Blue Jays open season as betting underdogs at Tampa Bay
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Wrestling Observer Rewind ★ Apr. 1, 2002
Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives. PREVIOUSLY:
NOTE:Sorry about no post on Friday. Real life shit got in the way.
WWF finally took the plunge and went through with the long-rumored brand split this week, all while Steve Austin was sitting at home. Austin walked out after Wrestlemania and didn't appear on TV this week for the draft. He was expected to be the #1 pick fro Raw, so they changed the angle and explained that he couldn't be drafted due to a contract situation. Austin still has a year left on his WWF deal, so he can't go anywhere, but he isn't hurting for money so he can sit at home and be just fine. Austin's issues date back a couple of months and he was vocally unhappy about working with Scott Hall and the NWO in general. Morale in the company has sank since those guys came in, got main event spots, and started getting everything they wanted creatively and professionally. Some in the locker room see Austin's walkout as him protesting the state of the company, with an unhappy locker room that no longer has any leverage since all the other companies are dead, and Austin is the one guy with enough "fuck you" clout that he can stand up to Vince. Most of the wrestlers are said to be on his side, though the NWO guys and Triple H and co. obviously don't feel the same. But it goes back further than that. Austin was telling people 6 months ago that he would go home if the job stopped being fun.
Anyway, Dave breaks down the rosters of each show. Triple H and Jazz (men and women's champs) will float between both shows and work about half the house shows for each brand. Raw gets the IC, Euro, and Hardcore champions. Smackdown gets tag titles and cruiserweights. Several notable names were undrafted. Rhyno, Mike Awesome, Steve Blackman, and Chris Kanyon are all injured and weren't placed anywhere. Developmental names like Randy Orton and Ron Waterman are expected to be called up soon, among others. If Eddie Guerrero and Rey Mysterio are brought in, they'll likely be on SD with the cruiserweight division (Dave says Guerrero canceled his NJPW bookings for April which is a pretty solid sign that he'll be returning soon). Many of the lower-card wrestlers had no idea where they were going to end up and had to log on to wwf.com later that night to legitimately find out their futures. Tag teams like the Dudleyz and the APA were split up in the draft. Dave can't see the logic in splitting the Dudleyz and hopes it's the beginning of an angle that eventually reunites them. As for the APA, that's fine. Faarooq's career is winding down anyway and they've been talking about pushing Bradshaw as a single's star for over a year.
Raw is missing its top draw (Austin) and is pretty weak overall. Lumbering giants like Undertaker, Kevin Nash, and Big Show all ended up on Raw so don't expect a lot of great matches coming out of that brand. Plus they drafted Brock Lesnar to that brand, so his impressive size isn't going to stand out as much among those guys. With the cruiserweight division, plus guys like Jericho, Benoit, and Angle, you can bet Smackdown is going to have the better matches. Plus they have The Rock and Hogan for star power. But much like Raw, Smackdown might be in danger of not having its top draw either. Rock is expected to be gone for much of the summer to film another movie and he's continuing to get more and more movie offers, which means more time away from wrestling. And Hogan can't be a long-term weekly top draw anymore, no matter how much nostalgia popularity he has right now. Which means it's vital that they finally commit to pushing Angle, Jericho, and Benoit as real top stars.
Dave reviews the latest UFC show, with Josh Barnett winning the heavyweight title from Randy Couture in an upset. Long detailed recap full of the usual news and stuff, but it's MMA sooooo...
And the next story is about Cael Sanderson of Iowa State becoming, record-wise, the single greatest collegiate wrestler in U.S. history by winning his 4th NCAA championship and ending his college record at 159-0. So MMA and college wrestling. On to the next...
AJPW notes: after long negotiations, AJPW failed to secure a new TV deal. The normal TV season in Japan is starting next week and they were hoping to have a deal signed by now, but no luck. Also, they're interested in bringing in Super Crazy for their junior heavyweight division but it'll likely depend on whether he gets an offer from WWF instead (neither happens right now. He spends the next 2 years bouncing around NJPW, CMLL, and Zero-1 before he finally ends up in WWE in 2005).
Already halfway through the issue and past the major stories. This seems like a slow issue wrestling-wise, but the UFC and Cael Sanderson stories were both big chunks so....sorry this one kinda blows.
NOAH junior champion Naomichi Marufuji dislocated his knee when landing wrong on a moonsault and had to be stretchered out at a recent show. No word on how long he'll be out of action for (must have been a pretty bad injury. Looks like he comes back 2 weeks later, wrestles a match to drop the title, and then is out of action for the next 10 months).
Hiroyoshi Tenzan and Masahiro Chono won the vacant tag team titles at the latest NJPW show, beating Nagata and Manabu Nakanishi in a tournament final match. The titles were, of course, vacated when Keiji Muto jumped ship to AJPW, leaving his partner Taiyo Kea and the belts behind. Nagata ate the pin here. And in fact, Nagata also recently did several submission jobs to Tadao Yasuda at some shows and Dave jokes that Nagata is getting the Chris Jericho push. You know, beat him to death for months on end until the fans see him as a midcarder, then put the title on him with almost no build-up, and then wonder why he's not over and blame him when business is down (indeed, Nagata wins the IWGP title just a week or two after this and even though he holds it for 13 months, business goes in the toilet. And it's through no fault of Nagata's).
Antonio Inoki announced that he is bringing in Chyna to the NJPW 30th anniversary show at the Tokyo Dome in May. Remember a week or so ago when Inoki talked about how successful WWF's recent show in Japan was and admitted that maybe he has some stuff to learn from it? This is it. Inoki realized the huge popularity WWF has in Japan right now and reached out to one of their biggest stars of the last few years to bring in as a celebrity guest. The idea they teased in the press is that she would come in and work a match and probably defeat one of NJPW's lower card guys, which Dave thinks would be a horrible idea (yeah, that would suck. Better idea: how about she goes over Yuji Nagata and Jushin Liger in her first match, how's that sound Dave? Because that's exactly what we get. Fuckin' Inoki, man...)
NJPW's latest show in Tokyo did a disappointing attendance number and Dave says that's what happens when you make Tadao Yasuda your world champion. No matter how much publicity he got off his upset MMA victory a few months ago, and no matter how nice his underdog comeback story is, he flat out sucks as a pro wrestler and the crowd sees it and don't buy him as champion. Even worse, they had him go over Tenzan by submission. With NJPW's depleted roster, Tenzan is one of the only cool, not-washed-up wrestlers they have left. Anyway, this sets up a Yasuda match with Nagata at the next show in Tokyo and if NJPW has any smarts at all, they'll get that belt off him and onto Nagata ASAP (they do, thankfully).
Bobby Heenan is currently recovering from surgery to remove his lymph nodes. following his recent cancer diagnosis and is said to be in good spirits.
Various notes: Goldberg filmed an episode of the HBO show Arli$$ recently. Ken Patera did an interview and said the strongest men in wrestling from his era were Andre The Giant, Bruno Sammartino, Ivan Putski, Billy Graham, and Tony Atlas, in that order, and praised Bruno for being extra impressive because he never used steroids. Shane Douglas' Time Warner contract is expiring in a few weeks and it's rumored he'll be working with XPW as a wrestlebooker.
Jerry Jarrett's new promotion is expected to start in June and there continue to be rumors that Vince Russo will be ghost-writing the show. Dave says the differences between a Russo show and a Jarrett show should be pretty glaringly obvious within the first few minutes of the first show, so we'll just have to wait and see (I don't know if he was involved in the very first shows or not, but he joins the company within the first month).
Remember the WCW KISS Demon? Well his real name is Dale Torborg and he now works as a coach for the Florida Marlins baseball team (his father Jeff is the manager of the team). Anyway, Torborg recently got into a confrontation with relief pitcher Antonio Alfonseca that is rumored to have gotten physical and resulted in Alfonseca locking himself in a trainer's office to get away. Everyone on the team is being hush-hush about the incident. Alfonseca apparently has a bit of a reputation of being hard to deal with, but since the incident, he's allegedly been on his best behavior because apparently the KISS Demon put the fear of god in him (here's a news article from it at the time. Alfonseca ends up being traded to a new team a few days later, although the Marlins denied this incident had anything to do with it).
Ring of Honor has announced some new rules for its promotion. For starters, they're bringing back tag ropes (yeah, during this era, that was a small thing that sorta just got ignored by everyone for years). They're also not doing any count-outs. ROH booker Gabe Sapolsky said that outside-the-ring counts always go really slow and referees have to stall or find excuses to break the count and no one likes count-out finishes anyway, so why even have them? So now, you can fight on the floor all you want. Dave says AJPW pretty much did the same thing in the 90s. ROH also wants to have very little outside interference or ref bumps and clean finishes.
Apparently, Jake Roberts is being investigated in England by the RSPCA for animal cruelty. After a recent show there, someone complained that he was being cruel to his snake at the show. The next night, the RSPCA sent an agent to another show Jake was working to watch and they weren't happy with what they saw either, so they've opened an investigation (yeah, as a kid, this was of course the coolest thing ever. But as an adult, I hate watching the way animals have been used in wrestling over the years. Jake used to just throw that snake around like it was nothing, fling it across the ring, people would fall on it, land on it, step on it, whatever. Remember the scene where Jake locked Ultimate Warrior in a room full of snakes? Go back and watch it now, Warrior is just kicking the shit out of these poor little snakes. Or another example, I remember watching a British Bulldogs match a few months ago and they had Matilda the bulldog jump off the ring apron to the mat below. That's a 3-4 foot jump. As someone who has owned bulldogs, that is terrible for their spines. As a kid, all this stuff was whatever. But as an animal-loving adult, watching all that old footage now makes me real uncomfortable).
An indie promotion in Pittsburg called IWC had a tournament called the Super Indy Tournament featuring Chris Hero, Christopher Daniels, Low-Ki, Colt Cabana, and some kid named CM Punk.
Early estimates for the WWA PPV in Las Vegas are around 31,000 PPV buys. Keep in mind, early estimates are always about 10-25% higher than what the final number ends up being. WWA needed 35,000 just to break-even on this show so even with the inflated number, they didn't do it. So the show is undoubtedly a money-loser, but no idea just how badly yet (spoiler: pretty badly).
Notes from Raw: it was the WWF Draft show! Dave calls it "the latest Russo-like reset of the promotion." Rock was drafted #1 for Smackdown while Undertaker was drafted #1 for Raw. It was announced that Austin wasn't eligible for being drafted and will be a free agent, so they'll figure that out later. Dave says, if you follow the storylines, it makes no sense why Ric Flair would pick Undertaker as his #1 pick (this being the guy he just had a bloodbath with at Wrestlemania and they didn't even bother to explain why Flair picked him). With his next pick, Flair selected the NWO. Once again, just a few weeks ago, Flair was ready to sign over his share of the company and leave the WWF entirely to keep Vince from bringing in the NWO. And now, with no explanation, he's drafted them to Raw. Billy & Chuck and the NWO got drafted together as a team, but the Dudleyz got split apart. Why?! None of this makes sense and Dave is so frustrated with how little thought they put into this after having a year to plan it. (Rewinderman short rant: everybody talks about all the reasons WWE has declined in popularity over the last 20 years and there's always different theories. Bad booking, not creating new stars, not pushing the right people, etc. etc. But I have my own theory that I never hear anyone say: I think it's the lack of attention to detail. Ever since WCW went out of business, Vince has been painting in broad, dumbed down brush strokes, over-explaining dumb, simple storylines, with none of the attention to detail that makes people get invested in a story. Anyway, enough of my opinions). Brock Lesnar came out and beat up a bunch of people again, which he's been doing on every show since his debut. In this case, he threw Rikishi around like a rag doll and Dave says that's one strong fella. They did an angle where Stephanie lost a match and was forced to "leave the WWF" and she was dragged out by security while the crowd sang the goodbye song to her. But Dave says they did this exact same thing with Stephanie in November and that lasted all of 5 weeks before she was back so don't get too excited (sure enough, she'll be back 3 months after this).
