.R.I.T. - I did not expect to see my favorite song of 2019 show up in the database, so this Brian Goodwin selection definitely qualifies as notable for me.
  15. Rubber Band Man by T.I. - This was the hardest choice to make; do I choose between the radio edit or the album version with the over one-minute long outro. Where Joe Kelly's pick, Snoop's Lay Low, gets a pass thanks to the rule that states you can never have enough Nate Dogg hooks on a playlist, this outro skit is too long and therefore the radio edit finds its way onto the playlist.
  16. Tops Drop by Fat Pat - I don't even have to look it up; if Robbie Grossman didn't grow up in Texas I'll eat my cleat.
  17. Down for My Niggaz by C-Murder - When Dalton Pompey steps to the plate at Rogers Centre, I'm going to assume they play the instrumental. No way there is a section of this song that is crowd friendly. Works like magic for me in the Nemo's parking lot.
  18. Stone Love by Pepper - Jordan Luplow has two songs listed in the database, this one, and a Wiz Khalifa track. Luplow can come smoke at my tailgate anytime. Likewise, including 311 and Rebelution might blow the cover for some in my crew, but getting blowed is another great American pastime.
  19. Icky Thump by White Stripes - In Detroit, Alex Avila walked up to The Black Keys' I Got Mine, so he clearly has an affinity for late 2000s blues rock. Despite his best efforts, it seems Jack White cannot escape being forever tied to his rock rivals from Ohio. Forever a fan favorite, maybe Avila just misses Detroit, so I'm a big fan of the White Stripes pick here.
  20. Bridge Burning by Foo Fighters - I'd be remiss if I didn't mention my cousin James who puts together our entire opening day party. He's a huge Foo Fighters fan, so this one is for you cuzzo. Many thanks to Dan Otero.
  21. Enter Sandman by Metallica - Thanks to Mariano Rivera, Enter Sandman is forever an iconic baseball song and thus a great song for this playlist. Here it shows up courtesy of Danny Salazar.
  22. Brother Louie by Stories - Luis Guillorme gets a ton of credit for picking a song that works in his name. Either that or he's a huge Louis C.K. fan. I bet this one is a lot of fun at Citi Field.
  23. We Will Rock You by Queen, Breathe by The Prodigy, Killing in the Name by Rage Against the Machine - Liam Hendriks walks up to a mashup of these three with some Skrillex added just for fun. Nobody bats a 1.000, but 3/4 ain't bad.

Back of the card stats

In total there are 158 songs ready to soundtrack more than 10 hours of your Opening Day.
I kept the genres simple:
Genre Number of Songs
Electronic 6
Latin 9
Other 2
R&B 14
Rap 80
Reggae 6
Rock 41

I know you’re curious, I counted Ohtani as a pitcher.
I've read that some hitters get so in the zone that they really don't pay attention to their walk-up music. Perhaps this explains the greater number of pitchers that appeared in the database. They come to the plate far less, sometimes just a handful of times, and therefore give a lot of thought to their walk-up music.
Least unique songs: These songs that made the playlist roster appeared in the database for multiple players. Players not listed first were excluded from the by position data.
Song Players
Thunderstruck by AC/DC Mark Melancon, AJ Minter, Tim Melville, Caleb Smith
Return of the Mack by Mark Morrison Merrill Kelly, Mark Morrison, Aaron Hicks, Adam Eaton
Going Bad by Meek Mill Christin Stewart, Brandon Crawford, Patrick Corbin
Chambea by Bad Bunny Javier Baez, Joe Jiménez, Pablo Sandoval
Fireman by Lil Wayne Josh James, Kenyan Middleton, Matt Bush
God's Plan by Drake Amir Garrett, Miguel Rojas, Boog Powell
Jalapeño by El Alfa Gregory Soto, Robinson Cano, Victor Robles
Cochise by Audioslave Anthony Swarzak, Zack Weiss, Zack Wheeler: It's a Zack thing.
No Diggity by Blackstreet Joey Gallo, Adam Eaton
Alive (Nightmare) by Kid Cudi and Ratatat Peter Lambert, Adam Ottavino
Can't Stop by Red Hot Chili Peppers TJ McFarland, Alex Wood
Vivimo Caro by Jose Reyes Ketel Marte, Amed Rosario
E.I. by Nelly Max Muncy, Devin Williams
Attention Span by Rebelution Rhys Hoskins, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Middle Child by J. Cole Max Fried, Jace Fry: If only old Pete Fries were still around.
What's My Name by Snoop Dogg Scott Alexander, Jay Guerra
Grindin' by Clipse Jake Cave, Jesse Chavez
'Till I Collapse by Eminem Sam Howard, Justin Verlander
Public Service Announcement by Jay-Z Archie Bradley, Lewis Brinson
Shut Up by Trick Daddy Yonder Alonso, Manny Machado
Yo Le Llego by J Balvin Yonathan Daza, Orlando Arcia
Humble by Kendrick Lamar Tyler Olson, Robert Gsellman
Money in the Grave by Drake Jake Bauers, Robinson Cano
For Whom the Bell Tolls by Metallica Ryan Tepera, Sean Doolittle
Seven Nation Army by White Stripes Seunghwan Oh, Stephen Strasburg
Immigrant Song by Led Zeppelin Noah Syndergaard, Will Myers
Opening Day Roster: With only two games on the docket I wanted to add one more. Below are the rosters for the Jukebox Heroes and the Bad Hop Boppers. The Jukebox heroes are made up of players that had my favorite song at each position while the BHP roster has the best remaining player at each position. Naturally, (First base) I had to make the Jukebox Heroes first to at least keep the rosters competitive. This is why you'll find Scherzer on the favorite song roster despite being the best pitcher in the database. Lucky for the home team, I'm an Outkast fan. I also excluded players that weren't regulars, had a negative war, or were now playing in Korea. This is why you won't find Josh Rojas, and Adam Jones patrolling the outfield next to Brian Goodwin. And this is why you won't see Khris Davis penciled in at the DH. In the end, this really helped balance the rosters; especially considering the noticeable drop off in arm talent once Scherzer is removed from the pool. Sneaking Schwarber in behind the dish didn't hurt either. He played one game there in 2019, and I'll use him here to play the first game of 2020.

Position Jukebox Heroes VS Bad Hop Boppers
P Max Scherzer Max Fried
C Kyle Schwarber Mitch Garver
1B Brandon Belt Pete Alonso
2B Ryan McMahon Max Muncy
3B Josh Donaldson Miguel Sano
SS Dansby Swanson Francisco Lindor
LF Tommy Pham Joey Gallo
CF Delino DeShields Ketel Marte
RF Brian Goodwin Bryce Harper
DH Justin Turner Trevor Story
Who you got?
Have a fantastic Opening Day! I can't believe baseball is actually here.
submitted by portopinto to baseball [link] [comments]

What do you think of my DD on DraftKings (DKNG)?

DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way.
The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further.
I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half.
Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons.
At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50.
No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state.
Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
  1. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
  2. The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
  1. Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
  2. Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
  3. Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
submitted by lawgrads to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]

Part 2/3 My Introduction to a Professional Sports Betting Syndicate

PART 2/3
The train ride home from that meeting I was excited and nervous. I played out every possible scenario of this arrangement. My first concern was what would happen if my employer found out. It definitely didn’t benefit George or me telling anyone about this so it wasn’t really a loose lips sink ships concern but rather my company noticing a pattern of delays on injury reporting, our company kept logs and tested speed but usually I was the one doing that and nobody ever checked them, but would that change if delays started to happen regularly? I figured I could just play dumb if it ever came up, “I’m sending them out as fast as I can boss, it was really busy”. These are convos I was playing back n forth in my head. I even thought about the possibility of this being some sort of loyalty test from my boss. It was unlikely but after all George and him went way back, my boss operated a sportsbook in Costa Rica back in the day and George was a big thorn in his side as he was killing bookies in Costa Rica during that time.
My second concern was about money which during the meeting he glossed over briefly. To me money isn’t everything, it’s the only motherfucking thing that matters. So the terms he explained to me was that I would be paid a flat rate only for each accurate report for players listed as probable. I would get 15% for each accurate report on any questionable players, 25% on accurate reports on players that were doubtful and finally when I reported a player being OUT and he was in fact out for that game I would get 35%. This was for key players and starters only. He said it would be based on the following wager amounts of each report, if I reported a player questionable he’d be betting $5,000, $7,500 for Doubtful and $10,000 for out, $200 flat rate for players reported probable. Now a few things I have to mention, me reporting this information to him doesn’t guarantee that the team loses, especially if I’m reporting something along the lines of BK-F-[Joe Harris]-Lower Leg-Doubtful, it didn’t matter if Brooklyn lost or didn’t cover I would be getting paid as long as the information was accurate. If I reported a player questionable or doubtful and he ended up playing I didn’t get paid. I know some of you might be thinking the deal sounds awesome and it did. I could report a player OUT and if he didn’t play I could get $3,500 which even thinking about it now is insane.
One thing I learned at a young age is you never accept the first offer you receive, so as good of a deal as it sounded and the thought of how much money I could be making was mind blowing I began to think about his earning potential. He did his best to convey that nothing was certain and that it’s really not too often a key player is scratched from the lineup, blah blah etc. I imagined George didn’t become a successful sports bettor by giving everyone great deals. I put myself in his shoes and started to think about what I’d do if I had access to thousands of sports book accounts, a capable team and the ability to bet while getting injury info before books adjusted lines. Having this injury information didn’t mean an automatic win George made sure to hammer that fact home to me. George didn’t tell me this but what I realized is it didn’t matter who won or lost for George because he wasn’t actually risking anything. I’ll explain: Let’s say NBA Phoenix vs Utah and Utah is -5, I get a ping -PHO-G-[Devin Booker]-Left Foot-OUT and I send it to George and what I assume his team did was they would program his software to bet Utah -5 at every book that has it listed at -5 or better. His automated bet software allows him to place bets on hundreds if not thousands of different accounts within 10 seconds, it even auto-confirms the username and password.
He now has X amount of money on Utah-5 who is playing Phoenix who is without their best player. While George and his team are finishing up pounding Utah I’m likely just hitting send at work reporting the Devin Booker injury status, within seconds books are now moving the Utah line as the public is also reacting to this news. Within a couple minutes it is widely known Booker is doubtful. Let’s say the line eventually gets up from -5 to Utah -8 which would be likely in this case. Most of you can guess what George and his team does then, they come back and bet Phoenix +8 for the same amount of money they bet Utah-5, Hence the no risk part, he now just sits back and hopes for the game to land on 6 or 7(Utah -5 & Phoenix +8). Of course there is no guarantee Utah would win by exactly 6 or 7 for him to cash both sides but even a Utah win by 5 and 8 would be great considering he’s only risking juice.
It’s been a couple days since the meeting and it’s all I’ve been thinking about. It’s not like I can really ask anyone for advice either, the only people that can know about this is myself and George and his team. A few things I realized was he would definitely be betting more than $5,000 to $10,000 per injury report but my % was based on those figures he said. I understood not every player I would be reporting would result in a big line move but then again I’d only be reporting key players and starters. Also if a player is reported out for 3 or 4 days it’s not like I’d be getting paid to report him being out each night. It was really just players that played in their previous game and their status has changed before the next game. I figured I would still make a ton of money but it all depended on players getting hurt and missing games. Tough to say how many times this would occur, could be 0 or 10 in a week,
Another big thing I was hung up on is the morality of it all. I knew I wouldn't be doing anything illegal but it was definitely straddling the fence between right and wrong. It’s also important to note that at this time in my life this was one of my first real jobs, you know the ones that have dental and eye insurance. Prior to this I was an illegal street bookie, among other things, all illegal. No shocker this eventually led me to prison and I had only been out of prison for about 2 years before I started working for this company so staying on the straight n narrow was important not just for me but for family members, I could finally answer questions about what exactly I do for a living. It was a good feeling and here I was contemplating jeopardizing it all. Or at least that’s what I was thinking at the time.
Exactly one week after the meeting I get a text message from a number I don’t have saved, (I’m paraphrasing, it was a long time ago) but the text read “Hey I work for George, he told me to connect with you to set up messenger apps and establish lines of communication,”. My anxiety immediately spiked. I haven’t even confirmed with George that I’m officially in. So I responded with “Ok, sounds good but first could you pass along to George that I have a few questions before getting started”, No response. I realized I gave George my number but didn’t get his number so all I had was the number from this text message and didn’t even have a name. I’m thinking I just blew this whole opportunity which looking back now was stupid of me to think but this whole process was just nerve racking, a lot of potential money on the line for everyone involved and the thought of going from no responsibility at work and just bullshitting around to having to be on point and super focused as id be playing a major role in the betting syndicate. Not to mention I still had questions and would like to negotiate and counter his offer. Also it’s worth noting that a customer asking me for a deal on an ounce and me saying no was the full extent of all my previous experience negotiating deals.
It’s now a few days since I got that text and roughly 10 or 12 days since the conference. A small part of me was hoping he had a change of mind and doesn’t want to do it or something came up. The other part of me wanted to make money and to become a part of his team.
My shift at work was 2pm - 10pm and after 5pm I was the only one working, except on weekends when it was busy there were two of us. It was a weekday night right as I was finishing up work, I got a call from a private number, I normally don’t answer private or unknown numbers but since the conference I started answering them. Me: Hello George: “What’s up? Are we going forward or what? Mario said you had some questions, what you don’t like money (fake lol) Me: George! I would’ve reached out sooner but didn’t have a number for you. Something I realized down the road was George knew that I was the night employee, NBA games start between 7pm -10pm at least on weekdays, so what good would an employee that works 8am to 2pm do for him, especially when breaking injury news is typically announced the hour leading up to tip-off. He also knew there’s only one employee after 5pm on weekdays.
I realized quickly that I wasn’t going to be fun and games working with friends, this was strictly business and everything was so serious, of course I realize now why. That phone call was the first of a series of phone calls back n forth over the next day or 2. As I suspected the terms he initially quoted were low and he eventually agreed to an increase on the doubtful and out percentages only. We ultimately reached an agreement and we planned that the next 3 days would be when we start running some trial tests. He said Mario would call me to set up the messenger apps and explain where to send the information, I just had to make sure it got to them accurately and fast. It all hit me, there is no turning back now, I’m all-in with this and looking back on it now, this decision alone is the turning point in my professional career and would ultimately set off a chain of events that led to shit I just never imagined.
To Be Continued....
Will likely just release Part 3 later today because I’m going away for the weekend.
submitted by bettingnetwork to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

KnB NBA Sim 2019-20 Season

Welcome old readers and welcome new readers. I'm glad to start this new sim. I know it can sometimes be a lot of reading but I hope you are all interested. This first year is the year before the Uncrowned Kings are drafted. I can't wait to hear your reactions and thoughts. I love reading your comments, so fire away.
2019-2020 Season Summary Standings Eastern Conference
  1. Toronto Raptors (64-18)
  2. Boston Celtics (61-21)
  3. Philadelphia 76ers (56-26)
  4. Miami Heat (53-29)
  5. Milwaukee Bucks (51-31)
  6. Cleveland Cavaliers (46-36)
  7. Orlando Magic (40-42)
  8. Indiana Pacers (39-43)
  9. Atlanta Hawks (38-44)
  10. New York Knicks (36-46)
  11. Chicago Bulls (31-51)
  12. Washington Wizards (31-51)
  13. Charlotte Hornets (29-53)
  14. Brooklyn Nets (27-55)
  15. Detroit Pistons (17-65)
Western Conference
  1. Houston Rockets (60-22)
  2. Los Angeles Clippers (55-27)
  3. Los Angeles Lakers (54-28)
  4. Denver Nuggets (48-34)
  5. Utah Jazz (48-34)
  6. Sacramento Kings (43-39)
  7. San Antonio Spurs (42-40)
  8. Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
  9. Dallas Mavericks (39-43)
  10. Portland Trailblazers (34-48)
  11. New Orleans Pelicans (34-48)
  12. Phoenix Suns (33-49)
  13. Oklahoma City Thunder (32-50)
  14. Memphis Grizzlies (25-57)
  15. Golden State Warriors (22-60)
League Leaders
Points: Trae Young (30.5) Rebounds: Rudy Gobert (14.2) Assists: Lebron James (9.5)
Goal Percentage: Mason Plumlee (60.8%) Three Point Percentage: Davis Bertans (45.1%)
Free Throw Percentage: Danilo Gallinari: (94.1%)
Blocks: Mitchell Robinson (2.7)
Steals: Marcus Smart (2.8)
Minutes: Damian Lillard (37.5)
PER: Trae Young: (26.8)
Estimated Wins Added: Trae Young: (17.6)
Win Shares/48 min: Kawhi Leonard (.260)
Offensive Win Shares: James Harden (11.9)
Defensive Win Shares: Bam Adebayo (5.4)
Win Shares: Kawhi Leonard (14.9)
Award Winners
MVP: Kawhi Leonard (LAC)
24.2 pts, 6.6 trb, 5.2 ast
DPOY: Bam Adebayo (MIA)
11.3 trb, 1.6 blk, 2.4 stl
6MOY: Enes Kanter (BOS)
12.6 pts, 8.7 trb, 0.9 ast
MIP: Fred VanVleet (TOR)
18.9 pts, 3.1 trb, 7.9 ast
ROY: Tyler Herro (MIA)
15.8 pts, 4.4 trb, 1.5 ast
All-League Teams
First Team
Kawhi Leonard (LAC)
James Harden (HOU)
Trae Young (ATL)
Russell Westbrook (HOU)
LeBron James (LAL)
Second Team
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
Luka Doncic (DAL)
Anthony Davis (LAL)
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)
Jimmy Butler (MIA)
Third Team
Domantas Sabonis (IND)
Damian Lillard (POR)
Pascal Siakam (TOR)
Joel Embiid (PHI)
Ben Simmons (PHI)
All-Defensive Teams
First Team
Bam Adebayo (MIA)
Jonathan Isaac (ORL)
Rudy Gobert (UTA)
Robert Covington (HOU)
Serge Ibaka (TOR)
Second Team
Anthony Davis (LAL)
Kawhi Leonard (LAC)
Joel Embiid (PHI)
Clint Capela (ATL)
Ben Simmons (PHI)
Third Team
Marcus Smart (BOS)
Jarrett Allen (BKN)
JaVale McGee (LAL)
Andre Drummond (CLE)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
All-Rookie Team
Tyler Herro (MIA)
Ja Morant (MEM)
Jaxson Hayes (NOP)
Sekou Doumbouya (DET)
R.J. Barrett (IND)
Playoffs
First Round
HOU over MIN in 5 games
DEN over UTA in 7 games
LAL over SAC in 4 games
LAC over SAS in 5 games
TOR over IND in 5 games
MIA over MIL in 6 games
CLE over PHI in 5 games
BOS over ORL in 5 games
Conference Semi-Finals
HOU over DEN in 6 games LAL over LAC in 6 games
TOR over MIA in 4 games
BOS over CLE in 5 games
Conference Finals HOU over LAL in 7 games
BOS over TOR in 5 games
Finals HOU over BOS in 7 games
Finals MVP: Russell Westbrook (HOU)
24.1 pts, 8.0 trb, 9.0 ast
NBA Draft Lottery
Pre-Lottery Positions
  1. DET
  2. GSW
  3. MEM
  4. MIN (from BRK)
  5. CHA
  6. CHI
  7. WAS
  8. OKC
  9. PHX
  10. POR
  11. NOP
  12. NYK
  13. ATL
  14. DAL
Post-Lottery Positions
  1. MIN
  2. CHI
  3. WAS
  4. POR
  5. DET
  6. GSW
  7. MEM
  8. CHA
  9. OKC
  10. PHX
  11. NOP
  12. NYK
  13. ATL
  14. DAL
Pre-Draft Reviews
(Name/Position/Age-(Overall/Potential)
Teppei Kiyoshi/FC/18-(64/87)
There is little doubt as to why Kiyoshi is rated as the best player in the 2020 Draft. He can rebound well and has tremendous grip strength as reports have told us. He is able to score in the paint and can dominate down low but his greatest strength is his ability to pass as a big man. He can drop dimes any day of the week for any team. However, Minnesota has the first pick but they already have Karl Anthony-Towns. This could lead to some problems as Kiyoshi needs to be in the paint to be largely effective as he can’t shoot outside. A simple fix is to have KAT space the floor but either way, Minnesota has a tough decision to make.
Makoto Hanamiya/G/18-(66/82) Makoto is rated as the best player in the draft and he could easily start contributing to any team, right away. He has a great teardrop floater. He also has great instincts and plays nasty defense. That is both a compliment and a possible insult as he has received many accusations of purposely injuring players before and playing dirty. Any team that drafts him runs the risk of getting bad publicity but if they can handle that, he will contribute nicely to any team.
Kotarō Hayama/G/18-(63/83)
Hayama is easily the flashiest player in the draft this year. He isn’t a flyer who will hammer down dunks but he dazzles crowds in any arena that he plays in. He has a handle that can bruise anyone’s ankles and he is lighting quick. He can blow by anyone with just a simple crossover and once he gets to the rim, he’s gonna finish the shot. If he can improve his passing, he could be a deadly point guard in the future.
Reo Mibuchi/SG/18-(61/81)
Mibuchi is a pure sharpshooter and there is nothing else to say about it. He is lights out. He’ll likely be a top 3 shooter in the league straight out of the draft. His form is a beauty and he is a smart player when it comes to when he wants to shoot. He can expertly draw fouls and finish the four point plays with ease. The only thing teams are worried about is, is it worth it to draft a guy who only shoots threes, this high up in the draft. The answer is yes. You’ll be hard pressed to find another shooter like him.
Eikichi Nebuya/C/18-(57/81)
Nebuya is often forgotten about when it comes to the five prospects known as the “Uncrowned Kings”. However, he is a beast down low and he can bully anyone in the paint with his unrivaled strength. However, he has very little finesse and this can lead to his game being exploited. Despite this, he will still be a top 5 pick in the draft and if he develops well, there is no reason to believe that he can’t be just as good as the others.
Draft Night
  1. Minnesota Timberwolves-Teppei Kiyoshi/FC/18-(64/87)
  2. Chicago Bulls-Kotarō Hayama/G/18-(63/83)
  3. Washington Wizards-Makoto Hanamiya/G/18-(66/82)
  4. Portland Trailblazers-Eikichi Nebuya/C/18-(57/81)
  5. Detroit Pistons-Reo Mibuchi/SG/18-(61/81)
Notable Signings
The Lakers re-signed Anthony Davis for $30.45M/year through 2024.
The Raptors re-signed Serge Ibaka for $17.25M/year through 2025.
The Raptors re-signed Fred VanVleet for $17.40M/year through 2024.
The Clippers re-signed Marcus Morris for $20.00M/year through 2021.
The Clippers re-signed Montrezl Harrell for $18.55M/year through 2024.
The Hawks signed Brandon Ingram for $25.80M/year through 2022.
Season Previews
Minnesota Timberwolves: The T-Wolves have immediately lucked out and drafted a game changing center in Teppei Kiyoshi. With the newest acquisition on their team, the Timberwolves are poised to make a championship run as they are ranked 3rd in the NBA and 2nd in the West. They have a team that can go deep in the playoffs and it really depends on what kind of production that they can get out of their rookie and out of their guards.
Washington Wizards: After a few years of obscurity, the Wizards are finally back where they want to be. They have Hanamiya who is poised to have an amazing season and they are ranked 9th in the NBA, coming right back to the playoffs after having missed them last year. He is ranked as the best rookie in the league and it isn’t hard to see why. After only a few months of NBA practices, it’s easy to see that he is becoming much more comfortable with the pace of play in the NBA. Fellow Japanese youngster, Rui Hachimura says that “Makoto gives off an intense and disturbing vibe sometimes.” Other than that, it’s hard to see many issues with the Wizards.
Chicago Bulls: The Bulls are another team that have completely changed their fortune with just one draft pick. Picking Hayama was no doubt a great choice as he complements Lavine greatly. They both have an explosive first step and they will be a challenge for any backcourt to contain. There have been reports that he is still struggling getting used to the pace of the NBA game so we may see Coby White get more minutes at PG but there is no doubt that Hayama is going to be a great point guard. The Bulls are currently ranked 12th in the NBA, ready to compete for a playoff spot.
Portland Trailblazers: Despite being rated as the worst of the Uncrowned Kings, Nebuya was picked 4th and he has also inched his way into the starting lineup of the Trailblazers. This comes from a report that also says that Hassan Whiteside and Jusuf Nurkic will also be starting. This means a three center lineup and none of them can space the floor. All I can say to the Trailblazers is “What are you doing?” They are continually getting older and instead of drafting a floor-spacing shooting guard like Mibuchi, they draft an undersized (height-wise) center who can’t shoot. They better hope this experiment works or the fans will call for the GM’s head. They are currently ranked 20th in the NBA, trying to compete for a fringe spot in the playoffs.
Detroit Pistons: Even after having the worst record of the 2019-20 season, the Pistons still only got the 5th pick. Luckily, they got a star in Reo Mibuchi who will energize the Detroit crowd. Unluckily, the Pistons are still ranked dead last in the NBA. Their best bet is to trade Blake Griffin, build around Doumbouya and Mibuchi, and hope that there is a strong draft next year. There have been reports of some more phenomenal players out of Japan for next year's draft but they haven’t been scouted yet so these could just be rumors. The Pistons better hope they aren’t, however.
Ratings
Makoto Hanamiya: 69(+3)/84(+2)
Teppei Kiyoshi: 67(+3)/82(-5)
Reo Mibuchi: 64(+3)/80(-1)
Kotarō Hayama: 62(-1)/84(+1)
Eikichi Nebuya: 57/79(-2)
Huge thanks to all of you for reading. I’m excited to do another sim, I plan on finishing this one completely since it is summer and I have a lot of time. For next year's draft, it will have the GoM, Kagami, Kuroko, Himuro, and Haizaki. Thanks to all of you for reading. Hope to have the next part out soon. Let me know any thoughts or suggestions in the comments. I also have the link for the json file of the league if any of you want to import it into BBGM yourselves.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/nd4tww6ncpyilew/BBGM_Kuroko_No_Basket_Reddit_Sim_2021_preseason.json?dl=0
submitted by KRobb36 to KurokosBasketball [link] [comments]