Notes from Smackdown: Rico Constantino debuted as the stylist for Billy & Chuck and Dave says that's a dead-end gimmick if there ever was one. He also got a haircut and looks like a totally different person from his OVW days. Rico is a fantastic wrestler and everyone from OVW to front office guys like Jim Ross have gone to bat for him and said he's ready to be a star. But he's small and he's on the older side, so this is clearly where Vince sees him (yeah, even Bruce Prichard later said that pretty much everyone in the company saw star-potential in Rico.....except Vince). Edge vs. Booker T had a rematch that was much better than their Wrestlemania match. And X-Pac debuted (with "a new physique", wink wink) and joined the NWO and they beat down Hogan and got major heat because Hogan is so over right now.
Kevin Nash and Scott Hall showed up several hours late to the Smackdown tapings in Ottawa and the first thing Nash did upon arrival was complain loudly to anyone who would listen about Rock calling him "Big Daddy Bitch" the night before on Raw, saying Rock double-crossed him and Nash hadn't approved that line. Considering all the times Nash went against the script in WCW, needless to say, there were lots of rolled eyes at that. Especially after showing up late also. To make it up to him, during the tag match on Smackdown, they had a spot where Nash yelled "Who's the bitch now?" at him and Michael Cole made sure to bring attention to it on commentary so nobody missed it, so now they're even and now everything is okay I guess. Dave says Nash and Rock smoothed things over between them later because Nash is smart enough to know that making an enemy of The Rock isn't in his best interest. But he was extremely pissed about the line.
Variety reported the new movie Rock is going to be filming later this year will be called Helldorado. It's an action-adventure movie and Rock plays a bounty hunter who heads to the Amazon jungle to capture someone and ends up joining the guy to trying to retrieve something from a local mine (close enough. The movie ends up being renamed The Rundown).
Paul Heyman has dropped significant weight since he was last on TV back in November. Even if they're not a wrestler, Vince wants everyone on television to be "cosmetically presentable."
Assorted WWF notes: Lita is filming an episode of the FOX show "Dark Angel" soon (spoiler: this turns out very poorly for Lita). Steve Blackman is still out with a neck injury and now he gets crippling migraine headaches when he tries to work out or take bumps and Dave says it's possibly career-threatening (indeed, it forces him to retire). Chris Jericho's band Fozzy will be performing at WWF New York next week. The Rock is about to be featured on every TV show and on the cover of every magazine in existence over the next few weeks as part of the Scorpion King promotion.
Dave talks about the current second season of Tough Enough and how interest is way down from the first season. He also kinda gives it a brief review and just says it's boring and nothing really entertaining happens. In the first season, Tazz was the hard ass tough guy trainer to Al Snow's nice guy routine. When Tazz did it, it felt like he was doing it to teach the students respect and was trying to do it in a positive way. This season, Bob Holly is the "bad cop" and he comes across like a complete asshole who is bullying people without any intention of doing it in a way that makes them work harder or become better wrestlers (yeah, you think it's bad now, just wait until season 3 when he starts beating the shit out of Matt Cappotelli).
WWF is going to be working with the Ozzfest concert tour this summer. WWF wrestlers will sign autographs and introduce bands at many of the tour stops and several of the bands will perform on Raw later this year. "That's what happens when there's no Nitro," Dave deadpans.
Regarding the multiple hardcore title changes at Wrestlemania 18, there was discussions about having some of them happen at the CN Tower in Toronto. With the idea that they would brawl into the elevator and end up fighting out onto the outdoor observation deck (like, 100 floors up). But a few weeks before the show, for whatever reason, WWF changed their mind and decided not to pursue it.
Bret Hart recently agreed to work Jacques Rougeau's next indie event at the Molson Center. If you recall, just a few months ago, Rougeau drew a crowd of more than 10,000 to one of his indie shows there. When Vince McMahon found out Hart was going to work the show, he tried to pull a power move and get the Molson Center to give him an exclusivity deal, which would block Rougeau (and anyone else) from being able to run the building. Didn't work and Rougeau's show will go forward as planned as of now (Vince used to do that shit all the time in the 80s to Jim Crockett).
Rey Mysterio hasn't signed with WWF yet but it's considered just a formality. They gave him a low-ball contract offer, far less than he would make just working indies. Of course, it's just his downside guarantee. When you factor in gate money, merch money, video game money, etc. then he stands to make far more than he would on the indies. But if he gets hurt, he'll be sitting at home making very little money. On the other hand, if he gets hurt on the indies, he'll be making no money so better than nothing. Anyway, sounds like Rey shot down the first low-ball offer but they're expected to agree on a deal soon.
Dave has seen more of the TSN Off The Record interviews they did with several WWF stars last week. Ric Flair talked about how much of a disaster WCW was and put over Vince. Dave says that this isn't just Flair publicly kissing the boss's ass. Privately for years, Flair has only said good things about Vince McMahon, dating back to his first run in the early 90s. Even all the years he was in WCW, Flair only had good things to say about him. During the interview, Flair was asked to name someone who could have been an all-time great but didn't have the work ethic. Flair said he couldn't think of anyone off the top of his head, leading Dave to write, "I was screaming Barry Windham but nobody heard me." Jim Ross was next and blamed the environment in WCW for the backstage problems Hall and Nash caused. Dave points out that Hall and Nash caused all those same problems in WWF before they left in 1996 so that doesn't exactly check out. Undertaker's interview was interesting for the rare experience of seeing him out of character, just being Mark Calaway. When asked about something he hates about how the business has changed, Undertaker talked about the internet spoiling things and how it hurts the product when fans know about things in advance. Dave, of course, disputes this and gives an example using the show Friends. Before this season of the show started, TV Guide reported that Ross was going to wind up being the father of Rachel's baby and it was common knowledge. But the ratings were still through the roof for the "reveal." He also jokes that they could have swerved everybody and made it Gunther instead. Then he says if Russo was writing the show, he would have made himself a character called The Scriptwriter and made himself the father of Rachel's baby. (I've never watched Friends, these references are lost on me)
Latest on WWF pay cuts: aside from the very top guys, the company is trying to get most of the roster down to $125,000-or-less per year downside guarantees. Those who work full schedules will still make a lot more than that with PPV/ticket/merch percentages, plus they're doing more house shows this year and with the split rosters, more guys should be working more dates. Plus they raised the price of PPVs so the PPV pay-offs will be bigger. So these pay cuts won't really hurt the full-time stars. But of course, if you get hurt and you're sitting at home only collecting your downside, that's gonna be a lot less money now. So that sucks. On the flip side, WCW used to do the opposite, where guys were hurt and they still collected their full salary, which led to a lot of guys milking "injuries" so they could stay home and cash big ol' checks. So then WCW decided to start cutting people's pay in half when they were out for too long, and that led to people who were legitimately injured coming back too soon because they had bills to pay. So there's a delicate balance that you have to strike there. Also, as part of the new contracts they're trying to get everyone to sign, they're attempting to lock everyone into 3-to-5 year deals because Vince wants to make sure nobody can jump ship and help one of these new start-up promotions like XWF or WWA or the new Jarrett company get off the ground.
Ric Flair is still working on his autobiography that Mark Madden was helping to ghost-write for him. WWF is now attempting to buy the rights for that book away from the original publisher so they can publish it on their own. No word if Mark Madden will still be included or if they'll re-do it (WWF did eventually get it and released it. It has another author listed but still says "edited by" Mark Madden so who knows how much of his contributions made it into the final product).
After Naoya Ogawa took pictures with several WWF names at Wrestlemania, he went back to Japan and I guess got the media stirred up about possibly working with them. Some media outlets have talked about WWF running a Tokyo Dome event headlined by Ogawa vs. The Rock. Dave says this is pure bullshit.
WEDNESDAY:AJPW Triple Crown champion Toshiaki Kawada injured, more on WWF pay cuts, business analysis, the history of wrestling/shoot fighting, more on Steve Austin walking out, and more...
Under is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 games following a loss.
Under is 6-0-1 in Mariners last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-0-2 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 7-1-1 in Mariners last 9 overall.
Under is 7-1-1 in Mariners last 9 games as an underdog.
Under is 7-1-1 in Mariners last 9 on grass.
Under is 6-1-1 in Mariners last 8 vs. American League West.
Under is 4-1-1 in Mariners last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Mariners last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 3-1-1 in Mariners last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 13-5-1 in Mariners last 19 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 20-8-2 in Mariners last 30 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Under is 7-3 in Mariners last 10 Sunday games.
Under is 37-16-1 in Mariners last 54 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Houston Trends -
Over is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 overall.
Over is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 games following a win.
Over is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 games as a home favorite.
Over is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 on grass.
Over is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 vs. American League West.
Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 home games.
Over is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 10-2-1 in Astros last 13 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 Sunday games.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Over is 8-3-1 in Astros last 12 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over is 13-5-3 in Astros last 21 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 9-4 in Astros last 13 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
MAC has a packed MLB card today, 3 Red Alert MLB Wagers and a MLS special release play going off tonight between -New York City Fc Vs Toronto Fc - Join the Patreon for all MAC's money makers, just $7.00 a month + members get exclusive access to MAC's Stock Picks!