What do you think of my commentary on DraftKings (DKNG)?

DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way.
The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further.
I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half.
Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons.
At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50.
No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state.
Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
  1. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
  2. The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
  1. Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
  2. Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
  3. Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
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Bankroll Management Part II

Bankroll Management – Part II
Thanks for all the feedback yesterday on Part I. Continuing our journey through bankroll management, now is a good time to discuss the Kelly Criterion in further detail.
The Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy that will maximum median wealth expectation over the long term. Betting more than the Kelly Criterion suggests will lead you to suboptimal results. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth and was formulated by scientists John L. Kelly and Claude Shannon in 1956.
Calculating Kelly
We have a workbook to calculate the Kelly Criterion yourself. For American odds, the following formulas are used:
Kelly formula
For example, if you are getting +200 on a bet but your winning percentage is 40%, your Kelly Bet Allocation would be calculated as:
Kelly allocation example
And if you’re getting -250 on a bet that you win 75% of the time, your Kelly Bet Allocation would be calculated as:
‍Kelly allocation example 2
What Happens If We Bet More Than the Kelly Criterion?
In the example introduced in Part I (1,000 bets, -110 odds with a true 55.0% win probability), the Kelly Criterion states that a bet of 5.5% of your bankroll would maximize wealth expectation in the long run.
What happens if you want to bet more than the Kelly Criterion? Well, if you bet 1.5x Kelly Criterion (or 8.25%), 66% of the time you will wind up worse off than if you bet 1.0x Kelly (Full Kelly). Starting with a bankroll of $1,000, the distribution of potential outcomes based on bet size is displayed below.
Range of different outcomes based on Kelly multiples
After 10,000 bets, you will be worse off 90.6% of the time.

Bet Size Probability of being worse off than 1.00X Kelly
1.00x Kelly -
1.25x Kelly 74.3%
1.50x Kelly 90.6%
1.75x Kelly 97.6%
2.00x Kelly 99.6%
As the number of wagers grows, the less likely it is to have an outcome where betting more than 1.0x Kelly would yield better returns.
Phrased differently, over a 10,000-game sample size, you would only be better off betting 1.5x Kelly if you exceed your true win percentage and win at least 55.7% of your bets. The likelihood of this happening (if your true win % is 55.0%) is approximately 9% and shrinks as you increase your sample size.
In the long run, your winning percentage converges to the true win probability, which is the median of the distribution of potential outcomes. As a result, the Kelly Criterion is determined as the percent of bankroll wagered to maximize median wealth in the long run. Unless you’re not planning to bet for very long, there’s no reason to wager more than the Kelly Criterion.
Key Assumption
The Kelly Criterion relies on one very important assumption: that you know your true win probability with absolute certainty.
In a casino game like blackjack or craps, the true probability of an outcome is known (assuming fair dice/deck). We know that the probability of rolling a 12 (2 sixes) in craps is 1/36.
Dice outcome chart
The challenge when betting sports: When someone says that the Dodgers have a 67.0% probability of beating the Diamondbacks, that person is estimating this probability using historical data and mathematical models. There is no way of knowing with absolute certainty what the win probability is for the Dodgers. This presents a challenge because it leaves you vulnerable to overbetting.
Uncertainty of True Winning Percentage
Due to the uncertainty around true win probability, many people argue that a Full Kelly betting strategy is too aggressive. We tend to agree.
Let’s assume that you have an NBA model that you believe predicts every regular season game (1,230 games) against the spread at a 55.0% winning percentage (highly unlikely that you can find this much value in every game, but let’s use this as a simple example). You start with $1,000 and bet all 1,230 games at Full Kelly allocation of 5.5% of your bankroll. Let’s say, however, that you were slightly overconfident in your model, and the actual true win probability is 54.0% (still very good). Despite having a winning model, your Full Kelly bet allocation should be only 3.4%, and you have therefore been betting the equivalent of 1.62x Kelly.
How does overbetting affect your expected results? We’ve summarized the results below.
Strategy Comparison
You have a situation here where, despite having a winning model, you have a higher chance of losing money because of an imprecise estimate of your winning percentage. Therefore, we generally suggest that you either 1) estimate your winning percentage more conservatively, or 2) practice using a “Fractional Kelly” approach towards bankroll management.
Fractional Kelly Betting
Fractional Kelly betting is just as it sounds – betting a fraction of what the Kelly Criterion suggests as optimal. Below we’ve plotted various bet allocations for your NBA model with a 54% true win percentage.
Risk Return Profile of Kelly Multiples
Yes, there is always a chance of losing money. However, we want to only accept that risk if we are being fairly compensated with the expectation of making money. If you’re not receiving incremental returns, you should not take on more risk.
For instance, let’s compare the bankroll management strategies of 0.5x Kelly betting vs 1.5x Kelly betting. Both strategies have a median expected final bankroll of ~$1,600. By betting 0.5x Kelly, however your chances of losing 20% or more of your bankroll are only 10%, while betting 1.5x Kelly would result in you losing 20% or more of your bankroll around 33% of the time. Therefore, the 1.5x Kelly betting strategy is dominated and is never recommended.
Let’s borrow a term from modern portfolio theory and say only bet allocations between zero and Full Kelly are on the efficient frontier. Therefore, these are the only bankroll management strategies that should be considered. We’ve plotted the efficient frontier of bet allocations below.
Efficient Frontier of Betting Allocations
Personal Risk Appetite
It’s worth noting that even with a precise estimate of true winning percentage, using a Full Kelly bankroll management system might be too aggressive for your personal preferences. That’s fine – your bankroll management system should be tailored to your desired to risk-return profile, and everything at or below a Full Kelly strategy is a valid bankroll management strategy.
Let’s say that you’re risk averse, and your objective is to minimize the chances of losing 20% of your bankroll. You decide that you don’t want greater than a 5% chance of losing 20%, so you can choose a 0.25x Kelly Fraction as your desired bankroll management strategy.
Simultaneous Wagers
The above calculations assume that all bets are independent of one another and that no bets are occurring simultaneously. If you have simultaneously occurring wagers, such as betting on the Lakers and the Patriots at the same time, you should consider betting a little less than the Kelly Criterion suggests.
Example: Consider a situation in which you have 20 bets that you want to bet 5% of your bankroll on. If you bet them all simultaneously and lose all 20 bets (hey, it can happen!), you’ve lost your entire bankroll. If those wagers had happened sequentially, the Kelly Criterion would have told you to bet less money after each loss and you still would have 36% of your bankroll remaining.
The calculations are little trickier and beyond the scope of this article. For further reading, you can check out “Algorithms for optimal allocation of bets on many simultaneous events” by Chris Whitrow. (Reader beware, unless you have a good handle on multivariable calculus, the paper may seem like a foreign language.)
What If I Don’t Know My Winning Percentage?
This Kelly Criterion discussion builds the framework around the upper bound of your bet sizing with a known winning percentage. If you don’t have a reasonable estimate of your winning percentage on a particular bet, I urge you to be very conservative with your bet size. Until you are confident in your estimated win percentage of a bet, I would suggest limiting your bet size to 0.5% to 1.0% of your bankroll.