-A lot of the crew got a virus and Sophie got it at the end as well. She had a 102 degree fever and was throwing up for 5 days, and spent the airplane ride home in a fetal position in the airplane bathroom. -Would have been an advocate for Tony had she been able to participate at FTC -Probably would vote for Tony over Sarah in a F3, and Sarah would have had to really convince her. She would likely vote Sarah if tony wasn’t at F3 -She got a call in January that she would be on. Stephen advised her to not actively pregame, but not to say no if people reach out to her, which she thinks was good advice. Nick and Michele messaged her on twitter pregame. She says there was some bitterness about pregaming, but people like Yul, who pregamed a lot, don’t have the 10 year friendships other people do, so he had to pregame otherwise he would be behind. Yul, nick and Michele took pregaming seriously and had a conference call together. -Sophie talked with Yul on the phone prior to the game. She had met Yul prior and knew him a little bit and had an actual pre-existing relationship. Sandra called Sophie two days before they flew out and it meant nothing to Sophie since she had no prior relationship with Sandra. DAKAL: -Nick, Wendell, Sophie and Yul got together really early. Sophie was also aligned early with amber, Kim and Tyson. She thinks the edit was accurate in that Nick/Wendell/Yul/Sophie were in the middle. She thought they were gonna bounce back and forth between the two sides, but they didn’t lose enough challenges for that to be the case. -Sophie was playing both sides the entire preswap, and was worried it would blow up on her, as she was aligned with Yul/Sandra and also with Tyson/Kim. Tony was supposed to leave second in the tribe, but that changed because Tyson when started targeting the Yul/Sophie/Nick/Wendell group. -Sophie wanted the Sandra/Tony side and Kim/Tyson side to keep going at each other and she was trying to foster hate between the two sides so they wouldn’t come after the people in the middle. After they got back from the third immunity challenge, Sandra was telling everyone that Tyson was motioning to Rob and pointing at the people who voted amber out (in retrospect Sophie thinks Sandra made this up), and Sophie ratted out Sandra to Tyson. Then Tyson ratted out Sophie to Sandra and Sandra confronted Sophie about it, and Sophie felt like she had to grovel to Sandra for a while. There was a day where Tyson tried to align the Kim/Tyson faction and the Tony/Sarah/Sandra faction and target the people in the middle, and that was a very scary day. She thinks if Tyson hadn’t done that, the people in the middle would have flipped to the Tyson/Kim side next vote and taken out Tony. The idea f the unconnected four was to not let either side get too big so they could stay in the middle. -There was a Yul/Sandra suballiance that nobody knew about. -The first vote off was initially gonna be Tyson. Sophie wanted Amber to go since she had met Tyson in real life multiple times. -Sophie became very close with Kim, and to a lesser extent Sarah, on old Dakal. Sophie was always hesitant about working closely with Kim because she saw One World and didn’t want to be duped by her, so she always had her guard up. Sophie was always nervous about Kim because of Kim’s reputation. They were always close allies and shared a lot of info with each other , but always felt Kim would screw her over at some point. She had an easier time trusting Sarah because Sarah was less charming and more flawed than Kim, and because she thought she would have a better shot against Sarah than Kim in a jury vote. Sophie thinks Kim’s reputation really worked against her. -Sarah’s super strength is bonding with people, and Sarah and Sophie bonded quickly. Sarah didn’t have the reputation of being the greatest social player ever, while Kim did have that reputation, so Sophie had an easier time trusting Sarah for that reason. -Sarah had a great read on people and in their first conversation, told Sophie that she bets Sophie wrote Sarah’s name down as the person she wants to leave first to Dalton Ross (which was correct), but that they will actually be friends and are very alike. -Sophie wanted someone from the Sandra/Sarah/Tony group (preferably Tony) to go second but the two things that prevented that were Tyson targeting the unconnected people, and the secret alliance between Sandra and Yul. YARA -Sophie was very unhappy and nervous about her new tribe, but within seconds of being on the beach Ben was winking at her and giving thumbs up signs to her. Adam/Ben/Rob all hated each other and had things to say about each other. -The plan to vote off rob happened days before, but they weren’t able to confirm anything the day of -One of the first things Rob told Sophie is that Parvati said she was friends with Sophie and told rob to work with Sophie if they swap together. -Ben and Sarah became close very quickly, and Sophie also became close with Ben, and viewed Sophie/Ben/Sarah as a tight trio. Sophie thinks ben is a nice guy and a strong player and someone she would have potentially voted for in the end next to the right people. She is confused about viewers and players perceptions of him and doesn’t understand how people could dislike him. She trusted ben and Sarah and didn’t think they would ever vote her out. They reminded her of her allies in SP and seemed very loyal. -Sophie also had an alliance with Adam but didn’t view it as real and told Adam she saw Sarah slip something into her pocket. Sophie was playing both sides and telling Sarah and ben everything Adam was telling her -Sophie participated in the Yara vilification of Rob, which took place while rob was still there, and long after he left. It was partially real, but it’s also good strategy on survivor to bond with others about hatred for somebody else, and this was a big part in Sophie/Sarah/Ben bonding together. Adam would sometimes not participate or say “come on guys” and that’s something that ostracized Adam from the Sarah/Sophie/Ben group a bit. -Sophie thinks idol finding is a lot about luck because she was just half hazardly looking while Ben and Rob were climbing trees, and she still found it randomly at the base of a tree. -Sophie was feeding Adam false info about Sarah having the idol and told Adam she saw Sarah slip something into her pocket. She was playing both sides and telling ben and Sarah everything that Adam was telling her. One time Sarah and Ben ripped into Adam after Sophie told them something Adam said, and this frustrated Sophie because it revealed to Adam that Sophie was leaking their convos. Sophie felt like Adam didn’t trust her after that and wrote him off as a number, which was a mistake because Adam actually did still trust her and want to work with her. MERGE: -Sophie was pissed and shocked that Yul left and it made her distrust Nick and Wendell. On Dakal Sophie was closest to Yul, and Yul really owned the nick and Wendell relationships, and without Yul, Sophie’s relationships with Sarah and Kim were much stronger than her relationships with Wendell and Nick. Yara planned to align with NuDakal at the swap since they each had someone on Dakal they wanted to protect. Sarah wanted to protect Tony, Sophie wanted to protect Kim, Adam wanted to protect Denise and Ben wanted to protect Jeremy. Two reasons Wendell left rather than nick were that Wendell had more connections (Jeremy/Michele) while Nick was a free agent, and Sophie and Yul never really trusted Wendell so she wanted him out anyways. -Jeremy really wanted nick out and was telling everyone that the decision has been made for nick to leave, when that wasn’t true at all. -People were really hesitant to throw names out because it would always get back to them. Sophie threw out Tyson’s name and nick went back and told Tyson. No person was really pushing for any one person to leave early merge, it was more so people saying they were fine with any of these three or four people leaving. -Sophie had met Jeremy in real life and was willing to work with him, but Sophie would try to have conversations with her and he showed zero interest in working with Sophie and she quickly got the cold shoulder from Jeremy. Sophie heard that Tyson and Jeremy were throwing her name out, and she asked Jeremy who was throwing out her name, and Jeremy told Sophie not to worry about it, which really pissed Sophie off. She felt jeremy was weirdly antagonistic, which was weird to Sophie given they had met in real life before -Tyson coming back wasn’t great for Sophie because she thinks it negatively affected her relationship with Kim, because she thought Kim would go back with Tyson and Jeremy, even though in actuality Kim was prioritizing Sophie. -Sophie’s three really close allies were Sarah, Ben and Kim -Sarah always told Sophie that when she went after Tony, not to tell her and to do it without her. Sophie never wanted to go to the end with tony and felt she had Sarah’s blessing to take him out at some point. F11 Adam told Sophie that the votes were on Sarah and there was nothing she could do about it. Sophie wanted nick to go and didn’t want to lose Sarah or Adam. F10 vote explanation: -Kim and Sophie had had a very tight alliance up until this point. At some point, Ben and Tony came up to Sophie and Sarah and told them that Kim was gunning for Sophie, and Sophie’s mind was blown. Sophie was a little bit happy because it affirmed her suspicion Kim would screw her over. -Up until this point, Sarah/Sophie/Kim were super close. But the backstory to this vote is that Tyson took Sarah aside and told Sarah that Kim is really strong a threat to win and they have to take Kim out. Sophie didn’t really trust Tyson and thought he was just trying to sow discord, but after that, Sarah started saying (and you can see this in the episode), “let’s get rid of Kim”, which Sophie was not on board with because she thought it was a ruse from Tyson to screw them over. -The other thing that happened that day that swayed Kim, is that Tyson and Jeremy walked up to Kim and asked if she had any friends in this game, and Kim said Sarah and Sophie. Tyson and Jeremy told Kim she was wrong and that Sarah and Sophie are not her friends. Tyson and Jeremy told Kim this long story about how Sarah and Sophie were always making fun of Kim behind her back and weren’t actually with Kim. This flipped the switch with Kim (and this part was in the episode) and Kim started targeting Sophie. An hour before tribal, Sophie learned that Kim, one of her closest allies, was gunning for her. Sophie still felt confident she had the numbers, but she still pushed for Sarah to use the steal a vote just in case (which Sarah didn’t really want to do since she thought it was unnecessary). Sarah wanted to tell Ben about the steal a vote before it was played so he wouldn’t feel blindsided, but they didn’t have time to, and ben did feel blindsided and upset that Sarah was hiding info from him. -Jeremy was going to leave and they had the numbers to vote him out, but Ben and Tony were telling Jeremy and Kim that they were with them. The Kim/Jeremy side thought they were going to be able to get Sophie out because they believed ben and tony were on their side. Sophie knew they thought that, but she really trusted Ben and felt confident jeremy was leaving. -At tribal there were fun moments between Sophie and Kim because it was out in the open they were on opposite sides and each thought they had the numbers. -After Jeremy left, Sophie called a huddle because she knew the other sides votes were going on her and wanted to make sure her side had a plan, and because she wanted there to be a clear line in the sand, so Tony wasn’t able to play both sides. -Sarah wanted to bring Michele into the huddle and have Michele vote with them, but Sophie didn’t trust Michele since Michele and Sophie talked earlier that day and Michele was telling really obvious and crazy lies. When Michele came into the huddle, Sophie freaked out and told her not to talk to Tyson or Kim, or I’m going to vote you out. -Sophie and Jeremy got into a tiff after tribal and she brattily went up to Jeremy and asked him who he thought was going to go home, knowing that he was targeting her and was pissed she was still there. -Sophie was happy with the division in the tribe but wanted to mend her relationship with Kim, since she learned it all stemmed from a misunderstanding from Tyson, and Sophie still wanted to work with Kim. She also liked Denise and wanted to work with Denise. Sophie saw jeremy and Michele as the next two easy votes. -Sophie and Tony got into a tiff because Sophie told Michele what was going to happen, and Tony was going around lying to people, trying to repair his double dealing. It certainly didn’t work with Kim, but it definitely worked with Jeremy. Jeremy was totally duped by Tony and believed everything Tony said and it baffled Sophie. Tony played jeremy really well and she doesn’t think that was ever real on Tony’s side. -After the Tyson tribal, Sophie/Sarah/Kim all got back together and got on the same page, they had a partially strategy and partially personal talk, because the reason Kim flipped on Sophie wasn’t because Tyson was telling her “Sophie is gonna win the game and take you out”, but rather “Sophie and Sarah are making fun of you and don’t see you as their friend”. They had an honest convo where Sarah admitted she was targeting Kim, and the three of them agreed to stick together and be stronger than ever, which you can see in the next vote where Sarah/Sophie/Kim (and Denise) vote together. -Sophie’s core alliance, and who she always wanted to go to the final 3 with, was ben and Sarah. Sophie never wanted to go to the end with Kim, but didn’t plan on taking out Kim anytime soon. -In a mistake, at some point Sophie decided Tony was just crazy and she was gonna let him do his thing, since Tony being crazy and running around like a second grader was harmless up until that point. -Sophie thought the Sophie/Sarah/Ben/Nick/Tony group was very strong and she didn’t think Tony would do anything without Sarah, which made her confident tony was with her. -Sophie knew about the extortion thing and viewed it as Tony fooling Jeremy again. -Sophie’s biggest regret is not remembering who tony was, and getting complacent about that relationship. Sophie felt more betrayed by tony than by nick, since she was closer to Tony -Sophie was shocked when she was voted out and was trying not to cry. -Sophie always felt like an underdog in the game because of her perception of a lower tier winner she thought she would have to do something really big to win a jury vote, but when she went to edge she realized she didn’t need to do that and people thought she was playing a strong game. -Yul took Sophie aside on edge and told her that every time someone comes to edge people agree not to be nice to them, and not to tell them anything, but I’m going to be nice to you. Yul told everyone that when they came to edge. There was a lot of drama on edge. -Sophie bought peanut butter and shared it with Kim. -Sophie was willing to vote for Natalie under the right circumstances. -Sophie thinks ranking players is silly because you could play WAW 20 times and get 20 different winners, and everyone has different strengths and just because of how things happen to fall on one occasion, isn’t representative of much. Compared it to the MLB, how you can’t tell how good someone is just by watching one game. -Sophie and Adam talked on the boat ride to the F6 tribal about how they do think there is something sexist about people’s perception of Sarah. She thinks one of the things that people didn’t like about Sarah is how she wants to be badass, but also feels guilty about it. She thinks a lot of Sarah’s guilt is gender driven -When Denise got voted out people at ponderosa were really awful to her and yelled at her for no good reason.
TL;DR:CLV can be a useful alternative measurement for performance, but is ultimately a flawed metric Purpose of CLV The primary purpose of CLV is an alternative measurement of performance. The theory is that if you’re getting enough CLV to cover the vig, you should be a winner in the long term. Many “pros” claim that it's best to benchmark performance based on CLV rather than actual outcomes. Sportsbooks can also use it as a measurement to assess whether a sports bettor is a “sharp” or a “square”, sometimes limiting or even outright banning bettors who consistently beat CLV. This assertion relies heavily on the efficient market hypothesis. Efficient Market Hypothesis Without giving you a financial theory history lesson, very simply the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that the price of an asset reflects all known information and that consistent alpha generation is impossible. Sports betting translation: the only way to bet profitably is to generate CLV and it’s impossible to generate +EV if you only bet right before the game starts. If you bet the Closing Line you should expect to lose an amount equal to the vig in the long-term. Quite simply – this is bullshit. Various forms of EMH may apply to liquid financial markets, but I’m going to make the argument that while CLV is useful, the Closing Line is far from efficient. Is the Market Efficient? Market efficiency is often characterized as having the following attributes: 1.Immediate absorption of new information 2.Important information is freely available to all participants 3.A large number of rational, profit maximizing market participants Let’s review these assertions one-by-one. 1.Immediate Absorption of New Information In an efficient market, the only thing that moves the price of an asset is new information. If this were true, we should be able to identify long periods of static lines, as no new information has been revealed. Let’s check out a recent example of how reactive the markets are to new information: On January 11, 2020 the OKC Thunder hosted the LA Lakers. Around 1:30pm ET, news broke that LeBron would miss the game. Naturally, that injury announcement had a large impact on the odds for both teams. A time series plot of the Thunder’s breakeven win probability is shown below. Time Series of an OKC LAL game win probability The lines almost immediately improved the Thunder’s breakeven win % from ~50% to ~65%. Without giving a chance for the lines to reach a new equilibrium, another bombshell was dropped at 1:54pm ET: Anthony Davis was questionable. The lines continued to move in the Thunder’s direction for the next hour or so before seemingly reaching an equilibrium a little after 3pm ET. When it was finally announced that AD was downgraded to Out around 45 minutes before tip, the line began to further trend toward OKC. So how should we judge these movements? Did the market immediately factor in new information? Although the market reacted fairly well, there was still some opportunity to get a bet in before the market reached a new equilibrium, particularly with regard to the AD news. I would say that the market may not have fully reacted immediately, but this isn’t enough evidence to disprove the EMH. We are 0 for 1. 2.Important Information is Freely Available to All Participants Does everyone have access to the same information? Certainly not everyone would agree with me, but I generally believe that most sports information is freely available these days. The barrier to information is lower than it’s ever been. People use information in different ways, to give them certain edges, but I don’t think that information asymmetry is a reason to disprove EMH. We are now 0 for 2... 3.A Large Number of Rational, Profit Maximizing Market Participants I think we can all agree that the drunk guy parlaying the Gatorade color and coin flip at the Super Bowl might not be rational or profit maximizing. And judging by a few Reddit comments there are plenty of sports bettors who aren’t strictly profit maximizers (please if this is any of you, please don't feel personally attacked): “I'm not going to be dealing with 7 different bookies just to raise my ROI by .1 or .5 or even 1%.” “I tend to gamble more when I’m bored” “I was drunk and wanted to bet so I threw down 5 units on an Australian women's basketball game on a blind tip from the Nitrogen chat room.” The vast majority of sports bettors aren’t profit maximizers, but utility maximizers. Sports betting offers a form of exhilaration and entertainment that can’t be found in other places. A lot of that excitement manifests itself in poor-EV-yet-thrilling wagers (such as parlays, teasers and futures) that sportsbooks happily offer you. Just how much are non-profit maximizing behaviors costing sports bettors? To answer that, let’s take a peak at the Nevada’s annual sports betting report. In 2019, sportsbooks in Nevada took $5.3 billion in wagers and held $329 million, representing a hold of 6.2%. Previously we discussed how standard -110 odds gave sportsbooks a hold of 4.5%, which we could chisel away at pretty easily with some basic line shopping. Thus, if market participants we’re truly profit maximizers, we’d expect a hold significantly less than 6.2%. OK – so finally we have some evidence that the EMH might not hold. Let’s see if we can test it with some data. TestingWeak Form Efficiency The three forms of market efficiency are Strong Form, Semi-Strong Form, and Weak Form. The Strong Form assumes that all information (private and public) is baked into the market. The Semi-Strong Form assumes that all public information is baked into the market price of an asset. The Weak Form states that historical prices cannot be used to predict future prices. If we can prove that the weakest form of the EMH can be disproved, we can disregard the EMH. Straight from Morningstar: “The weak form of EMH assumes that current stock prices fully reflect all currently available security market information. It contends that past price and volume data have no relationship with the future direction of security prices. It concludes that excess returns cannot be achieved using technical analysis.” MLB Moneyline Movements Let’s go ahead and use MLB ML data from the 2015-2018 seasons to see if we can predict the direction of the closing line, and therefore generate theoretical value (CLV) by beating the closing line. We gathered the Closing Line as well as the line 2-hours to close (T-2) to see if we can recognize any patterns. We can then test the statistical significance of those patterns to give us a sense of whether they have any merit. The traditional school of thought is that if you’re betting favorites, it’s best to bet them early. If a dog, wait until close to gametime. Does this hold merit? The first thing we can do is test the average deviation of prices from a 50/50 probability. Closing Lines had an average deviation of 44 cents, while T-2 had an average deviation of 42 cents over 9,813 games in our sample. If we look at the distribution, we see that there are more games with an average deviation greater of 100 or more at close than at T-2. Average Deviation Yes, the curves look similar. But if we focus on the difference between the two, we can identify a more significant pattern. Difference Between Close and T-2 What the above shows is that there are more “close” games at T-2 and more “mismatches” at Close. Huh? How can that be? Answer: lines must move toward the favorite from T-2 to Close. Let’s dive a little further and focus on games that have a significant favorite. We pulled out games that have an underdog of +180 or greater at T-2. In total we had 1,208 games. Of those 1,208 games, 657 (54%) had line movement toward the favorite, 404 (33%) had line movement toward the underdog, and 147(12%) did not have any movement. The average movement of the favorite was -3.4 cents, from -224.0 to -227.2. Visually, we can look at the distributions of movement below. Line Movement Distribution Clearly, the data suggests a movement toward the favorites in the last two hours, suggesting that we can capture positive CLV simply by betting favorites 2 hours prior to first pitch. This “strategy” violates weak form EMH, which states that past prices have no relationship with future price movements. If this isn’t enough evidence to disregard the EMH, I pose you this: are the MLB markets systemically mispricing favorites two hours prior to first pitch, only to correct this mispricing from T-2 to Close? I find it hard to believe. Optimizing for CLV vs Optimizing for Profit The evidence above provided a theoretically argument why the EHM can be largely disregarded and therefore CLV should not be the target that bettors are optimizing for. A more practical reason why CLV should not be the target: because CLV is fairly simple to measure, it is the primary way that sportsbooks designate who is sharp and who is square. With so many sportsbooks practicing the strategy of limiting or banning sharp bettors, it’s probably not ideal to optimize for a strategy that 1) rests heavily on the assumption of an efficient market and 2) firmly puts you on the radar of sportsbooks.  This is the line available two-hours prior to first pitch.
Baseball History may be ever Changing but some things never Change
Baseball history, like all history, certainly is ever changing, but some aspects of the game have remained unchanged for well over a half-century. There are a few reasons for this - over time the basic rules of the game have for the most part remained unaltered; the development of essential skills continues to involve an investment of time and personnel by ball clubs; and fans have always flocked to see money players and exciting teams. In 1976, Major League Baseball (MLB) was changed forever with the birth of free agency. Since its inception, the owners had held power over all players. They could trade anyone at anytime and control, with relative ease, what individuals would be paid. Great players, like Babe Ruth, usually commanded solid salaries but with free agency players were able to negotiate their contracts and to go to a team willing to pay their price. Still, as it had always been, players had to have the skills a team needed to get their price. The one major difference was that players were now able to sign guaranteed contracts, which stated that they would be paid their salary no matter how they performed and even if they were injured. Seventy-three years before free agency, professional baseball underwent a change that would influence the way in which the Majors conducted business and found players. In 1903 the National Association of Professional Base Ball Leagues, better known as the Minor Leagues, was formed in order to create some order in which Major League teams acquired players from small market clubs. In the 1930s the great Branch Rickey developed the structure for what we know today as the "Minor Leagues." Rickey’s formalization of the "Minors," which became dedicated to developing players who could perform in the Majors, was jokingly called the "farm system" because small town clubs were raising young players "like corn" down on the farm. Since the 1930s, MLB has relied upon affiliate farm teams to develop players for the big leagues to supply promising prospects for trades, or to simply provide adequate replacements when necessary. Today, the Minor League system is highly developed, bringing players up through A, AA, and AAA ball. When a team is looking to make a trade for a solid Major Leaguer, one way they can sweeten the deal is by including prospects from the minors. Additionally, one way for owners to keep costs down is to bring up players from the "farm team" when they’re ready. By doing this a MLB team can save millions of dollars. Bringing up an adequate second baseman from the minors and paying him the minimum $327,000 for the season can prove to have more value than paying a veteran infielder 2.5 million dollars. Using a certain number of non-veterans allows a team to spend more money on other positions, especially pitching, which is always at a premium and comes at a high price. The Minor Leagues have always been a cost-saving venture for clubs but with today’s exorbitant salaries, the strength of the players union, and most clubs carrying payrolls of under one-hundred million dollars, the strategic use of Minor League players can make the difference in both turning a profit and winning the World Series. Using players from the farm club actually gives owners more power, since those team members who have been brought up are not eligible for salary arbitration until they have three years in the Majors and cannot become free agents until they’ve accumulated six or more years in the big leagues. Today, for a brief part of a player’s career, National and American League owners have the power they used to possess over every player prior to 1976. Teams looking to win a championship and attract as much revenue as possible have often invested money in key players. Throughout baseball’s history, there have been owners willing to pay more than others. In 1919, some of the Chicago White Sox, which was owned by Charles Comiskey, decided to throw the World Series to their National League counterparts, the Cincinnati Reds. The White Sox players felt they were both underpaid and under-appreciated by their boss and figured if they bet on the underdog Reds and insured that the National Leaguers would win, they’d make a tidy profit. They did just that, but they also got caught. It became known as the Black Sox Scandal of 1919, and it’s a constant reminder to owners of how a man like Comiskey, who had a whole lot of money, could be penny-wise and pound-foolish. Of course, spending a lot of money does not insure a team will win the World Series or even the League Championship. Since the New York Yankees payroll exceeded one hundred millions dollars five years ago, they’ve been unable to win it all. The last few years Steinbrenner and company have been handing over two hundred million in team pay. Last year’s champs, the Chicago White Sox, paid out a little over seventy-five million to their players. It was ironic, because they had not won the Series since 1917, prior to the big scandal. Most analysts agree that a MLB club needs to wisely spend about seventy million to be competitive. That’s why some pundits believe that the Toronto Blue Jays, who reached that magic salary mark this season by adding quality players and about thirty million to their pay roll, are a club to watch. The basic idea at work regarding salary prior to free agency is that a happy player - one who feels he’s being treated and paid fairly - can equal a happy owner with a winning team. After free agency, the thought became that in order to compete a team had to pay a player what the market dictated and owners, to a degree, had the ability to control that market. These are, in essence, two sides of the same coin. If we could resurrect Cy Young, Shoeless Joe Jackson, and Home Run Baker and bring them out to the ballpark, they’d certainly still understand the game, even though it has changed. Since their time, there has been the development of specialty pitchers, creation of artificial turf, and the addition of the designated hitter in the American League. The mound, strike zone, and scoreboards are all different too. Player skills are still fundamentally the same, except more advanced. They would get the idea that a better player should command more money than a player with less skill. But the overall economics of the game would probably baffle those great players. That has added a new type of off-field strategy that owners who want to win must master. Since the turn of the 19th century, it’s been the greatest change MLB has seen. Gear for climbing, mountaineering and outdoor sports - buy online https://www.bergfreunde.eu/?pid=16114
I have mixed feelings today about the dismissal of Neal Huntington from his GM post of the Pirates. Recency bias and mob mentality would have you believe NH was the crux of all of our problems this season, that his magic wore off and his ill-timed moves led to our demise. Watching Gerrit Cole prosper this season and seeing Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow perform at an all-star level felt like an avalanche of misjudgment came piling down all at once. In order to properly evaluate NH's tenure, it is paramount to remember the disaster he inherited from prior GM Dave Littlefield. For those of you who don't remember, Littlefield was an unmitigated failure who was out of his league. Not only did his moves not work, they didn't make sense. He tried to put band-aids on a sinkhole, signing past-their-prime veterans to temporarily attempt to alleviate the dearth of organizational talent. He was a man with no plan, a captain lost at sea. He left the cupboard nearly empty, save for a certain first-rounder from Fort Meade. Say what you will about Huntington, he at least came in with a plan, and at times executed with legitimate success. Because of the unbridled and unified cynicism of Pittsburgh baseball fans, there seems to be a mental block from the 2013-2015 era, when the Pirates averaged over 93 wins a season - the second most in baseball. The manager who was tied to Huntington for the majority of his tenure was Clint Hurdle, who finished his career in Pittsburgh with a winning record during his nine seasons on the North Shore. At 735-720, you could win a few beers around town betting gruff yinzers if Hurdle was above the arbitrary .500 level. There were no World Series titles, as those teams ran into some of the hottest arms in MLB playoff history .. a historically scorching Madison Bumgarner in '14 and a dominant Jake Arrieta in '15. Looking back at those rosters, the Bucs had a legitimate chance to win a title with a little fortune on the variance roller coaster that is playoff baseball. Our '13 rotation of Cole, Charlie Morton, A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano had more than enough juice when combined with an elite bullpen. If we caught some breaks, it could have turned out to be a Disneyesque underdog story. Instead, it will go down as a footnote to the consummation of The Streak - two decades of torture. As with any GM, there were plenty of misses during Huntington's reign. His rational plan to invest resources into the amateur draft and the Dominican Republic was one based from logic. Unfortunately, Pedro Alvarez's light tower power that led to HR titles was hampered by an undisciplined eye and a glove that rendered him unplayable. Gregory Polanco looked like the future, it simply has yet to manifest. The injuries to Jameson Taillon were impossible to predict, but made tougher to swallow when Manny Machado was taken the pick after him, or talents like Sale, Grandal, Yelich and Syndergaard went later in the draft. A true cynic would mention that Andrew McCutchen was drafted by the previous regime. The Cole/Archer disasters. Despite the miscues, there were also many clever hits. Swindling the Yankees out of Russell Martin and A.J. Burnett for pennies on the dollar. The trades for Charlie Morton and Josh Harrison. The development of Starling Marte. The "Searage Darlings" - Liriano, Burnett, Happ, Locke, Worley, Volquez. The bullpen discoveries - Grilli, Melancon, Watson, Wilson, Felipe (gulp). The foresight to bring in Francisco Cervelli to replace Martin. The ballsy move to offer Josh Bell first round money in the second round. Future building blocks like Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman. You win some, you lose some. The eulogy of the Huntington era must include mention of his greedy, cheap, and short-sighted owner. Despite Huntington and his front office showing promise while balling on a budget, his bosses never fully committed to sustained winning. There were occasional spikes in salary and talent when we first turned the corner, a feel-good story for a small-market club. Despite owning a lethal rotation and one of the greatest talents in the storied history of the franchise, the risk averse Nutting family never rolled the dice. Content with collecting their returns and watching the value of sports franchises skyrocket, the Nuttings chose to do the worse thing of all ... nothing. They rested on the laurels of their GM, hoping he could continue to find magic in the bargain basement of talent acquisition. The puppeteers were fortunate for a while, but as the great Johnny Cash said - you can run on for a long time, but sooner or later ... The dismissal of Huntington today is another form of the band-aid logic used by Littlefield. This past season was the most frustrating of my lifetime as a Pirates fan, both on the field and off. The public relations disasters, the precipitous decline on the field, the sentiment around the city that our Buccos were once again the laughingstock of baseball. I was so disgusted by it all I took a couple months off from posting here, trying to block out the noise. Was it time for Neal and Clint to go? Sure, you could make that argument. They had their chance, they ran their course. The most beautiful baseball property in the universe was making like it's team, wasting away peak years. But the bigger picture remains, this organization will never go to the places we would like to see with the current owners in place. And unfortunately, they can't be replaced.