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Opening Day 2020: Crowd Noise Not Included - Happy Opening Day! I made a playlist using only songs from MLB's Walk-Up Music Database.

Opening Day 2020: Crowd Noise Not Included
Last week I was watching an intrasquad game between the Tigers and the Tigers when I heard a song I didn't recognize begin to play when Christin Stewart came to the plate. I still don't know what song it was, but I did stumble across the MLB Walk-Up Music Database.
Opening Day is an incredible day in Detroit, even during a rebuild. Unfortunately, 2020 won't let us have nice things, but I still wanted to put together a playlist to mark the occasion. This year, I decided to use only songs from the MLB Walk-Up Music Database. I didn't expect to find any deep cuts, though there were actually a few (Gangstarr ft. Inspectah Deck - Above the Clouds), but that was alright because Opening Day parties tend to attract a fairly diverse crowd and any playlists for today should prioritize crowd pleasers over indieheads favorites.
Before we get to the tracks, I just want to point out that the database has not been updated to reflect current rosters, so you'll still see Josh Donaldson on the Braves and players that have opted out appear as well.
It's worth noting that I went through the database in alphabetical order by team, so when Archie Bradley and Lewis Brinson both have Jay-Z's Public Service Announcement listed I attributed it to Bradley. This does slightly skew the total number of songs by each team in favor of teams closer to the beginning of the alphabet, but with the exception of a few songs that appeared often there were not as many duplicates as I expected.
This is not every song listed in the database. Nor did I listen to every song in the database. I've got a pretty eclectic taste in music, but a lot of that goes out the window when limiting yourself to a certain catalog of songs. That being said, Latin music is one genre I'll freely admit I'm not altogether too familiar with. When I saw a Latin artist appear over and over, or something like an album cover or track title caught my attention I gave them a listen. You'll definitely find more Latin tracks here (9) than country (0). While I love outlaw and classic country music, you'll find next to none of that in the database and the country I did come across isn't my taste.
My main goal was to make a playlist full of songs that appealed to the widest range of fans. That being said, I did try to keep my opening day crew in mind, and I still had to at least somewhat enjoy the song. Two artists, Post Malone and Travis Scott, appeared quite a bit in the database, but because they don't move the needle for me personally, you won't find them on the playlist. That's not to say that I excluded all trap. I've personally watched Trap Queen get a party started so Erick Fedde's walk-up song makes the cut.

I think a great walk-up song is something that gets the crowd excited, is still somewhat unique, and of course appeals to my personal taste. While not necessarily my favorite songs on the playlist, below are my three favorite choices for walk-up songs:
  1. Kyle Schwarber: Thuggish Ruggish Bone - Bone Thugs-N-Harmony
  2. Steven Brault: Come Down - Anderson .Paak
  3. Shohei Ohtani: Gettin' It - Too $hort

A few observations and highlights:

Two teams don't have any players' walk-up songs making the cut. With the Red Sox, I could have worked in X Gon' Give It To Ya, or Petty's I Won't Back Down, but early on (Boston being one of the first teams I went through) I didn't feel either really fit the playlist I was going for. In retrospect, both probably work. However, this did open it up for me to include the first of a few cheat songs. Opening Day is too fun to leave a team out, so to make up for the lack of Red Sox tunes, and knowing everybody loves MVP Baseball 2005, I decided to include Tessie by Dropkick Murphys.
Other cheat songs: or *'s
  1. Run On by Moby - My original goal was to limit the playlist to a single song for each artist. I didn't make it past Cleveland before I decided to break this rule. So when I got to the White Sox, I already had a J Cole song and a Kanye Song. Luckily, MLB game winner, Ryan Burr, had a great Johnny Cash song, God's Gonna Cut You Down, listed as his walk-up song. Knowing Moby's Run On relies heavily on a sample of this song, I decided to get creative. This was the closest country came to making the playlist.
  2. Back Into Time by Nightmares on Wax - This pick is inspired by Steven Matz. Of course he has Steve Miller's original version of Fly Like an Eagle listed. While the original is a great song, I'm choosing to be a bit selfish here and put on my favorite version. Personally I find this one a bit more fun, and I don't care for the outro at the end of Miller's version.
  3. Da Rockwilder by Method Man and Redman - Here I got the loosest with my rules. Miguel Sano actually has a Redman deep cut Let Da Monkey Out listed in the database. I would have loved to throw this on, but unfortunately it's unavailable on Spotify. There is a live version, it just doesn't sound great in my opinion. Da Rockwilder is Jim Thome coming off the bench to pinch hit.
  4. Bennie and the Jets by Elton John - Ben Zobrist may be the only player to walk up to a song performed by their spouse. No, one of the most versatile players in the league isn't married to Elton John, but rather Julianna Zobrist. Mrs. Zobrist, with Sir Elton's blessing, covers this classic from Goodbye Yellow Brick Road. I didn't include the cover version for a couple of reasons, the nicest being that her version isn't available on Spotify.
  5. Voodoo Child (Slight Return) by Jimi Hendrix - To be fair, James Pazos has the equally great "Voodoo Chile" listed in the database, but no song brought down Comerica Park quite like this spacier, faster version when Joel Zumaya came charging in from the bullpen, and that's the version you'll find here.
  6. Welcome to the Show by J Dilla - Sign me to the Astros because I've cheated again. Pete Alonso has a Cody Johnson track listed by the same name, but it doesn't make sense for this playlist and again country music does not get a call up to the show. I love baseball, but I'm a Tigers fan first. We're coming off a 114-loss season; I saw a chance to work in a Detroit connection and you're just going to have to let me have this one.
  7. Valley of the Dolls by Santigold - Unfortunately, Yan Gomes' actual pick Brooklyn Go Hard by Jay-Z and Santigold isn't available on Spotify. I've tried to keep the cheating to a minimum, but this playlist is seriously lacking in female voices and if I get a chance to work Santigold into a mix then I'm going to take it.

Other notable tracks:
  1. Vivimo Caro by Jose Reyes - Yep, that Jose Reyes. At first I thought Ketel Marte had to be the only All-Star in baseball walking up to a song recorded by a former batting champ. Nope, Acuña also walks up to a Reyes track. Though he has yet to release a complete album, that didn't stop a slew of players from trying to channel the 4x all-star through their walk-up song.
  2. Jalapeño by El Alfa - Gregory Soto and Robinson Cano share the wildest song on this playlist. In fact, it inspired me to install a new Opening Day tradition. Everytime this song comes up at your opening day tailgate do a shot of habanero-infused tequila. Seriously, it's incredibly easy to make and you still have time to get it ready for your socially distanced get together. Take six habaneros and halve them lengthwise. Combine the peppers and a fifth of blanco tequila (Anything is fine, just make sure it's 100% agave - I like Lunazul) in a glass jar and let sit for one hour. Using a funnel, strain the teuila through a fine-mesh sieve back into the bottle.
  3. Rest in Peace (Undertaker Theme) by Jim Johnston - Hansel Robles gets my pick for most creative pick. I love the idea of him coming to the plate to the same track the Undertaker uses to enter the ring.
  4. Going the Distance (From Rocky) by Bill Conti - Does it slow down the playlist? Absolutely. Does a cut from the Rocky score deserve a spot on this playlist? Again, absolutely. I thought about putting Puff Daddy's Victory here, because it samples the Conti piece, but I've had a lot of fun putting together this playlist and this song only adds to that fun.
  5. Above the Clouds by Gang Starr- Pitching in the A.L. last year, Adam Plutko only came to the plate twice, but he wanted everybody in the stands to know he was a hip-hop head. I used to live between two bars in Detroit; one, I now tailgate behind on Opening Day and I used to shoot pool in the other while Gang Starr played on the Jukebox. Easy pick here.
  6. Touch the Sky by Kanye West - With five tracks and a feature, Kanye appears the most on this playlist. Once I decided to break the rules, I fully expected Kanye to end up with a little black ink. I'm choosing to highlight Ian Desmond's walk-up song because he had one of the most important responses to all things 2020. I'm only too happy to find a way to work him into the season.
  7. Chambea by Bad Bunny - By the time I got to the Cubs, I had already seen the name Bad Bunny pop up a handful of times. It would have been a huge disservice to my former fantasy MVP Javier Baez if I chose to continue skipping over the name Bad Bunny. Additionally, Bad Bunny shows up again because my favorite player, and happiest player in baseball Miguel Cabrera, is also a fan and his song goes in by default. My in-laws are Mexican, and after taking the Triple Crown in flip cup (Wins, flip percentage, "whooos") prima Tina will inevitably start requesting Mexican music. This year, I got you Tina. The best part about having Mexican family is Fiesta Tigres or as I like to call it, Opening Day 2: Boogaloo Eléctrico.
  8. Work to Do by The Isley Brothers - Color me surprised, I did not take the Canadian born future hall of famer to be a fan of The Isley Brothers. It's a jam and I've always been a big fan of Votto so this easily makes the mix.
  9. Oh No (What You Got) by Justin Timberlake - I wasn't familiar with this song, but that is an unmistakable Timbaland beat and this Justin Turner pick fits well on an Opening Day playlist.
  10. Word Up by Cameo - Word Up can be fun, but it's mostly included here because I'll use any excuse to bring up how amazing of a person Curtis Granderson is. He will always be a Tigers favorite, and by all accounts he's well loved by both New York fanbases, surely a rare feat.
  11. Ignition Remix by R. Kelly - The argument of separating the man from the music is always interesting. As far as I know, though I haven't followed it that closely, R. Kelly has not been convicted of the sexual crimes which he has been accused. If I'm wrong, feel free to correct me. What he's been accused of is fucking disgusting, but for now, this Kyle McGrath pick makes the list. In light of his recent anti-semitic social media posts, this is probably a good time to point out that Ice Cube's Friday also appears on the playlist courtesy of Taijuan Walker.
  12. Got to Give it Up (Pt. 1) by Marvin Gaye - If you're having a party and this song isn't on your playlist are you really having a party? Delino DeShields and his teammate Joey Gallo really help this playlist take shape with this track and three others (Pony, No Diggity, Hip Hop Hooray). All four are the exact type of song you want for a crowd pleasing Opening Day playlist.
  13. Go Head by Gucci Mane - In my first Detroit loft, my upstairs neighbor would come home, crank up the Gucci Mane and throw coins all over her floomy ceiling. In the mornings she would rip farts so loud they still echo in my ears. This one's for you. Sadly, this was Gordon Beckham's biggest hit in 2019.
  14. K.R.I.T. Here by Big K.R.I.T. - I did not expect to see my favorite song of 2019 show up in the database, so this Brian Goodwin selection definitely qualifies as notable for me.
  15. Rubber Band Man by T.I. - This was the hardest choice to make; do I choose between the radio edit or the album version with the over one-minute long outro. Where Joe Kelly's pick, Snoop's Lay Low, gets a pass thanks to the rule that states you can never have enough Nate Dogg hooks on a playlist, this outro skit is too long and therefore the radio edit finds its way onto the playlist.
  16. Tops Drop by Fat Pat - I don't even have to look it up; if Robbie Grossman didn't grow up in Texas I'll eat my cleat.
  17. Down for My Niggaz by C-Murder - When Dalton Pompey steps to the plate at Rogers Centre, I'm going to assume they play the instrumental. No way there is a section of this song that is crowd friendly. Works like magic for me in the Nemo's parking lot.
  18. Stone Love by Pepper - Jordan Luplow has two songs listed in the database, this one, and a Wiz Khalifa track. Luplow can come smoke at my tailgate anytime. Likewise, including 311 and Rebelution might blow the cover for some in my crew, but getting blowed is another great American pastime.
  19. Icky Thump by White Stripes - In Detroit, Alex Avila walked up to The Black Keys' I Got Mine, so he clearly has an affinity for late 2000s blues rock. Despite his best efforts, it seems Jack White cannot escape being forever tied to his rock rivals from Ohio. Forever a fan favorite, maybe Avila just misses Detroit, so I'm a big fan of the White Stripes pick here.
  20. Bridge Burning by Foo Fighters - I'd be remiss if I didn't mention my cousin James who puts together our entire opening day party. He's a huge Foo Fighters fan, so this one is for you cuzzo. Many thanks to Dan Otero.
  21. Enter Sandman by Metallica - Thanks to Mariano Rivera, Enter Sandman is forever an iconic baseball song and thus a great song for this playlist. Here it shows up courtesy of Danny Salazar.
  22. Brother Louie by Stories - Luis Guillorme gets a ton of credit for picking a song that works in his name. Either that or he's a huge Louis C.K. fan. I bet this one is a lot of fun at Citi Field.
  23. We Will Rock You by Queen, Breathe by The Prodigy, Killing in the Name by Rage Against the Machine - Liam Hendriks walks up to a mashup of these three with some Skrillex added just for fun. Nobody bats a 1.000, but 3/4 ain't bad.

Back of the card stats

In total there are 158 songs ready to soundtrack more than 10 hours of your Opening Day.
I kept the genres simple:
Genre Number of Songs
Electronic 6
Latin 9
Other 2
R&B 14
Rap 80
Reggae 6
Rock 41

I've read that some hitters get so in the zone that they really don't pay attention to their walk-up music. Perhaps this explains the greater number of pitchers that appeared in the database. They come to the plate far less, sometimes just a handful of times, and therefore give a lot of thought to their walk-up music.
Least unique songs: These songs that made the playlist roster appeared in the database for multiple players. Players not listed first were excluded from the by position data.
Song Players
Thunderstruck by AC/DC Mark Melancon, AJ Minter, Tim Melville, Caleb Smith
Return of the Mack by Mark Morrison Merrill Kelly, Mark Morrison, Aaron Hicks, Adam Eaton
Going Bad by Meek Mill Christin Stewart, Brandon Crawford, Patrick Corbin
Chambea by Bad Bunny Javier Baez, Joe Jiménez, Pablo Sandoval
Fireman by Lil Wayne Josh James, Kenyan Middleton, Matt Bush
God's Plan by Drake Amir Garrett, Miguel Rojas, Boog Powell
Jalapeño by El Alfa Gregory Soto, Robinson Cano, Victor Robles
Cochise by Audioslave Anthony Swarzak, Zack Weiss, Zack Wheeler: It's a Zack thing.
No Diggity by Blackstreet Joey Gallo, Adam Eaton
Alive (Nightmare) by Kid Cudi and Ratatat Peter Lambert, Adam Ottavino
Can't Stop by Red Hot Chili Peppers TJ McFarland, Alex Wood
Vivimo Caro by Jose Reyes Ketel Marte, Amed Rosario
E.I. by Nelly Max Muncy, Devin Williams
Attention Span by Rebelution Rhys Hoskins, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Middle Child by J. Cole Max Fried, Jace Fry: If only old Pete Fries were still around.
What's My Name by Snoop Dogg Scott Alexander, Jay Guerra
Grindin' by Clipse Jake Cave, Jesse Chavez
'Till I Collapse by Eminem Sam Howard, Justin Verlander
Public Service Announcement by Jay-Z Archie Bradley, Lewis Brinson
Shut Up by Trick Daddy Yonder Alonso, Manny Machado
Yo Le Llego by J Balvin Yonathan Daza, Orlando Arcia
Humble by Kendrick Lamar Tyler Olson, Robert Gsellman
Money in the Grave by Drake Jake Bauers, Robinson Cano
For Whom the Bell Tolls by Metallica Ryan Tepera, Sean Doolittle
Seven Nation Army by White Stripes Seunghwan Oh, Stephen Strasburg
Immigrant Song by Led Zeppelin Noah Syndergaard, Will Myers
Opening Day Roster: With only two games on the docket I wanted to add one more. Below are the rosters for the Jukebox Heroes and the Bad Hop Boppers. The Jukebox heroes are made up of players that had my favorite song at each position while the BHP roster has the best remaining player at each position. Naturally, (First base) I had to make the Jukebox Heroes first to at least keep the rosters competitive. This is why you'll find Scherzer on the favorite song roster despite being the best pitcher in the database. Lucky for the home team, I'm an Outkast fan. I also excluded players that weren't regulars, had a negative war, or were now playing in Korea. This is why you won't find Josh Rojas, and Adam Jones patrolling the outfield next to Brian Goodwin. And this is why you won't see Khris Davis penciled in at the DH. In the end, this really helped balance the rosters; especially considering the noticeable drop off in arm talent once Scherzer is removed from the pool. Sneaking Schwarber in behind the dish didn't hurt either. He played one game there in 2019, and I'll use him here to play the first game of 2020.

Position Jukebox Heroes VS Bad Hop Boppers
P Max Scherzer Max Fried
C Kyle Schwarber Mitch Garver
1B Brandon Belt Pete Alonso
2B Ryan McMahon Max Muncy
3B Josh Donaldson Miguel Sano
SS Dansby Swanson Francisco Lindor
LF Tommy Pham Joey Gallo
CF Delino DeShields Ketel Marte
RF Brian Goodwin Bryce Harper
DH Justin Turner Trevor Story
Who you got?
Have a fantastic Opening Day! I can't believe baseball is actually here.
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What do you think of my DD on DraftKings (DKNG)?

DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way.
The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further.
I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half.
Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons.
At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50.
No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state.
Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
  1. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
  2. The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
  1. Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
  2. Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
  3. Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
submitted by lawgrads to InvestmentClub [link] [comments]

What do you think of my DD on DraftKings (DKNG)?

DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way.
The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further.
I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half.
Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons.
At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50.
No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state.
Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
  1. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
  2. The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
  1. Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
  2. Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
  3. Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
submitted by lawgrads to ValueInvesting [link] [comments]

More College Basketball Line Movement Data

My previous post regarding line movement in NCAA Men's Basketball spreads received a lot of great feedback and started some really great conversation. As I continue looking into this type of data I will share all of my results here in order to keep those conversations going or, at the very least, continue providing some interesting information for everyone to explore while we don't have any sports to bet on. The most recent numbers I've studied are college basketball totals. The overall takeaways this time are very similar to those previous:
  1. Movements on a total correctly predict the winning side less than half the time.
  2. No profitable betting strategy can be formulated by using line movements alone.
However, there were some interesting differences between sides and totals that are noteworthy:
  1. In reference to the adage, "The public loves favorites and overs"; Overs are not quite as popular with the "public" as favorites. Totals moved up (in favor of the over) 8.7% more often than down (in favor of the under). Recall that favorites saw an almost 11% bias compared to underdogs.
  2. The totals market is slightly more efficient than the spread market. Total line movements had an overall accuracy of 49.84%, compared to 48.99% for spreads. I explained that fading the market's spread movements would save a bettor over 1,000 units vs tailing. This same strategy for totals would save only 172 units.
  3. I found the first indication of market efficiency in one specific sub-set of data. When a total is bet down (in favor of the under), it correctly predicts an under 50.3% of the time. While still not successful enough to overcome -110 odds, it was pretty cool to uncover that the under is a "sharp" play more often than not.
I presented a theory at the end of this article that smaller markets are more likely to be comprised of a higher percentage of sharp players. College basketball is only ever king of the American betting markets during March and early April. Throughout the entire rest of the season it pales in comparison to the NFL and NBA. I made the assumption that recreational, so-called "five dollar" bettors are much more likely to make their "entertainment only" bets in one of those bigger markets. While it certainly can't be said that every die-hard fan or bettor with a model is a sharp player, I think it's an interesting perspective to have before analyzing those bigger markets.
In the meantime, as always, feel free to message me with any thoughts or questions, and stay safe!
Full article with graphical representations can be found here: https://gamblingandsubmarines.com/evaluating-line-movement-in-ncaa-basketball-totals/
submitted by NSIPicks to sportsbook [link] [comments]

[OC] The L.A. Clippers may be the best team in the league right now, but they may not be a "super team" quite yet