What is the purpose of this sub? Putting money in your pocket. I have created a system that accurately predicts the outcome of most MLB games, with the legalization of sports betting I feel as though this is a great opportunity not only to share the discovery but to help you. To back up a bit, I stumbled across this system last summer while creating different DFS strategies, I was horrendous constantly never getting the right team stacks of which offense would go off. What I hadn’t realized was that I had created a system for predicting wins, not predicting runs. I tinkered with the system and have done so throughout the fall and winter testing on every single game day of 6 years of data. I can comfortably say that I have found a system that works.
What it will be: So I cannot predict every single game, it is ludicrous to make that kind of statement but I can predict between 3 to upwards of 6 or 7 games depending on the slate size (rare). A few notes is that no, they are not all massive -500 favorites, the opposite actually with some underdogs and projected close games. I recommend that you parlay in order to maximize your earnings.
How it works: There are trends, and I have found that two games of a starting pitcher is mostly place to look in order to project their 3rd game. I look at these stats: BABIP, B%, K%, O-Swing%, O-Contact%, Zone%, Zone-Contact% among a few other helpful and predictive stats that can be found on sites like Baseball Savant.
When can we start: I need at minimum two games of data from starting pitchers, with the current 2 week delay of opening day I can only project at the moment that I can begin the picks on or about April 24.
What I want from you: Nothing. Just patience. I don’t want your money or your thanks. I don’t want you to place a single bet until you feel comfortable in my picks. I will firmly say that the parlay win-rate will not be 90%, or 95% or 99% it will be 100% and the only way you can believe that is by waiting.
Why am I doing this: I don’t think it is right watching hacks get paid money to throw around picks and only hit on 40-60% of them. Nor do I think it’s right to watch people who need some money or may have a gambling problem be roped in by charlatans with bogus picks only to disappear and leave the bettor empty handed. But my purpose is deeper than that, the average American makes 59k a year with 47k in various debts. The sports betting industry made approximately 1.2 Trillion in revenue last year while only having to pay roughly 13% in taxes, which is the same as a person in America who makes between 9700 and 39k a year. There’s a pandemic going on, along with the beginning of a possible global recession which has/will cause many people to lose value in their 401k and retirement plans. People will more than likely be laid off in the oil industry as a result of the oil war between the Saudis and Russia. The last people who need over a trillion dollars with low taxes being paid back to the government or states are sportsbooks, with this subreddit we and our hopeful growing online community can create profit to not only help ourselves but our families and more than anything our communities. I don’t believe that greed is good but I do believe the more money that is in our hands as ordinary people around the world, the better the likelihood of us doing good. Call me naive but that’s what I sincerely believe.
If you have any questions at all feel free to PM me Please don’t exploit the information given on the sub, do better not worse.
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8:30 Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs Prairie View A&M Panthers
7:30 Memphis Grizzlies +2 vs Atlanta Hawks -2
(MAR 02) MAC GOT CRUSHED LAST NIGHT - A RARE NIGHT FOR THE MAC AS HE HAD SOME HEAVY LOSSES, NOT BEING PHASED IS THE NAME OF THE GAME TONIGHT!! 3 SPECIAL RELEASE PICKS + 3 RED ALERT PLAYS START @ 7:00! Red Alert Patreon Members now get The MAC'S personal wagers as a units per play system, betting the strongest information and games with odds that have very best optimal value/risk reward. The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure as he will cracking them open and cleaning them out with 3 Red Alerts Picks Tonight! NBA Red Alert - 7:30 Memphis Grizzlies +2 vs Atlanta Hawks -2 + 2 Big Game Red Alert CBB Picks and for Top Rated Patrons, MAC is moving heavy on special release action, 2 CBB bets and a NHL Major Move Alert on the Colorado Avalanche vs Detroit Red Wings total set at 5.5! Roland is anticipating a huge rebound day, and Red Alerts Picks are cash in the bank making interest! TheNBABETSSub-Reddit - (Free Play: Russell Westbrook will have more PTS than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic tonight +170) MAC GOT HIS LAST NIGHT - CBB HUSH MONEY ACTION NOW 37-15 FOR THE SEASON - MAC will be getting it done the way it's supposed to be done with 3 special release games on tap tonight! 1 NHL Major Move Alert - 7:38 Colorado Avalanche vs Detroit Red Wings & 2 Exclusive NCAAB Plays - HUSH MONEY ACTION - 9:00 Texas Tech +7.5 vs Baylor -7.5 + A Backroom Info Angle that will be another classic example of why they dub Roland MAC McGuillaman the most venerable betting source on the internet. The MAC has been picking off games all season and March Madness is his specialty, ripping down office pools and NCAAB March Madness Contests is just what the MAC does. 9:00 - NCAAB Hush Money Pick - Texas Tech +7.5 vs Baylor -7.5 Tonight's The Mac has a Big 12 Hush Money game play on the Red Raiders vs Baylor Bears! The Red raiders are 18 - 11 (3 - 6 Road) with a ATS record of 13 - 16 - 0(4 - 5 - 0 Road). The Baylor Bears are ranked second in the Big 12 standings and 4th over all while holding a ATS record of 18 - 10 - 0 (7 - 7 - 0 Home). Both teams are hunting for a championship and with Baylor having their last game against West Virginia this game could make a big difference for both teams. The Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Texas Tech Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog but are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The stock market is crashing and MAC's answering back with the very best college basketball sports investments available - MAC has the play at Patreon and on the Red Pass tonight - $25.00 Gets all MAC's Top Rated & Special Release Picks for 1 Month -$25.00 1 Month of all exclusive info CBB picks! Tonight our Top Rated Exclusive Play Members will be getting in onMAC'S NCAAB MAJOR MOVE PLAYon the 4:00 SOUTHERN MISS vs UTEP O/U 129 USA Conference show down plus all of tonight's Red Alert College Basketball & NBA Predictions. THE MAC HAS NBA GAME RED ALERT PLAY -7:30 Memphis Grizzlies +2 vs Atlanta Hawks -2 a Low Key NBA Game- A 5 UNIT play that holds the value we strive for when researching odds, trends and stats - MAC has been hitting the NBA Action hard and averaging around 63% this year for NBA bettors.
Hawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Hawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Grizzlies are 6-13 ATS in the last 19 meetings in Atlanta.
Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
(MAR 02) Monday's Free Special Wager Picks Below!
THE MAC'S TOP RATED RELEASE COLLEGE BASKETBALL RED ALERT PLAYS ARE UNSTOPPABLE THIS YEAR! - NCAAB Backroom Info Play - MD Eastern Shore +2 vs Howard -2 - (A mismatch game + A telling line = CBB CASH $) + Free MLB Spring Training Winner Today! Red Alert Wagers SS LLC Exclusive Releases & Red Alert Free Plays exhibit why Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman's reputation as THE PAYMASTER is galvanized in the gambling underworld as a dangerous low key sharp! He doesn't know where you been, but The MACS been dicking down the sports betting game since the Star Dust was the place to get a high end hooker and a cocktail! Baseball is almost back and MAC has a lean on thePhiladelphia Phillies +110 vs Atlanta Braves -130 6:00 Spring Training game + 2 Basketball MAC ATTACK Picks and some look ahead Exclusive MMA Releases today! March Madness is getting closer and MAC has been the man to go to for brackets, bust open your office pools and take all you're dorky co-workers cash with professional top rated March Madness Picks and Vegas tournament grade CBB bracket. **PREMIUM PLAYS*\* CBB RED ALERT PLAY (MAR 02) - (7:30 Memphis Grizzlies +2 vs Atlanta Hawks -2) CBB RED ALERT PLAY (MAR 02) - (7:00 NC State +12.5 vs Duke -12.5) CBB RED ALERT PLAY (MAR 02) - (8:30 Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs Prairie View A&M Panthers) Special Release Plays NHL MAJOR MOVE (MAR 02) - (7:38 Colorado Avalanche vs Detroit Red Wings) NCAAB BACKROOM INFO (MAR 02) - (7:30 MD Eastern Shore +2 vs Howard -2) CBB HUSH MONEY PLAY (MAR 02) - (9:00 Texas Tech +7.5 vs Baylor -7.5)
THE MAC'S TOP RATED RELEASE COLLEGE BASKETBALL RED ALERT PLAYS ARE UNSTOPPABLE THIS YEAR! - Tonight's NCAAB Hush Money Play - NO. Colorado -6 vs Montana State +6 - (Another quiet game + A telling line = CBB CASH $) + MAC's Free MLB Spring Training Picks Today!
(MAR 04) MAC DID THE CRUSHING LAST NIGHT - TONIGHT MAC HAS 1 SPECIAL RELEASE PLAY + 3 RED ALERT PLAYS, ACTION STARTS @ 7:00!
Red Alert Patreon Members now get The MAC'S personal wagers as a units per play system, betting the strongest information and games with odds that have very best optimal value/risk reward. The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure as he will cracking them open and cleaning them out with 3 Red Alerts Picks Tonight! Roland is anticipating a huge CBB day, and Red Alerts Picks are cash in the bank making interest! Premium Play & Top Rated Release earnings are up substantially, College Hoops Plays are more than impressive this year, and tonight's CBB Action is set to go our direction. The MAC has a full card today and he is getting the all the geetus with conviction, he did his homework and is keeping open lines of discourse between his consensus groups and other affiliated player syndicates across the country. There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! (MAR 04) MAC GOT HIS LAST NIGHT - CBB HUSH MONEY ACTION NOW 39-15 FOR THE SEASON - MAC will be getting it done the way it's supposed to be done with 1 Exclusive release game on tap tonight - NCAAB Hush Money Play - 7:00 Massachusetts +1 vs La Salle -1, will be another classic example of why they dub Roland MAC McGuillaman the most venerable betting source on the internet. The MAC has been picking off games all season and March Madness is his specialty, ripping down office pools and NCAAB March Madness Contests is just what the MAC does. LAST NIGHT RECAP - 9:00 - NCAAB Hush Money Pick -Appalachian State -2 vs UL - Monroe +2 (The Mac had a Sun Belt Hush Money play on Appalachian State -2 last night!The Appalachian State Mountaineers got it done with a final of 61-57. These are the quiet games that we have been nailing all season, games that are out of the public betting eye are the easy plays that make MAC's Hush Money Predictions platinum rated across the country.) -\*WINNER*\** The stock market is crashing and MAC's answering back with the very best college basketball sports investments available - MAC has the play at Patreon and on the Red Pass tonight - $25.00 Gets all MAC's Top Rated & Special Release Picks for 1 Month -$25.00 1 Month of all exclusive info CBB picks! Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Seawolves, Gaels, River Hawks, & Governors has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops Hush Money Plays. This will be another game out of the public eye that will produce the quiet profits we expect. We pride our action by bringing the results that keep the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball predictions against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos! Tonight our Top Rated Exclusive Play Members will be getting in onMAC'S NCAAB MAJOR MOVE PLAYon the 8:00 - NCAAB Hush Money Play - Massachusetts +1 vs La Salle -1, plus all of tonight's Red Alert College Basketball & NBA Predictions. THE MAC HAS NBA GAME RED ALERT PLAY -7:00 - Clemson +1.5 vs Virginia Tech -1.5 a highly anticipated CBB Game- A Big 5 UNIT play that holds the value we strive for when researching odds, trends and stats - MAC has been hitting the CBB Action hard and averaging around 72% this year for our CBB betting members.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Tigers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tigers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog.
College Basketball Season is how we're making money, with dozens of games going off it's not easy for the average bettor to find a decent game to bet on, that's what RedAlertWagers.com is here for, we hit the angles and have the resources. Our Sports Consensus Groups are now focused on March Madness and we will be picking off NBA & NHL special release plays as we go! RedAlertWagers.com sports betting predictions are going the distance and there is no finish line!!
The MAC is cocked, locked, & loaded as he has received what people call the industry standard of advice from national sports syndicates and consensus groups across the country MAC's CBB RED ALERTS are only available on Patreon.com and are included in the 1 Day Red Pass!Special Release Play: 10 UNITS7:00 Massachusetts +1 vs La Salle -1RED ALERT PLAYS - 15 UNITS7:00 - Clemson +1.5 vs Virginia Tech -1.57:30 - Morehead State +2 vs Tennessee State -29:30 - Jacksonville State +2 vs Eastern Illinois -2
(MAR 04) Wednesday's Free Special Wager Picks Below! https://preview.redd.it/oenr163yypk41.jpg?width=581&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a11f441ed30a48b9832ad15dc43cf61cd5a064d9 THE MAC'S TOP RATED RELEASE COLLEGE BASKETBALL RED ALERT PLAYS ARE UNSTOPPABLE THIS YEAR! - Last Night's NCAAB Hush Money Play - Appalachian State -2 - (Another mismatch game + A telling line = CBB CASH $) + Free MLB Spring Training Picks Today! Red Alert Wagers SS LLC Exclusive Releases & Red Alert Free Plays exhibit why Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman's reputation as THE PAYMASTER is galvanized in the gambling underworld as a dangerous low key sharp! He doesn't know where you been, but The MACS been dicking down the sports betting game since the Star Dust was the place to get a high end hooker and a cocktail! Baseball is almost back and MAC will be throwing his lucky lean out everyday until opening day! Today's Play - 8:05 Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +105 Spring Training Game! Today's MAC ATTACK Picks are below along with some look ahead Exclusive MMA Releases that are easy money! March Madness is getting closer and MAC has been the man to go to for brackets, bust open your office pools and take all you're dorky co-workers cash with professional top rated March Madness Picks and Vegas tournament grade CBB bracket. RedAlertWagers.comhas revamped the Patreon! -NEWMembership Tiers -$25 1 Monthof MAC'S exclusive information personal wagers, what games to move heavy on and what games to move minor on, play and watch how a professional sports betting expert spreads his units, either you're betting with us or just haven't heard The Roland Roarin Mac McGuillaman ROAR -Join Now - $25.00 Top Rated + Special Release Action Not only is Roland calling games like a savage, The Mac is making record breaking earnings in 2020 - College Hoops Action is now hitting 73% and growing, hunting for the very best selections and odds is time consuming, chasing sharps and getting sportsbook alerts when whales lay heavy is a full time job,RedAlertWagers.comhas been in the sports betting business to be in the sports betting business -PATREON MEMBERSHIPS START @ $7.00 - Red Alert Plays- All Games are released to the public the next day + MAC puts out a daily recap newsletter with free predictions and trends for the best games on the board! **PREMIUM PLAYS*\* Special Release Plays: 10 UNITS NCAAB Hush Money Pick - 7:00 Massachusetts +1 vs La Salle -1 Red Alert Plays: 15 UNITS 7:00 Clemson +1.5 vs Virginia Tech -1.5 7:30 Morehead State +2 vs Tennessee State -2 9:30 Jacksonville State +2 vs Eastern Illinois -2 **DAILY MAC ATTACK FREE PICKS** CBB MAC ATTACK PICK (MAR 04) - (Georgia Tech -6) CBB MAC ATTACK PICK (MAR 04) - (St. Josephs +11.5) NBA MAC ATTACK PLAY (MAR 04) - (Chicago Bulls +3) **FREE DAILY FUN PLAY TEASER & PARLAY PICKS*\* FUN PLAY 2 TEAM MIX GAME PARLAY (MAR 04) - (MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +105 vs NBA - Chicago Bulls +3) Build your own personal player prop-parlay at MyBookieFREE PLAYER PROP PARLAY (MAR 04) - (NBA Giannis Antetokounmpo [email protected] will have more points than Luka Doncic [email protected] and Bradley Beal [email protected] +235) **EARLY INFO FREE RELEASES*\* EXCLUSIVE GOLF EASY MONEY - ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL (MAR 05) - (Hideki Matsuyama +2000) EXCLUSIVE MMA EASY MONEY - UFC 248 (MAR 07) - (Joanna Jedrzejczyk +159) EXCLUSIVE F-1 EASY MONEY - F-1 DRIVERS CHAMPIONSHIP (MAR 12) - (Max Verstappen +500) More Free Plays and Predictions atRedAlertWagers.com
Oh man, this was such a grind but I'm finally done. So I wanted to see how good the "POD's" actually are and what they would be like in the long run. The study was from 07/11/19 to 08/11/19. Here are a few things to keep in mind before looking at the data:
Each Unit is $10
If any of the posts had a large number of people who couldn't find the bet, I excluded it.
If the POD did not have the odds on the post I didn't add it. I wasn't gonna waste my time looking for it.
Obviously, no one in their right mind would go in blindly and tail every single bet on a POD, but I just wanted to see if I did, what would happen?
So what did I learn? Well, POD is a fairly viable place to get some picks and make some money. I think if you actually research (just a little) some of the bets on there, then you can make even more money than what was made in the study. For someone like me who's in college and doesn't have all the time in the world to do my own research, it's a pretty good option. Same goes if you have a really busy life. Another thing to keep in mind. Some days were way better than others, and by way better I mean WAY better. For a small portion of the study, I was down a lot and it was fairly hard to get into the winnings. I think a lot of people have one bad day and never touch it again or just absolutely decimate the people who gave the picks. Speaking of the people who give the POD's. A couple of things I learned while going through a month's worth of posts. The first thing is that just because a post has a super long reason on the pick, DOESN'T MEAN ITS GOOD. I saw so many times where people would write an essay about their pick and half the stuff they said was jibberish or just a normal explanation that they didn't know how to condense. People would see a long explantation and go "TAILING, GOOD EXPLANATION" and the explanation was straight garbage. Of course, sometimes the long ones are actually good but don't count out the little guys. Some of the smaller explanations are just concise and straight to the point, and by looking at the downvotes, I can see that people automatically assume that they don't know what they're talking about. Speaking of downvoting, don't just ignore the posts that have some downvotes. A lot of the times the ones that had a lot of downvotes actually won their bet. It just requires a little bit of research and you can see where they're coming from. Like I said before, I think POD is a fairly viable option to make some money on the side, especially if you have a busy life. But that means to still do a little research and don't hop on the bandwagon of tailing or ignoring a pick. I want to continue to do some studies like this with all of the pages on Sportsbook, but classes are gonna start soon and I don't wanna do it unless others wanna see the results. If you guys actually like this info and want me to do them, just give me which ones you wanna see and ill start. Results: So over the course of a month with $10 bets, I "made" a total of $201.37. In the excel file, I broke it down by Sports, Underdogs, Favorites, etc. Also, some of the sports have things that aren't in it. For example, there were 1 or 2 bets on Japanese baseball, but I just listed it under MLB cause it made it easier that way. You can also see the individual bets and the odds. It was actually pretty interesting to see which sports are the best, and which are the worst. Here is the excel file: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EoYYEdJQGV95potXlzCYHbQ6co-oz7v-TYtskEq3tC4/edit?usp=sharing ROI was 4.9% over 408 bets. MLB: -$2.96, ROI: -0.36% over 74 bets Soccer: $196.75, ROI: 10.52% over 187 bets Tennis: $49.27, ROI: 8.13% over 61 bets Hope this helps some of you guys. I know some of this stuff is obvious, but for those who are just starting it may help!
(Documented) 7-0 through week 8 of the NFL and 4-0 through World Series GM 6-7 We're on fire, tail this streak tonight! 2 Free NFL picks + College football. NHL, NBA, and MMA picks!
!!MAJOR PLAY ALERT!! - (OCT 31) - (SAN FRANCISCO vs ARIZONA OVER 43) Going 2-0 in the MLB Last night and 7-0 in the NFL Last Week ,the Farts are on fire winning 18 out of his 18 Late Info NFL picks and easily winning 23 out his last 25 EXCLUSIVE RELEASE Free Picks!! Make sure you ride this flaming cloud to the bank as tonight Roarin Farts will be getting the geetus without compunction. Grab a life vest and get on the gravy boat as we sail these winners to a new land like Columbus did when Italy wanted Indian flavored marinara sauce!!
Farts has gone hard with his free releases, winning on (OCT 18) with the Late Info Play on(FRESNO STATE-15)
Last nights backroom info play had the Indians crying in their moccasins, McGuillaman and his Vegas affiliates cleaned the sportsbooks out with the undefeated Back Room Info Pick!!! (OCT 24) - (Washington +17) Easy Money
Going 7-0 in the NFL Last Week, Roarin Mac has done it again!! Winning both World Series major play alert releases last night, THE MAC again has something special brewing in the gambling underworld! THE MAC again will break the books.