Ever since the shocking news about Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Los Angeles Clippers have emerged as the betting favorite in Vegas to win the 2019-20 title. And they genuinely may be. They should be a great team. However, there are some signs that the hype may be slightly overboard based on a few factors outlined here.
overachievement in 2018-19
This past season, the L.A. Clippers went 48-34, an incredible record given the expectations. However, there are certain advanced stats that suggest that the "48" win total may have been an overachievement.
Among them: the Clippers had a +0.8 point differential on the year, which is a good mark but one that's below standard for a team in their 48-win range. To illustrate, the 49-win Boston Celtics had a +4.4 differential, the 49-win Oklahoma City Thunder were +3.4, the 48-win Indiana Pacers registered +3.3., and the 48-win San Antonio Spurs logged +1.7.
The Western Conference is tougher than the East, but even if we make that adjustment, the Clippers overachieved. SRS (Simple Rating System) is a stat that adjusts for schedule. By that metric, the Clippers had a rating of +1.09, 13th in the NBA. Again, that falls behind teams in their win range like the Celtics (+3.9), Thunder (+3.5), Pacers (+2.8), and Spurs (+1.8).
Given all that, it's no surprise that "expected W-L record" claims the Clippers should have gone 43-39 given their advanced stat performance. Realistically, 44-45 wins feels like a reasonable outcome for last year's squad.
a for(e)ward to this year
The Clippers are going to trot out a wing combination of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, which may be one of the best in recent memory. I'm extremely excited to see how those two do on the defensive end; they may be the best pair of defensive wings since Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen.
That said, let's not underestimate the performance of the Clippers' previous forwards, Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari. Both are good players, who happened to have extraordinary years for the Clips last year. In the 55 games prior to his trade, Tobias Harris shot 43.4% from beyond the arc. In his 68 games played, Danilo Gallinari shot 43.3% from three himself. Those are blazing hot numbers, even when judged through the context of two good shooters (their career averages are 36.4% and 37.6%, respectively.)
Obviously, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will be clear improvements at forward, but the question becomes a matter of: how much?
If you trust ESPN's "wins added" stat, then Kawhi + PG would have added your team +28.2 wins last year. Now, again, that comes with the caveat about the accuracy of this stat. It relies heavily on RPM, which largely feels fair but does have some outliers. The stat loved Paul George's defensive impact (+3.1 in RPM) and hasn't charted Kawhi Leonard as an elite regular season defender in some time (only +0.02 last year.) The truth is probably somewhere in between; Leonard didn't play like a shutdown defender all year long, but he's obviously a good defender anyway.
Of course, we can't simply take the Clippers win total and add +28, because we're losing two good forwards in the process. Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari would have combined for +17.4 wins last year. Overall, they're suggesting that this upgrade is good for about +10/11 wins.
Rather than debate the accuracy of these stats, the purpose is merely to suggest that the Clippers' forwards (a red-hot half-season of Tobias Harris and a healthy Danilo Gallinari) aren't anything to scoff at.
watering down the Sweet Lou
If you want to boil down the Clippers' surprising success last season, you can credit a few factors. However, the primary one may have been the stellar bench play of Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. Williams, in particular, has thrived in his current role off the bench. The production per minute is staggering. He averaged 20.0 points and 5.4 assists in only 26.6 minutes a night.
However, it's difficult to see Williams playing the exact same role again. Effectively, he was the Clippers' lead option every minute he played. With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, he's going to have to play some more complementary basketball.
The big concern in that regard would be whether Williams can be as effective without the ball in his hands. As a pure three point shooter and spacer, he's good but not any great shakes (36% last year, 34.9% for his career.) Where Williams truly thrives is attacking the basket. He averaged 6.5 free throw attempts per game (hitting 88% at the stripe). If he's functioning more as a third option, that number would presumably go down.
Taking the ball out of Williams' hands may also highlight his issues on defense. Last season, he graded as an atrocious defender (-3.5 on RPM). He made up with that with his offense (+3.5), but if his offensive is more limited, that may be problematic.
buying high on superstars
After helping to bring a title to Toronto, Kawhi Leonard's stock and reputation may be at an all-time high. Right now, a huge percentage of community members here consider him the best player in the entire NBA.
He may indeed be that -- when he's healthy.
Unfortunately, the "when healthy" is an important caveat. Leonard's durability concerns date back further than his load management this year, and his prior injury in San Antonio.
Through the course of his NBA career, Leonard has played in 73% of his regular season games, a pace that projects to 60/82 games played per year. Even prior to his big Zaza Pachulia injury, he only played 70+ of his games 3 of his 6 seasons. Going forward, it will be interesting to see how much the Clippers can afford to manage his minutes and games in the West. Given their long-term commitment to Leonard (and their loss of picks) they would be wise to be prudent there. Projecting Leonard to play about 70 games this regular season feels like a fair oveunder in that regard.
Meanwhile, Leonard's new partner in crime Paul George is also coming off a highwater mark this past year in terms of his public value. With George, I'm less concerned with his durability or shoulder issues (he's played 75+ in each of the last four seasons). However, I'm slightly concerned that we may be judging him based on a career year. This season, Paul George averaged 28.0 points per game. Prior to that, his career high was only 23.7. This season, he finished 3rd in MVP voting. Prior to that, he only cracked the MVP ballot one time (finishing 9th in 2013-14).
Now, there are a few explanations for Paul George's career year that may depend on the eye of the beholder. If you're an optimist, you'd suggest that he's fully recovered from his broken leg and firmly in his prime. If you're a pessimist, you may argue that George simply got hotter than he ever has before (especially in the beginning of the year), and may have benefited from Russell Westbrook's madcap attacking+passing ability. As always, the truth is usually somewhere in between. I expect George to be a great player again, but counting on him to have a top 3 season would be generous. In an average year, he's probably a 2nd team All-NBA player.
overall expectations
There are a thousand other factors that go into a "win total" projection that we don't have time to dig into. And some of those aren't negative at all. For example, the fact that Lou Williams can carry an offense on his own when given the opportunity actually provides the Clippers a nice safety net in the event that Kawhi Leonard or Paul George misses time. Given that, the Clippers' "floor" is still quite high. Even if you expect some missed time and some shooting regression, this team should easily win 50+ games.
Overall, I would pencil in 56-60 wins for this Clippers team. That's higher than some other advanced sites (FiveThirtyEight has them at 54), but lower than most fans may suggest at the moment.
However, the Clippers fans should get excited when the lights come on and "playoff mode" gets activated. With extra rest between games, Kawhi Leonard should be more effective than ever, and potentially push this team over the top and to the title. That said, I would not label this a "super team" that's going to walk to that title. There are a bunch of very good teams in the league (particularly out West) that will have a puncher's chance to win it all themselves and aren’t far behind at all. The Clippers may still be at the top of that pack, but it's going to be a dog fight all the way through.
submitted by ZandrickEllison to nba [link] [comments]

2/24/20 - NBA Power Rankings

ESPN - 14
Rookie of the Year front-runner Ja Morant and the Grizzlies stumbled out of the gate after the All-Star break, dropping both ends of a road back-to-back against the Kings and Lakers to fall to .500. Morant had more turnovers than assists in both losses, something he had done only three times all season. He also had a negative plus-minus in consecutive games for the first time since late January, and his minus-25 against the Kings matched Morant's worst plus-minus since his NBA debut. -- MacMahon
CBS Sports - 15
The Grizzlies lost to the Kings and Lakers this week, and things go worse when they learned Jaren Jackson Jr. will be out at least two weeks with a left knee sprain. Memphis has the toughest remaining schedule in the NBA based on opponents' winning percentage, so hanging onto that No. 8 seed out West might be a difficult task.
Yahoo Sports - 14
Memphis has a three-game lead over the rest of the pack for the eighth seed in the Western Conference; however, they will have to fight to hold onto that final playoff spot. According to NBA.com, the Grizz have the NBA's toughest post-ASB schedule, both regarding opponent strength (cumulative opponent winning percentage of .554) and amount of road games (16 of their final 28 games are on the road). In addition, Jaren Jackson Jr. will be sidelined for at least two weeks due to a sprained knee.
Sports Illustrated - 14
Get well Jaren Jackson Jr., and let’s hope the emerging forward can be back for a first-round series against Anthony Davis and the Lakers. JJJ has been fantastic in his second season, banging home 40% of threes while averaging 16.9 points per game. Jackson projects to be an ideal modern five alongside Ja Morant. The Grizzlies have a real shot at becoming a Western Conference power after hitting the jackpot in back-to-back lotteries.
Bleacher Report - 14
Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Grizzlies currently sit in eighth place in the West, but FiveThirtyEight gives them just a 7 percent chance to hang onto that spot. Given their youth and the fact that they have the league's most difficult remaining schedule, it's not hard to understand the math's skepticism.
But this group has already made a habit of exceeding expectations. Memphis' preseason oveunder was set at 25.5, a mark the Grizzlies have already beaten.
Hoops Habit - 19
The Memphis Grizzlies quickly slid back to .500 after the All-Star break, losing both ends of a road back-to-back at Sacramento and in Los Angeles to the Lakers. The Grizzlies remain 3½ games clear of both the Trail Blazers and Spurs for eighth place in the Western Conference and have two more games on their four-game road sojourn before returning home to host the Kings and Lakers.
Adding injury to insult, second-year big man Jaren Jackson Jr. left Friday’s loss to the Lakers before halftime with a sore left knee and did not return. He is Memphis’ second-leading scorer this season at 16.9 points per game.
Backup point guard Tyus Jones scored 24 points with 11 assists and four rebounds in 36 minutes over the two games, hitting 9-of-16 from the floor and 2-of-3 from long range. Jones, in his first season with the Grizzlies, is averaging a career-high 7.1 points with 4.5 assists in 18.8 minutes per game, shooting 47.4 percent overall and 39.6 percent on 1.6 3-point tries a night.

Don't know this Hoops Habit site, but added it since it popped up in my search and they have us so much lower than every other publication.
submitted by Rainy_J to memphisgrizzlies [link] [comments]

The Single Dumbest Myth in All of Sports Betting! You Probably Made This Idiotic Mistake

Just don’t do it. The square player buys it hook, line, and sinker and thinks it’s the De Vinci Code of NFL betting.
So often we warn gamblers about the mortal sin of using inductive rather than deductive reasoning. The quintessence of that is the rapid circulation of the insipid illogic of “all you have to do is pick the straight up winner of a game and chances are you will have the spread winner.” It’s always followed by some stat where the outright winner has covered 80 percent of the time. Dah.
As any sports betting podcaster knows, when an underdog wins they cover 100 percent of the time. The favorite cannot cover unless they win outright. It’s impossible. The only scenario in which a team can win and not cover is when the favorite wins but by a smaller margin than the spread.
Not shockingly the numbnuts who perpetuate unscientific preposterousness almost always quote stats relevant to the NBA or NFL. In college sports there are more mismatches and hence larger spreads where the margin is larger for a favorite to win and not cover.
If a team is a 3.5 point favorite the only way the team that wins will not cover is for the favorite to win by one, two or three points. Any other result will have the team that wins covering. At what percentage do these half-wits think a team should win and not cover?
Obviously the stupidity of this widely circulated inductive blather can be refuted from now until eternity. Or at least until an underdog wins but fails to cover, whichever comes last. But to those who subscribe to it as if there is any logic, thanks for keeping the books in business for the rest of us.
Since the prevailing premise behind this urban myth is “it’s so much easier to pick the SU winner than the spread winner” why don’t these fancied geniuses just pick dog winner after dog winner on the moneyline?
There are plenty of underdogs that win outright, many huge dogs in fact. If one wants to postulate how much easier it is to pick the SU winner, why waste such foreknowledge on collecting $100 for every $110 risked? Just keep picking those 250 dogs and get your money’s worth.
I don’t want to ruin this fool’s gold with such a logical question, but like I keep saying, I guess those pipe dreamers are needed to keep the books in business for the rest of us.
No oddsmaker will go broke underestimating the intelligence of the betting public.
The author Joe Duffy has been a successful professional handicapper long before the Internet. Duffy burst on to the scene as scorephone legend “JD of the ACC”back in the 1980s and is now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com
submitted by offshoreInsiders to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

[OC] Is It Hot In Here, Or Is It Just Me? a 30-team examination of which coaches are on the “hot seat”