After winning theMLB major playand theMLB early moneyreleasepick easily, the MAC had the plays that made the odds makers lookamateur! The after shocks are still being felt in Vegas! Roarin Macs associates in Phoenix have green lit a Major Play in the NFL, giving THE MAC no choice but to HAMMER the MAN on tonight's NFL game between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals!! McGuillaman has 2 RED ALERT picks for THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL and a late release 2 team NBA parlay bonus wager pick plus, a NHL FREE PICK, 2 Early Easy Money MMA plays, and aEARLY RELEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL pick that will give you CCE!! McGuillamans associates inPhoenix have signaled to hit the sportsbooks where it hurts, the line mistake on Thursday nights NFL odds are as horrendous asCaitlyn Jenner'sbathroom routines and Tonight Roarin Mac is going to take advantage of the easy opportunity to make cold cash like a Mexican coyote smuggler!!
The MAC has been smashing his free plays harder than a pack of drunken Halloween hooligans chucking pumpkins off of a freeway overpass. Associates are alerting to the Mac that for every Mexican that jumps the border in Arizona tonight, the Cardinals will score a touchdown and the 49ers will reciprocate and score a touchdown for every letter in the gay communities initialism LGBTTQQIAAP. The San Francisco 49ers fans are more than just freedom fighting tech rich liberals who have to wipe the human feces from their doorstep every morning to move a Tesla out of a heated rotating garage to take a Porsche to the cubicle dungeon to work on fruit images for their new cocktail app, nor are the Arizona Cardinals fans that will be at University of Phoenix Stadium a bunch of confused Mexicans that thought football was soccer and needed a place to hide from ICE, they actually care about their teams, they care about their teams more than you could imagine, more than the bum screaming his final vulgarities before using his own shit as a pillow while he sleeps at a bus stop in the Castro, or the wild Mexican throwing his 6 children over a barbed wire fence so he can get to Home Depot before 9 a.m.! THE MAC McGuillaman is telling you toplay OVER 43in tonight's game between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals! -MAJOR PLAY ALERT!! FREE NFL PICK - (OCT 31) - (SAN FRANCISCO vs ARIZONA OVER 43)
The Professional Wrestling world has a been rumbling and Roarin Farts has felt the vibrations in his knickerbockers as of lately!! Ex -Professional amateur street wrestler, Roarin Farts McGuillaman, for the past 4 months has been anticipating some inside information from a couple of squared circle jabroni executives involving a major WWE event!! Farts has just got the word that the green light is lit and the wolves of the gambling world can feast!!!!
CROWN JEWEL FREE PICK(OCT 31) - How Many F5’s Will Brock Lesnar give Cain Velasquez? (Under 5.5 +110) WWE SPECIAL WAGER FREE PICK(APR 05) TYSON FURY TO ENTER THE RING AT WRESTLEMANIA 2020 - (Yes +160) (Wager cut off: 2019 31st October 12:00 PM) Time sensitive, hurry before odds makers realize the mistake they made!! Free MMA Pick (Nov 03) - UFC 244 -(NATE DIAZ +130) Free MMA Pick (Nov 03) - UFC 244 -(STEPHEN THOMPSON -120) Free Entertainment Pick - Betting on religion is a sin but sins pay and Roarin Farts is betting on (CARDINAL NORBERTO RIVERA CARRERA of MEXICO) to be the next pope - BETS ON THE NEXT PERMANENTLY APPOINTED POPE AFTER FRANCIS I. (Wager Cut Off: 2019 31st December 11:00 AM) FREE CELEBRITY DEATH PICK - (BILL COSBY +100) It doesn't take much to find a couple of chubby high end hospice nurses to squeeze some information out of on the morphine levels of a deathbed celebrity. Here are the latest online gambling death picks from Raoarin "MAC" McGuillaman playable at MyBookie.ag and if you're a first time depositor claim a bonus - HERE and throw it on one of these guaranteed picks. WHO WILL DIE FIRST? BETTY WHITE -260 vs CAROL BURNETT +200 Carol Burnett should have died 20 years ago and Betty White is a "OGG" a Original Golden Girl, and OGG's die hard so the decision is easy! CHARLIE SHEEN -200 vs MAGIC JOHNSON +160 The HIV Playoffs are going down between Tiger Blood Chuck and Magic Dick Johnson and this battle will most likely take a little while unless Charlie decides to relapse and we think black men live longer than white drug addicts! The most anticipated free pick! -Bill Cosbyis eating pudding behind bars whileHarvey Weinsteinis getting verbally assaulted by comedians at private events in New York, they both should have did thePolanskiand moved to a place that embraces these types of men, France!
Anyone here use a Martingale system for MLB series?
Thinking of starting a Martingale system for MLB, wanted to see if the consensus is that it’s a dumb idea. Stealing it from a guy in the MLB Daily Discussion who claims to have went 44-0 in series and 44-24 in individual games. So the idea was to bet on heavy favorites for the first game in an MLB series. If they win, I win 1 unit and stop betting on that series. If they lose the first game, bet enough on them in the second game to profit 1 unit after taking game 1’s losses into account. If they lose the second game, repeat for the third game. If my quick mental math is correct, I would need an underdog to sweep a series 1 in 8 times I use this method to not profit, which I find unlikely as I will strictly be betting on clear favorites. This strategy makes sense in my head but as they say, the house always wins. Can someone point out the flaws in my method? I understand that if the favorite gets swept it would be a significant loss in terms of units, but I would chalk that up as a loss and stop increasing my bet amount at the end of the series. Martingale systems seem to go seeing when people keep increasing their bet size to chase losses and hit their bankroll. If I try this strategy, I plan on testing it with units of $2 or $3 to minimize my losses if it doesn’t work out.
On fire winning 10 out his last 12 Exclusive Free Pick releases!! MLB, NCAA, NBA, MMA, and WWE Plays locked and loaded for a amazing week in sports gambling!
Free MLB BACK ROOM INFO Pick (OCT 26) - (NATIONALS -115) The Farts are on fire winning 9 out of his 10 Late Info NFL picks and easily winning 10 out his last 12 Exclusive Free Pick releases!! Make sure you ride this flaming cloud to the bank as tonight Roarin Farts will be getting the geetus without compunction. Grab a life vest and get on the gravy boat as we sail these winners to a new land like Columbus did when Italy wanted Indian flavored marinara sauce!! Farts has gone hard with his free releases, winning on (OCT 18) with the Late Info Play on (FRESNO STATE-15) Cleaning up with his Free NFL Late Info Play on (OCT 13) - (NY Jets over 43.5) Calling it Easy Money in MMA collecting on the underdog (OCT 12) - (Cub Swanson +160) Slow money release in the MLB with his blowout pick! (OCT 14) - (Washington Nationals 8-1) Destroying the line makers with last weeks Late Info Play Free NFL Pick (OCT 20) - (Dallas Cowboys under 49.5) Easy Money Buying your mother a chicken diner with this World Series Game 1 Free MLB Late Info Play WINNER!! (OCT 22) - (Washington Nationals RL -120) Last nights backroom info play had the Indians crying in their moccasins, McGuillaman and his Vegas affiliates cleaned the sportsbooks out with the undefeated Back Room Info Pick!!! (OCT 24) - (Washington +17) Easy Money Bouncing back heavily with a classic release in basketball, winning last nights classic Free NBA Pick (OCT 24) - (ATLANTA HAWKS vs DETROIT PISTONS U 222) Roarin brought home the bacon with his Back Room Info pick (OCT 25) - (Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals U 8) Another Free College Football Pick easy winner (OCT 25) - (COLORADO +12) Roarin has something special brewing in the gambling underworld tonight after winning both Exclusive Free Picks last night easily!! McGuillaman has a line on tonight's College Football game MEMPHIS vs TULSA!! McGuillamans affiliates in Houston have came through with some more backroom information on tonight's WORLD SERIES game between the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros!!!! Free MLBBACK ROOM INFOPick (OCT 26) - (NATIONALS -115) Roarin McGuillaman has got a MLB LATE INFO play ready to release, after confirming with his contacts in Houston he is releasing tonight's exclusive MLB WORLD SERIES GAME 4 pick for free! Take the THE NATIONALS -115, Jose Urquidy and Patrick Corbin are on the mound and the oddsmakers are keeping the money line sharp and low, baiting the Houston degenerates that will go from being in the crowd holding WE BELIEVE signs to holding #MeToo signs in the courtroom after firing misogynist Assistant GM Brandon Taubman. Free NCAA FootballEXCLUSIVE LATE INFOPick (OCT 26) - (MEMPHIS TIGERS -10) Roarin is telling everyone to take Memphis -10. The University of Tulsa athletic teams stink, when Tulsa University hired Dr. Derrick Gragg as their VP Director of Athletics in 2013 they should have converted the whole campus into a mini mall, look for Memphis Tigers to cover this game easily then impregnate the Hurricanes cheerleaders team after the game! Free NBA Pick (OCT 26) - (ATLANTA HAWKS +2.5) Free WWE Professional Wrestling Picks The Professional Wrestling world has a been rumbling and Roarin Farts has felt the vibrations in his knickerbockers as of lately!! Ex -Professional amateur street wrestler, Roarin Farts McGuillaman, for the past 4 months has been anticipating some inside information from a couple of squared circle jabroni executives involving a major WWE event!! Farts has just got the word that the green light is lit and the wolves of the gambling world can feast!!!! CROWN JEWEL FREE PICK(OCT 31) - How Many F5’s Will Brock Lesnar give Cain Velasquez? (Under 5.5 +110) WWE SPECIAL WAGER FREE PICK(APR 05) TYSON FURY TO ENTER THE RING AT WRESTLEMANIA 2020 - (Yes +160) (Wager cut off: 2019 31st October 12:00 PM) Time sensitive, hurry before odds makers realize the mistake they made!! Free F1 Racing Pick (OCT 25) - Roarin Farts has been staying at the same 5 star resort as one of the Formula 1 racer mistresses and has over heard that the outcome of a certain race will be a nail biter so in the FORMULA 1 GRAN PREMIO DE MÉXICO race take - (MAX VERSTAPPEN +400)F1 RESULTS (Wager cut off: 2019 25th October 2:10 PM) Time sensitive, hurry before odds makers realize the mistake they made!! Free MMA Pick (OCT 26) - UFC ESPN+ 20 -(LAUREANO STAROPOLI +150) Free MMA Pick (Nov 03) - UFC 244 -(NATE DIAZ +130) Free MMA Pick (Oct 26) - MMA BELLATOR- Roarin Farts wants you to take - (Douglas Lima -165) Free Entertainment Pick - Betting on religion is a sin but sins pay and Roarin Farts is betting on (CARDINAL NORBERTO RIVERA CARRERA of MEXICO) to be the next pope - BETS ON THE NEXT PERMANENTLY APPOINTED POPE AFTER FRANCIS I. (Wager Cut Off: 2019 31st December 11:00 AM)
Professor MJ’s Sports Betting Strategies: MLB – The Blowout Effect In this article, I am going to answer the following question: When a team blows out an opponent, how do these two teams react in their following game? The results presented in this article come from a dataset containing information about all Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season games from the seven (7) seasons covering the 2010 to 2016 period. In total, we have data on over 17,000 games.
Suppose Team A blows out Team B, which means they win by “x” runs. We consider the following three scenarios:
SCENARIO #1: These two teams meet again the next day. Should we bet on Team A or Team B?
SCENARIO #2: Team A’s next game is against a different opponent, let’s call it Team C. Should we bet on Team A or Team C?
SCENARIO #3: Team B’s next game is against a different opponent, let’s call it Team D. Should we bet on Team B or Team D?
The main objective is to analyze the blowout effect. On one hand, does the team that won by a large margin follow up with a nice performance because of momentum, or does it tend to be sloppier because of overconfidence? How about the team that lost by a wide margin? Is the blowout a wakeup call for them and leads to a razor-sharp performance in their next game, or does it crush their self-confidence?
2. Scenario #1: Team A blows out Team B, and they meet once again the next day
2.1 Basic Exploration Under Scenario #1 Here are the results from placing $1 bets on Team A and Team B the day after the former beats the latter by exactly “x” runs (based on the data from the 2010 – 2016 seasons): See Table 1 This very trivial betting strategy yields very interesting and surprising findings. First of all, betting Team A (i.e. the team that just blew out its opponent) leads to an overall $20.26 profit when the margin of victory was five runs or more. The Return On Investment (ROI) is equal to 0.7% ($20.26 / 3102 games). However, we note that the results are more impressive when considering games following a blow out by 8+ runs. Under such circumstances, we achieved a $49.17 profit over a total of 930 games which corresponds to a non-negligible ROI of 5.3%. That’s a very promising MLB betting strategy that we will scrutinize further. Secondly, betting Team B turns out to be a disaster. This strategy incurs a loss no matter the margin of victory, except if x = 10 (which is probably due to randomness). There is no doubt that we should absolutely avoid backing a team that just got beaten up badly when facing the same rival the next day. 2.2 The Road/Home Split Under Scenario #1 Let’s first break down the results from the table above into two separate cases, depending on whether Team A (the team that won its previous game by a large margin against Team B) plays on the road or at home when facing the same opponent once more. See Tables 2&3 Let’s kick off by highlighting the fact that all of the profit on Team A arises when they are on the road (+$21.60 on the road versus -$1.33 at home). However, a deeper look reveals a compelling finding: the gains are approximately the same on both locations if we focus on the strategy we raised earlier, which consisted of placing a bet only if the margin of victory was eight runs or more (+$28.19 on the road versus +$20.99 at home). As for Team B, backing them leads to a $49.34 loss on the road compared to a $100.12 loss at home. Even focusing on cases where the margin of victory was large, nothing good comes out of it. 2.3 The Odds Split Under Scenario #1 Are there any signs that certain sets of odds provide profitable situations? Let’s assess the role of money lines under the current setting. In order to do so, I have separated the possible money lines into 11 categories. We then look at the profit made within each such category. See Table 4 Based on the table above, it seems like placing wagers on Team A is preferable whenever the money line on Team B is +125 (i.e. 2.25 in decimal format) or less. In terms of the money line on Team A, we are talking about -140 (i.e. 1.714) or more. In plain English, Team A is a better bet if it is either an underdog or a small favorite. Under those conditions, the profit was +$51.85 over 2148 games (ROI = 2.4%). We do not perceive any exciting finding with respect to Team B, except maybe if their money line is above +200 (i.e. 3.00 in decimal format). This limitation provides a +$14.92 gain over 105 games (ROI = 14.2%). The preceding sections advocated betting on Team A whenever the margin of victory was 8 or more. What does the profit look like in this context as a function of the odds? See Table 5 As you can see above, the strategy is profitable across all odds. There does not appear to be any “odds” effect whatsoever. 2.4 The Season Split Under Scenario #1 A good way to gauge a system’s reliability is to check its performance across years. We do not feel good about a particular system if almost all of the gains were made in 1-2 specific year(s). We prefer discovering consistent winnings. Let’s see how it plays out for the current strategy. All indications point towards betting Team A if the margin of victory was 8 runs or more. The road/home split and the odds split both showed that this strategy seemed to work under any circumstances. Let’s see the season-by-season performance: See Table 6 The fact that a good chunk of the gains were made in 2012 is not ideal, but we still notice six winning seasons versus only one losing one. Those are pretty consistent numbers. During the odds split, we raised the possibility of wanting to bet Team B when being big underdogs (i.e. money line above 3.00 in decimal format). Let’s see how the $14.92 gains were distributed across the seven seasons considered in this study: See Table 7 We definitely do not like what we are seeing here: three winning seasons versus four losing ones. I recommend abandoning this idea.
3. Scenario #2: Team A blows out Team B, and Team A’s next game is against a different opponent called Team C
3.1 Basic Exploration Under Scenario #2 Here are the results from placing $1 bets on Team A and Team C when Team A’s most recent game was a win by exactly “x” runs against a different team (still based on the data from the 2010 – 2016 seasons): See Table 8 The first observation is that both propositions (betting Team A and betting Team C) are equally bad from a gambling perspective. As a matter of fact, they both induce a $17-$18 loss. The table above nonetheless suggests a potential winning strategy. More specifically, betting Team C following a 7+-point blowout win by Team A over a different team yields a $20.39 profit over 590 games (ROI = 3.5%). We shall keep this tactic in mind as we refine our analysis in the following sections. 3.2 The Road/Home Split Under Scenario #2 We now break down the results above contingent on the location of the game: See Tables 9 & 10 All of the losses on Team A occurred on the road. When they were playing at home, the majority of the profits were obtained when the margin of victory was 5 or 6, so I do not see anything interesting here (it would be illogical to bet Team A following a 5 or 6-point victory, but staying away after a win by 7+ runs!). I brought your attention earlier to the following potential betting strategy: betting Team C when Team A won its previous matchup (against a different team) by 7 runs or more. The road/home split yields a +$21.07 profit on the road (over 275 games, ROI = 7.7%) versus a -$0.68 profit at home. Therefore, it seems like Team C takes advantage of Team A’s overconfidence, especially when Team A plays in front of its home crowd. 3.3 The Odds Split Under Scenario #2 See Table 11 This scenario has shown thus far that betting Team A was a bad idea. When looking at the previous table, there might be some light at the end of the tunnel: betting this team if their money line was above +150 (i.e. 2.50 in decimal format) led to a +$25.24 profit over 121 games. The ROI therefore stands at 20.9%. Backing Team C has proven profitable so far when the margin of victory was 7+. Omitting temporarily the margin of victory, the table above shows that betting Team C is beneficial when the money line on their opponent is -150 (i.e. 1.667 in decimal format) at most, but even more so if it is -200 (i.e. 1.50 in decimal format) at most. What if we focus on the cases where the margin of victory was 7+? What if we incorporate the fact that Team C must also be on the road? See Table 12 We see pretty clearly how the strategy should be employed particularly when the odds on their opponent was between 0 and 1.50 in decimal format (+$34.58 over 46 games if margin 7+, or +$32.90 over 42 games if margin 7+ and Team C on the road). Let’s be careful about the small sample size though. In terms of the money line on Team C, we therefore require odds +180 (2.80 in decimal format) or higher. More precisely, we generate more gains when Team C is a big underdog. 3.4 The Season Split Under Scenario #2 We brought up four potential strategies under the setting where a team wins easily (Team A) before facing a different team in their next game (Team C). Let’s review the season-by-season profit for each of them. Betting Team C if Team A’s margin of victory in their previous game was 7+: See Table 13 Only 2015 incurred a loss, but it was a fairly big one… Betting Team C if they are on the road and if Team A’s margin of victory in their previous game was 7+: See Table 14 Once again we get decent results: five winning seasons versus two losing ones. Betting Team C if they are on the road, if their money line was 2.80 or higher, and if Team A’s margin of victory in their previous game was 7+: See Table 15 Those are near-perfect results, as all seven seasons led to a positive profit! Betting Team A if their money line was greater than 2.50: See Table 16 The results are mitigated here. We do have five winning seasons versus two losing ones, but two of the profitable years were by a slight margin. As a matter of fact, the 2010-2013 seasons combined for a $4.18 loss, while the 2014-2016 led to a $29.42 gain. That’s not necessarily the type of consistency (or lack thereof) we are looking for. I believe it’s best to omit this strategy.
4. Scenario #3: Team A blows out Team B, and Team B’s next game is against a different opponent called Team D
4.1 Basic Exploration Under Scenario #3 Here are the results from placing $1 bets on Team B and Team D when Team B’s most recent game was a loss by exactly “x” runs against a different team (still based on the data from the 2010 – 2016 seasons): See Table 17 We observe a similar pattern to the previous strategy, where both options seem to be equally poor (a $41.32 loss from backing Team B compared to a $30.27 loss from wagering on Team D). We may still want to examine further a prospective strategy: betting Team B after they were defeated by 11 runs or more against a different opponent. The gain was $16.35 over 78 games; the ROI then equates to 21.0%. We’ll dig deeper, but we are wary of the small sample size here. 4.2 The Road/Home Split Under Scenario #3 Let’s see how the location of the game may or may not affect the gambling outcome: See Tables 18 & 19 Recall how we suggested earlier that it might be a good idea to bet Team B whenever their previous game was a loss by 11 runs or more (when now facing a different team). Despite losing much more when backing Team B on the road, it is good to see how restricting ourselves to the case where the margin of victory was 11+ yields a positive gain, no matter the location (+$8.15 on the road, +$8.20 at home). Meanwhile, all of Team D’s losses occur on the road, but the results at home do not indicate a viable betting strategy since increasing the margin of victory does not lead to better results. 4.3 The Odds Split Under Scenario #3 See Table 20 We do not spot any interesting patterns from the previous table, either from betting on Team B or Team D. Let’s remember, though, that we intended to pay attention to the case where we bet Team B if the margin of victory was 11 or more. What is the performance of this system across all 11 odds categories? The answer can be found below: See Table 21 The phenomenon that stands out is the following: the odds do not matter here. 4.4 The Season Split Under Scenario #3 A single strategy was reported in the case where a team gets blown out (Team B) before facing a new opponent (Team D): betting Team B if they were beaten by 11 runs or more in their previous game. How was the $16.35 profit distributed across the years? See Table 22 The results are not too bad: five out of the seven seasons provided some winnings. Add in the fact that the sample size was fairly small (78 games) and it prompts me to recommend this strategy with caution.
Let’s summarize the findings from this study by describing clearly the betting strategies that seem to offer a promising outlook.
STRATEGY #1: Suppose Team A blows out Team B by 8+ runs. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A.
+$49.17 over 930 games (ROI = 5.3%) Expected profit per season = 7.02 units ($49.17 / 7 seasons)
STRATEGY #2: Suppose Team A blows out Team B by 7+ runs. If Team A’s next game is against Team C, bet Team C (especially if they are on the road and/or their money line is +180 [i.e. 2.80] or higher).
+$20.39 over 590 games (ROI = 3.5%) Expected profit per season = 2.91 units ($20.39 / 7 seasons)
STRATEGY #3: Suppose Team A blows out Team B by 11+ runs. If Team B’s next game is against Team D, bet Team B. Proceed with caution since the results are less convincing.
+$16.35 over 78 games (ROI = 21.0%) Expected profit per season = 2.34 units ($16.35 / 7 seasons) Those three strategies combined are expected to generate a profit of 7.02 + 2.91 + 2.34 = 12.27 units per full MLB season. Accordingly, if your average bet is $100 you should expect to make 12.27 * 100 = $1,227 per year. Thanks for reading! Professor MJ (www.professormj.com) Disclaimer: I am not telling anyone to go out and bet those angles blindly. There are no guarantees in the sports betting world. This article is presenting findings from past data and then trying to find what seem to be potential winning strategies. Bet at your own risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred from such wagers.
MLB UNDERDOG ACCESS. A $100 unit player has averaged over $2,180 playing our Underdog Plays this month in MLB Baseball making us a top rated information service on CapperTek Sports Handicapping Directory.. MLB Underdog Membership Packages start as low as $29.95 An abbreviated season of uncertainty will begin for the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night when they open a three-game weekend series in Tampa Bay as +136 road underdogs on the MLB betting lines at My MLB Betting Model is the heart of my sports betting. Why? Because I estimate the winning percentages for the games and then I calculate my own odds. This is the only way I see how to beat a bookmakers. 3 MLB Underdogs to consider on Tuesday Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks NL Wild Card Betting Preview. Scroll to top. To test this theory on how to bet baseball, we used our Bet Labs software to look through more than eight years of MLB betting data. We first chose to focus solely on underdogs by using the “Favorite/Dog” filter, and then continued by adding our “O/U” filter and steadily increased the total by a half-run starting at 6. Best Baseball Underdog Betting Systems, Formula & Strategies to Profit Last Five Year’s Results. Going back over the last five years (regular season only) you will find the following results for underdogs and favorites: Favorites: 7,4695-5,530 (57.5%) Avg. Line: -142.6 Underdogs: 4,617-6,582 (41.2%) Avg. Line: +136.8
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