The NBA season hasn't started yet, but that doesn't mean that coaches should feel entirely comfortable in their offices quite yet. Circumstances change quickly, and coaching positions can change quickly along with them.
Through this (super long) post, I wanted to assess each coach's job security for this 2019-20 season. There's no simple or accurate metric for measuring this, so I'm going to give an estimated and subjective appraisal of their chances of getting fired, either in mid-season or at the end of the season.
I LOVE YOU, PLEASE DON'T LEAVE ME (listed alphabetically by team)
Golden State: Steve Kerr
After 5 years on the job, Steve Kerr has a winning percentage of .785 in the regular season, and 3 NBA titles in the postseason. In fact, the team's 57-25 record last year was the worst of his tenure so far. So yes, his job is safe. Kerr could coach the next 10 years there if he wanted. For Kerr, it's not a matter of job security; it's a matter of health. He's been able to endure his constant back pain in pursuit of titles, but will he have the same resolve if the team sags into "good but not great" status? TBD. chance of firing: 0%. chance of retirement: 10%.
L.A. Clippers: Doc Rivers
A few years ago, Doc Rivers was almost the victim of his own success. His gaudy resume had allowed him to take charge of the L.A. Clippers front office, and he simply didn't do a great job in that role. However, he wisely took more of a backseat there, and embraced the job (head coach) that he's quite good at. The 48-34 record last year re-established his coaching cred, and the new superstars should energize him for a few more seasons at least. chance of firing / retirement: 2%
San Antonio: Gregg Popovich
Along with Steve Kerr, Gregg Popovich is firmly in the "you can stay as long as you want" camp. And he nearly has. He's been at the helm for 23 years. Amazing, the last two seasons (47-35, 48-34) have amounted to Pop's worst percentages over the course of a full season. He's one of the greatest ever, and unlike some old veteran coaches, hasn't lost his fastball whatsoever. He's constantly adapted, evolved, and thrived. But as with Kerr, the question is whether Popovich is nearing the end of the road, for personal reasons. He's 70 now, and in control of Team USA. He may hand the baton off and focus on that job going forward. I suspect he'll give it a go in both roles until the Olympics at least, but it's no longer a guarantee. chances of firing: 0%. chances of retiring: 20%.
I STILL LOVE YOU, BUT WE MAY NEED COUPLES COUNSELING (listed alphabetically)
Boston: Brad Stevens
A season or two ago, Brad Stevens was the golden boy coach in the NBA. After a slightly underwhelming 49-33 season, we're starting to see some grumbles about his offense (which isn't as free-flowing and ball-moving as his age may suggest.) The Celtics will replace Kyrie Irving with Kemba Walker, but expectations aren't much lower. If the team can't grab a top 4 seed, those grumbles may grow. And if the Boston-Stevens love affair ends, would he start to eye a move back to the NCAA? Probably not, but we can't promise the marriage lasts forever. chances of firing: 2%, chances of leaving: 5%.
Miami: Erik Spoelstra
Although the Miami Heat have been mediocre lately (124-122 over the last three years), I'm still be inclined to group in Erik Spoelstra in with the "untouchables." After all, this is a 2-time champion coach with 500+ career wins prior to the age of 50 (48 years old right now.) Even if the Miami Heat underachieve and miss the playoffs again, I don't think Pat Riley would want to rock the boat on this culture. Still, Jimmy Butler is a handful, and potential addition Chris Paul isn't a bed of roses either. If Spoelstra can't get "buy in" from his new stars, then there may be more trouble in paradise than we expect. Again, it's a very small chance a divorce happens, but we can't give it a 0 either. chance of firing: 4%.
JUST DON'T EMBARRASS ME IN PUBLIC (listed alphabetically)
Cleveland: John Beilein
It's hard to under-estimate the leverage rookie coach John Beilein has with the organization right now. They lured him from Michigan with a 5 year contract, where he'll be "working for" a front office that features assistant GM Mike Gansey (Beilein's former player.) Simply put: they're going to hand him this team and allow him to build a program in his image. Despite that, it doesn't mean the transition will work like a charm (just ask Billy Donovan.) Beilein is 66 years old, and has never coached in the pros before. He may simply decide that he hates the NBA and walk away prematurely. Still, it's hard to imagine that happening this early barring any unforeseen health issues. chances of firing: 1%. chances of leaving: 5%.
Memphis: Taylor Jenkins
Although they have wildly different resumes and backgrounds, Taylor Jenkins will be in a similar boat to John Beilein. He's inheriting a team that's in a rebuilding situation, and should afford him a lot of patience going forward. The Wharton-grad Jenkins projects as a smart, modern coach who should have long-term success. Still, we can't absolutely guarantee Memphis doesn't fire him after 1 season, because they have done that before. chances of firing: 3%
Milwaukee: Mike Budenholzer
Based on pure coaching talent and resume, Coach Bud has nothing to worry about - particularly after a 60-22 record last season. The only reason that I'm even putting him in this category at all is the potential for off-the-court issues. He had been arrested before on a suspicion of DUI back in 2014, although he was later found not guilty. If something worse happens in that ilk, then he may be in trouble. But barring that, he's obviously safe. chances of firing: 2%.
Minnesota: Ryan Saunders
While interim coach Ryan Saunders (Flip's son) had been a popular pick in the locker room, he still represents a sizable risk by this new front office. After all, he's only 33 years old and hasn't been a head coach at any level prior to that short stint last season. He may be a home run; he may be a strike out. Of course, he'd have to be a wild strike out (with a bat thrown into the stands) for it to amount to a firing in year one. chances of firing: 5%
Orlando: Steve Clifford
Veteran Steve Clifford did a tremendous job in his first year in Orlando, helping the team improve from 25-57 to 42-40 and a playoff trip. There's a chance the Magic may stagnate in R1 unless one of their young players (Jon Isaac, Mo Bamba, Markelle Fultz) takes a "leap," but they should have patience with Clifford for at least another year or two. Barring health issues, his job is safe. chances of firing: 2%.
Phoenix: Monty Williams
One of the reasons we can't claim rookie coaches are entirely safe is because teams like Phoenix have fired them in the past -- including Igor Kokoskov last season. However, it'd be very difficult for any owner (even Robert Sarver) to justify doing it two times in a row. In fact, Monty Williams secured a 5-year deal to help prevent that nonsense. chances of firing: 2%.
Sacramento: Luke Walton
Despite mixed results in L.A., Luke Walton was a hot commodity with the Sacramento Kings franchise, who gave him a nice 4-year contract. Of course, that happened before the sexual misconduct allegations that surfaced since. While that appears to have quieted down, any new rumor or accusation may turn up the heat on Walton. Barring that, the team should stand by their man. chances of firing: 5%.
Toronto: Nick Nurse
Nick Nurse is about as close to "untouchable" as you can get for a coach with 1 year of experience. But hey, that was a heck of a year. Nurse won the title, and outfoxed several great coaches along the way. The Raptors could probably sink down as low as 30 wins (unlikely) and still keep Nurse for the long haul. chances of firing: 1%.
Utah: Quin Snyder
While Quin Snyder hasn't had a huge amount of playoff success yet himself, he's also quickly established himself as one of the better NBA coaches. Over the last three years, the Jazz have played lockdown defense and averaged 49.7 wins. This offseason has raised expectations, but Snyder should be safe for another season or two even if they slightly underachieve. The bigger issue would be if Snyder gets in trouble off the court; he had a wilder history in college prior to straightening out in the pros. chances of firing: 4%.
YOU'RE SAFE (FOR NOW) (again, alphabetically)
Atlanta: Lloyd Pierce
In theory, Lloyd Pierce should be in great shape here in Atlanta. The young team had a solid 29-53 season in his first year, and their young core projects well for the future. That said, expectations will rise over time. Pierce was partly hired for his defensive reputation, but the team only ranked 27th last season. With Trae Young (who graded dead last in ESPN RPM on defense), that may be hard to change. Hopefully rookies De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish will solve that issue, but if not, Pierce may start feeling some heat in 2020. When he was hired, the team only gave him a 3 year contract, which indicates that he didn't have much leverage coming in. chances of firing: 7.5%
Charlotte: James Borrego
Like Lloyd Pierce, James Borrego will be entering Year 2 in a rebuilding situation that should lend itself to patience. On the other hand, logic tends to go out the window when it comes to the Charlotte Hornets. Borrego will have to deal with a weak roster, and a shaky front office that just gave $19M a season to Terry Rozier. I expect Borrego will survive for a while, but we can't rule out a house cleaning. chances of firing: 10%.
Brooklyn: Kenny Atkinson
Kenny Atkinson has done a great job bringing the Nets out of a deep black hole rebuild, but now the expectations will vault up with the arrival of Kyrie Irving (and soon Kevin Durant.) Presumably, those stars wouldn't have signed up in the first place if they didn't like Atkinson. That said, their opinions can change at the drop of a hat. A disappointment in 2019-20? Okay fine. Another in 2020-21? Then Atkinson will start feeling that seat warm. chances of firing: 4%
Dallas: Rick Carlisle
As one of the most respected coaches (and a title winner to boot), Rick Carlisle should have job security for life. Still, the NBA will always be a stars league, and Carlisle's star isn't Dirk Nowitzki anymore. It's going to be Luka Doncic (and Kristaps Porzingis' team), and Carlisle will need to appease them to some degree. Missing the playoffs this year may be fine, but whiffing again in 2020-21 would be problematic; it would be the 5th season in a row without a playoff berth. chances of firing/retiring: 5%
Denver: Mike Malone
After a premature exit in Sacramento, Mike Malone has rebuilt his stock by lifting Denver to contender status. He's improved every year, from 30-52 to 33-49 to 40-42 to 46-36 to the breakout 54-28 record last season. Of course, that also comes with rising expectations. Like the others in this section, Malone could survive one regression year, but two disappointing years in a row would be a problem. chances of firing: 5%.
Detroit: Dwane Casey
Of all our coaches, Dwane Casey knows that one should never get too comfortable. After all, he was fired after a 59-win season (and a Coach of the Year trophy) in Toronto. After that, he still had enough leverage to earn a 5-year deal in Detroit, which should buy him quite a bit of time. Still, a 41-41 start was "meh." To make matters worse, Nick Nurse and the Raptors won the title without him (albeit with Kawhi Leonard.) Given Casey's big contract, he should be safe in Year 2 and Year 3, but there's hardly a guarantee he'll survive all 5 years of the deal. chances of firing: 5%.
10 HOTTEST SEATS (in order)
(10) Portland: Terry Stotts
Remember, this isn't a ranking of the best and worst coaches but merely their situations. In fact, everyone would agree that Terry Stotts is a very good basketball coach. In fact, if you asked the other NBA coaches to rank their peers, I suspect Stotts may even crack the top 5. That skill has manifested on the court as well. His Blazers have made the playoffs for 6 seasons in a row, and had a mini-breakout with a Conference Finals trip this year.
Still, making the playoffs doesn't lock in job security in the NBA; winning a title does. And until that happens, the franchise will always wonder in the back of their minds on whether or not they should pull a "Masai Ujiri" and squeeze Stotts out for a younger assistant on his staff like Nate Tibbetts, a rising star in the ranks.
After tasting the WCF last year, can Stotts afford to take a step back? Probably. Losing in R2 seems about right for this team as presently constructed. But what if they lose in R1? Then it becomes more of a debate. I'd still recommend keeping Stotts and tweaking the roster instead (ya'll got any more of them stretch PFs?) but I'm not in charge of the team and I'm not ruling any shake-ups out. chances of firing: 15%
(9) Indiana: Nate McMillan
As with Terry Stotts, it may feel strange to see Nate McMillan on this list. At first glance, neither should be on the hot seat at all. In McMillan's three years on the job, he's guided the team to winning records and playoff trips in each season. The Pacers just finished 48-34 despite Victor Oladipo's injury, and may be better than that this season with new additions like Malcolm Brogdon.
Still, we have to go deeper than the first glance here. Indiana thrives on the basis of their defense (ranked 3rd last season), which is heavily influenced by assistant Dan Burke and DPOY candidate Myles Turner. Offensively, the team tends to look a little scattered and uncreative, which has Pacers fans quietly murmuring about McMillan. They added some new scorers in Brogdon and T.J. Warren, but both are players coming off career years from 3. If they regress at all -- and this team regresses at all -- then McMillan may be in more trouble than we realize.
Am I expected that? Not really. If I had to bet, I would bank on the Pacers winning 45-50 games and McMillan lasting at least another season. But if we're looking for potential hot seat situations, we can't ignore the potential downside here. If they underachieve, McMillan may be the fall guy. chances of firing: 20%
(8) N.Y. Knicks: David Fizdale
We can't judge David Fizdale too harshly based on his 17-65 record in year one. After all, tanking and landing a top 3 pick was all part of the plan. But what's the plan going forward? After striking out with the superstars in free agency, the Knicks signed a bunch of B+ and C+ players to big money. With it, they've attempted to re-set expectations. Instead of landing superstars in 2019, they're going to land them in 2021! Hopefully?
In the meantime, David Fizdale should be able to survive until then. His team is still young, and features first and second year players like R.J. Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox, and Dennis Smith. Practically speaking, the veterans like Julius Randle and Bobby Portis are meant to supplement that rebuilding movement. Fizdale should be allowed to develop this group, and be afforded some growing pains in 2019-20 and again in 2020-21.
However, there are a few factors working against him. The front office may fancy themselves a playoff contender out East, which may go sour by the end of the year. Moreover, that front office isn't exactly on solid ground themselves after getting pounded by the press this summer. Dolan may want a complete fresh start after this year. More than that, there's a non-zero chance James Dolan leaves town himself, and some super-billionaire like Jeff Bezos uses his change jar to buy the team and mold it into his image. At the end of the day, there's more uncertainty with this situation than a second-year coach would like to see. chances of firing: 20%
(7) Chicago: Jim Boylen
As a well-respected defensive coordinator, Jim Boylen's name has always been bandied about for head coaching jobs in the past. He finally got his opportunity last season after taking over for apple pie Fred Hoiberg in mid-season.
At first, it did not go well. Jim Boylen had about as rocky of a start as you can imagine, earning negative reports in the press about his drill sergeant attitude clashing with the locker room. Still, he turned that perception around and had a decent finish to the year and earned some "buy in" from the players. Better yet, his Chicago Bulls may be a darkhorse contender for the # 8 seed. They have offensive stars in Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen already, so an improved defense may vault them closer to .500. Even if that doesn't happen (yet), Boylen should feel safe knowing he has the backing of the front office.
Of course, that also ties Boylen's fate to that front office. Ownership has tended to leave Gar Forman and John Paxson alone, but it's not a lifetime appointment. If this team doesn't improve enough (and wins say, 25 or 30 games), then there may be a total housecleaning here. I'm a little more optimistic on the Bulls' chances of winning 35-40 games than others, but we can't rule a potential disaster out. chances of firing: 25%
(6) Philadelphia: Brett Brown
After a long dark winter, Brett Brown and the Philadelphia 76ers have emerged from the "Process" intact. In fact, Brown has won more games in each of the last two seasons (52 and 50) then he did over his first three seasons combined (47). But with that comes raised expectations, which may be higher than ever. With Kawhi Leonard out of the Conference and the sheen off the Boston Celtics, the Sixers are the co-favorites with Milwaukee to make the Finals. Losing in the Conference Finals would be acceptable, but a R1 or R2 loss may be stinging.
Would that disappointment be enough to cost Brown his job? It's debatable. His contract extension runs through 2021-22, but that's never stopped a coach from being fired before. Fans may grow frustrated if Ben Simmons still can't shoot, or if Joel Embiid can't stay healthy, or if Philly's defense doesn't look as dominant as it should be on paper (despite Simmons, Embiid, and Jimmy Butler, they only ranked # 15 last season.) It's very possible that Brown becomes the scapegoat here.
Of course, we're talking "worst case scenarios" here. Chances are: the Sixers should be quite good and have a very good chance to make the ECF or the Finals. So while we can't rule out a firing, we wouldn't bet on it either. chances of firing: 30%
(5) New Orleans: Alvin Gentry
After coming over from Golden State, the exceptions for Alvin Gentry in New Orleans were sky-high. Suffice it to say, it's been an underwhelming return so far. Despite the (occasional) presence of Anthony Davis, his Pelicans have won less than 35 games in three of his four seasons on the job.
Oddly, Davis' trade demands may have helped Gentry survive another year. With the blockbuster deal, expectations get re-set and the window extends again. On paper, Gentry and assistant Chris Finch's run-and-gun style should suit this new roster well. Gentry is also someone who's earned high praise from his players and from the media in the past. If new execs David Griffin and Trajan Langdon didn't believe in him, they had the opportunity to make that change this past summer.
But alas, that doesn't mean they won't have that same opportunity again next summer. Gentry's contract will be running out, and the team may decide to go with someone younger than him (he's now age 64.) To earn a longer leash, Gentry doesn't need to make the playoffs, but he has to show reasons for optimism. The Pelicans need to find a clear role for Zion Williamson, and earn some improvement from the cast-off Lakers. There's a lot of talent on the roster, but if the team stalls or looks like a muddled mess, Griffin may likely clean up the picture and chose his own head coach the next time around. chances of firing: 35%
(4) Houston: Mike D'Antoni
Veteran Mike D'Antoni may start spitting out Rodney Dangerfield routines, because the poor guy doesn't get much respect. Despite a great run here in Houston (records of 55-27, 65-17, 53-29), he's still struggling to earn a contract extension from the franchise.
And while owner Tilman Fertitta gets the blame for that, we can't rule out Daryl Morey's influence either. Morey has stated in the past that he thinks coaches' messages tend to run stale after a few years, and that philosophy has born out in their decision making. Jeff Van Gundy lasted 4 years. After him, Rick Adelman lasted 4 years. After him, Kevin McHale lasted 4 years (+10 games). This season, Mike D'Antoni will be entering the dreaded 4th year himself. The Houston Rockets' job essentially has strict presidential term limits, and he's verging on lame duck status.
To up the degree of difficulty even further, the team added Russell Westbrook to the equation. That's not to say it's the wrong decision by any means or that it won't work out (personally I'd still peg them for a top 3 seed), but we have to admit there's a sizable chance that it won't work out. The chemistry for Harden + Westbrook is going to be harder to calculate now that they've both had considerable success (and MVP seasons). And if something doesn't click, it will certainly be easier to blame D'Antoni than the two stars, whose massive contracts run for another few seasons. chances of firing/retiring: 40%
(3) L.A. Lakers: Frank Vogel
It's rare to see a first-year coach listed this high, but this is rare circumstances indeed. Frank Vogel will be joining the Lakers on a 3-year contract, which is quite light for a veteran like him. That fact showcases his limited leverage and his reduced reputation. The Lakers didn't high the coach who guided the Indiana Pacers to the ECF; they hired the coach who led Orlando to 29-53 and 25-57 records. In some ways, Vogel is lucky to have landed any job at all.
But there's no mistaking the fact that this particular job will come with some challenges. Primary among them: the threat of assistant Jason Kidd breathing down his neck. According to some, Kidd was the first choice of the front office, and the conspiracy theory that they simply didn't want to hire him outright (due to domestic violence charges in the past) checks out logically for me. Vogel can't be too pleased to turn on the Summer League and watch his new star LeBron James sitting next to Kidd in Vegas either.
Will LeBron James, Rich Paul, and Jason Kidd conspire to stab Vogel like Caesar? The odds are high. But the question is a matter of "when?" James didn't love David Blatt, but allowed him 1.5 on the job before he got the boot. The Lakers may end up giving Vogel a full season and change to make his impact on the defensive end before considering a full-time change in midseason in 2020-21.
And hey, we can't rule out the "what if it works?" theory either. This team has LeBron James and Anthony Davis, for fuck's sake. They have a legitimate chance to be a great team, and even an NBA champion. If that happens, Vogel won't be going anywhere (at least, not for another year or two.) chances of firing: 45%
(2) Washington: Scottie Brooks
The Scottie Brooks era in Washington has been a disappointment, and it won't get much prettier from here. After the John Wall injury, the Wizards will be entering 2019-20 with one legitimate star in Bradley Beal and a wonky supporting cast. They're a motley crew of decent prospects who may be 2 years away (Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant) and veterans who may be 2 years removed from quality play (Isaiah Thomas, Ish Smith, C.J. Miles.) Realistically speaking, Bradley Beal will have to put in a Herculean effort for this group to win 35 games.
If there's any reason to think the axe will not come for Scottie Brooks' head, it's that this Washington Wizards owner Ted Leonsis isn't the "off with his head!" type. He's been patience with the Washington Capitals hockey team, as well as this Wizards unit. Former GM Ernie Grunfeld lasted for years past his expiration date. And in turn, Brooks may be allowed to play out another year of his (pricy) contract. Brooks also has a reputation as a good player development coach, which bodes well for his prospects during a possible rebuild to come.
All that said, Brooks shouldn't be investing in D.C. real estate. The clock is ticking. I would fully expect new acting GM Tommy Sheppard to cut Brooks loose and choose his own coach at some point, but we can't be 100% confident it will happen after this season or after the next. chances of firing: 50%
(1) Oklahoma City: Billy Donovan
Given his new status as a /NBA punching bag, it's hard to under-sell just how much leverage Billy Donovan had when he first came to Oklahoma City. We're talking about a well-paid college coach who had won two separate NCAA titles at Florida, and had resisted the NBA calls for years. He arrived in OKC with a 5-year deal in tow, as well as a reputation as one of the best coaches in basketball.
As we now enter Year 5 of that contract, Donovan's reputation has been tarnished considerably. He's been blasted for perceived underachievement, particularly in the postseason. With Kevin Durant, the team blew a 3-1 lead to Golden State, and hasn't won a playoff series since (losing in R1 three times in a row.) In fact, they've gone 4-15 in playoff games since then. Donovan's managed to avoid getting the boot because of his reputation and big contract, but those excuses won't hold off the executioner much longer.
Personally, I'm a little bit of a "Donovan Defender." I don't think he's done as bad of a job as advertised. After all, his worst regular season record has been 47-35. He's kept the team afloat without Kevin Durant. And sure, he probably should have reined in Russell Westbrook, but it's not easy to harness an MVP. The fact that Donovan won 48 games with a guard who jacked up 20 shots a game (at 50.1% true shooting) is oddly impressive in a way. And heck, let's even defend blowing the 3-1 lead. It's not like OKC woke up one morning with a 3-1 lead under their Christmas tree; Donovan used some wily tricks and unconventional lineups to help earn those 3 wins in the first place.
But again, these rankings aren't about my perception of the coaches, but rather my perception of their situations and stocks. In theory, this OKC roster isn't half bad and could flirt with .500 if they wanted to pursue the playoffs. And in theory, if they blow it up, then a college coach like Donovan may be well suited for that rebuild. But in reality, I just don't see an extension here. The marriage has soured, resentment has built up, and a divorce may be best for both parties involved. chances of firing: 55%
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